Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Kamala Harris has a 49.3-46.1 lead over Donald Trump (49.3-46.2 in my previous US election article for The Conversation on Monday). In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Harris has at least a one-point lead in enough states to win the Electoral College by a 276-262 margin.
The New York Times released polls from the highly regarded Siena on Tuesday, which had good and bad news for Harris. Siena’s national poll gave Harris a 49-46 lead, her best position in this poll. But Trump led by a thumping 55-41 in Florida, which used to be a swing state. This caused Silver’s Florida aggregate to move two points in Trump’s favour, and he now leads by 5.5 points there.
On Wednesday, Quinnipiac polls of Wisconsin and Michigan gave Trump 2-3 point leads, though Harris had a three-point lead in Pennsylvania. Silver’s model now gives Harris a 53.5% chance to win the Electoral College, down from 56% on Monday. There’s a 23% chance that Harris wins the popular vote, but loses the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight model is now very close to Silver, with Harris a 53% chance to win.
Two right-wing candidates to contest UK Conservative leadership
As in previous UK Conservative leadership elections, the final two candidates are selected by Conservative MPs, with Conservative party members to choose between these final candidates. At Wednesday’s final round of MPs’ votes, the right-wing Kemi Badenoch won 42 of the 120 votes, the right-wing Robert Jenrick 41 and the more centrist James Cleverly 37.
Cleverly had easily won the previous round of MPs’ votes on Tuesday with 39 votes, followed by Jenrick on 31 and Badenoch on 30. It’s likely that a tactical voting blunder caused him to finish third and be eliminated, with some of his supporters voting for Jenrick as they thought Cleverly had a better chance to beat Jenrick than Badenoch in the members’ vote.
Members will now decide between Badenoch and Jenrick by an online vote, with the final result to be announced November 2. A late September YouGov poll of Conservative members gave Badenoch a 41-38 lead over Jenrick.
Labour and PM Keir Starmer’s dreadful start to the term continues, with a recent More in Common poll giving Labour just a 29-28 lead over the Conservatives with 19% for Reform and 11% for the Liberal Democrats, although three other early October polls gave Labour 5-8 point leads. The latest two polls that have asked about Starmer’s ratings have him at net -30 (Opinium) and net -36 (YouGov).
Far-right wins most seats in Austria
Austria uses proportional representation with a 4% threshold to elect its 183 seats. At the September 29 election, the far-right FPÖ won 57 seats (up 26 since the 2019 election), the conservative ÖVP 51 seats (down 20), the centre-left SPÖ 41 (up one), the liberal NEOS 18 (up three) and the Greens 16 (down ten).
The FPÖ had its best result in an Austrian election and it was the first time since World War Two that a far-right party has won the most seats. However, the FPÖ is well short of the 92 seats needed for a majority. The ÖVP and the Greens had formed a coalition government after the 2019 election. A coalition between the ÖVP and SPÖ is the only way to keep the FPÖ out of government.
Japanese election: October 27
The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has formed government after every Japanese election since 1955 except after the 2009 election. Of the 465 lower house seats, 289 are elected by first-past-the-post, while the remaining 176 are elected using proportional representation in 11 multi-member electorates.
This election is being held a year early after Shigeru Ishiba replaced Fumio Kishida as LDP leader and PM on September 27 and called an early election. Polls indicate the LDP is far ahead of their nearest party rival, the centre-left Constitutional Democrats, but there’s a large “no party” vote. The LDP should easily win yet another election.
FUBAR: “Why would they do that based on a normal weather event?”
1-in-100-years ‘normal’ …
Centre: “Let’s analyse the betting markets.”
Let’s not …
“I have been interested in this subject over the years mainly to see whether seat betting contained any superior insight that might be useful in predicting elections. In 2013 the answer was a resounding no, in 2016 it was a resounding meh, and surely if seat betting could show that it knew something that other sources of information didn’t, 2019 would be the year! …
“2019 saw the first failure in the headline betting markets since 1993, but it was a much bigger failure than that.”
(Kevin Bonham)
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/06/seat-betting-as-bad-as-anything-else-at.html
“The Gateway Pundit, the far-right news website that played a critical role in spreading false information about the 2020 election, has settled a defamation lawsuit with Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, two Georgia election workers it falsely accused of wrongdoing. … Terms of the settlement were not disclosed in the filing.”
Another small step, on the back of previous wins:
“A Washington DC jury ordered Giuliani to pay nearly $150m to the two women last year for libel. …
“The two women have already settled a settled suit with One America News, another far-right outlet. The network issued an on-air apology after the settlement.
“They are also seeking to collect on the money Giuliani owes them. Their lawyers recently asked a New York judge to allow them to take control over Giuliani’s assets.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/10/gateway-pundit-defamation-lawsuit-election-workers
BTSays says:
Thursday, October 10, 2024 at 7:08 pm
Stooge 12.13pm (previous thread)
Why discriminate based on religion? I thought the far left where you reside, hated that. Yet you proclaim you are anti-Christian for some reason.
Oh, I’m not from the far left. I doubt that I’ve declared myself to be anti-Christian though I think the religious are delusional. I think that Christianity is a cult that both requires and ritualises human sacrifice and is basically horrifying. It is grotesque. But all religions are bunkum. They consist of idiotic nonsense….make-believe for and by grown-ups. This is not unique to Christianity. It is common to all religions…to all creation myths…to all the fabricated god-delusions and clerical pretensions.
I’m an apostate who subscribes to a fundamental human equality and holds on to hopes for universal emancipation from want, from oppression, from the reactionary politics of violence, hatred and lies. I am an idealist who is curious about humanity, consciousness, the cosmos and the physics that makes it all possible.
Oliver Sutton says:
Friday, October 11, 2024 at 4:06 am
FUBAR: “Why would they do that based on a normal weather event?”
FUBAR…noun…. trafficker of disinformation; a disingenuous typist; a cheat; a reactionary pretender
Couldn’t have said it better myself, Stooge.
To which I would only add, that one may live the life espoused by Jesus, The 10 Commandments, the Bible, or whatever ‘Holy Book’ out there describes as a pious life without subscribing to their religion. Nor ‘defending’ it via wars of aggression or terrorism.
Oliver Sutton @ #51 Friday, October 11th, 2024 – 4:06 am
Actually, Hurricane Helene was described as ‘1 in a 1000 years’ weather event. In other words, never before.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/10/trump-hurricane-lies-conspiracy-theories
Trump’s lies.
BTSays @ #44 Thursday, October 10th, 2024 – 11:11 pm
‘See you on Jan 6. Will be wild!’
Look, Trump is the master of alluding to something without coming right out and saying it. You’d have to be a MAGA gullible fool, or one of his disinformation minions, to not know already that Trump’s henchmen and his Useful Idiots had made plans to storm the Capitol on Jan 6 if Trump’s other plan, to have the Representatives of the States decide the winner and Alternative Slates of Electors substituted for the real thing when the satchels containing the actual Slates of Electors from the States were stolen and destroyed. You do know that was the plan, don’t you? You do know that, but for 2 young Clerks, who hid those satchels from the rioters and the 3 Percenetrs whose task it was to steal them, then Trump’s plan would have worked? The path of those people was directly to the Clerk’s office. They were not a part of the melee.
And you think you can come the raw prawn with us here, on Trump’s behalf, because there can be no other reason, and try and convince us that Trump never knew what was going to happen, was planned to happen, on Jan 6, 2021!?!
Give. Me. A. Freaking. Break!
The smooth way you couch it, BT, cannot paper over the lies inherent in what you are saying. We are not your rubes here, we know shit from shinola.
Stooge @ #58 Friday, October 11th, 2024 – 6:18 am
And this is what those lies by evil individuals are leading to:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/meteorologists-getting-death-threats-over-hurricane-milton-conspiracies
Swing States Polling by Emerson
ARIZONA
Trump: 49% (+2)
Harris: 47%
—
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump: 49% (+1)
Harris: 48%
—
GEORGIA
Trump: 49% (+1)
Harris: 48%
—
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump: 49% (+1)
Harris: 48%
—
MICHIGAN
Harris: 49% (=)
Trump: 49%
—
WISCONSIN
Trump: 49% (=)
Harris: 49%
—
NEVADA
Harris: 48% (+1)
Trump: 47%
—
#9 (3/2.9/3.0) | 6,850 LV | 10/5-8
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2024-state-polls-mixed-movement-across-swing-states-shows-dead-heat/
Here’s what the Obamas have been doing and are doing for the Harris/Walz campaign:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/here-comes-barack-obama-campaigning-for-his-old-friend-kamala
Today:
Former president Donald Trump is addressing the Detroit Economic Club in the battleground state of Michigan. Ahead of the speech, he proposed a new set of tax incentives and trade protections aimed at bolstering the U.S. auto industry without explaining how they would be paid for. Vice President Kamala Harris has events planned later Thursday in Nevada and Arizona, two states where Latino voters play a significant role. Polls have shown a tight race between Harris and Trump in both states.
The Washington Post
In addition to Obama stumping for Kamala, we have this guy as well…
Former president Bill Clinton will hit the trail for Vice President Kamala Harris in the coming days, lending his voice to the campaign with less than one month until Election Day.
Angel Urena, a spokesperson for the former president, confirmed that Clinton is scheduled to make stops in the battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina, with a focus on smaller, rural areas.
Amongst the deluge of polls out today, a noticeable trend is the ‘red wave’ of partisan or newbie bogus polls which were a feature of the 2022 mid terms.
One genuine non-horse race poll is our old friend Gallup – covering candidate attributes..
https://news.gallup.com/poll/651692/voters-choice-character-leadership-skill.aspx
So went and watched The Apprentice yesterday – on Trump’s formative years.
The bio-pic ends in 1986 with the death of his mentor Roy Cohn, and seeks to explain what forces created the larger than life flawed character we see today. Many insights including his addiction to amphetemines and vanity surgery even back then, but the key ones are the Three Rules Roy Cohn taught him (paraphrased below)
Rule 1. The world is a bad place, and you can only get ahead if you Attack, Attack, Attack.
Rule 2. Everyone has their own Truth, if you say your Truth enough times it is true.
Rule 3. Never admit defeat. If you do lose, claim you have won and appeal the corrupt result.
Lessons well learnt.
https://youtu.be/0tXEN0WNJUg?si=1yMpzLRc0oaBJJnH
I’m going to do an emotional hedge on the outcome, Trump for the win, in effect hedging against my own disappointment if it comes to pass
So, the Adderall rumour about Trump may be true, sprocket_?
Feeling sinks a bit.
AB Stoddard spot on the money:
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/republican-closing-message-2024-we-lie-to-you
”
a rsays:
Thursday, October 10, 2024 at 10:36 pm
“Incredible to think Florida, the most vulnerable state, is home to some of the worst climate science denial.”
It’s not really incredible. It’s perfectly possible for them to believe that some of our seasons are getting warmer at the moment (seems like that’s Summer for USA, and Winter for the UK, particularly), that seas are warming up and therefore hurricane seasons are getting, on average, more savage – but not attribute it to humankind.
What’s attribution have to do with anything though? If your house is underwater because of a 1000-year rain event, it makes no difference if you think the warming that triggered it was natural or manmade. Your house is still underwater, and the insurance companies are still tired of rebuilding it.
”
Climate science says that the warmer the ocean/ sea water gets the more intense in quantity and ferocious of the Hurricane and the rain it accompanies.
The ocean waters around the coast of Florida (and Florida is the only US state that has East, South and West coast i.e. it has a long coast line and vulnerable from all sides.) are around 80 to 101° F in last 1 1/2 years.
https://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/climate-change#:~:text=However%2C%20over%20the%20last%20approximately,decades%20and%20especially%20since%202000.
“Starting with climate, the West (Gulf) side of Florida is considerably hotter and more humid in the summer, because Gulf waters get so much warmer. “
C@t
The screenwriter of the movie is a journalist who fact checked all the Trump content through records from the time, including court depositions.
Trump was taking the doctor prescribed amphetamine pills like lollies, and it had the side effect of him sleeping much less than the average person. It had the ‘positive’ effect of jacking him up so he could perform as the huckster and showman.
Test
On election betting markets: I’ve always regarded gambling as Dog’s Tax on stupidity.
Many parts of Florida are uninsurable.
Eventually parts will be uninhabitable
This is an issue for Floridians, which its leadership has failed to consider in any shape or form.
The only reason the Right is denying climate change now is because they chose short term populism about talking climate changing emissions in the past. They will never admit they were wrong. Pride and political benefit comes before the planet.
Every weather event is related to the climate it comes from. So yes, Milton was not “normal”. You can say that and say that destructive hurricanes happened in the past and be right on both counts. What is undeniable and important is that climate change this rapid is making the planet less livable, a clear and present danger to;
ecosystems around the world,
economies around the world,
social peace and security and stability around the world.
The further toward +2 or +3 the worse all that gets. And that is without breaching tipping points. Breach those and, without any overstatement, hell breaks loose.
But FUBAR feels the need to take pot shots at those pointing out climate change. There are a lot of words to describe that attitude, today I will use “upsetting” and “disappointing”. We need diverse and competing ideas with bipartisan overarching aims to reduce emissions, not more of Abbots s-baggery.
Ah! Talking = tackling.
As for Adderall etc…..
I have regularly taken issue with people suggesting trump has dementia (early or not). But IMO, he is on the juice.
Then again, I reckon the whole of Geelong 2022 and Brisbane 2024 AFL GF teams were on the juice too.
Washington Post has a lengthy article on this election predictors, in this ascending order of probable accuracy (worst to best – but all having some limitations)
1. Social Media surveys
2. Betting Markets
3. Past Predictors
4. Statistically weighted polls
5. Polling averages
6. Weighted polling averages
7. Election forecasts
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/10/trump-harris-polls-election-predictors/
In September, Donald Trump’s campaign and associated committees raised $160 million, with $283 million cash on hand at the end of the month. That would put his campaign committee’s total fundraising at around $467 million, or $802 million if you include his allied committees and super PACs. (We will have exact numbers toward the end of October.)
Note that in the last presidential cycle, the Trump campaign raised $248 million in September 2020. That means that a tired, exhausted, gassed, spent Trump came up $88 million short of what he raised during the same period in his last campaign.
Although the result would probably lead to widespread misfortune, sometimes I wonder if a Trump win would have long term benefits. Right wingers didn’t have the answers in the 1930’s, nor do they have them now. If Trump wins and Project 2025 and it’s equivalents elsewhere are implemented, you would hope that this time religious loons and so called strong men would be ignored for ever.
How a hurricane in this crucial swing state may screw Trump supporters
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/10/2275950/-GOP-s-obsession-with-voter-fraud-could-screw-Trump-in-North-Carolina?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
“Conservative columnist Paul Sperry is sounding a warning for Republicans.
“SCOOP: Trump campaign fears >530k Trump voters in western NC cd be disenfranchised by Helene,” Sperry tweeted on Tuesday. “In fact, 26 of 28 counties hit by flooding voted for Trump in ’20. ‘There’s a 4-to-1 disparity (vs Biden/Harris voters). We’re very concerned,’ a Trump insider said. NC=16 electoral votes.”
Now that his potential votes are on the line in flood-ravaged North Carolina, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s campaign has asked the Democrat-controlled State Board of Elections, the legislature, and the Democratic governor to offer those voters exactly the sort of access he and his minions are suing to deny everywhere else.
“The state Board of Elections this week adopted emergency provisions for 13 western counties that allow voters to request absentee ballots in person up until the day before the election, allow people to return absentee ballots to polling places on Election Day, and allow voters to hand-deliver absentee ballots to the state Board of Elections office or to county election board offices other than their home counties,” reported NC Newsline. “The Trump campaign said in a Tuesday press release that along with these changes, it asked Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and the Republican-controlled legislature to allow people to cast provisional ballots in counties where they are not registered.”
Tar Heel State Democrats could have easily blocked much of this—but they haven’t, because Democrats aren’t assholes.
Simon Rosenberg
@SimonWDC
I don’t know what’s happening in WI, but here are last 5 public non-red wave polls in the Senate race, Baldwin-Hovde:
53-46 (+7) Marquette
50-43 (+7) NYT
52-47 (+5) Research Co
47-42 (+5) Redfield & Wilton
50-46 (+4) Quinnipiac (today)
All via
@FiveThirtyEight
.
7:55 AM · Oct 10, 2024
·
130.9K
Views
Obama has been thinking about what to say….
During an unannounced stop at a campaign field office in Pittsburgh, which came just hours before he was set to appear at his first campaign rally for Harris, Obama said he wanted to “speak some truths” and address Black men specifically.
“My understanding, based on reports I’m getting from campaigns and communities, is that we have not yet seen the same kinds of energy and turnout in all quarters of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running,” Obama said, adding that it “seems to be more pronounced with the brothers.”
Obama questioned how voters, and Black voters specifically, could question whether to support Harris or former president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, “when you have a choice that is this clear, where, on the one hand, you have somebody who grew up like you, knows you, went to college with you, understands the struggles and pain and joy that comes from those experiences.” Obama then ticked off a list of Harris’s policy proposals that he said would help Black communities.
“And you are thinking about sitting out?” Obama asked.
“And you’re coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses, I’ve got a problem with that,” Obama added. “Because part of it makes me think — and I’m speaking to men directly — part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that.”
”
Granny Annysays:
Friday, October 11, 2024 at 10:15 am
Although the result would probably lead to widespread misfortune, sometimes I wonder if a Trump win would have long term benefits. Right wingers didn’t have the answers in the 1930’s, nor do they have them now. If Trump wins and Project 2025 and it’s equivalents elsewhere are implemented, you would hope that this time religious loons and so called strong men would be ignored for ever.
”
Don’t cut the nose to spite the face.
Simon Rosenberg
@SimonWDC
If you wanted clear confirmation the right is running an op to push the polling averages to Trump here we have a start-up right-aligned university in Texas finding the wherewithal to field a poll in PA, which of course has Trump ahead:
Simon Rosenberg
@SimonWDC
As polling community preps for home stretch hope they will note that Ds are, so far, outperforming 2020 in the early vote, suggesting our team has more intensity now. It’s even more pronounced in the Presidential battlegrounds.
Here’s the latest natl data, via TargetEarly:
Sure, but that assumes MAGA can be tweezered out of power after it completely fluffs governing. Plenty of examples where a state can fail, fail and further fail but peeps keep ‘electing’ the buggers that caused it. You dont have to look to Africa or Latin America for this. Some red states in the US are great examples of being useless at administrating but excellent at keeping power.
Your argument reminds me that back in the 2016 term I thought that the Dems should not obstruct bad policy, so long as it wasn’t the type of policy that restricts democracy or impossible to reverse. I would suggest that Trump V2.0 would be far more about the latter.
sprocket_ @ #72 Friday, October 11th, 2024 – 9:06 am
And he still seems to sleep a lot less than other people. 😐
He must have the world’s strongest heart, even if it is a black heart.
Team Katich @ #88 Friday, October 11th, 2024 – 10:31 am
Your thesis here is centred on Trump, and that’s fair, but you are ignoring the Master’s Apprentice JD Vance. That man is learning at the knee of his teacher and he is smart, seriously smart and capable of instituting laws when he becomes President, that would keep the Republicans in power forever, which only another civil war could shake from the tree.
He does seem to have a strong constitution. But modern testing, pharmaceuticals and surgery for heart health for a wealthy person could be helping and make it hard to know what he has had done. A lot of this surgery for example can have very short down time.
Thesis is based on MAGA GOP. They are all dangerous and anyone one of them would do everything they can to ensure/consolidate power first and foremost, then stuff up policy matters second.
Ven @ #NaN Friday, October 11th, 2024 – 9:15 am
Now do Harris.
Symptoms of Trump’s dementia. These are separate from his psychopathy and his personality disorders.
1. Phonemic paraphasia
2. Confusion about reality. This is not about his chronic stupidity or his chronic suggestions of stupid policy. This is about delusional states.
3. Beginning a sentence, forgetting what the start was about, and finishing it with something unrelated.
4. Falling asleep.
5. Memory loss.
6. Forward slump.
7. Deterioration in gross and fine motor skills. Look for gait and balance.
8. Confusion about who people are. This includes conflation of individuals, being delusional about when they lived/live and transposing individuals. This is not about replacing a name with another name. This is about delusion. Hannibal Lecter is a real person who is alive now. Obama is President. Haley was in charge of White House security. This is not about lying. This is about telling what seems to be true to the speaker but which, in fact, a delusion.
9. Chronic over use of generalities to cover a lack of detail.
10. Unwarranted pauses in speech.
11. Progressive simplification of sentence structures.
12. Progressive simplification of conceptual frames.
13. Sundowners syndrome. Any of 1-12 getting worse as the day wears on.
14. Slurring
”
a rsays:
Friday, October 11, 2024 at 10:42 am
Ven @ #NaN Friday, October 11th, 2024 – 9:15 am
In September, Donald Trump’s campaign and associated committees raised $160 million, with $283 million cash on hand at the end of the month. That would put his campaign committee’s total fundraising at around $467 million, or $802 million if you include his allied committees and super PACs. (We will have exact numbers toward the end of October.)
Now do Harris.
”
Harris’ political operation crosses $1 billion raised for the 2024 election
The figure includes money raised into the campaign proper since July 21, as well as an affiliated fundraising vehicle that powers national and state Democratic Party groups.
https://www-nbcnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna174696?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17286047075115&a by
“Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign operation crossed the $1 billion fundraising threshold in September, two months after she took over as the Democratic Party’s standard-bearer, according to two people familiar with the numbers.
The figure includes money raised by the campaign committee itself and by a campaign-affiliated joint fundraising committee that also collects cash for the Democratic National Committee and state parties.
The staggering pace suggests Harris has been able to sustain enthusiasm among donors, large and small, as the campaign enters the stretch run before the Nov. 5 election. But it comes amid a historic onslaught of outside spending from super PACs and other groups that has the Harris campaign concerned — particularly about direct mail, in which Republicans have opened a steep advantage in recent months, and on the ground, with groups like Elon Musk’s super PAC and others working to turn out voters for former President Donald Trump.”
Obama in Pittsburgh
https://www.youtube.com/live/1Ea0xgdzcC0?si=rCeVSk0bKvw1fEIk
$88m less than last time.
From an advertisement perspective it’s kinda meaningless. 2 ads for every advert break compared to 3 ads per break.
For a ground game perspective it is meaningful. 1 less paid person per campaign location and at the scale of the US that translates to about 100 paid staff per state in the bigger states. Paid campaigners matter, volunteers are patchy at best in terms of output and quality.
”
Sprocket@10:23 am: Obama questioned how voters, and Black voters specifically, could question whether to support Harris or former president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, “when you have a choice that is this clear, where, on the one hand, you have somebody who grew up like you, knows you, went to college with you, understands the struggles and pain and joy that comes from those experiences.” Obama then ticked off a list of Harris’s policy proposals that he said would help Black communities.
“And you are thinking about sitting out?” Obama asked.
“And you’re coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses, I’ve got a problem with that,” Obama added. “Because part of it makes me think — and I’m speaking to men directly — part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that.””
”
Why did Obama specifically addressed to Black men
“To the Rev. Malcolm T. Byrd(a black pastor), 69, much of what’s happening with both campaigns feels a bit distant, perhaps a bit too reliant on digital outreach and others in elected office, positions of leadership or trust in the community to convey the stakes of this election, to cut through some lingering degree of apathy and voluminous misinformation.
Byrd noted the results of a NAACP poll made public this month, which showed that 25% of Black men “under age 50 support Trump.
Dunno. Ad slots are a finite resource. If one side has a big enough advantage, they can shut out the other. That would be something more than meaningless.
Ven – I think it’s simple misogyny amongst mostly non-college educated males be they white, black or Latino. Hopefully there are enough more enlightened voters out there to keep Trump out. You could only consider Trump to be the better candidate if you’re either happy to paper over all his myriad flaws while mercilessly zeroing in on every minor weakness of Harris or you’re a multi-millionaire or billionaire.
This is either misinformation or outright lies. Which is it?