US presidential election minus six weeks

Kamala Harris a slight favourite to win in Nate Silver’s model. Also covered: two Canadian by-elections, a dreadful poll for Keir Starmer, France’s new Prime Minister, a German state election and a socialist wins in Sri Lanka.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Kamala Harris has a 49.0-46.3 lead over Donald Trump (49.2-46.2 in my previous US election article for The Conversation on Monday). In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Harris has at least a one-point lead in enough states to win the Electoral College by a 276-262 margin.

In Silver’s model, Harris has a 55% chance to win the Electoral College, up from 54% on Monday. She has been the favourite since last Friday after falling to a 35% win probability on September 9. Previously there had been a large gap between Silver’s and FiveThirtyEight’s models, with Harris favoured more at FiveThirtyEight. But this gap has nearly vanished, with Harris now a 56% win probability at FiveThirtyEight.

Monday’s Conversation article also covered elections for the US House of Representatives and Senate that will be held concurrently with the presidential election. If Harris wins, Democrats have a good chance to regain control of the House, but Republicans are likely to gain Senate control. Democrats are defending seats in three states Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020 and the Senate system favours Republicans owing to two senators per state.

Canada looking bleak for Liberals

Two Canadian federal by-elections occurred on September 16. In LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Quebec, 91 candidates stood as a protest against first-past-the-post, with most receiving very few votes. The left-wing separatist Quebec Bloc gained from the centre-left Liberals, winning by 28.0-27.2 with 26.1% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) and 11.6% for the Conservatives. At the 2021 federal election, results in this seat were 42.9% Liberal, 22.1% Quebec Bloc, 19.4% NDP and 7.5% Conservatives.

At the by-election in Elmwood-Transcona in Manitoba, the NDP retained against the Conservatives, but by a much reduced margin. The NDP defeated the Conservatives by 48.1-44.1 with 4.8% for the Liberals. In 2021, the NDP won this seat by 49.7-28.1 with 14.7% for the Liberals.

The next Canadian federal election is due by October 2025. FPTP will be used to elect all 343 seats, with 172 needed for a majority. The CBC poll tracker gives the Conservatives 42.9%, the Liberals 24.1%, the NDP 17.6% and the Quebec Bloc 7.8% (33.5% in Quebec). This would be a Conservative landslide with the seat projection giving them 218 seats, the Liberals 63, the Quebec Bloc 39 and the NDP 21. The Liberals have governed since they won the October 2015 election, though they were reduced to a minority government after the 2019 election.

UK, France, Germany and Sri Lanka

In my previous article in early September, I covered the lack of a honeymoon for UK Labour and PM Keir Starmer after winning the July 4 general election. In an Opinium poll taken last week, Starmer’s net approval had plunged 45 points since the first post-election Opinium poll in mid-July. His net approval is now -26, one point lower than for former Conservative PM Rishi Sunak.

At snap French parliamentary elections in early July, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39. On September 5, Macron appointed the conservative Michel Barnier as his new PM. Last Saturday, Barnier and Macron announced a new cabinet composed of mostly conservative ministers. The NFP is hostile to the new government, so its survival depends on National Rally abstaining on confidence motions.

I previously covered September 1 German state elections in Thuringia and Saxony where the far-right AfD made gains. At last Sunday’s state election in Brandenburg, the centre-left SPD won 32 of the 88 seats (up seven since 2019), the AfD 30 (up seven), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 14 (new) and the conservative CDU 12 (down three). The Greens and Left had won ten seats each in 2019, but were wiped out as neither cleared the 5% threshold.

At last Saturday’s Sri Lankan presidential election, the socialist candidate of the National People’s Power party defeated the establishment candidate by 55.9-44.1 after preferences. The NPP had won just 3.2% in 2019.

483 thoughts on “US presidential election minus six weeks”

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  2. “The most selfish narcissist in America strikes again”

    PatriotTakes @patriottakes

    Trump spoke at a podium built out of bricks from a furniture store destroyed by the hurricane.

  4. Jaeger @ #352 Tuesday, October 1st, 2024 – 11:27 pm

    “The most selfish narcissist in America strikes again”

    PatriotTakes @patriottakes

    Trump spoke at a podium built out of bricks from a furniture store destroyed by the hurricane.

    And it looks like Miss Georgia Loser 2022, Kelly Loefler, is on hand on the far left to pretend with The Great Pretender. 😐

  5. They are lowering expectations for Walz. That’s a worry, my expectations were already fairly low. They say he is nervous. That isn’t helping my nerves.

    He wasn’t the sharpest tool in the VP choices tool box. But they didn’t pick him for that (perhaps because of it). So let’s hope the other qualities shine thru the nerves and the hiccups.

  6. Team Katich @ #355 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024 – 5:59 am

    They are lowering expectations for Walz. That’s a worry, my expectations were already fairly low. They say he is nervous. That isn’t helping my nerves.

    He wasn’t the sharpest tool in the VP choices tool box. But they didn’t pick him for that (perhaps because of it). So let’s hope the other qualities shine thru the nerves and the hiccups.

    Or it could be a tactic. 🙂

  8. On those port strikes.

    Liam Martin@LiamFromBoston
    ·
    8h
    Feels important to note that the president of the union leading the port strike has a long-standing relationship with Trump and is causing major damage to a roaring economy five weeks before the election.

  9. An interesting factoid:

    We should be looking for clues on how Vance thinks our government should be run. Rachel Maddow had segment, Sept 30,2024, that reported some previously known but not widely discussed information about JD’s views on our leadership and how they need to be replaced by conservatives.

    What JD articulates in clips in the segment are incredible — like, if you can’t remove the leadership by voting they need to be ripped out like a tumor. If Trump is unfit for office and a danger to the US as we know it, it’s at least as applicable to JD.

    As part of this reporting on Vance’s views, Maddow mentioned Vance’s being influenced by Curtis Yarvin. There are some long-standing and complex connections between Vance and Yarvin. From what I found on the web:

    Peter Thiel and Curtis Yarvin have a notable connection primarily through their shared interests in technology and political philosophy. Thiel, a billionaire tech investor, has supported Yarvin’s projects and ideas over the years. Here are some key points about their connection:
    Investment in Tlön: In 2013, Thiel invested in Tlön, a software startup co-founded by Yarvin. Tlön was focused on developing Urbit, a decentralized computing platform.
    Political Philosophy: Yarvin, also known by his pen name Mencius Moldbug, is a prominent figure in the neoreactionary movement. His writings and ideas have influenced Thiel and others in Thiel’s circle, often referred to as the “Thielverse.”
    Influence on Political Figures: Yarvin’s ideas have also influenced political figures supported by Thiel, such as J.D. Vance. Thiel funded a Super PAC for Vance’s 2022 Senate run, and Vance has cited Yarvin as an influence on his political thinking.
    (The Washington Post)

  10. C@t:

    Vance strikes me as a deeply insecure person. All Walz has to do is get under his very thin skin like Harris did to Trump.

  12. Have you wondered why Trump started claiming that Kamala Harris was ‘mentally disabled’? Look no further than Russia:

    Russia’s attempts to influence the 2024 election in favor of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump are accelerating, federal officials and researchers say, adding to a sea of misinformation about immigration and his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, despite U.S. efforts to blunt the onslaught with indictments, seizures and public warnings.

    After a group of prominent far-right influencers was exposed last month for taking money provided by Russian state media figures, they continued to promote falsehoods to their large followings, including debunked claims about Haitians in Springfield, Ohio, eating pets.

    Those tales originated with locals gossiping and were amplified online by figures on the American right, and eventually by Trump. But researchers say Russian actors have piled on with even more exaggerated claims intended to scare more citizens about immigration and race, even after two Russian nationals were charged in early September with laundering money to covertly influence public opinion.

    The U.S. government’s seizure of 32 web domains hosting fake Fox News and Washington Post stories similarly did not put an end to that separate Russian caper, researchers say. The automated accounts that spread links to those stories are now sharing links to new “doppelganger” articles on faked versions of established outlets, including some asserting the Secret Service’s “criminal connivance” in the latest apparent attempt to kill Trump.

    Other researchers said last week they have discovered another Russian network touting a parade of lies about Harris, including that she is showing signs of Alzheimer’s and that her family has secret ties to “Big Pharma” and so would push puberty-blocking drugs.

    Clint Watts, who heads Microsoft’s efforts against government disinformation, said that Russian trolls have moved to new websites to host bogus news stories, and that such influence efforts might work better now than before, simply because the presidential contest is heating up. “The audience is much more vulnerable the closer we get to Election Day,” he said in an interview.

    The worst is probably still to come, said disinformation and cybersecurity scholar Thomas Rid, a professor at Johns Hopkins University. He said his biggest concern is not false information but “a real, newsworthy leak of files on the Harris campaign that will drive the news cycle.”

    https://wapo.st/3BrnF80

    (Free to read)

  13. When JD Vance contested for Senate in 2022, he said during debate for Senate seater, he said this about abortion: “safe, legal, and rare”

    Sounds familiar? You bet. FUBAR repeatedly said the same.

    But now Vance wants total abortion at national level.

    https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/26/jd-vance-abortion-ban-travel?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17278211900831&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fus-news%2Farticle%2F2024%2Fjul%2F26%2Fjd-vance-abortion-ban-travel

  14. Presidential Polling:

    GA
    Harris 48%
    Trump 48%

    AZ
    Trump 49%
    Harris 48%

    NV
    Trump 49%
    Harris 48%

    NC
    Trump 50%
    Harris 49%

    – InsiderAdvantage / Sept 26, 2024 –

    (Republican Pollster)

  15. Pennsylvania Polling:

    Pres:
    Harris (D): 49%
    Trump (R): 47%

    Sen:
    Casey (D): 49%
    McCormick (R): 45%

    Fabrizio/Impact Research / Sept 24, 2024 / n=600

  16. Presidential Polling:

    Harris (D): 51%
    Trump (R): 46%

    Morning Consult / Sept 29, 2024 / n=11381

    Presidential Polling:

    Harris (D): 51%
    Trump (R): 47%

    Leger / Sept 29, 2024

  17. New data on mail-in ballot requests in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania show Democrats far outpacing Republicans. The New York Times reports, citing data from the Pennsylvania secretary of state’s office, that so far Democrats have requested about 881,000 mail ballots. That is more than twice the 373,000 ballots requested by Republicans.

    Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes which are critical to the 270 needed to win the presidency. Donald Trump had a surprise victory in the state in 2016, but President Joe Biden won the election there in 2020 by 1.17 percentage points (80,555 votes). More than 2.6 million of the votes cast in the state in the last presidential election were mailed in due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

  18. As an aside on postal voting. Since Labor took it more seriously we have been doing better in that field. The Democrats likewise I’m sure.

  19. McCormick(R) is a resident of Connecticut, fcs! Just another Dr Oz. Bob Casey will win his Senate election.

    I saw an interview with Pennsylvania Governor, Josh Shapiro, the other day and he said that he is putting a lot of effort into House races as well as the bigger impact contests.

  20. I want everyone to watch the video, who is concerned/worries about American democracy. If Trump/Vance win the election, American democracy will be buried.
    We know Vance benefactor is Peter Theil, a Tech billionaire, who is influenced by this called Curtis Yarvin (TK, I know you have contempt for dailykos. But this is not about Daily Kos. It is about how Maddow compiled Vance far-right idealogy)

    Watch Rachel Maddow break down JD Vance’s radical, far-right ideology

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/1/2274057/-Watch-Rachel-Maddow-break-down-JD-Vance-s-radical-far-right-ideology?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_3&pm_medium=web

    Maddow highlights Vance’s citations of Curtis Yarvin—a right-wing blogger fascist that Thiel and the tech bro movement love. Vance has pointed to Yarvin as someone who has written about the radical solutions needed to topple our government and replace it.

    Maddow played a clip where Yarvin explains a simple plan for action that he calls “RAGE—Retire All Government Employees.” Yarvin believes that the country should be run like a Silicon Valley business. “You need a CEO, and a national CEO is what’s called a dictator,” Yarvin told an audience in 2012. “There’s no difference between the CEO and the dictator. Americans want to change the government. They have to get over the dictator-phobia.”

    “They’re gonna have to get over their ‘dictator-phobia,’” Maddow repeats. “What do you do with this level of radicalism trying to take over in Washington right now, and trying to convince the far right that they’ve got to stop being afraid of wielding this kind of power this way? What do you do with this at the debate tomorrow, in the campaign in general?” Maddow asks.
    “

  22. Are early voting and registration stats that are reportedly good news for Democrats any better for Dems than they were in 2020?

  24. This coming November 5th American election is a seminal moment in American history.
    Americans are either voting for democracy or dictatorship.
    If Americans want democracy, they will vote for Harris-Walz team or Democrats majority HOR and Senate.
    If they want dictatorship, they will vote for Trump-Vance team and Republican majority HOR and Senate.

  26. Thanks Sprocket –
    Also….
    “Trump spoke at a podium built out of bricks from a furniture store destroyed by the hurricane.”
    ——————————————–
    Oh my happy clappy aunt! Nobody with any trade experience, even the tiniest bit, put that brick wall together. WTF? Is it to hide his shoe lifts? Did he ask for it or did someone think they were doing his bidding. Sometimes, it is the sycophants that worry me more than Trump does.

  28. Kamala Harris is visiting disaster areas in Georgia and NC over the next 2 days – will look closely for any major variations to Trump’s visit…

  43. I don’t see any evidence of Walz being nervous despite what some have
    predicted. And even if he was, I’m not aware of a VP debate determining anything much.

  44. Why so much negativity generally about Tim Walz in here? I get it that some regulars are Josh Shapiro fans, but this continual Tim Walz dislike and the assumption that he is a drag on the Harris ticket – totally misguided.
    Oh, and Pete Buttigieg helped Walz prepare for this debate.

  46. Seems to me that both candidates are performing well. Vance is a good media performer, and an excellent debater, but Walz is holding his own, and is coming over as slightly more real. But barring any major gaffes, I’d say these two will battle out an honourable draw, and the debate will soon be forgotten, much like every other VP debate.

  47. Why so much negativity generally about Tim Walz in here? I get it that some regulars are Josh Shapiro fans, but this continual Tim Walz dislike and the assumption that he is a drag on the Harris ticket – totally misguided.
    Oh, and Pete Buttigieg helped Walz prepare for this debate.
    ————————
    Fair suck of the sauce bottle. People are allowed to be concerned about the credentials of a VP choice. I certainly was not a Shapiro fan. The talk is not continual.

    All the candidates had pros and cons. None of them stood out as ticking all the boxes. Walz was as good as any and better than most and imo, better than Shapiro as a match for Harris.

  49. Unfortunately, what Vance says makes sense to ordinary folks. Vance has calm demeanor. Walz appears to be a little bit agitated although his replies are reasonable and sane. But it is what it is.

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