Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll adds more weight to the impression of a Labor recovery in Queensland, cutting the LNP’s two-party lead to 52.5-47.5 from the 55-45 the pollster recorded a month ago. The LNP primary vote has nonetheless held steady at 42%, with Labor’s three point gain to 33% drawn from a one-point drop for the Greens to 11% and a two-point drop from others to 6% (possibly influenced by a changing in response options after candidate details became available), while One Nation is steady on 8%. Steven Miles is up four on approval to 45% and down three on disapproval to 48%, and now leads David Crisafulli 45-42 as preferred premier after trailing 46-39 in the last poll. Crisafulli is down six on approval to 43% and up nine on disapproval to 46%. The poll was conducted last Friday through to yesterday from a sample of 1151.
Some further recent horse-race calling:
• The Courier-Mail today relates that “leaked Labor polling” shows the party set to run third in the Townsville seats of Mundingburra (LNP 34.5%, KAP 27.4%, Labor 24.9%) and Thuringowa (LNP 33.4%, KAP 25.1%, Labor 23.7%), both of which they hold, and then deliver victory to Katter’s Australian Party on their preferences. However, it also suggests Stephen Andrew, who has defected to Katter’s Australian Party from One Nation, will struggle in his seat of Mirani to hold off the LNP, whom he trails 40.8% to 21.4%, with Labor on 18.7% and One Nation on 16.5%. It also suggests independent Sandy Nelson will rely on preferences to hold out against an LNP surge in Noosa, trailing 42.0% to 36.9% on the primary vote with Labor on 9.1%.
• On Wednesday, Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail suggested the Labor slump in Townsville may have prompted Rob Katter’s backdown on introducing a bill to wind back liberalised abortion laws, which has caused such grief for the LNP during the campaign. The party’s high hopes for Mundingburra in particular stood to be jeopardised by a conservative line on abortion, given Townsville’s youthful demographic profile. Elsewhere in the Courier-Mail, Madura McCormack reported Labor’s Townsville collapse was confirmed by “sources across all three parties”.
• Former Labor state secretary Cameron Milner, now a lobbyist with a side hustle criticising the party from the right for News Corp, also reckons Katter’s Australian Party “looks the goods in Cook and Mulgrave”, since here too Labor is set to drop to third. Milner also goes so far as to rate that Keppel “has already elected James Ashby” of One Nation. So far as Labor losses to the LNP are concerned, Milner says the Labor casualty list will certainly include Barron River, Mackay, Townsville, Thuringowa, Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, Nicklin, Caloundra and Pumicestone, likely to be joined by Aspley, Mansfield and Redcliffe, with several more besides listed as possibilities.
• Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail further reported Labor’s inner urban recovery meant the Greens had “quietly whittled down to four” its list of target seats from an initial seven, leaving McConnel, Cooper, Greenslopes and Miller as the seats it hopes to add to its existing complement of Maiwar and South Brisbane. “Labor hardheads” go so far as to say “the Greens will crash on election night”, leaving Grace Grace and Jonty Bush intact in McConnel and Cooper. Miller also “isn’t in doubt”, though nothing specifically was said of Greenslopes.
The previous Premier should have quit 6 months before she actually did, she left Miles an almighty mess and he has done his very best in difficult circumstances to make Labor competitive this time.
Labor will regret not coming down harder on crime especially in regional QLD.
However Crisafulli is a one trick pony, the crime thing is all he has run on, the rest of his policy cupboard looks bare and devoid of detail.
My hunch is an LNP majority of 15, but Labor with enough experience and talent to mount a decent opposition.
If anyone wants to see the table of the Newspoll as it appears in the hardcopy of the paper, an image is in my Bluesky post.
https://bsky.app/profile/leroylynch.bsky.social/post/3l7c7w7quni2y
It would be more accurate to say crime rates in Qld are trending down over the last 25 years, whilst the actual offences have increased, which is due to population growth in Qld. Seems to have been an increase in all crimes post covid, the lockdowns etc seem to have fried a few of the cookers brains.
https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/queensland-crime-statistics/
I would like to be more positive but my reading is not great for the ALP.
Regarding the swings:
– There appears to be little or no swing in inner Brisbane areas;
– There is likely a below average swing on the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and most rural seats as the vote was already low;
– Leaving above average swings in outer suburbs and potentially scary swings in regional areas.
I am reticent to put my hard numbers here as they are demoralising. Not a Tarago van demoralising; but minority government it certainly is not. Alas, I will be out there doing my part for one the outer suburbs tomorrow hoping it will stay true.
As for Miles, he has been surprisingly effective as leader. Totally outpointed Crisafulli and has brought labor back from the abyss. Has all the momentum but probably needs another week of campaigning. Probably falls just short but who knows.
Anyway, it sure looks like tomorrow night will be much more interesting, and there will be more undecided seats than I previously thought possible.
Nadia, if you are about, I do hope you are ok, and really do look forward to you posting again, and hope that you decide to do so.
Thank you Leroy.
banquo911: the rate of recidivism is very high now.
it’s difficult to assess the effectiveness of “tough on crime” strategies because they have rarely been attempted: governments tend to talk about the concept a lot more than they act. Serious action would require a big increase in expenditure which would require the diversion of limited revenue away from schools, hospitals, etc.
It also requires law changes to seriously limit the discretion given to judges and magistrates re sentencing and bail, which they invariably resent a great deal, resulting in public spats.
So most governments talk a tough game and only tinker at the edges. So of course not much is achieved.
Bogan: which seat will you be working in? Good luck mate to you out on the hustings tomorrow. Yes, it is better to be sober and realistic, but at least the polling tells us Miles has made up some ground in the last few weeks, although probably not enough. He needed another 2 weeks of campaigning.
Two people I am following, because I know them quite well via social media anyway – Mark Bailey in Miller, and Rob Skelton in Nicklin.
Those outer Brisbane electorates are definitely the wildcard. I think most of the movement to the ALP is more inner Brisbane, but I can’t imagine we are going to see swings in outer Brisbane anything like what was expected a month or two ago.
Prediction for Nadia: LNP 54 ALP 46
Just a shame our betting markets are so unsophisticated.
Q: it’s difficult to assess the effectiveness of “tough on crime” strategies because they have rarely been attempted
The US has, and has 2 million people locked up….how is their crime rate going?
Actually, quite a few US states have crime rates well below Queensland. The NT from memory runs about 50 per 1000 population, both WA and Queensland run around 30 per 1000, which definitely puts them up as comparable to the worse half of US states. US is very variable, with figures between about 10 per 100 to over 50 per 1000, with an average currently of about 35 per 1000.
NT is genuinely really, really bad. Right up there with the very worse figures in the developed world. Parts of Queensland aren’t that far behind, to be honest.
Torchbearer: this will be why the LNP will be unpopular very quickly. Crime especially indigenous youth crime in somewhere like Townsville is super complex and won’t be solved by harsh penalty. Some of these kids have fairly serious issues. It all sounds good and I can understand the frustration of people affected by incessant crime but it won’t work and people will soon realise just like they did in 2012 when bikies on the GC featured heavily in the courier that the LNP doesn’t have any answers .
Which is why pushing government services and frontline public sector workers outside of Brisbane is so important. This is THE fundamental failure of the ALP government. Other states are doing this stuff better. Both NSW and Victoria have much more equal distribution of frontline public sector workers than Queensland.
What betting on the result, it doesn’t seem a lot, is shortening the odds for a Coalition minority, hung parliament, Coalition around 54 seats and Labor around 34 seats.
Personally my strong opinion is that a Coalition minority requiring them to govern with the support of KAP and ON is the worse outcome for QLD. I would be happy with any other outcome.
Oh except a Green majority. 🙂
David Crisafuli reassures voters that he won’t necessarily achieve his targeted reductions in youth crime and won’t be resigning if he doesn’t after all.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/25/queensland-election-david-crisafulli-lnp-crime-numbers-policy
Then:
“Crisafulli made the promise to resign as premier after four years if “victim numbers” did not reduce, during a first debate with the Labor premier, Steven Miles, on 4 October.
“I’m serious about it, and I’m not giving myself any wriggle room. It’s victim numbers,” Crisafulli said.”
Now:
“On Friday, less than 24 hours before the polls open, Crisafulli told reporters his promise to resign actually referred to rates, rather than numbers.”
Crisafulli’s only political skill seems to be walking backwards.
Socrates: Mr Crisifulli is truly amazing, I have never seen a leader who has diminished himself so much in the course of a campaign. The LNP had Labor on the ropes but now it’s Crisifulli who is punch-drunk. I have never seen such an astonishing turn around. Labor might not win tomorrow but the fact I’m saying might blows my mind after the polling we have seen this year.
I dunno about you guys, but I think that Labor can gain a couple of marginal Brisbane seats within the Council area, specifically, Chatsworth and maybe Clayfield. Happy to be wrong. Just being a Labor optimist! 🙂
Do pollers ever give breakdowns in age/area through a report or anything. Seems like they give primarys/2pp and that’s it
Edit: Nevermind I should learn to scroll up to Leroy haha
Bandbane : what about adding Everton and Moggill to the list!!!! All four seats are extremely marginal. I Might be in Dreamworld but one things for certain the LNP is sitting on some seats with extremely thin margins eg Currumbin is 0.5%
On Moggil – a few months ago, a guy I know who lives there said he quite liked Miles, but didn’t seem super convinced, a bit of a swing voter but thought Miles had his heart and stomach in the right place.
By this morning his stance had hardened a lot to
“I dont get Liberals this time around
No agency for women
dont feed the kids
lock up the kids”
Let’s just say I hope he’s not the only in in Moggil to be going through that journey.
Oh, while I’m here, by sister in Rockhampton told me
“The feeling isn’t really Fuck Labor at the moment, more “Fuck the lot of ’em”
She wasn’t very bullish on Strewlow’s chances, but did say she was ‘popular’.
Princeplanet
Agreed re: Crisafullli. The dropoff in LNP polling leaves me wondering: how do they deliver stable government with him if they win?
Crisafulli’s performance in the campaign has been awful. From a position of strength, with cost of living pressures hurting ALP incumbents, he has stalled. Miles was entitled to apply the blowtorch to him on the abortion question, because he kept dodging it. Now Crisafulli looks quite weak.
Multiple LNP MPs and candidates must realise that their leader has weakened their chances of election and holding power. If Labor wins his leadership is over.
Yet if the LNP wins a narrow majority, what happens? There must be many in the LNP who would be nervous about Crisafulli as Premier after this performance. Do they challenge for the leadership? If there is a minority (likely) will Crisafulli be able to hold a coalition together? That is usually a difficult job.
uComms robo poll with big sample has it 51/49.
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/104516204
I think the government has been doing a lot on “youth crime”. There are two problems:
1. Crime overall has actually been going down slightly
2. The type of crime that has been occurring is highly visible and is being committed by kids from deprived backgrounds who have actually no stake in society and sometimes problems such as FAS.
It’s good that Miles has actually been pushing these lines – the ground was lost before he was Premier, when the government should have been pushing back hard against the moral panic being fuelled by the LNP and the Murdoch media.
Moral panics are never defeated by reactive measures – if you are addressing the problem you need to be out and about saying “we know about that and this is how we are adressing it”, not by panicking into acceding to every screech emitted by those fuelling them.
Socrates @ #73 Friday, October 25th, 2024 – 12:46 pm
I predict Crisafulli would be quickly dispatched by the hard men of the LNP (read old national Party types) and an even nastier government would emerge. I don’t think this would end well for the LNP.
davidwh @ #74 Friday, October 25th, 2024 – 1:06 pm
Don’t lose hope as the rest of us dare to dream!
What a turnaround this has been! I think it’s come too late to prevent an LNP victory, but its close enough now that the government holding onto power is not totally out of the question, and whatever result we see tomorrow surely isn’t going to be the utter thrashing we had all been expecting weeks ago.
Agree with others that after all this, Crisafulli will be starting his premiership from a pretty vulnerable position if he wins tomorrow night, and that there’s no way he hangs on as leader if the LNP fall short of taking office.
I’m fine ajm. Only result that concerns me is a Coalition minority.
A small LNP majority or a first term minority LNP government is probably even worse for Labor in the long term than a moderate LNP majority. It would mean that in 2028 there would almost certainly be a thumping LNP win of massive proportions. Whereas if the LNP got around 60 seats this time round Labor could potentially look at a two term strategy to rebuild.
If the “hard men” of the LNP dispatched Crisafulli it would only be a “nastier government” for the LEFT. Oh, the Left basically don’t exist in Queensland. Even West End politically would only resemble mid-suburbia in Melbourne or Sydney.
“Even West End politically would only resemble mid-suburbia in Melbourne or Sydney.”
Ahh yes, the part of the country where 50% of people voted for Jonothan Sriranganathan to be Lord Mayor. The guy who’s been taken to court multiple times for his protest tactics, who advocates squatting, pushes hard for any and all forms of non-violent civil disobedience, and above all is well known for his bloody beat-poetry.
Just an average suburban Sydney bloke.
ScromoII @ #80 Friday, October 25th, 2024 – 1:30 pm
You don’t live in Queensland do you? And/or you don’t have lived experience of a Queensland LNP government. There is a reason for the almost wall to wall Labor governments since the end of the John era
There are a number of seats in outer Brisbane, Moreton and Logan that will decide where this election ends up. Seats like Aspley, Redcliffe, Pumicestone, Pine River, Capalaba, Redlands, Macalister and Nixon. If the Coalition fail to win a fair number of those seats then the way to achieving a majority government will be tough.
Pay to keep a close eye on these together with the regional seats tomorrow night.
People in the US thread are saying ol’ Shart of the Deal has momentum and will win with his squint-to-see-it 1pt improvement over the last week or so. If that’s the case this bloke Miles has already passed through the sound barrier and will improve his majority to well beyond the number of seats currently in the QLD parliament. Good luck to QLD Labor tomorrow!
Backtracker on Crime!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/25/queensland-election-david-crisafulli-lnp-crime-numbers-policy
Crisifulla What?
“Omar Comin’says:
Friday, October 25, 2024 at 2:46 pm
People in the US thread are saying ol’ Shart of the Deal has momentum and will win with his squint-to-see-it 1pt improvement over the last week or so. If that’s the case this bloke Miles has already passed through the sound barrier and will improve his majority to well beyond the number of seats currently in the QLD parliament. Good luck to QLD Labor tomorrow!”
Comment of the day! Labor taking over JPL’s Surfers Paradise at this rate.
Scromo II
“ If the “hard men” of the LNP dispatched Crisafulli it would only be a “nastier government” for the LEFT. Oh, the Left basically don’t exist in Queensland. Even West End politically would only resemble mid-suburbia in Melbourne or Sydney.”
ROTFL 🙂 Name one government in the past 30 years that has gotten electorally stronger by turfing the leader in its first term?
As for Labor, they are surely now united under a new leader who has gotten them competitive from a losing position. Even if Labor does not win from here Miles leadership is assured by having saved so many seats and MPs careers. Plus he has grown in confidence and looks more assured on campaign.
I may not live in Qld but I did grow up there.
2 point LNP lead 2 party preferred – fuck, it is getting slightly interesting!
I mean, it could be that Labor loses 6 or 7 in the regions, but picks up a seat or two from the LNP in Brisbane, stranger things have happened.
And when Sky News today are going after Steven Miles, that means Murdoch sees him as a threat to their boy Dodgy Dave.
Minority government on the cards now.
Anything in the ballpark of 52.5 and under LNP TPP is too close for comfort when we consider crossbenchers alone. But when we also factor in just how lopsided this TPP will be across the various Queensland regions, things do not seem so great for the LNP.
There are at least a dozen LNP seats that command a blow out TPP of over 60%. These are located through rural Queensland and the Gold Coast. LNP risk exhausting much of their state-wide support in safe-seats like these. Labor conversely sees a much smaller number of seats with blow out leads like this. Instead Labor hold more of a modest lead across many seats, with much of its support throughout the provincial urban battlegrounds, as well as Greater Brisbane.
We are likely in a scenario now where state-wide TPP is not in Labor’s favour, although Labor have the slight edge in the plurality of battlegrounds seats. A scenario in which LNP have an over-exhausted edge in a much smaller pool of total seats.
To understand the lopsided situation I am describing, imagine the following crass and over-simplified thought experiment:
– Imagine an ALP TPP of 51% in two-thirds of the state (ie. South East Queensland)
– Imagine a LNP TPP of 60% in one-third of the state (ie. outside of SEQ)
– also just pretend that ALPs 51% TPP is uniform across all South East Queensland seats and favourably translates to most seats going to Labor.
The political geography is obviously far more nuanced and interesting than this. But in the scenario I described above, you get an ~53%-47% TPP for LNP. However, ALP had a slight edge on more seats because LNP’s support was too concentrated outside of battlegrounds. LNP TPP might be picked up as a strong state-wide signal by pollsters, but that doesn’t always translate into seats, particularly in a context like Queensland where there are hugely disparate regions.
I think that Labor has a chance of picking up the marginal LNP Brisbane seats, but loses the regional Queensland seats. Reckon it will be an LNP minority to slim majority government.
Katter Party aren’t puting LNP into a minority Government.
Why would they?
If LNP can ‘t win 47 seats, there won’t be an LNP Government, and on the latest, with Katter wining Cook, Thuringowra, Mundingburra and Barron River, they’re down to 40 Seats and Labor are close to 40.
Labor minority Government a certainty, imo.
Queensland election candidate for Caloundra Mike Jessop facing weapons, stalking charges
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-23/charges-laid-sunshine-coast-caloundra-independent-mike-jessop/104506270
Saaaaaay….. How is getting rid of the 3 strikes personal use law, and pill testing going to interact with old mate’s big claim of reducing crime rates do you reckon? Could result in some high-volume criminal charges being put out.
Maybe he means he’ll get rid of 3 strikes and just decrim the lot. /s
One assumes that the extent of the early vote tells against Qld Labor.
Correct.
It’s the Mediscare ploy all over again, but Labor gave themselves another week this time.
If they’d done that in 2016, Bill Shorten would’ve got into minority Government with Wilkie, Sharkie, Katter, McGowan and the Greens.
The count will be interesting tomorrow. Labor are likely to start out in front with a surprisingly strong position as the small election day booths are counted and published. At the end of the night though, a heap of the key seats will just be in the In Doubt column once the huge Pre-Poll Voting Centre booths are published.
Because there seemingly has been a clear trend in Labor support growing throughout the campaign, it’s likely we will also see a wider than usual difference between election day and pre-poll voting. The count will be nail-biting for ALP and LNP because there might not be a clearer picture until Monday morning. A few of seat counts will extend into the following fortnight as postal votes are counted.
@J Beans
They’d be taking over the Northern Rivers with this momentum! If only they had another couple of weeks.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-23/charges-laid-sunshine-coast-caloundra-independent-mike-jessop/104506270
He just needed his tools.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mk3EVQnpQWs