Queensland election guide

A big day for Queensland gets even better with the publication of the Poll Bludger’s guide to the October 26 state election.

With a day under four weeks to go, the Poll Bludger’s guide to the Queensland election is in action. As always, this expansive endeavour involves pages for every one of the state’s 93 electorates, featuring extensive reviews of history, electoral geography and candidate backgrounds, charts, tables and interactive maps displaying past results, and a one page overview for beginners. Those who find the endeavour in any way useful or interesting are encouraged to chip in with a donation, which can be done through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the site, as it involved a vast amount of labour amid what’s been a rather lean month on that score. By no means does the matter end there, as this site will be all over developments in the campaign over the next four weeks, culminating in a new-look and better-than-ever live election results reporting on October 26 and beyond.

UPDATE (Freshwater Strategy poll): The Financial Review has a Freshwater Strategy state poll showing the LNP leading 56-44, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down four on the last such poll in June 2023), LNP 43% (up three), Greens 12% (up one) and One Nation 8% (up one). David Crusafulli leads Steven Miles 46-38 as preferred premier, compared with 45-44 against Annastacia Palaszczuk in the last poll. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1062.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

88 thoughts on “Queensland election guide”

  1. A one page overview for beginners.
    _____________________
    Thanks William. Had a read.
    Handy summary of the state of play for us Southerners.

  2. William, thank you for your guide.

    The list of seats on the guide is missing Currumbin. All of the others seem to be there (there are 92 of them).

  4. WB thanks too for this QLD update and blog.

    My reckoning is that the LNP will top 60 seats, and Labor will be reduced to somewhere between 12-18 seats. There should be an increase in Greens representation, and the Katter’s will probably hang on to their seats. Nth Coastal Qld will belt Labor in 27 days time. That will be enough to finish this current gov’t. The LNP already have a python grip on the Sunny & Goldie, so their margins will only increase there. Brisbane’s northern suburbs will swing LNP. Greens, I think, will jag McConnel (Minister Grace). They should pick up Cooper too (Brisbane’s inner West). Sth Brisbane & Maiwar (inner Sth west), they will hold – Sth Brisbane probably on primaries this time.
    Miller & Greenslopes (both inner South, for non Brisbanites) – a bit tougher for the Greens to pick up. LNP will probably top the primary in both these seats, so it really depends on how preferences flow when the left split. And who knows after the recent NT election.

    2 more days until the State Parliament shuts down.
    27 days until the election.
    Pity no Redbridge this weekend (they’re due), but nothing from Kos.
    Only Morgan tomorrow, and then another quiet week of polling.

  5. Miles could surprise here.
    Probably won’t win but get it closer than it seems.
    Crisufelli is hopeless and doesn’t have any polices. He is a little Newman soldier after all.
    The it’s time factor will probably get him but you never know.

  6. Henry read Nadia’s post, she actually thinks about things, unlike you who is going to soon be in touch with reality in 1 month. It will be a wipeout, and if you think Crisufelli is hopeless, how can you possibly have any adjectives for Miles.

  7. Hey, Henry,

    Yeah-nah,

    “ Shannon Fentiman, the woman most likely to be Labor Opposition leader if Steven Miles is trounced on October 26, is in trouble in her own safe Labor seat.

    ALP insiders say the Health Minister is facing a monster two-party preferred swing of 13 per cent in her outer Brisbane electorate of Waterford, which she holds on a Covid-boosted margin of 16.02 per cent.

    There’s confusion about who commissioned the dire phone poll by Labor’s preferred pollsters Talbot Mills (business partners with banned lobbyists Evan Moorhead and Fentiman’s ex-husband David Nelson), but the smart money is on the MP’s own union, the AMWU.“

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/feeding-the-chooks/qld-energy-minister-mick-de-brenni-in-witness-box-for-election-campaign/news-story/a3efecc8f43831816050106fa000ebf5

  8. L/NP at 42% will see Labor on the opposition benches. Looks like time for a change.

    Labor brought down a few budget surpluses, paid down debt and spread some joy for voters complaining about COL.

    50c fares is taking traffic off the arterials in peak hour and those talking about COL who don’t want $1000 electricity subsidy are voting against their best interests.

    Dutton and Crucifooli have been evasive and at odds about nuclear power. Feeling on the street is ” too expensive, too slow, won’t happen”. The L/NP renewable energy aims deserve a look.

    There are 2 hydro projects coming down the line. Borumba dam is to be reviewed day one by incoming L/NP Govt but it might be too advanced to stop. They have opposed it every step of the way. Pioneer River/ Mackay hydro is bigger than Snowy Mountains scheme and L/NP says no way, this project is being cancelled. Although a lot of preliminary work and acquisitions have happened, it will be stopped.

    All up wind power projects happening, under construction or awaiting approval can power over 3 million homes although most power is going into Industry. Crucifooli and L/NP heavyweights have said no future wind turbines will get approval. Zero.
    Far NQ has best environment for wind power in Australia with existing farms at Ingham, Cooktown, St Lawrence, Ravenshoe, Hughenden and more. West of Mt Isa has exportable mineral reserves of over $500 billion that need power that wind and solar should generate.

    L/NP can’t give a straight answer on solar.

    Labor has joint venture RE projects in the pipeline and under negotiation with $25 billion in budgets in the last 2 years. That is only a fraction of the project totals so that runs into big investment dollars.

    Qld owns the State’s electricity generation which is profitable. With all coal and gas power to be phased out by 2050 and no additional RE projects happening, Dutton’s nuclear timeline 2046 is cutting it fine.

    Many have been critical of how much damage is being done to the planet by coal and gas and are blaming everything from bushfires, floods and coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef on past Government RE inaction.

    In the next few weeks, Queenslanders should think about the paralysis that’s going to hit the renewable energy sector with L/NP steering the ship for at least the next 4 years. Campbell Newman created an environment of anger and rage when he attempted to sell our energy assets. The ETU ‘ not for sale’ protests resulted in numerous arrests and injuries. Crucifooli was part of the Newman cabinet that said nothing about asset sales before the election. Expect an announcement about asset sales a few days before this election or it’s probable there will be trouble ahead.

  9. Freshwater Poll.
    “Premier Steven Miles is on track for a wipeout at next month’s Queensland state election, as the Liberal-National opposition opens a 12-point two-party-preferred lead, according to a new poll.
    The latest Australian Financial Review-Freshwater Strategy survey shows Labor’s primary support has collapsed 10 points to 30 per cent since its third successive election victory in 2020 as Queenslanders struggle with cost-of-living and housing pressures, along with widespread fury over the handling of crime.”
    56-44

  11. Thanks Nadia.
    “The poll of 1062 Queensland voters was taken from Thursday to Sunday with the election campaign officially kicking off this week.”
    I would not mind an ACT poll as well to see if anything is in play there.

  12. Thanks. I should get an AFR subscription as they seem to drop a few polls.

    It’s intereresting. The common perception is that Federal Labor wants this election “out of the way”.
    The AFR reporter agrees with this in this article…
    Link: https://www.afr.com/politics/queensland-wipeout-good-for-labor-s-federal-election-chances-20240929-p5kecb ,

    …yet Samaras takes a different view, suggesting that QLD Labor’s polling at the Federal election “could worsen” further.

  14. I only have a heraldsun subscription. Just need a big family to access other subscriptions, my mum has the Australian and the Age which includes the AFR as well as my sisters.
    For the Federal election next May, it matters how the QLD LNP go in their first 6 months.
    In the Fed election in 1993, Kennett’s cuts did not help Hewson and the GST finished him off.

  15. The Redbridge polling is very informative, with its detailed geographical breakdown. You can’t understand political sentiment currently in Queensland or federally without understanding how outer metropolitan and regional areas are going in a completely different direction to inner city areas.

  16. It will be interesting to see how Chrisafulli handles the state in the lead up to the Federal election.
    My guess is that QLD politics will be very very quiet over summer, with no rash decisions that may upset the horses.
    Federal implications: I’d say Dutts will increase the LNP margins in the LNP seats, but just can’t really see any LNP pick ups. Perhaps Moreton as the LNP pulled 33% last time but the Green vote is also in the 20’s there. Actually Moreton might be one to watch given Perrett has gone (middle eastern suburbs of Gtr Brisbane for non Qld’ers). I doubt the LNP will reclaim Brisbane. I think the Green primary will strengthen there and they’ll hang on.
    Anyway, I’m getting way too far ahead of the politics game, we haven’t even had the state election.
    26 days to go!

  18. The Wombat says:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 8:58 am
    The Redbridge polling is very informative, with its detailed geographical breakdown….
    ====================================
    Agreed Wombat, it def is an informative & detailed polling outfit.
    They did a really good poll on the Victorian Federal seat of Macnamara a couple of months ago.
    This is their archive if you wish to flick through their polling. Redbridge often goes unremarked, but they generally do reasonable samples (I like anything over 1500). Kos Samaras is one of their directors and he is fairly well connected within the Victorian ALP apparatus. Redbridge (along with Freshwater) are noticeable in that they tend to publish higher LNP primaries, compared to other pollsters. No poll herding going on, this electoral cycle anyway.

    Link to the Redbridge archive (click on the politics tab):

    https://redbridgegroup.com.au/blog-media/

  20. Agree 26 days to go and the only way the LNP can lose if Chrisafulli is a dope as Henry thinks he is. Looking at him, I think he handles things fine. If he wins as expected, he will do everything possible not to make Newman’s mistakes. But by history, an QLD LNP government generally helps the Fed Labor side in the polls unless a honeymoon period is still present.

  21. William,

    A small correction on the Cairns page: “Labor’s strongest areas tend to be nearer the city, with the Earlwood and Mooroobool area in the south-west tending more conservative.”

    Earlwood should read Earlville.

  24. Hi Nadia,

    1 – I would like to acknowledge that I appreciate and respect the quality and thoughtfulness of your posts, irrespective of whether or not I agree with you in any particular post.

    2 – I think the swing in Brisbane should be limited to about 10% (which is what I would expect here in Mansfield) so I think rather than you prediction of 12 – 18 seats is a bit on the low side, and that ALP could retain 22 -28 (so say 25). Larger swings more likely outside Brisbane, particularly in NQ, Hervey Bay etc.

    3 – I think you are underestimating the LNP in Qld federally. I expect them to gain two of the Greens seats on the back of the drop in the ALP vote, even if the sitting Greens members do increase the number of their first preference votes. I would add one ALP seat to that and possibly two, if things get worse for ALP federally. That would leave just 1 Green and 2-3 ALP out of the 30.

  25. My estimate at this stage is ALP to be in the high 20s to low 30s. The LNP will win at this stage but plenty for the ALP to throw at them . In 2012 Newman was a clean skin and known as the moderate council leader who lead the clean up after 2011 floods. Crisifulli and his virtually unchanged 2012 team have plenty of lead in his saddle bags and ALP are already exploiting this in adverts. Who knows they the may even get into the 40s – only joking Nadia

  26. I think it will be 57-43 , a 10% swing, of course won’t be uniform but ALP will lose at least 23 seats – LNP 57/ALP 29 but the ALP will be smashed regionally and in the outer more aspirational suburbs in Brisbane so probably lose more and the Greens will attack the inner suburbs of Brisbane.
    Newman got 62.8% but don’t expect that high , if it was the ALP would be left with 9 seats.
    My seat guess is 66 LNP 20 Labor as the swing was higher in the NT than I thought (57-43CLP) and I think this has similar ingredients.

  27. FUBAR:
    I find it hilarious the number of posters who think the QLD LNP haven’t learnt from the Newman experience.
    The cops crueled it for Newman, speed traps red light cameras RBT, licence checks from go to whoa.
    Palaszczuk gradually wound that in until the cops were nearly invisible in the Inner Suburbs.
    Crisafulli’s problem is he hasn’t disavowed the Courier Mail campaign about juvenile crime being a problem, he’s actually run with it.
    By January, the Courier will be running daily stories about bashings in Watchhouses, multiple taserings, shit they didn’t see during Labor’s 10 years in the hot seat.
    It isn’t a matter of whether or not there is a problem, it’s a fact that the cops aren’t doing much about it for whatever reasons, and pissing them off is the #1 NoNo of Qld politics.

  28. Other than an it’s time factor, juvenile crime is about all he’s got and it has positioned the LNP for a big win. The timing of a tragic incident where an unsuspecting lady was stabbed by a youth in the Ipswich area certainly added to the anger at the ballot box for the nearby Ipswich west and Inala by elections. The only problem for the LNP is that if you are a one trick pony you will be judged heavily on that trick. It will also be an uncomfortable time during this campaign when they have to release some other policies. The local courier is certainly pushing for action on ” right sizing” the public service and PS cuts are pretty much central to LNP ideology. Asset sales are also in this orthodoxy . Agreeing to be like the ALP but somewhat tougher on crime is really binding them to policies that irk them. So they will need to find a way to get some wriggle room on these issues and it could open them up to some very uncomfortable wedges .

  29. PP;
    The timing of a tragic incident where an unsuspecting lady was stabbed by a youth in the Ipswich area certainly added to the anger at the ballot box for the nearby Ipswich west and Inala by elections.
    Redbank Plains is nowhere near either Inala or Ipswich West.
    It wasn’t a tragic incident and the woman wasn’t ‘unsuspecting’.
    It was cold blooded murder.
    She refused to give him the keys to her car.
    Retired schoolteacher.
    Last words to her family at home were alomg the lines of:
    “Nonsense, i’ll be quite safe going to the Redbank Plains shopping centre with my 6 year old grand daughter”
    The local courier is certainly pushing for action on ” right sizing” the public service and PS cuts are pretty much central to LNP ideology.
    The worst thing any LNP government can do is listen to the Courier Mail.
    Crisafulli has already said there’ll be no cuts.
    All he needs to do is make sure there are no hirings and replace the Police Commissioner.
    That’s all Nicklin did in 1957, it wasn’t easy, they were in power until 1989.

  30. Fargo61 says:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 2:28 pm
    ==========================
    Thanks Fargo61 for your nice comments. I do try to have a good look at the trends and be fair to both sides.. Having said that, I’ll grab my sledgehammer out of my handbag, and go straight to the most recent by-elections in QLD….

    * Ipswich West: 15% primary swing against Labor and 18% on the 2PP
    * Inala : 30% swing against Labor and 21.5% on the 2PP.

    These sorts of swings are on the scale of the Penrith (NSW) by-election in 2010 or the Canberra (Fed) by election in 1995. These swings are messages, and the message is that the voters are very upset. More-so in Inala because, to be honest, AP was actually regarded well in this state (Inala was her seat). She connected with Nth Qld and the regions and she never played favourites. The perception is that she was pushed out & backstabbed whilst she was overseas on a holiday with her husband, and now we have ended up with Steven Miles, who is regarded as a silly man, who actually has a history of silly stunts (such as ripping up the NSW covid bill). One thing I know about QLD is that men over 18 are expected to behave like men and not like schoolchildren. Chrisafulli fits the bill at the moment, Miles has well and truly failed that test. He actually comes across more like one of those electronic clowns at the show where you pop a ball into it’s mouth. No one is voting for this.

    The dye was cast with the Inala & Ipswich by-elections.
    Me thinks the LNP will top 60 seats.
    Labor between 12-18.
    Greens – up.
    Katter affiliates – hold (maybe drop 1)

    And thanks once again Fargo for your nice comments. I def don’t try to play favourites or run the pro-Labor, pro-Lib purity nonsense. I look at where things are tracking today and drop a line I suppose.

  31. Princeplanet says:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 2:33 pm
    My estimate at this stage is ALP to be in the high 20s to low 30s. The LNP will win at this stage but plenty for the ALP to throw at them . In 2012 Newman was a clean skin and known as the moderate council leader who lead the clean up after 2011 floods. Crisifulli and his virtually unchanged 2012 team have plenty of lead in his saddle bags and ALP are already exploiting this in adverts. Who knows they the may even get into the 40s – only joking Nadia.
    ========================
    All good PrinceP. I think you were active on the site earlier this year when the by-elections occurred.
    Jokes aside – can’t see the ALP hanging onto 40+ seats. I’ve suggested way lower, but we’ll see the final count in 26 days.
    Thanks for your posts on QLD too. You seem to have a good knowledge of the state. I gather you are a QLD’er

  33. I am a Labor Green partisan. This election will be a wipe out for the progressive side of politics.

    I am astounded that people ignore the polling. The polls pick up trends and the qld state ALP has been in too long, they will be pounded for COL. people love the racist crime garbage.

    QLF swings big. Chrisafulli will have a significant majority. He will of course be a terrible Premier. The LNP are a horrible nasty organisation. Dutton is their petronis.

  34. Hello Nadia : the 40 seats was 100% humour. I live in Brisbane and my observations are based on gut feelings and a long history of observation. I knew things were really bad for Labor back in 2012. I was also a supporter of keeping AP in place but I think the media did a pretty good hit job on her and were successful in diminishing her standing. I think Brisbane might not be so bad for Labor but the rest of the state will be pretty bad. A real issue I pick up is Brisbane vs the rest. Regional people rightly or wrongly think they make the money and Brisbane gets the good stuff. I think this is almost as significant as crime in the regions. Anyway Labor won’t win from these polls but the next four weeks will determine the damage.

  35. Regional people rightly or wrongly think they make the money and Brisbane gets the good stuff. I think this is almost as significant as crime in the regions.
    It’s not about who makes what where.
    It’s that half the population of Qld lives in the SE corner south of Nambour, but they get all the State Gov’t Pork.
    It’s always been that way, under the Coalition and Labor.

  36. 50c Fares is a good idea, but why wait until you’re walking the plank?
    The way this Government has thrown the Billion$$ around, you might thing they had the tax base of China, rather than less than 5 million people.

  37. @BadThinker,
    Actually roughly half of the Queensland’s population lives below Brisbane’s Northern suburbs, about where the Brisbane Airport is latitudinally. It’s a very common misconception for people to think that half of Queensland’s population lies above or near the Sunshine Coast. People always underestimate just how many people are located in Toowoomba, Logan, Ispwich, and of course the Gold Coast.

  38. Seq observer: apparently 3.8 million live in SEQ which is sun coast, gold coast, greater Brisbane and Toowoomba. The rest of the state approximately 1.2 million.

  40. The Australian is reporting libs will put labor ahead of the Greens in the Qld state election.
    Ted the lib leader in VIC the last one to win did the same.

  42. @Price Planet, yep exactly. Hence why you can chop South East Queensland latitudinally at approximately the airport and have half of Queensland’s population above and below it. The Southern Downs, St George and Goondiwindi too give the southern side a bit of a bump also.

    I often play this game with my friends where I ask them to draw a line on the map of Queensland where they think they’ve split the population in two. Most do it between Gympie and Bundaberg. The people that are really concerned that it’s a trick question and up somewhere around the Sunshine Coast. But as I touched on, the line really isn’t really too far from the Brisbane River, you could almost use the Kedron Brook as your line.

    With continued growth throughout Ipswich, Logan and the Gold Coast’s fringes, I expect this line to further track towards the Brisbane CBD in the near-term. The other part of the story here is the densification of Brisbane’s inner-ring with high-rise apartments, particularly around West End and South Bank.

  44. Labor will be in trouble south side I feel. You go towards Mansfield/Springwood/Rochedale and it’s a sea of blue LNP yard signs, previously there was no such thing.

    Youth Crime is biting hard south as the kids drive up from Logan and steal cars from the outer BCC suburbs.

    I reckon Mansfield and Springwood will flip blue.

  45. SEQ: the demographics are interesting alright. Brisbane is the centre of a much bigger population than 2.5 million. It’s also such a long way from north Queensland population centres so I can understand how alienated they feel from Brisbane. I have never been north of Bundaberg but been to Sydney Melbourne and Tasmania plenty of times. Brisbane has a lot more in common with northern NSW than the cities north of Fraser island.

  46. It’s not just that people think the government hasn’t spent enough on the northern part of the state. It’s a perceived issue even in outer metro Brisbane. You’ve got about 1.3 million in more inner metro Brisbane, and basically the rest of the state, about 4 million people, think too much government money has been spent to the benefit of that 1.3 million. The grievances are largely around delivery of government services, but also increasingly infrastructure.

    I’m a relatively new Queenslander, but I think this grievance is at the core of LNP politics and appeal in Queensland, in a way I haven’t experienced interstate, although have experienced it overseas. Peter Dutton “gets it”, it’s at the heart of his politics. And it’s part of why Campbell Newman failed. He didn’t address these issues. In fact, he was probably even more Brisbane-centric than the ALP. If Crisafulli is to be successful, he’ll need to be seen to doing more for outer metro and regional Queensland. Queensland politics is going to be fought in the outer suburbs and big regional centres.

  48. You’ve got about 1.3 million in more inner metro Brisbane, and basically the rest of the state, about 4 million people, think too much government money has been spent to the benefit of that 1.3 million.

    Here’s the figures:
    as of the 2021 Census, the City of Brisbane had a population of 1,242,825
    spread across 23 State seats.
    There are 19 Inner Suburbs:
    Bardon
    Bowen Hills
    Brisbane CBD
    East Brisbane
    Fortitude Valley
    Herston
    Highgate Hill
    Kangaroo Point
    Kelvin Grove
    New Farm
    Newstead
    Paddington
    Petrie Terrace
    Red Hill
    South Brisbane
    Spring Hill
    Teneriffe
    West End
    Woolloongabba
    Total: 19
    and 174 outer suburbs
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_of_Brisbane
    Those Inner suburbs are spread over the State Seats of McConnell

    10

    , South Brisbane

    6

    and Cooper,

    3

    .
    Given enrolment in those seats is 114,000, add another 57,000 other people, you’re looking at a situation where the Government of whatever stripe is way more concerned about 170,000 people in 3 seats than the people in the other 90 seats combined.
    That’s always been the perception and it’s not far from the truth.
    edit:
    Greens already hold South Brisbane, likely to win McConnell imo, Cooper was known as Ashgrove until 2017, has gone to the Party winning Government in every election since 1989, will be a Green gain, imo.

  49. @The Wombat, agree with you that this grievance is at the core of the LNP politics in Queensland. On a state level, these frustrations are directed at inner-Brisbane and on a Federal level, this gets channelled towards Canberra and the two major East-Coast capitals.

    For Labor, it’s a very tricky situation to navigate. They have to operate with disparate campaign messaging directed at different regions of Queensland. They are also are at a constant risk being wedged by the Greens in the City and the LNP out in the suburbs and beyond. State Labor in the recent decade have been able to better manage this because they are able to directly focus their campaign on this difficult and delicate balancing act. But in the Federal election context, have their attention more broadly focussed on the country as a whole, and are unable to sufficiently tailor a campaign directly at Queensland.

  50. The coal tax was a cracker of a policy the budget is in good Nick in Qld.

    Since Covid ended a lot of Aspirational types from VIC and NSW etc have flooded into qld that will obviously help the libs.

    Kiwis cramming in cannot vote that economy is a basket case.

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