Weekend miscellany: Fowler preselection, SECNewgate survey, SA by-election news (open thread)

Labor seeks amends from the voters of Fowler, a poll finds softening enthusiasm for the renewable energy transition, plus the fall and fall of former SA Liberal leader David Speirs.

There may be a Resolve Strategic federal poll through later today, but in case there’s not, a new open thread is order despite there not being much new to relate:

• Labor has chosen Tu Le, whose preselection bid in 2022 was scotched when the national executive imposed Kristina Keneally, as its candidate to recover the western Sydney seat of Fowler from independent Dai Le. Tu Le is a lawyer and daughter of Vietnamese refugees, and the decision to cast her aside to accommodate Keneally’s move from the Senate, where she had failed to secure a competitive position on the party ticket, was evidently received poorly by voters in an electorate that encompasses the Vietnamese community hub of Cabramatta. Dai Le defeated Keneally at the election by 1.6% after preferences, after trailing by 36.1% to 29.5% on the primary vote.

• SECNewgate’s semi-regular Mood of the Nation survey finds positivity towards the transition to renewables at its lowest level since the Albanese government came to power, at 47% positive and 26% negative; Labor favoured by 30% on managing the cost of living, steady from July, with the Coalition up two to 29%; 58% favouring Kamala Harris over 22% for Donald Trump; and a downward trajectory for the perceived performance of the Western Australian state government.

• A South Australian state by-election looms in the highly marginal Liberal-held seat of Black after former party leader resigned from parliament yesterday after being charged on two counts of supplying a controlled substance. Police allege the offence took place “between August 2 and 3 and on August 9”, the latter date being a day after he stepped aside as party leader. On September 9, The Advertiser revealed a video, seemingly filmed in the small hours of June 30, appearing to show Speirs snorting a line of white powder in what appeared to be his home. Speirs claimed the video was a deepfake, but The Advertiser published advice from experts who believed otherwise. The police were seemingly likewise unconvinced, having raided Speirs’ house and arrested him on September 26. The last by-election in the state, on March 23, resulted in Labor gaining former Liberal Premier Steven Marshall of Dunstan, overturning a 0.5% margin with a 1.4% swing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

420 thoughts on “Weekend miscellany: Fowler preselection, SECNewgate survey, SA by-election news (open thread)”

Comments Page 3 of 9
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  1. C@T
    However, Dr Doolittle, don’t think you’ll ever get through to the Irene’s of this world because social media allows them to marinate in their own prejudices elsewhere and then come here to regurgitate them. Rinse and repeat. They are impervious to facts and reason.
    ————————
    If you are going to labor branch meetings and blaming the voters and social media you are not helping your party because MP’s turn up to branch meetings wanting to hear what is being said on the ground.

  2. FUBAR says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 1:54 pm
    Political Nightwatchman says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 1:44 pm

    The Howard-Costello Government paid off all the National debt and created the Future Fund while overseaing an economy with low inflation, significant real wages growth and productivity gains. I’m pretty comfortable with the record of the LNP on managing debt and the economy.

    _________________________________________

    I’m not. It’s idiot economics.

    https://thekouk.com/how-peter-costello-got-rid-of-government-debt/

    No serious business would ever pay off debt by selling its prime income producing assets. All great businesses go into debt to expand and grow.

  3. Oakeshott Country:
    “To be fair – ScoMo was even more of a sycophant – Jerusalem as the Israeli capital, indeed”

    Indeed, how could anyone possibly think that the Israelis would know where their capital was, or should have any say in determining it.

  4. I am sure there are some progressive people that are religious. But Payman does not strike me as one of them. I can think of two that have the same religion as Payman, yet are far more progressive; Husic and Aly. They aren’t advocating for live sheep exports for a start.

  5. Fargo
    Indeed, it’s not in the nature of the State of Israel to pay any attention to international agreements or the rights of it’s neighbours.

    In other news the New Zealand government has moved its capital to a site of deep cultural significance; Bondi

  6. Rossmcgsays:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 2:52 pm
    WA Greens have reprimanded Senator Cox.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/wa-greens-censure-dorinda-cox-over-bullying-allegations-20241006-p5kg5v.html

    Bandt has nothing to add to his “none of my business” statements .

    —–

    Bandt would lose another senator

    Lidia Thorpe in Victoria is the other one

    in one sitting if he gave Cox the flick from the Party. So they went the ‘severely reprimanded’ route to make it look they did something about her mistreatment of at least 3 staffers. Bandt, all talk and no substance again in the real world. The Teals will make sure this features in their advertising material.

  7. Bandt has nothing to add to his “none of my business” statements .
    _____________
    Displaying the courage of his convictions.

  8. dave says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 3:11 pm
    I thought TPOF had voluntarily departed in a huff?

    _________

    And I thought nath was banned. Yet here we are 🙂

  9. To be fair to Rennick he left the Liberals to form his own party after they dropped him from the winnable spots on the Senate ticket in June. Of course SKY NEWS turned on him after previously praising him as a solid Liberal senator. Dosent take much to turn a saint into a sinner in Aussie politics these days but I do think Paymen has let the spotlight get ahead of herself. She will be a paymen in the ….till 2028 when she and Thorpe will be gone.

  10. Griff says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 3:23 pm
    dave says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 3:11 pm
    I thought TPOF had voluntarily departed in a huff?

    _________

    And I thought nath was banned. Yet here we are

    ________________________________

    ROFLMAO

  11. You have to wonder what is going on in Cox’s office if 20 staff have resigned. Not the PR Bandt wanted on his week long tour of WA.

    High speed rail would seem viable at least between Sydney – Canberra – Melbourne, I think the Sydney – Melbourne air route is one of the busiest city pairs by passenger numbers in the world. I guess the problem would be selling this to voters outside NSW and VIC.

  12. OC

    In other news the New Zealand government has moved its capital to a site of deep cultural significance; Bondi

    Oi!!

    It’s County Bondi to you!

  13. FUBAR says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 3:44 pm
    TPOF says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 2:51 pm

    It’s not the role of Government to own and operate businesses.

    ___________

    Like nuclear power? Maybe they should just hold the pursestrings? 🙂

  14. FUBARsays:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 3:44 pm
    TPOF says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 2:51 pm

    It’s not the role of Government to own and operate businesses.
    ——————
    There’s a fine line between where government ends and business starts and today’s government operates like a business.

  15. Free Gear Keir and UK Labour:

    “Labour has suffered a dozen by-election defeats in less than a month as it grapples with the row over donations and freebies.

    Sir Keir Starmer’s party has lost council seats across the country to all parties since mid-September, in a blow to his premiership in his first months in office.

    Labour has had a net loss of 11 councillors since Sept 16, results far worse than the Conservatives who have gained four seats in the same period and Reform gaining two.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/10/05/labour-by-election-defeat-sir-keir-starmer-donations-ticket/

  16. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 4:10 pm

    You think we’d be better off with a Government owned Telstra monopoly in the telecommunications market?

  17. FUBARsays:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 4:20 pm
    Mexicanbeemer says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 4:10 pm

    You think we’d be better off with a Government owned Telstra monopoly in the telecommunications market?
    ———————
    No but today’s government is run like a business and there’s many parts of government that don’t fit the traditional idea of government.

    Privatization can sometimes just be a change of management but the entity keeps the same relationship with government.

  18. It’s called Technocracy.
    Employ a lot of people doing something pointless and spend a lot of money on it.
    Examples:
    NBN
    BER
    Rudds Home Insulation Scheme
    Very Fast Trains
    Tunnels
    Pumped Hydro

  19. If Labor “censured” a Senator who allegedly bullied staff, and had no further comment, the Greens and their supporters would rightly go to town about it and we’d be hearing about the lack of principles and uncaring party machine etc.

    Let’s see if the usual hypocrites surprise me. This is a pretty low hanging fruit to prove you’re not a 100% stooge.

  20. “She wears the Hijab as a sign of Muslim piety. It is a symbol of a deeply conservative religion that seeks control over females and their bodies, is deeply misogynistic, deeply homophobic, and anti LGBTQ+.”

    Fubar, you have no idea why Senator Payman wears the Hijab. I have talked to Muslim women, who have told me it’s not religious, it’s just a part of their culture. You have previously been called out for being racist by William because of your ‘go marry your cousin’ insults to people who express empathy for the Palestinian plight.

    “ How can it be a Progressive party when its female leader conforms to a repressive religious tenet that proscribes what women must wear?”

    C@tmomma, you seem to have this in common with Fubar.

  21. I have talked to Muslim women, who have told me it’s not religious, it’s just a part of their culture.
    ________
    Same thing with a lot of guys wearing Speedos, which is actually far more unsightly and offensive.

  22. Would love to see Melbourne Storm win tonight but they’re up against a mighty opponent who are proven winners. Can’t split them.

  23. mj @ #NaN Sunday, October 6th, 2024 – 10:23 am

    Agree with others that selecting Tu Le is too late now- the mistake was passing her over and selecting Keneally in 2022 thinking it was a safe parachute. Horse has bolted and doubt Dai Le is in serious danger of losing Fowler now. Serious own goal from Labor.

    Continuing with Labor own goals, it’ll be interesting to see how Fatima Payman’s new party will be pitched and how it actually performs. I’m guessing it’ll be a more socially conservative version of the Greens.

    So who are The Greens going to preference? Dai Le or Tu Le?

  24. Eddy says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 4:31 pm

    Culture or religion, it’s basically the same and my statement stands.

    What do they do to women in Iran who take off their Hijabs.

    Feel the culture in Afghanistan as women choose to wear the Burqa.

    You guys are pushing poo uphill with a pointy stick just because you dislike me. I doubt you believe a word you’ve typed trying to claim wearing the Hijab isn’t a sign of a deeply conservative religion and ideology.

  25. dave says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 4:38 pm

    Same thing with a lot of guys wearing Speedos, which is actually far more unsightly and offensive.

    WTF???

  26. Arky @ #NaN Sunday, October 6th, 2024 – 4:28 pm

    If Labor “censured” a Senator who allegedly bullied staff, and had no further comment, the Greens and their supporters would rightly go to town about it and we’d be hearing about the lack of principles and uncaring party machine etc.

    Let’s see if the usual hypocrites surprise me. This is a pretty low hanging fruit to prove you’re not a 100% stooge.

    Has Rex Douglas demanded that Dorinda Cox be managed out yet?

    *crickets*

    And we all know why.
    #hypocrisy

  27. Senator Payman has gone out of her way to promote herself as inclusive despite the exclusive commentariat’s dog whistling.

  28. So who are The Greens going to preference? Dai Le or Tu Le?
    ———-
    Who knows it’s not exactly an obvious choice who they’ll recommend preferencing. Dai Le is an ex Liberal but seems fairly centrist and Labor should be allies with the Greens but they seem to be both content dragging the other down atm.

  29. Are you just afraid that people would find out an inconvenient truth about you, nath, if you wore budgie smugglers? 😐

  30. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 4:58 pm
    Senator Payman has gone out of her way to promote herself as inclusive despite the exclusive commentariat’s dog whistling.

    ________

    Yes, so inclusive she decided to resign from the political party that she represented. Something about a difference of opinion on foreign policy is what done it. Very inclusive 🙂

  31. mj says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 4:58 pm
    So who are The Greens going to preference? Dai Le or Tu Le?
    ———-
    Who knows it’s not exactly an obvious choice who they’ll recommend preferencing. Dai Le is an ex Liberal but seems fairly centrist and Labor should be allies with the Greens but they seem to be both content dragging the other down at the moment.

    _______

    It is an interesting one. Worth a look: https://theyvoteforyou.org.au/people/representatives/fowler/dai_le

  32. @Rex: “Senator Payman has gone out of her way to promote herself as inclusive”

    Ah well, if she promotes herself as something it must be true.

    Even for you that’s a lazy argument.

  33. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 4:59 pm

    Are you just afraid that people would find out an inconvenient truth about you, nath, if you wore budgie smugglers?
    ____________
    It’s more of a public safety concern for me C@t. Do you know how many eyes I have taken out accidentally?

  34. mjsays:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 4:58 pm
    So who are The Greens going to preference? Dai Le or Tu Le?
    ———-
    Who knows it’s not exactly an obvious choice who they’ll recommend preferencing. Dai Le is an ex Liberal but seems fairly centrist and Labor should be allies with the Greens but they seem to be both content dragging the other down atm.

    Everything I’ve heard from Dai Le relates to CoL pressures on her constituents.
    She sounds like a genuine community independent to me.

    Tu Le on the other hand will just tow the Labor HQ line.

    The Greens Party will probably do as they often do … Vote 1 to the Green candidate and preference who you like next.

  35. @Fargo61:

    “Indeed, how could anyone possibly think that the Israelis would know where their capital was, or should have any say in determining it.”

    Israel can situate their capital city wherever they like – so long as it’s somewhere that we all agree is legitimately theirs. Jerusalem is not such a place, being as Israel’s 1967 annexation of East Jerusalem is to this day not recognized as valid or lawful throughout most of the world. Functionally, Jerusalem has been the capital of Israel since the Knesset passed the Jerusalem Law in 1980; however, almost all embassies remain situated in Tel Aviv.

  36. Yes, so inclusive she decided to resign from the political party that she represented. Something about a difference of opinion on foreign policy is what done it. Very inclusive

    Griff, for an independent thinker you sound a lot like a bitter Labor partisan.

    From everything I heard from Senator Payman re Gaza, I believe she genuinely wants a peaceful two state solution. I can’t say the same for Labor.

  37. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 5:08 pm
    mjsays:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 4:58 pm
    So who are The Greens going to preference? Dai Le or Tu Le?
    ———-
    Who knows it’s not exactly an obvious choice who they’ll recommend preferencing. Dai Le is an ex Liberal but seems fairly centrist and Labor should be allies with the Greens but they seem to be both content dragging the other down atm.
    Everything I’ve heard from Dai Le relates to CoL pressures on her constituents.
    She sounds like a genuine community independent to me.

    Tu Le on the other hand will just tow the Labor HQ line.

    The Greens Party will probably do as they often do … Vote 1 to the Green candidate and preference who you like next.

    _____

    I happen to agree you on Dai Le. Quite centrist. The fossil fuel voting might be an issue with The Greens previously. Who knows with the Bandt variant of the Greens.

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