Polling from the last few days offers some evidence that Kamala Harris is enjoying a modest post-convention bounce, with Nate Silver’s aggregate having her lead on the national popular vote out from 2.3 points to 3.8 points. However, Harris has taken a turn for the worse on Silver’s forecast model, on which Donald Trump is now rated a 52.4% chance of winning with Harris on 47.3%, restoring him to a marginal favouritism he lost at the start of the month. This is entirely down to state-level polling from Pennsylvania, where “it’s been a while since we’ve seen a poll showing her ahead”. However, Harris remains a 56-44 favourite in The Economist’s model, which has hitherto tracked Silver’s very closely. Adrian Beaumont has more at The Conversation.
Adrian Beaumont update at 2:08pm William’s link above referred to an article I published on Sunday. I’ve done another US article for The Conversation today which incorporates Nate Silver’s latest forecast.
August 12, but may still be of interest.
Mindscape 285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and Rationality
https://youtu.be/1QFiKpElVWo
(1 hour 10 minutes)
I haven’t watched it.
Team Katich @ #347 Wednesday, September 4th, 2024 – 12:28 pm
That’s the third piece of the puzzle. Introspection, personal responsibility, and considering the ways in which the system actually is stacked against you and how they could meaningfully be changed.
Preferential treatment afforded to people like Trump, and to those with large accumulations of capital in general, is a big part of that. And it’s got nothing to do with migrants, Muslims, trans people, or any of the other usual suspects. Throwing tax cuts and deregulation around isn’t going to help, either.
Victoria
“Trump looks more and more unhinged every day. His goose is cooked.”
Well, you hope it is. That’s not what the polls are telling us. In fact it’s even stevens as to whose goose gets cooked on November 5th.
a r
I think you are right about Trump’s working class support, grievance etc, but I think there are more components that are worth understanding – especially if you are Harris trying to win at least a few of them over.
* Some actually support his policies because they are socially conservative and Trump generally supports socially conservative policies, if only for expedient reasons rather than out of conviction (e.g. he was pro-abortion before he entered into politics – just as he used to support various NY Democrat politicians, including donating to Clinton!, before he decided to stake his claim decidedly in the GOP). And he has form – he appointed conservative justices to the Supreme Court, which is largely why a large cohort of those who disdained him in 2016 changed their minds and voted for him in 2020 and will do so in 2024 (remember, Trump got millions more votes in 2020 than 2016 even though Biden gained even more over what Clinton got).
* Many feel that their governments have been focusing on too many things not relevant to their lives, and that this is partly WHY they/the country hasn’t been prospering like it should. (this point is, of course, very much on the lines of what you were saying in your post).
* Many also see a direct link between the point above and the apparently uncontrolled immigration, where they see that what prosperity there is / might be, is divided up and distributed amongst vast hordes of legal and illegal aliens and that the rest of small town America is getting forgotten/neglected.
I doubt Harris is doing much for these people right now, but she still has a chance as she sets out her stall much more clearly over the coming weeks, to:
a) Win some of them over; or
b) At least not provoke them and make herself more polarising than than she already is (which is considerably more than Biden was, I doubt you’d find many people that couldn’t stand Biden whereas Elizabeth Warren/Gavin Newsom/Kamala Harris et al. . . are a different story.
People often overlook that you can unnecessarily drive higher turnout. . . for your OPPONENT. . . by being needlessly provocative of those who believe in different causes to you, or for making stupid mistakes or insults (think Clinton and her ‘deplorables’ comment)).
Harris seems to show good awareness on b) above, curbing her natural instincts perhaps. She just needs to make sure she doesn’t come across as unnatural and not standing for anything as a result. If she wants to win, she may as well embrace the liberal causes she actually believes in – they will call her a West Coast Liberal anyway – whilst on a personal level, offer olive branches and talk about policies and things that unite Americans more than things that divide them.
A few more interesting snippets from that USA Today/Suffolk poll that someone referred to:
“. . .about 1 in 10 voters say they might change their mind or are undecided.”
No comment re whose supporters are more likely to change their mind, or how big this component is compared to ‘undecided’. 1 in 10 this far out sounds remarkably small to me, but of course it’s still a very significant percentage.
“The boost for Democrats has extended down the ballot.
In June, registered voters said they supported their local Republican congressional candidate over the Democratic one by a narrow 47%-45%. Now likely voters support the Democratic candidate over the Republican by 48%-43%, still a small margin but a swing of seven points.”
And. . .
“In a USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll of registered voters in late June, Trump supporters were twice as likely as Biden supporters to report being “very excited” about voting for their candidate, 59%-30%.
Now enthusiasm among Trump supporters has stayed about the same, at 60%, in the new poll of likely voters. But enthusiasm among Harris supporters has eclipsed that level, at 68%, more than double Biden’s standing.”
That’s some change! Though if they were already motivated to vote AGAINST Trump, it’s difficult to assess the likely change to turnout this could bring.
Furthermore. . .
“On the economy, voters’ top concern, Trump was favored over Harris by 6 percentage points, 51%-45%. That’s an asset, to be sure, but it is less than half the 14-point advantage he held over Biden in June.
On immigration, an issue that energizes Republican voters, Trump was favored by 3 points, 50%-47%, down from the 13-point preference he had over Biden.
On national security and on dealing with China, Trump was preferred over Harris by 4 points, down from 10 points over Biden.
On health care and on race relations, Harris had double-digit advantages of 14 points and 19 points. Both were wider than the 10-point advantages that Biden held.”
Those are really significant numbers for Harris on the economy and immigration. I’ve not observed anything like that close to equal from other pollsters before on those 2 top issues for voters, so definitely something to watch as other pollsters release polls.
MSNBC video showing where the Trump campaign has allocated ad spending in potential battleground states. (Trump is way behind in donations. All figures are $millions.)
Arizona 9.9 T, 34.9 H
Michigan 6.6 T, 55.2 H
Nevada 1.4 T, 19.5 H
Nth Carolina 2.8 T, 26.0 H
Wisconsin 3.5 T, 33.1 H
Georgia 38.7 T, 39.0 H
Pennsylvania 70.6 T, 70.8 H
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56SoDt_ft7o
Thanks citizen. Presumably ad dollars reflect how important each state is seen to be by each party. Team T seems to have given up on all but GA and PA, where the amounts are suspiciously similar to Team H. (Down ballot is important too. I expect there are some unhappy Republicans in purple states.)
Pity the poor punters of Pennsylvania
“At least not provoke them and make herself more polarising than than she already is (which is considerably more than Biden was, I doubt you’d find many people that couldn’t stand Biden whereas Elizabeth Warren/Gavin Newsom/Kamala Harris et al. . . are a different story”.
Curious that Harris and the left more broadly must not be divisive or provocative yet the argument never applies to the right.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-campaign-kicks-reproductive-rights-tour-florida/story?id=113348291
In Florida! I’m really admiring the Harris campaign’s aggressive approach to expanding her pathway to the presidency.
It may be crazy brave.
”
Royal Doultonsays:
Wednesday, September 4, 2024 at 5:48 pm
“At least not provoke them and make herself more polarising than than she already is (which is considerably more than Biden was, I doubt you’d find many people that couldn’t stand Biden whereas Elizabeth Warren/Gavin Newsom/Kamala Harris et al. . . are a different story”.
Curious that Harris and the left more broadly must not be divisive or provocative yet the argument never applies to the right.
”
Right, across USUKA, are as polarising as hell.
Harris has Trump on the defense, and he keeps making the wrong move
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/9/3/2267629/-Harris-has-Trump-on-the-defense-and-he-keeps-making-the-wrong-move?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_5&pm_medium=web
“In recent weeks, Donald Trump has found himself in an unusual position. Whether it’s his disgusting actions at Arlington National Cemetery, his flip-flop-flip over Florida’s abortion-rights ballot measure, or unfounded attacks on Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, Trump is on the defensive.
It’s not that the media has stopped cleaning up Trump’s statements and making his rants sound semi-coherent. Or that it’s stopped applying a double standard that means many of Trump’s most egregious statements get ignored. It’s just that this is no longer enough.
Since Harris entered the race on July 21, Trump has been thrown off-stride. He didn’t plan to fight a tough, close campaign. He thought this was in the bag. But now he’s caught in a trap of reacting to Harris, and when he tries to struggle out, he and his arrogant campaign staff make things all the worse.
Continuing from @7:54 pm
“On Saturday, Harris blasted Trump’s actions at Arlington. Simply put, Trump’s campaign staff wanted to film a campaign video at a military cemetery—in a clear violation of both cemetery rules and federal law—and it then got into a physical and verbal altercation with a woman who tried to enforce those rules.
The campaign film itself appears to have been part of a scheme by Trump’s campaign to insinuate Trump was participating in a public ceremony that Harris and President Joe Biden chose to skip. However, that wasn’t the case: Trump’s wreath-laying and graveside thumbs-up was part of a private event to which neither Harris nor Biden was invited. It was a campaign stunt from beginning to end, created with the intention of embarrassing Harris.
Then it backfired.
But what’s really unusual, as columnist Will Bunch points out in The Philadelphia Inquirer, is that the story is still making the news a week later.
“In this wackadoodle election cycle conducted to the thundering pace of a clickbait media, most stories seem to have a shelf life of a few hours” Bunch writes. But Trump’s trip to Arlington is a “big exception.”
Trump’s usual reaction to any scandal—to bully his way past it until the press moves on—hasn’t worked in this case.
It’s not as if there haven’t been opportunities. Trump achieved the rare 360-degree flip-flop-flip last week by first declaring that he didn’t support Florida’s six-week abortion ban, then reversing himself within hours to say he would vote to keep it in place in November. Then Trump moved on to flip-flopping on legalizing recreational marijuana.
But that didn’t get Arlington off the page.
On Tuesday, Trump claimed that his team’s actions at Arlington National Cemetery were “made up” by Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
“There was no conflict or ‘fighting’ at Arlington National Cemetery last week,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform. “It was a made up story by Comrade Kamala and her misinformation squad.“
Except it’s a real story.
Drive by… Is that a new CNN poll of close states?
Royal Doulton
“Curious that Harris and the left more broadly must not be divisive or provocative yet the argument never applies to the right.”
That’s news to me. Where did that come from?
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/cnn-polls-battleground-states/index.html
Snap, TK!
Ven
It seems these threads have become the Daily Kos’s daily mouthpiece.
I think we all know what they think of Trump/Harris now and how they therefore spin everything – if we must have opinion pieces filling up this thread, can we at least try a new source?
citizen says:
Wednesday, September 4, 2024 at 4:00 pm
MSNBC video showing where the Trump campaign has allocated ad spending in potential battleground states. (Trump is way behind in donations. All figures are $millions.)
Arizona 9.9 T, 34.9 H
Michigan 6.6 T, 55.2 H
Nevada 1.4 T, 19.5 H
Nth Carolina 2.8 T, 26.0 H
Wisconsin 3.5 T, 33.1 H
Georgia 38.7 T, 39.0 H
Pennsylvania 70.6 T, 70.8 H
Trump is short of $, volunteers and ideas. He campaigns for Harris whenever he opens his mouth. The Democratic Party has totally wrong-footed the Republicans, who will be wondering what they can possibly do to avert defeat. There are 61 days until election day. The countdown is on. It’s very unlikely that Trump will reach any new cohorts, but the 1/3 possible voters who usually stay out of the fray will be heavily courted by the Democrats. Trump faces a sentencing in a New York Court in a few days. He faces a verdict from the people in 2 months. He has a lot to fear from both.
Those SSRS/CNN battlegrounds polls are certainly very positive overall for Harris, notwithstanding the Arizona anomaly in Trump’s distinct favour.
But it’s still the right side of ‘too close to call’ for Harris. It will be fascinating to see over the next 8 weeks if any marginal states ‘harden’ in favour of one candidate or another and which states, if any, go in the opposite direction.
Overall you feel the underlying picture in Wisconsin and Michigan favours Harris whilst the rest are just total toss-ups. My gut more than the polls, indicates that those that still show 50-50 come election day will fall Trump’s side of the line, but even if that supposition proves remotely correct – where will the polls actually be come election day? – maybe none of them will be 50-50 by then.
Certainly many on this site think the momentum will keep with Harris and that it will probably not even be that close in the end.
I’m just not sure if that’s because they spend too much time on sites that reinforce pre-held views, or because they’re closer to the pulse of the USA than I am.
Worth remembering that Trump’s fundraising hauls have stayed at pretty good levels and they’re not actually short of cash per se.
It’s just that they’re eclipsed by Harris’s quite remarkable influx of donations since she became the candidate.
I certainly wouldn’t take the GOP spend as a % of the Dem spend to date, as any kind of guide on the GOP’s view of their chances for that particular state. There’s quality as well as quantity, and there’s other ways of marketing apart from ads. And there’s plenty of time left to spend more money.
That said, money is useful and the Dem campaign has a lot more of it atm!
It could also be argued that Harris needs more money spent to tell her story because most people already feel like they know Trump well.
It does, of course, raise the stakes even higher for the unpaid marketing such as debates and rallies – for Trump especially I mean.
There’s simply no evidence for this view.
The race is pretty much tied. No comments posted here have indicated otherwise.
It could have been half as long and still said more or less the same thing: grist to the mill of considerations of Trump’s pesonality. It sort of gets to the core of Trump’s malignant narcissism without mentioning malignant narcissism. It avoids mentioning Trump’s dementia but has Trump contemplating – in his own terms – the consequences of his ageing.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/04/trump-kamala-election
Most people may feel they know Trump well. But many don’t know him at all.
The MSM has mostly been culpable when it comes to reporting Trump. That changed markedly once Biden quit. But Trump still gets a dream run from large swathes of the media.
I would be curious to know whether more money can get the Conway and Lincoln Project type messaging in front of shifters, Indies and uncerts.
Boerwar:
The framing of issues presented to Dems is through a Trump prism.
‘Sane washing’ is the best and most apt description of this media phenomenon when it comes to Trump.
“The race is pretty much tied. No comments posted here have indicated otherwise.”
Well, maybe it’s toned down a bit recently but even just from this thread we have these:
“Trump continues to campaign against himself/for Harris. Vote by vote, he’s inviting complete electoral oblivion. This cannot come soon enough but come it certainly will.”
“All the talk is that Harris/walz will just get over the line.
I dont see that at all. I see a big win coming up.
Trump is damaged in so many ways including his health.”
“Trump looks more and more unhinged every day. His goose is cooked.”
“The women are going to decide this election in an emphatic manner.”
“but it seems the ascension of Kamala Harris has blindsided the Republican Maga forces in an historic fashion. I don’t know how Trump can turn this around, he is going so badly right now and he is not the Trump of 8 years ago his mojo is gone.”
“As Harris creates further new ground there will be progressively less incentive for voters to roll up for Trump. There’s no point in voting for a forecast loser in a 2-horse FPTP contest. Trump is trying to maintain he’s in front for precisely this reason. He knows that as soon as he’s seen as a lost cause then he’s really finished. His shtick is mostly about dominating the news cycle and encouraging adulation. But he keeps on stuffing it up. He must know he faces ruin.”
“Right, across USUKA, are as polarising as hell.”
My point exactly
Don’t stress BTSays, I’m sure Trump will get his mojo back any minute now.
“That’s news to me. Where did that come from?”
Why shouldn’t Harris/Biden/Warren/Newsom be divisive or provocative.
”
BTSayssays:
Wednesday, September 4, 2024 at 8:20 pm
Ven
It seems these threads have become the Daily Kos’s daily mouthpiece.
I think we all know what they think of Trump/Harris now and how they therefore spin everything – if we must have opinion pieces filling up this thread, can we at least try a new source?
”
BT
when I post some opinion, I post it because either I mostly agree with it
or because that auhor put forward my viewpoint in a better expression.
BT You’re right of course. The polls are showing way too close to call either way. The past few elections. The closest which was 4 years ago in time showed that the Democrat margin going into “voting day” was much larger than the final result.
Does the same hold true in 2024? I’ve loosely (though non political friends would call it closely) followed US politics since the first Clinton (B) election. And become increasingly more (worryingly for an Aussie) more obsessed.
The variables this time are so different to previous elections.
Is it a “bread and butter” economy election? ie Cost of Living has been so poor that the incumbent is hit out of the park? If it is then Kamala is done and dusted and there will be many a nividia chip burnt on the production of the words written about why she was the wrong choice (they may make a bounce back on today’s losses). Funny (not funny) at the moment without a (mis quoted) “deplorables” then I’m not sure what would be blamed.
Do the voters put that aside and listen to those in the (Republican and Democrat) centre who have been at the coal face with Trump and his cronies and realise that their country (and the world) will be on the precipice of the late 1930’s if you let dumb, dumber and dumbest have the keys?
Every speech I’ve heard from Harris from the convention until now is “we are the underdog”, “hard work is good work”. I’d listen to her over any PB commentators.
Next week I suspect will get the “Rumble in the Jungle” level of notoriety over the years if a knock out is achieved.
Did a little travel down memory lane earlier this evening to see how Harris’s current polling position at this point in time (basically immediately after Labor Day) compares with Democratic candidates in previous elections.
In 2020, Biden was well and truly ahead, with projections suggesting as high as 350+
In 2016, Clinton was more or less on similar polling footing as Harris is now. Perhaps a bad portent.
In 2012, Obama was well ahead but around the 320 mark – not too different from the actual result.
In 2008, Obama (and you’re not going to believe this) was also at a similar position as Harris is now and Clinton was in 2016. So maybe not a bad sign. Who knows?
In 2004, BTW, Bush was slightly ahead at this point but polling was a little bit more erratic.
That’s as far back as I went. Take what you will from that, if anything.
Royal Doulton
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/08/30/us-presidential-election-minus-10-weeks/comment-page-8/#comment-4362084
No reason at all. And the answer to my question is. . .?
parkySP
Thanks for your 10.27pm post.
I also think that one thing Harris has been doing wrong since replacing Trump is that she (at least appears to have) stopped the dire warnings about this election being about saving democracy.
Now personally I think that’s hyperbole, but I do think it was an effective message Biden had. Ok it may have been the only message. . .! – but you shouldn’t throw out the baby with the bathwater.
Now it’s so diluted if it is being said at all that it’s actually being forgotten (others on here may tell me it’s still being said lots – but I’m not aware of it so that just proves my point in a way). It’s all very well generating tonnes of enthusiasm in the base and having a campaign with positive razz-matazz, but when the genuine undecideds and/or unengaged cast their vote what will have stuck in their mind that is compelling enough to have made them vote one way or another?
Wat
That’s very interesting.
But Obama was mostly well ahead in 2008. Perhaps that point you pick on was after the brief spike for Republicans in the immediate aftermath of picking Sarah Palin? – or no?
Kamala HQ
@KamalaHQ
Q: If a national abortion ban came across your desk, would you veto it?
Trump: I don’t want to answer(video)
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1831128339022479861?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1831128339022479861%7Ctwgr%5E4a7a37840c520f2719af61f5d4024c263cfe2fbe%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2024%2F9%2F4%2F2267766%2F–A-gender-chasm-Harris-edge-with-women-grows-as-GOP-leans-into-sexism
Are you surprised?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/sep/04/trump-harris-biden-campaign-election-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-66d8a1608f08486d64f30fc8#block-66d8a1608f08486d64f30fc8
BT,
Kamala Harris has replaced ‘saving democracy’ as her campaign message because the Democrats were being told that the concept was too nebulous and hard to comprehend in a granular way by most voters. So they replaced it with ‘Freedom’ and put ‘Voting Rights’, which is approximately the same thing as ‘democracy’, under that rubric. As well as encompassing other freedoms. It’s working better for them.
Pretty much even stevens! But Harris has done very well to tighten this all up. Dems were headed for certain defeat with Biden.
https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/1831322316132769965/photo/1
Harris is likely to extend her polling support in the tight contests…more $, more volunteers, more enthusiasm, more compelling issues….and Trump, unfailingly, is campaigning for Harris too. He is a reason not to vote Republican, in the same way that Biden was a reason not to vote Democrat.
New CNN/SRSS battleground state poll is mostly treading water…
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/cnn-polls-battleground-states/index.html
CNN declaring a 4.9 point MOE in individual states
Big Latino poll.. still has Harris behind what Biden got
https://youtu.be/vRrZbeemNFw?si=aRByaWr-aJTC6qOb
WASHINGTON, DC – UnidosUS, the nation’s largest Latino civil rights and advocacy organization, today released findings from its 2024 Pre-Election Poll of the Hispanic Electorate. The survey of 3,000 Latino voters shows that the top five priorities, two months out from the election, are dominated by cost-of-living issues — inflation, wages, housing and health care costs — with immigration and gun violence tied at number five.
Poll results, as well as additional Congressional district-level data for the Latino voting-age population provided by the USC Center for Inclusive Democracy, can be found in UnidosUS Hispanic Electorate Data Hub, launched last November to advance a more accurate understanding of this electorate.
…..
On voting
In 2024, 23% of Latinos will be voting in their first presidential election.
37% of the Latino electorate is new since the 2016 election presidential election.
While a majority of Latinos are certain they will vote, many are still deciding.
Early outreach is key: 33% plan to vote early, 28% by mail and 39% on Election Day.
55% say they have not been contacted this cycle by the parties or organizations.
On the parties and candidates
On priority issues overall, Democrats are more trusted than Republicans. However, more than a quarter of Latino voters do not clearly see either as a champion of their concerns, with 28% saying neither, both or don’t know which party would be better at addressing their priority issue.
Vice President Harris holds a +27-point lead in support from Latino voters over former President Trump: 59% to 31%.
https://unidosus.org/press-releases/unidosus-voter-poll-pocketbook-issues-still-top-latino-priorities/
L.O.S.E.R.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/sep/04/trump-media-djt-stock
Kamala Harris has replaced ‘saving democracy’ as her campaign message because the Democrats were being told that the concept was too nebulous and hard to comprehend in a granular way by most voters.
——————————————-
Ha! Oh my happy aunt. The Beacon is dim? Who knew?
We shouldn’t be surprised, US democracy is and always has been more than a bit dodgy – and let’s not forget the many examples of foreign policy supporting dictators when it suits them.
If we have to dumb down the term democracy, I guess we give up on such concepts as pluralism and… dare I say it…. liberalism that FoxNews has somehow bastardised into meaninglessness. forget the constitution, every citizen should have a small book of definitions instead of letting FoxNews redefine them all.
I’m with Bill Maher on this, if peeps in the US can analyse complex matters when it comes to sports; digesting injury reports, selections, trade windows, rotations, techniques, etc etc…. They can figure out the basics of civics. They just need to stop getting the information from mad uncle Rupert.
brave of them.
538 dont rate them too highly – considering how much exposure it gets through CNN.
The republicans know that Trump is the albatross around their neck. He is a treasonous piece of crapola after all.
What to do? I would recommend he keep away from windows. Lol
If anyone is surprised, they have not been paying attention.
———
NEW: CNN has independently confirmed the Russia funded US media company that paid American right-wing social media stars is Tenet Media, based in Tennessee.
Some very big names tied up in all of this.
Reporting w/ @ZcohenCNN @evanperez @snlyngaas
Victoria @ #398 Thursday, September 5th, 2024 – 8:48 am
Just the start I suspect. Peeps, especially MAGA peeps, have no shame or risk aversion or limit to hypocrisy when it comes to accepting funding. And no consideration to future effects to being “bought” by an overseas entity – or even an adversary.
It is disturbing but… the US does this sort of thing around the globe too. So dont blame the Russians.
Team Katich
Don’t blame the Russians? They are causing so much instability in the world right now. Not forgetting Ukraine, the Middle East and African countries they have got their paws in.
The sooner Putin exits stage left, the better.