Newspoll: 50-50 (open thread)

Both leaders down on net approval in the latest Newspoll, the Coalition only slightly favoured over Labor on inflation, and little change on voting intention.

The Australian reports that Newspoll has a tied result on two-party preferred, unchanged on three weeks ago. The primary votes are Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 38% (down one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 41% and up three on disapproval to 54%, his equal worst net result as Prime Minister, while Peter Dutton is down one to 39% and up two to 52%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-39 to 45-37. The poll also finds “only a quarter” connsider inflation would be lower under the Coalition, with 18% believing it would be higher and 41% opting for neither. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1263.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

798 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50 (open thread)”

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  1. You gotta smile: LNP/Green Cheer Squad in relation to WA…..
    “Labor ignores/hates WA”…..
    Federal Government cabinet comes to WA and sits in Perth
    LNP/Green cheer squad:
    “Aw, look how much all that costs! Just a waste of taxpayer money and just done for show. And the carbon footprint!”
    What a mob whingers……..

  2. Gawd. Brisbane’s multi-million dollar Star Casino has only been open for a week but has been suspended by the ASX for failing to lodge its financial statement. It’s also seeking deferral of payroll & gambling taxes. As it employs some 1,400, the Miles Government will most likely come to its aid in some form or other.

  3. We love our SUV. 7 seater so fits the kids and their friends or the family plus grandparents. The back is regularly filled with musical instruments that wouldn’t fit in a normal car boot, sports gear, luggage for the whole family, dogs, etc. most Ikea items can be fitted into the back or on the roof saving having to use a trailer. Bike’s on the roof and the back, surfboards, sailboards, standup boards, Opi sailing dinghy. Two small cars wouldn’t replace what we do with it. Had four bakers racks of buns plus everything else for a 300 pax bbq breakfast last week for Fathers Day breakfast.

  4. Asha

    The issue is , why did Labor work with the anti-union L/NP rather than the pro-union Greens ..?

    More to the point, why didn’t Labor call the CFMEU management out on their BS years ago..? …and don’t tell me they didn’t know what was going on ..!

  5. And while on the strength/otherwise of the Oz economy versus say Ireland, the question to ask is if the Irish economy (meaning the Republic) is doing so well, why are so many intelligent, well qualified and keen young people leaving that so-called economic powerhouse for places like Oz, Canada and the UK?

  6. Oliver Suttonsays:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 7:11 pm
    Badthinker: “BTW, whatever happened to McGowan?”
    Scotty was destroyed by the Higgins ‘Scandal”, according to Phil Coorey on Insiders a few months ago.
    Meanwhile, all the Lockdown Premiers have been moved on.

  7. I have voted Labor in every election since I was first qualified in 1980, but no longer. I will vote Greens federally, but continue to vote Labor in Victoria. Labor stand for nothing federally and are an embarrassment. I am sick to death of being asked to vote Labor to stop whatever it is that the Tories are doing, rather being asked to cast a positive vote for a real Labor program.

  8. Asha says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 7:02 pm
    “Just a crazy thought, but maybe the Palestinians are claiming refugee status due to the tiny strip of land they are presently crammed into being bombed into oblivion?”

    Just coming from a war zone is not a reason for being granted permanent refugee status.

  9. Or do former Premiers now have a responsibility to stay visible in the public eye to quixotically try and clear the ever shifting goalposts of extreme right posters like yourself?
    extreme right?
    Surely you meant “extemely right”?
    BTW, what about Jim Chalmers throwing the switch to Populism by attacking the Reserve Bank?
    Extreme Right?

  10. Mavis says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 6:34 pm

    Brett Walker is an excellent barrister, but I don’t see on what legal grounds the CFMEU is lodging a case with the High Court. I thought we were beyond “the vibe of the matter” type claims. No?

  11. Badthinker: “Meanwhile, all the Lockdown Premiers have been moved on.”

    Well, the ‘Woman Who Saved Australia’ (just don’t mention the Ruby Princess) certainly moved on.

    Under the shadow of findings of corrupt conduct.

  12. ‘Asha says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 7:02 pm

    Just a crazy thought, but maybe the Palestinians are claiming refugee status due to the tiny strip of land they are presently crammed into being bombed into oblivion?’
    ——————–
    How many would you like, exactly. There are enough to easily double the Australian population, bearing in mind that the housing crisis in Australia may cost the current Government its majority.

    There are around 2.1 million in the Gaza strip.There area around 100,000 Lebanese who can’t go home in southern Lebanon. There around 7 million Syrian refugees. There are around 8 million Afghan refugees. There are around 1.2 million Iraq refugees. There are around 2.2 million South Sudan refugees. There are around a million Somali refugees. There are around 6 million Congo refugees. There are around 7 million Palestinian refugees (noting a bit of double counting in the Gaza Strip.
    There are around 100,000 Israelis who cannot go home in Northern Israel.

  13. Couldn’t organise a root in a brothel v 2:
    The NSW Liberals will be forced into a federal takeover for 10 months from September 12, with all powers to be delegated to a committee of former Victorian senator Richard Alston, ex-Victorian treasurer Alan Stockdale and former NSW minister Rob Stokes.

    But in an embarrassing development for the party on Tuesday night, Stokes said he was not asked about the appointment and was unable to accept because of other commitments. “I am always happy to help but I did not anticipate this appointment and I am not in a position to accept it,” Stokes said.

  14. If a real socialist, such as Dan Andrews nominated as a federal candidate, that would be enough for me to re consider. But I refuse to vote for the right wing shower of shit on offer now, As for Albanese…what a fraud.

  15. Andrews was moved on before voters got a chance to vote on his Covid performance.
    Jacinda Allan gets to take the fall.
    Don’t give up, Laborinos, a couple months out from the next Vic Election, some ‘Liberal’ will come out of the woods calliing for urgent action restricting Abortion, then there’ll be a panic about who should use which dunnies … someone had a lobster dinner with a swarthy gent sonewhere, all the old favorites.

  16. Tricot says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 7:15 pm
    And while on the strength/otherwise of the Oz economy versus say Ireland, the question to ask is if the Irish economy (meaning the Republic) is doing so well, why are so many intelligent, well qualified and keen young people leaving that so-called economic powerhouse for places like Oz, Canada and the UK?

    How many reasons would you like?

    1. The weather is shit. Being a Tradie in Ireland versus being a Tradie in Australia – I know where I’d rather be.

    2. They are pissed off with the EU immigration policy that is flooding their nation with third world immigrants and fundamentally changing Irish culture. Note the recent loss of their Referendum- the culture is at odds with the Lefties of the EU.

    3. Housing prices are mental and the anti-development laws are mental.

    4. There is a fairly strong tradition of Irish young people leaving.

    5. Did I mention the weather?

    6. When white boys are the most poorly performing cohort in the education system – why would you want to bring up a family under that sort of regime?

    7. You can get Guinness most places nowadays.

  17. Regarding the increase in the Australian road toll, which will be accompanied by a rise in morbidity”

    Soc@4.24pm says:
    Best practice countries in road safety have serious crash rates per km driven half that of Australia now. We have fallen a long way behind best practice. We need action in vehicle safety rules, driver training, heavy vehicle driver regulation, fatigue regulation enforcement, speed management in urban areas, and road design in urban and rural areas.

    I am coming late to this discussion, but being a pedestrian and a cyclist (and OH a motor bike rider), I have concerns that in NSW, pedestrians, cyclists and motor bike riders now comprise over one third of the road toll, and this share has been rising each year for at least a decade and a half.

    A quick google shows that: ” Australia’s road toll continues to climb, with more than 100 people killed in road accidents in just one month.

    New road toll figures, released by the federal transport department on Thursday, showed Australia recorded its highest August road toll since 2018, with fatalities rising by more than eight per cent.
    …………….
    New South Wales and South Australia recorded the highest increases, with both up by more than 20 per cent.

    Cyclists and pedestrians recorded even larger increases.

    The rising toll came despite national targets to halve road deaths by 2030.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/09/21/cyclists-pedestrian-deaths-rise-australian-roads

    Also, the National Road Safety Strategy Factsheet: vulnerable road users (pedestrians, cyclists, motor cyclists etc.) shows that this category made up 33% of the national road toll in 2020.

    I think that if Australia put a lot of effort into providing these vulnerable road users with safe cycleways, pedestrian thoroughfares, and more enforcement of safe driving around pedestrians, bikes and motorcycles, then a lot of lives could be saved.

    I also worry about enforcement, or the lack of same for car drivers. In NSW the NRMA is particularly active as a motorists’ lobby group, especially (if the Letter’s to the Editor in the Open Road are anything to go by) for the RAM driving caravaning set.

    In 2011, Alan Jones and friends (The Daily Telegraph) led a successful campaign against permanent speed cameras near schools, calling them “speed traps”. We have lost most of our speed cameras that policed the 40 km/hr speed limit near schools.

    As someone pointed out recently, in Battlelines, Tony Abbott said the quiet part out loud: being able to drive your big car as fast as you want, wherever you want, is a culture war issue.

    I am concerned that the RAM driving slice of the electorate, who seem to me more likely to live in outer urban swing seats, are likely to vote against any attempt to improve road safety for us vulnerable road users normal people who like to walk or cycle to the local shops, or school.

    Any insights you have are welcome. I feel like an old tending to middle-aged woman yelling at the clouds, watching people dice with death each day purely became they choose to be a pedestrian, and basically, school kids do not choose – they have to do this, in inner city Sydney.

    p.s. There was a great series of lectures given at U Syd some 10 years ago, by a recently arrived US person, working at ANU, previously of Boston Massachusetts, aimed at graduate students. It was the most sweary lecture series I have ever attended, but it was also a brilliant introduction to the subject. The undergrad students loved it! But, in the introduction said lecturer commented on this, their first time in Sydney “I asked my friend (another American ANU person) if I should bring my bike to Sydney. She said No, not unless you want to die!” (or WTTE). So, I think Sydney has a particularly bad problem with non-car transport.

  18. Fubar wrote, “Brett Walker is an excellent barrister, but I don’t see on what legal grounds the CFMEU is lodging a case with the High Court. I thought we were beyond “the vibe of the matter” type claims. No?”

    How about denial of natural justice? Put into administration when none of the allegations had been proven

  19. Badthinker: “… a couple months out from the next Vic Election, some ‘Liberal’ will come out of the woods calliing for urgent action restricting Abortion.”

    Ah, that’d be Moira Deeming …

  20. Over the years, Elon Musk has captivated millions with his audacious dreams of martian colonies, subterranean superhighways, and an electric car revolution. But in the past two years, the techno-messiah has veered off course, plunging headlong into a swamp of far-right ideology.

    The latest installation in this evolution came on Monday when Brazil’s supreme court ordered Musk’s social media company, X, be taken offline.

    Despite having ample warning of what would occur should the company refuse to comply with local laws, X refused to commit to tamping down on anti-democratic content and the spread of misinformation. For his part, Musk called the supreme court judge who issued the take-down “a dictator and a fraud”. Overnight, the company, already hemorrhaging users, advertisers and staff, lost an estimated 22 million users.

    Musk’s transformation has left many wondering how the poster boy for futurism ended up sounding like that conspiracy-theory-spouting uncle you only put up with at Christmas. Surely, we think, there must be a grand plan. A reason for it all, a logical explanation.

    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/the-far-right-is-the-only-place-left-for-elon-musk-s-x-rated-ego-20240902-p5k78n.html

  21. Don’t worry about McGowan – he’s well and truly on the Directorship gravy train. Sold the house in bogan Rockingham as soon as his ALP credibility wasn’t on the line and moved to the leafy Western Suburbs to rub shoulders with his billionaire mates who put on Penfolds Curated wine Tastings including museum vintages of Grange. I recall a Premier who lost their job over a bottle of Grange.

  22. Moira Deeming is okay with Abortion, which is odd, since she replaced Bernie Finn, who cruelled Matthew Guy’s chances by making Abortion an issue only a couple of months out from the Election.
    Finn got the arse, Deeming replaced him on the ticket, Finn approved of her, then she went nuts about dunnies.
    It’s a funny old world for us people who believe in coincidences.

  23. Richard Alston is in his early 80s, Allan Stockdale will be 80 next year.

    Just the kind of young blokes needed to rev up the NSW Libs.

    Staggered they couldn’t find a berth for young John Howard (85).

    Greg Hunt apparently said the other day he didn’t think the Liberal Party was representative of modern Australia.

    There’s your proof.

  24. clem attlee says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 7:34 pm

    Where’s that in the Constitution?

    I am genuinely keen to understand the legal basis of the case.

    The High Court may choose not to hear the case if they do not consider it has jurisdiction.

  25. Douglas and Milko says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 7:33 pm

    I’ve been hit by cars three times while riding a bike. All them were small cars driven by people who didn’t look before doing something.

  26. Fubar scribbled,”I recall a Premier who lost their job over a bottle of Grange.”
    That wasnt because he had a taste for Grange, that was becuae he was corrupt.

  27. I suspect the Labor party will be disappointed and embarrassed when the High Court (again) finds their actions to be unlawful… the true purpose for the separations of power.

    Because heres the thing… do you want a government that can determine guilt and innocence at a whim?

  28. clem attlee @ 7.18 pm

    We are a democracy and voting is compulsory. I don’t think the Labor Party is going to lose any sleep regarding how you or those with the same values as yourself are going to vote.

    The last time Labor put forward left-wing policies at an election, Shorten lost the unlosable election. The people listened to Chris Bowen and voted Morrison.

    If Labor moves remotely close to Green, they will easily hand the prime ministership over to Dutton.

  29. Badthinker says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 7:16 pm

    Scotty was destroyed by the Higgins ‘Scandal”, according to Phil Coorey on Insiders a few months ago.
    Meanwhile, all the Lockdown Premiers have been moved on.

    ————
    That’s like a Trump saying Trump didn’t do anything wrong. Ie there’s no credibility in anything he says.

    As have all the non-lock down premier, no plural there. It’s almost like there’s this thing called an electoral cycle.

  30. Boerwar:

    Good lord, I’m not saying we just let Palestinian refugees in willy-nilly with no regard to our refugee or migration caps. Of course we should continue to take into account how many people our country can realistically support when deciding on cases like this, and tragically that does mean many will miss out. (But hopefully there are other nations that will also pick up the slack.)

    All I’m saying is the idea that somebody living somewhere as profoundly dangerous and unliveable as the Palestianian territories are right now – a situation that is entirely the fault of Hamas and the IDF, not the ordinary people suffering through relentless bombings and starvation – surely has a legitimate claim to seek refugee status.

  31. Fubar scribbled again,”where’s that in the Constitution?” It isn’t, it’s common law, you cannot be sanctioned until you have had your day in court.

  32. Ok, looks like some of you needed to be reminded.

    In 2019, Shorten lost… with 1st pref of 33.34%
    In 2022, Albo won… with 32.58%

    Less people voted for Albos small target policies then Shortens so called far left agenda.

    Seriously, anyone who says “the voters spoke in 2019” is quite rightly an idiot that should be ignored, especially since it will have been 2 elections. Things change, unlike some of the old farts here.

  33. Badthinker says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 7:50 pm
    “Are any sacked CFMEU paid officials still Trustees of the various Super Funds?”

    How are they qualified to be Trustees?

  34. ‘Asha says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 7:55 pm

    Boerwar:

    Good lord, I’m not saying we just let Palestinian refugees in willy-nilly with no regard to our refugee or migration caps. Of course we should continue to take into account how many people our country can realistically support when deciding on cases like this, and tragically that does mean many will miss out. (But hopefully there are other nations that will also pick up the slack.)

    All I’m saying is the idea that somebody living somewhere as profoundly dangerous and unliveable as the Palestianian territories are right now – a situation that is entirely the fault of Hamas and the IDF, not the ordinary people suffering through relentless bombings and starvation – surely has a legitimate claim to seek refugee status.’
    ——————–
    All of the tens of millions I listed above, = including the ones you are talking about, have a ‘legitimate claim to seek’ refugee status,. Anyone at all can seek refugee status. Anyone at all. Similarly, any receiving country has a duty of care to make sure that the ones claiming status are not supporters of genocidal entities.

  35. Rex Douglassays:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 7:21 pm
    Daniel Andrews wasn’t moved on.
    He retired undefeated 100 not out.
    ________________
    Has he handed over those phone records yet ?

  36. Bob Hawke shoulda got the arse in 1984, but didn’t.
    Albo is still in the Catbird Seat.
    Things on the boil include Candace Owens, who is due to Tour, but hasn’t applied for a visa yet.
    Odd, to my way of thinking, perhaps it’s par for the course to sell tickets, book venues, then apply for Visa?
    Liberals will be worried if Burke okays her brief, since, as well as being
    “Alt-Right” , she also reckons, among other things, Michelle Obama and Brigitte Macron are dudes, the Moon Landing never happened, and, [according to Andrew Bolt] Lenin and Stalin were Jews.

  37. Badthinkersays:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 6:35 pm
    Will Judge make a call on the fortuitous hapenstance of the Higgins Sex Scandal
    allegations dropping in a Sitting Week while the Morrison Government was basking in justified praise for the [First & Second] World’s best handsling of the Covid hysteria?
    If he does, i’m predicting a 25.5% Morgan shall shortly follow.
    =======================================================
    .
    The Project Interview was on the February 15th 2021. What has this got to do with Morrison’s Covid handling at all? Certainly it was before his Covid vaccine mishandling had become apparent. Though it has nothing at all to do with that failure.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/brittany-higgins-breaks-down-on-the-project-speaking-about-alleged-rape-at-parliament-house/news-story/3c54d90a75f5255ed8f531ee7f200626

  38. Oh, and on the topic of a Fair Trial, how about you read the AGs own page on the topic;

    Where do fair trial and fair hearing rights come from?
    Australia is a party to seven core international human rights treaties. Fair trial and fair hearing rights are contained in article 14 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR).

    See also article 40 of the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC) and article 13 of the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD).

    What are fair trial and fair hearing rights?
    The right to a fair and public criminal trial or a fair and public hearing in civil proceedings is one of the guarantees in relation to legal proceedings.

    Fair trial and fair hearing rights include:

    that all persons are equal before courts and tribunals
    the right to a fair and public hearing before a competent, independent and impartial court or tribunal established by law.
    The other guarantees are the presumption of innocence, and minimum guarantees in criminal proceedings, such as the right to counsel and not to be compelled to self-incriminate. For more information on the other guarantees in article 14 of the ICCPR, see the Guidance Sheets on the Presumption of innocence and Minimum guarantees in criminal proceedings.

    Now I don’t know about you guys, but the governments actions regarding the CFMEU look pretty damn in contravention of their own guidelines.

    Again, this is going to blow up in Labors face like the detention laws did earlier…

  39. Center wrote, “the last time Labor put forward left-wing policies at an election, Shorten lost the unlosable election. The people listened to Chris Bowen and voted Morrison. ” The fact that you consider that to be ‘left wing’ shows just what a neo liberal stooge you are. If we are going to support a neo liberal government, what difference does it make if it’s Tory or ‘Labor.’? BTW, Centre is spelt with the r before the e.

  40. Luigi Smith wrote, “I understand that the basis of the CFMEU’s High Court application is that its leadership has been denied due process of law.”

    What I said.

  41. Taylormadesays:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 8:02 pm
    Rex Douglassays:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 7:21 pm
    Daniel Andrews wasn’t moved on.
    He retired undefeated 100 not out.
    ________________
    Has he handed over those phone records yet ?
    =================================================

    Does he have 12 year old phone records to hand over? There is no law that states you or your phone company must hold those records for that time. If someone asked for my phone records from 12 years ago. They would get nothing too. I would point them to which local council landfill tip that phone is likely to reside at though and wish them luck in their search.

  42. FUBAR:

    Legal precepts don’t have to be in the Constitution. They are part of the system we inherited from the Old Dart – the Westminster system. Implied in this system is the common law right that a person (or in the instant case, an entity) has the right to have allegations made against them tested by a tribunal of fact, and are entitled by way of discovery to know the identity their accusers and the evidence thereof. By taking unilateral action against the CFMEU, the Government, in concert with the Opposition, has prime facie denied the union due process, aka procedural fairness, aka natural justice. And I’m not sure if Walker would have accepted the brief were he not reasonably confident of success.

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