US presidential election minus nine weeks

Kamala Harris’ win probability dropping in Nate Silver’s model. Also covered: UK polls since the election, still no new PM in France after the election and two German state elections.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.9-45.5 lead over Donald Trump. In my article for The Conversation last Friday, Harris led by 48.8-45.0. The next important US event is the debate between Harris and Trump next Tuesday (Wednesday at 11am AEST).

It is the Electoral College, not the national popular vote, that is decisive in presidential elections. The Electoral College is expected to be biased to Trump relative to the popular vote, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win in Silver’s model to be the Electoral College favourite.

Harris’ probability of winning the Electoral College in Silver’s model has dropped from 47% last Friday to 42%, with Trump now the favourite at a 58% chance to win. Trump’s win probability has increased every day in this model since August 27, and he’s now at his highest win probability since July 30. Current polling in the most important swing state (Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes) only gives Harris a one-point lead, and the model expects further declines for Harris as her convention bounce fades.

UK: no honeymoon for Starmer and Labour after election

At the July 4 UK general election, Labour won a thumping victory with 411 of the 650 House of Commons seats, to 121 Conservatives and 72 Liberal Democrats. This occurred despite Labour winning just 33.7% of the vote, to 23.7% for the Conservatives, 14.3% Reform (but only five seats), 12.2% Lib Dems and 6.7% Greens (four seats).

A new government would normally expect a polling honeymoon, but not this one. There haven’t been many voting intention polls since the election, but a late August BMG poll gave Labour just a 30-26 over the Conservatives with 19% for Reform. A late August More in Common poll gave PM Keir Starmer a net -16 approval rating, while a mid-August Opinium poll had Starmer at -6 after their first poll after the election gave him a +18 net approval. I believe the economic messages from Labour that there’s more pain ahead for the UK are backfiring.

France: still no PM two months after election

The French president (Emmanuel Macron) is the most important French politician, but the system still requires a PM who has the confidence of the lower house of parliament. At snap parliamentary elections that Macron called for June 30 and July 7, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39.

While without a majority before the election, Ensemble was in a far better position with 245 seats. On July 23, the NFP agreed on a PM candidate, Lucie Castets, but Macron has no interest in appointing her. A PM needs to be appointed by October 1, the deadline to submit a draft 2025 budget.

Far-right gains at two German state elections

German state elections occurred in Thuringia and Saxony last Sunday. Proportional representation with a 5% threshold was used. In Thuringia, the far-right AfD won 32 of the 88 seats (up ten since 2019), the conservative CDU 23 (up two), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 15 (new), the Left 12 (down 17) and the centre-left SPD six (down two). The Greens and pro-business FDP fell below the 5% threshold and were wiped out.

In Saxony, the CDU won 42 of the 120 seats (down three), the AfD 41 (up three), the BSW 15 (new), the SPD nine (down one), the Greens six (down six) and the Left six (down eight). In Thuringia, the AfD is well short of the 45 seats needed for a majority, and the most likely outcome is a non-AfD government. A year out from the next federal German election, the polls are grim for the current governing coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP.

717 comments on “US presidential election minus nine weeks”

Comments Page 14 of 15
1 … 13 14 15

  1. For those who question the value of the Taylor Swift endorsement, so far the tweet has 6 million likes and 1 million resends. That is in four hours.

    Any political party would kill for access to her fanbase.

  2. Today I looked further into this weird Trumpist meme that “Haitians are eating pet cats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio” and it’s basically the standard racist trope that “old white people don’t like young black people existing in their town”.

    There was interviews with local business owners, an owner of a metalworking business said that the new Haitian workers were excellent at their jobs and didn’t have the same problems of the locals of showing up to work high on drugs and alcohol. And the church leaders were thrilled at Haitian families showing up to services regularly.

    Then you get the “community concern meetings” dominated by 50+ year old white people saying the usual “I’m not racist, but…” arguments as to why Haitians should not be allowed in their vicinity.

    The best argument they have was that apparently a Haitian was involved in a traffic accident with a school bus that tragically resulted in the death of a (white) 11-year old boy and the far-right treat that as a deliberate murder.

    So now the right wing meme is that they catch and eat pets, like other “weird foreigners” like Koreans. It’s pathetic.

  3. Tim Miller was in the spin room after the debate.

    WHEN IT COMES TO SPIN ROOMS there is one unimpeachable truism that political hacks of all stripes can agree on: A winning candidate needn’t show up there.

    So when the Secret Service arrived at the Pennsylvania Convention Center after Tuesday night’s presidential debate across the street from the National Constitution Center, the room began to buzz. We all knew which of the night’s two combatants felt compelled to appear before the assembled press.

    The one who spent the evening on the receiving end of a spanking.

    …

    Standing in the back, I tried to get in the mix, shouting repeatedly—to one communications staffer’s great annoyance—about Trump’s inability even to look in the alpha dog vice president’s general direction. “Why wouldn’t you even look at her?” I yelled out again and again.

    https://www.thebulwark.com/p/inside-trump-spin-room-from-hell-presidential-debate

    And you can hear him in the background yelling here:
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1833710589014896653

  4. Thanks sprocket_.

    It’s too little too late from the NYT, as far as I’m concerned. When it comes to T****, they suffer from a lack of courage and integrity. None of what Harris said or did today was new. None of it. The only difference today was that he was forced to stand there and listen.

    Maybe it will convince some. I suppose there’s that.

  5. OK, taking a break from this debate for a second to give my thoughts so far (it’s a “commercial break ATM.)

    They both started off pretty flat. Trump started strong because he stayed on message and seemed calm, whereas Harris fell a little into being stiff and relying on flat, rehearsed rhetoric. However, once she got going, the dynamic has changed – especially every time she’s said something to get under his skin and caused him to go on bizarre tangents. I’m sure his hardcore base loves that shit but he needs more than them to win. I don’t think she’s landing any KO’s quite yet but she’s definitely ahead at this point.

    I needed to take a break because the obsessive gish gallop was wearing me out a little and reminding me of conversation on the main thread of this site at the worst of times.

  6. Kirsdarke:

    And what do these folks think about RFKJ collecting road kill for photo ops, strapping dead whales to his car for god knows what purpose, and staging dead bear cubs in supposed bicycle hit and runs?

    I mean FFS that shit actually happened. Haitians breaking into houses to steal pets for food is fantasy.

  9. Confessions @ #657 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 7:26 pm

    Kirsdarke:

    And what do these folks think about RFKJ collecting road kill for photo ops, strapping dead whales to his car for god knows what purpose, and staging dead bear cubs in supposed bicycle hit and runs?

    I mean FFS that shit actually happened. Haitians breaking into houses to steal pets for food is fantasy.

    I imagine most of them would be thinking “Well he’s white, so that’s no big deal.”

  10. They both started off pretty flat.

    My assessment was that she was a little nervous – the anticipation around this debate had been huge. And Trump appeared to have a cold or some kind of hayfever thing.

  11. Kirsdarke:

    Even as ABC fact checkers called the relevant council to ask about it, only to be told that there were no reports of pets being stolen by immigrants, JD Vance was on CNN insisting it was true and journalists just needed to dig a little deeper.

    I cannot wait for the VP debate!

  12. Thanks for the link Confessions. Two bits leap out, maybe three.
    * Republicans know that T**** did badly.
    * “Why wouldn’t you even look at her?” implies he’s scared.
    * “Now he knows her name.” implies she’s tough, and he can’t ignore her.
    That’s the opposite of what he tries to project. He’s been weakened, slightly.

  14. Sprocket

    I can accept that betting moves were made during the debate.

    I will stand by my posts 100%.

    We will know who is correct, say, a week from today 😉

  15. ”
    Socratessays:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2024 at 3:35 pm
    John Stewart also having fun with the second Presidential debate.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtHn59wqdBc
    ”

    IMO, Trump really thinks his supporters are blind and stupid and rest of Americans have goldfish memory when he blamed Pelosi and DC blamed in breakdown of law and order on Jan 6.
    Also, IMO he is demented seriously.
    He is proving his critics right about their observation that he and his supporters are bat-shit-crazy, he for spewing crazy and nasty stuff and they for believing it.

  16. Harris won the first point because she went straight up to him.. in his territory, thrust forward her hand for a handshake and said, ‘Kamala Harris’ in a clear ringing voice.

    It was their first face-to-face meeting. All Trump’s malignant dicking around with never having met her, never being able to say her name, wondering whether she was black or indian… all those tropes were killed stone dead in a nanosecond.

    It was like a poke in the eye with a burnt stick for Trump.

    He mumbled something incomprehensible and backed towards his lectern.

  17. I recall very clearly that Chinese used to put cats into Chico Rolls back in the sixties and that when the Vietnamese arrived they depopulated whole neighbourhoods of cats.
    Going back a bit further, all sorts of blacks ate Christian missionaries.
    As for what happened to christian babies when the Jews were around, don’t even get me started.

  18. ”
    Socratessays:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2024 at 4:50 pm
    Some articles coming out on “who won the debate” are saying clearly
    Harris won.

    Politico – “Harris won and it wasn’t close”
    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/11/harris-biden-debate-winner-takeaways-00178442

    New York Times – “Trump Rattled by Sharp Harris”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/politics/trump-harris-debate-who-won.html
    ”

    According to black commentators Van Jones and … on CNN debate panel. Trump was whipped.

  19. ”
    evadssays:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2024 at 4:56 pm
    Very surprised that it was 63% to 37%. Wasn’t that close in reality.
    ”

    LOL evads.
    However, if you read PP, scromo and BTsays and centre comments, you would come to the conclusion that Harris barely survived the debate. 🙂

  20. David Axelrod@davidaxelrod
    ·
    6h
    Trump scoffed beforehand about the concept of debate prep.
    So he didn’t.@KamalaHarris did.
    And it showed.
    She was as well-prepared as any candidate I have ever watched.
    Kudos to her and her stellar debate team.

    As Jon Lovett said, Trump’s team focused on pre debate prep with policy sessions with his aides, therefore Trump went to the Montessori Debate School where he prepared for the debate through hands on activities like yelling at the help and golf. 😆
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1usDuIphHw&ab_channel=LovettorLeaveIt

  21. While these debate moderators are better than other recent debate moderators, I’m annoyed that every time Trump wants to interrupt and mouth off about something, they let him. They unmute his mic and let him say what he wants to say. And then one time Harris wants that favour extended to her, they put their feet down and overrule her. Poor form.

  23. Wat Tyler @ #672 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 8:06 pm

    While these debate moderators are better than other recent debate moderators, I’m annoyed that every time Trump wants to interrupt and mouth off about something, they let him. They unmute his mic and let him say what he wants to say. And then one time Harris wants that favour extended to her, they put their feet down and overrule her. Poor form.

    While I agree with that in that it’s poor form, at least in this case, maybe it’s better to let the mad conspiracist uncle rant on about Jewish Space Lasers or whatever so that he makes himself ignominious?

  24. BW

    I remember being on a bus in East Java and stopping at a roadhouse restaurant. They brought what they said was ayam goreng – fried chicken.

    I picked up one piece, and put it back down after I noticed a paw protruding. Could have been a monkey I suppose?

  27. Wat Tyler @ #670 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 8:06 pm

    While these debate moderators are better than other recent debate moderators, I’m annoyed that every time Trump wants to interrupt and mouth off about something, they let him. They unmute his mic and let him say what he wants to say. And then one time Harris wants that favour extended to her, they put their feet down and overrule her. Poor form.

    Nah, the moderators did the job Team Harris were aiming for with the un-muted mics.

    Let Trump Be Trump!

  28. Trump’s media stock down 14% in pre-market

    DJT
    U.S.: Nasdaq
    Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.
    Last Updated: Sep 11, 2024 at 6:21 a.m. EDT
    Delayed quote
    $
    15.99
    -2.64 -14.17%
    Before Hours

  30. The betting market started moving at the moment he interrupted after she said his crowds leave early and really swung when he said people were eating cats and dogs. I was watching. That was the exact moment the punters awarded the debate to Harris.

    Hopefully she can goad him into another debate and then mentally disintegrate him.

  32. I watched the Bolt Report tonight to see what the dark side were saying about the debate. Bolt was talking to Sean Spicer, Trump’s press secretary during his Presidency, and Spicer was clearly not impressed. He mentioned a number of things that he felt Trump should have said but didn’t. Clearly the brains trust are not happy campers tonight.

  36. Confessions @ #679 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 8:25 pm

    Brock Purdy Appreciation Station@TylerRichard
    ·
    8h
    So I was looking for a place to eat in Springfield

    I take it RFK Jr. never watched Stargate, at least that show made having a worm in your brain look somewhat awesome with all the superhuman powers they bestowed, rather than turn out like the pathetic and weird person he turned out to be.

  38. Kirsdarke:

    When you’re a rich person and road kill is a fascination, much less a food source, it’s pretty much guaranteed that you’re a weirdo.

  39. @Confessions

    That’s true. To be honest I wouldn’t be surprised if he stuck an electric eel in his ear, at least that would account for his speech patterns to this day.

  40. Socrates @ #647 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 7:18 pm

    For those who question the value of the Taylor Swift endorsement, so far the tweet has 6 million likes and 1 million resends. That is in four hours.

    Any political party would kill for access to her fanbase.

    That’s why the Trump campaign AIed her endorsement of DonOld. They know real celebrity power when they see it. And Old Don ain’t got it anymore, so he has to try and leach off hers.

  41. This, they’re eating our cats! trope goes back to WA in the 1980s! I remember it being all over Conservative radio that the Vietnamese migrants were stealing people’s cats in Highgate where I lived and using them as a cheap source of meat in the Vietnamese restaurants they worked in! Not true, of course.

    Every old scare is new again in Conservative world.

  44. Kirsdarke @ #639 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 6:58 pm

    From what I gather, Taylor Swift making her endorsement seems to be significant because the Republicans think she should be one of them, as a popular white singer who started her career in Country music. So I imagine they might be a bit upset from her endorsement of Harris/Walz today.

    Sooooo what do they think of Beyonce’s country record? 😀

  46. C@tmomma @ #694 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 9:20 pm

    Kirsdarke @ #639 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 6:58 pm

    From what I gather, Taylor Swift making her endorsement seems to be significant because the Republicans think she should be one of them, as a popular white singer who started her career in Country music. So I imagine they might be a bit upset from her endorsement of Harris/Walz today.

    Sooooo what do they think of Beyonce’s country record? 😀

    I think most of them think Beyonce should be grateful to them as well that they’ve granted so much patronage to a black woman that she in return should support God-Emperor Trump.

  47. Kirsdarke @ #696 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 9:28 pm

    C@tmomma @ #694 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 9:20 pm

    Kirsdarke @ #639 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 6:58 pm

    From what I gather, Taylor Swift making her endorsement seems to be significant because the Republicans think she should be one of them, as a popular white singer who started her career in Country music. So I imagine they might be a bit upset from her endorsement of Harris/Walz today.

    Sooooo what do they think of Beyonce’s country record? 😀

    I think most of them think Beyonce should be grateful to them as well that they’ve granted so much patronage to a black woman that she in return should support God-Emperor Trump.

    I see you have analysed the MAGA mindset well. 🙂

    Seriously though, this is the exact reason they hate Kamala. It really grinds their gears that an immigrant’s daughter, who is Mixed Race Black and Indian-American, has ascended to the 2nd highest office in their country.

  48. Wat Tyler @ #671 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 8:06 pm

    While these debate moderators are better than other recent debate moderators, I’m annoyed that every time Trump wants to interrupt and mouth off about something, they let him. They unmute his mic and let him say what he wants to say. And then one time Harris wants that favour extended to her, they put their feet down and overrule her. Poor form.

    I noticed that too. Maybe it has something to do with that weird reverence Americans have for their Presidents. They, the humble citizen, don’t feel like they have the right to countermand them. Kamala Harris hasn’t been President, only Vice President, so she is treated with less respect. Not that Trump deserves it, of course.

Comments Page 14 of 15
1 … 13 14 15

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *