Further indications of a Labor recovery in Queensland from a Resolve Strategic poll in the Brisbane Times, putting them fully nine points higher off a dismal mid-year starting point to record 32% of the primary vote, with the Liberal National Party down four to 40%. The pollster breaks with its usual practice of not dealing in preferences, finding the LNP leading 53-47 on a respondent-allocated measure and 52-48 using preference flows from past elections – a strikingly narrow lead considering Labor in New South Wales failed to get a majority with 54.3%. Notably, the poll has response options reflecting the candidates in the respondent’s electorate, thereby removing the all-too-popular generic independent response and causing the independent result to drop from 9% to 2%. This did not yield a dividend for minor parties: the Greens and One Nation, who have candidates in every seat, are respectively down one to 11% and up one to 9%.
A leadership approval question emphasising “performance in recent weeks” produced a distinctly favourable result for Steven Miles, including in comparison with the recent YouGov poll whose survey period partly overlapped (October 10 to 16 for that poll, October 14 to 19 for this one). Miles registered a combined very good and good rating of 48%, with poor and very poor at 38%. While this had the edge on David Crisafulli’s 44% and 37% lead, Crisafulli retained a slight 39-37 edge on preferred premier, though this was greatly reduced from his 40-27 lead in the mid-year poll, which was conducted from July through to September. The sample for the poll was 1003.
It is interesting reading the opinions and shows what a disastrous job Labor has done over the past thirty years. They have split the state into SEQ and everywhere else.
We have everywhere else that has been at the forefront of Labor’s long term cutbacks of services who now hate labor, then we have SEQ that have benefited from Labor raping of the regions for money to spend to give to SEQ everything they desire.
Running a state is like a farmer running his land. When the farmer spends a lot of money improving one plot of land, then that land fends for itself and they move onto the next plot. Labor are just endlessly piling money into SEQ and that is why SEQ votes Labor, why wouldn’t you. There is no point pretending that people actually think of other people outside their tribe.
It is why Queensland needs a system of government that gives large population areas less political power in some way to balance out the greed and selfishness these big concentrations of people eventually have.
The alternative is split the state, but SEQ will not give up their cash cow.
Jolly Jumbuck:
“… shows what a disastrous job Labor has done over the past thirty years.”
So ‘disastrous’ that Queenslanders have elected Labor governments at 11 of the past 12 elections. 😉
And the one time that they didn’t, quickly realised and rectified their mistake.
JJ: “Running a state is like a farmer running his land.”
Er, no, it really isn’t. 🙂
“And the one time that they didn’t, quickly realised and rectified their mistake.”
Again that was the south east corner that could not handle a bit of their luxurious lifestyle being cut back.
Labor have added over 40 000 new public servants in the past nine years, but yet the hospitals are struggling with a lack of staff, the police have a lack of staff, the schools have a lack of staff.
So turns out what labor have done is ramp up employment in non essential bureaucratic jobs. Jobs that create no wealth and in fact are wealth destroyers. Those jobs need to go, but it is a pity thanks to SEQ they are now highly protected. The incompetence in the Qld public service these days is astounding. A lot of it is hidden. Did you know the bureaucracy in the emergency services bought fire trucks for rural brigades and now they are removing passenger seats from these fire trucks because the trucks were designed that heavy, or they bought too light of trucks that they are overloaded with three people in the cab? Big waste of money there alone thanks to the protected Qld public service.
Nothing will change until some disaster befalls that the government of the time can simply not borrow and spend their way out of the problem.
There will never be enough staff whilst the population Ponzi scheme federally labor is running continues.
Public sector unions always bleat to increase their membership at taxpayers expense.
Two days until a LNP victory….
“We have everywhere else that has been at the forefront of Labor’s long term cutbacks of services”
You do realise Campbell Newman cut 14, 000 public service positions including frontline staff as Premier?
“The alternative is split the state, but SEQ will not give up their cash cow.”
KAP has been successful in pushing separate North Queensland state idea just to polarise for support. Like the Greens they can promise world because they know they will never be in the position to deliver. Nor do they have any serious interest pursuing this either if they hold the balance of power either.
You do realise Campbell Newman cut 14, 000 public service positions including frontline staff as Premier?
3,000 were in Q-Build, weren’t doing much to start with.
I doubt they cut any cops.
What about Labor and cutting midwife service in the country, though?
As one of the LNP asked
“What are they sposed to do, cross their legs?”
edit: So much for Women’s reproductive health services under Labor?
———————————-
That issue alone exposes Labor as bad faith actors.
Sure, they’ll go to the wall to support termination.
Actually having a baby?
Money’s too tight to mention there.
The city versus regional yarn is boring. Living in regional towns beats the daylights out of living in Brisbane. Getting around is easier, the roads are good and relatively uncongested, hospitals are nearby with accessible parking, schools nearby and often more community oriented etc. Except by mischievous politics, how can people ignore the massive funding going into regional roads, hospitals, emergency services, policing, schools etc?
The usual challenge with regional – and more so rural and remote – services is staffing. There are often great incentives in place but even then they struggle. State governments cannot just create qualified people willing and able to go anywhere.
This will be the LNP’s challenge from Saturday and, as much as I do not want them in government, I wish them well in addressing the challenges. That given, I expect their usual combination of cuts and greatly lowering expectations in public services (as many do not even believe in public services!), will not yield results.
I am still expecting an LNP majority. I am relieved a lot of the ALP furniture appears saved.
”
Ashasays:
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 12:42 am
The reasons Labor have been able to make such hay out of the abortion issue are because:
A) Crisafulli is unable to give a straight answer about his party’s intention on the matter.
B) An increasing number of influential LNP members and preselected LNP candidates are openly anti-choice.
Had Crisafulli simply said outright “We respect a woman’s right to choice, and will not be introducing or voting in favour of any legislation that restricts abortion access in Queensland” when Katter first brought it up, it would have been immediately nipped in the bud. That he cannot do that suggests that he either has little objection to such a bill passing with his party’s support, or that he doesn’t believe he will be able to compel enough members of his caucus to vote against such a bill. In either case, that means there is a reasonable chance that if Katter or someone else were to introduce a private members bill to that effect while the LNP hold a majority in the assembly, it would become law.
Labor are well within their right to campaign as hard on this issue as they see fit. If the people of Queensland think they are being opportunistic or engaging in a groundless scare campaign, they will punish the government for it at the ballot box. The shift in polling would suggest, however, that a decent swath of the population agree with the government that this something worth being scared about.
”
Make not mistake LNP wants to implement Project 2025(which includes abortion rights) in QLD and want to see how it goes.
We know that QLD LNP is most MAGA LNP when compared to other state branches of LNP in Australia.
Ven if they do Labor will be back in 2028 to fix it all up. We are not the US.
Me? I retain a little hope the LNP has learned a lesson from 2012. But I am a glass half full type of person.
LNP were never repealing Abortion laws, no doubt some would like to, but that’s different from actually doing something.
Their problem is not being clear where they stand, due to pandering for votes.
Crisafulli hasn’t really closed the issue down, now he’s saying he supports a woman’s right to choose, but is opposed to 3rd trimester terminations, which is what the 2018 Law legalised.
—————————————–
So, he’s still trapped in the mud because he doesn’t get it.
All he had to do is say he supports abortion on demand, which puts the Labor Party on the spot, since all their rhetoric is based on the proposition that 3rd trimester terminations are due to rape, incest, monstrous fetal defects, all of which aren’t true.
On the dreaded Campbell Newman Government, they had 78 of the 89 seats, did nothing about abortion, which has effectively been On Demand in Qld since the 80s.
So, the issue for the LNP long term is, while they’re never changing Abortion laws, they don’t get the issue or why they should tacitly support abortion on demand, which is what they’ve done ayway.
https://johnmenadue.com/act-labor-holds-on-but-are-wheels-coming-off-the-albanese-re-election-campaign/
“A week later
, Queenslanders go to the election. The polls seem to indicate that the Labor government will fall, and that most will blame federal factors, not least the cost of living and interest rates. Labor has survived in office in Queensland for most of the past two decades. This has involved being ruthlessly pragmatic on practical management and government, even in frank opposition to national Labor policies. The federal Treasurer, Jim Chalmers is a Queenslander, but his charms and his abilities do not appear to have done much to bring Queensland – fundamentally, like the ACT, a state whose default setting at state level is Labor ‑ into the federal fold.
Many federal parliamentarians are given to deriding the ACT as a little Lilliput, a glorified town council, or as an inner suburban consciousness transplanted into the middle of NSW. (Witness, for example, its Yes vote on the Voice.) Actually, the ACT is a bigger and much more important economy than Tasmania, even if it is not (thank God) lavished with Albanese football stadiums. But the loss of government in Queensland cannot be dismissed as some typical Queensland eccentricity, unimportant in the national calculus. Nor will it be without its impacts on federal economic management, particularly over energy and the environment. It is hard enough to get any sort of unity from mostly Labor governments, as umpteen prime ministers over the years will attest. But when a state is of the opposite persuasion and a federal election is nigh, any amount of mischief and sabotage can occur. As it happens, the leader of the opposition, Peter Dutton is a favourite son of Queensland and may have some cause to make life extra difficult.
What’s worse from Albanese’s point of view is that a bad result in Queensland will galvanise nervous federal backbenchers, who have translated the impacts of any swings onto their own electorates. The discipline of the federal Labor caucus, with the singular exception of Senator Payman, has been remarkable over the past two terms of parliament. Win (in 2022) or lose (2019) There has been very little in the way of splits, disunity, or open dissent within the party, being used by its enemies to suggest the party cannot govern itself. In very recent times, the increasing nervousness about Albanese’s performance has caused an increase in soft dissent (for example about gambling advertising, and the refusal to contemplate changes to negative gearing) without causing significant problems. But if polls deteriorate, some members will realise that only desperate action can save their seats. The only thing they can do is to raise their profile — which, usually can be done only by clashing with government announcements.”
“On the dreaded Campbell Newman Government, they had 78 of the 89 seats, did nothing about abortion, which has effectively been On Demand in Qld since the 80s.
So, the issue for the LNP long term is, while they’re never changing Abortion laws, they don’t get the issue or why they should tacitly support abortion on demand, which is what they’ve done ayway.”
@Badthinker
Your post is misleading. The abortion laws were updated in 2018 included decriminalising it and updated the cut off point for abortions. This all happened after the Newman government was removed from office. The issue is repealing those laws back which Mp’s and canidates have expressed in favor of and the overwhelming majority of LNP Mp’s voted against the laws originally. Your suggestion the Newman government didn’t touch abortion laws so it’s a non-issue is irrelevant.
Abortion on demand had been the norm in Qld since the 80s, if Newman Gov’t had been ideologically driven they woulda enforced existing laws, but they didn’t.
In light of that, what chance of Crisafulli, a bloke so moderate he could be an ALP candidate, ever acting?
LNP is essentially conservative, and conservatism is all about preserving the status quo, which is now the 2018 Abortion Laws.
Where every Government of Qld that included the National Party has come unstuck, usually very quickly, is by oppressing ordinary people, particularly in Brisbane.
Service delivery though, yeah, they’re good at that.
Do political ads still stop tonight?
Not sure, i’ve been getting them on YouTube.
Milesy’s ads are pretty slick, LNP ads look more like Labor ads from 10 years ago.
They appear to be targeting Heath Workers, indicating Labor has done a poor job with the hospitals.
Hospitals are Greens/Labor strongholds, perhaps the plan is to draw Greens preferences away from Labor in Greenslopes, S.B. and McConnel?
I presume we won’t get another poll until Newspoll on Friday night/Saturday morning.
Steven Miles is visiting 30 seats in 48 hours.
As Bogan says above, if Labor can save some of their furniture, especially in Brisbane, it won’t be a total blowout like in 2012. I think we all can agree that a lot of Labor seats in regional Qld will fall.
David I think they stopped last night but from what I understand the ad ban does not apply to online sources like YouTube. So as an LNP supporter you will have to put up with the abortion ads until election day. As an ALP supporter my burden will the doctor couple saying a non existent tax will be end of the world as we know it and the horror crime stuff replete with a lady howling !!!!
LNP has blown it.
Crisafulli latest is he supports Choice, against Late Term Abortions.
Since the 2018 Act legalised late term abortions, he still hasn’t take a stand.
Sure, he was never going to take action anyway, but Katter has wedged him and he’s unable to say what would happen, let alone what should happen.
This is still a huge issue, I just can’t see Qld voting in a Party led by such a weak man.
Yeah, nah. As I’ve written in another thread, I don’t think Queensland is a natural ALP state anymore. I think there’s been some fairly fundamental shifts with migration and demographics that make it now a more natural fit for the LNP, just the same as has already happened at a federal political level. Both Coasts are long term LNP strongholds, outer metro is currently LNP and I’m pretty certain we are looking at a very permanent shift in regional Queensland. Queensland isn’t like the other states, you can win the city and win the state. Brisbane is too small, and as recent internal migration data has shown, the number of people entitled to vote in inner city Brisbane appears to now be shrinking, just like happened in Sydney about 15 years ago and Melbourne 5 years ago.
Personally, I think it’s probably going to be a long term LNP government. The way back for the ALP will be the outer suburbs.
I’ll be fine Princeplanet I just won’t watch YouTube
Queensland is showing what happens when you set your self up as a small target and it doesn’t work.
One crack shows the lnp is found wanting in other areas
I predicted a LNP Minority Government in December. Could be a good year predictions wise for moi.
I don’t know if Miles will win but he has done a huge effort getting Labor competitive again in Qld.
Meanwhile some are rewriting history, rather than making it.
————————————————-
“You do realise Campbell Newman cut 14, 000 public service positions including frontline staff as Premier?
3,000 were in Q-Build, weren’t doing much to start with.”
————————————————–
I worked in a management role in Qld Main Roads a few years before Newman gained power and sacked most of the work contracting arm in QTMR, then known as RoadTek. These were engineers and builders doing basic road design, construction and maintenance.
This was pure economic vandalism, masquerading as economics. Qld Main Roads in the 1990s and 2000s was one of the most efficient works organisations I ever worked in, public or private. Roadtek had an outstanding record of delivering projects on budget, and rarely lost competitive tenders on price. With good in-house skills and no profit margin, they were almost unbeatable.
So why did Newman destroy an efficient road builder in a state that needs roads badly? Simple cronyism. With RoadTek out of the way, Newman’s corporate mates had an easier time winning work. Prices for road projects in Qld have been going up faster than inflation ever since.
Steven Miles, against all expectations including mine, has totally outcampaigned Crisafulli.
So why did Newman destroy an efficient road builder in a state that needs roads badly? Simple cronyism. With RoadTek out of the way, Newman’s corporate mates had an easier time winning work. Prices for road projects in Qld have been going up faster than inflation ever since.
No idea about Roadtek, though i’d heard of it.
Q-Build could tender on any State Government job under $8 million, they might have been good once as the Department of Works, but it was a joke by 2012, after 23 years of Labor Goverment.
A foreman could sign off on a Variation up to $10,000, without oversight.
Any possible issues there?
Badthinker
I never worked in Q-Build, so can’t comment.
When Newman axed all the works units in 2012 it was 14 years since Rob Borbidge had been LNP premier up to 1998, not 23 years.
In QTMR nobody could sign off on their own costs or expenses, not even the DG. It was a tight run ship.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-31/22c000-jobs-to-be-axed-in-qld-transport/4166238
To think that the tightening only effects Brisbane is silly.
Any tightening will effect any Qld seats that are inplay.
Still think 50/50 chance of a hung parliament
Current cross bench
7
Possible cross bench
Probably double that
Hung parliament still 7/1 so if it’s a 50/50 chance then that is excellent odds. Noted that Labor have come in to $8
I spose LNP could govern in Minority with Ashby and Strelow, which would be good for Rocky, but they’d be up against Katter, Greens and Labor all looking to skin them alive, plus Murdoch pressure would be unrelenting on Strelow to prove she’s a real independent and Ashby’s innate flakiness won’t see him last long.
That supposes LNP wins 45 seats, which is hard to believe now.
————————————————
Hard to believe, Labor shut down the Rockhampton Railway Workshops, yet they still kept on voting Labor up there.
————————————————–
$8 about right for ALP majority, they’re odds on to be minority Government, imo.
Latest:
Douglas and Milkosays:
Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 1:59 pm
…
An inexperienced front bench could be the achilles heal for the next potential LNP government. Let’s face it some of them featured in the Newman government. Either have left politics (Lawrence Springborg, Jeff Seeney) or lost their seats (Scott Emerson, Ian Walker). Even those remaining from the Newman years have moved down the pecking order of seniority (Tim Nicholls, John-Paul Langbroek).
While part of the problem was letting Campbell Newman get free rein in the last LNP government. So frequently in opposition and not used processes of codes and conventions of government probably also contributed to their downfall. This is exactly the same dilemma they face now.
From Mr Antony Green’s blog…
“(UPDATED Thursday 24 October 12:30pm – after eight days of pre-polling with no pre-polling on the weekend this year. Totals now at 1,230,720 or 33.4% of enrolment, up from 28.8% to the same day in 2020. Applications for postal votes have closed and the rate of applications is down from 26.8% in 2020 to 18.8% in 2024. So far 22.5% of postal votes have been returned.)”
So overall there will be, proportionally, about 30% less postal votes this election, compared to last election. There should therefore generally be less variation to each candidates share of votes as counting proceeds each day after the election night final figures are given?
Interesting numbers Fargo. Pre-polling is up so we should get a reasonable picture some time on Saturday night.
david
Because of high pre-polling and mail voting, I think LNP will win with comfortable majority.
Ven my guess is 52 for LNP. But depends on whether the trend has continued and it gets close to 50/50 for Saturday.
Queensland voters
Think about this if you have not voted already. OLD LNP are the most ardent supporters of Trump and his MAGA Republican party.
Trump is called a fascist and dangerous to US by his own ex-cabinet members. And QLD LNP is associating with that kind of person. Hence, think of their mindset.
Whom you vote is upto you but changes to Abortion rights bill will be introduced by Rob Katter if not by LNP and if not immediately and Crisafulli is on record saying that he will allow conscience vote of LNP MPs regarding Abortion rights bill and most of LNP MPs and LNP candidates are in favour of restricting abortion rights.
Crisafulli has announced 6.8 billion in public service cuts – worse than Newmans 4 billion!
Good on him.
If he’s going down, at least he’s going down swinging.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-commonest-arguments-for-opv-are.html
The Commonest Arguments For OPV Are Overrated
Did he announce or was that the costings released?
Mick the costings have been released and the $6.8 billion refers to savings in consultants fees. Not sure over what timeframe that refers to but it is a hell of a large amount of consulting fees.
Just checked and the savings refer to consultants and contractors over a four year period.
Davidwh, sure hope contractors doesn’t include people on temp contracts (bet it does) because that is how a huge amount of direct contributor employees (the ones that do the work) are engaged in QGov. Oh well, 4 years of all state run services being completely understaffed I’m sure is manageable :/
“but it is a hell of a large amount of consulting fees.”
You have to remember Labor ministers seem incapable of ever making a decision, and instead have no problems handing billions to “consultants” to make the decision for them. Labor never own a decision the government makes, they always have a scapegoat ready.
As for the competency of the Qld public service. The managers need to all be sacked and replaced by people actually competent at their job, and those new managers need to change the system completely.
I think most people would be aware of dealing with Queensland Transport. Probably the most visual example of bureaucracy most will deal with. There is a form for everything, probably even forms to get a form. it is an extremely complicated journey when ever you visit that bureaucracy. A person I know is currently being audited by government bureaucrats, they told me these bureaucrats have zero knowledge outside of what the book says. If the book says the sky is green, then the sky is green.
I am currently waiting two years for a reply to a single page form from the office of state revenue. I had to go through the same process three years ago, and it took over two years then as well.
Queensland is an absolute mess under Labor.
Banquo911 the papers refer to cutting back/out the budgeted 12% annual increase in consultants and contractors over the next four years. If that is true then they aren’t reducing PS numbers. The question is how do they fill the gap.
If all this is accurate what shocks me is that based on those numbers the government is spending something like $20 billion a year on consulting and contracting. Seems a hell off a lot.
Having been employed as a temp contractor for 3 seperate qld govt departments at ao level I can near as well guarantee this is cuts to public servants. They engage ao2-ao5 as third party contractors. These are the face of the government type roles. There will be no, zip, zilch service provision under chrisafullis lnp
Besides the usual selection of political leaflets in out letter box during this campaign, (here in Mansfield) we have recently received one from “Australians for Prosperity”. Have they had any involvement elsewhere?
They are obviously very anti-ALP..Does anyone know any more about their leaders past political involvement / connections if any?
https://www.australiansforprosperity.com/our-leadership.
Some understandable wishful thinking in Labor ranks, but sadly from my perspective change of govt is inevitable. Greens supposed inner-city surge not happening, at least not in McConnel, and interesting to see how they re-group as a party after failing to win big, just like they predict every election….
the fun begins when the LNP has to actually govern while its leaders seems to be getting pulled in so many different directions by a fractured party machine… which is promising instant results in tricky policy fields where there are no easy fixes and where they’re most likely trailing public opinion