Two new federal polls have emerged in the past few days, both showing Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on two-party preferred. RedBridge Group’s results are an improvement for Labor on their last poll in mid-July, which had the Coalition leading 51.5-48.5. The primary votes are Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (down three) and Greens 12% (up one). The accompanying release has results to an array of further questions, including a finding that 32% support visas for Palestinians fleeing Gaza, with 44% opposed; and 72% support for a total ban on online gambling advertising, with 16% opposed; and a mixed bag of favourable and neutral results on AUKUS. The poll was conducted August 20 to 27 from a sample of 2017.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down one on the primary vote to 30.5%, the Coalition down two to 37.5%, the Greens steady at 13% and One Nation up two to 6%. The 50.5-49.5 two-party result compares with a 51-49 Coalition lead last week. The two-party result based on 2022 election preference flows has the Labor lead at 51-49, after a 50-50 result last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.
Thank you BK
Tim Clarke’s summary of yesterday proceedings Reynolds v Higgins
https://thewest.com.au/news/court-justice/linda-reynolds-vs-brittany-higgins-defamation-lawyer-accuses-arrogant-ex-staffer-of-trivialising-hurt-c-15926535
MB is right, of course.
It is not just the Canberra Chattering Classes who believe that the wording on a Census question is of vital national importance and that consideration of anything and everything else should be set aside while that issue is discussed 24/7 for a fortnight.
All Australia is talking about nothing else, except for maybe the fitness test of half a dozen Carlton players.
When Ben Roberts-Smith had his defamation action, it was pretty easy to see the locomotive heading down the tracks toward him. With Linda Reynolds, there just hasn’t been the same amount of reporting of substantial issues. Are there any substantial issues? Is there a detailed chronology of what happened when? Is everybody’s recollection created in retrospect?
But I’ll guess that Ms Reynolds gets a very lukewarm judgement in her favour and a big legal bill to pay herself. That’s a dollar each way bet.
And the list of unreliable witnesses will be expanded in this episode of the scandal that just keeps on giving.
The Guardian reports that “The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) won a major case in the federal court against AGL in August after alleging the energy giant used the government-run payment system to wrongly take welfare money from almost 500 customers for years after they ceased being customers.
A Guardian Australia investigation into the Centrepay system has revealed two other major energy retailers, Origin and the Queensland-based Ergon Energy, have also allegedly used the system to deduct welfare payments of former customers.”
If true, that would make three big gas companies systematically using Centrelink to boost their bottom line at the expense of welfare recipients.
Probably not as significant as our ambassador in Tehran pissing the Iranian government off.
Captured.
“Independent urges government to work with crossbench to pass environment watchdog legislation
Independent MP Andrew Wilkie has called on the government to work with the crossbench to pass its new environment watchdog powers, following reports it may be weakened to pass parliament. Lisa Cox has all the details below:
In a video posted to X, Wilkie said:
It is bitterly disappointing to hear that the prime minister is ready to cave in to Coalition demands to water down the new Environment Protection Agency.
Look, the Coalition is the mob who abolished the carbon price, who waged endless climate wars and who took no steps to repair our broken environmental laws in their nine years of office.
So what’s going on? Why doesn’t the Labor party just ignore the opposition and work with the crossbench? Because after all, we’re the members of the parliament that want these reforms to really work, and work well.”
I look forward to Labor saying what the Greens wanted that was a bridge too fair; ill put money its on the Climate Change trigger, which goes to show how much Labor doesnt give a fig.
And here we have the cross bench, who would likely give Labor a more “equal” (for big business) deal then the Greens, and apparently its still not as good as the LNP deal.
Massive drop in noalition primary result of people finally breathing in the heady fumes of cancer inducing radioactive waste creation units the glow-in-the-dark nuclear potato man and side-kick fallout girl susssan want to inflict all over the place on the good burghers of Australia 😡
Don’t tell me Littlefinger is at it again leaking and undermining, trying to drive down Labor’s polling …?
UK Cartoons and other miscellany
Morten Morland #DavidLammy
Martin Rowson
Patrick Blower
Banx
Guy Venables
Matt
Waters
Mark Parisi
Wayno
Garthtoons
Trevor Spauling #NewYorkerCartoons
Jimmy Craig #NewYorkerCartoons
A link to the Facebook page of our embassy in Tehran showing the ambassador sharing purple cupcakes for the bunfight du jour: https://www.facebook.com/AustraliaInIran/
Rex Douglassays:
Wednesday, September 4, 2024 at 10:34 am
Captured.
On Sunday night, Albanese was the star guest of Mineral Resources chief Chris Ellison at his Osborne Park HQ for a luxury dinner. He rolled in with WA Premier Roger Cook, federal Resources Minister Madeleine King, and Mr Five Jobs Mark McGowan. On the other side of the table were Woodside CEO Meg O’Neill and Rich Lister Nigel Satterley
——————
Could be why Albo rolled on the census question.
The Blue On Blue Linda Reynolds fiasco has even more Blue participants – perhaps this crew could take on another Blue fiasco in the NSW Liberal Party?
A lot to unpack here…
On Tuesday night, Credlin confirmed she helped Higgins draft the statement but did so with the “full support” of then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison and her manager at Sky News Australia.
“Not long after the Higgins story broke, within a couple of days, certainly in the first week, contacts of Higgins reached out to me as a former Liberal Chief of Staff and a woman,” she exclusively revealed.
“I was asked if I would take a call from Brittany Higgins, which I did and in it, she asked me if I would help her draft the terms of reference for a review into the treatment of female staff in federal politics.
“I said I would, I said after 16 years as a staffer myself, I believed reform was needed and I then did two things – with her permission, I called the then prime minister Scott Morrison’s office to tell them, this was exactly what I was doing to which his Chief of Staff said ‘I fully support it’, and then I advised my direct manger here at Sky News.”
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/i-was-asked-if-i-would-take-a-call-from-her-peta-credlin-responds-to-revelation-she-helped-draft-statement-for-brittany-higgins/news-story/5fe376a0acdfdbc63605d1eb636d0fb8
“Probably not as significant as our ambassador in Tehran pissing the Iranian government off.”
Australia’s culture and mores piss off Iran by existing. They can take offence at us whenever it suits them to do so. We shouldn’t care.
The Patrick Blower cartoon about the history of England nicely elides all the messy bits of English history to contrast the current mess only with positive moments.
Magna Carta exists because there was an uprising before it. Ending the slave trade exists because there was a slave trade before it which spread that evil all over the New World. The Glorious Revolution was glorious for Protestants, not so much for Catholics! He could have had Cromwell or Brexit or Neville Chamberlain or Thatcher etc in it but of course none of that suits the rhetorical aims of the cartoon.
Important to be aware of this stuff and not buy into confected narratives.
Peta Credlin is a bit of a dope, if that wasn’t already obvious.
Good news.
Future Fund’s annual return jumps to record $225bn
Australia’s sovereign wealth fund has added $18.8bn to its portfolio over the year to June, taking it to a record $225bn, underpinned by strong share markets and investments.The Aus today.
Bad news wait 10 minutes.
Labor looking to adopt Green policies already.
Labor MPs want Medicare dental on agenda next term
Anthony Albanese is facing an internal push to put dental onto Medicare, with MPs from the Left and Right factions to raise the matter after the next election.Aus today.
“Government won’t give Medicare coverage for dental ‘in the near term’: Butler
The government will not be able to give Medicare coverage for dental “in the near term”, the health minister Mark Butler says.
Appearing on ABC Radio Melbourne, Butler poured cold water on reports Labor backbenchers are pushing him to give Medicare cover for dental works for adults:
I’m focused right now on strengthening the fundamentals of Medicare, which are really under real strain after a decade of cuts and neglect, particularly the freezing of the Medicare rebate. I’ve said very clearly and unapologetically to the medical community and to Australians that my focus is on general practice.
…Oral care is very fundamental but it has not been a feature of either Medibank under Whitlam or Medicare under Hawke, and for the 40 years since. That has been a bugbear of many people who would like to see oral health covered by Medicare as well. But that’s not something we’re going to be able to do in the near term.”
Oh thank god, Labor was dangerously close to having a health policy for a second…
GDP numbers better than expected. Apparently 1%.
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, September 4, 2024 at 8:44 am
Liberal v Liberal.
It looks like either Reynolds or Higgins/Sharaz and offspring will be rough sleepers when the Defo is over.
====================================================
While the two News Corp divas that manipulated it all from their ivory towers. Janet and Peta, will have to decide who will win the apple of discord and be crowned the meanest girl of them all. I think Piers Morgan should get to judge the winner of this.
“Daily Mirror on the wall, who is the meanest News Corp girl of all?”
“Australia’s economy grew an annual pace of 1.0% in the June quarter
Peter Hannam
Australia’s gross domestic product expanded a better than expected 1% in the June quarter from a year earlier, the ABS has just said. That pace compared with the 0.9% rate forecast by economists.
On a quarterly basis, growth came in at 0.2%, versus the 0.2% economists had predicted.
After removing the effect of a swelling population, GDP shrank on a per capita basis for a record sixth quarter in a row.”
So basically the only thing keeping us in the green is population growth…
Arky @ #65 Wednesday, September 4th, 2024 – 11:10 am
History is written by the recent ‘winners’, from time to time, with a view to pleasing the powers that be, at that time. Much ‘history’ is therefore bunk. Most Australian published so-called history is just whitewashed tripe. Manning Clark included.
Lordbainsays:
Wednesday, September 4, 2024 at 11:36 am
“Australia’s economy grew an annual pace of 1.0% in the June quarter
Peter Hannam
Australia’s gross domestic product expanded a better than expected 1% in the June quarter from a year earlier, the ABS has just said. That pace compared with the 0.9% rate forecast by economists.
On a quarterly basis, growth came in at 0.2%, versus the 0.2% economists had predicted.
After removing the effect of a swelling population, GDP shrank on a per capita basis for a record sixth quarter in a row.”
So basically the only thing keeping us in the green is population growth…
=======================================================
So what exactly is the Greens policy on continued GDP growth per capita for perpetuity?. Personally i believe world GDP growth needs to stabilise at zero growth at sometime. The same also applies to population growth. As continued growth of either in the long run is not sustainable for the planet.
Lordbain @ #70 Wednesday, September 4th, 2024 – 11:36 am
We are in a recession. We all know that. But the government don’t like admitting it. Which means they won’t adjust their policy settings to fix it. Because that would itself be a tacit admission.
So, down we all go … all to prop up a frightened, weak, directionless, pointless and useless government … 🙁
Player Onesays:
Wednesday, September 4, 2024 at 11:50 am
Lordbain @ #70 Wednesday, September 4th, 2024 – 11:36 am
After removing the effect of a swelling population, GDP shrank on a per capita basis for a record sixth quarter in a row.”
So basically the only thing keeping us in the green is population growth…
We are in a recession. We all know that. But the government don’t like admitting it. Which means they won’t adjust their policy settings to fix it.
========================================================
Please do tell what these policy settings you believe need adjusting in response to the current GDP data are exactly?
Otherwise it would appear you criticism is just for criticism sake and lacking any actual basis to it.
Good question Entropy, and this is a moment that will likely blow some minds… I dont know, and I am at odds on the Greens on this.
I agree there should be an increase of the humanitarian intake, however I would rather a greater focus on the regional network approach.
I agree that immigration criteria should be fair and equitable, and I also think there needs to be a rethink of the entire “necessary skills” mantra (which I think we can all agree is a bit of a joke atm).
However, I do think there needs to be a strong discussion as to the quality of life we want for our citizens versus how this is maintained, and that simply relying on immigration to hide weak economic news is not acceptable.
On a side note, I also disagreed with the Greens on the rationale against nuclear, but thats another discussion.
As to the overarching question… I dont know. I know theres been some work by greater minds then me as to establishing a stable economy, one not focused on growth for growths sake, and the repercussions of this, but I dont have an answer other then that our current system is not going to be the solution.
As a side note, GDP as a guidance of well being is obviously lacking, it was never designed to be this criteria, but that conversations been had to death.
Entropysays:
Wednesday, September 4, 2024 at 11:34 am
“Daily Mirror on the wall, who is the meanest News Corp girl of all?”
_____________________
Don’t give up your day job.
No wonder Victoria is down the toilet int education students send more in transfers overseas then spend here.Below is BS.
Victoria holds 30 per cent of the national market share of international student enrolments. As our largest export, international students generated $14.8 billion in export revenue in 2023, supporting around 63,000 local jobs.
The Labor Government’s priority is to maintain the state’s global reputation as an open and welcoming destination, while supporting international students to join the state’s pool of highly skilled talent.
It’s why the Commonwealth Government must reconsider its cap on international students, which risks damaging Australia’s international education standing and economy.
Oh Dear federal labor !!
“Excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period, annual financial year economic growth was the lowest since 1991-92 — the year that included the gradual recovery from the 1991 recession.” the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.
Chalmers was correct: the GDP figures are lousy – +0.2% growth for the quarter, +1% for the year.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-04/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates/104303652
Our population grew +650,000 (+2.5%) so yes, most people’s real wages are going backwards.
Seeings it is only now people are magically talking about population growth…
Policy proposal – cut migration
– those businesses “screaming” for workers may have to actually offer competitive pay instead.
– puts downward pressure on housing market and rent
– lessens need for expensive infrastructure
– good for the environment
Per person GDP is already well negative, so if the headline dips for a quarter or two it doesn’t represent an appreciable difference for most Australians. But let’s make the economic system prioritise driving up wages for workers than meeting the expectations of lazy businesses.
Well look on the bright side Albo, nobody is talking about the Census any more.
Is the government as frightening as green washing eco-tourism?
Socratessays:
Wednesday, September 4, 2024 at 12:09 pm
Chalmers was correct: the GDP figures are lousy – +0.2% growth for the quarter, +1% for the year.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-04/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates/104303652
Our population grew +650,000 (+2.5%) so yes, most people’s real wages are going backwards.
=====================================================
Since when was GDP growth a measure of wage growth?
Real wage growth is determined by wage growth minus inflation rate, not GDP growth.
Note: Wage growth was 0.8% in the June Qtr and 4.1% for year to that period. Which is a little above the inflation rate for the same period though.
“Since when was GDP growth a measure of wage growth?
Real wage growth is determined by wage growth minus inflation rate, not GDP growth.”
+1
In a country that operated on unbridled capitalism and merciless profit-seeking, GDP growth could be stratospheric while wage growth could be zero or negative. Woe to the sods who aren’t Gina Rinehart and have to actually work to feed themselves!
Entropy
You are correct I should have said real average incomes, not wages.
However in practice an economy with more people arriving than new money will see falling real wages. It will show up in fewer jobs, more unemployment and more underemployment. This then leads to downward pressure on wages and wage rises not keeping pace with inflation, which is what we have been seeing.
I am not against immigration – some of the immigration is causing the economic growth that has occurred. But we are effectively in a per capita recession, and that is a problem. I see no point pretending otherwise.
“Oh, I think the usuals will make sure it lasts and lasts and lasts. They are doing quite well with it, are they not?’
BW be fair to say that you have single-handedly done more to promote the issue on this blog than anyone else.
Another issue I have is that I distinctly remember when the technical recessions started before Covid, that this exact same farce from both the big 2 was on the air, just with the roles reversed.
Hell, heres an article from 2020, and I want to see if people can see spot whats weird about it.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cutting-immigration-would-hurt-the-economy-and-communities-morrison-20200505-p54q1w.html
Cutting immigration would hurt the economy and communities: Morrison
Dont worry, ill help;
The position of the LNP: we need more immigration to help the economy (note this is around the time the economy had dipped into recession before Covid so while Covid is now a factor, immigration rates being kept high for the economy wasnt initiated just because of Covid)
The position of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry: immigration totally doesnt put downward force on wages
The position of the Australian Workers Union: this rates of immigration negatively impact wage growth
The position of Labor: Immigration numbers need to be cut to defend Australian jobs for Australian citizens
So the LNP is claiming that higher immigration numbers are needed to support the economy, this is supported by the ACCI, while unions and Labor raise concerns about increased immigration meaning more competition for a limited supply (in this case employment and wages).
So if we swap the roles of the LNP and Labor, and shift “jobs for aussies” to “housing for aussies”… we get the current mantra.
If the economy has only been “saved” from recession by immigration for a total of now 18 months (or put another way, australia has been in a per capita recession for basically 1.5 years), when can we all just admit that the economy as it is just isnt working?
Entropy @ #74 Wednesday, September 4th, 2024 – 11:58 am
How do you normally fix a recession? Spend. Invest. Tell the Reserve Bank to stop being so goddam stupid. Override their stupid decisions if you have to.
But mainly … just do something rather than nothing.
Immigration is great but it lets lazy governments off from having to get the out of work into employment.
Player One @ #87 Wednesday, September 4th, 2024 – 12:52 pm
All of which are inflationary – Lars prediction of stagflation, much criticised here, is not far from the mark
OC, there is that forbidden way of combating inflation… the one that, if I were to dare write down, would likely cause heart attacks for some readers… contractionary fiscal policy
Or there other proposals (yes I know to some of you the Australia Institute is basically Karl Marx 2.0 but maaaaaybe give it a read)
https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/six-ways-the-government-can-reduce-inflation-in-next-weeks-budget/
‘Royal Doulton says:
Wednesday, September 4, 2024 at 12:36 pm
“Oh, I think the usuals will make sure it lasts and lasts and lasts. They are doing quite well with it, are they not?’
BW be fair to say that you have single-handedly done more to promote the issue on this blog than anyone else.’
————-
That is because I think it is far, far more important than than the state of the economy, that the state of the environment, rampaging climate change, the Anthropocene Extinction event, genocide in the ME, demographic collapse and rampaging dictators.
OC
A month or so ago the obstructionists combined to stymie one of the elements of Reserve Bank reform… the one where the Government of the Day could NOT interfere in the decisions of the Reserve Bank.
A couple of days ago Chalmers made it clear that he had differences of opinion with the Reserve Bank the very same perp promptly, roundly and thoroughly criticized Chalmers for interfering with the Reserve Bank.
The public policy debate is not worth shite, ATM. The overriding interest is in fomenting moral panic.
Share market not happy. I would have thought that the prospect of effectively socializing the rental market and slapping 40% company tax on any investment in Australia stupid enough to be successful instead of failing miserably would have combined to lift the market.
But, no.
Contractionary fiscal policy would make our hidden recession much more obvious.
(But I did wonder why the S3 tax cuts were not delayed in an inflationary environment)
And .. so what should we be investing in? The fight against fossil fuels? Well, yes … and no …
It is perhaps time to admit that we have lost the war against climate change, and start thinking again.
Yes, we should continue to invest in renewables – but for the purpose of delaying the inevitable for as long as possible while we try and figure out how to cope with the changes. But that’s not the only investment we need. It’s time to also invest in resilience. Big time. Australia is not currently very resilient at all. Not in any sense. We used to be better, but we pissed it all away by our greedy and short-sighted insistence on investing only in mining and property. We have simplified our economy to the brink of ruin. It will take decades to recover from that error. And it will require a government with guts and vision.
This is a good – albeit somewhat depressing – article, that is just as relevant to Australia as it is to America …
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/what-if-we-stopped-pretending
OC, I leave this to better people then me, but it seems a combination of targeted tax hikes, which are then used to subsidise health, education and child care services, could be a solution?
And yes I know the RBA only has a big hammer, and ergo all problems look like a nail, but then the entire thing seems to need a reform.
I look forward to be told how I am wrong, hopefully with wit, and not with insults by some
“ Lars prediction of stagflation, much criticised here, is not far from the mark”
I know you have an unusual degree of bromance going on with L’arse, but mate, you have truly jumped the shark.
1. The government isnt going to do what P1 suggests, at least not to the degree that her post implies.
2. L’arse’s handwringing about wages (obsessed with the new government’s decision to back the ACTU’s log of claims in the 2022 minimum wage case) and spending has not seen any upwards movements towards ‘stagflation’. At best there has been a very marginal – and dubious- case that minimum wage increases and government spending at existing levels may … may … have slowed the rate that Morrison’s legacy inflation has declined over the past two years.
IMO – and it is pretty obvious in my view – the Reserve Bank has been caught out not moving the cash rate fast enough back to pre-covid levels between February and May 2022 and thereafter has engaged in a series of ineffectual and unnecessary ratcheting of rates over the following 18 months, thus leaving the cash rate about 0.75-1.0% higher than it should otherwise be. Its negligence in the first half of 2022 had political considerations writ large.
@pied piper:
” int education students send more in transfers overseas then spend here”
Usual piper made-up bullshit.
International students bring in shitloads for the economy.
They pay huge fees to our universities. They pay for local housing, local food and local entertainment. Some of them get part-time jobs here but that just helps pay their local cost of living so the payment gets plowed back in to the local economy anyway. Meanwhile most of them are wholly or partially funded by rich mum and dad overseas. That’s money coming in.
International students aren’t making bank to transfer overseas, mate. If they settle in Australia and get a working visa and work here after studying that’s a different kettle of fish.
I wonder who you’ve been talking to.
I mean, I suppose prostitutes might be saying they’re here to study while making money they can transfer back home?
Lordbainsays:
Wednesday, September 4, 2024 at 1:18 pm
OC, I leave this to better people then me, but it seems a combination of targeted tax hikes, which are then used to subsidise health, education and child care services, could be a solution?
And yes I know the RBA only has a big hammer, and ergo all problems look like a nail, but then the entire thing seems to need a reform.
I look forward to be told how I am wrong, hopefully with wit, and not with insults by some
————————-
If inflation had not come down and the budget was in deficit then tax hikes would be an option but the budget is in surplus and inflation and growth is slowing so upping taxes would worsen the economy.
@P1:
“It is perhaps time to admit that we have lost the war against climate change, and start thinking again.”
When I said something like that a few months ago you accused me of supporting the deaths of millions of people.
That New Yorker article is basically exactly my argument.
You can apologise now.