Weekend miscellany: federal preselections and double dissolution chatter (open thread)

Federal election candidates lining up on both sides of the aisle, reporting on Liberal internal polling, and Labor to site out looming state by-elections in New South Wales.

It’s been a while since I last did an update of preselection and related federal election news, in which time the following has accumulated:

• Labor’s national executive anointed candidates a fortnight ago for three usually safe Labor seats in Melbourne whose incumbents will retire at the election. In Bill Shorten’s seat of Maribyrnong, Labor’s candidate will be Jo Briskey, national co-ordinator of the Left faction United Workers Union. Much has been made of the fact that Briskey moved to Melbourne in 2019 after an unsuccessful run for the Brisbane seat of Bonner, and has a backer in Queensland Left heavyweight Gary Bullock.

• The candidate in Brendan O’Connor’s seat of Gorton will be Alice Jordan-Baird, a water policy expert. Earlier reports indicated the preselection was developing into a contest between rival Right faction power bases, with Jordan-Baird the favourite of that associated with Richard Marles and the Transport Workers Union, while the Bill Shorten/Australian Workers Union axis favoured Brimbank mayor Ranka Rasic. State minister Natalie Hutchins, a Shorten ally who was earlier mentioned as a potential contender in Maribyrnong, said Jordan-Baird lacked a connection with the area and was chosen over an “experienced local” in Rasic.

• Basem Abdo, an adviser to outgoing member Maria Vamvakinou and fellow member of the Socialist Left, has been confirmed as Labor’s candidate for Calwell. Earlier reports indicated resistance among local party branches to a perceived factional fait accompli, reflecting general discontent around the fact that the party’s national executive has again taken over the Victorian preselection process.

• The Liberals have preselected Tom Venning, a Barunga Grains farming manager who formerly worked for the NAB and Deloitte, as their candidate for the regional South Australian seat of Grey, which will be vacated at the election with the retirement of Rowan Ramsey. Venning’s uncle, Ivan Venning, was a veteran state member of parliament. Other contenders included Suzanne Waters, a former United Australia Party candidate described by InDaily as “a regional paramedic who reportedly quit her job with SA Health over its COVID vaccination mandate”, who was endorsed by arch-conservative Senator Alex Antic. Also in the field were Kimba mayor Dean Johnson, Whyalla police officer Matt Sampson, and Rikki Lambert, chief-of-staff to ex-Family First Senator Bob Day.

• The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party has preselected Lisa Bayliss, police officer and senior vice-president of the Northern Territory Police Association, as its candidate for the Darwin seat of Solomon, held for Labor by Luke Gosling on a margin of 9.4%. Camden Smith of the Northern Territory News reports the CLP preselection for the other Northern Territory seat of Lingiari, which Labor came close to losing against the trend in 2022, “has been deferred and will be considered by the party’s management committee in coming weeks”.

• There was a brief flurry of early election talk last week after Anthony Albanese suggested a double dissolution election could result if the Coalition and the Greens persisted in blocking the government’s housing bill. The notion is complicated by the fact that a double dissolution cannot take place in the last six months before the term of parliament expires, the relevant date being January 25. To create a trigger, the government would need to follow a rejection of the bill this week with another attempt after a delay of more than three months, which would require that parliament be recalled in late December or January.

Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Victorian Liberal sources saying their polling has them “in front or neck-and-neck in Aston, Chisholm, McEwen and Goldstein, with Kooyong and Dunkley less likely chances”.

James Dowling of The Australian reports that Labor in New South Wales will not field candidates in the October 19 New South Wales state by-elections for Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater, respectively being vacated by Liberal members Dominic Perrottet, Matt Kean and Rory Amon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

487 thoughts on “Weekend miscellany: federal preselections and double dissolution chatter (open thread)”

Comments Page 7 of 10
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  1. “What was disabled unemployment under the LNP?”

    Wouldnt have been any better thats for sure. The NDIS would never have been set up either. Libs dont believe in social policy.

  2. Boerwarsays:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 1:42 pm
    M
    Is there a gender quota for women’s percentage employment?
    ————————-
    Yes governments are using gender quotas to help close the gender pay gap.

  3. Mexicanbeemer @ #298 Monday, September 30th, 2024 – 1:34 pm

    Boerwar
    That Labor has made significant strides with closing the gender pay gap in just two years.
    —————————-
    Yep can do a gender quota for women but can’t do a quota for the disabled.

    Womens unemployment 4%
    Disabled unemployment 7%

    Are you STILL going on about that number like it means something!?! Compared with the Able Bodied unemployment number the number for the Disabled is now as low as it has been in the recent past. For example, take these numbers as just one data set from the Coalition years:

    Unemployment and severity of disability
    In 2018, 13% of people aged 15–64 with severe or profound disability were unemployed compared with 9.9% of people with other disability status.

    Unemployment among young people
    In 2018, people aged 15–24 with disability were more than twice as likely to be unemployed (25%) as those aged 25–64 (7.9%).

    Unemployment rate
    In 2018, people aged 15–64 with disability were twice as likely to be unemployed (10%) as those without disability (4.6%).

    https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/disability/people-with-disability-in-australia/contents/employment/unemployment

    Sure, in an ideal world we would all like the Disabled Unemployment Rate to be the same as the Able Bodied Unemployment Rate, but guess what? In no world is that ever going to be the case because some Disabled people are simply too Disabled to be employable. S0, 7% is actually a very good number.

    Why can’t you acknowledge ANY of that, Mexicanbeemer? It’s just reality.

  4. Luigi Smithsays:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 1:41 pm
    What was disabled unemployment under the LNP?
    —————–
    Labor had a royal commission tell it to set targets for disabled employment but all it’s done is accept in principal but the same government has quotas for women but disabled unemployment was 7.5% in 22 and that’s the most recent data.

  5. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 1:51 pm
    Mexicanbeemer @ #298 Monday, September 30th, 2024 – 1:34 pm

    Boerwar
    That Labor has made significant strides with closing the gender pay gap in just two years.
    —————————-
    Yep can do a gender quota for women but can’t do a quota for the disabled.

    Womens unemployment 4%
    Disabled unemployment 7%

    Are you STILL going on about that number like it means something!?! Compared with the Able Bodied unemployment number the number for the Disabled is now as low as it has been in the recent past. For example, take these numbers as just one data set from the Coalition years:

    Sure, in an ideal world we would all like the Disabled Unemployment Rate to be the same as the Able Bodied Unemployment Rate, but guess what? In no world is that ever going to be the case because some Disabled people are simply too Disabled to be employable. S0, 7% is actually a very good number.

    Why can’t you acknowledge ANY of that, Mexicanbeemer? It’s just reality.
    ———————————–
    Try the 2022 data.

    Yep still on about it and if labor does nothing it will be put last.

    Your ableism is disgusting because the disabled that can’t work are not counted in the 7%. Disabled employment is counted the same as the unemployment data is.

    Under your party’s policies if your son applied for a job and the only other candidate is a woman that woman will get the job.

  6. the bore climbs out from under his bridge to defend leaving the unemployed in abject poverty, let multinationals avoid paying taxes, continuing to let the gas companies pillage the country and the end of free primary healthcare – just so his beloved ALP can claim credit for a surplus

  7. If the general rate of unemployment is 4%, then an unemployment rate of 7% for the disabled is a pretty significant achievement IMO. Going off C@t’s figures it seems that gap may have halved in recent years.

    More work to be done of course, but this would appear to be significantly better than the various Indigenous ‘close the gap’ strategies which has been running for nearly two decades now. …

  8. ‘Mexicanbeemer says:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 1:46 pm

    Boerwarsays:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 1:42 pm
    M
    Is there a gender quota for women’s percentage employment?
    ————————-
    Yes governments are using gender quotas to help close the gender pay gap.’
    =========================
    What are the fed percentage employment quotas?
    Source?

  9. steve davissays:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 1:53 pm
    C@t
    Just as I expected.
    ————–
    C@T is being selective by using 2018 data instead of 2022 because in that time disability unemployment went from 10.3% to 7.5%.

  10. Anybody who blames the unemployed for their plight and claims there are enough jobs out there if only the bums would get off their bums and apply for them, has never heard of the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). That’s the unemployment rate the Reserve Bank and governments generally target to, they claim, keep inflation low.

    That is, they aim to deliberately make full employment impossible.

    I find it sickening when the unemployed are vilified for not being able to find work when they are the victims of long-standing deliberate policy.

  11. Boerwarsays:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 2:05 pm
    ‘Mexicanbeemer says:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 1:46 pm

    Boerwarsays:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 1:42 pm
    M
    Is there a gender quota for women’s percentage employment?
    ————————-
    Yes governments are using gender quotas to help close the gender pay gap.’
    =========================
    What are the fed percentage employment quotas?
    Source?
    ——————–
    Gender quota is 40% and both federal and state governments are doing it and other day they said sports organizations had to fill 40% of board seats by women.

  12. Re the discussion on unemployment rates:

    They depend on the Participation Rate, which is a measure of those openly declared as actively seeking work. Any analysis of an unemployment rate for a specific group is almost irrelevant without having a long term understanding of the Participation Rate for that cohort. A low unemployment rate maybe because of a low participation rate due to factors such as disillusionment with previous efforts at seeking work.

  13. M

    40% gender quota for what?

    40% of board seats is not equivalent to women’s full time employment percentage which is what we seem to be talking about.

  14. Ante Meridian – absofrickinlutely!

    and to say ‘we can’t afford to implement every good idea’ when asked by pretty much everyone who isn’t a right wing media hack to raise the rate of the dole, but yet is also the federal government which not only issues its own currency, but has a spare lazy half trillion down the back of the couch for submarines that will never exist (just to avoid a morrison wedge) – it’s disgusting

  15. Boerwarsays:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 2:13 pm
    M

    40% gender quota for what?

    40% of board seats is not equivalent to women’s full time employment percentage which is what we seem to be talking about
    —————
    They using gender quotas to encourage women’s employment and to close the gender pay gap but its not the only thing they doing because participation is also affected by cost of child care and other things.

  16. A fiscal surplus would only be appropriate for Australia if:

    The domestic non-government sector’s spending as a share of the national economy was significantly increasing. This could result from domestic households and firms spending down their savings and / or increasing their borrowing in order to spend more.

    OR

    The AUD spending of the external sector (the rest of the world) was increasing significantly as a share of the national economy. This could result from significantly more foreign demand for Australian products and / or significantly less domestic demand for foreign products.

    OR

    A combination of the two.

    AND

    All of these conditions are met:
    Underemployment is zero
    Unemployment is between 1 and 2 percent
    All other productive resources are being used to the full

    Australia adopted a floating exchange rate in 1983, which gave the federal government much more fiscal flexibility than the previous monetary system.

    In the forty years since then the external sector has always been a net drain of demand in Australia’s economy. This means that Australians’ spending on the rest of the world’s products is greater than the rest of the world’s spending on our products. The rest of the world, in aggregate, is a net saver of AUD. It earns more AUD than it spends. Therefore it is inhibiting inflationary pressure in Australia’s economy.

    In the last forty years the domestic non-government sector has nearly always been a net saver too. That is, a drain on demand. An inhibitor of inflationary pressure. The sole exception was a brief period during the Howard Government when misguided contractionary fiscal policy prompted households to increase their borrowing from banks in order to maintain their spending. They didn’t respond by cutting their spending, which would have been followed by a recession. They were willing to borrow because house price inflation was rampant due to harmful tax deductions for investment properties. The increased household debt burden became a major problem later.

    In summary, there’s really only one scenario in which fiscal surpluses would be appropriate for Australia. That is if the external account reversed drastically and we were running large current account surpluses with regard to the rest of the world. It would mean that the rest of the world was injecting huge amounts of net spending into our economy, causing the government to have to run surpluses to cool down the economy and prevent high inflation.

    The domestic non-sector generally wants to net save and that’s a good thing. It’s socially useful for households to have a financial buffer to get them through unforeseen expenses. It’s socially harmful for households to be loaded up with debt.

    In normal circumstances the external sector runs a net surplus (it spends less than it earns). The same is true of the domestic non-government sector. Therefore the federal government runs a fiscal deficit that offsets the other two sectors’ surpluses. The fiscal deficit is equal to the sum of the other sectors’ surpluses. The government needs to make sure that its spending is always enough to maintain non-inflationary full employment. Full employment consists of no underemployment, unemployment of 1 to 2 percent, and full use of other productive resources.

  17. …but has a spare lazy half trillion down the back of the couch for submarines that will never exist (just to avoid a morrison wedge)

    How ridiculous.

  18. ‘PageBoi says:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 2:14 pm

    Ante Meridian – absofrickinlutely!

    and to say ‘we can’t afford to implement every good idea’ when asked by pretty much everyone who isn’t a right wing media hack to raise the rate of the dole, but yet is also the federal government which not only issues its own currency, but has a spare lazy half trillion down the back of the couch for submarines that will never exist (just to avoid a morrison wedge) – it’s disgusting’
    ———————
    Hmmmm…. pageboi doing the rage routine is just so… exciting to watch. If the lies and the misrepresentations were not so disgusting.

    The Federal Government does not have a lazy half trillion back of the couch or anywhere else. But nice try at the usual Greens bullshitting.

    We have seen governments who issue their own currency as if nothing matters other than issuing enough currency to spend it on whatever floats your boat. Inflation. Hyperinflation.

    BTW, pageboi, it is not half a trillion. It is a third of a trillion. I know the Greens don’t get excited about sums so a couple of hundred billion here or there is hardly to be worried about. Just print it. What IS half a trillion is what the Greens hope to get from imposing the highest company tax rates in the world.

    You are simply not telling the truth when you state that third of a trillion is here right now to spend. It is not.

    That third of a trillion is over the life of the submarines. That makes it around $4 billion a year.

    The real question here is when it was that the Greens decided that lying like Trump was good enough for them.

  19. ‘Mexicanbeemer says:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 2:15 pm

    Boerwarsays:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 2:13 pm
    M

    40% gender quota for what?

    40% of board seats is not equivalent to women’s full time employment percentage which is what we seem to be talking about
    —————
    They using gender quotas to encourage women’s employment and to close the gender pay gap but its not the only thing they doing because participation is also affected by cost of child care and other things.’
    =================
    OK so you were just setting up a false frame to make a faux point. Again and again and again.

  20. ‘FUBAR says:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 2:11 pm

    Re the discussion on unemployment rates:

    They depend on the Participation Rate, which is a measure of those openly declared as actively seeking work. Any analysis of an unemployment rate for a specific group is almost irrelevant without having a long term understanding of the Participation Rate for that cohort. A low unemployment rate maybe because of a low participation rate due to factors such as disillusionment with previous efforts at seeking work.’
    —————–
    Yep.

  21. Last coal fired power station in England closes today.1882 first country to use a coal fired plant for electricity were the poms.

  22. Boerwar
    OK so you were just setting up a false frame to make a faux point. Again and again and again.
    ——————
    Don’t fall off your seat but i’m saying the government is doing a good job on gender and should use of its good stuff on disabled employment and other disadvantaged groups.

  23. Mexicanbeemer @ #310 Monday, September 30th, 2024 – 2:06 pm

    steve davissays:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 1:53 pm
    C@t
    Just as I expected.
    ————–
    C@T is being selective by using 2018 data instead of 2022 because in that time disability unemployment went from 10.3% to 7.5%.

    No I wasn’t. I just picked a random year during the Coalition’s reign. Please don’t just make crap up.

    Oh, and you want to talk about 2022 (and making things up)?

    In March 2022 more than a quarter (29% or 242,484 job seekers) of the total jobactive caseload had a disability.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/Research

    So, where did you pull your 7.5% in 2022 number from, MexicanBeemer?

  24. Whilst there are sound arguments for running deficits, there are also sound arguments against them.

    But what seems to be missed by some here is that if Labor were running deficits the entirety of the Australian media would be running the LNP’s false lines ad nauseam that the LNP are better economic managers, when blind Freddy knows that isn’t the case. There’s are many partisans here who are anti-Labor are, but are you so deeply mired in your partisanship that you crave deficits so much that you’d quicken the reelection of those wreckers?

  25. Two more ACT voters polled.

    One had zero interest. Totally disinterested. Did not know an election was nigh and did not care. There was no way of telling where that vote will go.

    The second, ditto with the observation that you vote for them and they do what they want to do anyway. This one I reckon will vote for the Liberals.

    Labor may be getting at least a little bit concerned about the interest in the Indies (as reported by your Bludger correspondent over the past fortnight) and have now letterboxed pamphlets with the them of ‘Don’t let your vote turn you blue’. The subtext is that a vote for the Indies might get you a Liberal government in the ACT. Various direct quotes by Indies of whom they would or would not support if elected are part of the pamphlet.

  26. MI
    It turns out that running an economy is quite a bit harder than any old Greens 18 year old who wants to gazzump the RBA and have the Greens Bottom of the Garden Funny Money Committee do it instead.

  27. C@tmomma
    So, where did you pull your 7.5% in 2022 number from, MexicanBeemer?
    ——————–
    2022 data released this year is the latest data in the series for your 2018 data.

    To the government’s credit they seem to have shortened the time frame between data releases.

  28. Just another example of how out of touch the Labor Political Party is. As with the whinge about the CPRS, crowing about the surplus reeks of a party without a clue, fighting decades old battles that literally nobody cares about anymore.
    What hope for a future focused agenda from a bunch of losers stuck in the past?

  29. My point earlier about likely Qld Police reaction to a new government elected on a tough on juvenile crime ticket has nothing to do with 2 tiered policing.
    It’s not Rocket Science – if the cops are told they’re not doing their job, they’ll start doing it all right, but the tagets wont be criminal motorcycle gangs or indigenous/refugee youth, it will be ordinary people going about their business, and it will be nonstop for 4 years.
    That was the real reason Newman got booted after 3 years.
    So, a vote for Crisafulli’s LNP is a vote for 24 hr RBT, licence checks, speed traps and turning Red Light Cameras on again.

  30. “So, a vote for Crisafulli’s LNP is a vote for 24 hr RBT, licence checks, speed traps and turning Red Light Cameras on again.”

    Hope they enjoy it like last time.

  31. Labor isn’t crowing, the Treasurer is simply doing his job, and rightly so. This so-called ‘surplus celebration’ is barely making waves. It’s buried halfway down The Guardian’s webpage, missing entirely from The Australian’s, and, unsurprisingly, only the AFR has it as a top story. The wonks are paying attention, and if this rates in your view as ‘crowing’ you should get out more.

  32. If you think the cost of the Aukus program will come in at the announced $360 billion, you haven’t been paying attention to defence procurement in this country this century.

    Government projects in general come in late and over budget, and defence projects are generally worse than normal government projects (see: The Hunter class program as the defence fuck up du jour). With a project as massively risk as AUKUS, half a trillion is likely to be a conservative estimate of the total cost, so I totally stand by calling it a lazy half trillion

    Even if as you ay the cost of Aukus boils down to $4b per year (which I dispute), then wouldn’t you know it the Australia Institute put the cost of raising the dole to the poverty line at $4.6b per year
    (see https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/poverty-is-a-policy-choice-it-is-time-for-the-government-to-choose-better/ ) , so the ALP has decided a morrison brainfart is more important than ensuring a decent standard of living for people on welfare

    and that’s before we get to all of the other problems with Aukus which have been well ventilated here and elsewhere, or even whether SSNs represent a capability we even need

    the point is, the government has many policy options open to it, and it continues to choose poorly

  33. ‘Banquo911 says:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 2:52 pm

    Just another example of how out of touch the Labor Political Party is. As with the whinge about the CPRS, crowing about the surplus reeks of a party without a clue, fighting decades old battles that literally nobody cares about anymore.
    What hope for a future focused agenda from a bunch of losers stuck in the past?’
    ——————————
    The real Banquo had honor. This one is but a pale shadow of the original.

    I wonder why some posters come by for a slag that is simply not based on observable reality?
    Is banquo really just a Menzies House Sock Puppet?

    Dutton has delayed, blocked or voted against nearly every single major reform carried through by the Albanese Government.

    But Labor and Liberal are still supposed to be the same. What complete and utter self serving Greens addlepated twaddle.

    Dutton has promised to dismantle most of the following when in power.

    Comprehensive climate action reform. 43/30.
    Effective Budget repair
    NDIS reform
    AAT reform
    NACC reform
    Gender pay gap reform
    HR reform
    S3 tax reform
    $4.7 billion DV comprehensive suite of reforms. Biggest ever.
    Indigenous services reform
    National vehicle emissions standards reform
    etc.

    The following reforms are currently being delayed or blocked by Dutton who is, apparently, no different from Albanese.

    Media misinformation reform
    $22 billion Future Fund
    The biggest Aged Care Package reform this century
    Additional funding for housing supply
    Religious discrimination reform.
    Biodiversity conservation and protection reform.
    Reserve Bank Reform.

  34. PageBoi says:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 3:07 pm

    or even whether SSNs represent a capability we even need

    That rules you out of any serious discussion of defence of the Nation.

  35. Badthinker, I think that 24 hr RBT, licence checks, speed traps and turning Red Light Cameras on again would do the average Queenslander a power of good. Random roadside stops for all tradie utes would also be a winner.

    There has to be some silver lining in having an LNP government. Bring it on, I say.

    Keeping Queensland Safe.

  36. It doesn’t really assist the Green Comms to conflate the cost of a 70 year long project with the recurrent expenditure of social security today. … but hey, they are only aiming to irritate the rest of us on this board (save for the tory faux progressive anti-Labor gaslighting brigade), aren’t they?

    OHFUCKUS is absurd for a whole heap of reasons, but has zero impact on the decisions that the treasurer and government are making regarding whether or not to increase the basic rate of unemployment benefits beyond the twice yearly indexations (and by how much). … or whether to increase the rental assistance benefit (and by how much). In both cases the Government is balancing a series of considerations, which may overlap, but in some cases point in different directions.

    I’d say that inflation is probably the key consideration and that provides the clearest dichotomy: increasing the dole (and / or the housing supplement) is a ‘cost of living measure’ BUT also potentially inflationary. It would be largely self defeating of the government’s aims if it introduced a cost of living measure only to see the Reserve Bank jack up interest rates, which would then lead to another round of rent increases and increases in the costs of consumables.

    Personally, I’d like to see the Government move to increase both the energy rebate for lower socio-economic groups and also increase the amount of rental assistance. Perhaps with inflation now easing, and the budget still looking ok (especially if Iron Ore Prices stabilise) the government can move more strongly in these areas (noting that it has already done a lot already – a point always overlooked by the Anti-Labor Party members on this board).

  37. ‘PageBoi says:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 3:07 pm

    If you think the cost of the Aukus program will come in at the announced $360 billion, you haven’t been paying attention to defence procurement in this country this century.
    ….’
    ==================
    The problem is this.
    When the Greens first practice to deceive they just dig deeper and deeper.
    Get caught out in a Greens half trillion dollar lie?
    Move the goal posts and keep kicking.

    If a Greens poster can magically turn $360 billion over 70 years into half a trillion to spend right now, anything is possible. Perhaps Banquo and PageBoi could have a chat and sort their numbers out. Right after they have set the interest rates for the RBA.

  38. @Mexicanbeemer – “Under your party’s policies if your son applied for a job and the only other candidate is a woman that woman will get the job.”

    That isn’t how it works anywhere and you must know that, so I don’t think you get to complain about anybody else being misleading.

    Even if the job you are talking about is Labor house of representatives candidate, that is not how it works.

  39. Arkysays:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 3:16 pm
    @Mexicanbeemer – “Under your party’s policies if your son applied for a job and the only other candidate is a woman that woman will get the job.”

    That isn’t how it works anywhere and you must know that, so I don’t think you get to complain about anybody else being misleading.

    Even if the job you are talking about is Labor house of representatives candidate, that is not how it works.
    ———————
    How is it misleading if there is a gender quota and not for the disabled because the employer will look to fill their quota.

  40. I’ll give the Greens Political Party this point Boerwar: claims of OHFUCKUS being a half a billion dollar project is no lie.

    Even according to the Governemt’s announced plans and assuming there are NO cost blowouts or delays it is clearly be a half trillion dollar program:-

    1. The $250-360 billion estimates is the money that gets the program through to 2053 only.

    2. By 2053 (all going well) the RAN will have 3 Virginia class boats in service and a maximum of 5 SSN AUKUS boats in service. Whilst some ‘announceables’ have indicated walking away from the commitment to having 8 SSN AUKUS boats in service by 2065, the fact is that at least two ‘second hand’ virginia boats will have to retired after 33 years of combined USN and RAN service (so between 2055 and 2057) so it seems likely that we will be ‘in for a penny, in for a pound’ on the whole 8 boat SSN AUKUS build. THERE IS NO MONEY. IN THAT $360 BILLION estimate to finish the last 3 to 4 boats.

    3. The $360 billion estimate does not include any sustainment costs past 2053. There will be at least 33 years of sustainment costs for an eight boat SSN fleet post 2053. NOT BUDGETED FOR!!!

    4. Ultimately between 8 and 11 SSN boats will have to be disposed of after they are retired. THERE IS NO MONEY in the $360 billion estimates for that.

    So, being honest about this – even if one engages in magical thinking that there will be no blow outs in either cost or schedules to 2053 – the true cost of OHFUCKUS will be still well north of half a trillion dollars, all told by the mid 2080s.

  41. “ Isn’t that odd. The gaslighting parrot and unsteady eddy riffing off each other. Again.”

    Boerwar, I have been clear that I respect you. You are here presenting your opinions, as am I. All citizens have a right to their opinions, and this is a forum provided to us where we may come together for discourse. And I respect all perspectives. But to misname me is to disrespect me. And I will not engage with you if you disrespect me.

  42. There’s a massive difference between a quota to be met across a large company and women automatically getting specific jobs.

    And if the quota isn’t being met naturally, it’s presumably because up to that point men have been advantaged, as with corporate boards (one of most likely areas to be targeted with quotas) where there’s no good reason for them being male dominated except perpetuating sexism and old boys’ networks.

    There’s no particularly good reason for men to heavily outnumber women in Parliament. Labor has corrected this over time with quotas. The Coalition which has resisted quotas continues to struggle, because wouldn’t you know, the men in charge keep favouring men.

    If all you see in quotas is men being disadvantaged, but you can’t see women being disadvantaged without them, that’s your lookout.

    You want disability quotas? It’s a harder thing to do because we’re not talking about literally half the population and disabilities vary so widely, and just look at your own incredibly hostile reaction to a quota that involves literally half the population.

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