Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll adds more weight to the impression of a Labor recovery in Queensland, cutting the LNP’s two-party lead to 52.5-47.5 from the 55-45 the pollster recorded a month ago. The LNP primary vote has nonetheless held steady at 42%, with Labor’s three point gain to 33% drawn from a one-point drop for the Greens to 11% and a two-point drop from others to 6% (possibly influenced by a changing in response options after candidate details became available), while One Nation is steady on 8%. Steven Miles is up four on approval to 45% and down three on disapproval to 48%, and now leads David Crisafulli 45-42 as preferred premier after trailing 46-39 in the last poll. Crisafulli is down six on approval to 43% and up nine on disapproval to 46%. The poll was conducted last Friday through to yesterday from a sample of 1151.
Some further recent horse-race calling:
• The Courier-Mail today relates that “leaked Labor polling” shows the party set to run third in the Townsville seats of Mundingburra (LNP 34.5%, KAP 27.4%, Labor 24.9%) and Thuringowa (LNP 33.4%, KAP 25.1%, Labor 23.7%), both of which they hold, and then deliver victory to Katter’s Australian Party on their preferences. However, it also suggests Stephen Andrew, who has defected to Katter’s Australian Party from One Nation, will struggle in his seat of Mirani to hold off the LNP, whom he trails 40.8% to 21.4%, with Labor on 18.7% and One Nation on 16.5%. It also suggests independent Sandy Nelson will rely on preferences to hold out against an LNP surge in Noosa, trailing 42.0% to 36.9% on the primary vote with Labor on 9.1%.
• On Wednesday, Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail suggested the Labor slump in Townsville may have prompted Rob Katter’s backdown on introducing a bill to wind back liberalised abortion laws, which has caused such grief for the LNP during the campaign. The party’s high hopes for Mundingburra in particular stood to be jeopardised by a conservative line on abortion, given Townsville’s youthful demographic profile. Elsewhere in the Courier-Mail, Madura McCormack reported Labor’s Townsville collapse was confirmed by “sources across all three parties”.
• Former Labor state secretary Cameron Milner, now a lobbyist with a side hustle criticising the party from the right for News Corp, also reckons Katter’s Australian Party “looks the goods in Cook and Mulgrave”, since here too Labor is set to drop to third. Milner also goes so far as to rate that Keppel “has already elected James Ashby” of One Nation. So far as Labor losses to the LNP are concerned, Milner says the Labor casualty list will certainly include Barron River, Mackay, Townsville, Thuringowa, Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, Nicklin, Caloundra and Pumicestone, likely to be joined by Aspley, Mansfield and Redcliffe, with several more besides listed as possibilities.
• Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail further reported Labor’s inner urban recovery meant the Greens had “quietly whittled down to four” its list of target seats from an initial seven, leaving McConnel, Cooper, Greenslopes and Miller as the seats it hopes to add to its existing complement of Maiwar and South Brisbane. “Labor hardheads” go so far as to say “the Greens will crash on election night”, leaving Grace Grace and Jonty Bush intact in McConnel and Cooper. Miller also “isn’t in doubt”, though nothing specifically was said of Greenslopes.
Reposted from the old thread:
Like most of those here, I can only assume, I’m a big fan of watching these things on the night. Give me Antony Green in front of some coloured rectangles over almost any way to spend a Saturday night. But a week ago I thought this one was going to be way too painful.
Now that the polls are where they’re at, I think I can do it now. I have almost reached acceptance that my side is not going to make it, and the next four years are going to involve the state getting dragged backwards in some many areas, because this is going to be a fascinating one to watch. Really looking forward to seeing how those chips are going to fall.
I grew up in Keppel; am now raising a family in Bulimba and haven’t really spent time in the outer suburbs.
Based on that and the way the campaign has gone, I reckon we’re going to see big 3rd party votes in regional Qld as lifelong Labor voters want to punish Labor but can’t stomach voting LNP. I reckon we won’t see much of a swing in Brisbane, but haven’t written off the Greens in McConnell and Cooper completely yet. I guess the remainder of the swing will be in Ipswich/Logan/Caboolture etc and presumably seats will fall there.
I don’t know the seats well enough to give a to-the-number prediction, but I’m not going to get my hopes up for a minority. Slim LNP majority – Crisafulli goes down in history as an awful premier- Labor stronger than ever in 4 years.
Oh, one more prediction I’m surprised more people aren’t making. The KAP incumbent in Mirani is gone. Seat probably goes back to One Nation or just to the LNP
If the LNP does wind up in minority government territory, based on the polling since the abortion issue was raised, they have absolutely no mandate to raise a private member’s bill limiting access to abortion.
In fact, if current trends continue, the LNP in government would not have a mandate for much at all. They have completely failed to spell out a program by which they would govern and pay for their promises.
Its a pity Miles got off to a nerve start as Premier. He is campaigning well now and seems to have found his feet.
The LNP primary hasn’t actually changed at all, it’s still 42% as it was a month ago. The increase in the ALP primary is entirely from the Greens and “others”. I’m not sure there’s actually going to be much change in seats with this, as I think it’s likely the ALP has mostly succeeded in fending off the Greens in inner city Brisbane, more than protecting marginal seats in regional Queensland or the outer suburbs.
I also think Mirani will go to the LNP. Keppel will go to the LNP, not Ashby. And I can’t see Strelow winning Rockhampton, the LNP will win that one, too.
We don’t often get numbers ending in .5 from Newspoll. That is a Morgan speciality. Perhaps due to being the final pre-election poll?
My 52 seats for the LNP is still possible. Depends on who between KAP and LNP take some of those northern seats.
I don’t see anything positive coming from an LNP minority relying on KAP and ON. Rather see Labor retain government
Friendlyjordies video on the Queensland election from Monday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXRM1mTWXm8
All the polling I’ve seen has been really poor for the Katters. I think the media and people on this site have been overpredicting for the Katters. I’d be very surprised if the LNP didn’t have a reasonably comfortable majority at the end of saturday night, although there’s definitely going to be more close run seats.
I still don’t think the polling has given us a good insight as to what’s happening in the outer suburbs of Brisbane, which I think is actually think will be main deciding factor.
Cameron Milner who? Sounds like another Warren Mundine like character who didn’t get his spot in parliament.
So what Yougov, Resolve and Newspoll are predicting is that
LNP: 40-42%
Labor: 31-33%
Greens: 11-12%
Others: rest
Honestly I’m of the more pessimistic view that while votes come in on the day on Saturday it might look like Labor’s leading in 45 seats, then the prepolls and postal votes come in and flip about 10 seats to the LNP.
Best prepare for a repeat of NSW 2023 where all the “Too Early” seats on the night end up going to the LNP.
Reposted from the old thread:
Each poll is trending to Labor.
In the absence of anything suggesting the trend getting knocked off course, the late deciders will probably enhance Labor’s momentum further.
Could well be 50-50 or even 51-49 Labor on the day which, were it not for early voting, could mean a Lab majority. Perhaps a chance of one anyway, even if they lose the 2pp.
I should also add, Miles leading on Premier 45-42 whilst statistically barely a lead is very significant taken in context and shows he’s not going be a drag on voting for Labor – another lead indicator on the final vote being more Labor than any polls have shown so far.
(though when I posted this the first time I didn’t realise that Miles was only behind 39-46% in the previous Newspoll, I assumed it was worse than that – so perhaps Newspoll generally poll a little better for Miles than other pollsters)
Bearing in mind 600,000 have already voted, does anyone know if this poll (and the Resolve one for that matter) includes those who have already voted, or if it’s just those who haven’t yet voted?
Makes a big difference to the overall picture potentially – definitely worse for LNP if it includes those who have already voted, as people on here (myself included) have been assuming a vote dividend for them coming from those who voted before the polls tightened so much.
For comparison, the poll details I looked at for the USA election from one pollster earlier today definitely was a figure for voting intention or already voted for, Harris/Trump. So assume it’s common practice for pollsters in order to paint as accurate a snapshot as possible.
I’ve updated the post with a report in the Courier-Mail on detailed Labor polling showing the KAP set to win Mundingburra and Thuringowa, but with the LNP possibly to win Mirani off Stephen Andrew.
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election/battle-of-townsville-leaked-polling-reveals-kap-threat-to-lnp-majority/news-story/51198204fef8ca0f49f4d201ad79b2f1
Wow, game on and an against the odds ALP win no longer “wishful thinking” but a distinct possibility….Jamie Walker’s jubilation all week, now turned to despair in his opinion piece in today’s Oz, says it all.
The LNP’s campaign incompetence has been truly staggering and a major postmortem is now guaranteed, regardless of how the seats fall in the end.
Some personal observations from the hustings:
– McConnel: surge to Labor, with ultra-aggressive “in-your-face” tactics from Greens volunteers backfiring.
– Aspley: tough going yesterday for Labor at the Bridgeman Downs pre-poll (bible-belt area, built largely on acreage) but flickers of hope and no voter aggro.
In McConnel especially, the number of young women seeking out Labor HTV cards has been palpable.
The Greens’ stone age tactics of harassing voters all the way to the booth (in McConnel) and literally promising them “1.5 per cent off your mortgage” (in Aspley) mark a new low in campaigning.
Even if the LNP hangs on and forms govt they may face a tricky crossbench, have a nebulous mandate and will be under immense pressure from the party machine to “get things done” in case it all goes up in a puff of smoke.
Don’t you just love Qld politics?
Baby greasy: the greens tactics are very crude. I’m not anti green but their hostility to Labor shows they can’t see the wood for the trees. I voted at brisbane city hall in the last federal elections and green htv volunteer was telling the people in front of me how the greens invented Medicare. I ended up having a rather terse discussion with this lady who eventually admitted that they didn’t invent Medicare.
I think we are in for a interesting election night.
You would expect an LNP victory, but this will be no repeat of the 2012 Labor wipeout, indeed the combination of the abortion issue coming to the fore and a really substandard campaign from David Crisafulli could very well in the LNP ending up with a majority below double figures. Steven Miles has certainly won the campaign, and at the least he has stemmed the potential losses for Labor in Brisbane.
As for Cameron Milner, the former state ALP secretary, he rarely if ever writes an article for the Murdoch papers complimentary of Labor, so whatever he says I give little credence to.
My mate Mark Bailey in Miller seemed optimistic yesterday, and was hammering the LNP on their castings release debacle.
For Princeplanet, Bogan, Mick and the rest of the Labor tribe here,I am keeping the faith with you blokes and ladies, and the beer fridge is stocked up ready for Saturday.
Typo above – I meant to say costings debacle, me and my terrible spelling..
A good metric for Labor will be how much talent they can retain, in terms of existing ministers and those who could form part of a viable opposition in the next 4 years.
Miles has definitely grown in stature as this campaign has gone on, there would be a good argument for him to stay as opposition leader. If Labor ends up with a seat total in the high 30s, yeah it is a defeat, but it is hardly apocalyptic, you can rebuild from there.
And Princeplanet – you I totally respect and admire for your optimism and passion over the last few weeks, it would be an honour mate to have a beer or two with you, that applies Mick mate to you also.
Many of the LNPs marginal seats fall in LNP heartland especially gold coast with three LNP seats under 2%. If the LNPs improvement is more concentrated in seats they already have and Labor endures a swing but still hangs on in the most of its SEQ seats this could be a very close result. It will also be interesting if two of the three Townsville seats go to pro far Q Katter representatives. Don’t discount some lingering resentment toward Crisifulli for his cut and run job to leave the hot dusty languid plains of Townsville for the bright lights of the glitzy and sexy gold coast. Those from far Q often say Queensland starts at Bundaberg. Cairns will be one to watch as well as I’ve seen many comments from Cairns residents who distance themselves from the red hot anger and resentment of Townsville which is shaping up as a Darwin part 2.
“I definitely think that … what you’ve seen is a premier who has taken the view that ‘I might only have 10 months, and so I have to make it count’,” one Labor MP says.
“We’ve done things that in the past would have been deemed too big a risk, the 50c fares and other things. Now it’s like ‘why didn’t we think of this before?’.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/25/queensland-election-steven-miles-labor-polls
______________
Indeed. It shouldn’t have taken an election campaign and wipeout level polling to spur the government to give back to the constituency.
I imagine there would never have been an ‘its time’ factor if the alp had embraced their socialist roots, rather than cynically taking their voters for granted.
Somehow retaining Aspley would be great for Labor, Bart Mellish is one for the future.
I would guess Shannon Fentimen’s seat is no longer in trouble, we know how she is often talked up as a potential leader.
Miller? I have had a bit to do with Mark Bailey, he is a stellar bloke and a great MP, I would be shocked if the Greens beat him there.
I admired AP for her intelligence and energy but she had become tired from the constant media attacks and the government looked worn out , she seemed to jump at every right wing murdochracy/ stokes at 7 type attack when she should have been telling them to get ripped!!!. Miles didn’t appeal to a lot as a replacement but I always quite liked him. He may not have Beatties talk under water capabilities but he has Beatties sunny appeal. Qlders like positivity and Miles is super positive. If Labor is back in power sooner than we think it will be because they took risks and had some radical solutions. Maybe the Labor party elsewhere especially NSW can learn from Qld.
Miles definitely reminds me of Peter Beatie, he genuinely seems to enjoy campaigning, if nothing else I think he will win the youth vote.
In terms of regional QLD, the best for Labor at this stage would be retaining Gladstone and Maryborough and Cook, and if they are really lucky, Cairns. Anything around Townsville and Mackay looks gone.
I do agree Labor will lose Bundaberg, Nicklin, Hervey Bay and Caloundra.
I would guess a lot of resources have gone into Gaven, to help Megan Scanlon.
”
BTSayssays:
Friday, October 25, 2024 at 2:28 am
Bearing in mind 600,000 have already voted, does anyone know if this poll (and the Resolve one for that matter) includes those who have already voted, or if it’s just those who haven’t yet voted?
Makes a big difference to the overall picture potentially – definitely worse for LNP if it includes those who have already voted, as people on here (myself included) have been assuming a vote dividend for them coming from those who voted before the polls tightened so much.
For comparison, the poll details I looked at for the USA election from one pollster earlier today definitely was a figure for voting intention or already voted for, Harris/Trump. So assume it’s common practice for pollsters in order to paint as accurate a snapshot as possible.
”
The poll includes who have already voted, I guess. That makes sense because the doesn’t say or the other polls said that the poll doesn’t include already incly.
Only Courier mail did poll of people, who already voted previous to all these 3 polls this week.
The QLD state gov apparently struggles outside the state capital, the QLD state opp apparently struggles inside the state capital (and there’s KAP)?
Is it still 30 years back, give or take an hour?
Wondering if the internal polling reported is very out of date compared to the state polling.
Alternatively, do we have a situation where the abortion issue has helped the conservatives in a couple of seats but hurt them everywhere else? That movement has to be somewhere…
Miles in on News Breakfast – Seems tired (understandable), but not a convincing pitch.
Missed the Chrisafulli interview.
Well done Miles! I notice that apart from the extreme left and the extreme right, the people who were criticizing him at the start of the campaign have switched over the course of the campaign. He has been agile, forceful and principled.
Miles remains a dud and crime is still rampant and despite a stuff up on abortion since corrected LNP will win with a majority.Fed labor has also stuffed state qld chances.
I’ve got to say it again, the LNP ad campaign has looked like it was controlled from Labor HQ. I’ve finally seen an impactful ad attacking Miles in a negative way , now I think it’s unreasonable to say he was laughing at crime victims but all’s fair in advertising whether I like it or not but it’s coming too late. The LNP ads have been nebulous and throughout this campaign Miles has built up a laughing smiling sunny appeal that will deliver him back the premiership if not tomorrow, I think not too far into the future. The LNP have wasted money on highlighting a non existent tax and sad crime stories and in some cases wailing ladies where you are having trouble understanding what the point is. Labor’s campaign has been just about as good as you could hope for given the circumstances and it has diminished Crisifulli and his LNP even before he becomes Premier if indeed he does get over the line?
The Katter Party has been talked up in Townsville before and then fallen well short. The leaked polling seems remarkably ‘precise’. However, should Katter get up in Cairns and Townsville then it will be another nail in the Labor coffin. There will just be a shell, no organisation, no volunteers. Just more retreat from previously competitive areas.
”
Princeplanetsays:
Friday, October 25, 2024 at 6:55 am
I admired AP for her intelligence and energy but she had become tired from the constant media attacks and the government looked worn out , she seemed to jump at every right wing murdochracy/ stokes at 7 type attack when she should have been telling them to get ripped!!!. Miles didn’t appeal to a lot as a replacement but I always quite liked him. He may not have Beatties talk under water capabilities but he has Beatties sunny appeal. Qlders like positivity and Miles is super positive. If Labor is back in power sooner than we think it will be because they took risks and had some radical solutions. Maybe the Labor party elsewhere especially NSW can learn from Qld.
”
PrinceP
As you say, if LNP is concentrated in Gold Coast, Sunshine coast and Townsville and rural QLD, then if ALP is able to retain its seats in Brisbane and Fa North WLD, it could become a close election.
Yes I’ve got a strong feeling that LNP is on the defensive and Labor has the wind in its sails. Strange I’d be thinking that with LNP 2.5% ahead but it’s just a vibe you get. I’ve been watching elections since 1972 so I’ve seen a lot of them.
If Labor can retain Gaven – being a GC Seat – theyll likely be returned to Govt. Although not a Bellweather seat, I remember the Beattie Days – if you Win GC (even just 1), you win Govt.
“The Katter Party has been talked up in Townsville before and then fallen well short. The leaked polling seems remarkably ‘precise’. However, should Katter get up in Cairns and Townsville then it will be another nail in the Labor coffin. There will just be a shell, no organisation, no volunteers. Just more retreat from previously competitive areas.”
@Blackburnpseph
If KAP wins in Townsville and Cairns then it stops the LNP winning there too. It’s funny you equate KAP winning a couple of seats as the death of the Labor party lol. Yet you don’t equate this to the LNP being locked out of Hill and Hinchinbrook.
Actually it’s shame this crap is getting posted here. I expect this nonsense on federal blogs. The state forums the debate has been far more solid.
I’m getting hung parliament vibes, Is anyone else getting hung parliament vibes?
Ooooh – I see one of the resident RW charmers is getting a little jumpy.
Crime definitely has problematic pockets (which will absolutely hurt Labor in the regional centres), but crime is DOWN, youth crime (their most profound dog-whistle) is down more.
This is partly why the chest-thumping campaign is flopping in SEQ.
There’s definitely a sense that this election has all of a sudden become competitive. Still a probable LNP victory but expect it to be close now.
Miles has proven to be a far better political campaigner than I expected, given his fumbling performances as a Deputy Premier and Premier. Good on him.
But, beyond “saving some of the furniture”, I suspect it won’t end up affecting the result. 52.5-47.5 should still be a strong enough lead for the LNP to ensure an outright majority, but probably only a narrow one. Like davidwh, I strongly hope KAP doesn’t get the balance of power.
A good thing that the right wingers based pretty much their whole campaign around crime. Labor in oppostion can use it as a big stick to beat them with when the great turnaround fails to materialise.
Miles would probably be quite an effective opposition leader, but I must say Cameron Dick is really sharp too and has a more serious demeanor.
Given it looks like Trump might win in the US based on a rose-tinted public perception of his first term, I wonder if we will see unique electoral strategies emerge in the future around bringing back old incumbents. Maybe in 4 years Queenslanders will have a yearning for the good ol’ days of 50c fares and $1000 rebates and want Miles back…
jt1983: “crime is DOWN, youth crime (their most profound dog-whistle) is down more.”
——————————————————————————-
Not according to the ABS
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/recorded-crime-victims/2023#queensland
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/recorded-crime-offenders/latest-release#queensland
meher babasays:
Friday, October 25, 2024 at 10:16 am
______________________
Even if we ignore the experts that have weighed in on this and accept your interpretation of the data instead, the tough on crime strategy doesn’t work.
Tough on crime costs a fortune.
Tough on crime increases disadvantage and inequality.
Tough on crime increases overall crime rates.
Tough on crime increases rates of recidivism.
Tough on crime increases rates of revicimisation.
Tough on crime does not improve community safety.
Why are both parties pursuing tough on crime agendas then? Solipsism. An unwillingness to tell it how it is. Cowardice. Pick your poison
Banana republic: I can’t see Trump winning because of one simple thing, if he failed to win as an incumbent president how will he win this time. I think he has too much lead in his saddlebags, that said I think Kamala Harris will face a tough time as president with the fractured nature of America.
PN
You missed my point. Labor are being hollowed out in regional Australia. If they outsource the ‘opposition’ to the LNP role to the KAP then their primary vote falls even further and it makes it harder for them to ever win again. Look at Herbert, the ALP vote was 44% in 2007 and was 21.6% in 2022. That also makes it harder to win senate seats. The ALP have outsourced to the Shooter and Independents in regional Victoria and inland NSW and are coming 3rd or 4th in some urban seatsallun. Fewer votes, lower morale, fewer volunteers, fewer members – it becomes a vicious circle and that it is why the ALP primary vote is spiralling down to the 30% range.
The two party system is kaputt.
Bring on the new!
Win or lose, Miles has done so much with the rotten hand he’s been dealt, just look at the comparison between him and Allan in Victoria. I think it would be a mistake for Labor to not run him at the next election, but I’m secretly hoping the LNP sinks their own boat with the abortion mumbo jumbo. Hell hath no fury, etc.
Griff – yes, Newspoll has gone to the 0.5 on the TPP measure in final pre-election polls at both a state and federal level before. They never do it on their regular polls. The federal final pre election ones have also often been larger than usual samples to try and improve accuracy, perhaps some of the state ones have larger samples as well.
The crime rate is down Queensland over all, although number and rate are bothgoingup currently. But this is typical of how the government has been abusing statistics. Crime has more than doubled in Townsville:
https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/queensland-crime-statistics/
Places like Cairns, Rockhampton and Mackay are not far behind. And that’s just what’s reported. Actual crime is very much higher because the police are so stretched people no longer bother reporting a lot of more minor stuff. I’ve had people in my house on three occasions in the last couple of years. Crime is actually very sharply down in Brisbane, depending on where you look. The fact that crime is down in Brisbane doesn’t somehow make things better if you live in Townsville. They’ve done similar stuff with hospital figures, using very good performance in Brisbane to pretend that somehow offsets absolutely dreadful performance in regional Queensland.
Assuming that 52.4 (ignoring the .05) TPP for the LNP is correct, that is still a swing of 5.6% from 2020.
Of the 13 ALP held seats within that margin only Aspley is in Brisbane, and Redlands adjacent to Brisbane. A change in the other 11 assuming ALP could hold those two would, give a ALP 40, LNP 44 scenario (assuming no ALP to Greens). With a bigger swing outside SEQ, I still expect an LNP majority, but have revised my previous estimate of ALP up from 22-28 (so say 25) to 35. I still can’t see them doing much better than that, but that is very good compared to how things were looking three weeks ago.
Large Indian influx here in Mansfield, (margin 6.8%) heavily supporting LNP candidate Pinky Singh, but I have no way of knowing how many of them are entitled to vote. It is only the second time in 32 years that there has been an election corflute in the front yard, of a property in the street in which we live.