US presidential election minus 11 weeks

Polling from the US settles into an equilibrium suggesting an impossibly close race.

After the extraordinarly upheavals of last month, forecasts and polling aggregates suggest the US presidential election campaign has been in a holding pattern for over a fortnight, in which Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump on the national popular vote by an amount that makes it anyone’s guess as to who should be favoured for the Electoral College. Nate Silver’s model has Harris’s poll lead at 47.0% to 44.5% (Robert F. Kennedy, who is reportedly on the cusp of dropping out and endorsing Trump, is now down to 4.2%), converting to a 53.7% chance of a Harris victory compared with 45.9% for Trump (the balance being “no majority”). At state level, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada are essentially rated dead heats, which would make Pennsylvania the decider. The Economist’s forecast is slightly narrower on win probability, at 51% for Harris and 48% for Trump, but is in all respects remarkably similar to Silver’s. Adrian Beaumont has more at The Conversation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

561 comments on “US presidential election minus 11 weeks”

Comments Page 9 of 12
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  1. Harris’s honeymoon may be best illustrated that the last 6 polls showing on 538 site on her favourability (all different pollsters) show her with net favourability ranging from 0% to +6%. That’s quite a turnaround from when she was the VP only.

    Kaplan show her 52-48% on LV or 50-50% on RV. It’s good for Harris that it’s that way round, but that seems an implausibly large difference when it’s largely the same pool of voters just shrunk a bit?

  2. Boerwar @ #390 Tuesday, August 27th, 2024 – 6:11 pm

    LR
    Yeah, but there is an overlap between Hannibal Lecter, brain worms and cutting a whale’s head off with a chainsaw.

    I can see that. And it’s something with which to goad Vance. He might just try to “prove himself”. (I forget which of them did the thing with the bear cub.)

  3. Wonder how many polls are picking this up?

    Among 18–29-Year-Olds In Swing States – Presidential Polling:

    Harris (D): 54%
    Trump (R): 22%
    Kennedy (I): 4%

    Voters of Tomorrow / Aug 20, 2024 / n=1601

    (D-Leaning)

  4. “Wonder how many polls are picking this up?”

    It is possible they are not all picking this up sufficiently, though they do ask for likelihood to vote etc. so should tell when levels of participation amongst certain groups goes up and therefore automatically adjust the weighting (i.e. increase the no. of said sub-group included in their polling sample).

    Back in 2017 in the UK, only Survation out of all the pollsters picked up the highly unusual increase in turnout amongst the young who were seriously enthused by Corbyn’s ultra-socialist manifesto and his personality. They correctly predicted Labour on 40% and a hung parliament whilst others were still showing quite large majority and 10% lead for Theresa May’s Conservatives.

    Not to blow my own trumpet, but I could see it happening being a bit of a nerd looking at the methodology each pollster was using, tbh it worried me sick! The media narrative never anywhere near caught up till it happened and the public got a big shock that May didn’t win a big majority. I’m sure there were some private blushes by those who voted for Corbyn to keep May’s majority down and then saw how very close we came to PM Corbyn.

  9. ‘BTSays says:
    Tuesday, August 27, 2024 at 6:17 pm

    There’s more chance of snow in Arizona today than Trump changing his VP pick for this year’s election.’
    ——————————
    Meh. Your assumptions are that Trump is not suffering from dementia and that he is not a malignant narcissist. These are false assumptions.

    Trump flips in and out of delusional states quite often these days.

    It is entirely possible that he will enter a delusional state, fire Vance and hire Kennedy.

  10. Late Riser @ #408 Tuesday, August 27th, 2024 – 7:39 pm

    Confessions @ #407 Tuesday, August 27th, 2024 – 7:04 pm

    Wait until they realise President Harris has wide ranging presidential immunity.

    Could Biden step down in November and let Harris become POTUS? I very much doubt Biden would, but it’s a delicious thought with which to taunt the MAGA types, using rules they favour.

    I was thinking more about after the election if Harris wins. Not Biden stepping down.

  11. Harris fundraising blows past $500 million—and inspires major action

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/26/2265839/-Harris-fundraising-blows-past-500-million-and-inspires-major-action?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web

    “The Harris-Walz campaign has raised an astounding amount of money in a short period of time and has inspired hundreds of thousands of people to sign up as volunteers.
    Kamala Harris’ campaign announced Sunday that it had racked up $540 million in donations over its first month—an amazing number. But the $82 million that came in during last week’s Democratic National Convention shows that the campaign is maintaining the momentum and excitement that greeted the vice president’s late entry into the race after President Joe Biden stepped aside on July 21.

    Just as exciting is the number of regular people who have signed on to become personally involved in seeing Harris elected the next president of the United States. Over 400,000 people have signed on as volunteers, according to the Harris-Walz campaign. During the week of the DNC alone, volunteers signed up for 200,000 shifts of campaign work. Based on an estimate from Independent Sector, those hours of unpaid work represent the equivalent of another $53 million coming in over that one week.

    But really, those unpaid workers are priceless. Because all the television ads and social media posts in the world can’t match the value of genuine Harris supporters bringing their personal message to potential voters and delivering it one-on-one.

    That wealth of volunteers could be on display this week as Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, begin a bus tour around south Georgia. The campaign has already hired 174 staffers in 24 campaign offices across the state, but 35,000 volunteers will be bolstering that paid staff.

    The combination of dollars and volunteers is enabling the campaign to conduct what it calls “the largest in-state operation of any Democratic presidential campaign cycle ever in Georgia.” With ABC’s 538 polling average placing Trump ahead in Georgia by just 0.7% this week, those volunteers could be critical to the outcome in the Peach State.”

  13. Late Riser @ #412 Tuesday, August 27th, 2024 – 8:08 pm

    Confessions, yes, that too. So many reasons the SCOTUS ruling is badly flawed.

    What’s the bet that if Democrats do retain the WH there’s a flurry of commentary from the right about judicial over-reach on the presidential immunity thing.

    These people are happy to stay schtum while Trump is still a chance to regain power, but I’d bet London to a brick that changes the minute we see President Harris.

  14. Continuing from 8:08 pm

    The Harris campaign says that one-third of donations received last week, while the Democratic National Convention was happening, came from first-time donors. That’s another amazing number, as it shows that Harris and Walz aren’t even close to tapping out the potential for their campaign. Of those first-time donors, about one-fifth of them were young voters making their first foray into political donations.

    Two-thirds of the first-time donations came from women. If Trump thinks that abortion is no longer an issue or, even more ridiculously, that “everybody” wanted Roe v. Wade “terminated,” he’s very wrong.

  15. ‘BTSays says:
    Tuesday, August 27, 2024 at 6:34 pm

    Harris’s honeymoon may be best illustrated that the last 6 polls showing on 538 site on her favourability (all different pollsters) show her with net favourability ranging from 0% to +6%. That’s quite a turnaround from when she was the VP only.

    Kaplan show her 52-48% on LV or 50-50% on RV. It’s good for Harris that it’s that way round, but that seems an implausibly large difference when it’s largely the same pool of voters just shrunk a bit?’
    ———————
    The use of ‘honeymoon’ might be a psephological trap. It has a couple of premises that may be false. The national polling seems still be incrementally increasing in Harris’ favour.

  17. We keep saying Trump and his megaphone Fox hit rock bottom. Looks like we are wrong(Video)

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/26/2265927/-Fox-News-host-creeps-out-colleagues-with-sexist-jab-at-Harris?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_4&pm_medium=web

    “Fox News’ Jesse Watters has proved once again that there is wiggle room at the bottom. During primetime show “The Five,” Watters’ grotesque misogyny toward Vice President Kamala Harris prompted his fellow right-wing panelists Jeanine Pirro and Dana Perino to object.

    “We don’t know who she is. We don’t know what she believes, Watters said.” She’s going to get paralyzed in the Situation Room while the generals have their way with her.”

    “Jesse Watters!” Perino admonished.

    “Oh, Jesse. I don’t like that,” Pirro said.

    “Figuratively, again.” Watters responded.

    “Take it back,” Pirro insisted.

    Watters made a half-hearted attempt to walk it back.

    “Have their way with her. Control her. Not in a sexual way.” Watters insisted, while smirking at the camera.”

  19. “The national polling seems still be incrementally increasing in Harris’ favour.”

    It stopped doing that nearly 3 weeks ago. It’s been steady since then.

  21. Trump Desecrates Arlington National Cemetery in Prohibited Photo-Op

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/26/2265870/-Trump-Desecrates-Arlington-National-Cemetery-in-Prohibited-Photo-Op?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    ”

    Arlington National Cemetery has rules for visitors. Among them is this rule:

    (2.) Partisan activities are inappropriate in Arlington National Cemetery, due to its role as a shrine to all the honored dead of the Armed Forces of the United States and out of respect for the men and women buried there and for their families. Services or any activities inside the Cemetery connected therewith shall not be partisan in nature. A service is partisan and therefore inappropriate if it includes commentary support of, or in opposition to, or attempts to influence any current policy of the Armed Forces, the Government of the United States or any state of the United States; if it endorses the cause of a political party or if it has a primary purpose to gain publicity or engender support for any cause. If a service is closely related, both time and location, to partisan activities or demonstrations being conducted outside the Cemetery, it will be determined partisan and therefore inappropriate. If a service is determined to be partisan by the Executive Director, permission to conduct memorial services or ceremonies at the Cemetery will be denied.

    “If it endorses the cause of a political party.” CHECK

    “if it has a primary purpose to gain publicity” CHECK

  23. @ Boerwar
    Tuesday, August 27, 2024 at 8:47 pm

    I’m with you. Although RCP hasn’t moved many of the polling averages are still moving Harris’ way. Five of these in the +3.4 – +4.1 range.

    21.8.24 – 27.8.24
    538 – Harris +2.8 +3.4
    270towin – Harris +1.5 +1.8
    The Economist – Harris +3.2 +3.4
    Raceto theWH – Harris +2.6 +3.7
    RealClearPolling – Harris +1.5 +1.5
    Silver Bulletin – Harris +2.5 +4.1
    The Hill – Harris +3.0 +4.1

    RCP really is the outlier. For some reason very heavy in Rasmussen but don’t include other, more credentialed polls at all.

  26. Mavis

    I don’t think anyone seriously thinks that Trump is leading in the polls nationally at the current time – unless himself but given how closely he watches them I even doubt that.

    But as Yabba quotes above, the swing states are everything.

  28. Mavis

    Mavissays:
    Tuesday, August 27, 2024 at 9:46 pm
    Trump’s only leading in one poll – Rasmussen:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gtb8Li1BmCg&t=197s
    ”

    Stephanie Grisham
    @OMGrisham
    Rasmussen was the only poll he asked about/we told him about because it was always in his favor. There could have been 35 polls saying he was losing & all he cared about was Rasmussen. We used it as a way to keep him happy. #TheEmperorHasNoClothes
    ”
    Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social
    @TrumpDailyPosts
    ·
    Aug 24
    FIVE POINTS UP OVER KAMALA IN THE JUST RELEASED RASMUSSEN POLL. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

    Donald Trump Truth Social 03:42 PM EST
    ”

    For uninitiated:
    Stephanie Grisham was once Trump Press Secretary.

  30. BTSays:

    Tuesday, August 27, 2024 at 10:10 pm

    [‘But as Yabba quotes above, the swing states are everything.’]

    No doubting that. One would be excused for thinking though that
    if the trend in national polling continues to favour Harris, it will soon be reflected in the swing states in varying degrees.
    ______________________________________

    Ven:

    Tuesday, August 27, 2024 at 10:35 pm

    I’ve read that Rasmussen has a 1.5-point bias in favour of the
    GOP. Accordingly, if that’s true, little wonder that Trump swears by their polls. I think the emperor is butt naked. Good night.

  31. BTsays

    “ But as Yabba quotes above, the swing states are everything.’”

    Almost everything, but not quite. Congress and Senate still matter too. Whether Trump or Harris end up POTUS, if they control neither Congress nor the Senate they won’t be able to do much.

    The more Harris is ahead overall, the more Congress Districts the Democrats pick up, the sooner they take back the House, and the more their odds of holding the Senate improve.

  36. Election officials declined Tuesday to let Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drop his presidential bid in Wisconsin and placed his name on the state’s ballot.

    Kennedy suspended his campaign Friday and endorsed former president Donald Trump. He asked Wisconsin election officials to disregard campaign paperwork he had filed earlier and keep his name off the ballot.

    Members of the Wisconsin Elections Commission on Tuesday said they could not honor his request because state law requires candidates’ names to appear on the ballot once they have filed their paperwork unless they die. The commission voted 5-1 to place Kennedy’s name on the ballot, with two Republican commissioners joining all three Democratic commissioners.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/08/27/2024-election-campaign-updates-harris-trump/#link-PQIN4QO3OVGONP5I3GJ56R2N5U

    RFKJ will be on ballots in Michigan, Nevada and Nth Carolina as well.

  37. Kyle Cheney@kyledcheney
    ·
    25m
    BREAKING: A grand jury has returned a superseding indictment against Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. retaining the same four core charges against him for trying to subvert the election.

  39. A Reuters/IPSOS issues poll has positive trend towards Harris..

    WASHINGTON, Aug 27 (Reuters) – Donald Trump’s advantage over Kamala Harris on the economy and crime is eroding among U.S. voters, a sign the Democratic vice president’s campaign is gathering momentum ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.

    The three-day poll, conducted Aug. 23-25, showed Republican former President Trump’s approach to the economy and employment was preferred by 43% of registered voters compared to 40% who preferred Harris’s approach. The 3 percentage point difference was too small to be significant given the poll’s 4 percentage point margin of error. A prior Reuters/Ipsos poll in late July showed Trump with an 11-point advantage on the economy.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-edge-over-harris-economy-crime-slips-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-08-27/

  40. Further details on the indictment seems to have been re-filed due to the SCOTUS presidential immunity ruling.

    The indictment is tailored to the Supreme Court’s criticism of Smith’s approach, and their conclusion that a president or former president cannot be charged for official acts. The court also ruled that evidence of official acts for the most part cannot be used against a former president in a criminal trial.

    As a result, the indictment tries to underscore more clearly that Trump and his co-conspirators allegedly acted in their unofficial capacities.

    “These co-conspirators included the following individuals, none of whom were government officials during the conspiracies and all of whom were acting in a private capacity,” the new language in the superseding indictment says.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/08/27/trump-dc-indictment-new-charges-jan-6/

  41. Ven @ #435 Wednesday, August 28th, 2024 – 3:08 am

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/27/2265998/-Trump-seems-to-be-over-this-whole-campaigning-thing?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_3&pm_medium=web

    Thanks Ven. The gist of the article is what Harris said (paraphrasing), that he’s an unserious man, with serious consequences, if we let it happen. The sentiment is the same as, “Fool me twice? Shame on me.”, but without going the “deplorable” route, and blaming the voters. Obama said it too, “We’ve seen this movie before. The sequel is nearly always worse.”

  43. Thanks Confessions, for the link to CBS News. It got me thinking about psephology, again. The article describes the methodology.

    “registered voters who respond to our surveys.” I imagine a Venn diagram with three circles in it. One encompasses all Registered Voters. Another smaller circle is labelled Actual Voters and sits wholly within the first. The third, and smallest, is labelled survey participants and drifts somewhere within the largest circle. The degree to which it overlaps the second is uncertain.

    The article goes on to say, “Our model combines this survey data with voter files and recent election results to anchor estimates.” They’re trying to guess where the small circle hangs out, “to anchor” it.

    The problem is that this flawed methodology is all we’ve got.

  44. [‘Washington

    CNN

    Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will sit with CNN for their first joint interview on Thursday as Democrats work to broaden their base’s excitement from last week’s Democratic National Convention.

    The interview, conducted by CNN’s chief political correspondent and anchor Dana Bash, will air at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday. It occurs as the candidates embark on a bus tour through the battleground state of Georgia and marks the first time Harris has sat with a journalist for an in-depth, on-the-record conversation since President Joe Biden dropped his bid for a second term and endorsed her on July 21.

    The 37 days since her candidacy began have generated a swell of enthusiasm and momentum for Harris, including at last week’s convention in Chicago. But her lack of a formal news conference or interview has generated criticism from her Republican rivals. Thursday’s interview fulfils a vow she made earlier in August to schedule a sit-down before the end of the month.’]

  45. This is an extreme example of weird polling…

    Maryland Presidential Polling:

    Harris (D): 64%
    Trump (R): 32%

    Fabrizio / Impact Research / Aug 20, 2024 / n=600

    Maryland Senate Polling:

    Alsobrooks (D): 46%
    Hogan (R): 46%

    Fabrizio / Impact Research / Aug 20, 2024 / n=600

    There is no way the Dem Senate candidate is even, or eventually loses, if the top of the ticket is +32 points.

  46. And Florida could be ripe for the picking? With irregular or new voters coming out for these referenda

    Florida – Abortion Rights Measure Support:

    Support: 61%
    Oppose: 25%

    Public Policy Polling / Aug 22, 2024 / n=837

    Florida – Marijuana Legalization Measure Support:

    Support: 57%
    Oppose: 34%

    Public Policy Polling / Aug 22, 2024 / n=837

  47. I prefer the Nate Silver approach, because his only motivation is to reflect actuality as well as he possibly can, given his deep knowledge of statistical theory and practice. The problem with 538, now that it is owned by a mainstream media player (ABC News), is that it may be herded into a tendency to imply a horse race, to boost the somewhat diminishing prospects of its owners. 538 is now including, and somehow weighting, on little or no history, a number of previously unknown, or sporadic, pollsters. Magically, they tend to favour Trump, by just a little bit, or, in some cases, a lot.

  49. The “thing” about trauma is that it can never be forgotten, and triggers that bring back a flood of memories are real and painful. Among other services, the Arlington Cemetery comforts trauma survivors. It is peaceful, quiet, contemplative, inspiring for some. T**** and his like don’t understand this and won’t understand the response.

    I watched a man at Coles this morning. I noticed him because he had been reaching up for a packet of breakfast cereal on a high shelf, but instead of the packet he gripped his face, distorted, eyes tight shut, grimacing. He held that pose for a long minute before wiping his face and walking off. Without the cereal. That’s what trauma does. (And I felt ashamed.)

  50. NO, It’s *not* a ‘Dead Heat:’
    ————————————
    As far as predictions based on polls are concerned, yeah, it is a dead heat. Or neck and neck. Or – too close to say who is ahead. If PA is 50-50, how else do you analyse it? You can argue that Harris has momentum with energy and funding and more EC pathways – but that is subject to some subjectivity.

    But who am I to disagree with a unreviewed opinion piece by a person called “by sp2” on an uber partisan website?

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