US presidential election minus nine weeks

Kamala Harris’ win probability dropping in Nate Silver’s model. Also covered: UK polls since the election, still no new PM in France after the election and two German state elections.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.9-45.5 lead over Donald Trump. In my article for The Conversation last Friday, Harris led by 48.8-45.0. The next important US event is the debate between Harris and Trump next Tuesday (Wednesday at 11am AEST).

It is the Electoral College, not the national popular vote, that is decisive in presidential elections. The Electoral College is expected to be biased to Trump relative to the popular vote, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win in Silver’s model to be the Electoral College favourite.

Harris’ probability of winning the Electoral College in Silver’s model has dropped from 47% last Friday to 42%, with Trump now the favourite at a 58% chance to win. Trump’s win probability has increased every day in this model since August 27, and he’s now at his highest win probability since July 30. Current polling in the most important swing state (Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes) only gives Harris a one-point lead, and the model expects further declines for Harris as her convention bounce fades.

UK: no honeymoon for Starmer and Labour after election

At the July 4 UK general election, Labour won a thumping victory with 411 of the 650 House of Commons seats, to 121 Conservatives and 72 Liberal Democrats. This occurred despite Labour winning just 33.7% of the vote, to 23.7% for the Conservatives, 14.3% Reform (but only five seats), 12.2% Lib Dems and 6.7% Greens (four seats).

A new government would normally expect a polling honeymoon, but not this one. There haven’t been many voting intention polls since the election, but a late August BMG poll gave Labour just a 30-26 over the Conservatives with 19% for Reform. A late August More in Common poll gave PM Keir Starmer a net -16 approval rating, while a mid-August Opinium poll had Starmer at -6 after their first poll after the election gave him a +18 net approval. I believe the economic messages from Labour that there’s more pain ahead for the UK are backfiring.

France: still no PM two months after election

The French president (Emmanuel Macron) is the most important French politician, but the system still requires a PM who has the confidence of the lower house of parliament. At snap parliamentary elections that Macron called for June 30 and July 7, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39.

While without a majority before the election, Ensemble was in a far better position with 245 seats. On July 23, the NFP agreed on a PM candidate, Lucie Castets, but Macron has no interest in appointing her. A PM needs to be appointed by October 1, the deadline to submit a draft 2025 budget.

Far-right gains at two German state elections

German state elections occurred in Thuringia and Saxony last Sunday. Proportional representation with a 5% threshold was used. In Thuringia, the far-right AfD won 32 of the 88 seats (up ten since 2019), the conservative CDU 23 (up two), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 15 (new), the Left 12 (down 17) and the centre-left SPD six (down two). The Greens and pro-business FDP fell below the 5% threshold and were wiped out.

In Saxony, the CDU won 42 of the 120 seats (down three), the AfD 41 (up three), the BSW 15 (new), the SPD nine (down one), the Greens six (down six) and the Left six (down eight). In Thuringia, the AfD is well short of the 45 seats needed for a majority, and the most likely outcome is a non-AfD government. A year out from the next federal German election, the polls are grim for the current governing coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP.

717 thoughts on “US presidential election minus nine weeks”

  3. BTSays – I’ve noticed in these threads for world elections how negative you are towards Harris, and how negative you were about Sir Keir Starmer in early June at the time of the UK election.
    Anyway, that’s your perogative, you’re entitled to your views.

    CNN – who won the debate?
    Harris 63%
    Trump 37%

  6. Would Harris’s performance convince anyone not already rusted on?

    Next time she gets a question on the economy, she needs to work in a “the stock market is higher today than it ever has been. 10000 points higher than it ever was under Donald Trump”. Yes I know that has nothing to do with the economy. That isn’t the point.

    She also needs to have a response ready for the “why didn’t you do it already?” line. Should be easy, since as VP she wouldn’t actually have enjoyed any of the relevant powers. “I haven’t been president yet. But make me president and just watch how fast I do it and get things done”.

  8. Ok, all good:

    There have been moves in the betting market, the bookmakers have installed a new favourite. The betting presently reads as follows:

    Harris 52%
    Trump 48%

    NOTE, very important:

    The moves relate purely to the consensus in the mainstream media that Harris won the debate!

    The moves have not been as strongly supported by betting volumes as otherwise would normally be the case…

  10. Harris did well overall, she successfully baited him to the point where he became enraged, not a good look. At the end, his old man ranting at clouds routine was literally laughable, he was essentially babbling to himself.
    She needs to tidy up a coupe of her responses, but overall her team would be happy with that.
    Interestingly sportsbet, which had her already ahead before the debate, has increased her favouritism, post debate.

  11. A little earlier, I placed my third bet on the election.

    My betting reads:

    Kamala @ $2.40
    Kamala @ $2.12
    and now,
    Trump @ $2.00

    Sorry Bludgers, I have bailed out for a very slight gain (CGT free lol) regardless of the result!

  12. Well we had our watch party at work and we were all (but one Trump supporter) happy to see Harris crush Trump. She baited him into Angry Old Man and he happily walked into the traps himself, not knowing what she was doing to him.

    I loved it. It was THE best presidential debate I’ve ever seen. Ever!

  14. Confessions

    How was that better than Biden v Trump? Biden’s performance created mass hysteria lol

    I am certainly not surprised that Harris would want another debate. She will improve with that run under her belt.

  18. Yeah it was Wile E Coyote and the Road Runner stuff.
    She would hand him the ticking time bomb, he would accept it gleefully and it would then explode in his face.
    Apart from the usual RWNJ’s on Fox, overwhelming majority of pundits called it a win for Harris.
    But yeah, the Swift endorsement, could be massive with getting out the younger crowd to vote.

  19. Possibly the most crucial part of the debate was Trump virtually guaranteeing that he would stop the Russia/Ukraine war BEFORE he is sworn in as President.

    Trump says that he knows both Zelenskyy and Putin.

    Putin has just attacked Ukraine with Iranian missiles. I wonder. Election interference?

  20. Harris did to Trump what Biden could not. She sharply attacked him, she was quick thinking most of the time, and she mocked and laughed at him.

    And her facial expressions, mostly brilliant. Like this moment here.

    It’s like when you’re at the family Christmas gathering and your right-wing uncle goes mask-off and starts ranting about wanting to genocide minorities.

  21. Centre @ #620 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 5:44 pm

    Possibly the most crucial part of the debate was Trump virtually guaranteeing that he would stop the Russia/Ukraine war BEFORE he is sworn in as President.

    Trump says that he knows both Zelenskyy and Putin.

    Putin has just attacked Ukraine with Iranian missiles. I wonder. Election interference?

    More like “Hi, Vladimir? As President-Elect I now have access to secret intelligence briefings, so if you launch a cruise missile here on Friday at 10:37am you’ll get Zelenskyy, I guarantee it.”

  22. The Australian Greens were the biggest losers in the debate.

    Harris will not oppose fracking and Trump will continue to drill at even greater records.

    Yep, our efforts to reduce our contribution of 1.3% of total emissions is really going to save the planet – fair dinkum!

  25. Watching the replay now…

    There have been instances of Harris playing rope-a-dope with Trump and Trump swinging furiously, which surprises me as he should have been prepared for that.

    No doubt in my mind Trump’s strategy was ‘shock and awe’ to overwhelm the ‘weak woman’.
    I think he overplayed it.

  26. Fargo61:

    Wednesday, September 11, 2024 at 3:12 pm

    [‘Hi Mavis, I am not sure how relevant that is, but to whatever extent it is, it is maybe also worth noting that the Polish descended populations of the following states are:

    Pennsylvania: 5.85%
    Michigan: 7.81%
    Wisconsin: 8.11%

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/polish-population-by-state'%5D

    Thanks, Fargo. I didn’t fact-check it, relying instead on the MSNBC host. Given Pen has a population of 12.97 million (’22), the figure of 800k does appear overstated.

  28. How was that better than Biden v Trump? Biden’s performance created mass hysteria lol

    The 27 June debate was very tough to watch. Biden’s age and frailty was on full display. This was so much better. The Trump supporter at work left at the 30 minute mark, he wasn’t impressed. 😆

  31. Oh my happy aunt. It just isnt fair to score that debate. It would be like me playing Roger Federer in tennis. Sure, he wins all the points, but I hit the ball out of the court more and harder and furtherer from the balls I keep on the sidelines in my big bag of lies.

    MOFO. 30+ lies to Harris’ 1 false claim. Just on that alone Harris wins by default with Trump sent off.

    This wasnt a debate. You cant debate someone like this. All you can do is be the adult in the room. Sound and look presidential. Have the facts at hand, be across the brief. Deliver coherently, convincingly (to anyone with open ears) and with feeling. IMO, she did very well.

    Trump did what he had to do to keep the cult on board. Which is pretty damned easy considering, well, that his cult are in a cult.

  35. Not just the betting markets changing, but the fundraising…

    ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict
    ·
    4h
    Update 2: Democrats are now raising $2m every 10 minutes on ActBlue. This is nuts.

  38. Mavis @ #626 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 5:57 pm

    Fargo61:

    Wednesday, September 11, 2024 at 3:12 pm

    [‘Hi Mavis, I am not sure how relevant that is, but to whatever extent it is, it is maybe also worth noting that the Polish descended populations of the following states are:

    Pennsylvania: 5.85%
    Michigan: 7.81%
    Wisconsin: 8.11%

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/polish-population-by-state'%5D

    Thanks, Fargo. I didn’t fact-check it, relying instead on the MSNBC host. Given Pen has a population of 12.97 million (’22), the figure of 800k does appear overstated.

    FWIW, 6% of 13 million is 780,000. Even to the three quoted significant figures it’s still 759,000 (rounding from 758,745) in 2022.

    EDIT: There are only 3 significant figures.

  39. From what I gather, Taylor Swift making her endorsement seems to be significant because the Republicans think she should be one of them, as a popular white singer who started her career in Country music. So I imagine they might be a bit upset from her endorsement of Harris/Walz today.

  41. What I believe has happened today is that Kamala Harris’ performance in the debate merely allows her to stay alive in the race. If she had slipped up, her campaign would be all but over. However, Trump can just lie and bluster with impunity without losing any of the 48% of the electorate that is his base. Trump remains favoured to win the real race and win handsomely (possibly even winning the popular vote fair and square).

  42. Confessions @ #635 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 6:38 pm

    Not just the betting markets changing, but the fundraising…

    ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict
    ·
    4h
    Update 2: Democrats are now raising $2m every 10 minutes on ActBlue. This is nuts.

    Thanks. Interesting. Starting from the perspective that Harris needed to convince undecided voters, I have to wonder to what extent the JUMP in fundraising correlates with a cohort of newly won adherents. How many voters does this reflect? Hmm.

  43. ScromoII @ #642 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 7:04 pm

    What I believe has happened today is that Kamala Harris’ performance in the debate merely allows her to stay alive in the race. If she had slipped up, her campaign would be all but over. However, Trump can just lie and bluster with impunity without losing any of the 48% of the electorate that is his base. Trump remains favoured to win the real race and win handsomely (possibly even winning the popular vote fair and square).

    Spoken like a true Trumpist lickspittle.

  44. Confessions

    It was more so with the drama, no one has ever been replaced by a bad debating performance before.

    Like a game of footy, half the players are sent off drama all over the park, you know what I mean 😉

  46. ”
    BTSayssays:
    Wednesday, September 11, 2024 at 3:01 pm
    “Registered voters who watched Tuesday’s debate are closely divided over which candidate better understands the problems facing people like them, according to a CNN poll of debate watchers conducted by SSRS, with 44% saying Harris does and 40% picking Trump.

    That marks a shift in Harris’ favor from prior to the debate, when 43% said Trump had a better understanding of their problems while 39% said Harris did.
    ”

    That is a turnaround of 9%, which is huuuge.

  48. The serious review are coming in…

    By Lisa Lerer and Reid J. Epstein
    Lisa Lerer reported from New York and Reid J. Epstein reported from the debate in Philadelphia.

    Sept. 11, 2024
    Updated 3:59 a.m. ET
    She turned to him with an arched brow. A quiet sigh. A hand on her chin. A laugh. A pitiful glance. A dismissive shake of her head.

    From the opening moments of her first debate against Donald J. Trump, Kamala Harris craftily exploited her opponent’s biggest weakness.

    Not his record. Not his divisive policies. Not his history of inflammatory statements.

    Instead, she took aim at a far more primal part of him: his ego.

    At his rallies, on his sycophantic social media network and surrounded by flatterers at Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump is unquestioned, unchallenged and never ever mocked.

    That changed over the course of 90 minutes in Philadelphia on Tuesday, when the woman who had never before met him succeeded, bit by bit, in puncturing his comfortable cocoon and triggering his annoyance and anger.

    Ms. Harris questioned the size and loyalty of the crowds at his rallies. She said world leaders call him a “disgrace.” And she claimed his fortune was built by his father, recasting a business mogul who proudly boasts of being a self-made man as just another nepotism baby.

    Then she stood by and watched, as Mr. Trump did himself a whole lot of damage.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/politics/trump-harris-debate-analysis.html?smid=threads-nytimes

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