It’s been a while since I last did an update of preselection and related federal election news, in which time the following has accumulated:
• Labor’s national executive anointed candidates a fortnight ago for three usually safe Labor seats in Melbourne whose incumbents will retire at the election. In Bill Shorten’s seat of Maribyrnong, Labor’s candidate will be Jo Briskey, national co-ordinator of the Left faction United Workers Union. Much has been made of the fact that Briskey moved to Melbourne in 2019 after an unsuccessful run for the Brisbane seat of Bonner, and has a backer in Queensland Left heavyweight Gary Bullock.
• The candidate in Brendan O’Connor’s seat of Gorton will be Alice Jordan-Baird, a water policy expert. Earlier reports indicated the preselection was developing into a contest between rival Right faction power bases, with Jordan-Baird the favourite of that associated with Richard Marles and the Transport Workers Union, while the Bill Shorten/Australian Workers Union axis favoured Brimbank mayor Ranka Rasic. State minister Natalie Hutchins, a Shorten ally who was earlier mentioned as a potential contender in Maribyrnong, said Jordan-Baird lacked a connection with the area and was chosen over an “experienced local” in Rasic.
• Basem Abdo, an adviser to outgoing member Maria Vamvakinou and fellow member of the Socialist Left, has been confirmed as Labor’s candidate for Calwell. Earlier reports indicated resistance among local party branches to a perceived factional fait accompli, reflecting general discontent around the fact that the party’s national executive has again taken over the Victorian preselection process.
• The Liberals have preselected Tom Venning, a Barunga Grains farming manager who formerly worked for the NAB and Deloitte, as their candidate for the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated at the election with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey. Venning’s uncle, Ivan Venning, was a veteran state member of parliament. Other contenders included Suzanne Waters, a former United Australia Party candidate described by InDaily as “a regional paramedic who reportedly quit her job with SA Health over its COVID vaccination mandate”, who was endorsed by arch-conservative Senator Alex Antic. Also in the field were Kimba mayor Dean Johnson, Whyalla police officer Matt Sampson, and Rikki Lambert, chief-of-staff to ex-Family First Senator Bob Day.
• The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party has preselected Lisa Bayliss, police officer and senior vice-president of the Northern Territory Police Association, as its candidate for the Darwin seat of Solomon, held for Labor by Luke Gosling on a margin of 9.4%. Camden Smith of the Northern Territory News reports the CLP preselection for the other Northern Territory seat of Lingiari, which Labor came close to losing against the trend in 2022, “has been deferred and will be considered by the party’s management committee in coming weeks”.
• There was a brief flurry of early election talk last week after Anthony Albanese suggested a double dissolution election could result if the Coalition and the Greens persisted in blocking the government’s housing bill. The notion is complicated by the fact that a double dissolution cannot take place in the last six months before the term of parliament expires, the relevant date being January 25. To create a trigger, the government would need to follow a rejection of the bill this week with another attempt after a delay of more than three months, which would require that parliament be recalled in late December or January.
• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Victorian Liberal sources saying their polling has them “in front or neck-and-neck in Aston, Chisholm, McEwen and Goldstein, with Kooyong and Dunkley less likely chances”.
• James Dowling of The Australian reports that Labor in New South Wales will not field candidates in the October 19 New South Wales state by-elections for Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater, respectively being vacated by Liberal members Dominic Perrottet, Matt Kean and Rory Amon.
As has its always been, what is this pointless blather?
Gets no more than a 15 second mention on all news bulletins every year on Saturday night beforehand, CLOWN 😡
Awaiting Morgan too.
Gosh, this used to be at 5PM Monday’s on the dot.
Now it has become excruciating.
Heads need to roll. WB – can you sort this out please
davo – we’ve just been talking about clowns on the QLD blog.
‘Themunz says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 5:48 pm
Boerwarsays:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 5:06 pm
Anyone who wants to get onto a speculative stock should dive into Russian Government bonds.
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I have a very elaborate bond document from Czarist Russia. A bit of a collectors item.
Back in the 1960’s they were listed (pennies!) but buyers received the original document.’
======================
Wasn’t there some sort of deal that the Commies could enter the international trading community but first they had to pay those Tsarist bonds out at face value?
How can William sort Morgan and their times out FFS?
WB can create magic when he needs to Steve. He’s been doing it for decades
Morgan used to drop around 5PM every Monday, unless there is a public holiday in Melb, then it comes out on Tues.
If you’re not interested in polls steve, then find something else to do, “FFS”.
Gosh, re-booting the Morgan link to check for an update. I could almost throw a netball at Michelle Levines head.
Nadia88
Its such a stupid statement FFS.
Back to back surpluses are a good outcome for this government politically no matter how achieved.
With a likely rate cut in December, the economic climate is beginning to align for Albanese and Chalmers.
Whilst we’re (probably just me) waiting for this latest poll, some up coming polls…
* This week – nothing.
* Hopefully later this week – Redbridge. Kos Samaras has been teasing on his X feed, and Redbridge are due, but nothing as yet. Usually drops via Melbourne’s Herald Sun.
* Sunday (around 6PM Southern time) – We should have the latest Resolve Strategic Poll (via the SMH/Age).
* Monday (next week) – another Morgan
* Tues – Essential report.
* Fri 11-Oct – YouGov
* Sun 13-Oct – Newspoll
Remember when all the Australian media used to tell Costello what a good little boy he was for returning surpluses?
Remember when the LNP used to tell the public that they were the best economic managers?
Kos Samaras talking up the prospects of Jacinta Allen in Vic, despite his polling firm recently giving the LNP a primary of 41% off a > 1500 sample.
Link: https://x.com/KosSamaras/status/1840667602705613076?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Steve – actually not too sure what you are going on about. I was responding to your earlier post but shall leave you be this evening.
Luigi Smith @ #417 Monday, September 30th, 2024 – 6:38 pm
Remembering back to….this morning? Last night? Last weekend?
Seriously though, it’s laughable and always has been. I’ve been saying since the Howard years that these guys wouldn’t know how to manage the economy if it was relayed to them slowly and phonetically.
At the end of the day it takes the ALP to show the kids how it’s done in actuality. Where Labor falls down, however, is in the messaging and ultimate sell to voters. On that front we can learn from our conservative (the few remaining ones there are) compatriots.
nadia88:
How is Labor looking in Qld? All I see on social media are TikTok videos from Steven Miles practically giving stuff away which says to me they’re desperate and staring down the bottom of an electoral landslide.
Probably one of Labor’s biggest mistakes in the 20th century was selling off and shutting down all the newspapers and other media outlets it used to own.
Now all we have left is a hostile neo-liberal/reactionary media constantly hammering in the narrative that Labor is shit no matter what it does and it’s pretty much powerless to counter this.
A problem for Albanese and Labor is that they try to please anyone and everyone, and usually end up pleasing no one. Whereas Dutton and his L/NP have a narrow, ideologically driven focus of only appealing to “the base” but hoping others will jump on for the ride due to displeasure with Albanese and Labor.
Prospects of the Greens in Qld too nadia.
That link on the qld blog had the Greens sitting at 20% in the inner city. These are good figures for the greens yes/no?
Arkysays:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 5:39 pm
““Birth is not an illness. Yet the vast majority of women and birthing people currently have no choice but to give birth inside a hospital,” Ms Clay said”
” for those who want to birth in a home-like environment with a known midwife, Canberrans simply need more choice.”
_______________________________
There was always the side of the Barton Highway because the Yass Valley Hospital didn’t have a maternity ward. I loved Scotty’s solution to this problem – $150 Million to upgrade the highway…
https://womensagenda.com.au/latest/the-pms-solution-for-women-giving-birth-on-the-side-of-the-road-upgrade-the-highway/
Labor recently gave $4.7 million promised to restore maternity services at Yass District Hospital over 2023 to 2024.
https://www.yassvalleytimes.com.au/general-news/federal-budget-promises-4-7-million-for-maternity-at-yass-hospital/
Who exactly are the better economic and personal managers for the people of Australia?
You’ve got to think that SfM did leave the goals wide open with this one….
Latest Roy Morgan (finally):
* ALP 30% (down 2)
* LNP 38% (up 0.5)
* GRN 13.5% (up 1)
* Pauline 4.5% (down 0.5)
* Others 14% (down 1)
Sample: 1668
Poll Period: Sep 23-29
Their 2PP 51-49 LNP
Last Election 2PP 51.5-48.5 ALP
Work this poll out everyone!
Link: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/federal-election-too-close-to-call-with-coalition-51-now-marginally-ahead-of-the-alp-49
I didn’t realise it was illegal to hoist the hezbollah flag. Are proscribed outfits named somewhere or is it a “ terrorist catch all” ?
Confessions says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 6:54 pm
nadia88:
How is Labor looking in Qld? …
===========================
Not good for Labor Fess. There have been two recent statewide polls (Freshwater & Newspoll) which are catastrophic. I reference more the ghastly swings against Labor in the by-elections earlier this year. These are Penrith style 2010 swings.
WB/AG or KB will probably call the QLD election around 7.30pm QLD time (8.30pm for the day light savers).
My guess is that the LNP will top 60 seats, Labor will get between 12-18 seats, and the rest will be Katter, Pauline & the Greens.
Alpha Zero, one of the chief campaigners for the Yass Maternity Hospital is an interesting amalgam of motivations, on the one hand a Shire Councilor, a strong campaigner for issues relating to the local public schools and yet strongly campaigned to have a book removed from the local library on the basis of its sexual advice for adolescents, yet her daughter had a child not long after coming out as gender non-specific. Go figure!
‘dave says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 7:17 pm
I didn’t realise it was illegal to hoist the hezbollah flag. Are proscribed outfits named somewhere or is it a “ terrorist catch all” ?’
====================
‘Proscribed’ in the UK. ‘Listed’ in Australia.
Under ‘Hizballah’
https://www.nationalsecurity.gov.au/what-australia-is-doing/terrorist-organisations/listed-terrorist-organisations
Negative gearing all over the news last week Morgan did not pick up on that in its summary the poll did though.
@nadia88 at 7:11pm
Probably a same-same result within the margin of error of the state of politics at the moment. My theory is that federal Labor is deciding to not do anything controversial for the next month until Queensland voters finish their tantrum and get the LNP government they’re currently screaming for so they can at least try to keep their seat count above 20, (and also the ACT election to give their Territory government the best chance of keeping the ACT Liberal circus out of power).
ACT elections.
I heard a rumour that one of the prime movers in the Progressives in the 2020 election has rebranded as ‘Independent’ in this election. This may be the third go with the same person being involved in something else in the election prior to the ‘Progressives’. Do I have a name? No.
Boerwar @ #427 Monday, September 30th, 2024 – 7:22 pm
That would probably be Robert Knight, who ran in 2020 as a Progressives candidate for Murrumbidgee, and is now running as an Independents for Canberra candidate for that same seat.
Thanks BW.
As I said during the nazi symbol debate, I like to know who and where they are.
Personally, I feel I’m against banning this type of thing but it seems I’m in the minority on this one.
Roy Morgan is so variable week to week, worth watching its general trend but I don’t make much of individual poll results from them. I don’t know why they try to frame their results as attributable to events of the week when it’s just as likely to be poll noise.
All that said it’s pointing to about 50-50 as other pollsters are.
nadia88:
Yikes. No wonder federal ALP appears to be treading water at present.
Vlad says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 7:07 pm
Prospects of the Greens in Qld too nadia.
That link on the qld blog had the Greens sitting at 20% in the inner city. These are good figures for the greens yes/no?
======================================
Probably more for the QLD blog Vlad, but yes they are good figures for the Greens, but remember their vote is concentrated in the inner city of Brisbane (actually the inner southern and inner western suburbs).
So realistically it means their primary vote is higher, in their target seats, hence the confidence expressed by the senior greens in state and Fed parliament.
They’ll probably jag a few more seats in Brisbane – so I reckon McConnel (held by Minister Grace), and Cooper, will both move to the Greens. Sth Brisbane (ex Jackie Trad’s seat) will probably be held by the Greens on primaries alone, and Maiwar will be retained by the Greens too.
Please note though, the Greens don’t rate in either regional QLD (think of Bob Brown’s convoy), outer suburban Brisbane nor the Sunny or Gold Coast. The Sunny and Goldie are LNP turf and the LNP already have a python grip on those seats (11 out of 12 in the Goldie) and (4 out of 6 in the Sunshine Coast). The LNP will clean sweep the Goldie (ie pick up 1 seat), and will probably clean sweep the Sunny. Maybe the indie will hang on, but she’s no Green!
But yes Vlad, inner city Brisbane is a different story. If you watch the election unfold, you’ll see the state seats fall Green along the lines of the 2022 Federal Election.
“Albanese dances around the Negative Gearing and CGT concessions lever” -Swollen Pickles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPqmeWbbFZs
Good arguments from the Melbourne Storm counsel.
NAS definitely shouldn’t be suspended.
Morgan wow !
Thanks nadia. You’re a brutal on analysis, but fair…and thorough.
True.
Daniel Andrews is probably the only leader who has comprehensively defeated the hostile media. That’s why they obsessively hate him so much.
I put Nadias dummy spit into an algebraic formula after Morgan was late. ANSWER: Get a life outside of election polling, especially junk polling like Morgan. Obviously Rexy boy didn’t get the memo either.
Morgan wow!?! It’s virtually the same as the last one!
I think the federal government is doing a reasonably good job with the hand its been dealt.
No ministerial scandals, stable government, sensible policy proposals, realistic administrative changes. You can’t expect much more from a federal government.
Where it has fallen down is selling its achievements. The govt can do better on this front and I expect it to do so.
I didn’t realise that the purpose of fiscal policy is to appease economic knowledge-deficient journalists and commentators. Here I was thinking it was supposed to serve the people’s interests by facilitating non-inflationary full employment – real full employment, not the made up NAIRU – combined with the highest quality public services and infrastructure that the real resources of the nation will permit. Centrists are all about perception management, bowing to journalists’ biases, and avoiding talking directly with voters. It doesn’t matter what journalists think if the VOTERS like you because you are meeting their needs and they see you fighting for them. There are no voters who are going to switch to Labor because Labor are running fiscal surpluses. Whereas if Labor increased all income support payments to $610 a week – something that can be done immediately without inflationary consequences because there’s a lot of spare capacity – that would help a lot of people and help Labor at the next election. The number of people who are directly or indirectly affected by the income support system is large. In addition, there’s a great number of voters who would be vicariously impressed even though it doesn’t affect their individual circumstances.
Another issue that huge numbers of voters care about is childcare. Childcare makes a crucial contribution to child development, which makes it an educational intervention. Therefore the quality needs to be consistently high and it needs to be a right. Funding the states and territories to integrate childcare into the public education systems is the best way of doing this. Labor could have started that process this term. It would be immensely popular.
People who reflexively cite neoliberal economics and who think they should be taken seriously on macroeconomic topics are like Flat Earthers who believe they’ve got a contribution that rivals that of geophysicists. It’s utterly delusional.
The statements that a result is “same-same” because it is within the margin of error are incorrect. The margin of error is generally about +/-3%. A full 6% range. So, if you are saying same-same as above, you are saying 53-47 result is the same as a 47-53. Each result has to looked at in its own context but they aren’t same-same because of the margin of error. They are same-same because they are very close to other results. It is reasonable to say that the electoral result would be uncertain because the outcomes within the margin of error could go either way.
Nicholas
Voters need to take a breath and remind themselves that Govt’s job is to ensure the well-being of ALL its constituents, leaving no-one to live in poverty and danger.
It’s been a good day for federal Labor. A budget surplus will always be a tick as opposed to budget deficits for economic management.
Labor might be on a roll on the back of the ACCC taking action on Woolworths and Coles.
An interest rate cut or two before the election and Albo is back in business.
If Albo showed ticker and 1) banned gambling advertising and 2) took action on insurance costs – he’d have a real shot of winning two in a row!
Just to edit, in fact, Albo would win two in a row.
Confessions @ #440 Monday, September 30th, 2024 – 7:56 pm
Yeah, I agree with that. Maybe taking on some of the media advisors that brought Victorian Labor through to triumph at the 2022 state election could bring in results?
The media sprayed Victorian Labor with shit constantly since they were elected in 2014 and they’ve won 2 further elections since then. Even in the first term there were bad moments, especially with the whole Fire Brigade mess that came to a head in 2016.
Nick
Of course it would make sense for childcare to be integrated with the public school system, which is why it will never happen.
Something something choice, something something market, so we’ll end up with another voucher system shitshow like the NDIS then end up being outraged at dodgy providers gaming the system, or workers being treated poorly, or failings in the care provided
Nicholas says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 7:57 pm
Your Snake Oil has as much currency here as it does in the real world.
Kirsdarke says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 8:03 pm
The Victorian ALP are blessed with a shit show of a Liberal Party. That’s why they won.
Spoken like a rusted-on Liberal, FUBAR.
Though I could say the same as you about the federal Labor government. 😉
kirsdarke:
The federal government went into a funk after the Voice failed. It hit personal for me, but nevertheless they should be congratulated for bringing the vote in the first place and campaigning for it. No other political party openly campaigned in favour of the Voice. It was essentially left to Labor and the Teals to carry the Yes case.
Other than that the government hasn’t really made the case for the suite of economic policies it has announced. Eg what is happening with the 15% childcare workers pay rise? This has disappeared into a vortex. The tax cuts the same. I’m not asking for Albo to do a Scomo and launch a branded collateral package of ‘back in black’, but still. Where’s the message?
‘Kirsdarke says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 7:27 pm
Boerwar @ #427 Monday, September 30th, 2024 – 7:22 pm
ACT elections.
I heard a rumour that one of the prime movers in the Progressives in the 2020 election has rebranded as ‘Independent’ in this election. This may be the third go with the same person being involved in something else in the election prior to the ‘Progressives’. Do I have a name? No.
That would probably be Robert Knight, who ran in 2020 as a Progressives candidate for Murrumbidgee, and is now running as an Independents for Canberra candidate for that same seat.’
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Thanks. The Progressives picked up something like 5,000 votes in the 2020 election. Where they end this election might matter when it comes to fifth seats.