All three of the main forecast models are now very much singing from the same song sheet, with The Economist and FiveThirtyEight both putting Kamala Harris’s win probability at 56% and Nate Silver’s differing only insofar as it goes to one decimal place. A very similar story is told by a regularly updated YouGov MRP poll presently drawing on 100,000 respondents, which rates Harris favourite in enough states to get within 13 electoral college votes of a majority and another two (Pennsylvania and Georgia) as toss-ups each with enough votes to get her over the line. Adrian Beaumont’s latest overview is available at The Conversation.
vote1julia says Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 2:26 pm
Given the word salad that Trump’s been putting out, it shouldn’t be too hard for them to argue that he’s suffering dementia and not fit to stand trial.
That’s the difference between a mandatory stay in a psych ward and a mandatory stay in jail. Happy for Trump to get either one.
Chris Gaskin,
Welcome! 🙂
meher baba says:
Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 11:21 am
…..insane tariff hikes that will fuel disastrous global inflation….
Not so much. Tariffs repress consumption, leading to a tendency for over-production, and, in turn leading to cuts to production, employment and investment. That is, protectionist policies are deflationary. The Great Depression of the 1930s was in significant part due to the pursuit of retaliatory tariff policies by competitor economies. This crushed demand….crushed real wages…caused prices to fall….unemployment to soar and public finance to collapse….the development of what Keynes described as a ‘liquidity trap’.
Very conscious of this, the post war reconstruction plan, imposed by the US, was predicated on free trade. To organise this, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was created. Every country on the planet benefitted from this. We’ve had 80-odd years without generalised, prolonged and profound economic contraction.
A re-run of mercantilist policies will presage another depression. Make no mistake.
Yes, with respect to reproductive rights there are some who are anti-abortion – but much of the party and voters are basically like most Catholics in the West – publicly support it but when it comes to personal compliance – females are going to use contraception and get abortions when they want them – and the Republicans appear to slowly moving towards a more nuanced outlook that recognises that.
With respect to the denigration of mothers – the Trad Mum phenomena (which Infind ridiculous)is a response to the feminist “you can have it all” rubbish. The fact is while there are a few females who have no desire to have kids, most women do want to be Mums. It is a perfectly natural thing and can be very rewarding. It’s the basis of the survival of the species. What JD Vance is working on are policies to allow couples to be able to be able to make the choice for one parent, normally the mother, to not have to work. This is a good thing and there’s a whole range of policy areas that contribute to that – real wages, house prices, maternity leave, childcare to name a few.
Team Katich says:
Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 9:31 am
There are posts on here that just get my goat up. Yeah, I’m not always the best I can be – but I come here as a stress reliever because I can say what I think rather than having to worry about what others think. And William is pretty good and jerking my chain when needed.
But thanks for the comment.
I’ve just come out of surgery so flying high (just waiting for some better pain meds – they just don’t want to acccept when an patient says their pain meds aren’t working) and you guys have my undivided attention for the next fortnight.
Trump – agree.
However, there is a list of others doing policy work to come up with policies that work. JD Vance agreed with a lot of the policies that Walz put up in the debate. There is life after Trump.
FUBAR @ #56 Thursday, October 3rd, 2024 – 4:46 pm
We like you more this way. Because it shows you are capable of nuanced thought and seem to realise that we are too.
I still think Harris will win, but it will very close.
A lot of the recent polling is from Republican outfits, there’s a deliberate attempt to swamp the media market with polling that’s advantageous towards Trump – I guess the intention of this is to dishearten Democrat supporters and cause some of them to stay home.
The problem with 538 is that they don’t filter out a lot of the suspect polling.
Democracy Sausage
“there’s a deliberate attempt to swamp the media market with polling that’s advantageous towards Trump”
I seriously doubt that.
Very smart guy is young JD. He’s just another one, pretty much like our own Malcolm Turnbull, who should have been on the other side politically but appears to have assessed that the shortest route to the top was via riding on Trump’s coat tails and hitching his caboose to the Trump bandwagon. As I say, very smart to see the emergence of the Manosphere and how it could benefit him to carve out a position of prominence via the burgeoning podcast environment that had a captive audience of young men whose main concern wasn’t politics but sport and gaming and the fitness crowd. It bleeds into the Wellness demographic that RFK Jr has glommed onto and these are all people who have very little concern for niceties and traditional modes of politics. If you can get them to vote and keep voting they are a very malleable crowd and I’m sure JD Vance knows that that’s where his future lies. He just should have been honest with himself and used his undoubted powers of persuasion and being a chameleon who can shape shift with ease, to try and change the people rather than trying to fit in with what Donald Trump has created.
However, as I said, he’s a very smart man and he saw the shortest path to power being via Donald Trump. All I can hope is that he shape shifts again when and if he gets in and, post Trump, is honest with himself and pleases his wife, who’s on the record as being more of a Democrat than he is.
BTSays @ #61 Thursday, October 3rd, 2024 – 5:11 pm
It’s true, actually. I read an article about it the other day. Also, did you read the Trafalgar emails to the Trump campaign? Bells the cat on it.
”
High Streetsays:
Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 3:07 pm
Importantly, in the 538 poll average of the Generic Ballot (defacto vote for House of Rep) there’s been a 2.0 – 2.5% lead for the Democrats for 5 weeks
………..
………..
Republicans actually won the 2022 House popular vote by 1%, even whilst Trump lost the President popular vote
”
HS:
“Republicans actually won the 2022 House popular vote by 1%, even whilst Trump lost the President popular vote”
Do you mean 2020 because no Presidential election in 2022?
In 2020 Dems won popular vote by 3% and lost 13 seats.
In 2022, Dems lost popular vote by about 4% .
Winning or losing the popular vote for House elections is a bit of a red herring – as so many members (you wouldn’t believe how many, on both sides) are elected unopposed in their district.
Obviously evaluating the trendline of it has some value (though not necessarily comparing directly to the concurrent vote for President), though even there be careful lest there’s more or less seats where candidates ran unopposed by the other side.
My personal view is that Trump is very well placed to win and it’s not even close.
Trump is the epitome of the shy Tory effect. I would expect him to probably win all the swing states, and in all likelihood the popular vote as well.
You don’t need to be Nostrodamus to understand that.
A conversation with realistic analysis of polling from someone who is running the simulations based on Democratic private polling (not everything is given away but some insight is gained):
https://youtu.be/c5LuPcYWXp0?si=mK90lIDUDosheCYh
Trump will never win the popular vote, because California constantly delivers a vote of 60% or over to the Democrats.
A reminder the NSW Bludgers Lunch is tomorrow, 12pm at Abdul’s in Surry Hills. I’ve booked the table under Fess.
Menu here for those who like to plan ahead: https://www.abdulrestaurant.com.au/restaurant-menu/
And remember Abdul’s is BYO for those who want a bevvie over lunch.
BTSays @ #65 Thursday, October 3rd, 2024 – 4:57 pm
There is a site for that…..
https://www.270towin.com/2024-house-election-uncontested-races/
24 unopposed seats fairly evenly shared between the parties.
Places like the Cook Report factor these in when they come up with a ‘popular vote’ percentage.
The University of Texas – Austin is probably the epicenter of left-leaning Democrats in the State.
So this event yesterday had an interesting line up..
– Beto O’Rourke
– AOC
– Bernie Sanders
https://www.youtube.com/live/2mSmmHBOytI?si=reuaPxOoXsmJ6zfL
And Beto is running for Texas Governor – in the 2026 midterms
@Catmomma
I wonder if the prospective presidency of Trump or Vance is scarier.
Trump seemingly cares mostly about the accumulation and maintenance of power rather than the implementation of a retrogressive agenda – I think his government would be less likely to bring in a national abortion ban than a Vance administration. But he is more capable of staying in power/ending elections than Vance, simply because Trump has more charisma than Vance so could win an election more likely. I feel that both are similarly repellent to young non broboy voters (Trump as a boogeyman and Vance due to his hard-right social positions). Just my two cents.
TK
Thanks. I wasn’t sure if some sites had worked out how to navigate that difficulty, obviously they have.
02.12.1972,
One has to think that JD Vance is a more scary prospect because he actually is ‘a very stable genius’. He’s young and a very willing Masters Apprentice.
“THIS JUST IN — “Dead even: POLITICO snap poll shows stark division on debate,” by Melanie Mason: “Asked who won Tuesday’s debate, voters were split 50-50 over whether it was JD VANCE or TIM WALZ, according to a POLITICO/Focaldata snap poll of likely voters conducted just after the two faced off in a studio in New York City. …
“Democrats overwhelmingly sided with Walz, while Republicans picked Vance as the winner. Walz had a commanding advantage with independents, 58 percent of whom sided with the Minnesota governor while 42 percent gave Vance the edge. …
“But Democrats shouldn’t get too giddy about his performance with this coveted demographic: Independent voters were also far more likely to say they didn’t tune in to the debate.”. . .
… And when it was all over, the two shook hands and shared what looked like a genuinely warm conversation, introducing each other to their wives.
Most of the political pros who watched the debate last night — including all of us in the Playbook group chat — called it for Vance, and the veneer of civility tended to work to his advantage.
Badly trailing Walz in favorability in poll after poll, he delivered a smooth and empathetic performance — and there’s some evidence that viewers noticed. Among those surveyed last night by POLITICO/Focaldata, more than half of those who watched the debate said Vance was ready to be president — versus less than a third of those who didn’t watch. We can’t help but wonder where this version of Vance has been all summer.
But as the poll’s topline showed, the atmospherics only went so far in swinging voters who by and large seem to have made up their minds five weeks out from Election Day.
VANCE’S BEST MOMENT: His years spent in Yale Law School, delivering book-tour speeches and — more recently — doing scores of media interviews sparring with sometimes unfriendly interrogators paid off with a polished performance last night. He executed the basics well, making sure, for instance, to take time right off the bat to introduce himself. (Walz didn’t do that until about 40 minutes in.)
And when the discussion turned to the economy, he methodically turned his answer into an indictment of Walz’ running mate, connecting Americans’ financial stress to his own personal story: “I know what it’s like to not be able to afford the things you need to afford. We can do so much better.”
He delivered, in short, the type of debate performance that Republicans were praying to see from Trump. He shied away from personal attacks — even the questions about Walz’s military service that he’d fanned early in the race — and instead focused on tying KAMALA HARRIS to JOE BIDEN.”
I must be one of the ‘political pros’ they mention 🙂 as I really think this was more of a win for Trump/Vance than Harris/Walz.
If only to solidify the more moderate portion of their base and right-leaning independents, perhaps even never-Trumpers with second thoughts.
Walz, on the other hand, seemed a perfectly nice and inoffensive guy – but just not confident enough in himself and therefore not presidential. Some will argue this is merely style over substance but these things matter to undecided voters.
Continued. . .
“VANCE’S WORST MOMENT: While millions of Americans watched last night’s debate, many millions more didn’t — and their impressions of the two would-be veeps are going to be shaped by short clips of the action that are going to be shared widely online and on TV coverage over the coming days.
It’s hard to see any one moment going more viral then when Walz pressed Vance on the 2020 election with a simple question: Who won? “Tim, I’m focused on the future,” he said in reply — prompting Walz to call it a “damning nonanswer.”. . .
. . .WALZ’S BEST MOMENT: Beyond the telling moment pressing Vance on 2020, Walz had a handful of standout lines: He convincingly described his makeover on gun control by describing his meeting with Sandy Hook families: “They were looking at my 7-year-old’s picture on the wall. Their 7-year-olds were dead.” And he hit his marks on abortion rights, invoking specific cases to argue that under the GOP, “the right to control your own body is determined on geography.”
His biggest coup, though, was persistently turning the conversation back to Trump — reminding viewers that he’d called climate change a “hoax,” that he’d solicited donations from oil executives and promised tax benefits in return, that he’d paid no taxes for years at a time and that he’d tanked a bipartisan bill that would have helped address the southern border.
WALZ’S WORST MOMENT: When various Dems claimed in recent days that the Minnesota governor wasn’t much of a debater, we dismissed that as the usual pre-debate spin. Well, turns out sometimes you lower expectations for good reason.
From the outset, Walz seemed incredibly nervous — far from the comfortable, folksy presence he’s exhibited on the campaign trail. And while eventually he warmed up, Walz stumbled on his words throughout, saying at one point, “I’ve become friends with school shooters.” (Yes, he meant the victims of school shooters.)
But the most cringeworthy moment of the night was when moderators pressed Walz on previous, false claims that he’d been in China during the Tiananmen Square protests. (He actually went months later). Walz didn’t have an answer prepared and instead meandered through a response where he called himself a “knucklehead” and eventually acknowledged he “misspoke.”
“The answer would have been best delivered in Chinese for as understandable as it wasn’t,” as DAVID AXELROD (Democratic strategist) said last night.
Oct 3 (Reuters) – Vice President Kamala Harris plans to campaign with former Congresswoman Liz Cheney on Thursday in Wisconsin as the Democratic presidential candidate tries to court Republican and centrist voters in a battleground state for the Nov. 5 election.
Cheney and her father Dick Cheney, former Vice President under George Bush, are two of the most prominent Republicans to have endorsed Harris against her opponent Donald Trump.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-woos-republican-votes-with-liz-cheney-event-centrist-moves-2024-10-03/?utm_campaign=trueanthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=threads
I read this in a comments section:
Trump is old, tired, mentally ill with a severe personality disorder, and doesn’t really want the job except as a way to avoid prison. And yet the election is close.
America’s conservative media remains the most effective propaganda machine the world has ever seen. The Chinese and Russians and North Koreans stand in awe of its power — which is largely derived from the fact that its victims are willing.
Ven
Why repeat on here such extreme and outlandish claims (especially regarding propaganda) from a ‘comments section’ elsewhere?
Trump’s racist lies caused chaos behind the scenes in Ohio city
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/2/2274281/-Trump-s-racist-lies-caused-chaos-behind-the-scenes-in-Ohio-city?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_8&pm_medium=web
“A cache of internal emails from the Springfield, Ohio city government has revealed the details of abuse, harassment, and fallout the city experienced after Donald Trump and Sen. JD Vance promoted racist lies about Haitian migrants.
Many in the migrant community there have received Temporary Protected Status from the federal government, following outbreaks of political violence in Haiti. Trump and Vance have repeatedly amplified false claims—first circulated by white supremacist groups—accusing the community of abducting and eating domestic cats and dogs.
404 Media reports that the emails, secured via a public records request, show a town under siege.”
CNN
Fact check: 12 election lies Trump is using to set the stage to dispute a potential 2024 defeat
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/30/politics/fact-check-trump-election-lies-2024/index.html
“Former President Donald Trump has escalated his long-running assault on the integrity of US elections as the 2024 presidential campaign enters its final stretch, using a new series of lies about ballots, vote-counting and the election process to lay the groundwork to challenge a potential defeat in November.
Nonpartisan democracy experts say they’re seeing many of the same warning signs that were blinking red before Election Day four years ago, when Trump flooded the zone with election lies and conspiracy theories that he amplified after losing to Joe Biden. His campaign of deception culminated in the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.
“The threats have not abated; they have only increased,” said Lindsay Daniels, a senior director at the nonpartisan Democracy Fund, which works to strengthen US democracy. “We saw a lot of activity in 2020 around peddling false claims and frivolous lawsuits. We are already seeing signs now, stage-setting, that these things may be attempted again.”
Trump has made at least 12 distinct false claims over the last two months that raise baseless doubts about the validity of a potential victory by Vice President Kamala Harris. (Recent polls suggest the race is very close, and Trump could certainly still win.)
Thanks for the welcome Catmomma. I live in a country conservative electorate and mainly socialise with older men but they are some nice people who have just been blinded by the Trump spin by getting a lot of their news on Sky After Dark. It’s scary for me to think people could be led to vote for such a person but it’s history repeating itself again by a charismatic snake charmer selling a false hope of a return to ye olde days and they won’t listen to logic and again these people are good people who on most topics will be friendly and nice. People are complex and it’s why I enjoyed the VP debate yesterday because it showed that two complex people could work together on issues that need solving
”
Chris Gaskinsays:
Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 9:18 pm
Thanks for the welcome Catmomma. I live in a country conservative electorate and mainly socialise with older men but they are some nice people who have just been blinded by the Trump spin by getting a lot of their news on Sky After Dark. It’s scary for me to think people could be led to vote for such a person but it’s history repeating itself again by a charismatic snake charmer selling a false hope of a return to ye olde days and they won’t listen to logic and again these people are good people who on most topics will be friendly and nice.
”
There is a saying “Sheep only trusts the butcher to protect her”
Margot Sanger-Katz/New York Times:
“Millions Could Lose Insurance Subsidies, Depending on the Election
The issue is getting less attention than a possible repeal of the Affordable Care Act, but it’s much more likely to happen.
Subsidies that help around 20 million Americans pay for health insurance could disappear after next year, depending on the outcome of November’s election.
The subsidies, which reduce the price of health insurance for people who buy their coverage in the Obamacare marketplaces, were passed as a temporary measure in 2021, then extended as part of the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022. In that time, Obamacare enrollment has nearly doubled. If Congress doesn’t extend them, the subsidies will expire at the end of 2025, and the Trump campaign and key Republicans in Congress have said they do not support the extension.
Without the subsidies, some Americans who buy their own health coverage would still get financial help from the government, but hundreds or thousands of dollars less. And families earning more than around $100,000 a year would lose access to federal assistance.
Kimberly Atkins Stohr of The Boston Globe says that Gov. Walz refused to allow the debate moderators or post-debate pundits to “sane-wash” JD Vance’s answer to the Jan. 6 question.
“In the exchange, Walz cut through Vance’s attempt to smooth talk his way out of acknowledging the truth: that Vance is the running mate of a man who tried to fraudulently, forcefully, and unconstitutionally stay in office against the will of voters, and who stands criminally indicted of doing so. Vance is on the ticket of the only former president who, before our own eyes, tried to kneecap democracy to hold on to power.
That is disqualifying for anyone seeking to be first in the line of succession. Yet it seems that very important fact was lost amid the postdebate discourse that focused on the more polished nature of Vance’s answers over Walz’s.
This was a debate, not figure skating. There are no style points. It does not matter if Vance had an elegant delivery if all he delivered were lies, contradictions, revisionist history, and a defense of a former president who openly embraces autocracy.”
Rick Wilson
@TheRickWilson
The most important part of last night‘s debate was the final discussion on January 6 and what caused it.
Fox News played a central role in promoting and creating the lies of a stolen election.
If
@FoxNews
is unafraid of Smartmatic’s lawsuit – which could bankrupt them – why has Rupert Murdoch never taken the stand in a defamation suit? After all, he and Lachlan control that network with an iron fist.
Accountability is coming for Fox.
#PutRupertOnTheStand
BOMBSHELL: New Unsealed Filing Reveals Trump Records Related to Jan 6 | Bulwark Takes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F86Y6Im-CM8
sprocket_ says:
Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 6:29 pm
How many elections has he lost to date?
You’d think he’d have got the message by now.
Giuliani’s attempts to overturn 2020 election partly thwarted by wrong number
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/03/rudy-giuliani-michigan-fake-electors-text
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7Z-eUmR2bM
FUBAR says Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 11:12 pm
Oh, you’re talking about O’Rourke. I thought you might have been talking about Trump.
I have to admit I was thinking the same thing about O’Rourke when I read sprocket_’s post.
Beto is trying to raise the Democratic flag in Texas. He’s a Davey Crockett. Good on him. The Vile Reactionary Party has called the tune there for too long.
BTSays says:
Thursday, October 3, 2024 at 7:58 pm
Ven
Why repeat on here such extreme and outlandish claims (especially regarding propaganda) from a ‘comments section’ elsewhere?
Why not cite the truth about Trump? He is a criminal, a traitor, a cheater, a sex-offender, a stupendous liar and deceiver, a crook, a bully, a misogynist and a racist. These are his good points. The rest of his energy is dedicated to trying to explode constitutional government in the US.
He’s using the classical Nazi techniques in propaganda to achieve this. He is a hater. He will become a killer if he’s not stopped. He has already whistled up killers to do his work for him. He is a violent hater.
It’s not possible to state this too often.
Stooge
Don’t post so late at night, it doesn’t reflect well on your sanity.
BTSays says:
Friday, October 4, 2024 at 1:47 am
Stooge
Don’t post so late at night, it doesn’t reflect well on your sanity.
I’m in Western Australia….not as late as as you might think. I usually get to sleep at about 11.00. Earlier than that doesn’t work for me.. Now, noticing the time, it’s relatively early here: 4.14 am. But I wake around 3.00 or 3.30 most mornings. I’d rather it were 5.30 or 6.00, but I wake up. I read for half an hour and then go back to sleep. My mind is active. I have things to do. One of them is not skimming over bludger notes. But I do that anyway.
You’re Trump-o-phile. Now that does raise questions about your sanity. Trump is a serious threat to the well-being of nearly every person on the planet. He’s a demagogue. He is very, very dangerous. You seem to have swallowed his bait. He has suckered you. You’re now fucked up.
Stooge, melatonin might help. See your doctor. They take sleep disorders far more seriously these days as it can directly cause or indicate other major heath problems.
Letting go of your thoughts works for me. 🙂
On the Nebraska Senate race:
An Independent Senate Candidate Sets off Alarm Bells in Deep-Red Nebraska
Joe Perticone
Oct 3
‘Anyone keyed into the Senate races this campaign cycle knows the battlegrounds: Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Montana, and maybe, just maybe, Texas. But there’s one other state we might soon be adding to that list, at least judging from the panic being expressed by the state’s Republicans: Nebraska.
Everyone expected Nebraska’s incumbent Republican senator, Deb Fischer, to cruise to re-election. But then a challenger emerged, and he’s starting to pick up momentum. Independent labor union leader Dan Osborn has raised a lot of money in recent months, and polls have tightened enough that the Cook Political Report has shifted their forecast for the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Osborn closing the gap to within three points. Retire Career Politicians PAC, an outside group supporting Osborn, circulated a memo describing the independent candidate’s “real opportunity for an historic upset,” adding:
As voters have learned more about Dan Osborn, the race for Senate has tightened to a dead heat. Nebraska’s electorate continues to lean Republican, favoring Trump in the presidential race 54-37. But Osborn’s positive message pushing back against corruption and standing up for working families over political elites has broken through with voters. 44% of voters have seen, read, or heard positives about Osborn recently. As a result, he is now familiar to almost half of voters, and is viewed positively by a three-to-one margin (33% favorable / 11% unfavorable).
That set off alarms in Washington. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) dipped into their war chest to give Fischer a much-need boost, cutting a $172,000 check for coordinated ads with the incumbent.
Osborn has some unique benefits in this race. First, he is completely untethered from the Democratic party. Osborn rebuffed offers of help from the Democrats, whose association with his candidacy would have made it harder for him to connect with the state’s more conservative electorate. The Democrats are helping him in one specific way, however: They didn’t field a candidate in Nebraska, so Osborn isn’t having to open a second front to contend for the 24 percent of the vote that the last Democratic Senate candidate picked up in the 2020 race.
As I mentioned, Osborn has also raised a ton of money against all expectations: $1.6 million, according to the most recent filings at the end of June. Outside groups supporting Osborn have also chipped in a nearly identical amount this cycle.
Osborn isn’t hesitant about using that money, either. His campaign is spending big on advertising tailored to his unique message. According to AdImpact, Osborn has already spent $4.7 million to Fischer’s $2 million, and both have $3 million in future ad reservations.
Nebraska’s unique rules for apportioning electoral college votes make it a uniquely appealing Plains States destination for Democrats, who pay special attention to the area surrounding Omaha, where one EC vote is available for the taking. Osborn’s candidacy is a new source of appeal: His Senate bid, as unlikely as it still is, could make it possible for them to pick up an ideological ally without having to spend the money to help elect him. That said, should he win, they can’t count on his support on every issue facing the upper chamber. Osborn has been explicit about not aligning himself with the national party.
Osborn’s campaign will create political ripples even if he doesn’t succeed in deposing Fischer. If he wins or even just gives Fischer a run for her money, it could create a roadmap for Democrats to find success elsewhere down the ballot. Left-leaning populist candidates can support many popular policies that go against the Republican agenda without being sullied by a politically toxic link to the Democratic establishment in more conservative states.’
(The Bulwark)
It’s been shown time and again there is no statistically measurable such thing as the shy tory effect. It was made up as a way to explain 2016 in the US and UK. Sampling errors and actual tory voters are what saw the 2016 polls miss the outcomes of those two nations election and referendum outcomes. It’s a term that should be shelved and forgotten about, “it’s so 2016”.
Rated #43 on the 538 Pollster ratings, Highpoint University has a solid 1,000 LV North Carolina poll
Trump 48 (with 2 unsure)
Harris 48 (zero unsure)
Stein 51
Robinson 32
https://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2023/08/106memoPOLS.pdf
And p26 of the Highpoint survey has the detailed steps how they determine Likely voters…