Newspoll: 50-50 (open thread)

Both leaders down on net approval in the latest Newspoll, the Coalition only slightly favoured over Labor on inflation, and little change on voting intention.

The Australian reports that Newspoll has a tied result on two-party preferred, unchanged on three weeks ago. The primary votes are Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 38% (down one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up one). Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 41% and up three on disapproval to 54%, his equal worst net result as Prime Minister, while Peter Dutton is down one to 39% and up two to 52%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-39 to 45-37. The poll also finds “only a quarter” connsider inflation would be lower under the Coalition, with 18% believing it would be higher and 41% opting for neither. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1263.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

798 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50 (open thread)”

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  1. HH:

    NSW Libs couldn’t organise a root in a brothel.

    The federal party seems pretty skilled at organising them outside of brothels.

    I guess that’s why they’ve taken over?

  2. @Holden:
    “NSW Libs couldn’t organise a root in a brothel.”

    They sound like the Vic Libs.

    Still, the NSW Libs won a bunch of elections in a row. The Vic Libs have won (barely) one term in office this millennium, achieved so little that their own supporters branded them a do-nothing government, and left again.

    But at least they never forgot to lodge the candidate nomination forms. Yet. Give them time.

  3. Arky:

    But at least they never forgot to lodge the candidate nomination forms. Yet. Give them time.

    I’m sure it will somehow end up being Dan Andrews’ fault.

  4. @Rewi – Ben Raue’s workup on it had it very similar to Tangney on the numbers; that was the closest comparison. But we’ll have to see!

  5. FUBAR says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 4:42 pm

    Why would Palestinians who were previously living in Gaza under Hamas rule now need Permanent Protection visas?

    Why would Hamas want to kill them now?
    ———-

    Perhaps because the Israelis are trying bomb them back to the stone age?

  6. Rossmcg

    “It’s because I like to travel remote areas of Australia where Toyota Corollas are not really suitable.”

    I’m completely fine with people who actually use those vehicles for that purpose.

    But most are not. When I drive in to work in town here in Adelaide I go past the main entrance to a large private school called St Peters Boys College (SPC). The queue to turn into the schools seems to be 90% Toyota Landcruisers or similar, most with gleaming metallic paint that will never go near the bush. That is a waste.

    And that still doesn’t change the point, that those things are less safe for the rest of us. If you want to drive them in the city, you should at least pay the real cost in terms of insurance.

    We don’t let people smoke in public around others because it harms them. Why should we let people drive around in a vehicle that doubles or triples their risk of death in a collision?

  7. Boerwar

    “Liberal v Liberal

    First Albrechtson and now Credlin…

    One thing that has been exposed, yet again, is the incestuously close relationship between the Coalition and the MSM.”
    ———————————

    ROTFL 😀

    Do you recall the conservative posters here before this trial trying to dream up reasons why it would be harmful to Labor, and that Albo should go to an early election to avoid embarassemsnet 🙂

  8. This has gotta sting. Victorians having more say in the NSW party. 😆

    The NSW Liberals will be forced into a federal takeover for 10 months from September 12, with all powers to be delegated to a committee made up of former Victorian senator Richard Alston, ex-Victorian treasurer Alan Stockdale and former NSW minister Rob Stokes.

    The party’s president Don Harwin will also lose his position in the intervention.

    The decision followed a federal executive meeting on Tuesday afternoon, which met to consider a report from former federal party director Brian Loughnane into the NSW Liberals’ spectacular failure to nominate 140 candidates in 16 councils ahead of this month’s local government elections.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-liberals-forced-into-10-month-federal-takeover-after-council-fiasco-20240903-p5k7l3.html

  9. Arky: “The Vic Libs have won (barely) one term in office this millennium”

    The Queensland LNP (jointly or severally) has won (decisively) one term in office this generation.

  10. Well, I must say I have no idea what the defo judgement is going to be. It did seem to me that a huge swathe of the witnesses for Reynolds seem to have missed the point entirely and that there are at the very least points for and against Reynolds as manager in a critical period… other than to say that I am very glad she was never my manager.

    I assume the judge will simply ignore all the proximate posturing in relation to Morrison et al as well as attempts to paint Reynolds as being very busy during the run up to the Budget. Being able to walk and chew gum was, after all, what she was being paid to do.

    That leaves the actual social media posts and their immediate consequences which, remarkably, received almost no (reported) attention at all.

    My guess. Yes, defamed. Stuff all direct consequences demonstrated by way of the six posts. Bugger all defo payout. Which leaves the biggie, IMO: costs.

  11. Socrates:

    I’m completely fine with people who actually use those vehicles for that purpose.

    But most are not. When I drive in to work in town here in Adelaide I go past the main entrance to a large private school called St Peters Boys College (SPC). The queue to turn into the schools seems to be 90% Toyota Landcruisers or similar, most with gleaming metallic paint that will never go near the bush. That is a waste.

    And that still doesn’t change the point, that those things are less safe for the rest of us. If you want to drive them in the city, you should at least pay the real cost in terms of insurance.

    We don’t let people smoke in public around others because it harms them. Why should we let people drive around in a vehicle that doubles or triples their risk of death in a collision?

    Yup, exactly this.

  12. The MSM are doing to their best to put lipstick on the pig that is Dutton just as they did with Abbott to try and make him electable. They’ve done it for years and always will. Sky News After Dark is just the LNP propaganda channel. Newspapers are not far behind either. They have certainly brainwashed most pensioners and rural communities thats for sure.

  13. Socrates

    Couldn’t agree more. I daresay the leafy western suburbs of Perth where private schools abound are similar. Not that I’d dare venture over there in my 10yo 4WD, much less at school drop-off time.

    I was just taking issue with the generalisation, that’s all.

  14. ‘The federal Liberal executive has intervened in the NSW party …

    ‘It recommended the appointment of former party president Alan Stockdale, former NSW planning minister Rob Stokes, and Howard-era communications minister Richard Alston. The NSW division has until next Thursday to comply with the request.

    ‘A Liberal source told Guardian Australia that women in the party had been “shocked to see not a single woman appointed”.’

    Same as it ever was …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/sep/03/nsw-liberal-party-federal-takeover-council-elections-alan-stockdale-rob-stokes-richard-alston

  15. Asha @ #564 Tuesday, September 3rd, 2024 – 6:24 pm

    We don’t let people smoke in public around others because it harms them. Why should we let people drive around in a vehicle that doubles or triples their risk of death in a collision?

    I don’t give a bugger that it increases their risk of death. That’s their choice. I do give a bugger that it increases my risk of death. They should not be allowed to do that.

  16. The CFMEU has briefed leading silk Brett Walker to represent it in the High Court & he might seek an interlocutory injunction upholding the status quo until the matter is finally determined.

    [‘The former national president of the CFMEU says a legal challenge has been launched in the High Court to laws forcing the construction union to accept administration.

    The federal government passed laws with the support of the Coalition to force the union to accept an administrator after it became evident a legal administration process would take weeks or months.

    The union faces allegations of consorting with organised crime groups, corruption and “thuggery”.

    On Tuesday the sacked CFMEU heads filed a challenge, claiming a forced scheme of administration was unconstitutional and undemocratic because it violated union members’ rights to due process.

    The union’s former national president Jade Ingham said that legislation had “stolen” the CFMEU from its members.

    “The most important people in this are the members of the CFMEU whose voices have been excluded. Members are furious about their union being taken away from them,” Mr Ingham said.

    “This is active treachery and class warfare against the working class in this country from the state and federal governments.”

    Mr Ingham said the group’s goal was to have the laws declared unconstitutional and the administrator removed, “in the same way that 2,750 democratically elected office-holders from our union were removed” last month.

    A team of barristers headed by Bret Walker SC will run the challenge, which was lodged by the CFMEU’s former Queensland secretary Michael Ravbar and the state assistant secretary’] – ABC.

  17. Will Judge make a call on the fortuitous hapenstance of the Higgins Sex Scandal
    allegations dropping in a Sitting Week while the Morrison Government was basking in justified praise for the [First & Second] World’s best handsling of the Covid hysteria?
    If he does, i’m predicting a 25.5% Morgan shall shortly follow.

  18. Badthinker: “… the [First & Second] World’s best handsling of the Covid hysteria (sic)?”

    Handsling, indeed. Scott ‘Nah, I’m going to the footy this weekend’ Morrison slung the responsibility to the State premiers.

    He doesn’t hold a hose, y’know. ‘That’s not my job!’

  19. dave says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 5:04 pm

    It’s nothing to do with reflecting anything – it’s about being comfortable and most small cars are not comfortable for me.

  20. Badthinker:

    Will Judge make a call on the fortuitous hapenstance of the Higgins Sex Scandal
    allegations dropping in a Sitting Week while the Morrison Government was basking in justified praise for the [First & Second] World’s best handsling of the Covid hysteria?
    If he does, i’m predicting a 25.5% Morgan shall shortly follow.

    Yes, I’m sure this case of a former Liberal minister suing a former Liberal staffer who was (allegedly) sexually assaulted by another former Liberal staffer in the ministerial office of the aforementioned Liberal minister shall reflect very poorly on the Labor party.

    Just what universe are you living in, Badthinker?

  21. I have a medium sized SUV. I need the clearance for my gold prospecting.
    Nothing worse than bottoming out on a remote bush track.

  22. Handsling, indeed. Scott ‘Nah, I’m going to the footy this weekend’ Morrison slung the responsibility to the State premiers.
    Rot.
    PMs can’t order State Premiers around.
    What Scotty did do was prevent them from making even bigger asshats outta themselves than the already were.
    Where are they now?
    Discredited and on the scrap heap.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Senator Babet got enougfh support to get an Inquiry inro Excess Deaths over the last few years off the ground.
    Guess who opposed it?
    If you guessed all the Labor and Greens Senators, go to the top of the class.

  23. The saga of the Seven network and its stable of dodgy blokes … the next instalment:

    ‘Sacked Channel Seven reporter Robert Ovadia has described Seven West Media as an “evil company” and claimed its “propaganda unit” is seeking to destroy his reputation.’

    ‘An additional 13 women have since come forward with complaints about the 51-year-old’s conduct, according to federal court documents.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/article/2024/sep/03/robert-ovadia-seven-reporter-allegations-ntwnfb

  24. Mostly Interested says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 6:15 pm

    That’s temporary. Can’t see how they could claim refugee status on that unless they are direct targets due to being Hamas supporters or members – which wins them a plane ride home, anyway.

  25. Taylormade

    “I have a medium sized SUV. I need the clearance for my gold prospecting.
    Nothing worse than bottoming out on a remote bush track.”
    —————————————

    Safety wise those aren’t an issue. Its all about the vehicle weight. Anything the same weight or less as, say, a Camry, is fine. So RAV4, CRX etc, all good.

    The issue is that most of the big, heavy 4WDs (e.g. Landcruiser, Pajero lwb, Patrol, HiLux, Ranger, Triton etc) weigh > 2 tonnes. So if they hit a normal sized car (say 1300 to 1500 kg) they do vastly more damage, because distribution of impact force in a collision is inversely proportional to object mass.

  26. Socrates says:
    Tuesday, September 3, 2024 at 6:18 pm

    Do you recall the conservative posters here before this trial trying to dream up reasons why it would be harmful to Labor, and that Albo should go to an early election to avoid embarassemsnet

    No.

  27. Just a crazy thought, but maybe the Palestinians are claiming refugee status due to the tiny strip of land they are presently crammed into being bombed into oblivion?

  28. The issue is that most of the big, heavy 4WDs (e.g. Landcruiser, Pajero lwb, Patrol, HiLux, Ranger, Triton etc) weigh > 2 tonnes. So if they hit a normal sized car (say 1300 to 1500 kg) they do vastly more damage, because distribution of impact force in a collision is inversely proportional to object mass.

    Uh huh.
    A Tesla is between 2 and 2.5 tonnes.
    Don’t they have accidents?

  29. Oliver Sutton @ #577 Tuesday, September 3rd, 2024 – 6:49 pm

    “The prime minister was slammed … after seemingly encouraging people to keep attending mass gatherings as coronavirus continues to spread in Australia.”

    ‘Slammed’, when translated into Badthinker-ese, becomes ‘basking in justified praise’.

    https://au.sports.yahoo.com/coronavirus-scott-morrison-slammed-encouraging-footy-attendance-232028748.html

    And remember how the WA Liberal party’s presence in the lower house was reduced to the size of a one-on-one counselling session when the party endorsed Morrison’s position on WA’s borders and campaigned against McGowan’s popular COVID measures?

    Now McGowan really was a political leader who genuinely basked in justified praise!~

  30. If the CFMEU wins the HC case, Albo is cooked.

    They should have worked with the pro-union Greens on a course of action rather than with anti-union Dutton.

  31. Badthinker: “Senator Babet got enougfh (sic) support to get an Inquiry inro (sic) Excess Deaths over the last few years off the ground.”

    Well, duh! Australia (and the world) experienced a COVID epidemic. People died.

    A ‘black swan event’ totally deserving of review and lessons learned.

  32. And remember how the WA Liberal party’s presence in the lower house was reduced to the size of a one-on-one counselling session when the party endorsed Morrison’s position on WA’s borders and campaigned against McGowan’s popular COVID measures?
    You can fool all the people some of the time.
    BTW, whatever happened to McGowan?
    He’s been veww, vewwy quiet?

  33. Socrates

    You are right of course about big car v small car in a collision.

    In WA we are having a bad run on the roads with the fatal numbers well above recent years. But without doing a deep dive into the stats I’ll say with some confidence I doubt that the issue is Landcruiser v Corolla in suburbia.

    It’s the rural and regional toll that is the issue and that is likely young males in single vehicle crashes.

    A recent city accident that is getting a lot media attention is because one of the two killed was a promising young footballer involved a driver allegedly behaving recklessly and the parents are front and centre in telling the story of how their lives have been affected.

    Young male motorcylists are also over represented in the figures.

  34. I have to say, Rex, I find your present attitude on the CMFEU incredibly disingenuous. For years, you have used them as your primary example of how Labor is wedded to the fossil fuel cartel and demanded that all ties be cut with them. Now the ALP is at the odds with the union, you are defending them?

  35. Badthinker: “If you guessed all the Labor and Greens Senators, go to the top of the class.”

    If I guessed that Labor and Greens senators opposed the swivel-eyed batshittery of Ralph Babet, that would constitute ‘a statement of the bleeding obvious’.

  36. Their ABC playing on the meme that the unions are all corrupt by suggesting corruption in the Victorian branch of the TWU. This is despite an inquiry clearing the leader of any inpropriety. Defund this right wing shower of shit. It is nothing more that a neo liberal mouth piece.

  37. Annastacia Palaszczuk – won the 2020 Qld Election and 60% of the Seats with the catchcry
    She Kept Us Safe
    Where’s she go?
    Labor had what, a 35% swing against it in her old seat 5 months ago.

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