Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Kamala Harris has a 49.0-46.3 lead over Donald Trump (49.2-46.2 in my previous US election article for The Conversation on Monday). In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Harris has at least a one-point lead in enough states to win the Electoral College by a 276-262 margin.
In Silver’s model, Harris has a 55% chance to win the Electoral College, up from 54% on Monday. She has been the favourite since last Friday after falling to a 35% win probability on September 9. Previously there had been a large gap between Silver’s and FiveThirtyEight’s models, with Harris favoured more at FiveThirtyEight. But this gap has nearly vanished, with Harris now a 56% win probability at FiveThirtyEight.
Monday’s Conversation article also covered elections for the US House of Representatives and Senate that will be held concurrently with the presidential election. If Harris wins, Democrats have a good chance to regain control of the House, but Republicans are likely to gain Senate control. Democrats are defending seats in three states Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020 and the Senate system favours Republicans owing to two senators per state.
Canada looking bleak for Liberals
Two Canadian federal by-elections occurred on September 16. In LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Quebec, 91 candidates stood as a protest against first-past-the-post, with most receiving very few votes. The left-wing separatist Quebec Bloc gained from the centre-left Liberals, winning by 28.0-27.2 with 26.1% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) and 11.6% for the Conservatives. At the 2021 federal election, results in this seat were 42.9% Liberal, 22.1% Quebec Bloc, 19.4% NDP and 7.5% Conservatives.
At the by-election in Elmwood-Transcona in Manitoba, the NDP retained against the Conservatives, but by a much reduced margin. The NDP defeated the Conservatives by 48.1-44.1 with 4.8% for the Liberals. In 2021, the NDP won this seat by 49.7-28.1 with 14.7% for the Liberals.
The next Canadian federal election is due by October 2025. FPTP will be used to elect all 343 seats, with 172 needed for a majority. The CBC poll tracker gives the Conservatives 42.9%, the Liberals 24.1%, the NDP 17.6% and the Quebec Bloc 7.8% (33.5% in Quebec). This would be a Conservative landslide with the seat projection giving them 218 seats, the Liberals 63, the Quebec Bloc 39 and the NDP 21. The Liberals have governed since they won the October 2015 election, though they were reduced to a minority government after the 2019 election.
UK, France, Germany and Sri Lanka
In my previous article in early September, I covered the lack of a honeymoon for UK Labour and PM Keir Starmer after winning the July 4 general election. In an Opinium poll taken last week, Starmer’s net approval had plunged 45 points since the first post-election Opinium poll in mid-July. His net approval is now -26, one point lower than for former Conservative PM Rishi Sunak.
At snap French parliamentary elections in early July, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39. On September 5, Macron appointed the conservative Michel Barnier as his new PM. Last Saturday, Barnier and Macron announced a new cabinet composed of mostly conservative ministers. The NFP is hostile to the new government, so its survival depends on National Rally abstaining on confidence motions.
I previously covered September 1 German state elections in Thuringia and Saxony where the far-right AfD made gains. At last Sunday’s state election in Brandenburg, the centre-left SPD won 32 of the 88 seats (up seven since 2019), the AfD 30 (up seven), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 14 (new) and the conservative CDU 12 (down three). The Greens and Left had won ten seats each in 2019, but were wiped out as neither cleared the 5% threshold.
At last Saturday’s Sri Lankan presidential election, the socialist candidate of the National People’s Power party defeated the establishment candidate by 55.9-44.1 after preferences. The NPP had won just 3.2% in 2019.
Decision Desk HQ/@thehill Battleground Poll Averages:
Arizona – 32 polls
Donald Trump (R): 48.4% (0.9)
Kamala Harris (D): 47.5%
[R+0.5 since last month]
North Carolina – 32 polls
Donald Trump (R): 48.4% (+0.5)
Kamala Harris (D): 47.9%
[R+0.3 since last month]
Pennsylvania – 54 polls
Kamala Harris (D): 49.3% (+1.3)
Donald Trump (R): 48.0%
[D+1.2 since last month]
Nevada – 20 polls
Kamala Harris (D): 48.2% (+1.8)
Donald Trump (R): 46.9%
[D+0.4 since last month]
Michigan – 34 polls
Kamala Harris (D): 48.8% (+1.1)
Donald Trump (R): 47.7%
[D+0.8 since last month]
Georgia – 33 polls
Donald Trump (R): 48.2% (+0.4)
Kamala Harris (D): 47.8%
[R-0.7 since last month]
Wisconsin – 38 polls
Kamala Harris (D): 49.8% (+2.5)
Donald Trump (R): 47.3%
[No Change]
https://elections2024.thehill.com/national/
Has Musk evened the ground game evens in the 7 battleground states?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/26/trump-voter-turnout-elon-musk-pac
”
Confessionssays:
Friday, September 27, 2024 at 7:09 am
Decision Desk HQ/@thehill Battleground Poll Averages:
Arizona – 32 polls
Donald Trump (R): 48.4% (0.9)
Kamala Harris (D): 47.5%
[R+0.5 since last month]
North Carolina – 32 polls
Donald Trump (R): 48.4% (+0.5)
Kamala Harris (D): 47.9%
[R+0.3 since last month]
Pennsylvania – 54 polls
Kamala Harris (D): 49.3% (+1.3)
Donald Trump (R): 48.0%
[D+1.2 since last month]
Nevada – 20 polls
Kamala Harris (D): 48.2% (+1.8)
Donald Trump (R): 46.9%
[D+0.4 since last month]
Michigan – 34 polls
Kamala Harris (D): 48.8% (+1.1)
Donald Trump (R): 47.7%
[D+0.8 since last month]
Georgia – 33 polls
Donald Trump (R): 48.2% (+0.4)
Kamala Harris (D): 47.8%
[R-0.7 since last month]
Wisconsin – 38 polls
Kamala Harris (D): 49.8% (+2.5)
Donald Trump (R): 47.3%
[No Change]
https://elections2024.thehill.com/national/
”
So Trump strengthened over a smidgen in AZ and NC, while lost ground in Blue wall states, NV (although I consider NV a blue wall states) and GA.
Georgia is pleasing. 🙂
All the other good ones for Kamala are as well, of course. 😀
Confessions @ #50 Friday, September 27th, 2024 – 7:03 am
I just don’t get how Eric Adams could put all that effort into winning the Mayoralty of NY City and then go, Ima gonna go down the corruption route! 😯
Harris blasts Trump for broken promises to union workers
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/26/2272995/-Harris-blasts-Trump-for-broken-promises-to-union-workers?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_6&pm_medium=web
“Vice President Kamala Harris chided Donald Trump on Wednesday night for repeatedly making promises to union workers at his “small” rallies that he failed to keep when he was president. Harris made her remarks during an interview with Stephanie Ruhle on MSNBC’s “The 11th Hour.”
“Donald Trump made a whole lot of promises that he did not meet, and one would argue, broke,” Harris said. “Part of the challenge—and I don’t disagree that it’s a challenge, you’ve got to own the vote of everybody—is reminding people of fact, regardless of what somebody says in a small rally somewhere.”
”
“During her interview, Harris specifically cited Trump’s 2017 promise to the residents of Lordstown, Ohio, that he would save the jobs of workers at a GM plant there slated for closure. Trump was so assured of his ability that he told people, “Don’t move. Don’t sell your house.”
The facility closed in 2019. Since then, a plant for electric vehicle battery manufacturer Ultium Cells has opened in the area employing 2,200 employees. The company has received incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act signed into law by President Joe Biden as part of an effort to revive American manufacturing via clean energy initiatives. The law faced unified opposition from the Republican Party in Congress and only secured passage via Harris’ swing vote in the Senate.”
Nevada seems inconsistent with other polling. But as the Emerson poll shows, it’s pretty much all tied up in the battlegrounds!
This one is brilliant:
Early voting underway in Virginia, with Loudoun County expected to set turnout records
https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/politics/elections/officials-expecting-to-set-early-voting-turnout-records-in-loudoun-county/65-1bb2afa5-c83b-431a-90ac-bfba1304f85d
”
Elections officials said since early voting started on Friday, there have been nearly 6,000 early voters out of the 305,000 registered voters in Loudoun County. That’s nearly 2% of the entire voting population.
The early voting turnout is surpassing by 26% each day compared to the 2020 presidential election, when Virginia began to allow people to vote early without an excuse. On tlhe first day of early voting, 2,352 people showed up to the polls versus 1,659 in 2020.”
From the New York Times:
“A two-story-high wall of water is forecast to swallow a large stretch of the Florida coastline overnight as Hurricane Helene rages ashore. Now a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 miles per hour, the storm is likely to make landfall before midnight as the strongest ever to strike the state’s Big Bend region.”
A separate report filed by John Keefe at 630 EST:
“Helene has grown to a large, Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 130 miles per hour, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Earlier forecasts for this storm didn’t anticipate it getting this strong.”
The Guardian
Hurricane Helene intensifies to category 4 storm as it approaches Florida
https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/26/hurricane-helene-update-florida?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17273946940083&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2024%2Fsep%2F26%2Fhurricane-helene-update-florida
“Much of Hurricane Helene’s gathering strength comes from the waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which have reached unprecedented high temperatures in recent years. In general, the ocean waters around Florida have also seen rising temperatures, making the state more susceptible to catastrophic storms.”
The Times’ Judson Jones highlights the historical significance of this hurricane Helene:
“The strongest hurricane to make landfall in the Big Bend of Florida hit in 1896, with winds of 125 miles per hour. Hurricane Idalia last year had winds of 115 miles per hour.”
From the Washington Post’s, Praveena Somasundaram, local officials really aren’t messing around:
“Officials in Taylor County, Fla., are asking residents who chose not to evacuate to write their name, birthday and other important information on their arm or leg in a permanent marker. This will help with identifying people and notifying their families during rescue efforts, the Taylor County sheriff’s office said in a Facebook post Thursday.”
Omar Comin’ @ #49 Friday, September 27th, 2024 – 4:22 am
What makes you think I haven’t been?
”
a rsays:
Friday, September 27, 2024 at 9:49 am
Biden won Henrico County, Loudoun County, Prince William County, and Fairfax County with 63.7%, 61.5%, 63.6%, and 69.9% inn 2020.
”
ar
My point is there are on average 200 new registered voters voting
and there is about 25% increase in early voting. That points to greater enthusiasm for voting.
The higher voting in above 4 counties you mentioned are the counties that will ensure Harris, Senate and HOR wins, if not more HOR seats
Mental health experts sound the alarm on Trump’s potential ‘cognitive decline’ as he’s ‘lost touch with reality’
Exclusive: After President Biden’s cognitive decline was heavily scrutinized, mental health experts tell The Independent they have similar concerns about Trump
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-mental-health-fears-cognitive-decline-b2615076.html
“Leading mental health experts, including a former White House doctor, have expressed alarm over Donald Trump’s mental faculties, suggesting he’s showing signs of “cognitive decline.”
Several experts told The Independent their concerns about the Republican presidential nominee are similar to those they had about President Joe Biden before he dropped out of the race, warning Trump appears to “have lost touch with reality,” as exhibited by the 78-year-old’s “rambling” speeches and “erratic” debate performance.”
“That was on full display at Monday night’s rally in Pennsylvania, where Trump was mocked for his “word salads.”He said of Kamala Harris: “She had the other interview with the other guy who was a nice guy I think from Philadelphia from Pennsylvania, he was a nice guy, he was asking her all these [inaudible] — the daily take — they don’t take like I do! Anybody wants to go, go what the hell differences they make — they have — and how dishonest was ABC…”
“
Joint news conference – Kamala Harris and Vlodimir Zelenskyy
https://www.youtube.com/live/QV39PySEdUs?si=y-n-tghC40dPiovx
‘Vice President Harris is holding her edge over former President Trump in Michigan and the race remains tight in Pennsylvania, according to a new poll from UMass Lowell and YouGov.
In Michigan, the poll found Harris leading Trump 48 percent to 43 percent overall, though the former president had the edge with independents, winning 36 percent support compared to Harris’s 29 percent.
Most Michigan voters are locked in on their candidate and said they won’t change their mind about who they will vote for in November.
Michigan is one of several key swing states both parties are looking to secure.
Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) is headed this weekend to Ann Arbor to campaign and attend the Michigan-Minnesota football game.
According to a similar poll, the race is closer in Pennsylvania, another critical battleground state that could help determine the winner.
In the same poll, Harris earned 48 percent in Pennsylvania, while Trump trailed closely with 46 percent support.
Four percent said they are undecided but like Michigan, Pennsylvania voters who are casting ballots for Harris and Trump said not much could change their mind before Election Day.
According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, Michigan and Pennsylvania are both toss-ups. Harris has a 64 percent chance of winning the Great Lake state and a 53 percent chance of winning the Keystone state. Nationally, Harris has a 55 percent chance of winning the presidency.
The surveys were conducted Sept. 11-19. The Michigan poll was conducted with 650 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4.37 percentage points. The Pennsylvania poll was conducted with 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.’
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4901092-harris-trump-michigan-pennsylvania/
Senate Democrats boost Colin Allred’s bid against Ted Cruz with multimillion dollar investment
https://www.texastribune.org/2024/09/26/senate-democrats-colin-allred-texas-florida/?utm_campaign=trib-social-buttons&utm_source=copy&utm_medium=social
“U.S. Senate Democrats are sending millions to Texas in a new round of investments to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced Thursday.
The DSCC will include Texas in a “multimillion dollar” push to fund television ads on behalf of U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, who is challenging Cruz. The investment will also target Sen. Rick Scott in Florida, the party’s other major flip target. The DSCC declined to further specify the dollar amount going to Texas.
“Senate Democrats are expanding the map and going on offense,” DSCC Chair Sen. Gary Peters said in a statement. “All cycle long the DSCC has been preparing to take advantage of Sens. Cruz and Scott’s damaged standings in their states – and now our efforts in Texas and Florida are accelerating.”
The DSCC named Texas and Florida as its top flip targets earlier this cycle, including Texas in a $79 million ad reservation and funding staff in the state. But the group has so far put protecting its vulnerable incumbents at the top of its to-do list. Democrats need to defend several difficult seats this year in Republican or swing states to maintain their majority.”
Why is DSCC sending so much money to Texas?
Hardly know the guy…
Sept. 26, 2024, 7:12 p.m. ET1 hour ago
Michael Gold
At the end of his news conference at Trump Tower on Thursday, Trump was asked if he would pull his endorsement from Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson of North Carolina, the Republican candidate for governor there who faces a scandal over a CNN report that linked him to graphic and offensive comments on a porn site. Trump said only, “I don’t know the situation,” drawing criticism from the Harris campaign given that the Robinson story has been the focus of headlines for the last week.
Stand by your man…
Sept. 26, 2024, 8:52 p.m. ET11 minutes ago
Eduardo Medina
Mark Robinson, the Republican nominee for governor in North Carolina, released a new ad on Thursday night that opens with a greeting from his wife, Yolanda Robinson. The clip dramatically cuts to a montage of TV news anchors discussing the explosive CNN report that linked him to racist and antisemitic comments on a porn site. Then, Yolanda Robinson says, “Forget what you have heard,” adding that her husband is a caring family man. “He is known sometimes to raise his voice and raise a ruckus,” she says. “But it is all because of the passion he has to protect North Carolina and to protect you.”
sprocket_ @ #73 Friday, September 27th, 2024 – 11:04 am
Complicit, thy name is Yolanda.
How could she do that when she knows her husband had an affair with her sister!?! And did horrible sexual things with her sister!?! How venal must you be!?! As a pastor’s wife, what’s more. They aren’t Christians. They’re just grifters.
A new set of Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls finds Kamala Harris “has all but neutralized Donald Trump’s advantage on economic issues, fueling an upbeat showing for the Democrat in battleground states.”
Arizona: Harris 50%, Trump 47%
Michigan: Harris 50%, Trump 47%
Nevada: Harris 52%, Trump 45%
North Carolina: Harris 50%, Trump 48%
Pennsylvania: Harris 51%, Trump 46%
Wisconsin: Harris 51%, Trump 48%
Georgia: Harris 49%, Trump 49%
Across all seven swing states, Harris holds a 50% to 47% lead over Trump.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-09-26/harris-holds-thin-lead-over-trump-in-swing-state-poll-election-2024?leadSource=uverify%20wall
Lots of battleground state polls today..
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/09/Bloomberg_Swing_States_Wave_12-1.pdf
Vice President Kamala Harris has all but neutralized Donald Trump’s advantage on economic issues, fueling an upbeat showing for the Democrat in battleground states where she and the former president are locked in a tight race about 40 days until the election.
A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of swing states shows Harris now leading among likely voters by 7 percentage points in Nevada, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 3 points in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, and 2 points in North Carolina. The two are tied in Georgia.
And despite being a Murdoch propaganda outfit, FoxNews (like our own NewsPoll) runs legit polls. Dedicated viewer Donald Trump won’t like this latest set all that much..
Arizona
Trump 51
Harris 48
Gallego 55
Kari Lake 42
https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-voters-choice-flipped-arizona-since-last-month
Georgia
Trump 48
Harris 51
https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-voters-choice-flipped-arizona-since-last-month
Snap there Hugo
Great minds, Sprocket!
Does anyone have any comment on the seeming randomness of US election polls?
Any views on the best current overview of US polling. Trends for Harris look good to my perception, but then quite terrible polls appear suggesting the opposite…
It is getting to the point where people in the swing states are going to each be polled a few times a day….. Be interesting to see if there is much difference between Breakfast, Lunch and Dinnertime. /joke
If the National polls are generally correct Harris has a 5% lead and that should be enough to win the electoral vote. The few times when a candidate has won the popular vote but not the electoral college the margin has not been great. Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1%, Gore won by 0.5%, and going way back Tilden won by 3% in 1876 (But this gets messy as Colorado didn’t hold a popular vote and parts of the South were very one sided).
If Harris wins the popular vote by 5%, she will almost certainly win the EC.
Clicks = $$$. A closely contested race generates a lot more clicks than a one-sided race. Whether or not the race is actually closely contested is immaterial.
Vested interests, and all that.
I doubt they are random. Most of them cluster within the MOE. Statistically there will always be outliers.
Socrates says:
Friday, September 27, 2024 at 11:49 am
Does anyone have any comment on the seeming randomness of US election polls?
Any views on the best current overview of US polling. Trends for Harris look good to my perception, but then quite terrible polls appear suggesting the opposite…
I would have thought that the polls are all too-clustered to be derived from genuinely random samples. There’s not enough variation between them rather than too much. The samples taken are very small. They are ‘worked’ to reflect the makeup of the electorate/s. The demographic composition and voting inclinations of the samples are widely known, so the worked polls produce similar results.
As well, since voting is not compulsory, the samples will be sieved to screen out those classified as non-voters. This pool makes up 1/3 of the voting-age population. If turn-out rises significantly among this cohort they will likely determine the results in close-run contests. It might well be that these cohorts are not well-sampled at all – they are after all ‘not voters’ – in which case the polls and the actual results will be quite different. This will not mean the polls were “wrong”. It will just mean they didn’t draw samples from all eventual voters but rather from an incomplete and unpredictable array of voter sets.
I think the polling data is interesting and fun to watch, but it’s far from conclusive.
All that said, it’s encouraging to see Harris improving. This in itself will have two effects: it will help mobilise more support for Harris; and it will de-motivate MAGA voters. In a two-horse race with voluntary voting, it makes sense to back a winner and ignore a loser. Only winning votes matter in the end.
As well, it’s also worth noting that polls are not necessarily predictive. They are refracted statements of the past.
The randomness in the polling is most likely due to how the polling is being conducted.
If a poll is conducted by random phone calls, it is likely to biased to those who still answer their phones to random numbers. Few poll companies still use this as a method.
Most use a random sample of a pool of voters they have gotten via other means to sign up to being polled. How well these pools match what the population and more importantly the population that votes is an issue. They might have too many or too few old people or black people or religious people etc. No two poll companies are going to have the same mix.
Also if the pool of people who can be polled is not too much larger than the poll (say 5 or 10 times larger) than it is highly likely that people are going to get polled more than once during the election. This by itself will influence people as they might concentrate on the election more.
In the end, no single poll can be “right” even if it is exactly how people vote in November. If polls are trending in one direction then the odds are more likely than not they will be “right” in a sense of getting the winner correct but the margins could be all over the shop.
The reason that polling in Australia is more “stable” is we only have a handful of polling companies and we don’t really have an issue with people not voting. That removes one of the key issues that the American polling companies face.
There are three trends that are encouraging:
Strengthening polled support for Harris
Increased early voting, where Democratic voters are more highly represented than Republican voters
Higher rates of voting by newly registered voters, which will also favour Harris.
The latter two are more pronounced than the shifts in polling, suggesting that the polls are not fully measuring support for Harris.
This all makes a lot of sense to me. Only about 28-29% of the US adult population are MAGA-attached. Trump has done his best to alienate the remaining 71-72% of the population. New voting support will coalesce with Harris. Voters are not stupid. They will act to protect their constitutional system and their legal rights. They will reject Trump and the dysfunction he promises to install.
Socrates @ #77 Friday, September 27th, 2024 – 11:49 am
I believe that the various pollsters are having difficulty in deciding on weighting factors as they attempt to ‘correct’ their data from small samples, to reflect the ‘true’ demographic make-up of those voters that will actually vote in this election. For example the reported massive increase in registration amongst young people, and black and latino women are, I believe, likely to render incorrect weighting proportions based on the actual voting cohort in the various states in previous elections. The pollsters are swimming in uncharted waters, and coming to differing conclusions about the location of shoals and deep spots. We will only find out after the election.
My feeling is that a vastly superior ground-game strategy, plus funding and campaign staff numbers to carry it out, will result in a high proportion of Democratic favourable new voters actually being enabled to vote.
( I would remark that I have come across a similar type of problem in building, and continuously modifying the algorithms in a sales forecasting model for bread varieties, for a largish manufacturer, when trying to use historical data for projections. Pumpkin seeds?! 9 grains?! Low GI?! Aldi?!)
Variation in polls is entirely normal, and speaks to the different methodology that di9fferent pollsters use. To create a usable poll, a polling form must first form a view of what the real life electorate looks like, eg 43% Republicans 45% Democrats, 12% independents, 51% women, 49% men, different age bands, different levels of education and income, and so on – and in the US, a key measure is likely turn-out. They come up with these models by using census data, previous election results, and other demographic markers. Pollsters have no option but to do this, as it’s the only statistically sound way to ensure an accurate poll, especially in a era where all pollsters are finding it harder to get people to answer their polls.
However, these models vary from pollster to pollster, and some over-weight or underweight one sub-group or another (and in 2016 and to a lesser extent in 2020, they underweighted likely Trump voters, particularly lower education ones). This is what they talk about when it’s suggested that Siena/ NY Times, for example, seems to have a more Trumpy/ GOP lean in this election cycle, which is one reason why the results they are getting are friendlier to Trump and the GOP than other pollsters. This doesn’t mean that they are wrong, necessarily (and we won’t really know until after the election results are in), just that their model assumes a slightly bigger proportion of Republican voters than other pollsters.
We should always remember that polls are a) a best guess by the relevant pollsters based on the 1000 people they’ve spoken to, and b) a snapshot of a moment in time. This is why averaging polls tends to end up being more instructive than worrying about individual polls. And polling averages now put Harris ahead, albeit not by much, but come election day, it’s as likely as not that the swing states will mostly go one way or the other, and thus the election itself.
This youngish Progressive commentator analyses some recent polls realistically from an Electoral College perspective(Hint: Kamala Harris really needs Nevada):
https://youtu.be/5te8MYek5M8?si=rF9OQBs8Kek9bSIQ
Stooge @ #83 Friday, September 27th, 2024 – 12:27 pm
Unfortunately, a significant proportion of them are just that.
Commenting on target markets today the point was made that the Harris campaign might have an underlying advantage due to the fact of their superiority wrt female voters plus the fact that women are more likely to go vote. Whereas, the Trump campaign is targeting young men this time and are ahead with them but they have less propensity to actually make the effort to go out and vote. So they may tell pollsters they are for Trump, but going the last mile for him will be more of a stretch for them than for women voters for Harris. Hence a likely disparity between the polls and election day exit polls. Which Trump will no doubt try to exploit.
Early, absent and postal voting are very good things for democracy. They make it possible for more voters to give effect to their rights. This will favour the Democratic plurality.
There are two fundamental further tasks for the Democratic Party. One is to challenge the Republicans in their strongholds. And then the other is to reform the electoral college so that elections really are decided on the basis of one vote/one value. It’s time the US modernised itself.
yabba says:
Friday, September 27, 2024 at 12:32 pm
Stooge @ #83 Friday, September 27th, 2024 – 12:27 pm
Voters are not stupid.
Unfortunately, a significant proportion of them are just that.
Oh, I don’t think US voters are any more or less stupid than any other human population. Voting intentions are largely determined by individual belief systems. These operate in each of us and are largely not susceptible to inspection, interrogation or easy amendment. The MAGA-attracted have been encouraged to express grievance…to act from mistrust, alienation and fear. These are powerful mobilisers. In saying this, a large part of my own reactions to,Trump arises from fear as well. He is crazy. There is a lot to fear from him.
Well, half the voters are below median intelligence.
Stooge, I think that voting should be in person and on election day as much as possible. Money should be invested so that there are ample poll booths and staff to ensure this happens. The day should be a full public holiday and anyone working should be given ample time to access either a fixed or mobile booth.
We are losing our commons. Election day is one of the few left. Rags and riches, 16yos and 90yos, should ideally be queuing up together then sharing a snag. Aged care homes would ideally have free buses available to get them to polling booths and failing that, mobile booths made available at such locations for those unable to make the trip (including hospitals etc).
Call it Civics Day. Or Citizens Day or somesuch.
Is that all too Kumbaya?
I dont disagree, but to reframe it, humans are quite intelligent, so even being below the median point doesnt make you dumb.
Now, watching Fox, that makes you dumb.
I would not say Fox News makes you dumb – it makes you biased and ignorant of other points of view.
Plus quite intelligent people have been known to fall down the worm holes of conspiracy.
But they do put warning labels on hair dryers so you don’t use them in the shower for a reason.
Speaking of dumb however – Mayor Eric Adams of New York. It wasn’t like he was taking bundles of cash to do favours for the Turkish government. He was accepting flights and accommodation which are so very easily tracible. He was so keen on flying Turkish Airways for the free flights, he wanted to fly to Chile via Istanbul from New York.
The area where Hurricane Helene is making land fall is very shallow, i.e no cliffs or deep. The hurricane is about to make land fall any moment.
So there is nothing to stop the huge volume of water that is driven from the sea into the land. The water may be pushed deep into the land. Understand that the waves are 20 feet high and the wind speed could be 125 miles/ hr
B. S. Fairman @ #95 Friday, September 27th, 2024 – 12:46 pm
Securing a $2b loan from them would have been fine.
Ven, I just saw that it has gone to a Cat4.
The whole of Florida is pretty flat. It all floods easily.
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C@tmommasays:
Friday, September 27, 2024 at 11:08 am
sprocket_ @ #73 Friday, September 27th, 2024 – 11:04 am
Stand by your man…
Sept. 26, 2024, 8:52 p.m. ET11 minutes ago
Eduardo Medina
Mark Robinson, the Republican nominee for governor in North Carolina, released a new ad on Thursday night that opens with a greeting from his wife, Yolanda Robinson. The clip dramatically cuts to a montage of TV news anchors discussing the explosive CNN report that linked him to racist and antisemitic comments on a porn site. Then, Yolanda Robinson says, “Forget what you have heard,” adding that her husband is a caring family man. “He is known sometimes to raise his voice and raise a ruckus,” she says. “But it is all because of the passion he has to protect North Carolina and to protect you.”
Complicit, thy name is Yolanda.
How could she do that when she knows her husband had an affair with her sister!?! And did horrible sexual things with her sister!?! How venal must you be!?! As a pastor’s wife, what’s more. They aren’t Christians. They’re just grifters.
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Was Robinson a pastor before becoming full time politician?
If so, then his porn viewing and being a peeping Tom are even more grose.