Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll adds more weight to the impression of a Labor recovery in Queensland, cutting the LNP’s two-party lead to 52.5-47.5 from the 55-45 the pollster recorded a month ago. The LNP primary vote has nonetheless held steady at 42%, with Labor’s three point gain to 33% drawn from a one-point drop for the Greens to 11% and a two-point drop from others to 6% (possibly influenced by a changing in response options after candidate details became available), while One Nation is steady on 8%. Steven Miles is up four on approval to 45% and down three on disapproval to 48%, and now leads David Crisafulli 45-42 as preferred premier after trailing 46-39 in the last poll. Crisafulli is down six on approval to 43% and up nine on disapproval to 46%. The poll was conducted last Friday through to yesterday from a sample of 1151.
Some further recent horse-race calling:
• The Courier-Mail today relates that “leaked Labor polling” shows the party set to run third in the Townsville seats of Mundingburra (LNP 34.5%, KAP 27.4%, Labor 24.9%) and Thuringowa (LNP 33.4%, KAP 25.1%, Labor 23.7%), both of which they hold, and then deliver victory to Katter’s Australian Party on their preferences. However, it also suggests Stephen Andrew, who has defected to Katter’s Australian Party from One Nation, will struggle in his seat of Mirani to hold off the LNP, whom he trails 40.8% to 21.4%, with Labor on 18.7% and One Nation on 16.5%. It also suggests independent Sandy Nelson will rely on preferences to hold out against an LNP surge in Noosa, trailing 42.0% to 36.9% on the primary vote with Labor on 9.1%.
• On Wednesday, Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail suggested the Labor slump in Townsville may have prompted Rob Katter’s backdown on introducing a bill to wind back liberalised abortion laws, which has caused such grief for the LNP during the campaign. The party’s high hopes for Mundingburra in particular stood to be jeopardised by a conservative line on abortion, given Townsville’s youthful demographic profile. Elsewhere in the Courier-Mail, Madura McCormack reported Labor’s Townsville collapse was confirmed by “sources across all three parties”.
• Former Labor state secretary Cameron Milner, now a lobbyist with a side hustle criticising the party from the right for News Corp, also reckons Katter’s Australian Party “looks the goods in Cook and Mulgrave”, since here too Labor is set to drop to third. Milner also goes so far as to rate that Keppel “has already elected James Ashby” of One Nation. So far as Labor losses to the LNP are concerned, Milner says the Labor casualty list will certainly include Barron River, Mackay, Townsville, Thuringowa, Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, Nicklin, Caloundra and Pumicestone, likely to be joined by Aspley, Mansfield and Redcliffe, with several more besides listed as possibilities.
• Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail further reported Labor’s inner urban recovery meant the Greens had “quietly whittled down to four” its list of target seats from an initial seven, leaving McConnel, Cooper, Greenslopes and Miller as the seats it hopes to add to its existing complement of Maiwar and South Brisbane. “Labor hardheads” go so far as to say “the Greens will crash on election night”, leaving Grace Grace and Jonty Bush intact in McConnel and Cooper. Miller also “isn’t in doubt”, though nothing specifically was said of Greenslopes.
Badthinker
Interesting re Katter vs LNP. In that case I am happy to rate Labor’s chances higher. I still think the LNP will get a small majority, but it won’t be much. If they don’t there could be a Labor minority government.
From a lovely sunny spring day in Melbourne I hope Steven Miles continues as Queensland Premier
https://apple.news/AMJWOSADXSoOtpiWM7SoPzA
A pointer is that KAP are clearly Reactionary, yet Labor never demands LNP put KAP last on their HTVs.
One Nation is a conservative outfit with some muddled policies and flaky candidates, Labor made a huge fuss about them, because ON threatened Labor MPs outside Brisbane.
Incredibly, Borbidge fell for it in 1998, resulting in collapse of National Party vote and 11 ON members elected at the State Election, including in some safe Labor seats.
Conclusion:
Katter Party is not a threat to Labor, was there collusion between ALP and KAP on Robbie Katter’s vow to Repeal the 2018 Abortion Laws?
We’ll never know for sure, but it killed the LNP campaign stone dead, so join the dots.
edit:
We’ll never know for sure, but
it killed the LNP campaign stone dead, 3 days out from PrePoll, so
join the dots.
I now live in South Brisbane seat , Greens seat , you could be forgiven for thinking that there was no election happening , no posters , no candidates at shopping centre’s just some greens pamphlets in the box . Labour and the loosers, nutters and peanuts have left the building .
there wasn’t an LNP person at the polling station .
Hi from Miller, bludgers. Sausages, drinks and cakes being sold at as steady rate here.
The Greens sunk an enormous amount of resources into miller, but I don’t feel they will knock Mark Bailey out.
Channel 9 news last bought made the statement that the more voters see of Chrisafulli, the less they like him. Couldn’t have helped the LNP in Brisbane.
@Kelta
Oh, I drove through Annerley the other day and I saw tonnes of Amy McMahon corflutes. That said, across the city I have definitely seen less corflutes of any colour than in April.
The Greens would tell you that spending the resources in Miller lays the groundwork for winning Moreton. I doubt they ever had a real shot in Miller.
No lame duck leader, deserves the win more than Miles. And it’s not just because he ran the better campaign. His inventive and original policy ideas, especially the groundbreaking 50c fares laid the groundwork and challenged the notion that his was an old, tired government.
I think it will be a nailbiter, akin to 1998 and 2015. The question is if Labor can make it a hat trick. My feeling is that the LNP might just get there in minority, with the support of KAP. But sometimes luck favours the brave. It will be an interesting night.
How well is the independent, Natasha Lane expected to go in Thuringowa – and – where are her preferences directed to? Noting that both ON and the Greens have her before the majors?
Plenty of corflutes for the greens lady in Coorparoo who reminds me of a 1980s comedienne from the ABC tv show big gig.Plenty of Labor as well I have not seen an LNP sign for the Greenslopes LNP candidate who looks to be a dead ringer for scomoe from the pamphlets – scomoe vs the big gig but I think Joe from ALP will prevail.
KAP aren’t putting an LNP minority government together, you can forget that right now.
LNP has to win 47 and they won’t go close.
ALP minority with Greens/Indies support and Katter support if necessary.
With the size of the crossbench up to 14 with Ashby wining Keppel [a cettainty] and possibly more depending on how well the Greens do in Brisbane, Labor could have a net loss of 18 seats and still form a government.
For the statewide 2PP in the more recent polls to match LNP swings in the regions and outer suburbs, it would appear the ALP needs to be maintaining in large parts of SEQ. If that’s the case, given political and demographic shifts (eg Higgins, Maiwar), Clayfield must be in real danger.
Another reason is that the public transport policy would be really popular in the inner city. For the same reason, I don’t think the Greens will win Brisbane Central or Ashgrove.
Another thing, the assumption that the 5 ALP gains of 2020 will all be lost, defies history. Most will have a double sophomore surge worth 3-4% and are in SEQ so might be in regions that don’t swing all that hard anyway.
Cook is very unlikely to fall as it has basically two parts. The indigenous Cape which will likely not follow the general NQ swing pattern, and the northern part of the Atherton Tableland, which is so conservative, that there is probably little swing left in it.
Cairns metro itself may behave differently to what people expect. Barron River is middle class and has been very much a bellwether, so if its close statewide, could be close as well. I think Mulgrave has more chance of falling than the Cairns seat, with a popular sitting member.
Further to, https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/10/24/newspoll-52-5-47-5-to-lnp-in-queensland/comment-page-5/#comment-4389828
Kevin Bonham on X/ Twitter:
uComms Qld poll from yesterday: 51-49 to LNP. Not commissioned. Primaries after reallocating undecided were ALP 33.6 LNP 39.3 Green 12.9 ON 7.8 KAP 2.9 “Other minor party” 3.5. #qldpol
Also of possible interest, this poll has a really large gender gap, I estimate it would be something like M 57-43 F 45-55 on a 2PP basis.
Peterjk23@hotmail.com
Cook is very unlikely to fall as it has basically two parts. The indigenous Cape which will likely not follow the general NQ swing pattern …
The Torres Straits people are very religious and Hopevale is a former Lutheran Mission.
These people are socially conservative, KAP is the only party mirroring them on Abortion, i’d expect Labor vote to collapse there and preferences to elect KAP.
I don’t think there was any collusion between between alp and kap.
But the kap move evidenced a amount of intelligence I did not think existed.
Their aim was to stop a overwhelming lnp win back to a minority govt if possible and deal them selves into the action.
The fact that it helped Labor as well was collateral damage. They must have known how The lnp would react
The fact that it helped Labor as well was collateral damage. They must have known how The lnp would react
Course they did.
So, having denied LNP any chance of Majority government, why would you think KAP would support an LNP minority government?
I’ll say it. Greens won’t win Moreton.
And the Greens might lose Griffith. MCM’s shtick isn’t a popular as he thinks it is.
I was wondering why the LNP released ads attacking the greens several weeks ago. They were carrying on about legalising heroin and letting off serious criminals with a slap on the wrist. It’s just dawned on me that Nichols and the guy in Moggill may be in real strife? And maybe Everton and Chatsworth?
We know that most LNP MPs will vote to re-criminalise abortion if Katter introduces a bill. Crisafulli can’t hide from this.
Dutton’s false claim that the abortion issue is not swinging votes is very John Howard like. He’s clearly learned a lot from the lying rodent.
I was wondering why the LNP released ads attacking the greens several weeks ago. They were carrying on about legalising heroin and letting off serious criminals with a slap on the wrist. It’s just dawned on me that Nichols and the guy in Moggill may be in real strife? And maybe Everton and Chatsworth?
@Princeplanet
LNP choose the wrong candidates in Brisbane generally. Steve Minnikin is a genuine moderate which is one of the reasons Labor can’t topple him in Chatsworth. But Christian Rowan a former National party candidate in Moggill is just the wrong fit. He spoken previously of guaranteeing winding back abortions laws, and he has also supported the death penalty. LNP candidates in Redcliffe, Springwood, Stretton, and Oodgeroo have voiced there strong opposition to abortion. There would be others in the woodworks that have view privately too but their keeping quiet about it.
G’day lads. With how this whole election has gone, I don’t know how the story unfolds tonight, but all I can say is, keep the popcorn ready…
Pol. Nightwatchman: all of these seats especially Nichols are on thin margins. Nichols and Minnikin did vote for the abortion bill so that might cushion them?
@ badthinker
I don’t know but I don’t assume they are trying to help Labor either.!
Maybe they want the kap to be dealt into the game of choosing the winner?
I heard the lnp candidate in Redcliffe is a poor candidate.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/10/queensland-2024-election-night-live.html
Queensland 2024 Election Night Live.
Live comments from 6 pm Qld time. Postcount coverage in coming days
Also I have the primaries from the uComms here: https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/10/queensland-narrows-in-final-days.html
The final AE forecast updated today is very close to Kevin Bonham’s assessment – for some unknown reason it’s 1 seat short :
2PP: 52.4%-47.6%
LNP -47 (41.1%)
ALP – 37 (32.9%)
KAP – 4
GRN – 3 (10.7%)
IND – 1
It rates the LNP a 57% chance of a clear path to govt and 17% for ALP. 25% chance of no clear winner.
https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2024qld/regular
Pol. Nightwatchman: all of these seats especially Nichols are on thin margins. Nichols and Minnikin did vote for the abortion bill so that might cushion them?
@Princeplanet
Probably. I’d be surprised the LNP lose any of their existing seats in Brisbane. Paul Williams said the difference this election to 2012. Is Campbell Newman made a ‘blitz’ in Brisbane, but this election the LNP are looking for a ‘incursion’ in Brisbane. Maybe similar to Rob Borbidge gaining Greenslopes, Mansfield, Mount Ommaney, Redlands, Springwood and Albert in 1995.
QLD Voters especially women voters.
Regarding Abortion:
Please note that you know what is best for your body.
Don’t allow people like Badthinker, FUBAR and QLD government to demand or dictate what you should do with your body.
Badthinker says: if Abortion law is not regulated women will want “Abortion on demand”. Badthinker is insulting you by saying that you want Abortion at your whom, not when it is necessary
FUBAR says Abortion should be “safe, rare and legal”
The key words from that rare and legal i.e. if Abortion rights are regulated they will become rare and legal. Then anything beyond that legal parameters, Abortion becomes illegal.
Please keep that in mind when you vote if you have not already voted.
QLD women, QLD LNP doesn’t trust you to take care of your bodies
Here’s hoping Banana Benders choose a Labor government before the day goes.
After reading Ven’s post two posts above this one I came to an observation.
Why is it most forums on the internet are so pro labor?
I have been in quite a few Australian based forums over the years and where they allow politics, most are quite pro labor forums, this one included? I have only come across one that is not for about the dozen that are. It would be worthy of study as to the reasons why.
We know that the labor inclined would tend to be more emotionally involved in their decision making, they are going to tend to be in occupations where communications and society would make up a greater part of their lives. Think thinks like law, gender, humanities, communications, etc.
The further away from there you move into more logical decision making. Think real science, engineering etc.
Voted at Green booth in Miller.
Few are taking ALP HTVs, more Greens, about half aren’t taking anything, plus there was a crowd waiting for the booth to open this morning.
Usually that indicates the swing is on.
Coupled with the earlier comment that LNP hasn’t manned or even decorated a booth in South Brisbane, it’s likely that they’ve prioritised their resources into Seats they can win and then seats they’ve targeted for 2028.
———————————————-
Robbie Katter quoted in the Courier-Mail as saying he’s open to negotiating with either party in the event of a hung parliament, infrastructure in North Qld will be on the agenda, but changes to the 2018 Abortion Laws won’t be.
Make of that what you will, am also told that 50% of enrolled voters had already cast a vote before today.
Jolly Jumbuck
I have only come across one that is not for about the dozen that are. It would be worthy of study as to the reasons why.
Liberal Party voters have better things to do with their time?
My impression is at least some of these pro Labor commenters are paid.
————————————————–
The other observation, from reading Catallaxy Files for years, is that many of the regular commenters on there attacking the Liberal Party from the Right Wing perspective show up on other blogs under [mostly] different monikers attacking the Liberal Party from the Left.
Late betting pointing to a hung parliament. May be an unhappy night for me. 🙁
Anything but that and I’m comfortable.
Just voted in Maiwar at Rainworth booth, lots of people ignoring LNP HTVs. Only one Labor member present, about 10 Greens and 6 LNP.
A vote for Greens is a vote for Labor in Maiwar?
No surprises there.
Hello David : I seem to remember Labor were at like 17 dollars for the win in 2015 to form government. Don’t trust ye betting markets. Still most likely a LNP victory
Bandbane: G’day mate, got the beer and snacks ready for tonight. Hoping we might get into hung parliament territory and then it really gets wacky!
Getting on the beers with the Labor lads here would be awesome.
Princeplanet: If Labor is winning something like 35 seats or better, that’s remarkable, considering at the start of the campaign the expectation was they’d be struggling to get past 20.
And how well KAP does tonight – that is the big mystery.
Dandy Murray
“ Channel 9 news last bought made the statement that the more voters see of Chrisafulli, the less they like him. Couldn’t have helped the LNP in Brisbane.”
————————————————————————————————-
Speaking as an interested observer from SA I can only comment on Crisafulli’s TV interviews. At first he seems clean cut, fresh faced and cheerful. A good leadership candidate.
But once you listen to him a few times it all seems quite shallow. I don’t mean to say Crisafulli is cynical or corrupt. He just doesn’t show much substance. They may present him as a leader but does not act like one.
The longer the campaign has gone on the more painful has been his avoidance of questions like conscience votes on abortion. He sounds almost nervous repeating his obviously rehearsed answers.
Whereas Miles has been:
1. Energetic
2. Unfailingly positive (not easy every day for four weeks straight)
3. Focused on measures in areas that his government control to help with cost of living, the most critical current issue.
Its a good lesson for others.
Federal Labor has a lot to learn from how well Miles has ran this campaign. Miles reenergised a quite old Labor government in the public eye with effective measures that made a difference in peoples lives, and Albo needs to do the same to avoid minority gov.
My goodness betting markets reacting to external forces like polling … almost like they don’t really know anything more than the rest of us?
😉
Liberal Party voters have better things to do with their time?
My impression is at least some of these pro Labor commenters are paid.
@Badthinker
Ha! Crap. The Newscorp comments sections are 95% Liberal. It’s actually kind of funny reading those comments. The amount of times in the Courier Mail section they have predicted a Qld Labor state government demise. Only for Labor to be re-elected election after election after election shows how far they are from realty. Even the comments sections here most have predicted the best result for Labor is a narrow loss. No one is really suggesting a Labor victory including the one’s putting the best spin on it for Labor. The loss in the regions is going to be too great, that they won’t be able to be countered by making gain’s elsewhere.
Ah Democracy Sausage, I’ll just have to settle for an non-alcoholic drink. Thanks for the kind words!
”
Jolly Jumbucksays:
Saturday, October 26, 2024 at 2:21 pm
After reading Ven’s post two posts above this one I came to an observation.
Why is it most forums on the internet are so pro labor?
I have been in quite a few Australian based forums over the years and where they allow politics, most are quite pro labor forums, this one included? I have only come across one that is not for about the dozen that are. It would be worthy of study as to the reasons why.
We know that the labor inclined would tend to be more emotionally involved in their decision making, they are going to tend to be in occupations where communications and society would make up a greater part of their lives. Think thinks like law, gender, humanities, communications, etc.
The further away from there you move into more logical decision making. Think real science, engineering etc.
”
Jolly
BTW, I have a Master’s degree in Engineering and I have Computer science post graduate certificate. So I am real science guy. I make a lot of my decisions based on logic.
I like data and analysis is mostly based data at hand. So, people who think they know what other people are, should be very careful what they think.
Personally, I don’t support Abortion on demand as Badthinker puts it. However, I have a daughter and I want my daughter to make decisions about her body in her best interest because she knows what is best for her body. If you don’t understand that simple concept of freedom for a fellow human being and I don’t know what to say.
And people like who complain budget debt and deficit, economy going down drains under Labor government, where were your complaints when Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison left about 1 trillion dollar deficit for future generations.
As far as I can remember, you never complained about on PB.
Now, who is producing surplus after surplus every year at federal level. It is ALP government. Who left 1 trillion dollar deficit? LNP government.
Who gave away Billions of dollars to businesses like Harvey Norman even when they don’t need it without accountability? Morrison LNP government. But QLD LNP got 21 out of 30 seats in 2022 federal election. Who voted for them. It is queenslanders like you, I presume.
Bandbane: non-alcoholic is fine, it’d be nice to have something to celebrate with whatever drink you prefer, from a Labor perspective of course. Even a small LNP majority would be a decent result in my eyes, although of course I really want Miles to get another 4 years in government, because I think with more time, he’d become a really great Premier.
There are a few engineers who post on pollbludger.
I like to think we can be literate as well as numerate.
Are prepolls being counted tonight?
And do we know what the final percentage of prepolls is?