Some accounts of private polling from Queensland to relate, all of it adding a picture of an election-losing swing headed the way of the Labor government:
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column relates that union-funded polling by DemosAU has the Greens on 37.9% in the Labor-held Brisbane CBD seat of McConnel, up from 28.1% in 2020, with the LNP on 27.4%, down from 31.0%, and Labor on 27.2%, down from 35.3%. The suggests Labor separately has an even chance of surviving to the final count and winning when it gets there with the help of LNP preferences. The polling also suggests a 10% swing statewide and a Labor seat tally of 31 out or 93.
• Last week’s Feeding the Chooks column had Labor sources saying their polling showed Health Minister Shannon Fentiman facing a 13% swing in Waterford, where her margin is 16.0%. The report noted “confusion about who commissioned the dire phone poll by Labor’s preferred pollsters Talbot Mills (business partners with banned lobbyists Evan Moorhead and Fentiman’s ex-husband David Nelson), but the smart money is on the MP’s own union, the AMWU”.
• Madura McCormack of the Courier-Mail reported on Thursday that a Greens-commissioned YouGov poll had Labor on 31% in Brisbane and the Greens on 16%. Assuming this is Brisbane broadly defined, it suggests a fifteen-point drop in Labor support from 2020 and a three-point increase for the Greens. The poll also found the Greens on 13% statewide, compared with 9.5% in 2020, and 54% support for its proposed cap on rental increases, with the report neglecting to say how many were opposed and how many undecided.
• Katter’s Australian Party has announced it will direct preferences to the LNP over Labor in the three Townsville seats of Townsville, Mundingburra and Thuringowa, which it has apparently never done in the city before, citing Labor failure on youth crime.
• The campaign leaders’ debate was conducted on Thursday, highlighted by David Crisafulli’s promise to stand down if crime victim numbers did not fall on his watch. There did not appear to be any effort to evaluate voter impressions of who had won.
I think at this stage the ALP would be happy if they can limit the losses to under twenty. The LNP is putting all of its eggs into the crime and punishment basket and this plus an it’s time factor seems to be working. Miles put in a good performance the other night in the debate and Mr Crisifulli did not do so well. His impromptu admission that he would resign if crime didn’t improve was really dumb and showed he not good when under the pump. You can see how an opposition will go to town on this off the script promise. Also will voters demand some more detail in the run up to election day? I’m wondering if some of the undecided voters may decide the status quo is preferable to another Newman style government. It seems like none of this will be enough for the ALP to hold its majority but it could definitely tighten the result if things keep going Miles way and Mr Crisifulli is put under pressure .
Princeplanet – I do like your guarded optimism. I watched some of that debate earlier in the week, and I thought Steven Miles had it all over David Cresifulli. Maybe Labor can close the gap somewhat in the next 3 weeks or so with a good campaign – Miles strikes me as a bloke who is a fighter.
If QLD Labor can restrict the likely LNP majority to something under 15 seats, that’d be a decent result in the circumstances, obviously the regions are where Labor will lose a fair chunk of seats, Townsville especially. The failure to address the youth crime issue is a disadvantage for them, it didn’t help some months ago when the Labor MP for Capalaba described youth crime in his seat as “a media beatup”, and then had to apologise.
I’m with you 100% DS , the ALP has stitched together majorities over the last three elections even if the polls weren’t so bad for Labor I would be doubtful they could do it again. When it comes to politics I try to see it from all sides, what was interesting in the debate is how Crisifulli was lost when the topic got off script. Miles came across as knowledgeable and firm but also personable and the ALP adverts are having more impact than the emotive crime story LNP ads. I think this heavy reliance on one issue for the LNP leaves them a bit vulnerable I also feel that Miles is making this somewhat more of a contest than the terrible polls for the ALP are predicting . At the end of the day though the its time factor might be the thing that settles the result . Considering many on here and elsewhere were/ are predicting a repeat of 2012 Miles will have done well if he can limit the damage to 20 seats lost.
Are the numbers quoted for Brisbane back the front?
Labor has failed to explain the benefits of renewable energy projects clearly to residents of Rural and Regional Queensland.
The three biggest hydro power projects are Borumba Dam, Pioneer – Burdekin and Kidston. Total investment $37 billion.
Wind farms average investment is $500 million. Some of those running now or in the pipeline include Archer Point, Clarke Creek, Crediton, Crows Nest, Forsythe, Forrest, Windy Hill, Kennedy, Kidston, Macintyre, Lakeland and many more. Farmers are paid rent of $48,000 per turbine per year.
There are over 100 solar farms and about 50 hydrogen, ammonia and sustainable fuel projects in various stages.
The latest budget has provision of $16 billion for RE projects.
All these projects are in rural Queensland (20% of the population) and will attract companies looking to set up business near this cheap power. Next come the workers and their families then the services for towns and cities. The statement Brisbane gets everything is definitely not true when it comes to RE.
Compare this with L/NP proposed action if elected later this month. Borumba Dam is to be fully reviewed but it is probably too far advanced to be stopped. Crucifooli has opposed this project from day dot. He has said in no uncertain terms that he will cancel Pioneer hydro, definitely canned despite how much preliminary work and land acquisitions have been done. A day one project. No wind turbines will be approved in Queensland by L/NP. No answer when questioned about solar rebate for residents wanting rooftop solar. Where will the State with the best sun and wind for RE be in 4, 8 or 12 years with that attitude.
PHON is recommending her voters from the bush support L/NP over Labor. Her position that nuclear is ‘long overdue’ ties in with Duttons preferred energy strategy. Crucifooli says he will stand up to Dutton over nuclear but Dutton has assured us that Qld ‘ will toe the line ‘.
It’s hard to see anyone who will benefit from the brakes going onto the Renewable Energy sector besides coal and gas miners. It is often stated that the mining sector is a big donor to the L/NP but that would be a pittance compared to these massive investment amounts. These billions are only a fraction of the total costs so the investments are enormous.
We have seen the results Federally when L/NP oppose, defer and delay projects again and again. The only thing that got a tick was MTs Snowy 2.0 but unfortunately the mouth ran off before the research was done.
With these RE projects will come cheaper power, business, jobs and services. Many will vote against their best interests by endorsing the L/NP. The mining project west of Mt Isa that must have RE to proceed has base export value of $500 billion. Australia needs that as the world moves from carbon producing energy and those mines continue to close.
Blackburnpseph
If your question relates to Mr Bowe’s “…Labor on 31% in Brisbane and the Greens on 16%. Assuming this is Brisbane broadly defined…” that looks right to me, and would give a 2PP of about ALP 45-55, which is similar to the figures quoted in the previous thread.
Assuming this is Brisbane broadly defined…”
================================
Just regarding that 16% for the Greens in Brisbane.
Does this figure relate to Greater Brisbane, or is it inner city numbers only.
Me thinks if it relates to Gtr Brisbane, then it’s possible the Greens vote is way way higher in the inner city, similar to the figures quoted by William in his intro for McConnel.
Does anyone know why the Greens have found a foothold in Brisbane, They seem to be fairly strong in the inner area’s of Brisbane for some reason.
Open Q to anyone.
The 19 inner suburbs that comprise McConnell, most of South Brisbane and the southern end of Cooper have enough hospital and education employees to make The Greens competitive.
Up until a few years ago there were enough rooming houses, private hotels, flatettes an Aboriginal Hostel and boarding houses full of single men to keep Labor competitive.
As these became uneconomic and closed down, those Labor voters moved further out, a nd Labor became yesterday’s Party i that part of the world.
Another measure is the disappearance of Pubs.
There are now no pubs in Spring Hill, The International was torn down, there’s a 5 storey IVF Centre where it stood.
The Sportsman shut it’s doors a while ago, Federal and Alliance been closed for years, in South Brisbane the Gloucester is gone, the Gabba Hotel now a bar.
Interesting [to me] is that Electorates are bigger than they’ve ever been, yet McConnell [Brisbane Central] stretches to Breakfast Creek, the Electorate of Merthyr encompassed New Farm, Teneriffe, Newstead and parts of Bowen Hills is gone.
So, although Brisbane CBD is full of residential skyscrapers, either no one lives in them or they’re not eligible to vote.
It started when Labor ‘retired’ Helen Abrahams from the Gabba Ward before the 2016 BCC Election and ran with an unknown.
Imo, that allowed Jonathan Sri to win the Ward for The Greens.
Labor Rusties will tel you that Abrahams retired to spend more time with the Grandies, but reporting at the time indicated she was pushed.
She knew the Ward, was well known for being helpful and would have won easily.
That was the foothold, then LNP preferenced The Greens against Jackie Trad in South Brisbane in 2020.
LNP give self serving reasons for doing that, but it caused a collapse in the LNP vote there and generally, imo, in 2020, the only beneficiary was Anastacia Palaszczuk, who woulda been quickly rolled by Trad otherwise, imo.
Was the axeing of Palaszczuk last year a get square?
It cetrtaily hasn’t helped Labor.
So, after 35 years there were too many people wanting a slice of the spoils and not enough to go around.
My opinion, the MSM will never stop squawking about Campbell Newman, but the new Government will be there a long time.
Thanks Badthinker for the run down of inner Brisbane.
I’m from Vic, and I find it a puzzle that the Brisbane City Council is dominated by the LNP, yet the Greens seem to have a foot hold in the inner city and have already taken 3 Federal electorates there. Looking at it from Vic, it looks like the Greens are “clearing out Labor” from the inner city of Brisbane (despite the fact the LNP has a strangle hold at council level).
Sorry to waffle, so in your opinion McConnel, Cooper, Sth Brisbane will become Green seats in a couple of weeks.
Also, why will the new gov’t be in for a long time. Is it because of the optional preferential voting system they will bring in?
Estimate 60/40 alp 20 seats retained
55/45 alp 30 seats
If in more marginal territory then this would be high 30s or low 40s. It is Possible the alp could win back a couple of percent during the remainder of the campaign
Greens only hold South Brisbane and Paddington on Council. Both are Inner City.
Problem with Greens chances on October 26 is the Greens are having a scandal in W.A., they didn’t do great with Labor preferences in NT and LNP ran dead in Soutrh Brisbane last time.
They won’t do that again,so Greens can only win SB again with Labor preferences.
The LNP Coucil has been a very good one, imo, that’s why they’ve been reelected 4 times, State Goverment doesn’t have a great impact on people’s lives and there’s a power of incumbency.
Just my opinion, Labor would rather see a Green in McConnell and Cooper than the LNP, so if the polling is dire, it wouldn’t put it past Labor to run dead in both seats to deny the Liberals.
I think you can put it down to Sriranganathan and Chandler-Mather being good campaigners free from sticking to a party line. In short, they tried something that the majors weren’t really doing and embraced the idea that any publicity is good publicity and it paid off for now. Labor is reportedly following some of their campaign strategies this time around: Eg. more door knocking and more one-on-one conversations than in the recent past.
Also, why will the new gov’t be in for a long time. Is it because of the optional preferential voting system they will bring in?
LNP got thrown out under OPV in 2015, so it won’t help you if the swing is on.
But yeah, if they stay same and sensible they’ll be there forever, OPV or not.
History of Qld since 1915
1915-1957 Labor, one 3 year break
1057-1989 Coalition
1989-2014 Labor, less breaks of 2 and 3 years
In all that time, the only big swings that changed Government were 1929, 2012, 2015.
The 1929 and 2012 Governments only lasted 3 years, but that’s not the norm in Qld.
“Just my opinion, Labor would rather see a Green in McConnell and Cooper than the LNP, so if the polling is dire, it wouldn’t put it past Labor to run dead in both seats to deny the Liberals.”
@Badthinker
It is your opinion but its also alot of crap to think Labor would run dead in two seats where they have two incumbents. I’ve also seen in another post you suggest the Greens will be the official opposition after the election. You wouldn’t have a clue what goes on in Labor.
We’ve just changed to daylight savings in Victoria and the other southern states.
Is DLS being discussed in QLD by the parties or is it completely off the agenda.
Is it a vote winner – say if Labor announced they would legislate DLS next year, would this swing votes to them, or is it considered a toxic issue in QLD.
On the assumption that the lnp wins. Why would they be in for a long time. ? The boundaries are fair and Queensland is much more decentralised than nsw. After 2 terms the normal pattern is a government has problems from their 3rd term on. They still have the problem how do you spend more without more taxes or cut backs in other areas? There can also be problems with a relatively large majority…
Daylight Savings: Toxic as fuck. One of the last, kind of lighthearted questions of the debate was if they were considering it. Both leaders instantly and emphatically noped it.
“Daylight Savings: Toxic as fuck. One of the last, kind of lighthearted questions of the debate was if they were considering it. Both leaders instantly and emphatically noped it. ”
@joeldipopssays
Daylight savings is toxic in North Queensland. That’s why both parties won’t touch it when there are seats to be won and lost up there. It’s hotter up there and harder to get the kids to sleep at night being one of the reasons. The public is more receptive in South East Queensland. I think Gold Coast is really receptive being so close to the NSW border. However, the public are not so keen on duel times zones though.
DST been trialled under Bjelke in 1970, Goss in 1991, blowback was savage for Goss, egg producers lobbied Bjelke’s wife, it seems you can’t tell chooks when they’re gonna lay an egg with the stroke of a pen.
Great for chalkies who work 9 til 3, start at 5 a.m. with a hour commute, you’re up in the middle of the night to go to work.
Crisafulli will float it anyway once he’s won, NewsCorp will be all in for it, so 50/50 there’ll be another ‘Trial’ in a year or 2.
Goldie being so close to the NSW border?
Nothing has been happening at Tweed Heads since Goss made Poker Machines legal in 1989.
Plenty commute from south of the border, but their problem, if they’ve got one, lies with their own Government in Sydney.
One issue that will blow up after the election is DNA testing in Criminal Trials.
Qld had much narrower parameters for DNA matches than the other States, The Australian ran a campaign, Palaszczuk brought Qld into line with the other States.
Other day, Supreme Court judge said the new wider parameters are the reason there’s a 100 Murder/Manslaughter cases that can’t progress out of the Magistrates Courts, because each case needs 50 DNA reports and there isn’t enough people qualified to write that many reports.
So, Crisafulli will have to bite the bullet soon on that one, NewsCorp won’t be happy, honeymoon over early.
100 Murder/manslaughter cases just in the Magistrates Courts alone, no Crime problem?
Makes me think many cases aren’t being reported in the Media then.
Don’t scare the horses?
P.N:
It is your opinion but its also alot of crap to think Labor would run dead in two seats where they have two incumbents. I’ve also seen in another post you suggest the Greens will be the official opposition after the election. You wouldn’t have a clue what goes on in Labor.
Winning Party has won Cooper every election since 1989.
If Labor aren’t winning [which they aren’t] and the choice is between running 2nd and seeing LNP win on Green preferences or running 3rd and electing The Green, which way d’you think they’ll go?
Remember, No Enemies On The Left.
@Bad Thinker, you were mentioning how McConnell (and maybe a couple of others) are bigger than ever in the face of new residential skyscrapers being put up. Yes there’s a variety of factors like for example a lot would be not eligible to vote (or enrolled to vote).
I also want to mention another factor that I think you missed. Queensland has had huge population growth throughout the entire state. Which has meant that many of the other divisions have generally kept pace with this growth seen in and around the CBD. This is true for the fringes of Greater Brisbane where new greenfield housing developments have gone up. These areas have surged in enrolled voters. As far as state divisions go, Caloundra, Coomera, Logan, Jordan are standouts. Where this isn’t true is the middle-ring, established suburbs of Brisbane, encircling Brisbane’s high density suburbs. In which, there is generally a lot of landlocked housing and nothing has gone up over a decade. When you have an inner-city division packed with skyscrapers bordered by low-density detached housing, it doesn’t bump the elector count much when you extend the boundaries a few more streets.
Other places which haven’t been keeping pace with the population surge are the far-reaches of the state where you either have specific industries closing up or you have consistent flow of young people and young families migrating into the big-smoke for better opportunities (or both).
That’s right, plus from memory, Merthyr extended to Toorak Rd Hamilton, while McConnell stops at Breakfast Ck.
Still, if you demolish 2 x3 bedroom houses and build a 14 storey Apartment building, as has happened many times in Newstead and is happening to a lesser extent in New Farm and Spring Hill, you’d think there’d be a lot more electors, but it seems not.
Winning Party has won Cooper every election since 1989.
If Labor aren’t winning [which they aren’t] and the choice is between running 2nd and seeing LNP win on Green preferences or running 3rd and electing The Green, which way d’you think they’ll go?
Remember, No Enemies On The Left.
@Badthinker
No enemies on the Left? Haven’t you seen the Labor/Greens wars on here? Labor and Greens politicians have been sniping in public as well. Badthinker Labor won’t be giving up on seats they have members in by running dead for the Greens. Unlike the Teals they have never run dead for the Greens particularly if they have Labor incumbents in those seats. I can list numerous examples of Labor running dead for the Teals. The Greens are a different kettle of fish. Liberals might run dead for the Greens though. The success of the Greens gaining Griffith last federal election played a part because the LNP ran dead in Griffith during the campaign.
Ran dead in Griffith?
They drew 30% PV, down from 40% in 2019, a typical drop for Liberals at the 2022 Election.
If that’s how well they do runing dead, they might have won if they’d had a go.
Here’s what running dead looks like for the Liberal Party in South Brisbane:
https://results.elections.qld.gov.au/state2020/southbrisbane/primary
@Badthinker
Unlike you I know someone that was involved in the Griffith campaign. The LNP primary vote dropped 10.2% with most of it going to the Greens. That is a larger drop in comparison to some of the other results around the state. It wasn’t a ‘typical drop’, particularly in an election where the LNP held down the fort in Queensland. They ran dead and it worked.
PN:
That is a larger drop in comparison to some of the other results around the state. It wasn’t a ‘typical drop’, particularly in an election where the LNP held down the fort in Queensland.
10% drop in PV was the average for the Liberal Party across Australia in 2022.
National Party held Seats in Qld fared much better, so you’re comparison isn’t valid, since Griffith isn’t a Nat Seat.
They ran dead and it worked.
Mythmaking.
Labor had a poor Sitting Member who ran 3rd and elected the Green on preferences.
Just on face value, if anyone ran dead in Griffith to elect a Green, it was the ALP.
“10% drop in PV was the average for the Liberal Party across Australia in 2022.”
@Badthinker
There’s the problem with your argument right there. Primary vote in Queensland only went back 4.06% for the LNP. Like I said the LNP ran dead in the seat and the strategy played perfectly into the Greens hands. That moderate Liberal teal vote went to the Greens causing Terri Butler to be defeated.
There’s the problem with your argument right there. Primary vote in Queensland only went back 4.06% for the LNP.
You’re including National Party seats elsewhere in Qld that had only negligible swings in your calculation.
Let’s just stick to Liberal Seats and not muddy the waters with National Party Seats.
Ausatralia wide, lost 10% of PV.
Griffith, lost 10% of the PV.
So, unless your claim is the Liberals ran dead ev erywhere, it doesn’t stand up.
Or, you’re being deliberately obtuse, which is looking likely too.
“You’re including National Party seats elsewhere in Qld that had only negligible swings in your calculation.
Let’s just stick to Liberal Seats and not muddy the waters with National Party Seats.”
@Badthinker
No I’m not. Ross Vasta neighbouring seat of Bonner only suffered a 4.7% swing against the primary vote. Like I said the Liberals ran dead in Griffith. You can throw insults at me but I’m telling you the facts. The Liberals ran dead and the plan to assist the Greens worked to perfection.
Yeah it’s funny you suggest I’m obtuse. When your making comments that the Greens will be the opposition after the election which no credible political expert would endorse.
Bonner isn’t Griffith and Vasta has been there over 20 years, which obviously took the edge off the swing.
But the reality is, even if LNP had got 40%, Labor would still have run third and elected The Green.
I dismissed supicions that Labor went into the tank in Griffith, but your mythmaking and denial of reality are causing me to suspect that they did.
Unless I’m getting senile, which is possible, the Liberal PV in 2022 (excluding LNP) was a reduction of a little over 4% and the combined L/LNP/NP PV reduction around 6%. The only state where the Liberal PV fell around 10% was WA.
Of the Qld seats that had a LNP/ALP 2cp in both 2019 and 2022 (so, not the three seats the Green won, Maranoa, Groom or Kennedy), the 2pp swings to Labor range from 9.9% (Lilley) to -3.4% (Herbert), mostly in the 3-5% range. (The statewide swing was 4.4%.)
Of the seats the Greens won:
Brisbane 9.32
Ryan 8.45
Griffith 8.21
All big, but pretty similar. If the Libs were running dead in Griffith, that would seem to suggest they ran even deader in Brisbane and Ryan – two seats they held. An interesting strategy for retaining government.
The five biggest 2pp swings were in contiguous seats: Lilley, the three Green ones, and Moreton, so clearly there’s an inner Brisbane effect that didn’t extend to seats like Bonner. The next biggest were Capricornia (correcting for a particularly big swing in 2019) and Groom (strong independent campaign).
“Bonner isn’t Griffith and Vasta has been there over 20 years, which obviously took the edge off the swing.
But the reality is, even if LNP had got 40%, Labor would still have run third and elected The Green.
I dismissed supicions that Labor went into the tank in Griffith, but your mythmaking and denial of reality are causing me to suspect that they did.”
@Badthinker
You moved the goal posts to suit your argument. You were suggesting 10% swing against Liberal party primary was about average for Liberal party around Australia. I then quoted a neighbouring seat to Griffith on half the swing and then you have the nerve to suggest I’m denying realty.
As davidwh shown the 10% swing on the Liberal party primary was not Australia average wide. The only person myth making is you.
@Mr Ed, almost nobody in regional Queensland is talking about renewable energy or opposition to renewables. The conversation is entirely around the lack of state government services. It’s the decay in hospitals, schools, policing.
For instance, the number of doctors employed by QH in Central Queensland has fallen by something like 20% over the last few years, and the local health service has cut a lot of services, and the services were pretty rudimentary to begin with. They have also considerably cut opening hours of the local police station, despite the local crime rate going up by about 40%. And the local high school is extremely short staffed, with the teachers union frequently threatening strikes. To have this happen while taking billions and billions in mining royalties out of the local economy means I think the ALP is facing a generation or two without representatives from this part of the state. It’s similar picture from Gladstone to Townsville. Many of these are historically very safe ALP seats, and it’s difficult to see a pathway to government for the ALP without holding some of these regional centres. If the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and the big regional centres are lost for the long term to the LNP, which I think is likely, the ALP is going to be reduced to squabbling with the Greens over seats in metro Brisbane, which is essentially what they have bee reduced to this election, there’s no pathway to government for them.
Personally, I don’t think the ALP is going to be competitive for many terms.
@Wombat
Personally, I don’t think the ALP is going to be competitive for many terms.
That would be contingent on the LNP making a meaningful improvement in those areas.
People who have voted ALP their entire lives might be holding their noses and voting LNP this time in desperation, but if it doesn’t pay off, I don’t see any reason why they would try it again.
Joel, I agree. There’s already evidence the LNP may be taking these regional seats for granted. For example, the health policy announcement yesterday essentially amounted to a cut for places like Rockhampton, Mackay and Townsville vs the ALP. I don’t think there’s any great enthusiasm for the satellite hospitals in these towns, people just want the existing hospitals properly resourced. But the LNP didn’t talk about that at all, and then said they’ll cut the satellite hospitals. Pretty disappointing, really. I think many folks out here were expecting something around boosting local services.
The ballot paper draws have been conducted. The ECQ offers the following:
93 Australian Labor Party (State of Queensland)
93 Liberal National Party of Queensland
93 Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Queensland Division
93 Queensland Greens
59 Family First Queensland
38 Independent (non-endorsed) candidates.
29 Legalise Cannabis Queensland (Party)
12 Animal Justice Party (Queensland)
11 Katter’s Australian Party
4 Libertarian Party of Queensland
https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/media/2024-media-statements
The ALP found some names to put on all the unfilled vacancies.
Candidates in ballot paper order now on my election guide:
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/
The Wombatsays:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 10:14 am
@Mr Ed, almost nobody in regional Queensland is talking about renewable energy or opposition to renewables. The conversation is entirely around the lack of state government services. It’s the decay in hospitals, schools, policing.
….
Personally, I don’t think the ALP is going to be competitive for many terms.
============================================================
Fully agree with you there Wombat.
The additional introduction of OPV next term will cause problems for Labor in QLD at the 2028 election. Mr Chrisafulli has clearly seen how preferences played out in the NT and I suspect the QLD LNP will pit Labor against the Greens during the next parliamentary cycle and ramp up the conflict to benefit his party.
Nth & West QLD hold about 18 out of 93 seats in the QLD parliament, but they can rely on both the Sunny Coast (6 state seats) & the Goldie (12 state seats) to deliver conservative LNP members, who then provide back up to outback QLD.
I agree with you wombat – we are looking at a long term LNP gov’t come Oct.26.
OPV was in place in 2015 – and Labor was able to get back in. But thats due in part because of the anger against the LNP Newman Govt. Most of the current LNP are all ex-Newman Govt Minsters – with Crisafulli himself being a former Asst Treasurer (from Mundingburra!).
So unless the LNP have learnt from the Newman days – I suspect 2028 may deliver another ALP Victory.
If the ALP can limit the loss to so say 15-20 seats – thus a final count being Mid 30s… theyll be in striking distance for 2028.
Apart from an ALP victory (unlikely as the polls suggest), my pref is for the ALP to just hold on to enough seats to deny the LNP a majority in their own right… thus relying on KAP and/or one or two IND. I hope that no PHON is elected.
The issue though Amjid is that the Greens were polling single digits a decade ago.
They aren’t today.
Welcome to the site by the way. Haven’t seen you post before.
1915 was a realignment because of a well planned change of govt by Labor.
1929 was the depression and McCormick courted trouble.
1932 was the other side of the depression.
1957 was the qld part of the dlp split another realignment.
1974 alp had a horrible election 11 mps
1989 Labor returned to power stayed till 2012 with a couple of blips
2012 lnp won well but cut back everything like s chainsaw.
2015 reaction to 2012
It appears likely there will be a change of government again in 2024 but this is not a realignment like 1915 1957 or 1989. To say Labor will not win again for many terms is not realistic.
Queensland is not a natural fit for Labor, particularly the left faction, which is so dominant in the state and federally, currently. I think we should expect the LNP to dominate Queensland at a state level for some time, similar to the dominance at a federal level. Regional Queensland is permanently gone, it’s difficult to see the political environment of the Gold and Sunshine Coasts changing. The future of the ALP and power in Queensland will be decided in the outer suburbs and surrounds of Brisbane.
I agree Amjid : change seems inevitable at this election, but can Miles limit the damage? The consensus seems to be that he is surprising many by offering up a real fight. The crime issue is obviously huge in regional Qld and the medias emphasis on it has not assisted the ALP but it’s hard to see how the LNP will solve it and it could be become a defining negative issue for them. OPV obviously impacts on the Labor in Brisbane but if the LNP takes up where it left off in 2012 ( and they are pretty much the same faces as back then) then OPV will prove no impediment for Labor. The problem I have with OPV is it’s at odds with the federal system and it provides one sided results which benefit neither winner of loser. Also the LNP might think this is a clever move but what happen if a teal style movement springs up in SEQ? There is already a teal style person in Noosa.
Here we go again…
Katter’s Australian Party pledges to introduce private member’s bill to repeal Queensland abortion laws
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-08/queensland-election-abortion-lnp-alp-katter/104445154