YouGov seems to be back in its three-weekly schedule of federal polling, the latest result showing no change on a tied two-party vote despite movement in the Coalition’s favour on the primary: specifically, Labor is down two points to 30% and the Coalition is up two to 39%. The two-party stasis is presumably down to rounding plus the effect on preferences of a one-point increase for the Greens to 14% and a one-point drop for One Nation to 7%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have taken a dive, his approval down five to 36% and disapproval up six to 58%, while Peter Dutton is up two to 40% and down three to 50%. Albanese still has his nose in front as preferred prime minister, in from 43-38 to 42-39. The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1619.
Confessions, who is Andrew_ E?
Hey great tipping by Fubar if you are there, I make it 6 winners out of 8 for you in the final series. That’s good enough to be betting, although not necessarily encouraging you to do so.
Storm will know they’ve been in a game of football next week, give the Chookies strength.
“By my estimation the cost of the 570ml of draught beer in a pint glass is abot $4.00.”
I hate to think what you are drinking but the cheapest you can get a pint of Coopers Pale for is $7.50
Centresays:
Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 5:12 pm
Confessions, who is Andrew_ E?
——————
Andrew_Earlwood
Diogenes
That is the direct cost of goods sold. Not what is chagred by a pub.
MB @ 5.15 pm
Ok, he should post more 🙂
Earlwood.
David Rowe
Rex Douglas @ #299 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 4:48 pm
Do you take yourself seriously?
pied piper @ #280 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 2:34 pm
This isn’t Project 2025 and Trump’s Amerikkka.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 5:42 pm
Rex Douglas @ #299 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 4:48 pm
“If Dutton forms minority Govt you can rely on the Teal Green crossbench to maintain protection for clean cheap renewables.
But, could we rely on Labor …?”
Do you take yourself seriously?
________
Rex has previously informed us that Rex is an internet persona. So maybe not 🙂
Any news of the imminent action against the Robodebt extortionists? Anytime now?
I suppose the American Labor Party (Down Under) is too busy Up Over to get anything done at home.
Rex
“ So, Dutton’s extreme nuclear energy policy will cost average households and extra $665 a year.
Genuine conservatives wouldn’t have a bar of that.”
——————————————————————
I agree.
I have been saying for a while that we could have gotten perfectly serviceable French nuclear subs for half the price of AUKUS and that should have deterred genuine conservatives too, but apparently not.
If we assume that the French subs might have cost us say $150 billion, a saving of $218+ billion over AUKUS, that is $7.2 billion or $908 per household per annum for thirty years.
Shorter Pied Piper: MASS DEPORTATION NOW!
You gotta love the fever swamp.
😆
Socrates
Labor doubling down on Morrison’s conduct re submarines is unforgivable.
Let’s just hope Labor doesn’t wave through Dutton’s extreme nuclear energy legislation if he becomes PM.
This is not my area of expertise, but why can’t we recruit and pay smart people from overseas and build our own nuclear submarines?
We are paying the Americans an absolutely RIDICULOUS amount of money, and I don’t trust them sharing all their technology.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 4:13 pm
Boerwar
You stated, wrongly, that the NDIS has nothing to do with disability employment.
Bullshit.
The NDIS provides support for people with disabilities to enter the workforce.
———————
You are not winning your party any points misrepresenting the point.
….’
=================
Your point was that the NDIS has nothing to do with disability employment.
My point was that the NDIS supports people with a disability to enter employment.
Further Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison ran the NDIS into the ground.
Prime Minister Albanese has saved it.
Dio,
A pint of Coopers where I live will set you back $12.
We are just a lap dog for the US when it comes to China.
We are never going to own AUKUS submarines. They are American submarines, situated in Australia. The Americans can get to fight China in our name and our side of the planet and get paid squillions to do it – they saw us coming.
Boris Johnson was right, the Chinese are going to call it FUAK-US 😀
Mind you, I am in favour of good defence, I’m not a greenie. You check Greens policy and you do the opposite, you can’t go wrong 🙂
BK
“ That is the direct cost of goods sold. Not what is chagred by a pub.”
Just as well. I was very worried about what you were drinking in your local pub.
Centre
“ We are never going to own AUKUS submarines. They are American submarines, situated in Australia.”
If we can’t own them, we can at least pay for them.
“ Boris Johnson was right, the Chinese are going to call it FUAK-US ”
Got a source for that? That sounds more like Bob Brown. 😉
According to Associated Press, Israel has raided and shut down AL Jazeera’s office in Ramalah, West Bank.
https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-al-jazeera-gaza-war-hamas-4abdb2969e39e7ad99dfbf9caa7bb32c?taid=66ef7b41bc7f2700014ca348&utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter
Why get rid of the reporters if you are doing the right thing?
Al Jazeera is no friend of Iran either.
Israel and Hezbollah exchanged heavy fire into Sunday, with Israeli warplanes carrying out the most intense bombardment in almost a year of conflict across Lebanon’s south and Hezbollah firing rockets deep into northern Israel.
The Israeli military said it struck around 290 targets on Saturday, including thousands of Hezbollah rocket launcher barrels, and said it would continue to hit more targets.
Israel closed schools and restricted gatherings in many northern areas and ordered hospitals there to transfer their operations to facilities with extra protection from rocket and missile fire.
There were no government directives from Lebanon on Sunday morning.
The conflict – which sharply escalated over the past week – has raged since Hezbollah opened a second front against Israel after Israel went to war with Hamas in the Palestinian enclave of Gaza, triggered by the Hamas-led rampage in southern Israel on Oct. 7.
Sirens sounded across Israel all night as multiple rockets and missiles were fired from Lebanon and Iraq, most of which were intercepted by Israeli aerial defence systems, the military said.
Several buildings were struck, including a house badly damaged near the Israeli city of Haifa. Rescue teams treated wounded but there were no reports of deaths. Residents had been instructed to stay near bomb shelters and safe rooms. Hezbollah said it targeted the Israeli Ramat David Airbase with successive barrages of missiles, in the deepest strikes it has claimed since hostilities began.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-israel-exchange-heavy-fire-after-deadly-israeli-strike-2024-09-22/
Socrates
It came from Sco Mo in an interview explaining how he was negotiating the deal with Boris.
Sco Mo left out the “F” but said, words to the effect ‘leave it to your imagination’.
Boomers bypassing the generations who are complaining about Boomers and willing their estates to the generation that is too young to complain about the Boomers?
What?
$3.5 trillion in play.
https://citynews.com.au/2024/boomers-bypassing-kids-to-pass-on-wealth-to-grandkids/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
No-one’s complaining about Boomers, merely pointing out that your self-righteous slagging of young people as stupid, ignorant and lazy has no basis in reality.
My pick for newspoll
Greens 14%
Labor 31%
Libs/Nats probably 40% or worse
2PP 51 to the Tories
My pick for newspoll
Greens 16%
Labor 28%
Libs/Nats 40%
The fact that we are even speculating on a 51-49 to LNP Newspoll shows that voters are not happy with Labor. This is why an interest rate cut would be so beneficial to Labor, much more than would normally be the case.
If Dutton can prove that power prices will fall under his plans it’s another policy win for him.
If the Greens hit 16%, well yes i would be happy, but newspoll is not known for big moves.
But yes, 16% might even trigger Lordbain to drop by for a quick “smirk post”.
My pick is greens at 14%
‘Royal Doulton says:
Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 6:53 pm
No-one’s complaining about Boomers, merely pointing out that your self-righteous slagging of young people as stupid, ignorant and lazy has no basis in reality.’
—————————————
‘No-one’s complaining about Boomers…’
False premise.
It isn’t a mystery why nominally centre-left parties in many nations are getting thrown out of office after one term and are losing vote share. These parties don’t deliver for the people. Their motto could be summed up as, “Incremental change for some.” On economic policy they are centre-right, not centre-left. They are often the worst offenders at inflicting fiscal austerity when it is not appropriate. They don’t improve people’s material conditions of living in a large, noticeable, and universal way. They focus on small-bore programs that don’t do much, don’t get noticed, and thus they don’t get credit for them. Universal programs are much more popular than heavily restricted programs because everyone has a stake in their preservation. You’re much more likely to be re-elected when you address the biggest sources of anxiety – housing, employment, income support, education, health care – with alacrity, and with a laser focus on the structural, underlying causes. Don’t do tokenistic gestures. Show that you are fighting for people. Don’t spend half your time lamenting what CAN’T be done. Don’t try to gaslight people into thinking that the national government is less powerful than corporations. Use the power that you have to the utmost.
Good god. What has happened to the open thread over the last month or so? Not just the fever swamp, but the delulu swamp.
Greens at 16% in Newspoll? Wow.
SMH quarterly figures are not good for Albo – Labor at 29 in NSW 25 in Q and 30 in Vic
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-state-by-state-numbers-that-show-albanese-s-big-problem-and-dutton-s-bigger-challenge-20240920-p5kc4c.html
Right on the mark Nicholas.
Good post
“False premise”
The entire thing is you slagging off young generations as ignorant, lazy and selfish and then stating that boomers have some moral superiority when they are almost universally viewed as the luckiest generation that have ever lived.
Defending the current generation and pointing out that your self-righteous claims are nonsense isn’t complaining.
BW
If there isn’t some allowance for the children, I doubt those grandchildren wills would survive contesting.
At least, I hope they wouldn’t.
And before I get piled on about not being a lawyer, my dad was and specialised in wills and contested wills are his favourite topic of conversation.
Few more greens have turned up Fess, thats whats happenned to your open thread
The Greens vote tonight may drop like the other poll recently due to crazy Hamas supporting protests recently.
Vlad
I’m objecting to the incorrect use of the term “gaslighting”.
What seems to work is borrow very heavily and build a lot of stuff to keep activity up and let someone else worry about the debt.
‘Diogenes says:
Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 7:20 pm
BW
If there isn’t some allowance for the children, I doubt those grandchildren wills would survive contesting.
At least, I hope they wouldn’t.
And before I get piled on about not being a lawyer, my dad was and specialised in wills and contested wills are his favourite topic of conversation.’
————————–
Agree. A great opportunity to grow GDP by expanding the legal industry!
The general case being addressed in the article was where the Boomers kids are OK: house, jobs, money in the bank. In that case I believe that willing the estate direct to grandchildren can save a generation’s worth of capital gains tax. But I am not an estate planner.
Disclaimer: this is not a personal issue for us.
‘Royal Doulton says:
Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 7:17 pm
“False premise”
The entire thing is you slagging off young generations as ignorant, lazy and selfish and then stating that boomers have some moral superiority when they are almost universally viewed as the luckiest generation that have ever lived.
Defending the current generation and pointing out that your self-righteous claims are nonsense isn’t complaining.’
————–
False premise piled on false premise. Over generalizations abound.
‘Nicholas says:
Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 7:11 pm
It isn’t a mystery why nominally centre-left parties in many nations are getting thrown out of office after one term and are losing vote share. These parties don’t deliver for the people.
….’
————————
It seems to me that we are somewhere near a key inflection point: the point at which our run of luck deserts us and we face a period of recession and perhaps even depression.
Domestic and external conditions heavily favoured Australia for around the last four decades.
A key factor was the rise of China as a market for Australian commodities.
We are a trade-exposed economy.
Globalization encouraged cheap transaction costs for trade itself.
It also maximized global efficiencies.
We were enormous beneficiaries.
However tariffs are increasing by up to 100% on items such as cars.
Borrowing during the rise resulted in some good outcomes.
But we now have close the highest household debt in the world.
Government (feds plus states) is at very high levels except in WA and Qld.
Our biggest markets are all facing demographic crashes.
The iron ore price is heading south and is unlikely to recover any time soon.
Within a generation our major exports are likely to be severely attenuated or to disappear.
Our great primary production is likely to be severely impacted by climate change.
I believe that Covid is still depressing growth.
If I am right then there are going to be a lot of dissatisfied Australian voters around for the next couple of decades because, faced with declining economies, governments will not be ‘able to deliver for the people.’ There are no magic puddings.
It will not really matter what stripe the governments are. They will routinely face a caning.
Vlad @ #339 Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 – 7:21 pm
Except that you aren’t Greens, you’re delusional fanboys playing at being Greens.
My god it’s insanity.
Great post Nicholas! Good to see you back……
PS you were dead right on the NDIS being a boondoggle as well, ALP rustedons won’t see it of course but it was inevitable given the design z and were about to see the exact same thing happen with early childhood education (ECE)
‘PageBoi says:
Sunday, September 22, 2024 at 8:06 pm
Great post Nicholas! Good to see you back……
PS you were dead right on the NDIS being a boondoggle as well, ALP rustedons won’t see it of course but it was inevitable given the design z and were about to see the exact same thing happen with early childhood education (ECE)’
——————–
I note that Xi is doing what the Greens want to do: progressively re-nationalizing China’s economy and doing command and control.
The Greens ideologues might want to have a look at how that is traveling but I doubt it.
The Greenswant the highest company tax rate in the world. Capital will do what it is doing in China: strike or flight. Trillions upon trillions of dollars are leaving.
The Greens want rents set at less than the rate of inflation and at less than the cost of provision. The private rental market will be destroyed.
The Greens want 40% increase in wages. That will destroy most Australian businesses.
The Greens want to deliver Zero Net Forty. Nothing less will do. That will cost half a million jobs.
The Greens will go after a dozen or so industries and either drastically limit them or destroy them altogether.
It all seems to easy when everything you breath, drink, eat and wear arrives in your inner urban dwelling and when your dwelling is constructed of materials that all come from somewhere else.
All you have to do is punish the people who do all those things for you and life will be perfect.
Will Jill Stein deliver the world to Trump?
Only a Greens!
I didn’t actually mention you at all bore, and I’ve actually had a great weekend and have no time for your crap, I was just congratulating nick on an as always worthwhile post. Please ignore me
So, will Jill Stein and the Greens deliver the world to Trump?