Weekend miscellany: Fowler preselection, SECNewgate survey, SA by-election news (open thread)

Labor seeks amends from the voters of Fowler, a poll finds softening enthusiasm for the renewable energy transition, plus the fall and fall of former SA Liberal leader David Speirs.

There may be a Resolve Strategic federal poll through later today, but in case there’s not, a new open thread is order despite there not being much new to relate:

• Labor has chosen Tu Le, whose preselection bid in 2022 was scotched when the national executive imposed Kristina Keneally, as its candidate to recover the western Sydney seat of Fowler from independent Dai Le. Tu Le is a lawyer and daughter of Vietnamese refugees, and the decision to cast her aside to accommodate Keneally’s move from the Senate, where she had failed to secure a competitive position on the party ticket, was evidently received poorly by voters in an electorate that encompasses the Vietnamese community hub of Cabramatta. Dai Le defeated Keneally at the election by 1.6% after preferences, after trailing by 36.1% to 29.5% on the primary vote.

• SECNewgate’s semi-regular Mood of the Nation survey finds positivity towards the transition to renewables at its lowest level since the Albanese government came to power, at 47% positive and 26% negative; Labor favoured by 30% on managing the cost of living, steady from July, with the Coalition up two to 29%; 58% favouring Kamala Harris over 22% for Donald Trump; and a downward trajectory for the perceived performance of the Western Australian state government.

• A South Australian state by-election looms in the highly marginal Liberal-held seat of Black after former party leader resigned from parliament yesterday after being charged on two counts of supplying a controlled substance. Police allege the offence took place “between August 2 and 3 and on August 9”, the latter date being a day after he stepped aside as party leader. On September 9, The Advertiser revealed a video, seemingly filmed in the small hours of June 30, appearing to show Speirs snorting a line of white powder in what appeared to be his home. Speirs claimed the video was a deepfake, but The Advertiser published advice from experts who believed otherwise. The police were seemingly likewise unconvinced, having raided Speirs’ house and arrested him on September 26. The last by-election in the state, on March 23, resulted in Labor gaining former Liberal Premier Steven Marshall of Dunstan, overturning a 0.5% margin with a 1.4% swing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

420 comments on “Weekend miscellany: Fowler preselection, SECNewgate survey, SA by-election news (open thread)”

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  1. On September 9, The Advertiser revealed a video, seemingly filmed in the small hours of June 30, appearing to show Speirs snorting a line of white powder in what appeared to be his home. Speirs claimed the video was a deepfake, but The Advertiser published advice from experts who believed otherwise.
    This ‘Advertiser’, would that be a Murdoch publication?
    And this Speirs chappie, would he be a Liberal politician?

  2. From the previous thread:

    ‘ Dr Doolittle @ #977 Saturday, October 5th, 2024 – 10:26 pm

    Irene at 9.50 pm

    Been banging on about “better Liberals” on social media in the Bega Valley have you? If not, have a look at what the stupid majority of Greens voters there did in the Mayoral election.

    The one female candidate out of five was Labor’s Helen O’Neil, who was well ahead on primary votes, and a breath of fresh air.

    She lost the Mayoral race by 36 votes to a dolt named Russell Fitzpatrick, the outgoing Mayor, whose main claim to fame was being a publican in Gundagai in days gone by. A former conservative councillor called him as a waste of space.

    How did he win? Only 47% of Greens’ voters preferred the smart woman, O’Neil. Small numbers preferred one of the three Tories. Over a thousand couldn’t think beyond no. 1, i.e. preferred to give up deciding.

    At the federal level Labor is protected from such stupidity by full preferential voting. The Green hierarchy at a federal level will support that system, because they don’t like to be irrelevant. Yet not all Greens supporters can understand that.’

    This ^

    However, Dr Doolittle, don’t think you’ll ever get through to the Irene’s of this world because social media allows them to marinate in their own prejudices elsewhere and then come here to regurgitate them. Rinse and repeat. They are impervious to facts and reason.

  3. Maverick ex Labor Senator Paymen is set to anounce her own political party this week. The party will not carry her name, nor will it be pitched at as a religion-based party seeking to represent Muslim Australians

    The ABC reports her plan will be to target progressive voters more generally, posing as a threat to both the ALP and the Greens. She hopes to run senate candidates in each state and perhaps some lower house seats as well. So the housing crisis, climate change and the cost of living will be her main platforms. She wont disappear at this election unless there is a DD because she has a senate seat to 2028 .

  4. How can it be a Progressive party when its female leader conforms to a repressive religious tenet that proscribes what women must wear?

  5. World News & Politics roundup:
    Former president Donald Trump stated that Israel should target Iran’s nuclear facilities while speaking at a campaign event in Fayetteville, North Carolina, on Friday. Trump’s comments came in response to US President Joe Biden’s earlier statements cautioning Israel against striking Iranian nuclear facilities: https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-823243
    We should have given Ukraine more weapons earlier, says ex-NATO chief: https://www.politico.eu/article/war-ukraine-nato-chief-weapons-russia-jens-stoltenberg/
    Ukraine’s ‘dragon drones’ are now reportedly destroying Russian tanks: https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-dragon-drones-are-now-reportedly-destroying-russian-tanks/
    Xi and Mao replace Jesus and Mary in Chinese churches: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/05/xi-and-mao-replace-jesus-and-mary-in-chinese-churches/
    Hungarians protest state media ‘propaganda factory’ and demand unbiased press: https://apnews.com/article/hungarians-protest-media-propaganda-ef0f419ea38ea8d2beb4f0dd56d82d57
    Netanyahu denounces Macron over calls to stop arms deliveries to Israel: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/05/netanyahu-denounces-macron-calls-stop-arms-delivery/
    North Korea revealed to supply half of all Russian artillery shells used in Ukraine: https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2024/10/05/north-korea-revealed-to-supply-half-of-all-russian-artillery-shells-used-in-ukraine-en-news
    US warships and planes strike Houthi targets in Yemen: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2ld3wxeyqo
    Dubai’s Emirates airline bans pagers, walkie-talkies after device attacks in Lebanon: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/05/travel/emirates-airline-bans-pagers-walkie-talkies-intl
    North Carolina Republican Pleads To End Right-Wing Conspiracy Theories About Helene Disaster Recovery: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hurricane-helene-conspiracy-theories_n_66fffc76e4b02f12ed4a9dd0?j6
    Trump Slammed Over Hurricane Helene ‘Lies’: https://www.newsweek.com/trump-slammed-over-hurricane-helene-lies-1964258
    Marjorie Taylor Greene Sparks Backlash With Comments Made Amid Hurricane Helene Devastation: https://time.com/7049576/marjorie-taylor-greene-backlash-comments-amid-hurricane-helene-devastation/
    Texas bakery threatened for making cookies featuring Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz: https://www.chron.com/food/article/hive-bakery-cookies-death-threats-19816407.php
    “The bad guys won in WWII”: Minnesota candidate is latest GOP member to espouse pro-Nazi view: https://www.salon.com/2024/10/05/the-guys-won-in-wwii-minnesota-candidate-is-latest-member-to-espouse-pro-nazi-view/
    JD Vance claimed Democrats are censoring the internet. He’s lying: https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/jd-vance-claim-democrats-censoring-conservatives-rcna173859
    EU needs faster migrant returns, say 17 countries including Germany, France: https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-migration-faster-returns-germany-france/

  6. Payman made one shrewd move that’s all she needs she hired as chief of staff the preference whisperer who was quoted a couple of months back that running as a Muslim party will not cut it.
    No surprise she is doing what he said.I wonder who approached who?

    Geez WA state labor gov sinking says poll lack of social/housing in general is killing them.

    Albo effect he is camped out here practically will be hurting as well even though Cook is trying to distance from feds.

    Bloody hell 3 hour time difference!

  7. pied piper : “Bloody hell 3 hour time difference!”
    ————————————————————————
    Yep! Happy AEDT day to William and all of the WA bludgers.

    FWIW, I believe that is high time for the south-eastern states to give away daylight saving. It is a profoundly 20th century concept which is becoming increasingly outmoded in our 24/7, increasingly online world.

    And getting rid of it would help reduce WA’s sense of isolation from the rest of the country.

  8. Re William’s opening post: I am somewhat tickled to see Tu Le getting the nod for Fowler, as I recall reading quite a few posts on here back in the day as to why she had no legitimate claim on the seat, was a self-promoter who was of minor significance in the local party, etc, etc.

    But now she’s the endorsed candidate. However, I suspect that this is going to turn out to be a case of shutting the door after the horse has bolted.

  9. Morning all. Badthinker in response to your point here:

    “ This ‘Advertiser’, would that be a Murdoch publication?
    And this Speirs chappie, would he be a Liberal politician?”

    The SA Libs have been taken over by a very aggressive, far-right faction centred around a christian pentecostalist church. They have taken no prisoners in their quest to gain control of the SA branch, and Speirs was from the rival moderate faction. I wouldn’t put leaking the video to The Advertiser past them. They are not dissimilar to the Hillsong church based faction that supported Morrison.

  10. Elmer Fudd @ 7.26am
    Payman was only elected under the auspices of the broad church of the ALP, in WA.
    Alas, she will be a Senator until the 2028 election.
    Fully agree, C@tmomma @ 7.38am, that someone promoting the tenets of Islamic fundamentalism will not have a wide appeal to voters.

  11. FWIW, I believe that is high time for the south-eastern states to give away daylight saving. It is a profoundly 20th century concept which is becoming increasingly outmoded in our 24/7, increasingly online world.

    Hear hear! I hate daylight saving. If we can’t get rid of it then at least shorten the period so that it runs from December through to the end of March.

  12. Ah, Fatima Payman, the latest in a long line of deluded turncoat Senators who think they were elected under their own name! I look forward to seeing the less than 1% of the vote the Payman Party gets at the next election. Here’s a tip Fatima – you are only in the Senate because you were on the Labor ticket (at #3 at that), and if you really had the moral clarity you claim, you would resign from the Senate and return the seat to the party that voters voted for. Same goes for Lydia Thorpe and Gerard Rennick. Unrepresentative swill indeed!

  13. In relation to Tu Le – they should have preselected her for Fowler in 2022, instead of Keneally. I think Dai Le will be too hard to dislodge from there next year – maybe overall that might be the trend in the 2025 election, Teals/independents who were first elected in 2022 will be reelected in 2025, Allegra Spender certainly will win Wentworth again due to a very favourable redistribution for her.
    Fatima Payman – irrelevant now, who cares?
    Albanese will be glad when the one year anniversary of October 7 is past, I think he looks very uncomfortable with the whole Israel/Gaza issue, he’d much prefer talking about supermarket prices or the housing bill.

  14. A rip-snorter BK!

    “FWIW, I believe that is high time for the south-eastern states to give away daylight saving. It is a profoundly 20th century concept which is becoming increasingly outmoded in our 24/7, increasingly online world.”

    +1 our cats still want to be fed at the same chronological time. Daylight savings just throws routines out.

  15. NewsCorp isn’t pro-Liberal, it’s about pushing politics in the countries it infests as far to the Right as it can. The more liberal Liberals have been in its cross-hairs, as Malcolm Turnbull can attest.

  16. The current (tragic) state of Australian government:

    Richard Denniss@RDNS_TAI · 22h
    The nonsense in this article burns hotter than Tanya’s ‘blowtorch’ on Dutton…She just approved 3 new coal projects, wont stop salmon farming from killing the remaining maugean skates or end native forrest logging. But sure lets talk up being ‘nature positive’

  17. Err ummm back in 2013 Paymans chief of staff did the following

    He Formed the minor party alliance advised 3o minor parties/independents on preference harvesting etc etc.
    The 2013 Australian senate election resulted in the election of candidates receiving 0.2 percent ,0.5 percent and 3.5 percent of first preference votes.

    Australian sports party,Motor enthusiasts party and family first party.He advised them all.

    Have electoral voting rules in the senate changed labor since 2013?

    This guy Payman has hired is a zealot been doing this since 1996 he will find a way with stuff all votes for her candidates to get up.

  18. Currently house/dog sitting for my eldest, and “Olive” has woken up at Solar Time this morning but interestingly, the blackbirds that usually stir at the same time slept in.

  19. Shameful behaviour for a major news outlet to be publishing an image of David Speirs insufflating illicit substances on its front page fully visible in retail outlets to children.

    What kind of message is News Limited trying to send promoting illegal drug use to children?

  20. Yes, day light saving rules – being woken by two 4 legged alarm clocks at 5:30am today is much better than the 4:30am yesterday

  21. Sohar
    Not at all
    How dare an Iranian envoy call Israel a “vile Zionist regime”
    Strong action was required- I think he is lucky not to be expelled

  22. This guy Payman has hired is a zealot been doing this since 1996 he will find a way with stuff all votes for her candidates to get up.
    Thamks.
    The impression I’d got from MSM coverage is of a quirky prankster with math abilities.

  23. Elmer Fudd says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 7:26 am
    Maverick ex Labor Senator Paymen is set to anounce her own political party this week. The party will not carry her name, nor will it be pitched at as a religion-based party seeking to represent Muslim Australians

    The ABC reports her plan will be to target progressive voters more generally, posing as a threat to both the ALP and the Greens. She hopes to run senate candidates in each state and perhaps some lower house seats as well. So the housing crisis, climate change and the cost of living will be her main platforms. She wont disappear at this election unless there is a DD because she has a senate seat to 2028 .

    _______

    Where does Payman’s desire for resumption of live sheep exports fit?

    https://echonewspaper.com.au/news/payman-enters-live-sheep-debate/

  24. I thought we turned our clocks forward tonight because of the long weekend, so when I got up I thought, hmm still quite dark for this time of the day. 😀

    But I much prefer having Daylight Saving to not because who likes the light and the heat starting very early in the day in the middle of summer? 🙁

  25. Griff @ #NaN Sunday, October 6th, 2024 – 9:41 am

    Elmer Fudd says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 7:26 am
    Maverick ex Labor Senator Paymen is set to anounce her own political party this week. The party will not carry her name, nor will it be pitched at as a religion-based party seeking to represent Muslim Australians

    The ABC reports her plan will be to target progressive voters more generally, posing as a threat to both the ALP and the Greens. She hopes to run senate candidates in each state and perhaps some lower house seats as well. So the housing crisis, climate change and the cost of living will be her main platforms. She wont disappear at this election unless there is a DD because she has a senate seat to 2028 .

    _______

    Where does Payman’s desire for resumption of live sheep exports fit?

    https://echonewspaper.com.au/news/payman-enters-live-sheep-debate/

    And how does that intersect with her Muslim faith, as it’s Islamic countries that purchase the sheep and want to kill them the Halal way in their own countries.

    No doubt she’ll go along with what Labor had the courage to do and hope no one notices her hypocrisy.

  26. Payman is respecting the cultural norms of the Arab world.
    Is is the duty of every faithful man to slaughter a sacrificial animal on Eid al-Adha.
    How else are you expected to remember Allah’s saving of Ishmael?

  27. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 9:44 am

    It is hearsay but the article explains that Payman indicates her religion does have something to do with it. Certainly not the first or last time religion is guiding political beliefs in Australia 🙂

  28. Frednk

    “ I do not support any efforts to bring the middle east war to Australia. Today insiders has been particularly painful.”

    Thanks for the warning. I might head to the nursery.

  29. Agree with others that selecting Tu Le is too late now- the mistake was passing her over and selecting Keneally in 2022 thinking it was a safe parachute. Horse has bolted and doubt Dai Le is in serious danger of losing Fowler now. Serious own goal from Labor.

    Continuing with Labor own goals, it’ll be interesting to see how Fatima Payman’s new party will be pitched and how it actually performs. I’m guessing it’ll be a more socially conservative version of the Greens.

  30. For the ignorant on this blog wishing to equate Muslims with Arabs:
    “More than a billion people in the world are Muslims, but fewer than 15 percent of Muslims worldwide are Arabs”

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