Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll adds more weight to the impression of a Labor recovery in Queensland, cutting the LNP’s two-party lead to 52.5-47.5 from the 55-45 the pollster recorded a month ago. The LNP primary vote has nonetheless held steady at 42%, with Labor’s three point gain to 33% drawn from a one-point drop for the Greens to 11% and a two-point drop from others to 6% (possibly influenced by a changing in response options after candidate details became available), while One Nation is steady on 8%. Steven Miles is up four on approval to 45% and down three on disapproval to 48%, and now leads David Crisafulli 45-42 as preferred premier after trailing 46-39 in the last poll. Crisafulli is down six on approval to 43% and up nine on disapproval to 46%. The poll was conducted last Friday through to yesterday from a sample of 1151.
Some further recent horse-race calling:
• The Courier-Mail today relates that “leaked Labor polling” shows the party set to run third in the Townsville seats of Mundingburra (LNP 34.5%, KAP 27.4%, Labor 24.9%) and Thuringowa (LNP 33.4%, KAP 25.1%, Labor 23.7%), both of which they hold, and then deliver victory to Katter’s Australian Party on their preferences. However, it also suggests Stephen Andrew, who has defected to Katter’s Australian Party from One Nation, will struggle in his seat of Mirani to hold off the LNP, whom he trails 40.8% to 21.4%, with Labor on 18.7% and One Nation on 16.5%. It also suggests independent Sandy Nelson will rely on preferences to hold out against an LNP surge in Noosa, trailing 42.0% to 36.9% on the primary vote with Labor on 9.1%.
• On Wednesday, Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail suggested the Labor slump in Townsville may have prompted Rob Katter’s backdown on introducing a bill to wind back liberalised abortion laws, which has caused such grief for the LNP during the campaign. The party’s high hopes for Mundingburra in particular stood to be jeopardised by a conservative line on abortion, given Townsville’s youthful demographic profile. Elsewhere in the Courier-Mail, Madura McCormack reported Labor’s Townsville collapse was confirmed by “sources across all three parties”.
• Former Labor state secretary Cameron Milner, now a lobbyist with a side hustle criticising the party from the right for News Corp, also reckons Katter’s Australian Party “looks the goods in Cook and Mulgrave”, since here too Labor is set to drop to third. Milner also goes so far as to rate that Keppel “has already elected James Ashby” of One Nation. So far as Labor losses to the LNP are concerned, Milner says the Labor casualty list will certainly include Barron River, Mackay, Townsville, Thuringowa, Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, Nicklin, Caloundra and Pumicestone, likely to be joined by Aspley, Mansfield and Redcliffe, with several more besides listed as possibilities.
• Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail further reported Labor’s inner urban recovery meant the Greens had “quietly whittled down to four” its list of target seats from an initial seven, leaving McConnel, Cooper, Greenslopes and Miller as the seats it hopes to add to its existing complement of Maiwar and South Brisbane. “Labor hardheads” go so far as to say “the Greens will crash on election night”, leaving Grace Grace and Jonty Bush intact in McConnel and Cooper. Miller also “isn’t in doubt”, though nothing specifically was said of Greenslopes.
I think Joe will win ajm, he’s good bloke!!! To think Cameron Dick used to be our member before 2012. I’m starting to think Labor will win as well!!!
From Mr Antony Green’s update earlier today:
“(UPDATED Friday 25 October 12:30pm – with one day of pre-polling to go. Totals now at 1,385,588 early votes representing 37.6% of enrolment have been taken, up from 33.2% to the same day in 2020. Applications for postal votes have closed and the rate of applications is down from 26.8% in 2020 to 18.8% in 2024. So far 33.9% of postal votes have been returned.)
“Of the 905,806 applications in 2020, 766,478 were returned representing 84.6% of dispatched postal vote packs. In total 709,128 postal votes were admitted to the count representing 78.3% of dispatched postal vote packs.”
Will any of those postal votes already returned get examined / counted tomorrow night?
My Final Prediction which has come down from the start of the Campaign LNP 56, ALP 29, GRN 4, KAP 3 and IND 1
LNP lose Ipswich West to ALP
ALP lose to LNP Bundaberg, Nicklin, Hervey Bay, Caloundra, Barron River, Townsville, Thuringowa, Mundingburra, Redlands, Aspley, Pumicestone, Cairns, Keppel, Redcliff, Mackay, Pine Rivers, Mansfield, Gaven, Springwood, Rockhampton and Capalaba
ALP lose to GRN Cooper and McConnell
KAP lose to LNP Mirani
Thought at start of campaign much larger LNP Majority as most people thought. Think ALP 29 Seats is minimum and can go up 1-5 Seats if late surge increases their election day result. Looking from Adelaide it was a very bad campaign for the LNP and a good on by ALP but that is going by Normal Media and Social Media. LNP will need a strong local ground campaign on election day otherwise it might be a Minority Government. ALP best result will be a ALP/GRN/KAP Minority Government.
The internal Labor polling of Townsville seats looks like BS to me KAP will finish 3rd in all 3 Seats and their preferences elect LNP candidates over ALP. LNP vote should be high as LNP Leader comes from up there or do they have a grudge ? that he left for a safer seat on the Gold Coast.
All the above is my prediction but could be all wrong.
Good Evening Comrades & Others,
I reiterate the issue with the LNP vs ALP primary vote.
On what I am looking at, particularly in the context of the YouGov poll, is there appears to be around a 10% drop in ALP primary in the Brisbane suburbs and regional towns (far less in others – and apparently more or less nothing in Brisbane city areas). In turn, there are sizable increases in LNP vote in the Brisbane suburbs (8-9%) and regional towns (above 10%).
This talk that the LNP could be mainly gaining in their own areas is far too optimistic and I cannot see it in the polling. The LNP primary increases are showing as higher in the suburbs and regional towns than the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and rural.
Re: Cook. I think you will find the boundaries have changed since the stronger Labor days. It even now includes parts of the old Tablelands like Mareeba. Tablelands was One Nation’s last stand before the more recent resurgence.
I am currently staring at 28 ALP, 58 LNP, 2 Green, 4 Katter (no Mirani but throw in Cook), 1 Independent. With, of course, a wish that the ALP number actually arrives in the 30’s.
Also not so sure the ALP is stupid enough to sign up for a Kattering. Well done LNP. Maybe pick some other play pals next time.
And I am on a “certain electorate in the broad area south of Brisbane” tomorrow 🙂
Re internal polling
Is normally only released when it is of benefit to the party releasing it.
But it is plausible of the 3 Townsville seats that the alp primary votes may drop.by more than 10% if that is the case then it depends on where the votes go to kap or lnp or both. If the final 3 are lnp kap & alp then. Kap could win unless the lnp get close to 50% of the vote. If that happens then I guess that kap will win 1 to 2 seats the lnp thought they had in the bag.
11th hour LNP duplicity
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/25/queensland-election-david-crisafulli-lnp-crime-numbers-policy
I’m still sticking to my 52 seats for the Coalition although my confidence level has taken a hit in the last few days.
@ bogan
You are basing this on a 55/45 poll but there are 3 later polls which evidence a tightening. Add say 2 to 3 % to the alp 2pp then you are potentially in minority government territory. I reckon there is a 50/50 chance of a hung parliament.
Fargo61says:
8:00 pm
Will any of those postal votes already returned get examined / counted tomorrow night?
No.
Postal/Declaration Counting starts Tuesday.
The last 2 State Elections, PrePoll has been counted Sunday morning, though not at a polling booth.
——————————————————
LNP 41
ALP 38
KAP 7
Greens 4
Ind. 2
One Nation 1
ALP government with KAP and Indies guaranteeing confidence and supply
edited
@ David
You might well be right but there is nothing between 52 seats and a hung parliament
I thought they were counting pre-polls on Saturday night now?
Mick I know and it might seem crazy but haven’t changed my guess since polls were showing 55/45. Always expected some level of tightening.
ECQ are saying all available votes will be counted commencing 6pm Saturday
https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/18027/fact-sheet-counting-the-votes-v1.3.pdf
This explains the process well.
I think you are about right, Bogan. I’m thinking about 30 seats for the ALP, mid-fifties LNP, Katter to lose Mirani to the LNP, who knows what will happen in Cook.
Rather than most LNP increase in support happening in safe LNP seats, i think we are going to find Miles has mostly increased support in left-leaning city seats and the late comeback isn’t going to have actually resulted in as much shift in final count in parliament as many are predicting. I’m figuring Miles has probably saved a few outer metro seats from the LNP, and a couple from the Greens.
I doubt there has been this level of tightening at a qld election in recent times since 1992 but if it is not correct there is a huge polling error greater than 3%
@Mick
For better or for worse, here are my base assumptions behind my seat estimates:
ALP 47% TPP, 32% primary
LNP 53% TPP, 41% primary
Greens 11% primary
Katter 5% primary (dummy figure)
Other 11% primary
The main reason I refer to the YouGov is the trends that it shows of where swings are happening- unless the underlying trends there have changed significantly, the biggest movement is in the outer suburbs and regional towns (not the LNP heartland).
There are some weird things I still cannot reconcile. One is what on earth is happening with Katter. Another is that is it suggests that the ALP might actually go slightly forwards in some inner Brisbane areas; that will be fascinating if it happens.
@ the wombat
I think mathematics may well say what you said is not possible unless there are some pro labor swings in some inner city seats.
There has been a tightening of roughly 3%.
I am not sure of this . Just my gut instinct
I also predicted 34 seats for Labor and happy to stick with that. So 52 Coalition, 34 Labor and don’t really care how the rest break. That’s seems to be reasonable given 52.5-52/47.5-48 2PP.
I assuming that uPoll is a touch Labor biased just because I want it to be. 🙂
The Katters have had a huge influence by besting the lnp tactically . They have potentially dealt themselves into government whilst having only 4 to 7 seats
They have shown the fault lines of the lnp in terms of trust and competence
I don’t know their motivation is it to maintain their seats. or have a go at the old nats of the lnp ?
Maybe it is a bit of both.
Mick, that’s exactly what I am saying. I think Miles has probably been most effective at getting people already in inner city seats to vote ALP. By doing so, he’s probably saved a seat or two from the Greens, and I think maybe a seat or two from the LNP in the ‘burbs. Absolutely, i think some safe inner city seats are actually going to swing further to the ALP, I’ve been making that prediction for months. But I don’t think he’s really budged the dial very much in the swing seats. Regional, I don’t think there’s been much movement at all. I don’t think we have enough polling data to know what’s happening in outer metro areas. I’m figuring Miles probably has significantly reduced the swing in some of these seats.
It’s very hard to extrapolate how the Katter MPs will go based on statewide polling, as their support is so concentrated within certain parts of North Queensland.
Apart from their debut in 2012, when they got a primary vote of over 11% (I imagine benefitting heavily from the collapse in Labor’s vote), all state election since then has seen them wobbling between the 2-3% mark… and, as an example of just how locally concentrated their vote is, they’ve won more seats in those later elections than they did in their high watermark of 2012!
Anything could happen tomorrow, from LNP comfortable majority to ALP being able to form minority government. I can’t predict but I can say that Miles has outperformed Crisifulli. If Crisifulli becomes Premier he will be under immediate pressure to deliver on his one issue of crime and if he doesn’t things will go pretty bad pretty quick. A nightmare scenario is small majority and fractious grouping. My tip in the wash up is 50 seats LNP .
I’m thinking the most likely outcome tomorrow ( ~75% chance) will be an LNP govt but feeling like they may end up being in a minority position, I’ll just take a stab that they land on 43 seats. Wouldn’t be shocked to see any result between LNP majority and Labor majority. Should be much more interesting than it looked like it would be even a week ago.
ABC explainer on why using crime and victim numbers instead of crime and victimisation rates is misleading.
Unsurprisingly it’s because population numbers impact crime & victim numbers. Higher population increases total number of crime and victims, while rates effectively measure a per capita level of crime.
That’s why even when the crime rate decreases, the total crime or total victim numbers can still increase (as we have now), but you and your family will still be LESS LIKELY to be a victim of crime.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-25/youth-crime-statistics-using-data-incorrectly/104488958
The Katter statement about criminalisation of abortion has been badly received by women across Queensland. Spread like wildfire on young social media according to a 20yo female I know. KAP will cop it.
Will be interesting to see how this cohort follow how to vote cards that ask for No2 to be LNP.
The fact that Crucifooli ducked and weaved when the statement was first made has done L/NP no favours.
Trumps behaviour in USA with Roe v Wade had our population exposed to what any meddling with womens health could lead to. If something is not part of the plan, why is it still in L/NP party policy. Are you scared of adverse reaction from your members who do not believe your party should reflect the wishes of the majority? Can’t have two masters.
At some stage maybe political parties should have to release costings the day before pre poll starts. About a third of the electorate does not want to vote on polling day. They are entitled to know more details than have been provided by L/NP this time.
A primary vote of 42% will see L/NP forming Govt next week. Labor will do better than looked probable a few weeks back.
Predict:
Labor 50 seats (-2)
LNP 36 (+ 2)
Others 7 (NC)
“A primary vote of 42% will see L/NP forming Govt next week.”
But how likely is a primary vote of 42% now? That was giving them a 2pp of 52.5%.
If it’s 50% when it’s all washed up, as something around that seems likely, what primary vote will that be and how many seats will that yield?
50% 2pp means about a 3% swing to the lnp. It makes it more possible for Labor to defend seats. The range is similar to a 3% margin from majority to minority for either party. It would be possible that Labor loses less than 6 seats.
This I think would be too good a result for labor
I think the LNP are more likely than not to get over the line tomorrow, but I am increasingly entertaining vague hopes that the government might be able to scrape through to reelection.
My seat predictions, based mostly on gut feeling, wishcasting, and valiant attempts to suppress said wishcasting.
LNP: 48 (+13)
ALP: 38 (-14)
Greens: 3 (+1)
KAP: 4 (+1)
One Nation: 0 (-1)
Independent: 1 (-)
LNP to gain Bundeberg, Nicklin, Hervey Bay, Coloundra, Barron River, Townsville, Thuringowa, Mundingburra, Pumicestone, Cairns, Keppel, Mackay, and Gaven
Greens to gain either McConnell or Cooper.
Sandy Bolton and the Katter boys to retain their seats, with Stephen Andrew winning Mirani for KAP
End result being a mild LNP majority.
The (probably much too) optimistic scenario would see Labor retaining some combination of Pumicestone, Cairns, Keppel, Mackay, and Gaven, not losing any seats to the Greens, and winning Clayfield and / or Everton off of the LNP, putting them in a position to govern in minority or possibly even with a bare majority.
* Of those, I think Gaven’s least likely to fall, given the large margin and a strong local member, though I suspect Goldie is also going to be rough for the ALP this time around. Cairns (and even Barron River) may prove a pleasant surprise too.
I was struck when I checked, how very, very few Labour MPs are standing down in losable seats – and about 5 (mostly the very marginal seats) are 1st time incumbents.
This hugely informed my prediction of a Labor maj above.
52.5% for the LNP still makes it most likely we will see an LNP majority unless they receive an excess of votes in places like the gold coast where right now quite a few of their seats are very marginal and other regional seats where either Labor will lose with big swings and or the LNP will increase margins with big swings. Labor has only nine seats with margins under 5% and thirty seats sitting at around the 10% mark and above. I still think we will be seeing an LNP seat count at around 50 which is a clear majority if not the resounding triumph that it looked like only a few months ago. The fact that I could be wrong and Labor could still hang on is quite incredible and at least gives we ALP supporters some heart and also the promise that we will have a muscular opposition which will really take the fight up to the LNP.Fingers crossed that my assessment is wrong.
G’day Princeplanet and Laborites in general – fingers crossed that tonight might bring a result far closer than anyone might have expected even a week ago.
Good luck to those working at polling booths today.
If anything this election campaign has shown to me is how our society has changed to embrace welfare and in fact expect and demand it.
I would think if forty years ago a politician told parents they were that bad at parenting the state has to step up to feed their children, that would go down like a lead balloon. But today such a policy seems to have been a vote winner.
Labor’s campaign seems to have mostly been about more welfare, with the state paying for this, that and the other, all paid for by borrowing and taxing others. Queensland has a bleak future if this trend continues.
I know prediction is for mugs. Anyways, here is my prediction (nadia, where are you?)
LNP: 40%
ALP: 33%
Greens: 11%
Remaining: Rest
LNP: 45-48
ALP:35-37
Greens: 2
Remaining: Rest
Thanks DS, a good exercise to prepare yourself for a loss is to look back at posts from earlier in the year. It looked like a tsunami was coming. Having been in the public service during the tumultuous Cando Newman it is scary to think we were facing more of the same. The fact that Miles and a unified Labor team has got us thinking they could almost pull off a miracle is something we can hold on to. Miles has not only looked like Beattie pt.2 he has also damaged Crisifulli’s standing and popularity even before he becomes Premier ( if indeed he does) . A close result tonight could result in a Beattie style ALP landslide in the not too distant future.
Ven: I can see your prediction coming true. Crisifulli said no minority government but he is full of it, having just slid out of his crime resignation pledge. He will walk that back in a second if he has 45-46 seats and Katter guarantees supply. David is correct in saying this would be the LNPs worst outcome ensuring chaos and confusion until an inevitable election in the not too distant future. However I realise that it is still possible that the LNP will win easily, the fact we are considering these scenarios shows how bad the whole LNP campaign has been and how impressive Miles has been.
If Labor can finish up with a seat total in the mid-high 30s, I’ll call that a pretty miraculous result, considering only a few weeks ago pundits and the punters here were predicting a 2012 like wipeout. If that eventuates, full credit to Steven Miles, who I totally underestimated when he became Premier, and on that basis, he’d be entitled to stay on as Labor leader. And Cameron Dick has run rings around his counterpart in the LNP.
Fingers crossed for 2 Labor MPs I know a little bit – Mark Bailey in Miller, who I think will be OK, and Rob Skelton in Nicklin, who will most likely lose his seat, despite all his hard work over the last 4 years, he’s a stellar bloke.
Thank you to democracy sausage sellers, to the how to vote hander outerers and the door knockers and the phone callers, and to all those public servants who run the election and who make our democracy functional and durable.
And may Labor, the best team, win!
Yeah definitely fingers crossed for those two candidates. Nicklin will be tough but I think Mark Bailey will be safe. If he’s not we are in a for a rough night. All the best DS and even a result in the high twenties is better than 2012.
Boerwar: Good morning mate, Labor all the way too from me, true believers we both are, as is the mighty Princeplanet too!
Steven Miles – gotta admire him, and he’s got a whiff of Peter Beatie about him, same sort of smile and optimism and ability to talk to people.
PrincePlanet: ditto about Mark Bailey in Miller, top bloke, he’ll ward off the Greens, who are more his opponents there than the LNP.
Fingers crossed for a miracle Boerwar, a win will be one to celebrate but not with hubris. My thoughts are that the LNP has not outlined enough detail to deserve government and how they are a jump into the dark. Miles takes a large measure of popularity into the next parliament no matter what the result tonight he has done a great job!!!! He is Beattie pt 2.
Miles has not had a great campaign, he’s an embarassing dope.
The campaign was lost for LNP on October 9 when Katter announced his private members bill to make abortion illegal again.
The weak response exposed Crisafulli as a fraud, and it was all over.
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Liberal Party candidate selection left a lot to be desired, then there’s the issue of running dead in Katter seats, running dead in South Brisbane and who knows how many other seats they’re not trying in?
A remarkable feature of the Qld election in Nth Qld is the continuation of the Katter dynasty, dispensing “free lunch monies, advice and platitudes ” to the voters around their chosen electorates offering the special lucky dip prizes contained in those “doffed” hats together with the ready “folksie” wit.
(And along comes Baddie to emphasise the phonomena that is Katter)
Good luck today Qld bludgers. The odds are still an LNP victory but Miles has done a great job in the campaign getting Labor more competitive and also exposing how weak Crisafuli seems.
I am not close enough to Qld politics to make a seat by seat count. I will predict a narrow LNP majority (<5 seats) or an LNP minority government (with Katter) but I’d be delighted to be wrong. I think Labor will keep at least 30 seats.
LNP are not governing with Katter support.
If they can’t win 47, they’re not governing at all.
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Labor shills on here keep trying to pair Katter and the LNP in readers minds, the reality is Katter has never helped the LNP and he never will.
———————————————-
Sure, Crisafulli did some preferece deal with Katter in 3 Townsville area seats, which illustrates what a clown he is, since Katter voters don’t follow the HTVs strictly and it’s probably helped KAP into 2nd place in a swag of seats courtesy of an increased PV from otherwise LNP voters and victory thanks to disciplined Labor preferences.
———————————————–
Not the finest hour for Full Preferential Voting, imo.
davidwh – Thankyou for your response last night about the vote counting this evenimg. And a big tick for the ECQ, that is a very clear, concise, explanatory document.