A lot going on in the world of polling:
Resolve Strategic
Nine Newspapers has the regular monthly Resolve Strategic poll, which has Labor on 28% (down one), the Coalition on 37% (steady), the Greens on 13% (steady) and One Nation on 6% (steady). My estimate of two-party preferred from these results is 50-50, based on preference flows from the 2022 election. Anthony Albanese holds a 35-34 lead as preferred prime minister, after trailing 36-35 last time. Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up one to 35%, with poor and very poor at up two 53%, while Peter Dutton is respectively steady at 41% and up four to 42%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1614.
Accent Research/RedBridge Group MRP poll
Accent Research and RedBridge Group have published their second multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll, in what looks like being a regular quarterly series. This aims for a detailed projected election result by surveying a large national sample, in this case of 5976 surveyed from July 10 to August 27, and using demographic modelling to produce results for each electorate. The full report isn’t in the public domain as far as I can tell but it’s been covered on the ABC’s Insiders and in the Financial Review. UPDATE: Full report here.
The results are not encouraging for Labor: where the previous exercise rated Labor a strong chance of retaining majority government, with a floor of 73 seats and a further nine nine too close to call, they are now down to 64 with 14 too close to call, with the Coalition up from 53 to 59. The median prediction from a range of potential outcomes is that Labor will hold 69 seats, the Coalition 68, the Greens three and others ten. This is based on primary vote projections in line with the recent trend of national polling, with Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 38% and the Greens on 12%.
Five seats are rated as Coalition gains that weren’t last time, Gilmore, Lingiari, Lyons and Aston having moved from too-close-to-call and Paterson going from Labor retain to Coalition gain without passing go. Bruce, Dobell, Hunter, Casey, Tangney, McEwen and Bennelong go from Labor retain to too-close-to-call, while Coalition-held Deakin and Moore are no longer on their endangered list. However, the traffic is not all one way, with Casey in Victoria and Forde in Queensland going from Coalition retain to too-close-to-call. So far as the underlying model is concerned, it is presumably not a coincidence that both seats are on the metropolitan fringes.
The results show a mixed picture for the teals, who are reckoned to have gone backwards in the city, such that Curtin goes from too-close-to-call to Coalition retain and Goldstein goes from teal retain to Liberal gain, but forwards in the country, shifting Wannon from Coalition retain to too-close-to-call while maintaining Cowper as a teal gain. For the Greens, Ryan goes from retained to too-close-to-call while Brisbane does the opposite, with Melbourne and Griffith remaining Greens retains.
Whereas the last assessment was based on 2022 election boundaries, the latest one makes use of the redistribution proposals for New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Respectively, this takes the teal seat of North Sydney out of contention and moves Hughes from Coalition retain to too-close-to-call; costs Labor Higgins and moves Chisholm from Labor retain to too-close-to-call; and introduces Bullwinkel to the too-close-to-call column.
My routine caveat with MRP is that it handles major parties better than independents and minors, perhaps especially with what by MRP standards is fairly modest sample (a similar exercise before the last election involving some of the same personnel had a sample of 18,923). I am particularly dubious about its projection of a blowout Labor win against the Greens in Wills. There also seems reason to doubt its precision in relation to a demographic wild card like Lingiari.
Wolf & Smith federal and state polling
Also just out is an expansive national poll from a new outfit called Wolf & Smith, a “strategic campaign agency based in Sydney” that appears to involve Jim Reed, principal of Resolve Strategic and alumnus of Liberal Party pollsters Crosby Textor. The poll was conducted from August 6 to 29 through an online panel from a vast sample of 10,239, and includes results federally and for each state government. The federal poll has Labor leading 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 29%, Coalition 36%, Greens 13% and One Nation 6%. At state level:
• The poll joins RedBridge Group and Resolve Strategic in recording weak numbers for the Minns government in New South Wales, showing a 50-50 result on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 32%, Coalition 38% and Greens 12%, from a sample of 2047.
• The Coalition leads 52-48 in Victoria from primary votes of Labor 28%, Coalition 40% and Greens 14%, from a sample of 2024, which is likewise broadly in line with recent results from RedBridge Group and Resolve Strategic.
• The Liberal National Party leads 57-43 in Queensland from primary votes of Labor 24%, Coalition 42%, Greens 12%, One Nation 8% and Katter’s Australian Party 3%, from a sample of 1724, which lines up well with the most recent YouGov poll.
• Labor leads 55-45 in Western Australia from primary votes of Labor 37%, Liberal 29%, Nationals 3%, Greens 12% and One Nation 4%, from a sample of 878. Again, this sits well with the most recent other poll from the state, conducted for the Liberal Party by Freshwater Strategy in July from a sample of 1000 and published in The West Australian, which had Labor leading 56-44 from primary votes of Labor 39%, Liberal 33%, Nationals 5% and Greens 12%.
• In the first poll result of any substance from the state since the March 2022 election, Labor leads 60-40 in South Australia from primary votes of Labor 41%, Liberal 28%, Greens 11% and One Nation 5%, from a sample of 856. The Liberal leadership change occurred in the first week of the poll’s three-week survey period.
• A Tasmanian sample of 786 finds both major parties down from the March election result, Liberal from 36.7% to 32% and Labor from 29.0% to 23%, with the Greens steady on 14% (13.9% at the election) and the Jacqui Lambie Network up from 6.7% to 11% – though most of the survey period predated the party’s recent implosion.
And the rest
• The University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has results of polling conducted by YouGov in June concerning the US alliance and related matters of regional strategy, conducted in conjunction with polling in the US and Japan. Together with an Essential Research poll in July, it points to a softening in attitudes towards Donald Trump, with 26% now rating that Australia should withdraw from the alliance if he wins, down from 37% last year. However, 46% would be “very concerned about the state of US democracy. Twenty per cent of Australian respondents felt US handling of China was too aggressive, compared with only 9% in Japan and 10% in the US, and 40% agreed Australia should send military forces “to help the United States defend Taiwan … if China attacks”, down six from last year, with 32% disagreeing, up ten. Respondents in all three countries were asked if it were “a good idea for Australia to have nuclear-powered submarines”: 51% of Australians agreed while 19% disagreed, compared with 35% and 16% of Americans daring to venture an opinion one way or the other. The survey was conducted from June 17 to 25, from sample of a little over 1000 in each country.
• JWS Research has the results of its latest quarterly True Issues survey on issue salience. Cost of living remains by far the issue most frequently invoked as being among the “most important issues the Australian government should focus on”, despite a six-point drop since May. The survey also finds a net minus 22 rating for direction of the national economy, down two on May and the equal worst result going back to the series’ inception in 2013.
I still don’t get why Minns’ WFH directive isn’t coming up more often in his poor polling.
It’s a huge hip-pocket hit to a lot of voters, and it’s being used – as was intended – by the private sector to hit the hip pocket of a lot more voters during a cost of living crisis. Any cost of living measures from Minns and the federal government combined will be dwarfed by the costs for anyone forced to RTO as a result of that brain fart.
He’s made one very obvious big, unpopular captains call with a record of otherwise being fine but not doing much to shift things either way, and he’s started polling mediocre outcomes at the same time. Shouldn’t be a great shock as to why. Weeks later, the lead story on news.com.au is how other right-wingers have been inspired to try to do the same to more workers.
Looks like Wolf & Smith is a poll to keep an eye on. Serious actors involved in that outfit.
(from the last thread…)
Nadia: Vic Libs are a clown show too, but I reckon the SA branch is further down the barrel. Last time the Libs won in Vic in 2010, they had the narrowest possible majority, and then one of their MPs (Geoff Shaw) went rogue. When the SA Libs won in 2018, they had three such MPs. Same thing happened with the CLP’s single term in the NT – they wouldn’t want that to become a pattern.
In Tas and the ACT, I like Hare-Clark – it tickles my maths geek antennae. Having party candidates competing against each other for their share of the party vote adds a layer of complexity. Look up what Kevin Bonham likes to call the “Ginninderra effect”.
What you don’t want is “modified d’Hondt”, the first system the ACT used. European-style proportional representation, but somehow with preferences because we do that in Australia. I’ve never seen a single nice thing written about it on the internet.
SA Liberals are a shit show of hilariousness. From David Speirs, who just quit as their leader:
“ And so, a federal intervention, putting the party into administration, appointing a group of perhaps elder states people who have served in senior roles within the party to actually make decisions that are in the best interest of the party and consequently South Australia. I have sympathy with that approach.”
While Malinaukas is about to pass legislation to stop children under 14 from being damaged by social media, and SA leads the world in renewable energy. This guy will be Premier for as long as he likes. And he’s not threatened by the Greens. I wonder why?
From that lot, it would appear Dutton is holding up far better than he and his coalition had seriously expected after the initial announcement the day immediately after Albanese’s win at the last election.
“Labor is failing” (repeat,repeat,repeat)
The MSM, the ABC, social media and the Greens dutifully obliged.
Perception however clouded, has always been the main game and some operators have received good money to apply or smudge the lipstick on the pig as required.
To the Greens, if you want progressive legislation, perhaps review your strategies.
As the Lord of the north is so keen to say it works in the ACT.
Did Dutton actually say “it’s the recession I had to have” ?
I wonder how Australians would react if things got really tough ?
(Morrison may know the answer)
Inflation worked for the boomers and “honest John” Howard has been hoisted aloft ever since (without ever thanking Hawke/Keating for their contribution to his good luck).
There’s many a politician outside Australia musing “if I could be so lucky”.
Thanks for the new thread. We certainly needed it!
Good to have some Queensland polling of a sort. Suggests the numbers are baked in despite Miles attempting some rather progressive policies. A shame.
Regarding the proposed Sydney meet-up, I should be able to make the 4th or the 5th October.
“The median prediction from a range of potential outcomes is that Labor will hold 69 seats, the Coalition 68, the Greens three and others ten.”
Stand by for the Labor-Liberal coalition government.
Well, they’d never get into bed with those terrible Greens and Teals, would they?
You know it makes sense! 🙂
Well done, Angus!
“Company linked to Angus Taylor offered ‘generous’ offset calculation after illegal land clearing, FoI letters reveal”
“ A company connected to … Angus Taylor that was ordered to restore critically endangered grasslands was asked to do less than would have been required if it had sought approval before it poisoned them.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/sep/09/angus-taylor-jam-land-endangered-grasslands-ntwnfb
“Although the affirmative action rule’s 30th anniversary is not until 26 September, federal Labor will mark it with a special gathering this parliamentary sitting week – and by introducing the legislation underpinning a pay rise for childcare workers.”
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“Look at the scoreboard”, says Julia Gillard to the Coalition:
Women in federal parliament:
Labor: 52.4%
Coalition: 29.4%
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/09/julia-gillard-urges-labor-to-retain-50-female-quota-warning-women-still-at-risk-of-being-dragged-back
Upon reading the fr it would seem the emphasis on the predictive nature of the latest polling is “possibility”.
Aren’t they all.
There’s still plenty of work to do by the instigators of the “pumping up Dutton tyres” push before they achieve anything like their “wish”.
The scale of the “seat numbers” keeps Labor’s chance at the next election highly probable.
The “turn around” in the Teal momentum
is highly improbable.
The “stuck on 13” Greens is highly probable.
The something less than 40% Liberal is highly probable.
The anyone but Dutton is highly probable.
It remains highly probable that Labor will remain in power “after a haircut” from the perception influencers.
The “Labor is failing” meme will be strangled between now and next year’s election.
“It’s the vibe” ya know!
Australia has an “Australia summer to navigate”, the recession word bouncing around, the USA jittery and interest rate wanting to fall.
May 2025 is a long way off in the ” land of sweeping predictions”
goll: ‘Australia has an “Australia summer to navigate” …’
Will Albo hold a hose?
Stay tuned …
Assessment from Not-A-Bludger:
I would belatedly like to add my voice to the appreciation shown for Bill Shorten’s role in public life (Letters, September 7). His failure to win government because of his eminently sensible but sadly dangerous policies was a great disappointment to me, and the subsequent disastrous three years proved what a lost opportunity that was. It also, arguably, lead to the timidity being shown by this government to do anything even vaguely radical, especially in the face of Peter Dutton’s emulation of the Abbott style of opposition. Anthony Albanese is a decent man, but it seems politics and decency don’t mix so he is regarded as weak. What an indictment that is.
Mary Billing, Allambie Heights
Eddy:”Wow, you really think renters are some sort of poor scum. But just a question for you. If property investors are selling their excess properties because being a landlord is so tough, then why would another would be investor buy them?”
Sorry Eddy, I don’t think renters are poor scum. People rent for all sorts of reasons:convenience, waiting between houses being bought and sold or renovated etc. But also because they cannot afford to purchase a house and are therefore rent. It is a fact of life that some people are in that category.
If rent was the only return on a property investment, people would not investment in them. They do so because they can get a capital gain that makes it all worthwhile in the end. Renters actually get a good deal by renting in the meantime.
I have come across some instances where people have bought a house/apartment and left it vacant. The longest time I have come across is 14 years. It was sold to an overseas ‘investor’ who was happy to get his money out of his country of origin, and have no return except for the capital gain. The hassle of renting was just not worthwhile. Land tax will make them consider hanging on to the property.
So, in answer to your question, I doubt another investor would invest in them. Although at the lower end of the price range, the land tax is not that onerous, so maybe it will, but then again the original owners may decide to keep it.
The house sold by the investor could be bought by someone who is trading up from their current home, new entrants in the housing market after living at home and off course renters, who have saved their deposit.
This clown is finished 😡
“Queensland premier wedged as casino operator falters”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/sep/09/steven-miles-star-casino-queensland-bailout
If QLD Labor dare to help that corrupt casino outfit, they deserve to get wiped off the map 😡
@nadia88
Good run-down of the Greens targets. I don’t think Maribyrnong is in danger for Labor yet, but very weird things could happen if the Libs “put Labor last”. I also agree re-Hare Clark, it is just a messy system which elects unstable parliaments (think Tasmania). The whole “intra-party competition” part of it is stupid and encourages factionalism and a very bad attitude towards reaching voters in the electorate.
I am slowly becoming concerned about a 1990-type situation in VIC as well. A month ago I would have said Labor will GAIN Deakin in VIC, now I think it is a defensive game, where Deakin is the only plausible gain, especially if Sukkar retires. We are on the defensive in McEwen, Chisholm, Menzies (notional), Bruce and maybe Hawke to the Tories, Calwell to an Independent and Cooper, Wills, Macnamara and Fraser to the Greens.
Wannon under threat from Alex Dyson (IND), who made it one of the last declared seats in the previous election.
Will be his third run, first attempt was average for an independent, and he famously jumped off the breakwater, and it got shown on insiders. Second was too close to call.
Hopefully this year locals accept that change can happen, and it gets taken to a new level. Hard down here though because older demographic.
Backed by Climate 200, and there has also been a ‘Voices of’ for the last few elections as well.
https://www.voicesofwannon.net/
https://www.dysonforwannon.com/
Nearly two-thirds of the jobs created under the Albanese government are being funded by the taxpayer, with Jim Chalmers claiming there is “not any evidence” government spending is a major driver of inflation as he paves the way for putting more money into aged care, childcare, higher education and health ahead of the election.
Economists warn the expansion of the public service and care economy is making it harder for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates, despite the Treasurer on Sunday declaring his main economic objective is to put downward pressure on inflation.
Almost 575,000 people who joined the jobs market in the two years to June were employed in public sector or care economy roles, mostly funded by the government, including the healthcare, social welfare, education and disability sectors.
By contrast, an analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed there were close to 310,000 jobs added in the private sector in the first two years of the Albanese government.
Some industries experienced a decline in their headcount, with a reduction of more than 13,000 workers in the manufacturing sector and 17,000 fewer in the accommodation and hospitality sectors over the same period.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/labor-fuels-jobs-boom-with-public-sector-employment-surge/news-story/44df7bf52908f85c597dc04b31c00596?amp
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
David Crowe writes about a new poll which shows Australians are holding Labor responsible for fighting inflation despite public attacks on the Reserve Bank over higher interest rates, with 51 per cent of voters saying the government has the greatest role in halting the pressure on prices.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-blame-labor-for-inflation-woes-not-reserve-bank-poll-20240908-p5k8rg.html
In a powerful contribution, Ross Gittins destroys some lazy myths about demand, pricing and interest rates promulgated by economists and the media.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/if-there-s-no-price-gouging-how-come-interest-rates-are-so-high-20240908-p5k8sl.html
Alan Kohler suggests what Albanese and Chalmers should do next. He opines that The next election could be the last chance for decades to get a mandate for tax reform to improve economic efficiency and productivity, and to fund the NDIS, aged care and health care, the energy transition, a Future Made in Australia, submarines to keep America happy, and the universities that will be teaching fewer foreign students.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/09/09/alan-kohler-albanese-chalmers-reform
Sean Kelly says that Bill Shorten, in 2019, didn’t persuade voters that his changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax were needed. But it would be a mistake for this government to assume this means they can never be persuaded: since then, the context has changed. And the politician that finally makes those changes will be remembered for them. The question of what they believe simply won’t arise.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-biggest-gift-to-shorten-s-legacy-is-one-labor-doesn-t-have-on-its-side-20240908-p5k8sm.html
Eight years ago, South Australia’s renewable energy future was in doubt as an extraordinary statewide blackout saw recriminations flow. Now, writes Petra Stock, the state government is attempting to legislate a target of 100% renewable energy by 2027. Experts say the state’s approach could provide a template for what can be achieved elsewhere.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/sep/08/south-australia-renewable-energy-targets-international-template-solar-power
Australia will not reach net zero emissions by 2050 under the federal Coalition’s nuclear power plan, according to a comprehensive new report that puts the shift to 100% renewables at the centre of all plausible pathways to meet the global climate target, writes Sophie Vorrath after the CCA released its inaugural Sector Pathways Review last week.
https://johnmenadue.com/nuclear-wont-cut-it-cca-says-australia-must-go-all-in-on-renewables-to-meet-climate-targets/
In creating an integrity commission – the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) – the Albanese government was entrusted to ensure federal integrity. Instead it has wasted a fortune on a body that can’t or won’t do its job, posits Stephen Charles.
https://johnmenadue.com/the-naccs-refusal-to-consider-robodebt/
Qantas could be threatened with the forced sell-off of its low-cost Jetstar brand under a proposal from the Coalition that it says will lower airfares, but it is also likely to increase tensions between Canberra and the business community.
https://www.afr.com/companies/transport/coalition-wants-powers-to-force-qantas-to-divest-jetstar-20240823-p5k4pq
A company connected to former federal energy minister Angus Taylor that was ordered to restore critically endangered grasslands was asked to do less than would have been required if it had sought approval before it poisoned them. Lisa Cox tells us the federal environment department’s efforts to reach an agreement with Jam Land to compensate for the 28.5 hectares of clearing on a property in the New South Wales Monaro region are revealed in new documents released to Guardian Australia after a four-year freedom of information battle.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/sep/09/angus-taylor-jam-land-endangered-grasslands-ntwnfb
Less than $3bn of the Albanese government’s claimed $32bn housing plan has been disbursed for the direct construction of new homes, with no new dwellings understood to have yet been completed, writes Simon Benson.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/labors-32bn-housing-pledge-built-on-shaky-foundations/news-story/b60c4b6fa42cd27f4263dde9933ab2af
Nick McKenzie, David Marin-Guzman and Cameron Houston tell us that the CFMEU deals put the union in bed with bikies and the underworld. They provide us with a lot of disturbing information.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/cfmeu-deals-put-union-in-bed-with-bikies-and-the-underworld-20240905-p5k86v.html
Liberal moderate Katie Allen will attempt a political comeback in the Melbourne seat of Chisholm, securing the party’s endorsement and displacing the current candidate after her former inner-Melbourne seat of Higgins was abolished.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/allen-keeps-political-dream-alive-knocking-off-endorsed-candidate-20240908-p5k8so.html
Australians will gain more protection from financial scams under new laws that will impose fines of up to $50 million on banks, mobile networks and social media companies that fail to act on fraudulent schemes that fleece their customers. David Crowe says the reforms will force the companies to submit to an expanded federal authority that can compel them to refund customers who lose money, amid growing anger at scams that cost households at least $2.7 billion a year, according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/up-to-50m-fine-for-banks-telcos-social-media-firms-in-war-on-scams-20240908-p5k8ro.html
Justice Michael Lee has spoken about the use of suppression orders in court cases and has proposed a number of suggestions to improve matters.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/lehrmann-judge-s-six-ideas-to-fix-court-secrecy-20240908-p5k8u4.html
Coalition reforms have fixed the family court system. Labor should leave it be, urges George Brandis.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-reforms-have-fixed-the-family-court-system-labor-should-leave-it-be-20240906-p5k8j6.html
Tantalising new technology means electric cars could reshape the power grid – and make drivers money, explains Nick Toscano.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/batteries-on-wheels-imagine-earning-3000-a-year-from-your-electric-car-20240906-p5k8em.html
At the risk of turning off the fans who jumped first for EVs, Elon Musk has dug in with the world’s most prominent climate sceptic: Donald Trump, writes Nick O’Malley.
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/as-ev-sales-slump-elon-musk-comes-up-trumps-20240902-p5k75n.html
Bianca Denny says, “as a psychologist working in private practice, let me tell you that more psychology sessions is not the answer to our national mental health crisis.’
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/it-s-a-nice-idea-but-more-therapy-won-t-fix-our-growing-mental-health-crisis-20240904-p5k7s4.html
The Murdochs are fighting an attempt to televise their Succession-style legal battle in a row over the family’s right to privacy. Rupert Murdoch and his children are preparing for a blockbuster two-week trial that is likely to determine the future direction of the family’s media empire. Ha ha!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/murdoch-family-fights-attempt-to-televise-succession-style-legal-battle-20240907-p5k8q0.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Peter Broelman
Geoff Pryor
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
https://image.cagle.com/288251/830/rivers_white-house-guard-dog
Qantas could be threatened with the forced sell-off of its low-cost Jetstar brand under a proposal from the Coalition that it says will lower airfares, but it is also likely to increase tensions between Canberra and the business community.
Coalition transport spokeswoman Bridget McKenzie has called for the government to be handed forced divestiture powers in the aviation industry. The populist push to further regulate another high-profile industry ahead of a federal election expected in the first half of next year opens up a new front in the ongoing stoush between the country’s largest companies and the Opposition.
https://www.afr.com/companies/transport/coalition-wants-powers-to-force-qantas-to-divest-jetstar-20240823-p5k4pq
I believe that the voters in NSW have worked out Chris Minns. It’s become evident that he is is an old school NSW Right political hack of central casting, following in the footsteps of the previous discredited NSW Labor government. Minns has no real reform agenda and no vision. Minns appears most interested in putting off much needed reforms and currying favour with the Sydney elite, such as big business, gambling interests and radio stock jocks. imo Minns no. 1 priority in office appears to be putting himself in good stead for a cushy corporate gig post-politics. And this is all considering that the Opposition Leader Speakman is virtually unknown.
Freshwater poll commissioned for the West Australian out today says state labor is on track for a historic third term but will lose more than a dozen seats.
Given they are a galaxy in front no big issue.Going ok.
Fed gov failed housing policy is a rolled gold disaster and yet another vote killer.
Qantas could be threatened with the forced sell-off of its low-cost Jetstar brand under a proposal from the Coalition that it says will lower airfares, but it is also likely to increase tensions between Canberra and the business community.
_________________________________
The Coalition have got the Compass out, like a crouching Tiger with this Impulse. Ansett to go to work. It’ll be Bonza!
“In a major policy backflip, Victoria’s Labor government will exclude gas cooktops from the state’s net zero road map, with Premier Jacinta Allan saying households can choose when to switch to electric appliances.
And laws will be introduced to state parliament to encourage new offshore gas storage projects in a bid to boost dwindling supplies and reduce risks of energy shortages later this decade, “
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics-latest-victorian-premier-jacinta-allan-backflips-gas-cooktops-to-be-spared-from-states-net-zero-road-map/live-coverage/df98a9bd4ff268106c8b87b78243be6c
It’s all good.
Dutton is toast!…
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TOAST I TELLS YA!?!??!:’;)+&_&?!!
Mundo @ #26 Monday, September 9th, 2024 – 8:18 am
Soooo predictable 🙄
It’s the economy, stupid! Not any magical political powers Dutton has.
China’s policymakers need to focus on boosting domestic demand, Yi Gang, former head of the People’s Bank of China, said Friday at the Bund Summit in Shanghai. “I think right now they should focus on fighting the deflationary pressure,” Yi said, adding that “the key word is: how to improve domestic demand, how they can successfully deal with the situation of the real estate market as well as the local government debt problem, and influence the confidence of society.” “At this point, proactive fiscal policy and accommodative monetary policy are important,” he said.
In contrast to high inflation in the U.S. and Europe, China’s consumer prices fell in 2023 and have only picked up marginally so far this year as domestic demand remains lackluster. The latest CPI read, due out on Monday, is expected to tick up from 0.5% year-on-year growth in July to 0.70% in August, according economists polled by Reuters. That would still be only the fastest since February’s 0.7% CPI increase.
Yi said he expected the consumer price index to “converge above zero by the end of the year,” while the producer price index would likely reach zero, after negative prints in recent months. The core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% in July from a year ago, down from 0.6% in June and May.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/06/ex-pboc-head-china-should-focus-on-fighting-deflationary-pressure.html
‘Rebecca says:
Sunday, September 8, 2024 at 11:07 pm
There’s a certain type of centrist voter that seems to want a government that just competently maintains the status quo in the style of a steady-as-she-goes CEO of a business, but aside from a brief moment at the start of the 00s where the likes of Steve Bracks had some success, there’s just no record of it leading to electoral success….’
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Step 1. Convince yourself that the Albanese Labor Government has done nothing and is doing nothing to upset the status quo.
Step 2. Ignore anything and everything the Albanese Labor Government has achieved.
Step 3. Concoct an explanation of why there is a certain sort of centrist voter who supports the Labor Government because it represents the status quo.
Step 4. Explain how loving the status quo does not work electorally.
Here is a sample of Rebecca’s bag of doing nothing and ‘status quo’. Her premise is a crock.
43/30 is the first massive attempt by any Fed government to change the energy status quo.
$4.7 billion is the single biggest national effort to address DV
Comprehensive HR reform
Put more money into social housing than any Federal government this century.
First Federal Government in nearly two decades to run surpluses.
First Federal Government in 12 years to gain significant wage boosts for poorest paid workers in feminized industries.
A suite of direct reforms that empower and enable women. Child care. Paid Parental Leave.
A suite of reforms that improve health access and pricing.
It’s always the economy. No amount of distraction from Potato Head will convince me otherwise.
Sean Kelly as usual is worth reading; times change, we are now 2 election cycles from 2019, and assuming the same variables exist as justification to not go anywhere near tax is stupid…
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Monday, September 9, 2024 at 8:34 am
China’s policymakers need to focus on boosting domestic demand, Yi Gang, former head of the People’s Bank of China, said Friday at the Bund Summit in Shanghai. “I think right now they should focus on fighting the deflationary pressure,” Yi said,….’
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I assume he got the Comrades’ tick of approval before making that speech. It was generally pessimistic in tone.
Here is one for Rebecca to apply her political wisdom to.
Dutton knows something that the Greens can’t know because it simply does not fit with their ideology.
A large majority of Australians are either doing well out of their housing investment or will inherit from parents who are doing well out of their housing investment. Sure some of them are suffering short term interest rate pain. But the interest rate pain is out of all proportion to the monstrous capital gains they are raking in.
Which is why the LNP and Dutton are going to make a political virtue out of killing off all of Labor’s supply-side social housing reforms.
#weatheronPB
Pushing out the clouds,
the glare has fully risen,
taking full command.
Look at these Greenies and their silly solar power:
A remarkable thing happened in March this year. For the first time, the fossil fuel rich state of Texas generated more electricity from solar power than from coal.
Perhaps even more striking, on the early afternoon of May 14, Texas briefly hit 19.1 gigawatts of energy generation from solar farms. This set a new US-wide record according to figures from Grid Status, which tracks electricity generation data across the US.
https://www.ft.com/content/ef2f6f8e-60df-4ccd-8c4f-ef5cd0eb3176
I get the warm bit.
But I do wish the wet bit would get here pronto. The bush is as dry as toast. The wildflower season is severely truncated.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/sep/07/spring-forecast-bom-severe-weather-warning-nsw-victoria-tasmania
Yougov poll has 6 in 10 voters now supporting abolishing negative gear (either grandfathering or complete removal).
Note that this also includes a very slight majority of Coalition voters.
Its true that the housing market is basically split into 3; those who rent, those who have a property and a mortgage, and those who have paid it of.
However, to say that everyone in those 2 thirds is afraid of value loss is dumb; plenty of parents in that grouping that can see their kids suffering, plenty of good people who can see how this is hurting families, and plenty of people who can see that ever increasing property prices does nothing but harm the economy by locking funds into unproductive investments.
Also worth noting that there are more renters, and more people with a mortgage, then those who have paid of their house…
Mundo:
Monday, September 9, 2024 at 8:18 am
“When you stare into the abyss, the abyss stares back at you.” – Nietzsche.
Mavis, remember Maureen McGovern – there’s got to be a morning after.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Obviously some in Labor are getting nervous about the polls. I think the RBA board has made fundamental mistakes in the past three years, but criticising it won’t save Labor. People expect government to solve their problems.
This article confirms my suspicions from the start over AUKUS “Pillar Two”. It was invented not to help defend Australia, but to keep the AUKUS deal alive if Pillar One falls over and Australia gets no submarines.
The trouble is that, despite all the talk, there is little in AUKUS Pillar Two that Australia was not already getting. In some cases the only effect is to restrict us from importing from other countries. Jake Sullivan wants “announce-ables” for domestic US political purposes. He is concerned because there aren’t any after 3 years of AUKUS.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/white-house-pushes-for-aukus-to-move-to-pillar-two-weapons-focus-20240908-p5k8s5.html
Lars Von Trier:
Monday, September 9, 2024 at 9:28 am
Et tu, Lars? You’re showing your age.
FUBARsays:
Monday, September 9, 2024 at 8:14 am
“In a major policy backflip, Victoria’s Labor government will exclude gas cooktops from the state’s net zero road map, with Premier Jacinta Allan saying households can choose when to switch to electric appliances.
And laws will be introduced to state parliament to encourage new offshore gas storage projects in a bid to boost dwindling supplies and reduce risks of energy shortages later this decade.
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Well, well, well.
That’s hilarious. Especially the new offshore gas projects.
Lordbain: “Sean Kelly as usual is worth reading; times change, we are now 2 election cycles from 2019, and assuming the same variables exist as justification to not go anywhere near tax is stupid…”
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I never thought the proposed changes to negative gearing and the CGT discount were the main problem in 2019: the main issue was getting rid of the franking credit. It was being received by a surprisingly large number of taxpayers: I can’t recall the exact figures but it was well over half a million. Add spouses and adult offspring and there were perhaps more than one million voters affected.
And, unlike the neg gearing/CGT changes, there were to be no grandparenting arrangements, so all of those half a million or more people were to be hit by it right away. So the franking credit thing was the most significant grievance but, when combined with the neg gearing/CGT changes and some increased taxes on super that Shorten himself couldn’t remember were still in the policy platform, Labor ended up going into the 2019 election looking like a party that wanted to tax the bejeesus out of people who had accumulated/were attempting to accumulate some wealth for themselves and their families.
So, putting that disaster behind us, something could still be attempted in the neg gearing/CGT zone, but any government that ventures there needs to be very clear about what they are trying to achieve. When the Hawke-Keating Government abolished future neg gearing of rental property in 1985 (which coincided with the introduction of CGT for the first time), their intention was largely to get rid of something that they (and the Treasury) felt had become a bit too much of a tax rort, allowing people on high salaries unduly to reduce their salaries for tax purposes. It was not intended to do anything at all to the rental market: the Government hoped that the available capital gains and the then CGT discount (based on the rate of inflation, which was a bit higher in those days that it has been in more recent decades) would provide enough of an incentive to keep landlords investing in the sector.
Then, a couple of years after the changes were introduced, vacancy rates in Sydney tightened significantly and rents rised quite steeply. Whether or not this had anything much to do with the tax changes was uncertain. But Keating’s one-time mentor, the highly uncharismatic NSW Premier Barrie Unsworth, was panicking that he would lose the upcoming state election and persuaded Keating to push in Cabinet for negative gearing to be reinstated.
And that’s always going to be the risk to any government that tries to muck around with these things. There seems to be a myth developing among the left that getting rid of negative gearing would actually lower the price of rental housing and make it more readily available. This of course is total crap. What really affects the availability of rental housing is the extent to which investors can see the prospect of juicy capital gains. The annual average net return on rental housing is in the range of 2-4 per cent: that is, less than one can earn from long-term deposits. Negative gearing can increase this return a bit, but that’s dependent on the investor having another large source of taxable income that they want to offset. If you abolish negative gearing you will lose those investors, but might gain a bunch of other investors who are only interested in capital gains.
But if, as Labor was proposing to do in 2019, you abolish negative gearing and also rip into the CGT discount, you are risking making the secctor unattractive to all potential investors. Labor thought they had a good solution in still allowing neg gearing and the full CGT discount for investors in newly-built housing: an idea of particular appeal to their mates in the construction unions. But, in order to realise capital gains on such housing, an investor ultimately needs to be able to sell it to somebody. And, under Labor’s proposal, it was not possible for any potential purchaser to be an investor who would have access to neg gearing or the CGT discount. So the original investor would almost certainly have to sell the rental dwelling to home buyers. And two bedroom renters in large apartment buildings are generally not that attractive to most homebuyers except for older people who are downsizing. And there would be a constant process of housing built specifically for private rental then transitioning into owner-occupied housing, pushing the private rental market endlessly into greenfield sites that might be less well located for people who often don’t have cars.
So I thought the 2019 policy was pretty flawed. I think a better idea would be to look for a way of redirecting the revenue currently not collected as a result of the CGT discount towards the provision of affordable rental housing. I can think of lots of ways of doing this, some of which would involve providing some of that subsidy for landlords on an ongoing basis, rather than in a big lump when they finally dispose of the asset: which, among other benefits, would encourage them to offer long-term leases. (There are other reforms I’d make to CGT, which I’ve discussed in the past. But this post is already too long so I won’t outline them again.)
As for neg gearing: I don’t think it has anywhere near the impact on the housing market that many people seem to believe that it has. However, I think that the existing rules allow people to minimise their tax liabilities more than they should. So put an overall cap on the total amount by which a taxpayer can use it to minimise their other income: for the sake of argument, let’s say $50k per annum (but it could possibly be a little less). Problem solved IMO.
I have no problem with negative gearing on new builds. In fact, that should be encouraged to get more rental dwellings built. But on existing dwellings, it has a negative effect.
IMO, an excellent article on the efficacy of DVOs.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/09/marias-niece-sought-a-dvo-her-ex-partner-bought-an-axe-ntwnfb
LVT: “Mavis, remember Maureen McGovern – there’s got to be a morning after.”
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Maureen gave good advice, which I believe I should have often considered more carefully when having a night on the tiles.
Taylormade says:
Monday, September 9, 2024 at 9:37 am
Volvo have cancelled their plans to go 100% EV.
Fortescue is stopping buying carbon credits.
The Emperor has no clothes.
Boerwar @ #32 Monday, September 9th, 2024 – 8:47 am
I read an article on the weekend that spoke to various China experts and their general consensus was that the Covid shut-in had a severe chilling effect on the Chinese population, and due to their no longer having the income they had before, they pulled in their financial horns, which had been building a head of steam pre-Covid. Now they are much more financially cautious as a result. And the government is finding it extremely hard to get them to change their minds, as the former head of the People’s Bank is trying to encourage them to do in his opaque way, because they fear the worst happening again.
Not to mention that most Chinese wealth is tied up in the property they own and that market has nose-dived.
Dutton is proposing to cut all of Labor’s social housing initiatives and to cut personal income tax while leaving in place all the tax breaks on the family home. He will also promise to allow access to Super for a housing deposit.
How is that working out in the polling as per Bludger Track?
Plus 2.4%
You could add PHON’s changes to that because PHON will support all of the above.
Plus 2.1%.
The Greens want to get rid of all the housing tax breaks. They want effectively to nationalize the rental market. They want to raise an extra half trillion dollars out of company tax.
How is that working out in the polling as per Bludger Track?
Plus .3%.
So. In the Housing War between Dutton and Bandt how is it all coming along?
Oh look, a sophisticated discussion by experts in the field, of the effect of social media on Gen Z and Millennial Males (up to the 20′ mark). But what would I know, if it aligns with things I was trying to say, I’m ‘just’ a ‘Laborite’ 😐
https://youtu.be/mKd6-QvRI1w?si=dr5yJ_7TNJk8Z92o
(And no, I didn’t go looking for confirmation bias, I just happened to come across it as I listened to one of my favourite, informative podcasts this morning).