A lot going on in the world of polling:
Resolve Strategic
Nine Newspapers has the regular monthly Resolve Strategic poll, which has Labor on 28% (down one), the Coalition on 37% (steady), the Greens on 13% (steady) and One Nation on 6% (steady). My estimate of two-party preferred from these results is 50-50, based on preference flows from the 2022 election. Anthony Albanese holds a 35-34 lead as preferred prime minister, after trailing 36-35 last time. Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up one to 35%, with poor and very poor at up two 53%, while Peter Dutton is respectively steady at 41% and up four to 42%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1614.
Accent Research/RedBridge Group MRP poll
Accent Research and RedBridge Group have published their second multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll, in what looks like being a regular quarterly series. This aims for a detailed projected election result by surveying a large national sample, in this case of 5976 surveyed from July 10 to August 27, and using demographic modelling to produce results for each electorate. The full report isn’t in the public domain as far as I can tell but it’s been covered on the ABC’s Insiders and in the Financial Review. UPDATE: Full report here.
The results are not encouraging for Labor: where the previous exercise rated Labor a strong chance of retaining majority government, with a floor of 73 seats and a further nine nine too close to call, they are now down to 64 with 14 too close to call, with the Coalition up from 53 to 59. The median prediction from a range of potential outcomes is that Labor will hold 69 seats, the Coalition 68, the Greens three and others ten. This is based on primary vote projections in line with the recent trend of national polling, with Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 38% and the Greens on 12%.
Five seats are rated as Coalition gains that weren’t last time, Gilmore, Lingiari, Lyons and Aston having moved from too-close-to-call and Paterson going from Labor retain to Coalition gain without passing go. Bruce, Dobell, Hunter, Casey, Tangney, McEwen and Bennelong go from Labor retain to too-close-to-call, while Coalition-held Deakin and Moore are no longer on their endangered list. However, the traffic is not all one way, with Casey in Victoria and Forde in Queensland going from Coalition retain to too-close-to-call. So far as the underlying model is concerned, it is presumably not a coincidence that both seats are on the metropolitan fringes.
The results show a mixed picture for the teals, who are reckoned to have gone backwards in the city, such that Curtin goes from too-close-to-call to Coalition retain and Goldstein goes from teal retain to Liberal gain, but forwards in the country, shifting Wannon from Coalition retain to too-close-to-call while maintaining Cowper as a teal gain. For the Greens, Ryan goes from retained to too-close-to-call while Brisbane does the opposite, with Melbourne and Griffith remaining Greens retains.
Whereas the last assessment was based on 2022 election boundaries, the latest one makes use of the redistribution proposals for New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Respectively, this takes the teal seat of North Sydney out of contention and moves Hughes from Coalition retain to too-close-to-call; costs Labor Higgins and moves Chisholm from Labor retain to too-close-to-call; and introduces Bullwinkel to the too-close-to-call column.
My routine caveat with MRP is that it handles major parties better than independents and minors, perhaps especially with what by MRP standards is fairly modest sample (a similar exercise before the last election involving some of the same personnel had a sample of 18,923). I am particularly dubious about its projection of a blowout Labor win against the Greens in Wills. There also seems reason to doubt its precision in relation to a demographic wild card like Lingiari.
Wolf & Smith federal and state polling
Also just out is an expansive national poll from a new outfit called Wolf & Smith, a “strategic campaign agency based in Sydney” that appears to involve Jim Reed, principal of Resolve Strategic and alumnus of Liberal Party pollsters Crosby Textor. The poll was conducted from August 6 to 29 through an online panel from a vast sample of 10,239, and includes results federally and for each state government. The federal poll has Labor leading 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 29%, Coalition 36%, Greens 13% and One Nation 6%. At state level:
• The poll joins RedBridge Group and Resolve Strategic in recording weak numbers for the Minns government in New South Wales, showing a 50-50 result on two-party preferred from primary votes of Labor 32%, Coalition 38% and Greens 12%, from a sample of 2047.
• The Coalition leads 52-48 in Victoria from primary votes of Labor 28%, Coalition 40% and Greens 14%, from a sample of 2024, which is likewise broadly in line with recent results from RedBridge Group and Resolve Strategic.
• The Liberal National Party leads 57-43 in Queensland from primary votes of Labor 24%, Coalition 42%, Greens 12%, One Nation 8% and Katter’s Australian Party 3%, from a sample of 1724, which lines up well with the most recent YouGov poll.
• Labor leads 55-45 in Western Australia from primary votes of Labor 37%, Liberal 29%, Nationals 3%, Greens 12% and One Nation 4%, from a sample of 878. Again, this sits well with the most recent other poll from the state, conducted for the Liberal Party by Freshwater Strategy in July from a sample of 1000 and published in The West Australian, which had Labor leading 56-44 from primary votes of Labor 39%, Liberal 33%, Nationals 5% and Greens 12%.
• In the first poll result of any substance from the state since the March 2022 election, Labor leads 60-40 in South Australia from primary votes of Labor 41%, Liberal 28%, Greens 11% and One Nation 5%, from a sample of 856. The Liberal leadership change occurred in the first week of the poll’s three-week survey period.
• A Tasmanian sample of 786 finds both major parties down from the March election result, Liberal from 36.7% to 32% and Labor from 29.0% to 23%, with the Greens steady on 14% (13.9% at the election) and the Jacqui Lambie Network up from 6.7% to 11% – though most of the survey period predated the party’s recent implosion.
And the rest
• The University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has results of polling conducted by YouGov in June concerning the US alliance and related matters of regional strategy, conducted in conjunction with polling in the US and Japan. Together with an Essential Research poll in July, it points to a softening in attitudes towards Donald Trump, with 26% now rating that Australia should withdraw from the alliance if he wins, down from 37% last year. However, 46% would be “very concerned about the state of US democracy. Twenty per cent of Australian respondents felt US handling of China was too aggressive, compared with only 9% in Japan and 10% in the US, and 40% agreed Australia should send military forces “to help the United States defend Taiwan … if China attacks”, down six from last year, with 32% disagreeing, up ten. Respondents in all three countries were asked if it were “a good idea for Australia to have nuclear-powered submarines”: 51% of Australians agreed while 19% disagreed, compared with 35% and 16% of Americans daring to venture an opinion one way or the other. The survey was conducted from June 17 to 25, from sample of a little over 1000 in each country.
• JWS Research has the results of its latest quarterly True Issues survey on issue salience. Cost of living remains by far the issue most frequently invoked as being among the “most important issues the Australian government should focus on”, despite a six-point drop since May. The survey also finds a net minus 22 rating for direction of the national economy, down two on May and the equal worst result going back to the series’ inception in 2013.
Lordbain, you are wrong.
The Greens have not condemn the shit throwers, in fact it appears they have been encouraging it.
“The government and the opposition have joined together in parliament to condemn the Greens’ involvement in pro-Palestinian protests, accusing the party of inflaming tensions of social cohesion.”
Eddy says:
Wednesday, September 11, 2024 at 9:33 pm
“Low-level acid” is not a thing.”
Tell it to 9news.com. They’re the ones reporting it as a thing.
_______
I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but your news is bad.
Leader, you first asserted that the Greens had not condemned Hamas; I pointed out they had.
You then asserted that the Greens waited a month to condemn Hamas; i showed comments within 48 hours of the even condemning Hamas actions as a war crime.
I did not say the Greens have condemned todays protests, merely noting you had been wrong on the above.
Try again 🙂
Granny Anny
It is not a matter of wanting to kill sheep for convenience. It is a ritual killing to commemorate Allah stopping Abraham from sacrificing Ishmael and sacrificing a lamb instead during the feast of Eid Al Adha. All the devout who can afford to do so are obliged to sacrifice a live and healthy animal. The poor receive gifts of the sacrificed meat. Of course Payman will support this through live exports
This is not going to disappear as backyard chooks did in Australia
Granny Anny
I couldn’t believe the news about Albrechtson and Sofranoff either. From the Guardian:
“ In the email sent by Harvey in August 2023, she described herself as an “interested observer” and expressed significant support for Sofronoff.
“We deeply value the respect and trust you’ve shown journalists over the years,” Harvey said.”
And
“ Other texts show Sofronoff texting Albrechtsen “strictly confidential” documents. On 6 May, he sent two pdfs which were described as the statements of two prosecutors involved in Lehrmann’s trial.
“Strictly confidential,” he said.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/sep/11/walter-sofronoff-janet-albrechtsen-emails-texts-lehrmann-trial-ntwnfb
A Victoria police spokesperson has stated:
“ officers have been sprayed with a liquid irritant, some of which has been identified as acid.”
So, I’m guessing low level acid equals a liquid irritant rather than a burn your face off kind of thing. But hey, just keep saying ‘acid’ over and over again.
Eddy says:
Wednesday, September 11, 2024 at 10:20 pm
A Victoria police spokesperson has stated:
“ officers have been sprayed with a liquid irritant, some of which has been identified as acid.”
So, I’m guessing low level acid equals a liquid irritant rather than a burn your face off kind of thing. But hey, just keep saying ‘acid’ over and over again.
__________
Sheesh. I am in rare agreement with Nath on this one. You just keep digging 🙂
I got sprayed with Low Level Acid today:
This same expo took place in Brisbane two years ago. This one was booked way before the Gaza Strip conflict.
There were protests two years ago. This time around that Palestine component brought the protest to another level.
There were obviously groups that participated, whose only goal was to cause chaos.
Big reactions against Governments across the world continues whether they be from the left, centre or right with major election impacts. Could this be caused by Nations being fleeced by Corporations and Multinationals in the area of taxation?
We have a situation where 25% of Australia’s ASX top 200 companies pay no tax. Today we see tax haven Ireland being forced to tax Apple an additional $21 billion because of the lousy deal they cooked up together. It involved Intellectual Property.
Apple brought in $9.33 billion in income from its Australian business in the 2021-22 financial year, according to the ATO. But it was able to reduce that figure to $459 million for its taxable income, meaning it paid just $137.3 million in taxes. At our Corporate tax rate of 30%, that should have been about $2.8 billion.
This is a common occurrence. Facebook paid just $30.2 million in tax despite bringing in over $1.15 billion in income in the same financial period.
The ATO’s corporate tax transparency report revealed last year that more than 800 large companies had paid no tax in 2021-22, same as the financial year preceding it.
We are a wealthy country but trickle down doesn’t seem to happening. These tax rules have been put in place by our Governments over the decades and need a full overhaul. Surely our voters would support a political party game to stop this tax minimisation.
Wealth trickles up, not down.
Not sure if it’s been reported: US inflation slows to 2.5%.
New thread.
Steve Davis @ 2.08pm
And if they ate feral pigs and cane toads as well as cats and dogs, too – maybe we should import some few thousand of these Haitians into Australia to help rid us of these feral animals.
In order to balance the diet there is a host of vegetation which could be eaten, as well!
https://www.betootaadvocate.com/breaking-news/taylor-swift-the-white-orders-her-army-to-war-with-donald-trump/
Oops, someone’s about to be Swifteed …
The Wolf & Smith poll link has broken, with a google search showing up no website or other link to the polling? Anyone know where it’s gone or have access? Thanks
I’ve fixed the link, which is here:
https://www.wolfandsmith.com/_files/ugd/78f0d6_e57dc0b5dbeb40beb34102811ab6374f.pdf
Thank you!