Two new federal polls have emerged in the past few days, both showing Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on two-party preferred. RedBridge Group’s results are an improvement for Labor on their last poll in mid-July, which had the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5. The primary votes are Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (down three) and Greens 12% (up one). The accompanying release has results to an array of further questions, including a finding that 32% support visas for Palestinians fleeing Gaza, with 44% opposed; and 72% support for a total ban on online gambling advertising, with 16% opposed; and a mixed bag of favourable and neutral results on AUKUS. The poll was conducted August 20 to 27 from a sample of 2017.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down one on the primary vote to 30.5%, the Coalition down two to 37.5%, the Greens steady at 13% and One Nation up two to 6%. The 50.5-49.5 two-party result compares with a 51-49 Coalition lead last week. The two-party result based on 2022 election preference flows has the Labor lead at 51-49, after a 50-50 result last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.
So the Australia Institute’s 6 ideas are just 6 different government subsidies.
Noting that the RBA will completely ignore such artificially reduced prices for inflation calculations, and meanwhile the government risks just driving the prices up to compensate for people’s newly increased ability to pay due to the subsidy. You know, the First Home Buyer’s Grant problem.
Come on Australia Institute, you’ve got to be able to do better than that.
Where is Lars, anyway? Was it a permanent ban? Self-imposed exile?
@Arky:
“ @P1:
“It is perhaps time to admit that we have lost the war against climate change, and start thinking again.”
When I said something like that a few months ago you accused me of supporting the deaths of millions of people.
That New Yorker article is basically exactly my argument.
You can apologise now.”
________
Don’t hold your breath mate. When I said the same thing after the 2019 Federal Election, P1 labelled me a denier. …
Yeh look all I am seeing is yet another argument for massively reforming the RBA, considering increased rates only work if you actually reduce spending, but we also know these rate increases have increased the spending power of groups that are likely the greatest source of ongoing spending…
So wouldnt a targeted taxation of, say, profits induced from investments and accounts directly benefiting from these rate hikes, with these funds then being used for targeted services with price controls to ensure the extra cost doesnt get passed on be the single worst idea ever?
Because it isnt just the Australian Institute making these claims, and honestly it just looks like “increased taxation is political poison” is the real reason…
Just finished watching Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz, Chair of the National Housing Affordability and Supply Council, address to the National Press Club. It was a pearler. She hammered home repeatedly that the only solution to the current housing crisis is increased supply, and took no prisoners over naive questions from the journos about letting folk use their super to drive up prices.
It’s not yet on iView, but should turn up there shortly. Worth watching.
Arky @ #100 Wednesday, September 4th, 2024 – 1:29 pm
I don’t believe I would have ever said any such thing. Possibly you are confusing me with someone else.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #103 Wednesday, September 4th, 2024 – 1:37 pm
That’s a different argument. You were in favor of opening up new coal mines. Are you still? Because that’s denial, pure and simple.
Oh wow, Luigi you are right, this is pretty much no holds barred even 5 minutes in, and pretty clear on their view regarding tax incentivisation and Phil Lowe…
If you dont want to wait, just scroll back the youtube livestream on ABC live
A_E agree that the current dilemma is related to the RBA delaying rate rises, when the rest of the world was doing so. To stop inflation you have to take the pain at some stage but they hoped for a soft landing.
I guess it could still happen but PJK’s “the recession we had to have” wasn’t as silly as it sounded.
“ That’s a different argument. You were in favor of opening up new coal mines. Are you still? Because that’s denial, pure and simple.”
____
You, as usual, had a comprehension problem. I was not in favour of new mines, I was just pointing out that the political debate in Australia had been lost (at least regarding Carmichael).
I believe that you are incorrect – the last set of inflation figures from the RBA were reduced because retail energy prices were reduced by both Federal and State subsidies.
“Annual CPI rise down in July after the federal government’s energy subsidy cut electricity bills by 5%”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/aug/28/australia-inflation-rate-falls-today-cpi-interest-rates-rba
This means inflation will rise when the subsidies stop.
Lordbain
How are we doing price controls, again?
You don’t think inflation is a problem?
The RBA has the responsibility to bring down inflation – that’s why it’s an independent decision maker – to stop political interference from crackpots like you.
OC, I would suspect a similar system to what we have here in the territory relating to our rent control systems;
lets assume entity A (childcare) is charging X per hour. Now, through the funding generated by said targeted taxation (its own conversation obviously), the government offers eligible families a subsidy of .9X per hour (thereby, a total reduction of funds in the market via taxation and reduced spending on a service)
Now, childcare providers undergo approval to by the government already to be eligible for operation; as part of this would be a fee check, ie, your charging X. Seeking to increase fees above an acceptable rate (TBD) would see at the very least a please explain from the relevant government body, and more acceptably (to me), would bring a reconsideration as to the continued accreditation of the childcare provider.
Now, the obvious issue with this is the classic argument of “de-incentivising” child care facilities via “red tape”, however I would then argue that if you have entities prepared to scalp users, they are
a) likely to be the same sort of market actor that plays hard and loose, and
b) theres always a demand for childcare services, and you will see people step into the market even if the profit margin is reduced.
Again, this is all the mindless ramblings of someone sick in bed, but just some thoughts
The ALP has done nothing about productivity except drive it backwards by approving directly and indirectly massive wage rises with zero productivity gains. The ALP is attacking some our most important industries with their new bargaining laws. What exactly are they doing.
We remain in GDP per capita recession – Australia is getting poorer – but the immigration boosters are telling us that immigration is helping growth in the economy – it’s a veil of economic illiteracy. This is when per capita numbers actually are relevant.
Commentators on this site where very aggressively critical of the competence of the LNP and made great claims about the competence of the ALP and this Government – yet we now have one of the worst performing economies in the G20.
FUBAR says:
Wednesday, September 4, 2024 at 2:19 pm
The ALP has done nothing about productivity except drive it backwards by approving directly and indirectly massive wage rises with zero productivity gains. The ALP is attacking some our most important industries with their new bargaining laws. What exactly are they doing.
We remain in GDP per capita recession – Australia is getting poorer – but the immigration boosters are telling us that immigration is helping growth in the economy – it’s a veil of economic illiteracy. This is when per capita numbers actually are relevant.
Commentators on this site where very aggressively critical of the competence of the LNP and made great claims about the competence of the ALP and this Government – yet we now have one of the worst performing economies in the G20.
_____________
Good post IMHO.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #110 Wednesday, September 4th, 2024 – 2:04 pm
Ok, I just checked. You were in favor of Adani but not other new mines. So, apologies – one new “mine” only, not “mines”.
A trillion dollar debt and a decade of lost productivity growth will get you every time.
“ You don’t think inflation is a problem?”
What I actually think is that you are as dumb as a hammer. No rational person could interpret my comments as amounting to an opinion that inflation isnt a problem.
I simply have a different POV as to the causes of inflation in the current circumstances, and the way to combat it, than the Uber-chemotherapy approach of the monetarists on the Reserve bank – who, as I have pointed out, are actually culpable in not applying their own cultish ideology back between Feb-May 2022 to reverse the ‘emergency settings’ to pre-Covid levels (which would have had a dent into the cashed up boomer mini property market bubble that existed at the time).
Liberal v Liberal
Getting to the nitty gritty now.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/article/2024/sep/04/linda-reynolds-v-brittany-higgins-defamation-trial-case-final-arguments-ntwnfb
What a load of lefty rubbish. If anyone previously didn’t believe that the “climate change” industry wasn’t a socioeconomic political strategy of the left before now – this is another piece of clear evidence that that is exactly what it is. More of other peoples’ money for their own pet causes.
FUBAR @ #113 Wednesday, September 4th, 2024 – 2:10 pm
In the bigger picture, not so much.
It is not, for example, nearly as big a problem as climate breakdown. Which is, by the way, now one of the major causes of inflation.
And if the only way to do that – as currently seems to be the case – is to crash the economy?
Then what?
The cost of all goods and services is influenced by two factors, supply and demand.
Except housing, which only has a supply side, apparently.
So there’s no point in trying to solve the housing crisis by, for example, reducing immigration or cutting tax breaks for investors, because they only influence demand. That would only work if housing behaved like every other consumer good in the Universe.
But it doesn’t. The Chair of the National Housing Affordability and Supply Council says so.
Once again P1 – I was not in favour of Adani. I simply realised at the time that we were in the ‘count the dead, bayonet the wounded phase’ when it came to Adani.
That being said, I think I also suggested that the mine be renamed the Bob Brown coal mine, and the railway the De Natali railway, or some such … to remind folk that it was the ‘Queenslander!!!’ Backlash against the southern interloper’s EV convoy that sealed the deal …
AE, I would suggest they rename the mines to those that actually approved them… and those that continue to approve them.
Of course, thats also ignoring that 2022 saw a reduction in the QLD 1st pref vote of Labor from 2019; I would argue Qlds role in killing Labor in 2019 is overstated
Ante Meridiansays:
Wednesday, September 4, 2024 at 2:27 pm
The cost of all goods and services is influenced by two factors, supply and demand.
Except housing, which only has a supply side, apparently.
So there’s no point in trying to solve the housing crisis by, for example, reducing immigration or cutting tax breaks for investors, because they only influence demand. That would only work if housing behaved like every other consumer good in the Universe.
But it doesn’t. The Chair of the National Housing Affordability and Supply Council says so.
————————
Surprised if Susan thinks demand doesn’t matter to housing when it does.
Just another example of the complete lack of support for Higgins from the Coalition. Apparently.
Who funds the National Housing Affordability and Supply Council?
Just guessing, it’s a leftist Front organisation?
Adani/Carmichael – remember the good old days when the rail line was never going to be built, the mine was never going to be built, the mine was never going to be commercial, Adani wasn’t really committed to it.
FUBAR says:
Wednesday, September 4, 2024 at 2:35 pm
Adani/Carmichael – remember the good old days when the rail line was never going to be built, the mine was never going to be built, the mine was never going to be commercial, Adani wasn’t really committed to it.
_____________
That’s right. Labor supporters were saying it was ‘all smoke and mirrors’ and a legal trap by Adani. There would never be any coal mined.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #124 Wednesday, September 4th, 2024 – 2:28 pm
Don’t be absurd. Labor (Qld) and the COAlition (Federal) signed and sealed the deal, not Bob Brown.
You were of the opinion that the mine should proceed because falling demand for coal meant it was doomed anyway. How has that worked out so far?
Dave,
Yes I do remember that, which is probably why the Queensland Labor government signed a deal with Adani to defer royalties indefinitely. Otherwise the mine might not have been built.
I am sure the RBA will not look at the Headline Inflationary figure when deciding what to do about interest rates. They are more interested in the underlying rate.
So the government subsidies will not effect the RBA decision.
“The RBA – and many other central banks – monitors and forecasts underlying inflation measures (Graph C.1).[3] This allows the Reserve Bank Board to look through volatility in prices and the effect of one-off or temporary measures that do not influence the underlying degree of price pressures in the economy. Considering forecasts of underlying inflation allows the Board to set monetary policy to return inflation sustainably to target.”
Remember, in 2019 Labor lost 2 seats in QLD, and this somehow meant they lost, and it was all the Greens fault.
In 2022, when Labor won the Federal election, Labor… lost another seat in QLD (bringing it down to 5).
Labor lost 2019 because they lost seats in SA, WA, Tasmania, kept neutral in the NT, and only made inroads in NSW, Victoria and the ACT.
So if Labor had held steady and not lost those 2 seats… it gets to 70 out of 76 needed.
That means they would have needed to win another 6, which was certainly not going to happen in QLD since their 1st pref vote had decreased from the Rudd high of 42.91 (15 seats), to 2010 with 33.58 (total of 8 seats), to 2013 with 29.77 (6 seats), to 2016 with a rise of +1.14 (got up to 8 seats), a decrease in 2019 to 26.68 (and a loss of 2 seats back to 6), and, with no Green convoy, in 2022, a 1st pref vote of… 27.42, which actually saw Labor lose another seat, down to 5.
Hell, you can argue the Greens certainly cost Labor qld a seat in 2022 because they took Griffith, but lets stop pretending that Labor was going to win 2019, and the mean old Greens cost them the crown.
In the bigger picture inflation is a scourge – read some history. That’s why it is so important that it is kept under control by an independent body not subject to the whims of politicians.
As for Climate Change being one of the major causes of inflation – pull the other one. FFS.
The Government needs to sail to the prevailing winds and be honest with the voters.
It doesn’t need to crash the economy – productivity growth is a non-inflationary way of driving economic growth.
Badthinker, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council is a federal government agency. One can usually discover stuff like that by googling it.
FUBAR @ #135 Wednesday, September 4th, 2024 – 2:54 pm
I guess I’ll just keep posting this until you can be bothered to read it …
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-is-exacerbating-inflation-worldwide/
An interesting tweet that provides more grist to the mill for the “RBA stuffed up” argument.
“Shane Wright@swrighteconomy
Big miss by RBA on its own forecasts on household consumption. It had predicted 1.1% annual growth – it’s actually 0.5%. For half the economy, that’s a big miss.”
https://x.com/swrighteconomy/status/1831151645998338409
Goodenough stirring.
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/liberals-headaches-continue-as-perth-mp-joins-in-on-albanese-photo-op-20240903-p5k7mg.html
I would be staggered if he won as an independent but who doesn’t like a bit of a sideshow?
The WA libs will miss his fundraising I’d surmise.
FUBAR
As for Climate Change being one of the major causes of inflation – pull the other one. FFS.
——————–
Its added to insurance premiums and that’s added to inflation because the insurance companies try setting their premiums against their risk but they have had less claims.
P1/FUBAR
“As for Climate Change being one of the major causes of inflation – pull the other one. FFS.
I guess I’ll just keep posting this until you can be bothered to read it …”
——————————————————-
There are many causes of the recent inflationary surge world wide, from the Ukraine War to shipping blockages. But climate change is definitely one of them. Extreme weather events have impacted food prices due to scarcity and crop shortfalls in multiple countries.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/02/climate-change-food-prices-drought/
And the costs of counteracting climate change also contribute to costs. New transmission lines are required for dispersed renewables; EVs cost more than ICE cars; and God knows how much seven nuclear power station clusters might cost the nation.
Socrates @ #141 Wednesday, September 4th, 2024 – 3:12 pm
Soybeans? Meh!
Olive Oil? I can live without it.
Rice? Ok, this one is a bit of a worry.
But Chocolate? This is a goddam global catastrophe!
Albotross has no idea when the election date will be. None.
Does he really think we are idiots?
Anyone who believes everything that comes out of Netanyahu’s mouth is certainly in the running.
Of course it wasn’t Labors fault they lost in 2019. It’s NEVER Labors fault, just ask A_E and Boerwar.
P1, there was a time in the ACT earlier this year when a head of lettuce went for 10 dollars, and potatoes were often sold out.
As to chocolate… I keep an unhealthily large stock because these shortage events are the new norm, and it isnt changing (at least in my lifetime)
@Luigi Smith: In part due to Trump’s follies, the current Government of Iran is easily “pissed-off”, as you describe it. In fact, one might describe their temperament being that of an arc-up looking for an insult to justify itself. Given how hostile our relations normally are with Tehran, I doubt that them being especially peeved at us is going to lead to much.
P1
Chocolate AND coffee. Its the end of civilisation.
Weather is not climate. Extreme weather events have bene occurring since the earth developed an atmosphere and will continue to happen until it is swallowed by the Sun. Claiming that manmade climate change is “causing” extreme weather events is unscientific garbage.
Let’s talk droughts – in particular California, one of the food bowls of the US base don irrigation water. The geological record shows that California has been subjected to droughts that make recent droughts in California pale into insignificance – droughts that lasted hundreds of years. In WA, the evidence is that while annual rainfall is falling in the SW, the geological record indicates we are coming off the back of the previous century of historically unusually high rainfall and the long term reality for WA is much drier than it has been. There weren’t coal mines back then.
As for insurance companies – they price risk on anything that they can possibly apply a risk to. They aren’t in the game because they like paying out claims. They are there to make a profit. So, if someone says “here’s a new risk”, they’ll price it and sell the insurance to any sucker who wants to pay the premiums. Insurance premiums across the board – life, TPD, income protection, health, contract, works, workers comp, transit, kidnapping, travel, etc have all been going up – it’s not because it is getting hotter.