It’s been a while since I last did an update of preselection and related federal election news, in which time the following has accumulated:
• Labor’s national executive anointed candidates a fortnight ago for three usually safe Labor seats in Melbourne whose incumbents will retire at the election. In Bill Shorten’s seat of Maribyrnong, Labor’s candidate will be Jo Briskey, national co-ordinator of the Left faction United Workers Union. Much has been made of the fact that Briskey moved to Melbourne in 2019 after an unsuccessful run for the Brisbane seat of Bonner, and has a backer in Queensland Left heavyweight Gary Bullock.
• The candidate in Brendan O’Connor’s seat of Gorton will be Alice Jordan-Baird, a water policy expert. Earlier reports indicated the preselection was developing into a contest between rival Right faction power bases, with Jordan-Baird the favourite of that associated with Richard Marles and the Transport Workers Union, while the Bill Shorten/Australian Workers Union axis favoured Brimbank mayor Ranka Rasic. State minister Natalie Hutchins, a Shorten ally who was earlier mentioned as a potential contender in Maribyrnong, said Jordan-Baird lacked a connection with the area and was chosen over an “experienced local” in Rasic.
• Basem Abdo, an adviser to outgoing member Maria Vamvakinou and fellow member of the Socialist Left, has been confirmed as Labor’s candidate for Calwell. Earlier reports indicated resistance among local party branches to a perceived factional fait accompli, reflecting general discontent around the fact that the party’s national executive has again taken over the Victorian preselection process.
• The Liberals have preselected Tom Venning, a Barunga Grains farming manager who formerly worked for the NAB and Deloitte, as their candidate for the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated at the election with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey. Venning’s uncle, Ivan Venning, was a veteran state member of parliament. Other contenders included Suzanne Waters, a former United Australia Party candidate described by InDaily as “a regional paramedic who reportedly quit her job with SA Health over its COVID vaccination mandate”, who was endorsed by arch-conservative Senator Alex Antic. Also in the field were Kimba mayor Dean Johnson, Whyalla police officer Matt Sampson, and Rikki Lambert, chief-of-staff to ex-Family First Senator Bob Day.
• The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party has preselected Lisa Bayliss, police officer and senior vice-president of the Northern Territory Police Association, as its candidate for the Darwin seat of Solomon, held for Labor by Luke Gosling on a margin of 9.4%. Camden Smith of the Northern Territory News reports the CLP preselection for the other Northern Territory seat of Lingiari, which Labor came close to losing against the trend in 2022, “has been deferred and will be considered by the party’s management committee in coming weeks”.
• There was a brief flurry of early election talk last week after Anthony Albanese suggested a double dissolution election could result if the Coalition and the Greens persisted in blocking the government’s housing bill. The notion is complicated by the fact that a double dissolution cannot take place in the last six months before the term of parliament expires, the relevant date being January 25. To create a trigger, the government would need to follow a rejection of the bill this week with another attempt after a delay of more than three months, which would require that parliament be recalled in late December or January.
• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Victorian Liberal sources saying their polling has them “in front or neck-and-neck in Aston, Chisholm, McEwen and Goldstein, with Kooyong and Dunkley less likely chances”.
• James Dowling of The Australian reports that Labor in New South Wales will not field candidates in the October 19 New South Wales state by-elections for Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater, respectively being vacated by Liberal members Dominic Perrottet, Matt Kean and Rory Amon.
You know what shits me most about Labor’s double surplus? No merchandising.
The claims that the Treasurer has made that the surplus came off the back of controlling spending is spin.
Exactly where are the cuts to spending? There aren’t any because they didn’t plan the cuts. Strange they are not spruiking where they made the cuts.
The likely cause is conservative estimates of revenues from items like Personal Income Tax, Company Tax, Iron Ore, Gas and coal royalties and under forecast expenditure in non-discretionary expenditures such as Unemployment Benefits which have been lower than forecast due to lower than forecast Unemployment.
I think it is good that they are delivering surpluses but they really are gilding the lily about them.
Arkysays:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 3:30 pm
There’s a massive difference between a quota to be met across a large company and women automatically getting specific jobs.
And if the quota isn’t being met naturally, it’s presumably because up to that point men have been advantaged, as with corporate boards (one of most likely areas to be targeted with quotas) where there’s no good reason for them being male dominated except perpetuating sexism and old boys’ networks.
There’s no particularly good reason for men to heavily outnumber women in Parliament. Labor has corrected this over time with quotas. The Coalition which has resisted quotas continues to struggle, because wouldn’t you know, the men in charge keep favouring men.
If all you see in quotas is men being disadvantaged, but you can’t see women being disadvantaged without them, that’s your lookout.
You want disability quotas? It’s a harder thing to do because we’re not talking about literally half the population and disabilities vary so widely, and just look at your own incredibly hostile reaction to a quota that involves literally half the population.
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Facepalm 🙂
You misread my comments because there is no hostility to the use of gender quotas but if the employer has a gender quota but no target for disability employment then that employer will focus on filling its gender quota. The disability royal commission and many disability advocates are calling for the introduction of a quota because they work.
A-E
Simply not a problem. The Greens Funny Money Peeps are going to collect half a trillion by increasing company tax rates to the highest in the world.
All good.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 3:24 pm
Well, you’re obviously right. There’s not going to be any money for the AUKUS boats once the current forecast is completed. What do you think they’ll do with the boats? Pull them out of the water and put them in public parks?
Of course, the economy and government budgets are not going to grow at all between now and then and no priorities can ever be changed.
Strange that both the LNP and the ALP can’t see the problems as clearly as you.
Badthinker says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 2:59 pm
What do you mean 24 Hour RBT? Don’t they do that in Queensland?
I was RBT’d last Friday at Wilare on my way to Broome at 11.30 am and in the past have blown at 7 am in the morning on the way to work.
You’ve blown at 7 am? Damn that’s eager
“Strange that both the LNP and the ALP can’t see the problems as clearly as you.”
_______
These things have been pointed out time and again by independent experts.
What is terrifying is that the Canberra political establishment is so determined to fudge the figures to mislead the public. What is worse is that a compliant MSM is seemingly willing to go along with the deception.
Of course, my numbers above a based on ‘best case’ scenarios – so I’m being exceedingly generous to the Government’s figures. As has been pointed out above bu others – the track record in defence procurement – especially in projects involving BAE has been shockingly bad.
The Future Frigates program was originally invisaged as a $6billion replacement program for the eight ANZAC class frigates. The specifications for the program changed unannounced and – boom – it became a $35 billion program for nine ships when announced in 2018; which had blown out to $47 billion in 2023, and is still over 40 billion but for only 6 Hunters Class ships now; and that’s before the first steel was cut last months. FFS!
Edited to respond to this:
“Well, you’re obviously right. There’s not going to be any money for the AUKUS boats once the current forecast is completed. ”
_____
There will be money for it, I’m sure; by Marles in particular is being dishonest going around saying that the $368 billion figure is an incls cost that includes a contingency estimate to cover any costs blow outs.
To cover the build of the last three boats, the 33 years of sustainment costs and disposal costs will cost at least as much again as the costs for the first 30 years of the program; plus inflation. Marles isn’t being honest about that.
MB
You have previously advised us that your son is disabled and I admire your doing advocacy.
In some cases people with a disability have superior skills as a result of working through that disability.
We sometimes act as ‘customers’ in a coffee shop.
It is basically a work training shop set up to provide disabled teenagers with work skills.
I have also been, in the past, an employer who sometimes worked on very thin margins.
For some people with a disability the physical workplace can be configured and work practices configured to enable a person with a disability to compete on even terms.
IMO providing direct government assistance to offset the additional setting up expenditures would work.
But for some that is simply not possible.
It is not really the worker’s fault or the bosses’ fault. The productivity is simply not there to keep the business profitable.
It seems to me that setting quotas that might send firms broke is counter productive.
It seems to me that subsidies that make up any differences in productivity might be far more effective.
Mexicanbeemer:”Excellent idea but there’s a problem we don’t want them all in work because of a little thing called inflation. By keeping a low dole works against them getting a job because recruiters don’t like desperate jobseekers so having them hungry won’t get them a job any faster and it stops the unemployed from upskilling and networking but something that does work is quotas.
Bullshit, bullshit, bullshit.
What do you think the PALM workers aren’t paid?
Recruiters, will hire anyone who wants to work and can do the job. Not many skills required as the Vanuatu and Timor Leste workers are not highly educated yet they are out there doing shit jobs that dole bludgers think is beneath them. They are motivated to work because they know that they get real wages which are, far more than sitting around their island homes without a dole.
What is wrong with upskilling and networking while working. That is how my generation got a skilled. With the availability of on-line courses, it is even easier to get the skills you want.
Being on the dole doesn’t provide you with the sort of networking to get ahead. You might network with similar minded people and help you get the cheapest dope, but that is not the sort of networking you are talking about.
Trouble is, people think the only solution to living in poverty on the dole is to raise the dole. It ain’t, stop whinging and go out and get a job. They are there and they pay more than the dole.
What was it that Robin Hood told the coal mine workers?
The best job for a miner is another mining job. (Sick Greens joke, eh? The Greens never saw a mine that they did not hate.)
Labor has taken one million people off the dole.
Labor is lifting real wages.
Labor is closing the gender pay gap.
Labor has empowered workers against the bosses with HR reform.
It must be doing SOMETHING right!
https://theshovel.com.au/2024/09/30/please-sponsor-a-disadvantaged-millionaire-today/, TDJTs downunder …
I see that the ruling establishment and their MSM have targeted Australia’s Lebanese community for some treatment.
Dutton targeted the whole community with his usual grace, charm and inclusivity by kicking down at minorities. He then apologized to an anonymous Lebanese community leader. Sicko.
Bandt must be shitting bricks that no Greens are going to get sprung waving Heshbollah flags and the like.
Guardian: Confidence that the Reserve Bank may soon be cutting interest rates seems to be spreading (even if RBA governor Michele Bullock likes to downplay hopes lest they fan a pickup in inflation).
NAB, one of the big four banks, today brought forward the timing when they think the central bank will begin easing monetary policy to February. (They had been the most pessimistic, reckoning the RBA would wait until May. NAB is now in line with ANZ and Westpac while the upbeat economists at CBA have pencilled in December – just two RBA meets away.)
It is not that the Greens need to be personally holding a flag. If they are in group replete with many Heshbollah flags and don’t dissociate themselves from that situation by walking out, that should be enough for Bandt to expel those Greens from his Party.
FUBAR revisionism (again? anyone keeping a tally?), how quickly he forgets the Chalmers/Gallagher razor gang.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/budget-razor-gang-begins-next-stage-of-billion-dollar-audit-gallagher-20221028-p5bttg.html
The Greens have upped the ante by promising a free standing birth centre.
Why it has to be free standing is not quite clear unless we are talking about a culture war attempt at symbolic purity.
So there you have it.
A convention centre, a stadium or a free standing birth center.
The latter will feature midwives but the real question, as it might have been posed by van Badham in a slightly related diatribe, ‘Is this a backdoor truk by the Patriarchy?’
Liberal v Liberal (Vic Div).
You can’t keep a good Kroger down:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/sep/30/moira-deeming-defamation-trial-john-pesutto-michael-kroger-ntwnfb
Daylight saving kicks in this Sunday 3 hours time difference between east and West.
Morgan Poll watch be very very interesting this one aka neg gearing all over news etc.
FUBARsays:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 3:47 pm
…
What do you mean 24 Hour RBT? Don’t they do that in Queensland?
This is what i’m saying:
Anna Bligh for the last couple of years of her term, and Palaszczuk almost from the get go, have removed police from areas where it’s pointless operationally and counter productive politically, to have them.
That’s all the Inner Suburbs and Middle Suburbs of Brisbane, the Goldy and the Sunny Coast.
Wondered why Labor has a lock on Brisbane?
Now you know.
There’ll still be a noticeable police presence in Waterford
, Woodridge
and Inala
because those are Houso areas where deadshits are dropped off.
Also expect noticeable police presece in Rocky
, Townsville, Cairns, Mackay and Gladstone
It took Labor Governments to figure that out, and people will get a shock when all of a sudden they’re getting the same treatment someone living in Inala is used to.
You don’t expect there to be any lessons learnt? No savings from previously invested capital in construction and sustainment infrastructure? No corporate knowledge?
Boerwar says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 4:25 pm
No illegal drug injecting centre?
Ahhhh AFR just reporting income tax collections as a share of wages are the highest for 25 years so there’s your surplus!
I urge you all to tour while you still can.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/sep/09/almost-68-of-australias-tourism-sites-at-major-risk-if-climate-crisis-continues-report-says
‘FUBAR says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 4:44 pm
Boerwar says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 4:25 pm
No illegal drug injecting centre?’
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The ACT has, what seems to me, an effective methadone service. It has effective pill testing. Neither have come up during the campaign so we could consider those as having a social licence. There does not seem to be a push for a drug injecting centre. Why? Are you interested?
Rewi says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 4:16 pm
Thanks for the link:
“The government flirted with changing the $254 billion stage three tax cuts in the lead-up to the budget, but decided it would be too politically risky to break an election promise.
Asked whether this meant the government wouldn’t revisit the tax cuts at some stage, Gallagher conceded that “promises matter in politics” but she also thought “being upfront and honest with people about what you know and the challenges that are coming is important”.”
The boat killers are in hand.
We will not be able to afford them.
There are four drivers:
The first is climate change.
The second is disappearing markets as China, Japan and South Korea have birth rates approach 1. Halving your population in a generation will have massive demand consequences.
The third is disappearing market as China moves away from construction to something else that does not require massive amounts of iron ore and coal.
The fourth is renewables.
Two thirds of our exports are at severe risk.
The Lebanese have accepted Hezbollah as a fundamental part of their Nation. Their support for them is on full display.
‘FUBAR says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 4:55 pm
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 4:05 pm
I see that the ruling establishment and their MSM have targeted Australia’s Lebanese community for some treatment.
The Lebanese have accepted Hezbollah as a fundamental part of their Nation.’
….’
===================
Bwahahaha. Maybe Wong should send you over as a peace deal maker? It would be interesting to see how long you were to last.
The Islamophobia envoy has been appointed.
So if, as claimed, that government revenue is way up due to higher taxes, and spending is way up due to more social services spending, what is the problem the “progressive” media is trying to raise?
I thought the “MMT” practitioners would be over the moon at this set of circumstances? A tight budget to bring down inflation while focusing on essentials.
‘Bizzcan says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 5:02 pm
So if, as claimed, that government revenue is way up due to higher taxes, and spending is way up due to more social services spending, what is the problem the “progressive” media is trying to raise?
I thought the “MMT” practitioners would be over the moon at this set of circumstances? A tight budget to bring down inflation while focusing on essentials.’
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You seem to be missing the point. Votes.
Anyone who wants to get onto a speculative stock should dive into Russian Government bonds.
19%!
If the demented glow-in-the-dark radioactive potato did this you’d be praising him from the rooftops, hypocrite 😡
Boewar: Nigeria 27%, Argentina 40% and Venezuela 59%!
Big Nelson A-S will surely get off the ridiculous charge and suspension from the NRL judiciary.
Here I was thinking the AFL was a joke of an organisation…
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 5:12 pm
Boewar: Nigeria 27%, Argentina 40% and Venezuela 59%!’
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haha. Spoiled for choice.
Afghanistan is seeing prices fall by about 7% pa. if anyone wants more bang for buck on their cost of living:
https://tradingeconomics.com/
“It is not that the Greens need to be personally holding a flag. If they are in group replete with many Heshbollah flags and don’t dissociate themselves from that situation by walking out, that should be enough for Bandt to expel those Greens from his Party. ”
Jenny Leong didn’t get punished at all for her racist Jewish octopus tentacles controlling the world guff, so I am not holding my breath for Bandt to take action against the inevitable Greens who chant for Hezbollah.
I am sure that Bandt would personally intervene to expel any and all Greens members who publicly support an organization responsible for killing 83 french peace keepers in a terrorist attack.
““Birth is not an illness. Yet the vast majority of women and birthing people currently have no choice but to give birth inside a hospital,” Ms Clay said”
” for those who want to birth in a home-like environment with a known midwife, Canberrans simply need more choice.”
Ugh.
Births mostly taking place in hospitals which are equipped to handle it when shit goes sideways is one of the great infant mortality improvements of our age, and I have little time for people who sell people on fantasies about home births and midwives (an attitude I picked up from my wife).
The implication that giving birth in a hospital is treating childbirth like an illness is just irritatingly enraging.
Pied piper says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 4:46 pm
Ahhhh AFR just reporting income tax collections as a share of wages are the highest for 25 years so there’s your surplus!
________________________
So a good point here to remind all:
– the announcement today is for the financial year ending 30 June 2024. For the financial year we are currently in, the deficit is expected to be around $30 billion.
– tax to income peaked back in September last year and has been down since then. All moot because it is all before the revised s3 tax cuts.
-Taxes were higher back in mid-2000, though as a year sum yes it is at a 60 year high (yes, higher than golden boy Whitlam).
-And reminding that spending is also at a 60-year high share of the economy.
So pretty much something for all political persuasions to spin and complain about!
Arky says:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 5:39 pm
Completely agree.
We have two children.
In the first labour my wife had to go immediately into an operating theatre for an hour to stop a haemorrhage.
In the second labour our son had to
Immediately go into Neonatal ICU.
Neither outcome was expected.
Boerwarsays:
Monday, September 30, 2024 at 5:06 pm
Anyone who wants to get onto a speculative stock should dive into Russian Government bonds.
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I have a very elaborate bond document from Czarist Russia. A bit of a collectors item.
Back in the 1960’s they were listed (pennies!) but buyers received the original document.
In an inflation crisis fed labor and states spending have been driving inflation and stopping reductions to interest rates.
Own labor goal right there along with bringing in 1.1 million people.
Labor is in power not libs.They are suffering in polling libs are doing well.
Cmon Morgan poll neg gearing response?
Nothing as good as a bit of bracket creep to fund an ALP Treasurer’s surplus
Tsarist.
Antony’s Queensland Election preview updated: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2024/guide/preview