It’s been a busy week on Poll Bludger, which a new thread on the US election joining posts on state polls in Victoria, Western Australia and Queensland. Meanwhile at federal level:
• The federal redistribution for New South Wales has been finalised, with only very minor adjustments made to the boundaries proposed in June, none of which affect my calculations of the new margins by more than 0.1%. Certainly there has been no revision to the abolition of North Sydney, held by teal independent Kylea Tink. The only redistribution process still in train is that for the Northern Territory, charged with drawing a new boundary between its two seats of Solomon and Lingiari, for which a proposal should be published shortly.
• The Liberal candidate for the crucial Melbourne seat of Chisholm will be Katie Allen, who was the member for Higgins from 2019 until her defeat by Labor’s Michelle Ananda-Rajah in 2022. Allen was endorsed on the weekend by the state party’s administrative committee, which was charged with ratifying local party preselection processes that were conducted before new boundaries revealed that Higgins, for which Allen had again won endorsement, was to be abolished. The decision came at the expense of Monash councillor Theo Zographos, who was last year preselected unopposed for Chisholm.
• Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reports the looming preselections for the Melbourne seats of Maribyrnong and Gorton, respectively to be vacated with the retirements of Bill Shorten and Brendan O’Connor, will be shaped by a long-standing agreement that the Left will take Gorton from the Right when O’Connor retires, while the Left will take “the next safe Right seat that becomes available”. The matter will be determined by the party’s national executive, which has again taken over the federal preselection process from the Victorian branch. Maribyrnong is considered likely to go to Jo Briskey, national co-ordinator of the Left faction United Workers Union, although The Age reports she “could face a challenge from Moonee Valley mayor Pierce Tyson”.
• In Gorton, the Labor preselection appears to be developing into a contest between Alice Jordan-Baird, a climate change and water policy expert, and Ranka Rasic, the mayor of Brimbank. The two candidates are back by rival sub-factions of the Right, the former with that of Richard Marles and the Transport Workers Union, the latter with Bill Shorten and the Australian Workers Union. James Massola of The Age reports the matter could be decided by a third Right union, the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, supporting Rasic and the AWU in the interests of checking the rising power of the TWU.
Griff
True. It was the hypocritical Greens who saw a chance to sink the slipper into Albanese when he sold his house recently. I was just reminding PageBoi of that particularly bit of personal bastardy from the Greens.
Can we get over this “but its been ten years and we need to fix things” mantra already?
Before Whitlam, the last Labor PM had been Chifley, and then it was nothing but Libs (and of course that moment with the Country party). A grand total… of 23 years. Over double the time period of Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison. Now, when Whitlam got the party in from the desert, did he decide “oh, I need time to get my affairs in order, maybe next term?” Fuck no.
In short;
He got Australia out of Nam and ended conscription
He got the ball rolling with Medibank.
Social Welfare reforms (expanding, not cutting)
Equal pay for women was legislated
Abolished the death penalty
Removed punitive divorce laws
Free university
A range of government department and reforms, including sewerage investment
Reducing the age to vote
Massive reforms for First Nations rights
The independence of PNG
and more!
And he did this… in a grand total of 2 years and 341 days!
And yes, he obviously lost next round, and yes, not all his changes survived, but even those which didnt survive, like medibank and free uni, left enough of an impression that next time around, they stuck. Other changes did stick; didnt see Fraser reimplement conscription, nor did he scrap all the first nations work, nor the infrastructure reforms, nor the voting age.
For all we hear about Whitlam’s work being undone almost as soon as it was done, alot not only survived, but become the foundation of later works.
Now, I am not saying Albo is Whitlam (certainly not), nor am I saying the electoral terrain is the same, but its worth noting that Whitlam, for all the differences in a 49.58% first pref, got a 2pp of … 52.7%. Thats barely larger then Albos of 52.13%!
So after only 10 years, wheres Albos excuse?
Oh no, the LNP wont support it… so what!? The Liberals didnt support Whitlam, didnt stop him then. And since when does a lack of bipartisanship stop the Libs from doing anything?
Oh no, these things would blow out the budget… and? I dont know how to break this to certain members of the Labor caucus, but the media is never, EVER, going to say your better then the Libs. So how about instead of chasing the dragon, labor stop being afraid to invest properly into our country.
Oh no, the Greens and minors are blocking… then either be prepared to negotiate or call their bluff; if you think your policy is right and popular, then the polls and pressure should browbeat the Greens.
Just stop crying about it being difficult after 10 years to get shit done… it didnt stop Whitlam, it didnt stop Curtin (WW2 and 10 years ish of the Libs). Hell, it didnt stop Howard for all the ill he did…
PageBoi says:
Monday, September 16, 2024 at 8:18 pm
It’s so cute…’
———–
…that PageBoi has yet to even begin to comprehend that the Greens various policies on housing and the environment are so contradictory that they cannot even begin to deliver on their promises.
So cutsie wutsie of you PageBoi.
…and that is before the tootsie wootsie Greens get onto their supply-busting promise of a permanent cap on rent increases of 2%. Still, it might fool a few Greens kiddies into believing they have a housing future under the Greens. And that is all that matters, right?
I mean, imagine being Albo who makes a huge deal about his upbringing in public housing (his famous log cabin story) , but then pulls up the drawbridge behind him and doesn’t build a single public house, not even one
You would hate to be called such a fraud wouldn’t you…..
“ Vote for anybody other than the Labor – Coalition duopoly. It’s quite simple, really.”
S.Simpson, if people want nothing to change they should just keep on voting the same way they always have.
Warning: if nothing changes, we’re all fucked.
Last week’s episode of Q & A on the ABC on the housing crisis was a beauty.
Most of you, especially the Greens supporters here should grab a replay. The guests were Alan Kohler, who was spot on with about 90% of what he said, and Michael Sukkar, with about 75% of what he said.
Full Mooners get yourselves informed by the experts!
There IS a difference between The Greens Political Party and most Greens Voters, Wranslide.
The Greens Political Party operatives are determined to shave votes off labor’s left flank by wedging Labor against swinging voters in the middle. This is short term Nihilism, as it seems very clear that for every little gain that the greens pick up on the left four fold desert Labor on the right for the sweaty bosom of the LNP: so the Greens will not end up with a captive Labor minority government to dictate terms to, only a rapacious LNP one.
The fact is that pissant Baa-ndt, Max Hyphen Blather and all the other concern fakes in The Greens Political Party don’t care – not really – about any of their signature ‘causes’, let alone actual people: only their ideological pursuits: first destroy Labor, then create mass despair and ultimately, eventually ‘the prols’ will come to their senses and embrace the glorious Marxist revolution. Then and only then can they be saved by the enlightened elites in the Greens Political Party.
Of course, most Greens voters are not going to wait around for the glorious revolution, and faced with a choice between -referencing Liberal over Labor will do what they have always done – and preference Labor. Also, if the Greens Political Party continue to run interference on behalf of the LNP, there is a huge political risk in that for The Greens Political party: I for one hope they overplay their hand.
Boerwar
I want the kind of leadership that’ll prevent Dutton and the coalition getting in to government.
Good post dave (at 7.20). Hopefully my approval doesn’t fill you with shame.
Lordbain, following from what you just said:
“In three dynamic years, the Whitlam Government effected many overdue and very welcome changes, in so many areas:
Race relationships: the White Australia Policy was abolished, the Racial Discrimination Act began the move into multiculturalism for Australia
Land rights: returning land to the Gurindiji people in the Northern Territory began the process that led to the Mabo and Wik judgements; free Aboriginal legal services were also established
Education: free higher education was introduced, making hundreds and thousands of Australians the first in their family able to go to university
Civil rights: both conscription into the armed forces and the death penalty were abolished
Healthcare: Medicare brought universal healthcare for all Australians, providing access to GPs and hospitals at minimal cost
Rights for women: no-fault divorce meant that women could chose to leave an unhappy marriage without being financially burdened; removing the tax on contraceptives meant the Pill was made affordable and accessible; the equal pay case meant women would be more fairly compensated in employment
Foreign affairs: Whitlam was the first Western leader to visit China, reorienting our focus to Asia, leading to a flourishing trade with the region
The Arts: funding to the arts was doubled, the National Gallery, the Australian Council for the Arts, and SBS were all established
All of this, and more, to be thankful for!”
https://johntsquires.com/2022/12/02/the-achievements-of-the-whitlam-government-50-years-later/
And not to mention my personal favourite – pulling us out of the murderous bloodbath that was the Vietnam war.
Every time I now see Albanese’s smug pie face I just want to puke.
PageBoi says:
Monday, September 16, 2024 at 8:22 pm
I mean, imagine being… Robin Hood. Sitting on a beautiful capital gains on his purpose built inner city leafy pad…
‘Mundo says:
Monday, September 16, 2024 at 8:30 pm
Boerwar
I want the kind of leadership that’ll prevent Dutton and the coalition getting in to government.
…’
————
Lucky you. Dutton will have to wait another four years. But they will ditch him well before that.
Elmer Fudd says:
Monday, September 16, 2024 at 6:13 pm
“I’ll wait for the yougov pix poll before the gnashing of teeth begins. Meanwhile the Labor bashing from left and right continues adnausium on PB as you interpret this poll and that being caused by anything you choose Labor has done or failed to do. Self delusion is not debate, it is just hate speech disguised as woke thinking or right Wing nut job zealots. Knock yourselves out here in your other world echo chamber,- with too few intelligent exceptions. You have become as unreadable as Badthinker Lordbain and equally as offensive. I won’t bother reading your posts. It’s just toxic,smarmy whining I can do without. Carry on..”
That’s a pretty pretentious post.
It is truly nauseating to read lordbain and eddy liken themselves and their shit headed movement to Whitlam: pure ignorance of history abounds.
Whitlam would have no truck with their simple minded populist shibboleths: ‘The Whitlam Program’ was the result of painstaking work over the course of two decades BEFORE Gough won government.
Compare max Hyphen Blather’s posturing to some real reform:
https://assurancehr.com.au/revolutionising-road-transport-a-breakdown-of-recent-legislative-changes/
No one on the board has even bothered to comment on this; yet it is the work of decades of effort – and I should know because I spent seven years of my life developing and effectively ‘beta testing’ these ideas in the NSW industrial system two decades ago.
Road transport is easily the most dangerous occupation in Australia and this is a truly monumental set of reforms by a reforming labor government and one that proves that – in the absence of the sort of wedging and gaslighting that we have witnessed on other fronts that this governemnt is a true heir to the Whitlam and Wran traditions of modern Labor.
Thats ok Eddy, my general rule is that if people dont find C@T, BW etc to be absolute pinnacles of rusted on hyper aggression posting, then I can live without their adoration 😉
I also notice that, say, Griff is very quick to try and be smart with certain people, and yet remains quiet on BWs more… colorful statements, like the Greens supposable wanting to tax everything 40 percent.
At the end of the day, these people can continue to screech in defiance of reality, and come next election (or in the case of the ACT election for BW) I look forward to watching some a grade meltdowns.
Or I will be proven wrong, Labor will defeat the tories… and I will also win because, as much as BW, and AE, and Fess, and the whole lot of them have this crazy idea that the Greens are, amongst other things, simply trying to get the Libs into power… they arnt, and Green voters will pick labor 10 out of 10 times over the tories, even with a weakling hypocrite like Albo at the helm.
And heres AE proving the point 😉
We never said the Greens are like Whitlam, we simply said that anyone who keeps bleating on about “10 years of the liberals” as an excuse for doing nothing need only look at Whitlam and Curtin for actual leaders…
*puts on flame suit*
New Lib candidate for Grey (SA): Tom Venning, whose uncle Ivan was a state Lib MP from 1990 to 2014.
https://www.indaily.com.au/news/politics/2024/09/16/liberal-party-backs-familiar-name-for-sas-biggest-seat
Usually a pretty safe seat, except for 2016 when the Nick X candidate got within 2%. That candidate, Andrea Broadfoot, is now running something called “Independent for Grey”, although she isn’t the candidate herself. Liz Habermann almost won the state seat of Flinders in 2022, ran in Grey later that year but only got 11% (ended up with about 22% 3cp, 5% behind Labor). I wonder how well she’d go with an organised teal-style campaign.
Lordbain says:
Monday, September 16, 2024 at 8:52 pm
Thats ok Eddy, my general rule is that if people dont find C@T, BW etc to be absolute pinnacles of rusted on hyper aggression posting, then I can live without their adoration
I also notice that, say, Griff is very quick to try and be smart with certain people, and yet remains quiet on BWs more… colorful statements, like the Greens supposable wanting to tax everything 40 percent.
At the end of the day, these people can continue to screech in defiance of reality, and come next election (or in the case of the ACT election for BW) I look forward to watching some a grade meltdowns.
Or I will be proven wrong, Labor will defeat the tories… and I will also win because, as much as BW, and AE, and Fess, and the whole lot of them have this crazy idea that the Greens are, amongst other things, simply trying to get the Libs into power… they arnt, and Green voters will pick labor 10 out of 10 times over the tories, even with a weakling hypocrite like Albo at the helm.
__________
Haha! I responded to BW this evening and he took it like a champ. You on the other hand are still flailing about. Get back to me when you have convinced your party to take rent freezes off the table and vote for a low income shared equity scheme 🙂
“ We never said the Greens are like Whitlam, we simply said that anyone who keeps bleating on about “10 years of the liberals” as an excuse for doing nothing need only look at Whitlam and Curtin for actual leaders…”
____
But you are oblivious of the decades of work that went into the Whitlam program before it took flight.
With high inflation, nearly three decades of the liberals debauching skills training and so on and so forth, there are no ‘quick fixes’ – only years of ‘boring hard boards’ to achieve lasting reforms, so Max etc should simply – GET THE FUCK OUT OF THE WAY. The Greens are policy dilettantes – they don’t have the stomach for hard work and right now they are only assisting Dutton. It is telling that Lambie, Pocock, the Teals are all willing to deal with the Government without ‘demands’ regarding other wishlists and have grown tied of the Greens stunting … maybe the likes of Integrity should reflect on THAT …
But why would I Griff, when I support these policies and that rent caps have been shown to work. Hell, as has been repeated ad nauseum, they work here, in the ACT.
So whats the point in “debating” the same point over and over and over, when we will both leave thinking we are right. This isnt a debate forum, there are no rules, and there is no point, so I shall continue to to give you the bare minimum of my time and effort 🙂
I am not all negative on the Coalition actually. I posted with approval a few weeks back on Kovacic’s response to Babet’s motion in the Senate.
Lordbain says:
Monday, September 16, 2024 at 9:09 pm
But why would I Griff, when I support these policies and that rent caps have been shown to work. Hell, as has been repeated ad nauseum, they work here, in the ACT.
So whats the point in “debating” the same point over and over and over, when we will both leave thinking we are right. This isnt a debate forum, there are no rules, and there is no point, so I shall continue to to give you the bare minimum of my time and effort
_______
They are not rent freezes in the ACT, Lordbain.
Do your homework 🙂
“ We never said the Greens are like Whitlam, we simply said that anyone who keeps bleating on about “10 years of the liberals” as an excuse for doing nothing need only look at Whitlam and Curtin for actual leaders…”
What he said.
I think the rusted on Labor posters here are starting to freak out.
On the third anniversary of AUKUS, it seems appropriate to recall another great Morrison government lie, the Hydrogen car. The laws of physics doomed it from the start. Sure enough, so far this year there have been 10 sold, zero to private buyers. There have been 63,000 EVs sold this year, despite the delayed introduction of Labor’s Vehicle Efficiency scheme.
https://thedriven.io/2024/09/16/hydrogen-car-is-dead-and-buried-just-three-years-after-morrison-hailed-it-a-game-changer/
In Norway, EVs now outnumber petrol vehicles on the road. Not only are GHG emissions down, but so is noise and travel costs. Safety and air quality is improving.
https://electrek.co/2024/09/14/there-are-now-more-electric-cars-than-gas-cars-on-norways-roads/
I have to wonder how much improvement in Labor’s vote might have occurred with faster implementation.
AE, “Lambie, Pocock, the Teals are all willing to deal with the Government without ‘demands’ is a damned lie and you know it.
Pocock has gotten, amonsgt other things, multiple senate investigations into the merits of raising government support payments.
The Jewish envoy was done in part because certain Teals wanted it, amongst similar agreements to Pocock.
The Teals, Pocock, Lambie, all of them at some point or another have made requests of the government, as is their right.
So the idea that only the Greens dare “negotiate” with the Government is a bald faced lie, which can be dismissed with less then a minute on google.
Try harder 🙂
Hey Griff, please note the following;
“But why would I Griff, when I support these policies and that rent caps have been shown to work. Hell, as has been repeated ad nauseum, they work here, in the ACT.”
Try again 🙂
Lordbain says:
Monday, September 16, 2024 at 9:14 pm
AE, “Lambie, Pocock, the Teals are all willing to deal with the Government without ‘demands’ is a damned lie and you know it.
Pocock has gotten, amonsgt other things, multiple senate investigations into the merits of raising government support payments.
The Jewish envoy was done in part because certain Teals wanted it, amongst similar agreements to Pocock.
The Teals, Pocock, Lambie, all of them at some point or another have made requests of the government, as is their right.
So the idea that only the Greens dare “negotiate” with the Government is a bald faced lie, which can be dismissed with less then a minute on google.
Try harder
_______
Where did AE say the word “negotiate”? I see AE said ‘demands’. Is that the Green word for negotiate? You shouldn’t use quotation marks like that, Lordbain.
Do better 🙂
Lordbain says:
Monday, September 16, 2024 at 9:16 pm
Hey Griff, please note the following;
“But why would I Griff, when I support these policies and that rent caps have been shown to work. Hell, as has been repeated ad nauseum, they work here, in the ACT.”
Try again
________
Sure. Here is the commentary again: https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-freezing-rents-would-do-more-harm-than-good-20230814-p5dwde.html
The clue is in the title. But you really should read it including the words you quoted. The ACT does not have a rent freeze.
Do your homework 🙂
AE, I wish the Greens were powerful enough to be responsible for the death of Labor.
You know what killed Labor? Labor did, when they chased the Libs down the path of “the market fixes everything”.
The reason why Labor has lost a quarter of its vote from 2006 is because theres parties to the left of them that are more progressive, theres parties to the right of them that are more reactionary, and every time they do get in power (with the exception of Rudd, and boy did the party fuck up there) the party is afraid to do anything with power.
Yes, the Greens have demands… guess what, if you think Pocock, or Lambie, or the Teals, or any indies wont have “Demands” if Labor was in minority, then your simply a fool. And yet here you are, once again blaming the Greens for Labors own fuck ups… heres a little secret AE; Labor didnt crash and burn in 2010 because of the Greens. They crashed and burned because they got spooked at the mere hint of a fight and knifed the most popular Labor member this century.
Maybe when Labor starts accepting that they are their own biggest hurdle, they can start to learn lessons and … stop being afraid of their own shadows.
We don’t have many years to work through and sort out the housing crisis, it is happening now and worsening the longer it is left insufficiently addressed. It is a huge negative drag on so many areas of society and the economy and so needs some fundamental rethinking. People cannot afford to house themselves let alone think about starting a family…it’s completely unsustainable.
Griff, you even quote me saying rent caps, and yet somehow you read “rent freeze”.
Do you need professional help? I can think of a catchy little number that helps adults who no read right and good 😉
But hey, maybe lets look beyond 1 SMH news article 🙂
https://lsj.com.au/articles/can-rent-caps-work-in-nsw/
Are there any examples of capping rents?
Both camps in NSW have cited the San Francisco example several times during the recent debate. But rent control in San Francisco only applies to dwellings built before 1979 with some exceptions (single-family homes and business units are not covered by rent control). For now, little over 60 per cent of all dwellings available in San Francisco are rent-controlled.
Minns referenced Berlin as an example of rent freeze policies that failed. In 2019, the German city unanimously voted for a stricter cap and partial freeze for the upcoming five years, but the decision was overturned in 2021.
Minns noted this was because the measure had been “catastrophic”. Still, it came down to a legal technicality where the Federal Constitutional Court declared the law unconstitutional since the Federal Government already had a law regulating rents, so state governments could not impose their regulations.
Some European countries, including France, Germany, and Ireland, apply rent caps depending on circumstances. Others, like Spain, Italy, Portugal, the Netherlands and Belgium, have rent moderation measures.
In Belgium, rent rises are indexed to the Health Index, calculated each month by the Government (for example, in the past year, rents in applicable dwellings could not exceed 4.1 per cent).
“[Australia] is very different from Europe or San Francisco,” says Jain. “There’s a lot of institutional investment into the rental market. Germany is one of the countries with the lowest home ownership in the world because leases are so long.”
Australia, continues Jain, relying on “mum and dad” investors to provide private dwellings for rent.
In tandem, there is the fact that Australia’s population grew considerably post-COVID, with the return of international students, expatriates, and other new immigrants. At the same time, “none of the governments in the past ten years focused on increasing the housing supply”.
Then there is Canberra.
In the ACT, rent increases are limited to 110 per cent of inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A generous measure, says Jain, that could work at a limited time in some local regions in NSW.
“In local government areas that record higher rent increases above a certain threshold,” continues Jain, “can look at [short-term] rent caps to the likes of Canberra”.
Jain warns the ACT measures only passed in 2019, and it is still too early to see if it worked. The last SQM Research report revealed the vacancy rate in June was 2.1 per cent, above Sydney’s 1.7 per cent. As of June 2023, Canberra recorded a 1.9 decrease in the annual median rent.
Oh loooook, it says it can work as part of a comprehensive policy body.
Just like I keep saying; you need to address supply and demand with a holistic framework.
Simply saying “rent caps and freezes dont work!” is lazy, because you can find examples where they dont, and where they do.
Lets learn about where they do work, and see what we can implement here.
“ You know what killed Labor? Labor did, when they chased the Libs down the path of “the market fixes everything”.
_______
Seems odd: given the reforms Labor has already undertaken in industrial relations, caps on international students (and tying future growth in that sector to universities building purpose built student accomodation), the HAFF etc, migration reforms, funding and driving 43/30 and so on and so forth. All of these seem to involve … inter alia … government intervention in ares of identifed marketplace failings.
Me thinks that saying Labor stands for ‘the market fixes everything’ is a monumental leftist lie: the ultimate Trot straw-man.
Andrew_E
Yep. To actually make Labor electable, Whitlam had to bang together the heads of the Victorian ALP socialist wing. He was very unpopular with the Labor left because of this. I remember my father feeling ambivalent to Gough because of this. Although he changed his mind once Gough was elected.
And let me restate your words, A_E: ‘The Whitlam Program’ was the result of painstaking work over the course of two decades BEFORE Gough won government.
There was a lot of evidence-based policy work. And, of course after 23 years of Coalition rule, Australia had fallen far behind the rest of the democratic world in terms of welfare-state provisions. So, a lot of what Gough did was not reversed by Malcolm Fraser because to do so would be to take us back to the 1950s.
And, if we had kept on the Menzies / Fraser trajectory, we would have no public health insurance – we would be like the US.
I am also very conscious that some of the leading lights of the Greens today were activists during the Whitlam years, not supporters of Gough at all. Wendy Bacon is an example, as she openly admits.
And Gough remained a true Labor man his whole life, and actively mentored and supported Labor people.
Whereas Malcolm Fraser did repudiate the Liberal party, towards the end of Howard’s tenure.
AE… you do know what the HAFF is right? Like, you do understand how it works… right?
The HAFF is a fund thats reliant on profits… from where again? Of thats right, its a god damn investment fund dependent on profits from investing in the free market; investments go well? You get money towards housing projects. Investments do poorly? Well…
Caps on international students… because yes, playing to dog whistling is completely worth bragging about! Labor, the party of… xenophobic dog whistling?
Emissions targets… dependent on ACCUs, which in turn are dependent… on the private market making it lucrative enough for people to build ACCU generating projects.
These and more rely on the private sector and market more then simply “government intervention”
Its almost like you dont even know the policies your defending AE 😉
“ the ultimate Trot straw-man.”
‘Trot’ isn’t actually as offensive as you think it is.
I cannot believe how meekly the Albanese Labor government has simply capitulated into complete impotence. They don’t even have a plan to do anything about it. Their goal seems to be to simply limp along.
The ALP is headed in the direction of the Israeli Labor Party: oblivion.
There is, in my estimation, a better than even chance that Trump and Dutton will be leading their respective nations at the end of May next year.
Lordbain says:
Monday, September 16, 2024 at 9:35 pm
Griff, you even quote me saying rent caps, and yet somehow you read “rent freeze”.
Do you need professional help? I can think of a catchy little number that helps adults who no read right and good
But hey, maybe lets look beyond 1 SMH news article
https://lsj.com.au/articles/can-rent-caps-work-in-nsw/
Are there any examples of capping rents?
Both camps in NSW have cited the San Francisco example several times during the recent debate. But rent control in San Francisco only applies to dwellings built before 1979 with some exceptions (single-family homes and business units are not covered by rent control). For now, little over 60 per cent of all dwellings available in San Francisco are rent-controlled.
Minns referenced Berlin as an example of rent freeze policies that failed. In 2019, the German city unanimously voted for a stricter cap and partial freeze for the upcoming five years, but the decision was overturned in 2021.
Minns noted this was because the measure had been “catastrophic”. Still, it came down to a legal technicality where the Federal Constitutional Court declared the law unconstitutional since the Federal Government already had a law regulating rents, so state governments could not impose their regulations.
Some European countries, including France, Germany, and Ireland, apply rent caps depending on circumstances. Others, like Spain, Italy, Portugal, the Netherlands and Belgium, have rent moderation measures.
In Belgium, rent rises are indexed to the Health Index, calculated each month by the Government (for example, in the past year, rents in applicable dwellings could not exceed 4.1 per cent).
“[Australia] is very different from Europe or San Francisco,” says Jain. “There’s a lot of institutional investment into the rental market. Germany is one of the countries with the lowest home ownership in the world because leases are so long.”
Australia, continues Jain, relying on “mum and dad” investors to provide private dwellings for rent.
In tandem, there is the fact that Australia’s population grew considerably post-COVID, with the return of international students, expatriates, and other new immigrants. At the same time, “none of the governments in the past ten years focused on increasing the housing supply”.
Then there is Canberra.
In the ACT, rent increases are limited to 110 per cent of inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A generous measure, says Jain, that could work at a limited time in some local regions in NSW.
“In local government areas that record higher rent increases above a certain threshold,” continues Jain, “can look at [short-term] rent caps to the likes of Canberra”.
Jain warns the ACT measures only passed in 2019, and it is still too early to see if it worked. The last SQM Research report revealed the vacancy rate in June was 2.1 per cent, above Sydney’s 1.7 per cent. As of June 2023, Canberra recorded a 1.9 decrease in the annual median rent.
Oh loooook, it says it can work as part of a comprehensive policy body.
Just like I keep saying; you need to address supply and demand with a holistic framework.
Simply saying “rent caps and freezes dont work!” is lazy, because you can find examples where they dont, and where they do.
Lets learn about where they do work, and see what we can implement here.
_________
1. Resorting to asking whether I need professional help is uncool. I shall try not resort to personal insults and you are welcome to pull me up when I do. I shall do the same to you.
2. It isn’t an SMH news article. It is a referenced commentary by Brendan Coates and Joey Moloney of the Grattan Institute.
3. Rent freezes are Greens policy. They are different to limiting rental price increases. I provided the links earlier. Max reiterated this morning on AM – link provided earlier as well. If you don’t like it, then when are you going to tell them so? If you do like rent freezes, you need to accept that it not evidence based policy.
“Lets [sic] learn about where they do work, and see what we can implement here.” 🙂
Labor had to do something about capping international student numbers, essentially the education sector was setting our migration numbers and the number of students that could be allowed in was unlimited. We obviously had a heap come in due to pent up demand after Covid. I don’t think the restrictions have got anything to do with racism, it’s a matter of whether we have capacity to take 500,000 net arrivals per year.
@birdbrain:
“ Yes, the Greens have demands… guess what, if you think Pocock, or Lambie, or the Teals, or any indies wont have “Demands” if Labor was in minority, then your simply a fool. ”
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Labor is already ‘in minority’ in the senate, and guess what … whenever any indie or minor party senator on the cross bench enter into negotiations with Labor without first telegraphing a list of terrorist like ‘demands’ in areas that they know full well the government will not budge on … they often win concessions. Heck even the Greens have a list of ‘wins’ when they used to act like Pocock etc currently do.
The simple truth is that the Greens Political Party have gone rogue: they don’t care for real negotiations anymore. If they did, they’d push for further increases in rental assistance rather than rental caps or freezes (which are of dubious value to enforce, especially when considered at a federal level of government). These are the sort of things that they could win concessions, just like other members of the cross bench win concessions – because none of the others are deliberately trying to set the government up for political trouble like the Greens Political Party are.
Griff and A_E,
Thanks for your comments tonight.
We are slammed as hopeless partisans, against all evidence (Griff has always been a reason voter, A_E is hardly giving Federal Labor laurel wreaths regarding
Oh_FuckusAUKUS.We are just people who understand science, logic and data, and realise that there is no magic wand to wave to suddenly sort out all our problems. It is going to take time, good policy work, and more time to react to the effect that policy changes have.
And an understanding of “The Central Limit Theorem”.
they can’t fix everything all at once but at least they’re bringing in laws to put Clementine Ford in jail for seven years. That dirty doxxer
Griff, heres a question; why dont rent freezes work? Theres the usual answers, but it comes down to this; it reduces landlords in the market, it reduces the desire for investment of new proporties, and simply put, it means the market doesnt like it.
So, by itself, rent caps wont help the housing crisis… by itself.
Thats the key phrase that seems to be “conveniently” left out in these “chats”.
Rent freezes for a set time while other parts of the Greens housing framework are utilised to increase supply because the government doesnt need to do things for a profit margin.
If the government did what it did back in the day of Menzies, and you had government departments running government funding housing projects, these projects arnt reliant on the market in the way that rent caps and freezes discourage others.
So saying “rent freezes dont work” is like saying “this cog doesnt tell time” because it is only part of the framework.
You know which countries and cities have government led housing with rent controls?
Lets start with Vienna; all apartments build before 1945 is subject to rent control, and while private-for-profit housing makes up 42% of housing stock in the city, 77% of that figure is subjected to rent controls.
The reason why Vienna’s rent control works is the government actively steps in to build housing when demand increases… just like the Greens are proposing!
Or look at Singapore; massive housing levels driven by… government building projects.
Or put another way; Rent regulation is a stopgap to forestall mass evictions long enough for the housing market (or the government) to build an appropriate amount of housing commensurate to demand.
Theres a reason why the Greens have rent caps with deadlines… and not indefinite.
It’s easy for people who are sheltered from the problems to say there is no magic wand to fix them.
The simple truth is that the Greens Political Party have gone rogue: they don’t care for real negations anymore.
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You might be right. But The Greens are in the business of gaining votes and seats from Labor, or Liberal or whoever. You don’t like their tactics. Bad luck. By all means keep pissing and moaning about The Greens. Meanwhile they will continue to eat your lunch.
Politics is a continuation of War by other means.
I’m pretty sure that Billy McMahon was responsible for pulling Australia out of Vietnam, not Whitlam.
“ Trot’ isn’t actually as offensive as you think it is.”
Probably right … for about 25% of the population. But totally repellant to the other 75% in this conservative country. Especially the swinging voters in the middle who would otherwise consider voting for the party of ‘positive equality’, government services and a fair go all round … right up to the time that some trots turn up in say something like ‘an EV convoy’ and start telling them that they will ‘hold labor to Account’ with ‘demands’ and all the feckless LNP have to do then is to say ‘yep, vote Labor, get the greens’ and boom LNP governments happen. … like magic …
The Greens Political Party are the Pepe LePews of Australian Politics …
You are correct Bizz, and I humbly apologize for giving that victory to Whitlam. Whitlam removed the remaining “advisers”, saw the cessation of any remaining “activities” by Aus forces, and recognized North Vietnam, but McMahon led the actual withdrawal.
AE, so the Greens are simultaneously destroying the Labor party… and yet are also weak, feckless, and unappealing to the majority of Australia.
What does that say about Labor if the “ev convoy, soy drinking, tofu eating” Greenies are destroying the party 😉
And I’m pretty sure Whitlam let Timor Leste fall to Indonesia too.
Lordbain
“ You know what killed Labor? Labor did, when they chased the Libs down the path of “the market fixes everything”.
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Normally pathologists wait till the patient has stopped breathing before prescribing a cause of death.
The Greens might well be in a minority government with Labor after the next election. Do you really think the Greens would form a Government with the Liberals?
I have argued against some of Labor’s policy positions myself over the past two years e.g. AUKUS and a too weak NACC.
But on the two critical economic issues hurting Labor polls – inflation/living costs and housing affordability – I would contend that the causes of both problems were not by Labor, and their ability to fix them quickly is limited. Inflation is due to world factors and Morrison’s spending.
The housing supply crisis is due to many factors, which have accumulated over two decades since Costellos’ tax brain-snap in 2001. Shorten tried to fix the tax mess in 2019 but got rejected by the Australian electorate. That was a tragedy.
The Greens’ own housing policy promises have been unrealistic (physically undeliverable in the timeframe they promised), so its a bit rich for them to blame Labor alone. Time, patience and a co-operative attitude are needed on this one.
“ You might be right. But The Greens are in the business of gaining votes and seats from Labor, or Liberal or whoever. You don’t like their tactics. Bad luck. By all means keep pissing and moaning about The Greens. Meanwhile they will continue to eat your lunch.
Politics is a continuation of War by other means.”
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nath (can I call you nath?), perhaps you deserve a Dutton government. Frankly I think it inevitable that the greens will end up with a bunch of inner city seats – and some sea change ones along the east coast as well. So what. That in itself doesn’t concern me: only their tactic of driving other Labor held seats that they simply don’t want to contest – or even offer some sort of ‘fair deal’ to – straight into the arms of the LNP so that the equation ‘Labor + Greens’ always equals a minority incapable of forming a government and by default we just have an endless round of hopeless, feckless, corrupt, myopic LNP governments. Maybe you can live with that – and simply affect a ‘I don’t care’ aloof attitude, but poor bugger me, my country. What a shitty mess it is for the rest of us.