Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The US presidential election is on November 5. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.9-45.5 lead over Donald Trump. In my article for The Conversation last Friday, Harris led by 48.8-45.0. The next important US event is the debate between Harris and Trump next Tuesday (Wednesday at 11am AEST).
It is the Electoral College, not the national popular vote, that is decisive in presidential elections. The Electoral College is expected to be biased to Trump relative to the popular vote, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win in Silver’s model to be the Electoral College favourite.
Harris’ probability of winning the Electoral College in Silver’s model has dropped from 47% last Friday to 42%, with Trump now the favourite at a 58% chance to win. Trump’s win probability has increased every day in this model since August 27, and he’s now at his highest win probability since July 30. Current polling in the most important swing state (Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes) only gives Harris a one-point lead, and the model expects further declines for Harris as her convention bounce fades.
UK: no honeymoon for Starmer and Labour after election
At the July 4 UK general election, Labour won a thumping victory with 411 of the 650 House of Commons seats, to 121 Conservatives and 72 Liberal Democrats. This occurred despite Labour winning just 33.7% of the vote, to 23.7% for the Conservatives, 14.3% Reform (but only five seats), 12.2% Lib Dems and 6.7% Greens (four seats).
A new government would normally expect a polling honeymoon, but not this one. There haven’t been many voting intention polls since the election, but a late August BMG poll gave Labour just a 30-26 over the Conservatives with 19% for Reform. A late August More in Common poll gave PM Keir Starmer a net -16 approval rating, while a mid-August Opinium poll had Starmer at -6 after their first poll after the election gave him a +18 net approval. I believe the economic messages from Labour that there’s more pain ahead for the UK are backfiring.
France: still no PM two months after election
The French president (Emmanuel Macron) is the most important French politician, but the system still requires a PM who has the confidence of the lower house of parliament. At snap parliamentary elections that Macron called for June 30 and July 7, the left-wing NFP alliance won 180 of the 577 seats, Macron’s Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39.
While without a majority before the election, Ensemble was in a far better position with 245 seats. On July 23, the NFP agreed on a PM candidate, Lucie Castets, but Macron has no interest in appointing her. A PM needs to be appointed by October 1, the deadline to submit a draft 2025 budget.
Far-right gains at two German state elections
German state elections occurred in Thuringia and Saxony last Sunday. Proportional representation with a 5% threshold was used. In Thuringia, the far-right AfD won 32 of the 88 seats (up ten since 2019), the conservative CDU 23 (up two), the economically left but socially conservative BSW 15 (new), the Left 12 (down 17) and the centre-left SPD six (down two). The Greens and pro-business FDP fell below the 5% threshold and were wiped out.
In Saxony, the CDU won 42 of the 120 seats (down three), the AfD 41 (up three), the BSW 15 (new), the SPD nine (down one), the Greens six (down six) and the Left six (down eight). In Thuringia, the AfD is well short of the 45 seats needed for a majority, and the most likely outcome is a non-AfD government. A year out from the next federal German election, the polls are grim for the current governing coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP.
It was a nervous watch as a Harris supporter. Harris had small pauses in many of her main pitches that were just long enough for me to panic that she was about to lose the thread of her attack, but in nearly every instance she managed to find her way neatly to prepared phrases that helped her grow in confidence as the debate went on.
Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris
https://www.instagram.com/p/C_wtAOKOW1z/?igsh=MWNuZ2wzY2lyNTBjNw==
The WaPo has a group of swing state voters mostly siding with Harris during the debate.
I’m interested to see who gets out on the hustings sooner and stronger. I didn’t watch but have a strong suspicion that trump will be a little ‘hungover’. Every action has a reaction.
If so, it’s as much an opportunity post debate for Harris as the debate itself.
The moderators did a reasonable job although they did let Trump create his favourite shouting matches a couple of times.
What they DID do was to refuse to let Trump repeat some of his biggest porkies and get away with it.
Just watch the MAGA mob get stuck into the ABC!
Harris team pose with Trump after debate.
With a reputed 800,000 people of Polish extraction in Pen, I think a good chunk of them would’ve shared Harris’s concern that their homeland would be under threat were the US to stop its support of Ukraine. Kudos to those who prepped Harris. As for the debate per se, Harris was the clear winner. She was big on policy whereas Trump was almost silent. She’s a consummate performer born of a career in law.
Sept. 10, 2024, 11:07 p.m. ET19 minutes ago
Michael GoldReporting from Philadelphia
The Trump campaign officials and surrogates in the spin room have been hammering ABC News, arguing that the moderators were biased and did not try to fact-check any of Harris’s statements or press her on issues. Asked about Trump seeming to be on defense, Danielle Alvarez, a campaign spokeswoman, said “Well, I think he absolutely was. And, again, part of it is that it was a three-on-one in the debate.”
The Swifties aligning with Harris is a big blow to the MAGA’s. Registrations should surge.
At the end of the debate – no handshake
Or, everyone will rue this as the day Taylor Swift jumped the shark.
BREAKING: Minutes after the conclusion of Tuesday night’s ABC News Presidential Debate, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris’ campaign said she wants to take part in a second debate with former Pres. Donald Trump.
Follow live updates: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/trump-harris-2024-presidential-debate/?id=113525682
sprocket_ @ #555 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 1:29 pm
Sulky old man is sulky.
ar
Don’t think so, the only sharks are in Frumps head. Anyway her hand was forced.
Sprocket
“BREAKING: Minutes after the conclusion of Tuesday night’s ABC News Presidential Debate, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris’ campaign said she wants to take part in a second debate with former Pres. Donald Trump.”
I’ll bet she does now. Trump would have hated being trolled about crowd size and losing the last election popular vote. He won’t show up again.
IMO Harris proved skilled at baiting Trump and was in return far too sharp to get sucked into debating Trump’s lies. She just called them lies.
I was worried Harris might not go as well in a debate format but my fears were miss-placed. Someone who has actually spent ten years in court room debate as a practicing legal counsel can obviously think on their feet. Harris won’t fear any more debates with Trump.
“Australia is paying the price (bordering on stagflation) for doing more on climate change”
Wouldn’t mind seeing some evidence for this claim
T**** and Harris each had the same objective in this debate, to convince the undecided to vote for them and not their opponent.
Would T****’s performance convince anyone not already rusted on?
IMO, no.
Would Harris’s performance convince anyone not already rusted on?
IMO, maybe.
On that metric, Harris wins the debate.
Sept. 10, 2024, 11:30 p.m. ET9 minutes ago
Jazmine Ulloa
The host Rachel Maddow on MSNBC read Taylor Swift’s Instagram endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris in its entirety to her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz, who was on video link from Mesa, Ariz., where he has been campaigning. Walz put a hand on his chest and smiled wide as he took in the news. “I am incredibly grateful, first of all, to Taylor Swift. I say that also as a cat owner — a fellow cat owner,” he said, calling her message “eloquent” and “clear” and urging Swifties to “get on over” to Harris’s website.
“Or, everyone will rue this as the day Taylor Swift jumped the shark”
She endorsed Biden in 2020 and Harris for VP in 2020. And has added a billion in earnings since.
She also endorsed a Dem senate candidate in Tennessee in 2018
https://www.instagram.com/p/BopoXpYnCes/
289 million on Instagram alone
Taylor Swift – 550.5 million followers on all platforms
By Maeve Reston
National political reporter covering the 2024 presidential race and the politics of the West.
In the spin room tonight, California Gov. Gavin Newsom noted the icy moment at the top of the debate where Kamala Harris strode toward Trump and extended her hand, introducing herself by name. “She had the character and decency to shake his hand, and he was clearly uncomfortable…. She commanded the stage. She commanded this debate. She put him on the defense. She won it walking away. If it was a prize fight, literally they would have called it as a technical knockout in Round 2.”
This cnn summary is actually very good..
https://youtu.be/waqJyvLN1SI?si=x7zdHpjE_L9UwTPF
Wrt this debate, the polls that matter will be those where polling occurred wholly and immediately after the debate ended. Wrt this debate, I don’t expect useful polls to be published until the weekend.
If you missed it, and want to watch it, CNN have published a YouTube video of the debate. CNN claims it to be complete. But I haven’t checked. I’m uninterested in watching it again.
https://youtu.be/T89NYFjEAiM
(1 hour 45 minutes)
I’m still watching the debate, but I can already see why both sides’ fervent supporters would think their candidate won.
My view thus far is Harris’s tactics of partially prosecuting the falsehoods then pivoting to another topic where she has better support, is the wrong one. Essentially a lot of what Trump is saying is being left out there, and pivoting like that gives the impression she can’t win the argument.
Sometimes what makes sense in theory is not the right tactic in practice.
Not quite sure why Trump seems to be allowed to have the last word on so many topics.
Thus I think Trump’s likely to be pleased with how it’s going from what I’ve seen so far. Just on Jan. 6 right now. . .
Harris’s calmness, intonation and articulation is excellent. But I thought she’d be more original in content about Trump etc.
Trump searches in vain for a sparring partner before entering the debate ring:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqijA6A9s9g
I would be quite annoyed with the moderating, or lack of, if I was the Harris campaign.
Though perhaps also annoyed with Harris for not jumping in to retort like Trump does, before they force the subject onto the next topic.
The more Trump can talk, the more he’s where he wants to be.
– SMH
The CNN commentator got it.
Harris whupped Trump.
She sucker punched him.
Her body language was superior.
Her policies were clear. He denied his. Knew nothing about 2025, apparently.
Her articulation was well-modulated. She talked to and with people.
Trump wanked on about himself with his usual malignant narcissism.
She offered truth, hope, decency, respect and inclusion.
Trump offered people eating cats and dogs. Move aside Hannibal, you have competition.
Says it all.
Did he feed red meat to his nasties? Absolutely. He was on song there.
Did he offer anything at all to Indies and Undecideds or even to rational Repugs? Not at all.
I predict a 1-2% bounce in the national polls and in the swing states to Harris.
Trump won’t take kindly to losing this debate after his triumph against Biden.
LOL good line.
Why didn’t they cut off mics? Trump gets in every time he insists and they just back down and wait for it.
“Registered voters who watched Tuesday’s debate are closely divided over which candidate better understands the problems facing people like them, according to a CNN poll of debate watchers conducted by SSRS, with 44% saying Harris does and 40% picking Trump.
That marks a shift in Harris’ favor from prior to the debate, when 43% said Trump had a better understanding of their problems while 39% said Harris did.
But voters who tuned in give Trump a 20-point advantage over Harris after the debate on handling the economy, 55% to 35% – a margin that’s slightly wider than before they took the stage in Philadelphia.
The poll’s results reflect opinions of the debate only among those voters who tuned in and aren’t representative of the views of the full voting public. Debate watchers in the poll were 6 points likelier to be Republican-aligned than Democratic-aligned, making for an audience that’s about 4 percentage points more GOP-leaning than all registered voters nationally.
An 82% majority of registered voters who watched Tuesday’s debate say it didn’t affect their choice for president. Another 14% said it made them reconsider but didn’t change their minds, with 4% saying it changed their minds about whom to vote for. Debate watchers who supported Trump prior to Tuesday night were modestly more likely than those who supported Harris to say the debate had left them reconsidering.”
Just remember, “it’s
the economy, stupid!”
Kimmel post-debate:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9bqtlWphXA&t=313s
Harris did quite well talking about the future and on unity and came over as a nicer person (a low bar, I know).
But she was quite a heavy failure on defending her/ the current administration’s current tenure (mostly, not always – she was good on the healthcare element for instance), where her strategy was to change the subject.
That might make sense when engaging with the media only and you’re doing most of the talking, but not when you’ve got an opponent leaving all sorts of assertions out there not challenged / justified.
It was, of course, her bad luck that Trump won the option to do the closing statement last.
And not her fault that the moderators gave way to Trump so much.
All in all, this was probably a draw – but a draw suits Trump much better, especially whilst he is ahead on the economy.
Mavissays: Wednesday, September 11, 2024 at 1:26 pm:
“With a reputed 800,000 people of Polish extraction in Pen, I think a good chunk of them would’ve shared Harris’s concern that their homeland would be under threat were the US to stop its support of Ukraine…”
Hi Mavis, I am not sure how relevant that is, but to whatever extent it is, it is maybe also worth noting that the Polish descended populations of the following states are:
Pennsylvania: 5.85%
Michigan: 7.81%
Wisconsin: 8.11%
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/polish-population-by-state
‘Fargo61 says:
Wednesday, September 11, 2024 at 3:12 pm
Mavissays: Wednesday, September 11, 2024 at 1:26 pm:
“With a reputed 800,000 people of Polish extraction in Pen, I think a good chunk of them would’ve shared Harris’s concern that their homeland would be under threat were the US to stop its support of Ukraine…”
Hi Mavis, I am not sure how relevant that is, but to whatever extent it is, it is maybe also worth noting that the Polish descended populations of the following states are:
Pennsylvania: 5.85%
Michigan: 7.81%
Wisconsin: 8.11%
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/polish-population-by-state‘
——————————–
I reckon that will have a definite impact in those swing states.
Nice move by the Harris campaign team to immediately challenge Trump to another debate.
The bully got whupped. Will he turn up for another serve?
Harris used several successful tactics. This is just two of them.
* Her opening few comments included “We’re going to hear a lot of lies
.”, which set her up to be able to later say “Just as I predicted, that’s more lies.” (WTTE)
* When asked about her record she would start, “Let’s remember how we got here”, or “You have to understand how we got here”, and then list T****’s past actions, before getting to her answer.
Swift endorses Harris/Walz.
Another campaign disaster for Trump.
LR
Yep.
Boerwar @ #588 Wednesday, September 11th, 2024 – 3:25 pm
It tells us who they think did better. “But of course they know that.” (Quotes because that’s a favourite T**** tactic.)
John Stewart also having fun with the second Presidential debate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtHn59wqdBc
Trump will be petrified of debating a strong woman twice.
Harris started well pushing back on Afghanistan (“remember how we got here. . . etc.”) but forgot the punchline re it being Trump’s ‘deal’ with the Taliban that they were being forced to execute in July 2021, to some people negotiating with the Taliban could be seen as a ‘needs must’ thing whereas she should have shown it led directly to a terrible outcome for Afghanistan and for the military withdrawal.
She just lacked the passion and the killer touch at key moments like that, which I think were vital, although she spoke very well on other topics.
I don’t think this will help her in the polls, although being in Pennsylvania some of her reassurances / targets to Pennsylvanians specifically may have landed and got her another crucial % or so in this state – not to be sneezed at if so.
Probably helped herself more in the Northern marginals than the Southern ones with this debate, if at all.
Trump came out with some fairly outrageous stuff, but actually didn’t ramble all that much and remained quite calm for him. Got his own way a lot of course, which probably kept his pecker up.
Anyway, after this welcome distraction I’m tuning out of PB again. . . will be fascinating to see if there’s any significant movement in the polls either way (I doubt it, not that you can decisively attribute to the debate anyway, but may be quite wrong).
How will Trump’s malignant narcissism cope with being trashed by a woman?
Sounds like Harris had a good one. I’ll check out the VOD of the debate later.
Trump virtually confirmed that he will hand Ukraine to Putin.
Trump virtually confirmed that he would refuse to do anything about a national abortion ban.
Trump virtually confirmed that he would seek to set up a dictatorship.
Trump virtually confirmed that he would seek to jail his political enemies including campaign workers and donors.
Trump virtually confirmed that he would seek to undo anything and everything on the climate fight front.
Trump virtually confirmed that he would seek to destroy Affordable Care.
“where is our president? We don’t even know if he’s a president. They threw him out of a campaign like a dog. We don’t even know, is he our president? But we have a president that doesn’t know he’s alive.”
Would Harris’s performance convince anyone not already rusted on?
IMO, maybe.
It’s reduced the Blood Pressure in a lot of people !.