All three of the main forecast models are now very much singing from the same song sheet, with The Economist and FiveThirtyEight both putting Kamala Harris’s win probability at 56% and Nate Silver’s differing only insofar as it goes to one decimal place. A very similar story is told by a regularly updated YouGov MRP poll presently drawing on 100,000 respondents, which rates Harris favourite in enough states to get within 13 electoral college votes of a majority and another two (Pennsylvania and Georgia) as toss-ups each with enough votes to get her over the line. Adrian Beaumont’s latest overview is available at The Conversation.
Maybe not shy voters, but shy of answering pollsters.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4904402-trump-polls-accuracy-questioned/amp/
And Trump does seem to grab the late decider vote. You could call them shy trump voters. Or reluctant Trump voters.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/trumps-repeat-performance-late-deciding-voters
The Jack Smith Jan6 court filing has ‘October Surprise’ vibes about it. The last thing the Trump campaign wants to be distracted about is the 2020 election wash up.
And Smith has yet to file the ‘Appendix’, which has 1,000s of pages of witness transcript interviews, text messages and so on. Remarkably, this is what the dumbass Supreme Court insisted be provided to the lower courts – so they could determine what was ‘official’ and ‘private’ conduct. Things like this..
Identified as Person 9 in the brief, Mr. Herschmann started working in the White House as an assistant to the president in August 2020. During the chaotic weeks after Mr. Trump had been defeated, Mr. Herschmann offered what Mr. Smith described as “the unvarnished truth” about the “claims of fraud” that Mr. Trump and his allies were advancing.
Among Mr. Herschmann’s duties, according to the brief, was updating the president “on a near-daily basis” about the campaign’s efforts to support these fraud allegations.
As the brief says, Mr. Herschmann — whose name appears unredacted but slightly misspelled at one point in the document — was aware that two outside consulting firms had looked at and debunked most of the claims. At one point, he warned Mr. Trump that if he brought them into court “they would get slaughtered” because they were “all bullshit.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/03/us/politics/trump-jan-6-jack-smith-brief.html
And this, where Person 1 is Steve Bannon – currently in jail…
Another player whose actions were documented in new detail was Stephen K. Bannon. Mr. Bannon is a longtime Trump adviser who had worked on Mr. Trump’s first campaign in 2016 and, according to Mr. Smith, began to help with his re-election effort in October 2020.
Three days before Election Day, the brief contends, Mr. Bannon — who is identified as Person 1 — told a private gathering of supporters that despite the outcome of the race, Mr. Trump would simply declare victory.
“That doesn’t mean he’s the winner,” Mr. Bannon said. “He’s just going to say he’s the winner.”
…..
Mr. Bannon appears to have played a larger role than was previously known in yet another of the former president’s schemes: the effort to pressure Vice President Mike Pence into blocking or delaying certification of Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s Electoral College victory at the Capitol on Jan. 6.
The brief asserts that Mr. Trump had a conversation with Mr. Bannon a little less than 15 minutes before he called Mr. Pence on Jan. 1.
During that call, Mr. Trump is said in the brief to have told Mr. Pence that if he did not go through with the plans, hundreds of thousands of people were “gonna hate your guts” and were “gonna think you’re stupid.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/03/us/politics/trump-jan-6-jack-smith-brief.html
And good old Mike Pence kept comprehensive notes of every interaction with Trump, which he has handed over to Jack Smith’s team…
As the post-election period dragged on, Mr. Pence attended meetings with Mr. Trump at which campaign lawyers gave pessimistic assessments of their legal challenges. Mr. Pence also had conversations with the Republican governors of Arizona and Georgia who said there was no evidence of voting fraud in their states, which the vice president relayed to Mr. Trump.
And in at least three private lunches — on Nov. 12, Nov. 16, and Dec. 21, 2020 — Mr. Pence gently tried to encourage Mr. Trump to accept the results, the brief contends. At one point, it says, Mr. Pence suggested that Mr. Trump should “take a bow” and look at the results not “as a loss — just an intermission” and then run again in the 2024 cycle. But Mr. Trump was not interested.
The former president disregarded “Pence in the same way that he disregarded dozens of court decisions that unanimously rejected his and his allies’ legal claims, and that he disregarded officials in the targeted states — including those in his own party — who stated publicly that he had lost and that his specific fraud allegations were false,” Mr. Smith wrote.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/03/us/politics/trump-jan-6-jack-smith-brief.html
Trump will boast about his crowd rally size today. But does the camera lie?
https://www.threads.net/@meidastouch/post/DArKmOCPGlu/?xmt=AQGzuuc4LMxRsZEuaCFEOv0-BZw_Xs5QYpz54Ei3VObEKw
Liz Cheney is giving speech in Cheney – Harris rally in Ripon, Wisconsin.
Institution in US held on Jan 6 because of few good men and women.
BTSays @ #94 Friday, October 4th, 2024 – 1:47 am
An obvious psychopath, like you, reflects on another’s sanity!!?? Insane!
Harris speaking at the rally. A great speech.
https://www.youtube.com/live/aNro7Qp-6mc?si=PD9NK8btie5iFTAS
New American Arab vote
Trump: 42%
Harris: 41%
C@tmomma, ar, TK were saying that Arab Americans will not support Trump. What do have to say to this poll?
https://www.aaiusa.org/library/press-release-new-poll-arab-american-voters-evenly-divided-in-race-for-white-house-f989m
From the Main Thread(too good to leave there):
Ven @ #111 Friday, October 4th, 2024 – 9:14 am
It’s not a national vote and hopefully the idiots who are supporting Trump will be in the minority in areas that matter in the election. You can’t cure stupid when stupid believes it’s right.
”
C@tmommasays:
Friday, October 4, 2024 at 9:17 am
Ven @ #111 Friday, October 4th, 2024 – 9:14 am
New American Arab vote
Trump: 42%
Harris: 41%
C@tmomma, ar, TK were saying that Arab Americans will not support Trump. What do have to say to this poll?
It’s not a national vote and hopefully the idiots who are supporting Trump will be in the minority in areas that matter in the election. You can’t cure stupid when stupid believes it’s right.
”
My take
Arab Americans are so angry that so many of their Arab relatives and friends and getting killed in Middle East with implicit support and inaction of America , they decided to vote for Trump knowing their lives will be worse under Trump maybe for this reason.
We all know that one of the main reasons MAGA Americans want to vote for Trump is because they want to destroy the joint. Maybe half of Arab Americans are voting for Trump for that reason out of anger and despair. We all know that Harris is part of Biden administration.
Ven @ #111 Friday, October 4th, 2024 – 9:14 am
It’s just one poll, and consider the source. And especially consider the source’s public mission statement:
They want to influence policy. To have the candidates and their parties fighting for their votes. A 50/50 (or 41/42) result is a lot more effective at doing that than a lopsided one.
So I’d take that result with a grain of salt. Even if I didn’t, I can’t see a cohort with almost two-thirds of its members reporting active discrimination and concerns for their personal safety turning out to vote for the guy who vilifies and discriminates against them. For that subset, it’s personal. Trump’s ceiling here should be about 35%.
It will be interesting to see what actually happens on the day.
Florida Presidential Polling:
Trump (R): 50%
Harris (D): 48%
RMG Research / Sept 27, 2024 / n=774
Arizona Presidential Polling:
Harris (D): 48%
Trump (R): 46%
Highground / Sept 29, 2024 / n=500
But his crowd sizes…
https://www.threads.net/@kamalahq/post/DArKa-UJ6nE/?xmt=AQGz55b6y-8mo0ssHiIc5XwaEnH21ICoDJY6sfGhPgjD4g
Now here’s a Surprise..
By Ian Duncan and David J. Lynch
October 3, 2024 at 6:57 p.m. EDT
Striking dockworkers agreed to go back to work Thursday evening after reaching a tentative agreement with port operators for a 62 percent wage increase that extends the current contract through Jan. 15, providing more time to bargain over remaining issues.
WaPO
Can I have a 62% wage increase?
”
sprocket_says:
Friday, October 4, 2024 at 10:12 am
Now here’s a Surprise..
By Ian Duncan and David J. Lynch
October 3, 2024 at 6:57 p.m. EDT
Striking dockworkers agreed to go back to work Thursday evening after reaching a tentative agreement with port operators for a 62 percent wage increase that extends the current contract through Jan. 15, providing more time to bargain over remaining issues.
WaPO
”
WOW!
The cost of clearing the decks for election, 62% increase in wages.
Winning the November election, Priceless! 🙂
Jan 6th Insurrectionist Shot To Death At Her Home After Threatening Two People With A Shotgun.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/3/2274560/-Jan-6th-Insurrectionist-Shot-To-Death-At-Her-Home?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
”
Tamara Parry, 57, a Jan 6th insurrectionist was shot dead on her doorstep as she was being presented legal paperwork from two men. I cannot tell if Parry was ever prosecuted for her involvement in the Jan 6th insurrection (She was tear gassed and pepper sprayed by the cops, and she did enter the Capitol Hill Building unlawfully). But Parry lost her medical license over her participation on Jan 6th.
“A Seattle doctor whose medical license was suspended after she participated in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol was shot and killed after pointing a gun at two people delivering paperwork at her West Seattle home on Tuesday.
A 40-year-old man whom police have not identified shot Tamara Towers Parry, 57, multiple times in the torso outside her Southwest Hudson Street home around 1 p.m., according to the Seattle Police Department and the King County Medical Examiner’s Office. Police have not arrested anyone and are not looking for suspects, spokesperson Detective Brian Pritchard said Wednesday…
Tuesday’s shooting happened less than two weeks after Towers Parry’s home was foreclosed on and scheduled to be sold at a Sept. 20 auction, King County housing records show. Towers Parry had failed to make about $24,000 in mortgage payments and still owed more than $225,000 on the home, which she previously shared with her ex-husband, according to the records.
A photo taken of the house on Tuesday showed a large U.S. flag hanging from the home’s front window underneath the word “QAnon,” the name of a far-right conspiracy theory that gained traction online after the 2016 election of former President Donald Trump.”
62 percent increase over 6 years
Victoria @ #122 Friday, October 4th, 2024 – 11:16 am
I’d still take it.
The Boss endorses Harris Walz.
Sums it up quite well.
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2024/oct/04/bruce-springsteen-endorses-kamala-harris-for-president-while-criticising-dangerous-trump
Ven says Friday, October 4, 2024 at 11:16 am
Another life destroyed by right wing conspiracy theorists. I doubt the creator of “QAnon” will ever be held to account though. Or Trump for embracing and amplifying their toxic messages.
A person got shot dead. I don’t see how that is connected in this case to their political views.
Would they not have been shot dead if the confronted a person on their property like Harris has said she will do?
A bit of pot and kettle going on.
“A person got shot dead. I don’t see how that is connected in this case to their political views.”
Right wing culture war brain rot seems to foster violence in both the personal and political space
Donald Trump Mocks Jimmy Carter on His Milestone 100th Birthday
https://people.com/donald-trump-mocks-jimmy-carter-on-100th-birthday-8722011
Liz Cheney
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/03/liz-cheney-kamala-harris-wisconsin
FUBAR says Friday, October 4, 2024 at 1:46 pm
Her medical licence was suspended after her participation in Jan 6. She was about to lose her home after foreclosure as she was $24000 behind in her mortgage payments. The two people she pointed the shotgun at were not breaking in, they were delivering paperwork.
If she had not gone down the QAnon rabbit hole, she would probably still be alive, practicing medicine and financially stable.
Do you have any evidence to back that claim up?
The demographic evidence of gun related deaths in the US demonstrates that Blacks and Hispanics are massively over represented in gun violence – not really a strong Right Wing cohort.
https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/firearms-death-rate-by-raceethnicity/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D
A woman opens her door and gets shot, and you think that of me?
No, I am the one hwho knocks!
bc says:
Friday, October 4, 2024 at 2:31 pm
This a site that is generally related to statistical analysis of data. One ad hoc claim doesn’t support the idea that “ Right wing culture war brain rot seems to foster violence in both the personal and political space”
Harris had better get a wriggle on. She’s putting my tip at risk.
A cursory glance at Mr Google
https://www.statista.com/statistics/476456/mass-shootings-in-the-us-by-shooter-s-race/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-supremacists-behind-over-80-extremism-related-us-murders-2022-2023-02-23/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/17/briefing/right-wing-mass-shootings.html
https://www.salon.com/2023/05/01/conservative-america-has-far-more-than-liberal-america-study-finds/
This GOP candidate for a state seat didn’t want people to think he was the male equivalent of a ‘childless cat lady’. So he rented his friend’s wife and kids for a photo op. It didn’t go well.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/childless-gop-candidate-posed-with-friends-wife-and-kids-for-campaign-video_n_66f814e1e4b027bd4385edd9,/a>
Colbert: Smith happens. 😀
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7wnkQJioBw
FUBAR says Friday, October 4, 2024 at 3:16 pm
I never said that it did. People can go down all sorts of rabbit holes that end up leading them to bad places. QAnon is an example.
Edit: Look also at “pizza gate” which preceded QAnon. That basically destroyed the life of the deluded guy who shot up a pizza restaurant.
C@tmomma
Nebraska senate race
Yes it’s interesting. I think I posted a polls here last week showing this dead heat. A race largely been under the radar.
It’s clearly personal appeal because the other Nebraska senate seat is also up as a special election, and the GOP candidate is polling as you’d normally expect – significant double-digits ahead of the Dem candidate.
Something you never thought you’d see on a presidential campaign trail. If he were still alive today I wonder how John McCain might swing these days.
The Harris campaign need to step things up. I know I’m in Australia, but I follow a lot of US media and social media and it feels to me like the campaign is not doing all it can to maintain momemtum.
One of the biggest advantages Harris has over Trump is her youth, her vigour and her vitality, and she really should be grounding him down with a near ubiquitous media presence at events every day (multiple times per day even) of the week.
She’s running out of time, and if Trump is good to his word by running away from a second debate, she needs every opportunity to get in front of voters’ eyeballs. She can’t do that by doing 3-4 events per week. She and Walz need to do more.
yabba
Thanks. I love you too. 🙂
@Mike Hilliard
“Liz Cheney
“I was a Republican even before Donald Trump started spray-tanning.””
I watched that! I thought she could have added after a pause “in other words, forever. . .” – would have got her a second laugh and clap as well as reinforcing her strong conservative credentials (which make her standing with Harris all the more relevant).
Confessions 5.31
Fully agree. She’s not capitalising on her talents and making that unspoken contrast with Trump’s understandably faltering energy (given he’s 78 years old).
She needs to be letting the American people ‘get to know’ her in the way you describe.
I know it’s silly, but part of me wonders if she really wants to win and be President or does it frighten her.
NBC News
US Early voting numbers.
Watch out for GA, PA, MI, WI, NC, IN
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
New Jersey
We finally have a poll!
Activote 4 September-2 October
Harris 56-44% Trump
Normal service seems to have resumed here.
Confessions @ #142 Friday, October 4th, 2024 – 5:31 pm
How many is Trump doing?
Where is she holding these events each week?
Have you allowed for travel time between battlegrounds in calling for more than 3-4 events per week?
What non-event things is she up to?
Is she absolved of her VP responsibilities between now and election day (keeping in mind a hurricane just hit, a major strike appears to have been averted, and Netanyahu is making a mess* of the Middle East, and that the RW media has already called her out for campaigning in the middle of all these things)?
3-4 per week sounds pretty good, imo. Especially if the hurricane aftermath is not forgotten and Biden can find some way to bring (brief, temporary) peace to the Middle East.
* Okay, more of a mess than there was previously.
As an addendum to my 5:55 pm post, I am posting poll numbers for enthusiasm. Yes, it is a a bit old article( mid August). But anyone can show otherwise that enthusiasm amongst Democrats has gone down.
https://www.thewellnews.com/opinion-polls/poll-quantifies-surge-in-democrat-enthusiasm-about-2024-election/
“The biggest jump has been among Democrats (from 46% in June to 85% now), but there has also been a notable increase in enthusiasm among independents (from 34% to 53%).
Among Republicans, enthusiasm for the Trump-Harris contest (71%) is identical to what it was for the Trump-Biden rematch in June (71%).
“This is clearly a different ballgame. The nominee change has raised the ceiling for potential Democratic support in the presidential contest by a small but crucial amount, at least for now,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, in a statement accompanying the release of the poll.
The pollsters also asked specifically about voters’ enthusiasm for each party’s choice of nominee.
The national electorate’s enthusiasm for Trump as the Republican nominee (41%) is basically unchanged from February (40%).
However, enthusiasm for Harris as the Democratic standard-bearer (47%) is significantly higher than it was for Biden earlier this year (32%).
Currently, Democratic voters are slightly more enthusiastic about having Harris as their nominee (92%) than Republicans are about having Trump at the top of their ticket (84%).
In February, Republican enthusiasm for Trump was similarly high (80%), but Democratic enthusiasm about the prospect of Biden being their nominee was significantly lower (62%).
Just under half of registered voters say they will either definitely (38%) or probably (10%) vote for Harris in November and, in a separate question, just over four in 10 said they would definitely (33%) or probably (10%) support Trump.
About half say they will definitely not vote for Trump (49%), while a somewhat smaller number say they definitely will not vote for Harris (44%). ”
Before people like BTsays, FUBAR, Centre and Badthinker say that being a Registered Democratic voter doesn’t mean they vote for Democrats, with enthusiasm for Harris running at 92% what are the chances registered democrats will vote for Trump?
Another argument people like BTsays, FUBAR, Centre and Badthinker make is that Registered Republican voters and Republican independent voters vote on Election day (for example, 2020 election), so current number for Registered Republican voters in early voting is good.
But the thing is Trump told Republican voters in 2020 not to believe mail voting and vote on Election day.
But Trump now asked Republican voters to vote early as well in addition to election day voting.