US presidential election minus 11 weeks

Polling from the US settles into an equilibrium suggesting an impossibly close race.

After the extraordinarly upheavals of last month, forecasts and polling aggregates suggest the US presidential election campaign has been in a holding pattern for over a fortnight, in which Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump on the national popular vote by an amount that makes it anyone’s guess as to who should be favoured for the Electoral College. Nate Silver’s model has Harris’s poll lead at 47.0% to 44.5% (Robert F. Kennedy, who is reportedly on the cusp of dropping out and endorsing Trump, is now down to 4.2%), converting to a 53.7% chance of a Harris victory compared with 45.9% for Trump (the balance being “no majority”). At state level, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada are essentially rated dead heats, which would make Pennsylvania the decider. The Economist’s forecast is slightly narrower on win probability, at 51% for Harris and 48% for Trump, but is in all respects remarkably similar to Silver’s. Adrian Beaumont has more at The Conversation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

561 comments on “US presidential election minus 11 weeks”

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  3. TK

    In hindsight despite narratives polling accuracy has been impressive, especially aggregators like Silvers model.
    Close calls falling mostly on the correct side when it’s a few hundred votes out of millions.

    Following 538 I did not see a red wave in 2022

  6. Cant say tonight’s speeches have been too great. Maybe deliberately so Kamala looks good. But it’s a chore to get through these.

  7. If you look at William’s archives for polls just prior to the election in 2020 Biden had a bigger lead (in most polls) over Trump than Harris currently has over Trump. Some polls were suggesting that North Carolina, Florida and Texas would turn blue which of course never happened. The eventual result was a very narrow victory to Biden. This would indicate that Harris’ current polling will have to improve if she is to win.

  10. Yes, on current numbers in the polls, Trump would probably still win comfortably. It is only the popular vote that is competitive.

    And RFK Jr dropping out and endorsing Trump will only tip the scales back to Trump even on the popular vote.

    Kamala Harris has her first job today: to not ruin her campaign flopping her speech. The world depends on it. Biden failed and the world is lucky to get another chance.

  11. Enjaybee
    Some quality pollsters got it very wrong. Like, waaaaay beyond Moe. I remember that sinking feeling of “oh no, not again”.

    538 still have all polling for 2020 up on their website. Just Google “538 2020 polls”. Add the state name to your search to see 2020 stare polls.

  15. Loving this speech . Wearing my Harris / Walz 24 tee today to Bunnings , tomorrow at a Labor party coffee get together,and really looking forward to wearing it on Sunday at Mass. Maybe the good guys are going to win.

  16. Great speech by Harris. Positive but honest. Comprehensive and many good points.

    Really courageous to link a Gaza ceasefire to explicit support for Palestinian self-determination. I think this is a hug step forward for US engagement with nations in the Mid-east and “global south”.

  17. That was a fantastic speech! Her going after Trump cozying up to dictators was so good. I wish Victoria was still commenting.

  19. Hahaha Respect comes on now.

    Democrats are having such fun at their convention. Compare and contrast with the angry divorced dad energy of the RNC

  22. Atticus Finch (of Georgia)@Atticus59914029
    ·
    18m
    That – especially the ending – was one of the greatest political speeches I’ve ever heard in my life.

    Unabashedly pro American. Unabashedly pro democracy. Unabashedly optimistic.

  24. Kamala Harris was really, really good, that speech will help her a lot, and yes, Trump is currently having a major meltdown on Truth Social.

  25. Good speech by Harris.

    It got better as she went on. Compared to Clinton’s 2016 and Biden’s 2020 speeches I think this was better. Certainly better than the rambling and boring Trump 2024 RNC speech.

  26. The online left seems pretty disappointed in Harris’ speech. I’m overall still optimistic, but who knows what curveballs could come from war in the middle east in the coming weeks/months

  27. Bonza, what are the left saying (I dont tend to reside in real time online chat environments other than this one)? And how left are they? Was never expecting her to declare war on Israel . Are they that left or am I being silly?

    I thought it was a solid speech, with some sections that were quite good, some a bit flat she seemed nervous at the start but got stronger as she went.

    A positive and balanced review of the speech.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Tqb_f36tkQ

  28. IMO the online left won’t decide this election, middle America will. Harris has to walk both sides, Trump just one. Obvious who has the harder task from here on in.

  29. Just eleven more weeks of trying to hide that Trump is completely and utterly demented.

    The malignant weirdo got stuck into Harris because she met with Putin and tried to stop him from invading Ukraine and then three days later Putin invaded Ukraine.

    Harris has never met Putin.

  31. Ive been keeping up with the commentary on PB but not inclined to comment. Mainly due to the whole CFMEU imbroglio. Did not want to get caught up in the commentary. The administrator has now been appointed, so I will venture back in. Lol!

    The DNC is now done and dusted.

    Went very well. No surprise. People continue to underestimate the most consequential President in modern times.

    In any event, the Dems will win big but it will still be a shit show. The republicans are going to play games again, like they did with stop the steal in 2020. Eventually Kamala Harris and the Dems will prevail.

    I’m also getting confident that Florida may turn blue. Now that would definitely throw a cat amongst the pigeons.

  37. If Trump – who is 90° off course – continues his rapid rate of descent sans forward momentum, he can always process his brainwashed basement dwellers to boycott the election and therefore certify the election result as a fraud.
    I wouldn’t put it past the old shyster, who’s sails are void of wind.

  42. “If Trump stroked out it would be Divine providence.”

    But oh my doG …the conspiracy theories!!! 🙂

    Although, the expectation that Trumps boy JD would step up and take over?? 🙂 🙂

    Save the White House couch meme’s. 🙂

  43. Actually, does anyone know of any precedents or proceedures for what happens if a properly nominated presidential candidate dies close to an election??

    Maybe they could have a Thunderdome / Cage Fight between JD and MTG ??? I would even pay $ to the Repug campaign to see that.

  44. Kamala Harris gets personal—and presidential—in powerful acceptance speech (video)

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/22/2265119/-Kamala-Harris-gets-personal-and-presidential-in-powerful-acceptance-speech?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web

    I know why “online left” is disappointed with Kamala Harris speech. It was more Reaganistic than Obama flourish. It had a woman’s touch when talking about women.

    I am amazed how much middle ground Republicans ceded to Democrats since Trump became Republican leader.

  47. Been There, are you around?

    I am replying to your post instantly from last night wanting to know where you can get $2.10 for Harris to win the election.

    You’re not very good at shopping around, are you? You’re betting with one of the stingiest organisations in the marketplace!

    Without wanting to promote any betting company, you could’ve got $2.10 last night if you moved – with Betfair! You can still get set to win 5 grand at 2.02 as I type this…heartening to know that Kamala has attracted the demand at $2.10.

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