US presidential election minus nine weeks

Kamala Harris’ win probability dropping in Nate Silver’s model. Also covered: UK polls since the election, still no new PM in France after the election and two German state elections.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.9-45.5 lead over Donald Trump. In my article for The Conversation last Friday, Harris led by 48.8-45.0. The next important US event is the debate between Harris and Trump next Tuesday (Wednesday at 11am AEST).

It is the Electoral College, not the national popular vote, that is decisive in presidential elections. The Electoral College is expected to be biased to Trump relative to the popular vote, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win in Silver’s model to be the Electoral College favourite.

Harris’ probability of winning the Electoral College in Silver’s model has dropped from 47% last Friday to 42%, with Trump now the favourite at a 58% chance to win. Trump’s win probability has increased every day in this model since August 27, and he’s now at his highest win probability since July 30. Current polling in the most important swing state (Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes) only gives Harris a one-point lead, and the model expects further declines for Harris as her convention bounce fades.

UK: no honeymoon for Starmer and Labour after election

At the July 4 UK general election, Labour won a thumping victory with 411 of the 650 House of Commons seats, to 121 Conservatives and 72 Liberal Democrats. This occurred despite Labour winning just 33.7% of the vote, to 23.7% for the Conservatives, 14.3% Reform (but only five seats), 12.2% Lib Dems and 6.7% Greens (four seats).

A new government would normally expect a polling honeymoon, but not this one. There haven’t been many voting intention polls since the election, but a late August BMG poll gave Labour just a 30-26 over the Conservatives with 19% for Reform. A late August More in Common poll gave PM Keir Starmer a net -16 approval rating, while a mid-August Opinium poll had Starmer at -6 after their first poll after the election gave him a +18 net approval. I believe the economic messages from Labour that there’s more pain ahead for the UK are backfiring.

France: still no PM two months after election

The French president (Emmanuel Macron) is the most important French politician, but the system still requires a PM who has the confidence of the lower house of parliament. At snap parliamentary elections that Macron called for June 30 and July 7, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39.

While without a majority before the election, Ensemble was in a far better position with 245 seats. On July 23, the NFP agreed on a PM candidate, Lucie Castets, but Macron has no interest in appointing her. A PM needs to be appointed by October 1, the deadline to submit a draft 2025 budget.

Far-right gains at two German state elections

German state elections occurred in Thuringia and Saxony last Sunday. Proportional representation with a 5% threshold was used. In Thuringia, the far-right AfD won 32 of the 88 seats (up ten since 2019), the conservative CDU 23 (up two), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 15 (new), the Left 12 (down 17) and the centre-left SPD six (down two). The Greens and pro-business FDP fell below the 5% threshold and were wiped out.

In Saxony, the CDU won 42 of the 120 seats (down three), the AfD 41 (up three), the BSW 15 (new), the SPD nine (down one), the Greens six (down six) and the Left six (down eight). In Thuringia, the AfD is well short of the 45 seats needed for a majority, and the most likely outcome is a non-AfD government. A year out from the next federal German election, the polls are grim for the current governing coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP.

717 comments on “US presidential election minus nine weeks”

Comments Page 3 of 15
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  1. On a different but same point. The average polling error, ie margin of error, in the US is 4%. Some of the state based gets out to 7%.

    When the country is literally split 50:50 polling doesn’t help much. Everything is inside the MOE and by definition either outcome is likely as the other.

    Also, the volatility of Harris’ polling, ie that it jumped so fast, means that there is absolutely a baked in amount of softness I’m her polling. Hence why some models are starting to Trumpward.

  3. “Yes, that was part of my long message I lost yesterday – about America-bashing being the favourite pastime of people from other Western nations (I mean you tend to expect it with Africa / Asia etc.). It’s a shame but I don’t expect it to change to more reasonable perspective as long as influences remain as they are.”

    The other favourite past-time of Westerners is to call US foreign policy benign. Those on the receiving end tend to have a realistic rather than a naive idealistic view of things.

  6. A germ of truth in his critique of Dick Cheyney – the former Halliburton and KBR executive made sure plenty of defence contracts went their way after he became VP.

    Sadly, Trump sullies this observation with the demented raving in the rest of the post

  7. “Not the chosen one…”…

    Trump explaining why allegations of him groping a woman on a plane are improbable. And at the same time, doubling down on speaking to the bro Andrew Tate mysoginist cohort (which is real).

    After repeatedly accusing Carroll of lying about her alleged encounter with Trump in a New York department store in 1996, the former president began detailing the allegations by Leeds.

    “She said I was making out with her. And then, after 15 minutes — and she changed her story a couple times, maybe it was quicker — then I grabbed her at a certain part and that’s when she had enough,” Trump told reporters as his lawyers looked on.

    “Think of the practicality of this: I’m famous, I’m in a plane, people are coming into the plane. And I’m looking at a woman, and I grab her and start kissing her and making out with her. What are the chances of that happening?”

    Trump then added: “And frankly — I know you’re going to say it’s a terrible thing to say — but it couldn’t have happened, it didn’t happen, and she would not have been the chosen one. She would not have been the chosen one.”

    https://www.axios.com/2024/09/06/trump-sexual-assault-e-jean-carroll

  8. About 90 business leaders with an open letter endorsing Kamala Harris – including James Murdoch!

    Following is the full letter backing Harris, along with the list of signatories:

    We endorse Kamala Harris’s election as President of the United States.

    Her election is the best way to support the continued strength, security, and reliability of our democracy and economy.

    With Kamala Harris in the White House, the business community can be confident that it will have a President who wants American industries to thrive. As a partner to President Biden, Vice President Harris has a strong record of advancing actions to spur business investment in the United States and ensure American businesses can compete and win in the global market.

    She will continue to advance fair and predictable policies that support the rule of law, stability, and a sound business environment, and she will strive to give every American the opportunity to pursue the American dream.

    Full list is here

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-endorsed-by-business-leaders/

  9. That almost 50% of Americans could even consider still voting for Trump is mindboggling. He’s seriously unhinged and his constant ramblings are incoherent. He’s a serial liar, a felon, an insurrectionist and a sex offender, yet half of America would still vote for him. Crazy stuff. If voted in these people really deserve what they get.

  11. The other favourite past-time of Westerners is to call US foreign policy benign.
    —————————
    I used to enjoy arguing the case here. But it isn’t the same without poroti onside. I don’t even have the ooomph to talk about the death and destruction caused by the Washington Consensus.

    I know a chap who went to work in Afghanistan in the reconstruction. Mostly roads. He said he went there to do good and for the money. He very quickly changed that to just “the money” as the purpose was clearly to line US company pockets – Halliburton in his case. He didn’t last long after that.

  12. Alexa selfishly wants CPU cycles wasted on AI large language model processing instead of crypto-mining.

    Trump’s “Global hub for cryptocurrencies” = grift central.

  13. “Fuck You Meow” is an unapologetic stance on women’s rights, gender equality, and personal freedom.

    A collaboration between members of the band Collide & Android Lust

    Written by kaRIN and Shikhee
    kaRIN: Vocals and lyrics
    Shikhee: Synths
    Statik: Guitar and Keyboards
    Mitty the cat: Meows
    Mixed and mastered by Statik at Noiseplus Studio
    Video: Humanoire / IG: @bestialnoire

    https://heelamusicproject.bandcamp.com

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2a1rZf7rGw

  14. My reactions to hearing that T****’s sentencing has been delayed, in order:
    (1) Shit. Not again.
    (2) It’s a rallying point for Harris and the Dems. “To Restore Justice Vote Harris.” Because once Harris wins, that will allow the judge to impose whatever punishment is appropriate for the crimes T**** committed, without having to regard him as a Presidential candidate from the USA’s second major political party.
    (3) Of course, we all know that if Harris wins, T**** will try to use the courts to overturn that victory, and that will complicate matters.
    (4) So, Harris has to win big, and the Dems down-ballot have to win big too.
    (5) This isn’t over by a long shot.

  20. Emerson had Biden a pt behind in TX in 2020. Trump won it by 5.5.

    They had Biden behind by 6 in 2020, he lost by 3.5.

    I’d thought, for no obvious reason I can recall, that state polling in the US is far more unreliable than national polling. Which has made me concerned when models put heavy importance on state polling to determine the EC bias.

  22. Disagree. The stage is being set for him to get off accountability-free. He’s got a lunatic judge in Florida. The Supreme Court covering his back in D.C.. In Georgia the prosecutor screwed her own case by becoming romantically involved with a team-member.

    And now NY has nothing happening until after the election. And prior to sentencing, a hearing on the immunity issue which will likely be appealed up to the Supreme Court if it doesn’t go Trump’s way.

    Heavy machinations everywhere all working to get Trump off the hook. 🙁

  23. Trump’s latest rambling meltdown reminds America of his predator past

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/6/2268364/-Trump-s-latest-rambling-meltdown-reminds-America-of-his-predator-past?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_8&pm_medium=web

    ”
    Trump: This whole thing started, with the political campaign of Harris—who’s having a bad time because she can’t talk—of Harris and Joe Biden. This was election interference, it all is. It’s all fabricated, but fabricated in front of very friendly judges for them and in very friendly areas for them, if you get a jury it’s very hard to win in a jury where you have three or four or five percent Republican votes. Very, very tough, actually.

    Trump, who has a long history of promoting and repeating debunked conspiracy theories, complained that the justice system was being used as a weapon against him to disrupt his presidential campaign.

    When not promoting a conspiracy about the legal system, Trump was casting aspersions on Carroll and other women who have accused him of sexual assault.

    Speaking about one unnamed woman, Trump said, “Frankly, I know you’re going to say it’s a terrible thing to say, but it couldn’t have happened, it didn’t happen, and she would not have been the chosen one, she would not have been the chosen one.”

  24. Just on Nate Silver, the fact that he may be employed by a bookmaker does not necessarily create a conflict of interest.

    I can assure fellow Bludgers that Silver does not need to manipulate the betting market on this election.

    So how is the most accurate indicator of probabilities playing:

    Trump 52%
    Harris 48%

    I can report that a few more betting agencies have aligned themselves with the above probabilities.

    The betting markets are rock solid and have established Trump as the leader.

  25. Any questions on betting I’m here to answer.

    I have Swans v GWS in the background.

    My tips on the AFL have been shocking, to say the least.

    I think I better stick to Rugby League lol

  28. I think claims that Texas & Florida are now in the mix are overstated
    ————————
    That’s my default position too.

    I do, however, have a hunch that state GOP voter suppression rules could be double edged and make LV polls a little more dodgy.

  29. ‘Team Katich says:
    Saturday, September 7, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    Emerson had Biden a pt behind in TX in 2020. Trump won it by 5.5.

    They had Biden behind by 6 in 2020, he lost by 3.5.

    I’d thought, for no obvious reason I can recall, that state polling in the US is far more unreliable than national polling. Which has made me concerned when models put heavy importance on state polling to determine the EC bias.’
    ———————
    I believe that the number of peeps polled for states are typically considerably less than the number of peeps polled nationally. I suspect this feeds straight into the MOEs expanding. I also suspect that this does not stop talking about the state polls as if they are as accurate as the national polls.

  31. Centre – the betting markets tend to be more of a reactive measure than proactive one, and their odds tend to reflect general polling and also the outlook of those betting. Partisans tend to bet on their own side because they are wishcasting rather than having any particular insight. In any event, odds of 52/48 two months out from polling day is basically telling me that the punters, as a group, have no idea who’s going to win.

  33. Hugoaugogo

    The betting market is proactive in the first instance, especially when markets are first framed. I can assure you these people are not stupid and have their sources of information. An example may be employing Nate Silver for one. Multi-millions of dollars will be changing hands at this election.

    The betting markets will be reactive to demand and new information as it comes to light. Something else worth noting for you, the source from the money bet is nearly always more important than the volume of money bet…

  35. If the betting markets are predicting a Trump win, time to shop around for some odds on Harris/Walz… Got to be worth a couple of pineapples…

  37. Sprocket, 538 are showing a slightly different set of numbers for Emerson with Harris behind by 3 in both TX and FL. Yougov has Harris behind by 5 in TX.

    BW, good pollsters have high sample numbers in targeted state polls. Similar to national poll samples. Yet no more (or even less) accurate.

  39. Badthinker says Saturday, September 7, 2024 at 4:14 pm

    Former Speaker Newt Gingrich:

    History may well show Gingrich to have done more damage to the US than any other in the country’s history.

  40. How hard is it for these pollsters with their divergent polls to poll the same damn states

    It’s great to know that Harris is within range in Texas but is there a single tracking poll that can help us understand what is happening in Pennsylvania? Georgia? All current data is crap and it’s not just that it’s telling us it’s close, every poll has some methodological flaw or is an outlier…jfc.

  43. “Dick Cheney isn’t from Texas.
    Neither is Liz Cheney.
    Why Texas? lol.”

    Probably because GW Bush is still popular, ‘Bush’ is an iconic name in Texas. Cheney’s history is closely tied to GWB’s, so it’s likely where he’d get taken the most notice of.

    Not that it will push Texas into Harris’s column, but without a robust pushback from GWB (unlikely to be one from him, although quiet about it he’s not a Trump fan either though I’m sure he’d never endorse Harris) it could move another 1% or so into Harris’s column there.

  45. Battleground States

    Patriot Polling 1-3 September

    My goodness me! Tied in 3 states, and Trump leads by 1 or 2 % in the other 4 states.

    This really is a 50-50 election!

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