US presidential election minus six weeks

Kamala Harris a slight favourite to win in Nate Silver’s model. Also covered: two Canadian by-elections, a dreadful poll for Keir Starmer, France’s new Prime Minister, a German state election and a socialist wins in Sri Lanka.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Kamala Harris has a 49.0-46.3 lead over Donald Trump (49.2-46.2 in my previous US election article for The Conversation on Monday). In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Harris has at least a one-point lead in enough states to win the Electoral College by a 276-262 margin.

In Silver’s model, Harris has a 55% chance to win the Electoral College, up from 54% on Monday. She has been the favourite since last Friday after falling to a 35% win probability on September 9. Previously there had been a large gap between Silver’s and FiveThirtyEight’s models, with Harris favoured more at FiveThirtyEight. But this gap has nearly vanished, with Harris now a 56% win probability at FiveThirtyEight.

Monday’s Conversation article also covered elections for the US House of Representatives and Senate that will be held concurrently with the presidential election. If Harris wins, Democrats have a good chance to regain control of the House, but Republicans are likely to gain Senate control. Democrats are defending seats in three states Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020 and the Senate system favours Republicans owing to two senators per state.

Canada looking bleak for Liberals

Two Canadian federal by-elections occurred on September 16. In LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Quebec, 91 candidates stood as a protest against first-past-the-post, with most receiving very few votes. The left-wing separatist Quebec Bloc gained from the centre-left Liberals, winning by 28.0-27.2 with 26.1% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) and 11.6% for the Conservatives. At the 2021 federal election, results in this seat were 42.9% Liberal, 22.1% Quebec Bloc, 19.4% NDP and 7.5% Conservatives.

At the by-election in Elmwood-Transcona in Manitoba, the NDP retained against the Conservatives, but by a much reduced margin. The NDP defeated the Conservatives by 48.1-44.1 with 4.8% for the Liberals. In 2021, the NDP won this seat by 49.7-28.1 with 14.7% for the Liberals.

The next Canadian federal election is due by October 2025. FPTP will be used to elect all 343 seats, with 172 needed for a majority. The CBC poll tracker gives the Conservatives 42.9%, the Liberals 24.1%, the NDP 17.6% and the Quebec Bloc 7.8% (33.5% in Quebec). This would be a Conservative landslide with the seat projection giving them 218 seats, the Liberals 63, the Quebec Bloc 39 and the NDP 21. The Liberals have governed since they won the October 2015 election, though they were reduced to a minority government after the 2019 election.

UK, France, Germany and Sri Lanka

In my previous article in early September, I covered the lack of a honeymoon for UK Labour and PM Keir Starmer after winning the July 4 general election. In an Opinium poll taken last week, Starmer’s net approval had plunged 45 points since the first post-election Opinium poll in mid-July. His net approval is now -26, one point lower than for former Conservative PM Rishi Sunak.

At snap French parliamentary elections in early July, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39. On September 5, Macron appointed the conservative Michel Barnier as his new PM. Last Saturday, Barnier and Macron announced a new cabinet composed of mostly conservative ministers. The NFP is hostile to the new government, so its survival depends on National Rally abstaining on confidence motions.

I previously covered September 1 German state elections in Thuringia and Saxony where the far-right AfD made gains. At last Sunday’s state election in Brandenburg, the centre-left SPD won 32 of the 88 seats (up seven since 2019), the AfD 30 (up seven), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 14 (new) and the conservative CDU 12 (down three). The Greens and Left had won ten seats each in 2019, but were wiped out as neither cleared the 5% threshold.

At last Saturday’s Sri Lankan presidential election, the socialist candidate of the National People’s Power party defeated the establishment candidate by 55.9-44.1 after preferences. The NPP had won just 3.2% in 2019.

483 comments on “US presidential election minus six weeks”

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  1. He’s harking back to when things were “great”. It’s a form of nostalgia, his supporters treat this as more like a metaphor than an actual call for Carson to go back on the air. It’s really a call to go back to a simpler past when there were lots of well paying blue collar jobs, people knew their place and America was number one.

    Trump gets a free pass, and free third-party handwaving explanations about how Trump probably knows Carson is long dead and was making a subtle and strategically sound metaphor.

  2. a r @ #1 Thursday, September 26th, 2024 – 1:42 pm

    He’s harking back to when things were “great”. It’s a form of nostalgia, his supporters treat this as more like a metaphor than an actual call for Carson to go back on the air. It’s really a call to go back to a simpler past when there were lots of well paying blue collar jobs, people knew their place and America was number one.

    Trump gets a free pass, and free third-party handwaving explanations about how Trump probably knows Carson is long dead and was making a subtle and strategically sound metaphor.

    I have a very, very, very cunning plan.
    Is it as cunning as a fox what used to be Professor of Cunning at Oxford University but has moved on and is now working for the U.N. at the High Commission of International Cunning Planning?
    Yes it is.

  3. Free Gear Keir – man of the working class people, which includes accepting GBP20,ooo donation of in-kind accommodation so his son could do exams (no, really) and thousands in cash for clothes and glasses (no, really). All declared, so it’s all above board.

    Lower than Rishi – impressive.

    The poor suckers have 5 years of this to endure.

  5. Yup. Conservatives and MAGA types doing give a shit about their candidate. Thy
    Would happily vote for a sex assaulting, certified moron with convictions as long as he/she isn’t a …… progressive advocating for a fairer go for everyone.

    It was ever thus. I’ve made it (even if it was luck, inheritance or birth right), but giving the rest of you a helping hand? No way.

    Progressives will never learn. Lord, I know, I’m one.

    -and as for Christian nationalists…. They’re prepared to a vote for a bloke who has demonstrably breached at least 9 of their 10 commandments as long as he pretends to be pro-life.

  6. It is possible to deprogram cult members.

    But to do so the first step is always to isolate an individual from the rest of the cult.

    Deprogramming them in situ seems to be almost impossible.

    Although some individuals do become alienated from their cults and leave them voluntarily. The best way to address Trump’s followers is probably to apply techniques used in deprogramming.

    I am not sure how that might work during a POTUS campaign.

  7. So according to Silver’s model, Harris has a 55% chance of winning the Electoral College. FiveThirtyEight has Harris with an even better 56% chance of winning the election.

    I have just finished my searches on the betting markets. These are the fair dinkum probabilities as they currently stand for the outcome of the election:

    Harris 50.5%
    Trump 49.5%

    Momentum swings back to Trump.

    The betting markets are undecided, and the pollsters don’t have a clue.

    It’s there for the taking, the economy could be the difference for voters.

  8. There have been two instances with the betting activities that I have found strange in this election:

    1. During the Democratic Convention, it was Trump who firmed solidly in the betting.

    2. During the second debate (live), it was Harris who firmed solidly in the betting.

    The amount of money bet on this election is at record levels, (without wanting to promote any betting agency), Betfair in Australia alone has total matched bets of a staggering $140 million.

    Betting agencies plan to profit a small percentage of turnover regardless of the result. A small percentage of such high turnover is a lot of money.

    I wonder if there has been an element of market manipulation to stimulate the supporters of either candidate into having a bet?

  9. Hmmmm…. I will stick with my original totally uneducated guess.

    The result will hang on the outcome of the battle between turnout and voter suppression.

  13. Victoria

    “Interestingly the media is now starting to report that Florida can indeed flip blue.
    Took them long enough.”

    They’ll get over the mirage soon enough.

  14. Two contrasting polls for GOP Senate fortunes this November:

    1. The good news for Republicans

    Montana – RMG Research 12-19 September

    Tester (D) 43% (-6 from a month earlier)
    Sheehy (R) 50% (+6 from a month earlier)

    2. The bad news for Republicans

    Nebraska – SurveyUSA 20-23 September

    Osborn (I) 45% (+7% from 4 weeks earlier)
    Fischer (R) 44% (+5% from 4 weeks earlier)

    This looks like the first one to show Osborn, who I guess would more likely caucus with Dems, ahead but other pollsters have been showing a close race.

  15. There’s been some interesting House of Reps polling for marginal seats in California by CEPP this week.

    CA-13: DEM 46/45 REP (2022: REP 50.2/49.8 DEM)
    CA-27: DEM 48/46 REP (2022: REP 53.2/46.8 DEM)
    CA-45: DEM 48/46 REP (2022: REP 52.4/47.6 DEM)
    CA-47: REP 49/46 DEM (2022: DEM 51.7/48.3 REP)*

    (*California-47 is an Open seat since the incumbent Katie Porter ran for the Senate Primary, but lost to Adam Schiff, so the seat is instead being contested by Democratic State Senator Dave Min and Republican Scott Baugh.)

  16. ”
    Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, September 26, 2024 at 3:13 pm
    It is possible to deprogram cult members.

    But to do so the first step is always to isolate an individual from the rest of the cult.

    Deprogramming them in situ seems to be almost impossible.
    ”

    It is as if they caught a pandemic and don’t have a anti-dote for that at the moment.
    The fever has to break at least and that can be achieved only by defeating Trump comprehensively.

  18. Centre: Betfair in Australia alone has total matched bets of a staggering $140 million.

    Me: WOW!!!!!
    People either don’t seem to understand what is at stake or don’t care. As I Pandemic is sweeping USUKA countries.

  19. As if Americans need another reminder that the GOP majority is a disaster when it comes to running the House of Representatives, the recent negotiations over a government spending bill showed their utter dysfunction—again.

    “It’s highly disappointing that, after two years in the majority, we have virtually nothing to show the American people in return for them trusting us with the majority,” said Rep. Bob Good of Virginia in an interview with NOTUS. “In other words, every significant piece of legislation that’s become law has been passed with predominant Democrat votes in the House.”

    The party famous for its “pull yourself up by your bootstraps” ethos is shockingly good at avoiding any actual work. Instead, House Republicans are busy eating their own and proving they suck at governing.

    As the 118th Congress’ second (and final) session comes to a close, House Speaker Mike Johnson is navigating tricky waters. Tension between the far-right faction and more moderate Republicans surfaced once again as they grappled with funding allocations, the specter of a government shutdown, and GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump’s continuous meddling.

    The GOP’s ineptness is not new. Even with a majority, Republicans haven’t found a way to govern effectively and pass a conservative policy agenda. The New York Times reported that the Republican-led House passed only 27 bills that became law in 2023, despite bringing a staggering 724 votes to the floor during that calendar year.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/us/politics/house-republicans-laws-year.html

    Governing has become either a joke or abuse of power for Tories across USUKA countries.
    No thought for the betterment of the people.
    The most amazing thing about this is that even after disastrous Tory governments across USUKA countries in the last 25 years, people still vote for them.

  20. Mitch McConnell is the latest to trash Trump plan that will raise prices

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/25/2272765/-Mitch-McConnell-is-the-latest-to-trash-Trump-plan-that-will-raise-prices?pm_source=ICYMI&pm_campaign=ICYMI09252024

    “Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell panned Donald Trump’s plans to raise tariffs on many goods, decrying it as a policy that would raise prices for middle-class consumers.

    McConnell, who has endorsed Trump, was asked about Trump’s tariff ideas during a media availability at the Capitol on Tuesday.

    “I’m not a fan of tariffs, they raise prices for American consumers. I’m more of a free trade kind of Republican that remembers how many jobs are created by the exports that we engage in,” McConnell said.

    Trump has described tariffs as “the greatest thing ever invented” and called himself “a tariff man.” Trump has said that if elected to another term he would impose tariffs on many goods and would use the power of the presidency to do so even if Congress opposed him.”

    Why is it surprising that McConnell endorses Trump when even John Howard doesn’t endorse Harris although his best mate Dick Cheney endorses her.
    Downer said that he will close his eyes and vote for Trump if he is an American because he is Republican candidate.
    Michael Kroger virtually kissed Trump broad backside on live TV.

  22. #6 538-ranked pollster Marist new polling in Georgia is line ball…

    Georgia is a tossup between Trump (50%) and Harris (49%) among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Most voters with a candidate preference for President (90%) strongly support their choice of candidate.

    Harris (51%) leads Trump (46%) by 5 points among independents who are likely to vote. Biden carried independents by 9 points in 2020 according to the 2020 Presidential Exit Poll.

    Harris leads Trump among those who say they plan to vote at an early voting location (54% for Harris to 45% for Trump) and among those who say they will vote by mail or absentee ballot (62% for Harris to 35% for Trump). Trump (60%) is ahead of Harris (39%) among voters who expect to vote in-person on Election Day.

    Trump (66%) outpaces Harris (34%) among white voters while Harris (86%) leads Trump (13%) among Black voters.

    A 24-point gender gap exists. Harris (54%) leads Trump (44%) among women while Trump (56%) leads Harris (42%) among men. In 2020, a 21-point gender gap existed.

    Harris is +6 points over Trump among GenZ/Millennials. Trump and Harris are competitive among older generations.

    https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/u-s-presidential-contest-georgia-september-2024/

  23. France

    “Last Saturday, Barnier and Macron announced a new cabinet composed of mostly conservative ministers.”

    Probably should read that the new names were mainly conservatives. The above comment overlooks that many ministers – particularly in the key offices of state – remain in post. These are from the centre as Macron’s Ensemble party is.

    The far left can rant and rave all they like, but there is a clear anti-left (and certainly a big anti-La Insoumise) majority in the French parliament. Spinning that they won the election and therefore had a right to govern may or may not be effective politics, but is divorced from reality.

    It’s saying something when La Insoumise and its firebrand leader are too extreme for their colleagues in the NFP alliance from the Communist Party!

  24. And Marist poll a coin flip in North Carolina..


    Harris (49%) and Trump (49%) are competitive among likely voters in North Carolina. Among those who have a candidate preference for President, 91% strongly support their choice of candidate.

    Harris (48%) and Trump (48%) are tied among independents who are likely to vote. Biden won independents by 4 points in 2020, according to the 2020 Presidential Exit Poll.

    Trump has the advantage against Harris among those who plan to vote in-person on Election Day (61% for Trump to 38% for Harris). Harris leads Trump among those who plan to vote at an early voting location (57% for Harris to 42% for Trump). Harris (62%) is also ahead of Trump (35%) among those who say they plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot.

    While Trump (59%) leads Harris (40%) among white voters, Harris is doing better than Biden did among this group in 2020. Biden received 33% of the white vote in 2020. Harris (86%) outpaces Trump (13%) among Black voters statewide but underperforms the 92% Biden achieved in 2020.

    A 19-point gender gap exists with Trump (54%) leading Harris (44%) among men and Harris (54%) leading Trump (45%) among women. The gender gap has widened from 16 points four years ago

    https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/u-s-presidential-contest-north-carolina-september-2024/

  25. And to round out the toss-up/line-ball even Steven’s race in the Sunbelt – Marist has Arizona in the same basket…

    Trump receives the support of 50% of Arizona likely voters to 49% for Harris. Most voters with a candidate preference for President (90%) strongly support their choice of candidate.

    Harris (51%) edges Trump (47%) among independents who are likely to vote. According to the 2020 Presidential Exit Poll, President Joe Biden carried independents by 9 points (53% for Biden to 44% for Trump) four years ago.

    Trump (51%) edges Harris (48%) among white voters, a group he carried by 6 points in 2020. Trump (51%) and Harris (49%) are competitive among Latinos. Harris significantly underperforms Biden’s 2020 support among this group. Biden carried Latinos by 24 points in 2020.

    Trump receives majority support among GenX (58%) and the Silent/Greatest Generation (54%). Harris has majority support among GenZ/Millennials (52%) and Baby Boomers (54%).

    The gender gap in Arizona has widened. Harris has the support of 52% of women to 47% for Trump. Trump (53%) leads Harris (46%) among men. In 2020, a 5-point gender gap existed.

    https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/u-s-presidential-contest-arizona-september-2024/

  26. To summarise Marist..

    Arizona
    Trump 50
    Harris 49

    North Carolina
    Trump 49
    Harris 49

    Georgia
    Trump 50
    Harris 49

    Trump needs to run the table

  28. fwiw, Marist was spot on in 2020 in Arizona.

    But 7pts out in North Carolina where they had Biden up by 6. And they were similarly out nationally.

  29. umichvoter ️‍
    @umichvoter
    NEW 2024 Asian American Voters Survey by National Opinion Research Center

    Harris 66%
    Trump 28%

    The poll in April-May showed Biden at 45 and Trump at 31
    8:49 PM · Sep 24, 2024
    ·
    305.5K
    Views

  30. Sprocket: Marist Arizona poll
    “Trump (51%) and Harris (49%) are competitive among Latinos. Harris significantly underperforms Biden’s 2020 support among this group. Biden carried Latinos by 24 points in 2020.”

    Something weird about this poll numbers. Why is there a 26% swing to Trump when he wants to deport them?

  32. Ven @ #30 Thursday, September 26th, 2024 – 6:39 pm

    Sprocket: Marist Arizona poll
    “Trump (51%) and Harris (49%) are competitive among Latinos. Harris significantly underperforms Biden’s 2020 support among this group. Biden carried Latinos by 24 points in 2020.”

    Something weird about this poll numbers. Why is there a 26% swing to Trump when he wants to deport them?

    Some Latinos have lived in the USA for a very long time. They don’t think they will be the ones deported. They don’t care about the others.

  34. FUBAR @ #3 Thursday, September 26th, 2024 – 2:37 pm

    Free Gear Keir – man of the working class people, which includes accepting GBP20,ooo donation of in-kind accommodation so his son could do exams (no, really) and thousands in cash for clothes and glasses (no, really). All declared, so it’s all above board.

    Lower than Rishi – impressive.

    The poor suckers have 5 years of this to endure.

    FUBAR take your Conservative gloating to the Main Thread.

  36. “take your Conservative gloating”

    Being in opposition for 5 years after having your arse handed to you is quite the gloat. No-one will care about the current favourability rating in 12 months.

  37. In the context of the US election, crypto is stupid.
    It’s an all or nothing bet, as the useless trump sons are shilling it for all it’s worth.
    Which is nothing.

  40. @Confessions at 8:15pm

    I’ve heard that Nate Silver has pretty much aligned with Peter Thiel, who is a chief backer of JD Vance, so I don’t hold him in much regard other than being a MAGA stooge.

  43. Joe Hockey on Donald Trump:

    Donald Trump’s economic policies are like “handing a box of chocolates to a four-year-old”, former treasurer and ambassador to the United States Joe Hockey told the National Press Club.

    The comment came after a conversation on the former US president’s “expansionary” economic policies. Hockey said:

    ‘You’ll see the US dollar drop most particularly on the Trump because there’s no handbrake. It is singularly the worst election campaign in living memory for anyone that cares about economics. It is ground zero in terms of making promises that are unfunded and probably cannot be delivered. But who knows? I think Donald Trump’s policy platform is absurd in its largess, and I’ve said it to President Trump, he can’t keep spending.

    He knows that his policies are not only inflationary but they’re hugely expansionary. It’s like sugar here. It’s handing a box of chocolates to a four-year-old.’

  44. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, September 26, 2024 at 10:11 pm
    Joe Hockey on Donald Trump:

    Donald Trump’s economic policies are like “handing a box of chocolates to a four-year-old”, former treasurer and ambassador to the United States Joe Hockey told the National Press Club
    ”

    Is Joe Hockey no longer a member of Australian Liberal party? 🙂

  45. This may be the least surprising October surprise in American history. In a real democracy, this would end Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. The Trump family is a clear national security threat and this should be the nail in their traitorous coffin.

    “A private equity firm owned by Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law, has been paid $157m in fees since 2021 without returning any profit to investors, according to a US Senate inquiry…

    The paper reported that Kushner was using contacts cultivated while working as a White House adviser during Trump’s presidency…

    “Affinity’s investors may not be motivated by commercial considerations, but rather the opportunity to funnel foreign government money to members of President Trump’s family, namely Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump.”

    Wyden said the foreign investors’ fees included $87m from the government of Saudi Arabia…

    The Senate committee says there is a fifth “mystery foreign investor that Affinity has declined to identify”…

    It is not only Democrats who have questioned Affinity’s arrangements. James Comer, the Republican chair of the House oversight committee, told CNN last year that Kushner “crossed the line of ethics” regarding Saudi funding for the company.”

  46. BTSays wrote, “these are from the centre as Macron’s Ensemble party is.”

    Ha, ha,ha, ha. Compared to what, the fascists?

    Funny man, with funny ideas.

  48. >I did with $1k back when it was $10 per integer unit of crypto.

    That’s proven to be many things, idiotic not among them.

    Just dropped in to call BS on this

    No one who hasn’t already been the victim of multiple hacks and scams would casually mention this online in 2024.

  49. Ven @ #44 Thursday, September 26th, 2024 – 10:16 pm

    ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, September 26, 2024 at 10:11 pm
    Joe Hockey on Donald Trump:

    Donald Trump’s economic policies are like “handing a box of chocolates to a four-year-old”, former treasurer and ambassador to the United States Joe Hockey told the National Press Club
    ”

    Is Joe Hockey no longer a member of Australian Liberal party? 🙂

    More pertinently, a lot of Republicans are no longer a member of the Republican Party. 🙂

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