Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread)

One regular and two irregular polls, one projecting a Labor minority government, the other offering a rare read on state voting intention across the land.

A lot going on in the world of polling:

Resolve Strategic

Nine Newspapers has the regular monthly Resolve Strategic poll, which has Labor on 28% (down one), the Coalition on 37% (steady), the Greens on 13% (steady) and One Nation on 6% (steady). My estimate of two-party preferred from these results is 50-50, based on preference flows from the 2022 election. Anthony Albanese holds a 35-34 lead as preferred prime minister, after trailing 36-35 last time. Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up one to 35%, with poor and very poor at up two 53%, while Peter Dutton is respectively steady at 41% and up four to 42%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1614.

Accent Research/RedBridge Group MRP poll

Accent Research and RedBridge Group have published their second multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll, in what looks like being a regular quarterly series. This aims for a detailed projected election result by surveying a large national sample, in this case of 5976 surveyed from July 10 to August 27, and using demographic modelling to produce results for each electorate. The full report isn’t in the public domain as far as I can tell but it’s been covered on the ABC’s Insiders and in the Financial Review. UPDATE: Full report here.

The results are not encouraging for Labor: where the previous exercise rated Labor a strong chance of retaining majority government, with a floor of 73 seats and a further nine nine too close to call, they are now down to 64 with 14 too close to call, with the Coalition up from 53 to 59. The median prediction from a range of potential outcomes is that Labor will hold 69 seats, the Coalition 68, the Greens three and others ten. This is based on primary vote projections in line with the recent trend of national polling, with Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 38% and the Greens on 12%.

Five seats are rated as Coalition gains that weren’t last time, Gilmore, Lingiari, Lyons and Aston having moved from too-close-to-call and Paterson going from Labor retain to Coalition gain without passing go. Bruce, Dobell, Hunter, Casey, Tangney, McEwen and Bennelong go from Labor retain to too-close-to-call, while Coalition-held Deakin and Moore are no longer on their endangered list. However, the traffic is not all one way, with Casey in Victoria and Forde in Queensland going from Coalition retain to too-close-to-call. So far as the underlying model is concerned, it is presumably not a coincidence that both seats are on the metropolitan fringes.

The results show a mixed picture for the teals, who are reckoned to have gone backwards in the city, such that Curtin goes from too-close-to-call to Coalition retain and Goldstein goes from teal retain to Liberal gain, but forwards in the country, shifting Wannon from Coalition retain to too-close-to-call while maintaining Cowper as a teal gain. For the Greens, Ryan goes from retained to too-close-to-call while Brisbane does the opposite, with Melbourne and Griffith remaining Greens retains.

Whereas the last assessment was based on 2022 election boundaries, the latest one makes use of the redistribution proposals for New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Respectively, this takes the teal seat of North Sydney out of contention and moves Hughes from Coalition retain to too-close-to-call; costs Labor Higgins and moves Chisholm from Labor retain to too-close-to-call; and introduces Bullwinkel to the too-close-to-call column.

My routine caveat with MRP is that it handles major parties better than independents and minors, perhaps especially with what by MRP standards is fairly modest sample (a similar exercise before the last election involving some of the same personnel had a sample of 18,923). I am particularly dubious about its projection of a blowout Labor win against the Greens in Wills. There also seems reason to doubt its precision in relation to a demographic wild card like Lingiari.

Wolf & Smith federal and state polling

Also just out is an expansive national poll from a new outfit called Wolf & Smith, a “strategic campaign agency based in Sydney” that appears to involve Jim Reed, principal of Resolve Strategic and alumnus of Liberal Party pollsters Crosby Textor. The poll was conducted from August 6 to 29 through an online panel from a vast sample of 10,239, and includes results federally and for each state government. The federal poll has Labor leading 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 29%, Coalition 36%, Greens 13% and One Nation 6%. At state level:

• The poll joins RedBridge Group and Resolve Strategic in recording weak numbers for the Minns government in New South Wales, showing a 50-50 result on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 32%, Coalition 38% and Greens 12%, from a sample of 2047.

• The Coalition leads 52-48 in Victoria from primary votes of Labor 28%, Coalition 40% and Greens 14%, from a sample of 2024, which is likewise broadly in line with recent results from RedBridge Group and Resolve Strategic.

• The Liberal National Party leads 57-43 in Queensland from primary votes of Labor 24%, Coalition 42%, Greens 12%, One Nation 8% and Katter’s Australian Party 3%, from a sample of 1724, which lines up well with the most recent YouGov poll.

• Labor leads 55-45 in Western Australia from primary votes of Labor 37%, Liberal 29%, Nationals 3%, Greens 12% and One Nation 4%, from a sample of 878. Again, this sits well with the most recent other poll from the state, conducted for the Liberal Party by Freshwater Strategy in July from a sample of 1000 and published in The West Australian, which had Labor leading 56-44 from primary votes of Labor 39%, Liberal 33%, Nationals 5% and Greens 12%.

• In the first poll result of any substance from the state since the March 2022 election, Labor leads 60-40 in South Australia from primary votes of Labor 41%, Liberal 28%, Greens 11% and One Nation 5%, from a sample of 856. The Liberal leadership change occurred in the first week of the poll’s three-week survey period.

• A Tasmanian sample of 786 finds both major parties down from the March election result, Liberal from 36.7% to 32% and Labor from 29.0% to 23%, with the Greens steady on 14% (13.9% at the election) and the Jacqui Lambie Network up from 6.7% to 11% – though most of the survey period predated the party’s recent implosion.

And the rest

• The University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has results of polling conducted by YouGov in June concerning the US alliance and related matters of regional strategy, conducted in conjunction with polling in the US and Japan. Together with an Essential Research poll in July, it points to a softening in attitudes towards Donald Trump, with 26% now rating that Australia should withdraw from the alliance if he wins, down from 37% last year. However, 46% would be “very concerned about the state of US democracy. Twenty per cent of Australian respondents felt US handling of China was too aggressive, compared with only 9% in Japan and 10% in the US, and 40% agreed Australia should send military forces “to help the United States defend Taiwan … if China attacks”, down six from last year, with 32% disagreeing, up ten. Respondents in all three countries were asked if it were “a good idea for Australia to have nuclear-powered submarines”: 51% of Australians agreed while 19% disagreed, compared with 35% and 16% of Americans daring to venture an opinion one way or the other. The survey was conducted from June 17 to 25, from sample of a little over 1000 in each country.

• JWS Research has the results of its latest quarterly True Issues survey on issue salience. Cost of living remains by far the issue most frequently invoked as being among the “most important issues the Australian government should focus on”, despite a six-point drop since May. The survey also finds a net minus 22 rating for direction of the national economy, down two on May and the equal worst result going back to the series’ inception in 2013.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

968 thoughts on “Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread)”

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  1. Almost certainly Catprog, and I think its worth reminding that under the ATT (which Australia is certainly under), state party is prohibited from transferring weapons “if it has knowledge at the time of authorization that arms or items would be used in the commission of genocide, crimes against humanity, grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions of 1949, attacks directed against civilian objects or civilians protected as such, or other war crimes as defined by international agreements to which they are a Party.”.

    But hey, money is money 🙂

    Also I feeeeel like when you say “massive Trot” its not exactly being said in an endearing fashion Arky 😉

    Unless she is taller then the average trot, or more dense?

  2. William, reckon Eddy’s endorsement of bombing a conference at 4:20pm might need deletion and a ban or at least a stern talking-to although it might be too late to avoid someone from the AFP just quietly checking up that “Eddy” isn’t someone who actually has access to explosives.

  3. Officer, officer! Theres also a whole bunch of people who may or may not be planning on engaging in actions contravening international law, or engaging in the illegal trade of arms!

    I even have an address; 1 Convention Centre Place, South Wharf Victoria 3006

    Hurry before they get away! 🙂

  5. I notice the Greens are not condemning the shit bag throwers. They are consistent, they didn’t condemn Hamas when they crossed the border to murder, rape and kidnap innocent Israel citizens.

  6. I have already expressed my view that Harris won the US debate. For those who didn’t see it some articles now coming out on “who won the debate” are saying clearly: Harris won.

    Politico – “Harris won and it wasn’t close”
    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/11/harris-biden-debate-winner-takeaways-00178442

    New York Times – “Trump Rattled by Sharp Harris”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/politics/trump-harris-debate-who-won.html

  7. Hey Leader, shame they did 🙂

    “One month after the terrorist acts by Hamas into Israel, the Australian Greens mourn the over 1400 innocent Israelis who lost their lives. There is no excuse, no justification and no celebration that can be found in attacks that deliberately targeted and sought to traumatise civilian communities. This was not an act of resistance, nor a legitimate military offensive. This was a terrorist act and we will continue to condemn it as such.”

    Try again 😉

  8. I don’t support violence-seeking anarchists.

    I support peaceful rallies and protest against war and conflict – the more people who fill the streets the better.

  10. Leader, try again 🙂

    “Amid reports of civilian deaths in Israel and Palestine, there must be an immediate ceasefire between the State of Israel and Hamas and an end to the occupation to ensure a lasting peace. The premeditated targeting of civilians by Hamas is a war crime, as is the bombing of Palestinian civilians by the State of Israel. All perpetrators of war crimes in this conflict must be held to account for their actions in accordance with international law. The Greens condemn the attacks and we condemn the occupation.

    2023-10-11 Adam Bandt

    Unless you think calling out actions as a warcrime just isnt condemny enough 🙂

  11. For Lindsey Graham, there was only one word for Donald Trump’s Tuesday night debate performance against Kamala Harris: “Disaster.” Trump was unprepared, and his debate team should be fired, Graham told Tim Miller, host of The Bulwark Podcast.
    However, other right-wing figures claimed it was the debate anchors who were the villains of the night, making it into a “three-on-one attack” on Trump—as the former president himself put it, declining to commit to a second debate.

  12. bout two-thirds of voters say Vice President Kamala Harris won the debate Tuesday night, according to a flash poll. CNN conducted an instant poll following Tuesday night’s presidential debate that suggested Harris won the discussion, with 63 percent pointing toward her success.
    The poll has a 5.4 percent margin of error, and it suggests that only 37 percent of debate watchers believed former President Donald Trump won the first—and potentially only—nominee meet-up. Prior to the debate, CNN showed a 50-50 split for expectations of who would win.

  16. Catprog says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2024 at 3:53 pm
    “The Greens complaining about Labor attempting to work with parties other than The Greens is asinine. The government of the day is attempting to get legislation passed and will work with those that modify it least. If The Greens or the Coalition aren’t happy with progress then they can work with Labor. If they are happy with the lack of policy progress, then carry on”

    By work with Labor you of course mean ‘pass what ever Labor gives them with nothing in return right’?

    _________

    No actually. The Greens have some good policy that I hope gets included. I even posted last night on what I think I would like to see included in the superannuation changes. And the challenge due to the cross bench support required.

  21. LB I’ve been to a few anti war protests in my time but none of them involved flinging balloons with acid inside at police or punching horses. I have zero respect for people using these tactics, even if their cause is just. The Greens calling for an inquiry about the police response whilst silent on some protestors behaviour is disgraceful, but anything will do to get a bit of media -look at me-attention for the Greens these days. No limits. Violence begets violence in any form. Sorry LB, I think you are out of whack with this one. Cheers

  25. Diogenes: Premier Peter Malinauskas, responding outside parliament, echoed Opposition Leader Vincent Tarzia’s call for Mr Speirs to report the footage to authorities if he believed it to be a deepfake.
    “As Vincent Tarzia himself has said, if this is a deepfake it’s really got to be reported to South Australian Police,” he said. “And if it’s not reported to South Australian Police, that probably tells you everything you need to know.”
    Mr Malinauskas accused the Liberals of leaking against their own, saying he did “feel for someone who’s a victim of that”. “Whether the images of Mr Speirs are fake or real, clearly it’s pretty obvious that someone from the Liberal Party has leaked it against him,” he said. “I don’t think anyone really wants to find themselves in those circumstances.”
    Prior to the release of the statement, manager of government business Tom Koutsantonis had called on Mr Speirs to return to work given his insistence that the video is fake. “If he’s done nothing wrong and he’s innocent, he should come to work,” he said. “If there’s another reason for him not to come to work, what is it? “And look, if the video is real and Mr Speirs does need some help, we’d all understand that, we’re all human. But you can’t have it both ways.”

  26. Despite the pretty awful debate (apart from the I’m speaking moment), my prediction is polling doesn’t change much, and Trump still wins the election.

    I would maybe put money on it, but you guys haven’t banned gambling ads and I’m underage, so…

  28. ‘The reasons of the primary judge were extremely brief, consisting of five paragraphs.’

    This is as close as it gets to a judicial rap on the knuckles; similar to Dyson Heydon’s reference to the length of Lionel Murphy’s judgements when the former was agitating to join
    the High Court bench, and which Howard willingly obliged. It’s a shame about how both of them ended their careers.

    https://www.hcourt.gov.au/assets/publications/judgment-summaries/2024/hca-34-2024-09-11.pdf

  29. ‘Confessions says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2024 at 6:36 pm

    In non-debate news, I was very pleased to see Alex Greenwich’s defamation win against Mark Latham over a homophobic tweet that riled Latham’s homophobe supporters into action against Greenwich with all kinds of threats and abuse.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/alex-greenwich-wins-defamation-case-against-mark-latham-20240910-p5k9c1.html

    Hopefully Latham will think twice now what he tweets about his opponents.’
    ————–
    Plus one. A great outcome, IMO.

  30. There is an article in the Guardian about the interaction between Sofronoff and Albrechtsen. How can this bloke not be found to be corrupt?

  31. Was relatively close to where the action was at lunchtime (without being close enough to be in range of either pepper spray or hurled manure) and noticed some fresh graffiti referring to things in various southeast Asian countries, including the Communist Party of Thailand (Maoist). Maybe news is slow to reach the comrades this far south because (according to Wikipedia) the CPT(M) has been defunct for more than 30 years.

  34. ‘Granny Anny says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2024 at 7:24 pm

    There is an article in the Guardian about the interaction between Sofronoff and Albrechtsen. How can this bloke not be found to be corrupt?’
    ———————–
    Rhetorical questions abound.

  37. Thats ok Leader, you can admit you were wrong on both counts 🙂

    Also can someone translate for me?

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/video/2024/sep/11/skibidi-payman-opposes-social-age-limit-in-speech-to-gen-z-and-gen-alpha-video

    To the sigmas of Australia, I say that this goofy air government have been capping not just now, but for a long time.

    A few of you may remember when they said there’ll be no Fanum tax under the government I lead.

    They’re capaholics. They’re also yapaholics.

    They yap non-stop about how their cost of living measures are changing lives for all Australians – just put the fries in the bag, lil bro!

    They tell us that they’re locked in on improving the housing situation in this country. They must have brain rot from watching too much Kai Cenat and forgot about their plans to ban social media for kids under 14.

    If that becomes law, you can forgor skull emoji all about watching Duke Dennis or catching a dub with the bros on board.

    Chat, is this prime minister serious? Even though he’s the prime minister of Australia, sometimes it feels like he’s the CEO of Ohio.

    I would be taking a L if I did not mention the opps who want to cut WA, gas and services, tax. The decision voters will be making in a few months time will be between a mid government, a dog water opposition, or a crossbench that will mock both of them. Though some of you cannot yet vote, I hope when you do it will be in a more goated Australia for a government with more aura.

    Skibidi.

  40. Payman wants the life sheep exports to go ahead.

    Surprise surprise!
    Another Labor vote shifting stunt.
    They must think voters are stupid. /s

  42. Townsville would have killed (har har) to have it. Or hell, why not SA given the supposed prominence of Pyne and proximity to something approach production centres?

  43. Payman comes from the Middle East where killing your own sheep is traditional.In time, as older generations fade away they will be less keen on doing that. When I was a kid everyone had chooks and the roosters had their heads chopped off and became the Sunday roast. People don’t do that any more.

  44. Lordbain:

    Also can someone translate for me?

    Partially… I think a few of my brain cells just committed suicide trying to parse that. I seem to have hit the age where I no longer understand teenage slang.

    “Brainrot” is the way 14 yr olds talk on TikTok, named for obvious reason. I know “goated” comes from GOAT (acronym for “greatest of all time”, variously used for LeBron James, Nathan Lyon and plenty of others). “Mid” = not great, not terrible. “Chat” would be the social group chat that seems to be the 2020’s reinvention of MSN. “Sigma” comes out of the alpha / beta / etc classification of men that Neil Strauss and Andrew Tate made much more popular than it ever deserved to be – refers to men who exist outside that hierarchy. “Skibidi” may or may not be a reference to this god-awful one hit wonder from 1995.

    How any of that relates to federal politics, I haven’t got a clue. It’s cringe af lol. (Oh gawd, now I’m doing it.) I feel sorry for whoever had to type that into Hansard.

    Oh, and the last SA Lib leader got videoed racking up lines, or alternatively it might have been a deepfake. I feel like that last sentence was written in brainrot, too. Did someone put magic mushrooms in my coffee?

  45. The acid was low level acid and the shit was horse manure supplied by the police. The horses, riot squad, capsicum spray, rubber bullets and stun grenades were also supplied by the police.

    “ I support peaceful rallies and protest against war and conflict – the more people who fill the streets the better.”

    Rex Douglas, citizens have the right to engage in peaceful protests but governments just ignore them. And it doesn’t matter how many people fill the streets. The more than half a million citizens who protested peacefully across Australia agains the Iraq War were ignored and called a ‘mob’ by Howard. In contrast, the violence of the Vietnam War protests was more effective.

    When peaceful anti-war protests go on for month after month and are just ignored, the frustration and anger will build and build until inevitably violence will erupt.

    It was a pretty stupid idea to hold a weapons of war expo in Melbourne at this time.

  47. Eddy says:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2024 at 9:14 pm
    The acid was low level acid and the shit was horse manure supplied by the police. The horses, riot squad, capsicum spray, rubber bullets and stun grenades were also supplied by the police.

    “ I support peaceful rallies and protest against war and conflict – the more people who fill the streets the better.”

    Rex Douglas, citizens have the right to engage in peaceful protests but governments just ignore them. And it doesn’t matter how many people fill the streets. The more than half a million citizens who protested peacefully across Australia agains the Iraq War were ignored and called a ‘mob’ by Howard. In contrast, the violence of the Vietnam War protests was more effective.

    When peaceful anti-war protests go on for month after month and are just ignored, the frustration and anger will build and build until inevitably violence will erupt.

    It was a pretty stupid idea to hold a weapons of war expo in Melbourne at this time.

    _________

    1. “Low-level acid” is not a thing.

    2. No-one should throw acid.

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