Following a week in which abortion unexpectedly took centre stage of the Queensland election campaign, The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports the issue “has helped Labor’s cause in Brisbane, where it faces losses to the LNP and the Greens”. The evidence for this would appear to be Labor internal polling suggesting Grace Grace is well placed to retain the Greens target of McConnel, outpolling them 27% to 24% with the LNP on 34%. This is quite a bit different from polling the column published from a different source last week, which had the Greens on 37.9%, the LNP on 27.4% and Labor on 27.2%. A “senior Labor insider” is further quoted saying a party that feared a near wipeout regionally, leaving it only with Gladstone outside of Brisbane, now sees “glimmers of hope in Cairns, Rockhampton and Maryborough”.
The other big event for the week was the closure of nominations and ballot paper draws, revealing a decline in the total number of candidates to 525 (5.6%) from 597 (6.4%) in 2020. A breakdown from Antony Green shows Labor, the LNP, the Greens and One Nation are contesting all seats, Family First is putting in its biggest effort in some time with 59 candidates, with lesser numbers from Legalise Cannabis, Katter’s Australian Party, Animal Justice and the Libertarians.
Also of note: the website Australian Election Forecasts, operating off an admittedly shallow pool of data, calculates an 85.8% chance the LNP will have a “clear path to government” compared with 4.4% for Labor, the median predicted outcome being 55 seats for the LNP, 29 for Labor, three each for the Greens and Katter’s Australian Party and one independent.
It’s a campaign to scare people into changing their vote so it is a scare campaign. Just like youth crime is a scare campaign being used by the LNP.
It’s up to voters to vote according to which scare campaign they believe or find most relevant.
Qld has effectively had Abortion on Demand for about 50 years.
Just not in the 3rd Trimester
unless there’s a urgent reason
.
Abortion activists are always bleating about Abortion to save the life of the mother, but these type of abortions have always been performed without legal intervention.
Princeplanet:
The Katters have said they will be definitely introducing a bill on abortion
If they do, it won’t be just to repeal Palaszczuk’s Law,
It will be to wind it back to the point that few or no LNP members will vote for it.
Then Katter and some bush ALP candidates will go to the 2028 Election painting the LNP as pro Abortion.
Never trust anything the Katter Party says or promises, they’re cancer.
Re the SA abortion vote it was the upper house only, still had to go to the lower house if it passed, and also one Liberal being against it and having to be paired killed it off (though there was a lot of murky business surrounding the pairing arrangements).
The problem with Queensland is it is unicameral *and* single seat so it is so easy for one major party to win total control and every election there can be culture war items up for grabs (at least in theory) because of that. Queensland really should do something about that (I say this as one who was born there under the dark shadow of Joh!)
In practice, apart from the 1938 Transport Act, parts of which allowed the Police to declare as few as 3 people being in a house that 2 of them weren’t residents in could constitute a illegal assembly, there hasn’t been any extreme Legislation passed by it’s unicameral Parliament since the Upper House was Abolished in 1922.
The Bjelke Government granted 100 year Deeds
to all Aboriginal Settlements, at a time when developers were pushing to have Aborigines moved off Great Palm Island so it could be developed for Tourism.
A Upper House controlled by Labor would have stymied that for sure, the Palm Group also includes Orpheus Island, i’ve read that Great Palm is the most beatiful island in that group.
Kirksdark : saw your comment about vote share when Bjelke Petersen was leader of Lib/ country party for over 20 years . Not as I recalled so I looked it up.
Election 27/5/72 Labor 46.75% 33 Seats. Lib/Country party 42.23% 47 seats.
Many CP seats had 10,000 to 15,000 voters, Labor seats 50,000 to 70,000. That was early in his reign and redistributions happened after every election.
In the end, L/CP vote was less than 30% and they still got back.
The Fitzgerald enquiry changed all that with many conservative politicians jailed, joined by the Joh appointed CP member and Commissioner of Police. Joh was placed on trial but hung jury saw him walk away. Foreman of the jury was Clive Palmer’s campaign boss last time around.
Since those unbelievable days, Borbidge and Newman both got in for one term.
Polls show Crucifooli will be next. My guess is that Labor will finish with a few less seats than L/NP have now. Billions spent and budgeted for Renewable energy projects in the bush has probably cost Labor big outside SEQld.
Many CP seats had 10,000 to 15,000 voters, Labor seats 50,000 to 70,000. That was early in his reign and redistributions happened after every election.
Mate, that’s total rubbish.
Gregory
had the lowest enrolment, about 6,000. It was in the rural Zone.
Brisbane seats like Bulimba
, South Brisbane
had about 25,000.
That Zoning was legislated in 1950 during the Hanlon
Government when Gregory and all the other Rural Zone Seats had ALP members.
Bjelke sometimes spoke of how hard Hanlon had been on the CP members, he wasn’t going to help Labor out there.
I don’t think I am wrong in what seats could return nats.
What of cook and the other 3 Cairns seats
What of the 3 Townsville seats?
What is there is say 35 liberals and 30 nats?
Sorry Badthinker. Yes, although most CP seats were in the 10 to 15 thousand range, the Rurals were below that down to 6,000. Many of the seats Labor held were in the 15 to 25,000 elector range. None were above 50,000, my bad.
Badthinker
“Qld has effectively had Abortion on Demand for about 50 years.
Just not in the 3rd Trimester
unless there’s a urgent reason
.
Abortion activists are always bleating about Abortion to save the life of the mother, but these type of abortions have always been performed without legal intervention.”
I am not an abortion activist but my wife (whom I refer to here as xanthippe) works in the Adelaide Women’s and Childrens Hospital. The current practice of obstetrics including abortion procedures where necessary are carried out by doctors with the informed consent of patients (i.e. the pregnant women).
There are many rules that cover this in every hospital, to protect both doctor and patient from both an ethical and legal viewpoint. In this regard “patient” includes the foetus if it is old enough to realistically survive if delivered at that time.
Any suggestion that women are having late term abortions now in any Australian hospital without good reason is just not true. There are pro-abortion activists out there and also anti-abortion activists. Some in the latter group lie a lot.
The current system works well for the health of both mother and child. That is because it has been left in the hands of those in a best position to make the decision, the doctor and patient. Any attempt to change that is religious zealotry and ought to be opposed IMO.
Any suggestion that women are having late term abortions now in any Australian hospital without good reason is just not true.
Such as?
Ectopic pregnancy would be a good reason, has any woman with that condition ever been denied necessary medical help, going back to 1788?
I doubt it.
Decisions about women’s health during pregnancy should be made by the women themselves with the support and care of those with genuine expertise in this area. You will find that some of the highest support for abortion in the community, pro rata, is among those who care for the most complex and difficult issues presenting in pregnancy: the RANZCOG. There are sound clinical reasons for this, not least because obstetricians know how fast and how disastrously a pregnancy can go wrong. Pregnancy itself increases a woman’s health risks at every stage.
As Socrates says, later trimester pregnancy terminations in public hospitals occur when the foetus has a condition incompatiable with life, or when there is a risk to either foetus or mother that is mitigated by early delivery. Most of these are wanted pregnancies, whether originally planned or not, and this is traumatic enough for all concerned without the prospect of reasonable care being litigated and prosecuted based on voting choices made by people who think ectopic pregnancy is a late-trimester issue.
Badthinker is correct in that abortion on demand was effectively available in Queensland, ex officio, for years before the formal repeal of the late 19th c statute. Most of us are not keen to see less progressive new status quo.
Most of these are wanted pregnancies, whether originally planned or not, and this is traumatic enough for all concerned without the prospect of reasonable care being litigated and prosecuted based on voting choices made by people who think ectopic pregnancy is a late-trimester issue.
Thanks.
The issue is healthy babies killed in the womb, isn’t it.
Has there ever been a prosecution relating to a fetus that was unviable?
Sure, a woman has a right to say
“I’m ending this pregnancy”
Buit if the fetus, aka baby will be born alive and viable, how does she have the right to terminate it’s life?
And if the issue is really doctors fears of litigation, in other words, insurance companies, why not say so?
Isn’t the issue what is the legal position on when life begins? Basically that is determined by legislation in each separate jurisdiction.
Can you kill something that legally doesn’t live?
Lots to think about in all that. It’s up to society to decide.
Mr Ed @ #206 Thursday, October 17th, 2024 – 11:45 am
According to my reference in the works of Colin Hughes, the 1972 Queensland 2pp was:
C/LP: 460,362 votes for 50.8%
Labor: 446,585 votes for 49.2%.
A narrow victory perhaps, but it was an election decided by full preferential voting, not primary votes. And the preferences gave victory to the Coalition, as crappy as it was.
But I do agree it was under pretty unfair conditions. To win the additional 9 seats they needed to gain government, Labor would have needed a 2pp result of 53-47 or greater according to the pendulum.
Isn’t the issue what is the legal position on when life begins?
Why try to answer that question?
It just sets out to make the perfect the enemy of the good.
From memory, Dr. Peter Bayliss in Qld had to publicly declare he was going to perform an abortion at his clinic at a set time and challenge the Qld Police to show up and arrest him, which they were forced to do.
Years later, not long before he died, he claimed to have performed tens of thousands of abortions and his reason wasn’t poor, suffering women, it was that there are too many people in the world.
Look it up, then try to get your head around it.
I don’t need to get my head around it Badthinker I lived through it.
Today, I completed a postal vote for the Queensland election. I’m in the division of Mudgerraba. There are five candidates: Tory, Labor, Greens, Family First, and PHON. I put Labor first, followed by the Greens, the Tory, Family First, and PHON. The Tory (Ros Bates) has held the seat since 2009 & has a TPP buffer of around 10%. She’ll easily be reelected. Federally I’m in the seat of Wright, held by Scott Buchholz. I must relocate as since I first voted, I’ve been in solid Tory or Country Party divisions – much to my chagrin.
Move over to Pumicestone Mavis. We change elected parties each election.
davidwh:
Thursday, October 17, 2024 at 9:21 pm
I’m packing up as we speak.
LNP turn this election Mavis. See you soon 🙂
Given Labor’s scare campaign against the LNP about abortion rights it’s interesting to note Labor is preferencing Katter above the LNP. Given that Katter is the only party that has confirmed they intend to reverse abortion rights, principles only goes so far I guess.
If I were Labor in Qld I.would place onp.last and the lnp second last.
Funny the lnp cannot agree to place onp last on all occasions
“Just not in the 3rd Trimester
”
Abortions in the 3rd trimester simply by ‘agreement’ between doctor and mother (rather than for some life-threatening reason, which the whole Western world allows for pretty much), sounds very extreme.
Queensland must have one of the most liberal abortion laws in the world.
It doesn’t, or not as implied. The legislation and the clinical guidelines are readily available, though frequently misinterpreted by lay activitists to suit their agenda. TOP in Queensland beyond 22 weeks requires the agreement of two doctors, and in practice this means two senior hospital specialists. As Socrates has already explained so eloquently, this is not undertaken for frivolous reasons, rather because something is seriously amiss, and it is rare.
The majority of terminations now are before 9 weeks, mostly medically induced, and the vast majority of surgical terminations occur before 14 weeks, with very few stand-alone clinics accredited to perform procedures beyond this; beyond 19 weeks it is a hospital procedure. As gestation increases past the first and very early second trimester TOP is increasingly rare, and overwhelmingly because of medical issues arising, as above. In so much as I appear to agree with Badthinker wrt to the pre-2018 situation it is because the majority of the population, the medical profession and the legal system were in a sort of tacit agreement in respect of sensible and compassionate access. There is a lot of fabulist and manipulative nonsense in anti-choice circles about healthy later trimester babies being terminated on a whim, an insult to everyone who has ever been involved in the devastating decision to end a pregnancy under extraordinary and devastating medical circumstances. On-demand late second and third trimester abortion for frivolous reasons just does not happen. Anyone suggesting that ectopic pregnancy is a third trimester issue has outed themselves as having no clue at all.
Context: I was a medical student in the 1980s, and have cared for pregnancies all my working life. I have a genetic issue which can result in a baby with a condition incompatible with life, had a complicated second pregnancy, and was advised against a third. The current laws and thresholds are a compassionate acknowledgement of reality for women and their partners. The cut-off date for on-demand TOP, 22 weeks, also acknowledges the fact that major foetal abnormalities are still often not diagnosed until the routine morphology scan at 19-20 weeks, and allows time and consideration for the grief and the logistics involved in the decision to end the pregnancy.
I am so tired of reading uniformed opinion by people who have no real knowledge of this area and after watching what is occurring in the USA have genuine concerns for women’s health practice if the existing provisions are repealed. Those agitating against abortion would do well to apply their zeal to early childhood health and education more general, but in practice are often voting against best practice and better funding there as well.
Returning you to other matters.
“Given Labor’s scare campaign against the LNP about abortion rights it’s interesting to note Labor is preferencing Katter above the LNP. Given that Katter is the only party that has confirmed they intend to reverse abortion rights, principles only goes so far I guess.”
@davidwh
It’s not a scare campaign by Labor. KAP was the one that raised and it caught the media’s attention on the issue. Actually Robbie Katter even suggested it wasn’t his intention to use this as a central issue. He said a journalist asked a question and he responded to it.
It’s funny you bring this up. But say nothing about LNP preferencing the Greens to remove Jackie Trad in South Brisbane in 2020. Despite the LNP warning voters of Labor/Greens minority government.
David Crisafulli is refusing to say if the LNP MPs can have a conscience vote. And considering only three of their Mp’s voted against the original legislation of decriminalising abortion that promise is flaky at best.
I other words, Katter’s promise to repeal the 2018 Act is a wedge to benefit the ALP.
No doubt he will introduce the Legislation, LNP will vote it down, Katter and Labor in the North go to the 2028 Election calling LNP pro Abortion.
You couldn’t get much grubbier politics.
I am so tired of reading uniformed opinion by people who have no real knowledge of this area and after watching what is occurring in the USA have genuine concerns for women’s health practice if the existing provisions are repealed.
Get a grip.
There was no need for the 2018 Legislation, what happened before that never attracted the attention of the Police in Qld.
Now we’ve got Katter in the delivery room, Labor are patting him on the back and urging him on behind the scenes, and it’s the LNPs fault?
Try to see the bigger picture, it’s all political.
The 2018 legislation was long overdue, and I am grateful to Jackie Trad and all involved. It recognised the extant reality, formalised practice guidelines, and protected practitioners and patient privacy. There is precedent elsewhere for decriminalisation to be repealed and more draconian limits put in place, with the threat of police intervention and legal action. Could it happen here? Electoral sentiment more broadly makes it unlikely, one would hope, but a lot of people elsewhere thought likewise and the prospect of a conservative rump making health care decisions for the rest of us and compelling prosecution does not appeal.
It would be fabulous if this issue was never to be litigated again and not a live political football, but the cat has been belled and here we are.
Yes; the conservatives will get their turn to remind Queenslanders of their creepy little infatuation with the private lives of us all soon enough. Unless Crisafulli can keep his nuts in line. “Eww get it off” indeed.
Now where on earth is more polling? I am hearing the most ridiculously diverse perceptions from different angles. Anything from 40 to 50 TPP for the ALP. I do not recall an election in recent times with anywhere near this level of uncertainty.
… and the prospect of a conservative rump making health care decisions for the rest of us and compelling prosecution does not appeal.
There was a National Party Government 1983-’89 in Qld, none of that ever happened.
It would be fabulous if this issue was never to be litigated again and not a live political football, but the cat has been belled and here we are.
It wasn’t litigated before, it’s a beatup, courtesy of the ALP and KAP.
Bottom line:
The Labor Party have been using abortion as a political football in Qld for 40 years, people need to wake up.
Re abortion
There will be a conscience vote for all
Mps. There is no other way possible.
But all mps or candidates need to be open on how they will vote.
Bogan : gosh who are you hearing ,50% TPP for ALP from? I think we might get a poll from the courier tomorrow but maybe it won’t be until election eve? I saw a chat with Kos Samaras and co. on ABC they are basing their opinions on a poll they did maybe 6 weeks ago with LNP 55 – 45 which is probably the best poll Labor has had all year. They think ok in inner brisbane for Labor but bad further out then toxic in the regions and far Q although Cairns is said to be not as bad. They think the needle hasn’t moved from this assessment so still looks bad for Labor. I still can’t see it being nearly as bad as 2012 but we just don’t know. One things pretty certain is that the LNP are red hot favourites to win. I’m an optimist so I’m hoping things recover for ALP enough to get to a seat count in the 30s especially considering my strong memories of the last LNP government that had a ginormous majority. If a poll comes out saying 57- 43 still it will be a long night for ALP supporters and triumphal feelings and bottles of hubris in LNP land – lol
Re abortion
There will be a conscience vote for all
Mps. There is no other way possible.
But all mps or candidates need to be open on how they will vote.
Why?
Most Labor MPs and candidates are losing anyway, so what does it matter?
Joh never took any action to limit abortion, neither did Ahern, Cooper, Borbidge or Newman.
As a matter of fact, you’d have to go back to Goss to find the last time any law was repealed in Qld.
I thinki it related to Witchcraft and Beggging Alms, from memory.
Why? Because I think all politicians should be
Open about their opinions on important matters to all their electors.
Best possible for Labor is 30 to 35 seats but to get to 35… roughly where the lnp were in 2020….they need a higher vote than 45/55 and some very good luck
The analysis of Kos Samiras – Labor’s vote in inner Brisbane is holding up well, but things get dire when you get into the outer suburbs of Brisbane and then when you branch out into regional Qld, it’s ugly for Steven Miles and co.
Look, the status quo on abortion in Qld has always been it’s a sad story and the Non Labor side doesn’t want to get involved.
The Labor Party position has always been
“Let’s get involved!”
by telling lies about what might happen down the track.
Intelligent voters might notice that Labor is the Party that’s spruiking all the Standover talk and put 2+2 together?
“I other words, Katter’s promise to repeal the 2018 Act is a wedge to benefit the ALP.
No doubt he will introduce the Legislation, LNP will vote it down, Katter and Labor in the North go to the 2028 Election calling LNP pro Abortion.
You couldn’t get much grubbier politics.”
@Badthinker
Eh Badthinker no one is acusing Labor calling the LNP pro-choice. They are suggesting Labor is wedging the LNP with a scare campaign that the LNP will repeal decriminalising abortion legislation. Labor Mp’s overwhelming voted for decriminalising abortion including their North Queensland Mp’s.
It’s kind of funny you having crocodile tears that Labor and KAP are teaming up to wedge the LNP. I don’t remember you complaining the Greens and Liberals federally teaming up to block Labor on the environment and housing. In fact the convenient mischief making marriage has happened far more times federally then this one off issue.
In fact the convenient mischief making marriage has happened far more times federally then this one off issue.
It’s not ‘one off’.
Katter rode to Labor’s rescue in 2015 when Labor was forced to dump Billy Gordon over DV allegations, guaranteeing Confidence and Supply.
Why did they do that, unless KAP is a Labor puppet Party?
“It’s not ‘one off’.
Katter rode to Labor’s rescue in 2015 when Labor was forced to dump Billy Gordon over DV allegations, guaranteeing Confidence and Supply.
Why did they do that, unless KAP is a Labor puppet Party?”
@Badthinker
Because the LNP couldn’t form government even with KAP numbers on their own. There chances of being king makers ended after independent Peter Wellington formed with government Labor.
KAP was really brake in case emergency option as Billy Gordan remained in parliament as an independent. Robbie Katter also stated his preference was LNP as their objectives alligned closer to KAP then Labor. And as I previously mentioned Bob Katter sided with the Coalition federally in 2010 and 2016.
KAP was really brake in case emergency option as Billy Gordan remained in parliament as an independent. Robbie Katter also stated his preference was LNP as their objectives alligned closer to KAP then Labor.
So, why did he side with Labor?
Billy Gordon was their problem, not his?
Bottom Line:
Katter was never backing the LNP when it mattered.
Bob Katter? He didn’t have to make a call in 2010, but when he was needed for a vote as the swing vote he didn’t show up.
KAP was really brake in case emergency option as Billy Gordan remained in parliament as an independent.
In other words, if LNP had secured Billy Gordon’s vote, KAP could have put the LNP into power.
Katter’s voters must have short memories?
“In other words, if LNP had secured Billy Gordon’s vote, KAP could have put the LNP into power.”
@Badthinker
That was never going to happen. In fact Billy Gordan endorsed his Labor predecessor when he announcing he wouldn’t be recontesting his seat the following election.
I know it was also reported that LNP figures were involved in courting Gordon’s ex-partner which Gordan accused the LNP involved in gutter politics. So yeah there was no chance in hell that was going to happen.
one of Mr Crisifulli’s candidates has just thrown him a curve ball on abortion. The candidate said they would have to keep quiet on the issue to get elected but implied that stance would change when they won. Head office won’t be happy as they like their candidates to be in lock step, very bad timing for Mr Crisifulli just as he was starting to defuse the issue.
FWIW – abortion.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/18/qld-election-2024-freya-ostapovitch-lnp-stretton-candidate-abortion-ntwnfb
Silly person. No wonder Labor are 10/1 on favourites to win Stretton. 🙂
Given her history on abortion they sure picked the right candidate to record.
“You vote for me, you trust me,” Ostapovitch responds. “I can’t say anything yet because we have got to get elected before we do anything.
“I am on the record, I am pro-life. This babies born alive stuff, it just breaks my heart.”
So, what does the 2018 Legislation actually achieve?
Does it legalise medical intervention to prevent babies being born alive?
What’s the full story?