Newspoll: 52.5-47.5 to LNP in Queensland

Newspoll ends the campaign with Labor’s strongest poll result of recent memory, potentially putting a formerly ascendant LNP in minority government territory.

Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll adds more weight to the impression of a Labor recovery in Queensland, cutting the LNP’s two-party lead to 52.5-47.5 from the 55-45 the pollster recorded a month ago. The LNP primary vote has nonetheless held steady at 42%, with Labor’s three point gain to 33% drawn from a one-point drop for the Greens to 11% and a two-point drop from others to 6% (possibly influenced by a changing in response options after candidate details became available), while One Nation is steady on 8%. Steven Miles is up four on approval to 45% and down three on disapproval to 48%, and now leads David Crisafulli 45-42 as preferred premier after trailing 46-39 in the last poll. Crisafulli is down six on approval to 43% and up nine on disapproval to 46%. The poll was conducted last Friday through to yesterday from a sample of 1151.

Some further recent horse-race calling:

• The Courier-Mail today relates that “leaked Labor polling” shows the party set to run third in the Townsville seats of Mundingburra (LNP 34.5%, KAP 27.4%, Labor 24.9%) and Thuringowa (LNP 33.4%, KAP 25.1%, Labor 23.7%), both of which they hold, and then deliver victory to Katter’s Australian Party on their preferences. However, it also suggests Stephen Andrew, who has defected to Katter’s Australian Party from One Nation, will struggle in his seat of Mirani to hold off the LNP, whom he trails 40.8% to 21.4%, with Labor on 18.7% and One Nation on 16.5%. It also suggests independent Sandy Nelson will rely on preferences to hold out against an LNP surge in Noosa, trailing 42.0% to 36.9% on the primary vote with Labor on 9.1%.

• On Wednesday, Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail suggested the Labor slump in Townsville may have prompted Rob Katter’s backdown on introducing a bill to wind back liberalised abortion laws, which has caused such grief for the LNP during the campaign. The party’s high hopes for Mundingburra in particular stood to be jeopardised by a conservative line on abortion, given Townsville’s youthful demographic profile. Elsewhere in the Courier-Mail, Madura McCormack reported Labor’s Townsville collapse was confirmed by “sources across all three parties”.

• Former Labor state secretary Cameron Milner, now a lobbyist with a side hustle criticising the party from the right for News Corp, also reckons Katter’s Australian Party “looks the goods in Cook and Mulgrave”, since here too Labor is set to drop to third. Milner also goes so far as to rate that Keppel “has already elected James Ashby” of One Nation. So far as Labor losses to the LNP are concerned, Milner says the Labor casualty list will certainly include Barron River, Mackay, Townsville, Thuringowa, Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, Nicklin, Caloundra and Pumicestone, likely to be joined by Aspley, Mansfield and Redcliffe, with several more besides listed as possibilities.

• Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail further reported Labor’s inner urban recovery meant the Greens had “quietly whittled down to four” its list of target seats from an initial seven, leaving McConnel, Cooper, Greenslopes and Miller as the seats it hopes to add to its existing complement of Maiwar and South Brisbane. “Labor hardheads” go so far as to say “the Greens will crash on election night”, leaving Grace Grace and Jonty Bush intact in McConnel and Cooper. Miller also “isn’t in doubt”, though nothing specifically was said of Greenslopes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

283 comments on “Newspoll: 52.5-47.5 to LNP in Queensland”

Comments Page 3 of 6
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  1. banquo911 crime rates going through the roof is completely normal and expected in any new tough-on-crime regime. After five or so terms of the Duterte regime most of your immediate family members are dead and then the crime rate can start to drop. I assume is what they were thinking.

  3. Socrates:
    11:11 pm
    If the LNP does wind up in minority government territory, based on the polling since the abortion issue was raised, they have absolutely no mandate to raise a private member’s bill limiting access to abortion.

    Gimme a break.
    It’s not even part of their policy, of course there’s no mandate.

    Robbie Katter was the one promising a Private Members Bill that caused all the damage, he’s backtracked, now he’s saying it will be a babies born alive bill.
    So no limit on access to abortion from Katter now, let alone the LNP.

  4. “One assumes that the extent of the early vote tells against Qld Labor.”

    Not necessarily Boerwar. The last election was held at the peak of fear surrounding Covid. Which saw a large cohort of people to vote via postal-voting. Postal votes are back down, and early voting seems to be continuing its growing trend now that things have normalised. Some that might have opted for a postal vote last time have probably headed to the pre-poll.

    Based on the polling trend throughout the campaign suggesting a tightening in the race though, I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a wider than usual disparity between pre-poll and election-day votes. And to your point, there probably was a strong anti-Labor vote in the first few days of the Early Voting period. Compounded by the fact that retirees are often over-represented at the commencement of early-voting.

  5. ‘Badthinker says:
    Friday, October 25, 2024 at 4:00 pm

    Socrates:
    11:11 pm
    If the LNP does wind up in minority government territory, based on the polling since the abortion issue was raised, they have absolutely no mandate to raise a private member’s bill limiting access to abortion.

    Gimme a break.
    It’s not even part of their policy, of course there’s no mandate…..’
    =========================
    Bullshit. The LNP’s christian zealots have a mandate from God. The Power of Prayer.

  6. ‘SEQ Observer says:
    Friday, October 25, 2024 at 4:01 pm

    “One assumes that the extent of the early vote tells against Qld Labor.”

    Not necessarily Boerwar….’
    ==================
    Thanks. I prefer your considered view to my speculative guess.

  8. SEQ Observer @ #98 Friday, October 25th, 2024 – 2:38 pm

    The count will be interesting tomorrow. Labor are likely to start out in front with a surprisingly strong position as the small election day booths are counted and published. At the end of the night though, a heap of the key seats will just be in the In Doubt column once the huge Pre-Poll Voting Centre booths are published.

    Because there seemingly has been a clear trend in Labor support growing throughout the campaign, it’s likely we will also see a wider than usual difference between election day and pre-poll voting. The count will be nail-biting for ALP and LNP because there might not be a clearer picture until Monday morning. A few of seat counts will extend into the following fortnight as postal votes are counted.

    You would hope that opinion polls conducted after early voting started would capture how early voters have ACTUALLY voted, either by a specific question or by responders using their common sense when answering the voting question.

  9. The LNP got Kattered.
    Did a deal to run dead in Hill, Traeger and Hinchinbrook in return for Katter preferences in Townsville, Mundingburra and Thuringowra, now Katter is wining Mundinburra and Thuringowra on Labor preferences as well as Mulgrave and Cook the same way.
    So, they’re losing 4 seats they woulda won, ran dead in another 3, that they might have won, and Katter exposed their lack of guts on the abortion issue, which has cost them another 20 odd seats, and they could lose a couple they already hold over the issue.
    Words fail …

  10. Kevin Bonham:

    As the final polls come out, we seem on for a closer Queensland election than earlier this year looked the case. For much of the year the Miles Government has had classic hallmarks of a doomed state government – almost ten years in power, federally dragged, beset by crime complaints, and polling terribly. Even four weeks ago there were signs of some recovery, but nothing that looked like life. Now in the final week the LNP has recorded a couple of polls based off which it would be only slightly more likely than not to get a majority. As the pendulum slightly favours Labor, it’s even still plausible that if there is a modest polling error, Labor could scrape home. Equally it’s still plausible that the LNP could outdo the polls or get a good seat distribution and get a very solid majority. But the very heavy drubbing that for so long looked so likely now seems a much more remote prospect. If the late polls are spot on, Labor will almost certainly still lose, but they won’t have trouble with saving the furniture. Not that they needed the furniture the last time they were voted out.

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/10/queensland-narrows-in-final-days.html

  11. BW to avoid further Kattering I recommend The LNP allow Labor to work with Katter to form government. Labor could do with a good Kattering.

  12. Sportsbet – Labor’s odds have improved – firming from $8.00 to $7.50 in terms of a majority Government.
    Hung Parliament? Yes -odds have improved of that – $5.00 now(was $8.00 yesterday)

  13. I guess my only confusion with the polling tightening the Coalition still has a primary number in the early 40’s. They must be getting that 42% average from somewhere. Unlikely to be North QLD if KAP is polling so well in those seats. Find out in about 27 hours.

  14. LNP are possibly getting a big vote out of the seats they already hold.
    Anyway, tomorrow night will be far more potentially interesting than any pundits or amateur pundits like us here ever expected even a week ago. By no means do I think Labor will win, but I’m expecting a few odd results in some seats.
    We can probably agree that a good campaign from Miles and a pretty mediocre one from Crisafulli has evened the playing field to some extent.

  15. “One assumes that the extent of the early vote tells against Qld Labor.”

    You’re obviously not convinced as you’ve repeated this, but I should think that yes it does overall – but that it is also factored into the poll results – i.e. in the absence of anything to the contrary, it’s sensible to assume these pollsters are doing the ‘normal’ thing and including those who’ve already voted that they poll, in their VI figures. So their headline 2PP, if it’s accurate at all, will allow for early voting.

    This means, as others have implied, that Labor on 49-51 would definitely win the ‘on the day’ vote – if the overall is 50-50 or better for them, they will substantially win the ‘on the day’ vote. Perhaps to the tune of what they got last election.

    But the difference to the last election is that the early voting will favour LNP more in all likelihood.

  16. What I have not seen mentioned in this thread vis a vis Katter getting up in Townsville is the role Greens preferences may play. The Greens in all the North Queensland seats that I have looked at have the ALP at #2 and the LNP at #3. So the Greens may be able to get the ALP ahead of the Katters. If the Katters are still ahead, the Greens preferences may deliver victory to the LNP. The Greens votes in these seats are not generally high but Greens voters are usually pretty disciplined and the votes might be enough.

  17. Labor has incumbency advantage in most of the seats where this election will be won or lost.

    I do think now it’s close, that that will be significant. I mean that they could afford to have a 3% swing against them state-wide (a 50-50 result basically – 2020 election was 53.2-46.8) and potentially have a net no loss of seats at all.

    Or they could lose 2PP 49-51 as per the UComms poll IF it doesn’t tighten further with the late deciders, and lose some seats but still win a majority.

    All that said, if late deciders are all going with the momentum, Labor is probably winning the 2PP anyway when all the votes are counted – 51 or 52%. Probably gaining seats in outer Brisbane if so.

    Although there will be regional swings possibly in different directions, Labor is possibly holding onto longterm Labor stronghold Cairns, after all. POSSIBLY only.

  18. ”
    ScromoIIsays:
    Friday, October 25, 2024 at 2:30 pm
    A small LNP majority or a first term minority LNP government is probably even worse for Labor in the long term than a moderate LNP majority. It would mean that in 2028 there would almost certainly be a thumping LNP win of massive proportions. Whereas if the LNP got around 60 seats this time round Labor could potentially look at a two term strategy to rebuild.

    If the “hard men” of the LNP dispatched Crisafulli it would only be a “nastier government” for the LEFT. Oh, the Left basically don’t exist in Queensland. Even West End politically would only resemble mid-suburbia in Melbourne or Sydney.
    ”

    LOL scromo
    For you left is right and up is down. 🙂

  19. D Sausage

    “LNP are possibly getting a big vote out of the seats they already hold.”

    Well, that speculation is very likely true and exactly ties up with my 5.41 post above re Labor winning same no. of seats as 2020 on smaller 2PP.

    This now really does smell of a Labor majority.

    But the media won’t say that, because they want to scream ‘SHOCK LABOR VICTORY’ when it actually happens for maximum impact/purchase.
    Tbf, most of the journos are probably too busy chasing headlines (sounds nicer than saying they are too dumb) to join the dots of what is happening like us nerds on here. Though it would be nice if they employed people who did, would improve the journalism / reporting enormously.

  20. Kap not certain of extra
    I think they will win Mirani
    Cook and Mulgrave remain alp
    Chances of winning 2 Townsville based seats on balance will probably win 1.
    Extra for kap not guaranteed but they are in there with a chance.
    This is like throwing a bomb… will collect something extra
    The lnp would prior to kap’s play have won 3 in Townsville and Mirani
    And had chances in the other 2. If things go bad for lnp they win.maybe only the seat of Townsville.
    “Old dogs by the hard road, puppies by the grass footpath “

  22. NSW has 4 year fixed Legislative terms. Morris Iemma became NSW Premier after 10 years of Bob Carr. So Iemma became Premier during 3rd term of Carr. Iemma was listless during rest of the term. Everyone predicted LNP victory in 2007. The polls tightened during 2007 campaign and the polls were on knife edge after 12 years of Labor. As I said before, in NSW it is fixed 4 year term and the government has to go to polls in 3rd week of March
    The NSW Premier has no choice.
    Guess what Morris Iemma won that election.
    Will Miles do a Iemma?

    The leader of opposition had initials of PD. His name is Peter Debnam. I believe he represented probably the richest electorate in NSW.

  23. A minority lnp guarantees nothing in the future.
    The lnp have stuffed up big time if this occurs.
    They (lnp) are in a position where they will be implementing other parties ‘ promises and are blamed for doing so.
    The lnp …. Katter alliance will have protracted arguments and crisisses . Which will cause instability.

  24. Stephen Andrew way overperformed the One Nation vote during his previous two wins in Mirani, especially in 2020 where he was reelected on the back of a decent swing while One Nation’s statewide vote was cut in half. The natural assumption would be that his success is largely on the back of being a popular local member rather than there being a huge swath of rusted-on One Nation voters in his electorate, and my suspicion is that his defection to KAP won’t make a big difference to his re-election chances.

    I reckon the rest of the incumbent Katter MPs will also be reelected fairly comfortably too. They have enormous margins, what seem to be very high personal votes, and their electorates don’t strike me as being the sort where abortion is a particularly big issue.

  25. @ Ven
    No the alp if they had lost in nsw in 2007 would have lost narrowly. This would have avoided the 2011 disaster for Labor.

  26. I’d add Ferny Grove, Springwood, Capalaba, Ipswich West, Mount Omnaney, Mansfield and Stretton to your good list of seats to watch in the suburbs , David.
    I assume Bulimba, Greenslopes, Nundah, Chermside are now safe. Chatsworth could be a surprise.

  27. Mick
    Curtis Pitt has obviously built up a huge personal vote in Mulgrave and despite a 12% margin that is now up for grabs. On 2022 federal figures Labor would have lost easily. With the absence of Curtis Pitt, that Labor vote is very soft. The question is where it goes.
    I would not be in the least surprised if Labor hold on in Cook.

  28. ”
    davidwhsays:
    Friday, October 25, 2024 at 5:52 pm
    The Cairns Crocodile has picked Labor to win. Must be why the betting markets are tightening to Labor
    ”

    David
    Who is Cairns Crocodile?

  30. In Townsville all voters will look very closely at what they do.
    Will the greens elect a lnp candidate? Knowing Labor cannot win ?
    Imagine the argument the lnp won a absolute majority of 47 on the back on greens preferences .

  31. With the exception of the 2012 rout and Billy Gordon’s stint as an independent, Labor have held Cook almost uninterrupted since 1977. Even in 2012, the LNP only managed 53% of the TPP. I think Cynthia Lui will more than likely hang on there.

  32. I think everything from a narrow Labor win (either majority or minority) to a solid LNP majority win is possible and there are so many factors are involved that I am quite confused at this stage.

    One random thought I had is that at least some of the tightening polling since early voting started might be due to people now putting down how they actually voted rather than perhaps having been undecided previously. Therefore it may in fact be an indication that the undecideds are breaking in favour of Labor.

  33. A Townsville seat
    Alp 25%
    Kap 35%
    Lnp 30%
    Gr 6%
    Onp 4%
    What happens?

    Onp to kap… 39%
    Gr to alp. …. 29%
    Lnp……… 30%
    Alp preferences lead to kap victory

  34. I just checked the mailbox and an LNP pamphlet was there. It has Miles and local guy in black and white the LNP guy ( who is a bit of a scomoe lookalike) plus Crisifulli in colour and a bit of crap on the back about chaos and bulk billing which it’s sort of hard to decipher the meaning. As I’ve said the LNP wants to sack it’s advertising agency after this election no matter what the result. It’s been absolutely shockingly awful and here we are with LNP maybe just crawling over the line to a majority.

  36. I wouldn’t worry too much about that David I think the guy holding the stick might have been a bit of an Labor man. He seemed a bit too delighted when the croc took the Labor card. I still think LNP will get over the line by a small margin much to the crocs chagrin.

  40. They must be getting that 42% average from somewhere. Unlikely to be North QLD if KAP is polling so well in those seats. Find out in about 27 hours.
    LNP 42% in Mundingburra won’t be enough to win if KAP place 2nd.
    Atm, it’s LNP 42, KAP 27, ALP 24 and falling fast.
    The situation is LNP can’t win up there on 42% unless KAP preferences are distributed.
    Would be similar in Mulgrave, Barron River, and Cook.
    Normally, a collapse in the Labor Vote of this scale would rule them out of Government, but since KAP and the ex Labor Indie in Rockhampton will be the beneficiaries, Labor will end up governing if LNP can’t win 47 seats.
    And the signs are that they won’t get close.

  41. In terms of yard signs for mount ommaney, they’re almost all lnp, couple of green, none for labor. The independent candidate for inala seems popular

  42. As I’ve said the LNP wants to sack it’s advertising agency after this election no matter what the result. It’s been absolutely shockingly awful
    That’s my take too.
    They might as well have been working for the Labor Party, that’s how effective it’s been.
    Bottom line:
    LNP have just been out of office too long and gotten used to being The Opposition.

  44. I’m done trusting yard signs. In April, it was a sea of Green, particularly in Coorparoo, and we know how that turned out.

    This time in Bulimba it’s kind of an even 3 way split, but I don’t have many doubts that Di Farmer will be returned.

  45. There seems to be a lack of collective intelligence within the lnp or the wise counsel if it exists is being ignored .
    They were outplayed by Kap in terms of the abortion bill .. the deal on exchange for preferences and the projected vote in the Townsville seats.
    They must have assumed they would poll something like 58/42 2pp and sweep the state no matter what.
    Now on the assumption that the resolve and newspoll are right then there has been a tightening of maybe 6% this is unheard of.
    It is Possible that a lot of their gains may evaporate and labor will hold most if not all of their Brisbane marginals.

  46. Message from the Brisbane Times editor in todays newsletter

    Steven Miles has turned political convention on its head. Even if he does not lead Labor to a fourth consecutive term of government, his departure from the accepted political norm has given apparatchiks everywhere a lesson in how to make an old administration appear new again. And it sets the scene for what will undoubtedly be Queensland’s first four-year election campaign – starting Monday.

    Not only has the Liberal National Party been outfoxed, David Crisafulli has struggled in the spotlight, despite displaying the qualities that have long eluded the Queensland conservatives – discipline, humility and patience. Crisafulli is a well-drilled opposition leader, and may well be premier next week, but he stepped into the spotlight virtually untested. Unlike Miles, it appears he has not endured the bruising internal battles that prove your mettle in politics, nor does he have the support base and resources enjoyed by Labor. Power is nothing without control.

    In one of the many glowing, pre-election, personal profiles, Crisafulli was quoted saying the LNP had made “no mistakes” in opposition (he made similar boasts today). As a former political reporter, I was puzzled by this, and used the first debate to ask Crisafulli when he had last fought his colleagues for something he believed in. He said “every day in leadership you have to stand up for things, every single day”, then insisted his team was united and achieved consensus in decision-making.

    Also in the debate, some 22 days ago now, I asked Crisafulli how he could govern for all Queenslanders when the LNP had so few female frontbenchers and so many candidates rallying to restrict a woman’s right to choose. He said there would be no change to abortion laws – when prodded, he agreed he would need to stare down those in his party who wanted reform – and insisted there were female candidates in winnable seats. He may well be right.

    As ugly as it has been, the abortion questions kept coming. Crisafulli’s inability to settle the issue and move on leaves open the perception that the LNP simply can’t. It also raises deeper questions of conviction, of both leadership and beliefs, as well as that other quality that has long evaded Queensland conservatives – unity. How can it be that Labor, having toppled its long-term leader, tilted Left in caucus, and carried the usual union baggage and so-called crises into the campaign, now appears the most united?

    Speaking of conviction of beliefs, Labor rebadged two policies from the Greens that it previously ridiculed, in the form of 50¢ public transport fares and free school lunches. Those policies have been the most talked-about announcements I can recall on a campaign, and they go to the various polls and surveys that suggest cost of living is the biggest issue for voters in 2024, not crime as the LNP thought (and which Crisafulli reluctantly staked his premiership on). Cynical? Populist? Responsive? Maybe all three. But it has successfully drawn attention to Miles and his bold claim to be a new leader with a new government.

    Wary of Labor scare campaigns about long-ago LNP government cuts, Crisafulli vowed to honour the state budget, and keep 50¢ fares, as he continued his small-target strategy. But then Labor abandoned its fiscal principles by announcing it would borrow to pay for its flashier election commitments, which meant the LNP would technically make bigger cuts to afford its promises. The scare campaigns continued, and will continue throughout the next term if Labor is consigned to opposition. What’s more, Crisafulli’s ambitious pledge to deliver projects on time and on budget will ensure greater scrutiny, including, ironically, if the LNP decides to rebuild the Gabba for the 2032 Games, something Miles wanted to do but ultimately gave up on.

    If the polls prove correct, Labor may have belatedly stemmed the flow of votes to the Greens in Brisbane, and, through the abortion debate, disrupted preference flows in the regional areas contested by the LNP, Katter’s Australian Party and One Nation. But the earlier, pre-poll ballots will favour an actual new government, meaning that Saturday night will now be a seat-by-seat, party-by-party game of parliamentary Jenga to see what stacks up.

    To his critics, Miles has long been derided as “Giggles”, the blonde-haired policy wonk and social media dad, still awkward in the shadow of Annastacia Palaszczuk and a tired Labor government. As the election drew closer, Miles somehow leaned in to the spotlight, while Crisafulli stuck to the steady course he laid out long ago. Today, Miles didn’t even try to hide the laughter – on a jetski, in a supercar, eating a Yatala pie – as he chased last-minute votes. He was overjoyed to have the opportunity to slam Crisafulli for an election-eve policy clarification – on crime, no less – while the LNP leader continued to call on voters to give Queensland a fresh start.

    I don’t know how we got here, I won’t predict the outcome, and I can’t say what the next parliament will look like. But, rest assured, Queensland is moving into permanent campaign mode, with a federal election also due within months, an electorate divided, and political convention thrown out the window. It has been a challenge for the LNP to take government, but the conservatives’ even bigger challenge in Queensland has always been staying in government. Labor will be chasing gold in 2028 and the right to govern through the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games. A sprint just turned into a marathon.

    Have a great weekend,

    Sean Parnell

    Editor

  48. Joeldipops: I’m in Coorparoo and grew up in Bulimba. I’ve seen one LNP sign tucked away in a back street of Buranda for a lady running in the west end seat which of course they have no chance in. Probably even stevens on the sign front around here between Joe Kelly and the greens lady who looks like a comedienne from the old 1980 ABC comedy show the big gig. I think Joe will will win easily.

  49. Just looking through the LNP list in winnable City of Brisbane seats, am noticing LNP ran a lot of young women.
    Good for them.
    To Ferny Grove, their candidates brochure opens with the words.

    I’m Nelson Savanh, your LNP candidate for Ferny Grove
    My husband and I both grew up in the suburbs and like so many Queenslanders have chosen to settle down in Brisbane’s northside…

    Again, good on him, not sure that’s relevant to voters in Ferny Grove, Arana Hills, Gaythorne, Ennoggera [Army barracks]?
    https://online.lnp.org.au/nelsonsavanh

  50. Princeplanet @ #148 Friday, October 25th, 2024 – 6:14 pm

    Joeldipops: I’m in Coorparoo and grew up in Bulimba. I’ve seen one LNP sign tucked away in a back street of Buranda for a lady running in the west end seat which of course they have no chance in. Probably even stevens on the sign front around here between Joe Kelly and the greens lady who looks like a comedienne from the old 1980 ABC comedy show the big gig. I think Joe will will win easily.

    I’m in Holland Park ( next to Coorparoo) and similar mix of signs except in our very narrow

    neck of the woods where the Greens signs seem everywhere, especially on McMansions! Not very consistent with treading lightly on the environment!

    Maybe LNP will run 3rd and their preferences elect Joe!

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