Click here for full display of Northern Territory election results.
Tuesday evening
My read of Fannie Bay remains that the CLP are likely but not certain to achieve each of the things they need to happen to win: first, that the Greens rather than Labor makes the final count, and second, that they stay ahead of the Greens after preferences. The odds on the latter seem to be shortening: today’s additions broke 501-482 to the CLP, increasing their lead from 36 to 55. The current CLP win probability of 88% shown on my results display leans heavily on what I think might be a generous educated guess of 360 formal votes still to be added to the count. I actually only think there will be about 200 postals and 40 provisionals, which would make a reversal unlikely. Labor are 42 behind the Greens on the primary vote, which they can make up through preferences out of the 177 votes for independent Leonard May or votes yet to be counted. If there are indeed 200 postals and they behave the same way as the ones already counted, Labor will make up 23 votes.
Monday evening
The big news in today’s counting is that a fresh two-candidate count shows the CLP is a much stronger chance of winning Fannie Bay than was realised, from what would appear to be a remarkably weak flow of preferences from Labor to the Greens. The conventional view was that the seat would be won by whichever out of the Greens and Labor came second, with the preferences of the excluded candidate to ensure the other victory over the CLP. That the NTEC has chosen to jettison the original count in favour of one excluding Labor might suggest it has reason to believe it is Labor that will drop out, but that is only conjecture.
If that is indeed what happens, a count that currently has the CLP leading the Greens by 1775 votes to 1739 will become operative. This is running 534 votes behind the primary vote count, suggesting the Ludmilla booths and the postals are yet to be added, that being the total number of formal votes from these two booths. This suggests the Greens have received 714 preferences from Labor and independent Leonard May, while the CLP has received 365.
Even if every one of the 108 votes for May went to the CLP, this would suggest less than three-quarters of Labor’s votes were flowing to the Greens, which compares with around 84% under similar circumstances in Brisbane and Ryan at the 2022 federal election. If the current preference flow sustains over the votes to be added, the CLP lead will increase from 36 to 74. The Greens could make that up on absents and provisionals, but outstanding postals should to run against them.
End of Saturday night
Whereas the CLP’s last win in 2012 was the result of an unanticipated backlash against Labor in the bush, this time was the reverse, with Labor getting savaged in the city and the towns while the bush hardly swung at all. The result is that four out of the five members Labor looks sure of returning are of Indigenous background, the exception being former leader Natasha Fyles in Nightcliff (which the ABC isn’t giving away due to the outside chance of a Greens boilover).
Labor was heavily defeated in the four Darwin and Palmerston seats it held on single-digit margins, which increases to five if you include Blain, where Labor-turned-independent member Mark Turner did well but not well enough. The swing was particularly forceful in northern Darwin, where Labor appears to have lost three of the four seats that delivered them their biggest margins in 2020 — most spectacularly in the case of Wanguri, vacated by former deputy leader Nicole Manison, on a swing to the CLP of 27.4%.
The Greens had their best performance yet at a Northern Territory election, and are a strong chance of gaining their first ever seat in Fannie Bay. Their candidate leads Labor incumbent Brent Potter by 1106 votes to 1038, a gap he needs to close with around 1000 outstanding postals, absents and declarations — which were collectively around 5% stronger for Labor in 2020 than the vote types counted so far — together with preferences from an independent who is currently on 128 votes. The Greens also outpolled Labor in the two Alice Springs seats and are, as noted, an outside chance in Nightcliff, depending on the unknown factor of preferences from a progressive independent who polled 19.0%.
Of the three independents who were elected in 2020, two were re-elected (Yingiya Mark Guyula in Mulka and Robyn Lambley in Araluen), while a third (Kezia Purick in Goyder) retired and failed to convince voters to back her favoured successor. My results system says they will be joined by Justine Davis in the northern Darwin seat of Johnston, though I personally advise caution. Davis leads Labor incumbent and leadership aspirant Joel Bowden by 1080 votes to 918 and will chase down the CLP candidate if she can stay there. That will be matter of preferences from the 297 Greens votes plus around 1000 outstanding votes, mostly absents and postals, on which independents tend not to do well, giving Bowden an outside chance.
There are three seats that my system isn’t calling for the CLP yet, despite leaning heavily in that direction. These are Casuarina and Sanderson, which forcefully participated in the northern Darwin tidal wave — and, conversely, Barkly, which covers Tennant Creek and surrounding remote territory, which the CLP have struggled to retain after winning by five votes in 2020. Assuming they pan out as expected, the CLP will match its last win in 2012 by winning 16 seats out of 25, while Labor will have a bedrock of five seats to which they still have a chance of adding Fannie Bay and Johnston. We can expect to see some outstanding early votes and the first batches of postals added to the count tomorrow.
Live commentary
11.39pm. The NTEC has put out a circular noting that counting has finished for the night.
11.33pm. My system is now calling Johnston for independent Justine Davis, because it no longer rates Labor a possibility of reducing her to third. I would note though that Antony Green pointed out that absent votes are notoriously bad for independents, and I wouldn’t discount the possibility that my system doesn’t have this properly priced in.
11.30pm. I’ve now got the Greens in the lead in Fannie Bay, after fixing an issue that was causing it to split preferences 50-50 and thus give it to the CLP. My projection of the three-party count is now CLP 40.1%, Greens 30.2% and Labor 29.7%, in a scenario where whichever out of Labor and the Greens drops out will deliver the seat to the other on their preferences. Obviously this is close enough that it could very much go either way.
9.54pm. I hadn’t noted the strength of the Greens’ performance in Nightcliff, where they could finish second depending on the unknown of how the independent’s preferences flow. They could theoretically win from there if enough CLP voters ignore the party’s how-to-vote card and put Labor last, but my feeling is that this is unlikely.
9.00pm. I’m now calling five seat for Labor, now including a fairly remarkable win in the more-often-than-not conservative seat of Daly, and they’re at least a chance in four others. One of those would be at the expense of a potential independent, and the other of the Greens. So Labor’s best case scenario of nine would mean a cross bench of two, and its worst case of five would mean a cross bench of four. The range of possibilities for the CLP is a bare majority of 13 to 16.
8.49pm. I’ve now got Labor rather than the Greens making the final count and winning Fannie Bay, but there’s absolutely nothing in this. It’s one of three seats where I’ve got the Greens in the hunt to reach the final count (though the only one where they’re a chance of winning), something they have never done in an NT election before.
8.48pm. My system now has the CLP to 14 seats, calling the Alice Springs seat of Braitling as a CLP retain after what appeared to be an outside chance of a Greens upset.
8.37pm. New numbers in from Fannie Bay, and the result there is an anomaly with the CLP failing to make up much ground amid a swing from Labor to the Greens. Little in it as to who out of Labor and the Greens will make the final count — whoever it is will have a close race with the CLP.
8.33pm. My system is no longer rating Labor-turned-independent Mark Turner a chance of retaining Blain, which gives the CLP its thirteenth seat and a majority.
8.30pm. One bright spot for Labor is Daly, which Dheran Young won for Labor at a mid-term by-election and looks a good chance of retaining, giving them what looks like a fifth seat. That would maintain a record of anomalous behaviour for this seat, which was one of only two the CLP held in the 2016 landslide.
8.26pm. That issue with Johnston is now corrected. So what shows on the results page is a clear win for independent Justine Davis over the CLP in two-party terms, but that’s assuming the independent indeed finishes second. My preference estimates get the three-candidate result to independent 34.1%, CLP 33.1% and Labor 32.7%. Labor has to close a 1.7% gap over Davis, failing which she will win.
8.19pm. My system was splitting preferences evenly between the CLP and the independent in Johnston when they should have been 80-20 to the independent. That will get corrected in the next update, and the contest will correctly be seen as one to be decided by who out of the independent and Labor comes second (bringing the CLP ahead tally down from 18 to 17), which is absolutely lineball.
8.15pm. First numbers in from Labor’s very tight marginal of Port Darwin, and it’s unsurprisingly being called for the CLP with a swing in the low double digits, making it their twelfth confirmed seat.
8.14pm. While the results remain loaded to election day, such early voting centres as have reported are showing similar swings.
8.08pm. My system’s call of Drysdale for the CLP gets them to eleven confirmed seats, two off from a majority, and they’re ahead in another eight.
8.05pm. Another update is through, and my system is calling Eva Lawler’s seat of Drysdale for the CLP, as I gather is Antony Green as we speak. But the two Labor-held seats that hitherto hadn’t reported, Arnhem and Nightcliff, now have numbers — I’m calling the former a Labor hold, and very close to doing the same with the latter.
8.04pm. Antony Green discussing Johnston now. His assumption is that Greens preferences will favour independent Justine Davis over Labor’s Joel Bowden, which could decide the result in her favour. Failing that, Bowden will hold the seat for Labor. My system is working off the rough-and-ready estimate of Greens preferences going 40-40-20 Labor-independent-CLP, but even so it has Davis rather than Bowden reaching the final count — and contrary to Antony’s surmise, it’s not writing off the CLP.
7.58pm. Labor could end up with as few as four seats. That assumes their margin is too big to fail in Nightcliff, where there are no votes yet, and are safe in the remote seat of Arnhem, ditto. Other than that, they should hold the remote seats of Arafura and Gwoja.
7.56pm. Independent Justine Davis polling well in the Darwin seat of Johnston, which she rather than the CLP might take from Labor.
7.54pm. I now see the Greens are running second on Fong Lim as well as Fannie Bay, but seemingly only a threat in the latter.
7.53pm. Independent Robyn Lambley looking good in her Alice Springs seat of Araluen, which she nearly lost when she ran with the Territory Alliance in 2020.
7.52pm. Local peculiarities: ex-Labor independent Mark Turner not out of the hunt in Blain based off a small early result, though the CLP are ahead. Labor doing relatively well in the remote seats of Arafura and Gwoja. Greens as noted before coming first in the Darwin seat of Fannie Bay (though even stevens on a booth-matched basis) and Braitling in Alice Springs, though no updates for a while from other.
7.48pm. I’ve got Wanguri in northern Darwin down as a CLP gain from Labor from a swing of 23.4%. The caveat should be noted that we’re seeing entirely election day booths here, but the strength of the trend appears unmistakeable.
7.45pm. And now that I know it’s running smoothly, a plea for donations from any of you who are enjoying my election results pages. This involved a lot of work — probably no less than for a state election, given my need to code my around local peculiarities (like two-candidate contests and a Labor forfeit in the seat of Mulka).
7.40pm. I’ve now got the CLP winning two seats from Labor and one where an independent is retiring, and ahead in another three Labor-held seats. They go in with seven, so if they stay ahead in all of them they get to 13 out of 25 even without three further Labor-held seats in Darwin that haven’t reported yet. The Greens are finishing second in Braitling as well as Fannie Bay, though the former doesn’t look a show for them. My territory-wide TPP estimate is 56.9-43.1 to the CLP.
7.32pm. Antony Green points out that Gillen is a new booth for Namatjira purposes, so when I say Labor won it last time, that’s based on estimate (possibly of votes redistributed into the seat).
7.25pm. I’m projecting an overall two-party results of around 56-44 from the CLP, which will start showing on my election results landing page shortly.
7.23pm. The Greens doing very well in Fannie Bay, outpolling Labor and taking it right up to the CLP.
7.20pm. Another update through, and my system is calling the important Darwin seat of Karama for the CLP with a swing approaching 20%.
7.18pm. Progress still slow on the results feed, but anecdotal talk mounting on the ABC of a bad result for Labor.
7.09pm. Results from four seats: two Palmerston seats and two regional ones, with double-digit swings in three of the four, the exception being the remote seat of Gwoja.
7.08pm. Some results on the NTEC site: Labor lost the Gillen booth in Namatjira, which they won in 2020, 80-37.
7.00pm. Antony Green addressing the NTEC’s slow progress on the ABC — no major problem according to the NTEC, just nothing through yet.
6.48pm. On the ABC, CLP spokesperson Gerard Maley says they are doing very well in Goyder, where an independent is retiring, and Labor are troubled by what they’re seeing across the board.
6.45pm. Slower progress than I’d figured.
6.33pm. No official figures yet, but Natasha Fyles on the ABC says Labor scrutineers are optimistic about Daly, and the Greens are apparently doing well in the CLP-held Alice Springs seat of Braitling. The former is based on the Wagait Beach booth, which only had 161 votes in 2020.
6pm. Polls have closed. With low candidate numbers and some very small booths, we should start to see results quite promptly.
5.45pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the count for the Northern Territory election, for which polls close in a quarter of an hour. The link above you takes you to my live results page, where you will find seat projections and win probabilities, booth results in table and map format, and a crude but hopefully effective progressive estimate of the territory-wide two-party preferred. The method by which the latter is produced side-steps the difficulty of Labor’s no-show in Mulka by calculating a swing for the other 24 seats and adding it to the two-party result from 2020 (53.3-46.7 to Labor, according to Antony Green’s estimate).
… surprisingly weak Labor preference flows to the Greens potentially deciding the result for the CLP.
Huge for Labor
if the Rusties aren’t following the HTVs.
C’mon – what’s your gut feeling.
Greens or CLP.
I think the Greens only need about 65% of the ALP votes, to snag this seat.
Is it the case that postal votes tend to favor the CLP? If so it seems that the CLP will gain Fannie bay. While Nightcliff should go the ALP.
Making it:
CLP 17
ALP 5
Other 3
Observations for this outcome:
Interesting to see that Fannie Bay if it goes to the CLP It will do so off the back of ALP preferences.
The shrinking cross cross bench from 4 down to 3.
I think there might be some lessons in there for everyone.
4cnrs tonight well worth a look
Vlad says:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 5:24 pm
======================
Vlad,
I just noticed this post of yours.
I engage with most posters on this site. I don’t trash other posters and as a result I get along with most. Boer’s OK. He’s a black and white poster and doesn’t fluffy around with his opinions.
You don’t like his opinions, use your scroll wheel. No need to have a crack at other posters as there has been enough tension on the site this past couple of months. Peace & scroll wheel, is the best. Trust me.
You should be happy about Fannie Bay anyway. WB hasn’t called it yet, might be a couple of days away.
Open Q to anyone.
When Labor gets distributed, how generally to their preferences flow?
Boerwar says:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 8:32 pm
When I think of all the vitriol the Greens direct at Labor it astonishes me that the Greens would be expecting any Labor preferences at all.
======================================
I never thought of this, but you might be right on this one.
Clearly a lot of ALP supporters think the way you do.
Payback!
I have to say, I’ve found this NT election fascinating
@nadia88
Labor preferences across Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan flowed approximately 5-1 for the Greens over the Coalition. The exact rates by seat were between 82 and 85 percent to Greens and between 15 and 18 percent for the LNP. A reason for a lower flow in Fannie Bay (possibly even only 65%, which may give the CLP a shock win) may be the fact that the NT ALP is not as progressive as the inner-Brisbane ALP (look at Brent Potter’s controversies – I am shocked he was even endorsed for re-election).
I know many ALP voters who would never preference the Greens, and not because of payback but because they know the greens are batshit crazy.
I’ve only scrutineered at strong Labor booths in Qld, 95% at a minimum follow the HTV.
28% is The Rusties, if they’re not following Labor’s HTVs across the board in Darwin, Labor is in a heap of diabolicals everywhere.
However, it could just be an issue of personalities in Fannie Bay too.
From observation, older female Rusties are filthy on the Greens eating Labor’s lunch, which they’re trying to do in FBay.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Here’s the NTEC latest on Fannie Bay.
https://ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/current-election
Thanks Badthinker. Great link. It comes up as “page not found”.
I’ll give you 1 out of 10 for your pick too, even though you were 3 mins late.
I think what is more likely is that Boerwar was up Fannie Bay last week.
Boer’s attitude would be, “you want CLP, you can have CLP. See you at the next election”.
Hardly any surprise Grumpy Grandma lost. She was coming across like Pauline Hanson almost.
Thanks Nadia.
Here it is:
https://ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/current-elections/2024-territory-election/results
Thanks 2/12/72
So Greens pref Labor around the 85% mark, and Labor does likewise to the Greens, just a bit lower.
Cheers Badthinker.
oK , i’ll give you now 3 out of 10, for the NT election call.
That Fannie Bay division, gosh I’ve never seen anything so tight.
Labor needs about 66% of Leonard May’s preferences to overcome the Greens.
Nadia:
One interesting example is Warren-Blackwood in the 2013 WA election. Labor came fourth with the Nats (incumbent), Libs and Greens all in the race. Their preferences (plus a few hundred votes they picked up from the stragglers) went like so:
Green 2264 (64.2%)
Nat 970 (27.5%)
Lib 293 (8.3%)
The 3cp (Nat/Lib/Grn) ended up as 38.2 / 31.7 / 29.0 – less than 3% from the Greens ending up in the top two. Those Greens prefs went on to split about evenly between Nat and Lib.
The weird thing is… Labor and the Greens both had the Libs ahead of the Nats on their HTV cards. I guess the parties hated Terry Redman more than their voters did. Meanwhile despite Labor’s HTV presumably having the Greens ahead of either conservative party, over a quarter of their voters preferred Redman.
_______
Now, the Nedlands by-election all the way back in 2001. The Greens actually started third but jumped over Labor on the prefs of the Democrats and “Liberals for Forests” (a proto-teal sorta thing that made the 2cp at the general election, and also won the seat of Alfred Cove). Labor’s prefs (again, including what they picked up from LFF and others) went about 85-15 to the Greens – much more like those federal seats in Brisbane.
PS: If you think this is tight, check out Prahran in Vic, where the Greens managed to win from third two elections in a row (2014 and 2018). 2014 in particular is wild… simultaneously marginal in two different ways.
nadia88says:
Monday, August 26, 2024 at 9:01 pm
I have to say, I’ve found this NT election fascinating.
_____________________
So have I.
Bit of a reality check for the Labor supporters on this blog.
Has brought them down a peg or two.
Boerwar at 4.56 pm + Nadia88 (a pertinent old saying for you)
Dutton flogged those shonky neddies (except for the black and white focus on Gaza, which does not get noticed by most marginal voters in marginal seats) in the April 2023 Dunkley by-election and ran a poor race.
What has changed? As you have repeatedly noted, hip-pocket voters have developed “ADHD”.
Seriously, the federal election will be either early March (with WA election delayed a little) or late May. With only 3 months worth of polling this year, there is unlikely to be a significant gap open up either way, so the next really important polling is almost 6 months away in Feb.
“Patience is a virtue
Possess it if you can
Seldom in a woman
Never in a man”.
The first line is from William Langland’s 1360 poem Piers Plowman. The rest is but a challenge for both genders.
Fyles should give Labor Nightcliff unless the Indp does some amazing things. No urban seats for Labor would have a been a first at any election.
Nightcliff voted 59% for the voice so not surprising most progressive and a Labor survivor. Next for the voice in Darwin was Fannie Bay at 48% so no doubt why now very tight and could go any 3 ways.
Dr D
Albanese…
Homeward plods the ploughman his weary way…
Thanks Bird of Paradox.
Not too many elections where Labor gets distributed so it will be interesting to see the exact preference flow, if it eventuates.
CLP lead by 101 in Fbay now with 2pp done for postals. The Ludmilla booth 2pp needs to be added and KB says 470 absents as well which both will favour Greens/Labor so a bit still to go.
Labor won Ludmilla by 64 votes and absents by 150 votes in 2020. Won’t get as much this time due to the size of the swing but looks a close thing with the leaking of Labor preferences.
Very close.
39 votes between 2nd & 3rd.
I would never have thought the CLP could jag this seat.
Nightcliff is also looking a bit interesting although if the CLP drop to third, i’m sure they would preference Labor over Green.
39 votes is tight Nadia.
The key may be how the absent votes behave. In 2020 Labor got 200 more absents than the Greens but no idea how 2024 will evolve. Plus May has no how to vote card I can find so no idea how he will flow. But
the Greens did poorly on absents in 2020, so labor may get ahead of the Greens and win on the usual green preferences.
Looking at Nightcliff, only the independent can beat labor on the preference flow, but the other independent got only 76 votes and the main independent is 74 votes behind the Greens in 4th place so can’t past the Green and I think its over.
I tried to do a bit of research on May to find out he was indie left or right.
Couldn’t find anything.
Greens have been a bit of a surprise this election. I’m guessing when QLD occurs some inner Brissy seats are going to tumble to the Greens.
What’s Newspoll going to be on Sunday, or are you out of that business. Ha
Now 76 votes lead to CLP with Ludmilla added. Green picked up 25 votes.
Newspoll prediction right now 50-50 going off Morgan as don’t like Essential excluding undecided which they need to stop.
But if Labor get more under the pump from Wed to Sat when polling occurs perhaps Dutton can edge ahead 50.5-49.5 but doubt it as Newspoll moves very slowly unlike Morgan.
Yes, i like Morgan, YouGov & Newspoll.
Essential & Resolve – not keen
Freshwater/Redbridge – undecided. Red usually does a good sample > 1500. Their next one should be late Oct. ALP primary in a bit of strife atm. 8 polls sub 30 since Jul.1 . 9 if you include this election, and 10 if this morning’s Tas state poll is included. Not the best.
I’d say by early Oct, probably not this Sunday, we’ll get a sub 30 Newspoll.
That Fannie Bay count has been extremely close. Been a fascinating election, and me thinks a relevent warm up act before QLD. Neither WB or AntonyG have called it
The ACT election of course looks Labor. The 3 seats there federally supported yes 70%/57%/56% for the voice plus all the public service. I looked at the ACT Libs Facebook page and they are starting to push crime which I think is their one hope. Because really if they can’t be competitive at this election, with the current environment, they will never be again against the ACT Labor/Greens Coalition.
Per Fannie Bay – The gap is now 55 votes.
Greens closing in?
AG and KB reckon the CLP probably have a 17th seat. All the absents counted, Labor did crap, Greens did not do enough, and CLP might hold on now as gap only closed by 21 votes with not much left – postals and declarations. The Absents for 2024 were totally different from 2020 where Labor dominated.
So will the Greens miss out again, just.
I thought the postals usually favour the left, or was that just during covid.
Boer – i apologise for the slur yesterday too. As pointed out up thread, it wasn’t necessary.
I had high hopes for e Green breakthrough in Fannie Bay.
25% more of the vote to count, surely there is hope.
Looks like CLP wins FBay.
The best pref flow from Labor is 75%
,
dunno what’s noirmal for the Territory, but compared to Qld that’s very undisciplined by the Rusties, imo.
https://ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/current-elections/2024-territory-election/results/fannie-bay
edit:
25% more to count?
Zio has killed it on Postals and Absents, would be unusual for that trend to completely reverse?
I thought the postals favoured the left.
25% to count, or are we near the limit.
Postals normally favour the conservatives more so in country areas .Labor does not control the flow of preferences the alp voters do. In a bad election the flow will be weaker than usual. I generally consider the greens to be on.the side of the left but misguided in some of their policies and actions never the less I will preference the greens second in the senate after the alp .
25% to go are you sure?
Various blogs suggest there are not many votes left to count..of course there are some postal to come in. But they will probably not help Labor or the greens. If this is super close then maybe this seat will get a rerun
The 74.8% likely means percentage of enrolments counted, it’s Tuesday, they usually wait for Postals until Friday Week, but should have counted the Declaration votes by now.
https://ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/current-elections/2024-territory-election/results/fannie-bay
Turnout is 74.8%, there could be more Postals at the mail centres, so I wouldn’t concede yet.
100 votes is the cutoff for a full recount in Qld and Federally.
I heard elsewhere there was a Max of 150 votes left to count. To get half
75 plus peg back say 50. Is 125 out of 150…. this is impossible
The postals will drip in, and a 74.8% turnout suggests there are still a few votes out there somewhere.
I understand this has been a “lower than low, turnout” election, but 3 in four voters bothering to vote is pretty poor, especially given FanBay is a city electorate. There must be more votes out there somewhere.
If not, the NTEC is going to make a lot of money issuing fines for non voting.
Note too, that neither WB or AG have called this seat. Could go on late this week, if not next week.
My gut is that the Greens will ping this seat, although other good posters have suggested it will be the CLP’s 17th seat.
Here’s a pic of Deputy Sheriff Stokes Micenheimer
with ballot box 13.
https://www.coltforum.com/threads/john-buckley-sheriff-of-duvall-county-texas-1890-96.395538/#lg=thread-395538&slide=2
The story is in the ’48 Texas Senate primary, LBJ was 100 odd behind, all the boxes had been counted, then the cops in Jim Wells County found Box 13.
It had 200 fer Lyndon, 3 for the other poor sap.
Hence the moniker: Landslide Lyndon.
So, never give up hope!
Don’t start this Badthinker.
Gosh, we’ll end up with stories about ballots being stuffed into goodness knows where in the middle of the night, like the 2020 US election.
This is a rivetting election.
I’m waiting for WB to drop a quick update, if he has time.
I am casting no aspersions, Nadia88.
Just saying, never give up hope.
Ok, no probs badthinker.
I feel I’ve pulled a bit of an outlier here about the Greens pinging it. On my lonesome.
KB, AG, michael and jacobin are fairly confident of a CLP victory.
WB is keeping cards close.
Actually, just checking, AG hasn’t called it either.
Story re LBJ… the democratic primary in those days was the decider… the electors always voted for the democrat nominee. In his first attempt lbj was out cheated he learned his lesson well and cheated to win. There were future appeals within the democratic party…*Texas state executive *? Which Johnson won also narrowly. Johnson was a competent politician who knew how to persuade people to his point of view. But he had many objectionable personal qualities.
Heard ntec will do a indicative throw of the preferences (177) of the last placed candidate Mr
May to see if that clarifies who won Fannie
Bay
The AEC made a particular effort in the NT to sign people up to the electoral roll ahead of the Voice referendum. Looks like some people got shuffled from “not on the roll, didn’t vote” to “on the roll, didn’t vote”, which clips the turnout by a few %. The NT always has lower enrolment / turnout than the rest of Australia.
Here’s a seat Fannie Bay just reminded me of: Preston in Vic 2022. Labor out in front but a long way from 50%, followed by Libs, Greens and a left-wing independent on fairly similar votes, ending up as a Labor/Green 2cp. Labor ended up winning that one by about 2%. They even counted a provisional 2cp between Labor and the indie who came fourth – not every day that happens.
I’m surprised too Bird.
The AEC went to a lot of effort last year, yet 10 months after the Voice, we have low turnout.
It has been an interesting election. I realise some of the seats in Sydney & Melbourne have higher enrolments, so realistically this is one big metro by-election, but the nuances in this election and the way preferences are playing out, is of interest.
Preston.
That seat is in the northern part of the Fed Division of Cooper (formally Batman)
Cooper is another interesting seat to watch at the next Fed election.
Thanks for post. It’s a close 2PP split between Lab & Grn, in the area “north of Bell St”.