The federal redistributions for Victoria and Western Australia have been finalised, with only minor changes made to the proposals published in May. Higgins duly remains abolished, with adjustments made to the boundaries between Ballarat and Bendigo, Bendigo and Nicholls, Chisholm and Hotham, Corangamite and Wannon, and McEwen and Scullin. My estimates of the new margins suggest this increases the Labor margin from 3.5% to 3.7% in McEwen as compared with the original proposal, reduces it from 12.0% to 11.3% in Bendigo, and is barely measurable anywhere else.
In Western Australia, Fremantle and Tangney swap territory and Canning gets to keep the Shire of Waroona. The closest any of this comes to being of electoral interest is that Labor’s margin in Tangney is down from 2.9% on the proposed boundaries to 2.6%. The finalisation of the New South Wales boundaries can presumably be expected very shortly.
Preselection news:
• Bill Shorten announced yesterday he will bow out of politics at the next election, creating a vacancy in his safe Labor western Melbourne seat of Maribyrnong. Shorten will take up a position as vice-chancellor of the University of Canberra in February, which will presumably be close enough to the election that no by-election will be held. John Ferguson of The Australian reports the ascendant Left is hopeful of gaining the seat, with one potential contender being Jo Briskey, national political co-ordinator of the United Workers Union and unsuccessful candidate for the Brisbane seat of Bonner in 2019. Potential candidates from within Shorten’s own Right faction Australian Workers Union orbit include state minister Natalie Hutchins and former AWU official and political staffer Shannon Threlfall-Clarke.
• Labor’s candidate for the new seat of Bullwinkel on Perth’s eastern fringe will be Trish Cook, deputy president of the Shire of Mundaring. Cook was chosen ahead of widely touted front-runner Kyle McGinn, a member for the state upper house region of Mining and Pastoral who failed to secure a winnable position on the ticket for the March state election. Hamish Hastie of WAtoday reports the preselection was determined by the party’s national executive, at which “some in the party were surprised” since it would normally be left to the state party administration.
• Jeremy Neal, a paramedic and former Cairns councillor, won a Liberal National Party preselection vote last weekend to succeed retiring veteran Warren Entsch in the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt. The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reported rival contenders included “local aviation identity” Alana McKenna, who had the backing of Entsch.
• Mal Hingston, a defence contractor with “a long history of work in the manufacturing, mining, oil and gas industries”, has won Liberal preselection for the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, which will be vacated at the election with the retirement of Gavin Pearce. Earlier reports indicated there were five candidates, including Belle Binder, founder of a farm labour scheme, and Vonette Mead, Latrobe deputy mayor.
• Alex White of the Herald Sun reports Fiona Patten, who enjoyed a high profile as member of the state upper house with the Sex Party and Reason Australia from 2016 to 2022, has been announced as the lead Victorian Senate candidate of Legalise Cannabis party.
Doctor Doolittle, my understanding was Labor just handed government to the Liberals without even trying to negotiate with the Greens to form a minority government.
If I was a Tasmanian who voted for Labor, I would never forgive them.
Labor’s pathological hatred of the Greens is only equaled by Albanese’s fear of Dutton.
Doyley – There’s nothing about the “6000 sample” poll on the Redbridge site, so I can only go by the article linked to the AFR.
michael has checked the report and it states something in the order of a seat breakdwon of 69-68 seats ALP/LNP. Regardless, I’ll drop by the shop tomorrow and pick up the AFR and have a read.
6000 is a fine sample. We’ll wait for WB or KB to deal with during the week.
If its any consolation, they will likely keep the NACC, given they helped design it, and its working exactly as designed 🙂
Guys, the election is (almost certainly) over six months away. I think it’s a wee bit early to be trying to get exact seat counts from the available polling. By next year, the polls could well be indicating a comfortable victory for either side.
Surely we are not getting excited about individual seat polling again? They are mostly meaningless unless William says otherwise.
nadia88 at 9.21 pm
The 6,000 + poll reported in AFR suggests Labor’s national vote “has declined slightly since earlier this year”. Hardly news. It was over-hyped on Insiders.
It is entirely in line with the picture graph of polling shown in Dr Bonham’s recent review.
Of course, the media want to pretend something is new even if it isn’t. Journos are little better at reporting the future before it happens than the Reserve Bank is at predictions.
Speaking of Ipsos.
Their latest Issue monitor, now has the economy in 3rd place, with regard to Australian’s concerns.
The economy is usually LNP territory.
Link: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/publication/documents/2024-09/IM_Nat_August24_v1.pdf
Note: Ipsos stopped providing primaries/polling figures after the 2019 Fed election, but who know’s, they may resume.
Albanese will win a second term.
The only chance Dutton has of being PM is if the election was held this coming weekend. And I mean a chance not a certainty.
Today means nothing in a unique set of political conditions. Let us see how inflation goes over the next two months. It will go down. We then have to ponder the response from Bullock justifying holding rates steady even as inflation reduces. Luck with that.
I stand by my thinking. A complete amateur I may be but I am prepared to cop it if I am wrong but as far as I am concerned today is just for the noise makers and those who howl at the moon.
Labor on track for 69 seats
As many as 14 seats are too close to call based on the results by Accent Research and RedBridge Group, including Casey, Bruce, McEwen and Chisholm in Melbourne, Ryan in Brisbane, and Tangney in Perth.
The Coalition is estimated to be on track to win about 68 seats, with Labor on track to win 69. Labor currently has 78 seats in the lower house. It needs 76 or more to govern in its own right.
The results suggest the Greens could win three seats, with the teals and other independents taking 10.
Lordbain @ #995 Sunday, September 8th, 2024 – 9:53 pm
Oh dear. 🙄
‘the studies show’…followed by some post-modern persiflage.
Honestly, without one reference to any of these studies you expect me to simply roll over and believe you? Lol.
I guess I’ll have to just ignore the indictment the American Justice Department brought down against the RT/Russian influence operation, on social media, involving Tenet Media, Dave Rubin, Benny Johnson and Tim Poole; or the aggressive campaign that Donald Trump is running to win the votes of young men who mainly consume social media and not traditional media; or the influence people like Andrew Tate have had on young men. Yes? Or the fact that ASIO head, Mike Burgess, has commented about the effect social media is having on radicalising young men in Australia?
Honestly, Lordbain, I know you think you’re smart. I don’t.
Oh, and if The Greens don’t want Dutton, why are they facilitating him in parliament?
For once Mundo I am in full agreeance with you!
davidwh:
The huge MM-whatever one that was done a couple of weeks before the 2022 election was incredibly variable in its accuracy if I recall correctly, being on the money in some seats and way off-base in others. And that one was conducted way closer to election day than this one.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s a valuable addition to the polling data and certainly shouldn’t be dismissed, but the situation surely will have changed – for better or for worse – by the time we actually head out to vote. As an indicator of how the government is presently travelling, it’s very useful. As a predictor of what the House of Representatives will look like come early-to-mid 2025… not so much.
nadia88,
6000 is a fine sample but spread that out over every electorate in the country and the period it was conducted do give me some pause for thought. How relevant to September 8 is it.
Anyway, William will soon provide clarity and amateurs such as I will be very kindly put in our place I am sure,
Off to bed,
Good night to all.
Eddy at 9.58 pm
You are referring to the poor tactics of Tassie Labor after the election. That was dependent on the fiasco of Labor’s poor result.
The Lib government was on the nose, especially in the North where their stronghold is. Big drop in Lib primary of around 20% in Launceston and other even more conservative places.
Yet the Labor vote barely rose. If you can’t win on the electoral field, no amount of imagination afterwards will compensate.
Labor lost the chance to form a good government for Tassie when it failed to attract votes from those disaffected with the Libs, who after all promised to waste money on a chocolate fountain and a dodgy stadium.
davidwh @ #1005 Sunday, September 8th, 2024 – 9:59 pm
Exactly. Some people take individual polls along the journey to the next election, way too seriously. Some people are experts in reading tea leaves too, but what does that really mean?
nadia88:
Sunday, September 8, 2024 at 9:15 pm
[‘Howdy Mavis!
The ALP primary actually increased 3 pts from Resolve’s last poll.
The LNP went back a tick.
Not stunning figures for the ALP, but movement in their favour is positive.’]
Howdy back to you, Nadia. I missed that improvement in Labor’s PV. I think the election boils down to an “It’s Time” factor & of course the perception that crime is out of control. I wonder what Crisfulli will do about it. Perhaps he’ll build more prisons and youth detention centres.
“For Eddy, every nail is Labor, there for him to hammer.”
Cat momma, where did you get ‘him’ from. You don’t know me.
And your blind obsession with Labor is really weird. If they said tax the rich, you would agree. If they said tax the poor, you would agree. If they said tax everyone, you would agree. If they said tax no one, you would agree.
Labor listening to their supporters like you is part of their problem. You just keep on telling them how great they are doing when it’s pretty obvious to everyone else that they are weak and scared and ineffectual. You’ll still be singing from your Labor hymn book as your once great party sinks beneath the waves.
nadia88 says:
Sunday, September 8, 2024 at 9:58 pm
Doyley – There’s nothing about the “6000 sample” poll on the Redbridge site, so I can only go by the article linked to the AFR.
michael has checked the report and it states something in the order of a seat breakdwon of 69-68 seats ALP/LNP. Regardless, I’ll drop by the shop tomorrow and pick up the AFR and have a read.
6000 is a fine sample. We’ll wait for WB or KB to deal with during the week.
_______________________________
69 ALP – 68LNP (not going to happen, but wotevs….) leaves 14 seats for Indies and Greens. If that were to happen (and again, it won’t!) Seven would be Green, there are already 4, add Wills and McNamara and you only need one more. We really would have the Tasmanian situation again. Labor could do a deal with the Greens or do a Tasmanian Labor and opt to go to the opposition benches. That would be a fascinating result.
It won’t happen though as Ministers won’t willingly give up the trappings of office. Refusing to take it is odd enough, but walking away from it? Not on your Nelly.
Interesting times.
I am an active Green, not an ALP partisan, but I would remind you all we are yet to see Dutton on the campaign trail as the frontman. He will be terrible – as he was when he tried to roll Turnbull and gave us the insufferable Scotty from paper clips.
————-
Bill Shorten – a Vice Chancellor. He will be bored out of his brain in minutes. Love him or hate him, he’s an in the trenches guy – not an academic.
Agree Asha.
“For Eddy, every nail is Labor, there for him to hammer.”
Cat momma, where did you get ‘him’ from. You don’t know me. And your blind obsession with Labor is really weird. If they said tax the rich, you would agree. If they said tax the poor, you would agree. If they said tax everyone, you would agree. If they said tax no one, you would agree. Labor listening to their supporters like you is part of their problem. You just keep on telling them how great they are doing when it’s pretty obvious to everyone else that they are weak and scared and ineffectual. You’ll still be singing from your Labor hymn book as your once great party sinks beneath the waves.
C@T, the use of social media by bad actors does not equal your assertion that its due to the internet. I remember when it was TV, I remember when it was DND, I remember when it was comics and radio.
If you bother with history (which a person like you doesnt), then you would be aware that “bad behaviour” has been blamed on “new media and ideas” all the way back to the Greeks; but again, thats counting on you bothering to assume your wrong for once.
Also C@T, answer this question (you wont).
If Greens want Dutton, and
Labor cant win without the Greens,
Then what do the Greens need to do to screw over Labor? Because last time I checked, there isnt any murmurings of supporting Dutton.
But then, you are the definition of a no nothing no it all 🙂
Still waiting for you to admit you were wrong about Labors history with socialism (amongst pretty much everything you utter).
But I wont hold my breath, as your about as intelligent and accurate as BW, and I cannot wait till next election night when it becomes even clearer that Labor will depend even more on the Greens; youll obviously have an explanation then explaining why you were wrong about Green preferences right?
Mavis @ #1015 Sunday, September 8th, 2024 – 10:10 pm
Maybe do what Lia Finocchiaro is doing in the NT? Reintroducing spit hoods and reducing the age of criminal responsibility to 10. To appeal to the redneck voting demographic that put her in the top job.
Would it have been different in QLD if they had picked Dick or Fentiman?
Labor needs a head kicker!
This is the man!
https://jasonclare.com.au/
Take note you Labor operatives who lurk here.
You know it and I know it!
Let’s get it done!
Jesus wept.
A first-term leadership change is such a terrible idea that I’m flabbergasted there are people here who (I assume) genuinely have the ALP’s interests in mind suggesting it. Do you people have the memory of goldfish?
No doubt, the government has made mistakes this term. No doubt, there are things that they should be doing in order to be reelected next year.
Rolling Albanese is not one of those things.
I don’t agree with Doyley on everything – or even a lot of things – but they are absolutely correct when they say that the government’s present polling situation it’s mostly a reaction to economic conditions and that it really isn’t that bad a position to be in given the circumstances. Putting a new face on the government isn’t going to fix things. Most likely, it will make things worse. Possibly much worse.
Many a government has come back from worse polling than this. If it was a Coalition government that had its head just above the 50-50 mark six months out from an election, everyone would already be basically writing off the Labor opposition’s chances of winning.
No doubt, the government should be taking this decline seriously and doing all they can to get the upper hand. But, Christ, have a sense of perspective here.
By that logic Asha, theres a greater then 50 percent chance some in the cabinet are considering it, given their political acumen has been… lacking this term.
MABWMsays:
Sunday, September 8, 2024 at 10:11 pm
nadia88 says:
_______________________________
69 ALP – 68LNP (not going to happen, but wotevs….) leaves 14 seats for Indies and Greens. If that were to happen (and again, it won’t!) Seven would be Green, there are already 4, add Wills and McNamara and you only need one more. We really would have the Tasmanian situation again. Labor could do a deal with the Greens or do a Tasmanian Labor and opt to go to the opposition benches. That would be a fascinating result.
……
Interesting times.
=================================
Extremely interesting time MABWM.
For the Greens, I think Wills is a definate pick up next election. Possibly the adjoining seat of Cooper.
Now that Bill has resigned, Maribyrnong may be another Victorian seat the Greens are eyeing off (Bill was forced to preferences the last 2 elections, but the Greens only pulled 16% in 2022).
Macnamara has a strong Jewish voter bloc, and my gut feeling is they’ll put the Greens right down the bottom of the ballot paper, and work their way up. I’d say the seat will remain Labor.
Richmond (NSW) is another possible Green pick up.
Moreton (QLD), now that Mr Perrett has resigned, could be interesting too. Greens pulled 21% there in 2022, but given the strength of the LNP vote in QLD I’d say it will be tought for the Greens to get into the final 2.
Lordbain @ #1019 Sunday, September 8th, 2024 – 10:12 pm
#headdesk
Do you realise how MUCH you sound like a Republican and a Conservative!?! What next? It’s the video games! In fact, you will assert probably, that going back to the prehistoric era, there were violent individuals and when they watched animals stalking their prey it excited natural violent instincts in them. So you can’t blame social media today! 😆
You don’t do sophisticated analysis, obviously. Just parade your History degree around as proof of. Something.
Oh, and I’d give your commentary more serious credence if you knew the difference between ‘no’ and ‘know’. 😀
And, we thank you for your preferences. 😉
michael at 10.04 pm
If we ignore the dubious MRP methodology and focus on just one “too close to call seat” in Perth, Tangney, held by Sam Lim, what does it show?
Only once before 2022 in the previous 8 elections was the Lib preference vote less than 56%, just marginally in 1998 when Daryl Williams won with 55.9%.
The Libs are far from leaving the electoral wilderness if they are not well ahead in Tangney. And that poll ignores local factors, including a good Labor MP with a strong story to tell.
Its not a history degree though C@T?
And of course your one of those… its the internet C@T, a spelling mistake is hardly the end of the world.
Same with grammar mistakes such as, hypothetically, using commas where they don’t need to be.
Not that you make that mistake 😉
But yes, considering I literally mentioned earlier today that blaming the internet is as “accurate” as blaming video games, ie, its useless, then it demonstrates your reading capacity… lacking.
I know the Australian average is 7th year English, but you must be able to do better given your apparent intellectual talents 🙂
And how droll that you claim on the one hand that the Greens want Dutton, and then think your quippy with a response of thank you… truly a shining example of your generation of die hard Laborites that, much like the humble Dodo, havnt realised the world has left them behind, and they must either adapt or, in the case of you and BW, slowly, painfully, fade into extinction.
Because if these polls are to be believed, Labor has gone from 43.38% to 28 and dropping in only, what, 18 years?
Bye bye 🙂
This explains why ppty prices in Melbourne are not increasing like elsewhere
https://www.9news.com.au/national/melbourne-property-price-decreased-explained/dd5f0d22-090e-4b04-9bb3-7eba1a3a8919?OCID=Social-9newsM
@Nadia –
Interesting and Interestinger!
Are we witnessing the demise of the two party system in real time?
I say yes.
In September 2018, the polls showed the Shorten opposition on track to defeat the Morrison government in a 1996/2013-style landslide. We all know how that turned out.
MABWA, the two party system is dead. The two party system remains dead. And we have killed it. Yet its shadow still looms. How shall we comfort ourselves, the murderers of all murderers? What was holiest and mightiest of all that the world has yet owned has bled to death under our knives; who will wipe this blood off us? What water is there for us to clean ourselves?
Drama aside, we can only hope.
Yep, The Greens are on track to win SO many seats from Labor at the next federal election…that they couldn’t even stand candidates in 4/5 Wards on the Central Coast in the upcoming NSW Council election! Yet Labor has a full suite of 3 candidates in ALL 5 Wards.
I think some people need to re-evaluate their thinking about the strength of The Greens and to say that they will probably take this seat and that, and ignore the fact that The Greens are siding with militant unions with connections to Outlaw Motorcycle Gangs and who have been credibly accused of serious crimes, and also siding only with Palestine, to the point of believing that all this will have zero effect on the voters and they will instead be beguiled into voting for The Greens, is magical thinking at its best.
C@tmomma:
Sunday, September 8, 2024 at 10:12 pm
[‘Maybe do what Lia Finocchiaro is doing in the NT? Reintroducing spit hoods and reducing the age of criminal responsibility to 10. To appeal to the redneck voting demographic that put her in the top job.’]
And she’s a lawyer, becoming “the highest-ranking army cadet in the Northern Territory” – FUBAR will be pleased. I’ve also heard that she intends to send young men to boot camps. I don’t know what the
answer is but I doubt very much that the big stick approach will work.
Mavis at 10.10 pm
What proportion of the Qld electorate knows or recalls what they experienced last time they were convinced to believe it was “time” to give the LNP a go?
Hard to estimate, but would such ignorance be a big factor in the likely result on Oct 26?
Does Miles say mea culpa as much as Peter Beattie did?
Crisafulli does not seem like a man who is good at apologies.
“…and they will instead be beguiled into voting for The Greens, is magical thinking at its best”
I know the best way to get Labor voters back from the Greens… call them beguiled, call them fools, call them every name under the sun.
Keep it up C@T! It will work eventually… maybe… any day now 🙂
Just another thing of note with that Resolve poll this evening…
If you click on the “rest of Australia” tab, you’ll see the Green primary vote is now sitting at 17%.
Where is that vote concentrated? ie: The ACT, Tas, SA, or WA.
It is interesting the re-alignment in politics in Oz since the weekend of June 29/30 (The Fatima Payman debacle). This is the start point for the current polling malaise.
Lordbain,
Sorry to burst your smug little bubble, but I haven’t been here all day reading your eminence’s greasy proclamations. I’m actually doing something other than being a wiseacre on social media. Called, campaigning. Maybe you should try it sometime? Seeing as how you think you have all the answers. But I know you never will, because you’re just another one of those men adrift on social media, jacked in forever. 🙂
Bye bye, alright.
LABOR: Do not change your leader!
The general public finds those shenanigans appalling. They are able to overlook it when the LNP do it but they hold labor to account. It is unfair but it is true. The ALP is still being punished for 2010. Yet, the libs can froth at the mouth and say anything they want, they will still have the backing of the MSM. The ABC, falling over themselves to be balanced, won’t criticise the LNP. The SMH and the Age are openly barracking for the NeoCons. Ex-Chairman Costello- Independent Always!
My theory is the punters expect the LNP to be garbage time wasting seat warmers. They expect the ALP to be better and to do better.
Albo better find his mojo soon, or the ALP will be condemning us to PM Mini-Trumpotato.
C@t, please stop, for your own sake.
That Wolf + Smith poll is interesting, as it’s mostly state politics – SA even gets a section! Probably the first time anyone’s bothered to poll SA since the last election.
WA: Absolute carnage for Labor as they go crashing all the way down to… 2017 levels. So, the best ever result for Labor up to that time. I’ll take that – maybe Metronet will actually be finished while they’re still in govt.
SA: 60-40 to Labor. The SA Libs have (a) won majority govt and (b) held onto that majority for a full term exactly once in my lifetime, so that tracks. Apply that to the pendulum, and the Libs would have quite a decent chance of outnumbering the independents.
Vic: Libs up 52-48, despite everything. By the next election Labor will have been in for 12 years, so their time might just be up – same deal as 2010. Then again, they could cop a 7% swing and keep majority, as long as they don’t lose any more seats to the Greens – the pendulum vs Libs is pretty good for them.
NSW is kinda weird – last year Labor won the 2pp 54-46 but couldn’t get a majority, now they’re down to 50-50. Libs have more marginals than Labor, though, so who knows. Given the size of the cross-bench, they’re gonna have to get used to minority govt.
Qld: 57-43 to the forces of darkness, which matches most polling from there.
Tassie… ouch. Labor have gone backwards to just 23%. Not the best time to poll there (there’s 11% for JLN, which is in the process of disintegrating), but they’re not looking like coming back any time soon.
_______
So, which state branch of the two major parties is the most useless in Australia – SA Libs or Tas Labor?
C@T, why would I campaign when I am happy with my rep 🙂
But hey, maybe your onto something… might be time to tell Federal Labor though, because 32 to 28 in a single election cycle doesnt look like a winning strategy to me, and honestly if you guys loose to many votes, not even the Greens and left leaning Indies will save you 🙂
But maybe, for people like you, thats what you want from Labor… a party blaming everyone else but itself for self inflicted malaise…
MABWMsays:
Sunday, September 8, 2024 at 10:29 pm
@Nadia –
Interesting and Interestinger!
Are we witnessing the demise of the two party system in real time?
I say yes.
===========
I agree.
We saw a taste of it in the recent NT election where preference flows didn’t quite go the way they normally do. Gloves are coming off, especially between the ALP and Green voters.
Asha @ #1039 Sunday, September 8th, 2024 – 10:41 pm
Asha,
Explain to me then why I shouldn’t have responded to someone who jumped on a perfectly innocent statement I made about the fact that lonely young men on social media are being taken advantage of by bad actors, to repeatedly attempt to humiliate me?
Dont worry nadia, here in the territory the Greens and Labor are still rather friendly, why its simply a game of trying to politely but firmly outflank on the left policy wise here.
On that topic, if I dont get an ACT poll soon I will storm Parliament and demand Federal intervention…
Besides the fact that first term leadership changes just look messy, the other reason it’s inadvisable to change leaders is it’s not really fixing the problem. While, yes, Albanese is increasingly looked unfavourably, the qualities most disliked about him are qualities that are reflective of the party’s problems in general. Don’t think for a second the same issues would arise from a PM Chalmers or whatever. Albanese is a symptom of a bigger issue.
Unless the change of leader came with a substantial change in attitude by the federal party, you’re just changing the coat of paint.
Mavis @ #1033 Sunday, September 8th, 2024 – 10:34 pm
Why do people in political leadership positions think that what has failed before, will work this time?
The Central Coast has always been poor electoral territory for the Greens, and there’s a really obvious electoral repositioning going on away from spreading resources statewide to targeting winnable lower house seats in the cities. Getting excited that they’re not running seriously there is like the LNP getting excited about Labor not doing too well in the Shire or Labor getting excited about the LNP doing poorly in Grayndler, not that it ever stopped the rusted-ons from being that silly before when it came to the Greens.
Labor trying to run anti-union scare campaigns about militant unions is just plain wacky. It’s yet another one of these attempts at 4D chess that just make federal Labor look unserious.
Similarly, if one was hoping to run attack lines about the Greens being on the same side as the Liberals, one might think it would be a good idea to not race to come to a negotiated compromise deal with the Liberals on basically every major piece of legislation in the last quarter. It’s so obviously in-your-face hypocritical to anyone who’s even mildly switched on to anything happening in parliament, and again just comes across as a bit unserious.
That said, hoping Albanese gets ousted by Labor (as opposed to by the electorate) is wishful thinking in the extreme, and would be obvious political suicide. Turning to Clare in the aftermath of a defeat would be a good idea, though – if possibly a bit sensible for federal Labor, who dumped him in education despite his obvious talent. I still remember seeing Clare speak at the last election and thinking “god, he’s the first person I’ve seen a campaign speech from in a while who doesn’t make me want to vote for their opponents.”