US presidential election minus 11 weeks

Polling from the US settles into an equilibrium suggesting an impossibly close race.

After the extraordinarly upheavals of last month, forecasts and polling aggregates suggest the US presidential election campaign has been in a holding pattern for over a fortnight, in which Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump on the national popular vote by an amount that makes it anyone’s guess as to who should be favoured for the Electoral College. Nate Silver’s model has Harris’s poll lead at 47.0% to 44.5% (Robert F. Kennedy, who is reportedly on the cusp of dropping out and endorsing Trump, is now down to 4.2%), converting to a 53.7% chance of a Harris victory compared with 45.9% for Trump (the balance being “no majority”). At state level, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada are essentially rated dead heats, which would make Pennsylvania the decider. The Economist’s forecast is slightly narrower on win probability, at 51% for Harris and 48% for Trump, but is in all respects remarkably similar to Silver’s. Adrian Beaumont has more at The Conversation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

561 comments on “US presidential election minus 11 weeks”

Comments Page 10 of 12
1 … 9 10 11 12

  1. TK Take your Pick.
    538

    Silver

    Silver has a long history of comparative success. 538, (which was, of course, invented by Nate Silver) has had a bumpy ride, via NYT and Disney to ABC News. It has a very short history under ABC ownership, with highly changeable staff.

  3. Yabba, if you take Silver you have Harris up by 1.9pts. Way to close to make any predictive calls. Add in the history of polling bias to the Democrats when Trump is on the ballot. 538 had Biden up by 4pts in PA, he won by 1. They had Clinton up by 3.7 and Trump won by 0.7.

    Everyone wants to diss RCP – but their averages were closer in both those cases than anyone else. They were spot on in 2020. And they have Trump up by 0.2 today.

    Perhaps everyone needs a cold shower of over confident PB posts leading up to the 2016 and 2020 elections to remember how hard it is for pollsters to capture Trump voters in a voluntary voting system.

    My subjective feel is evens/Harris just ahead; based on polls plus enthusiasm, Dobbs, donations, Trump appearing less energetic….. and on the counter – Harris somewhat still untested in debates and serious interviews and pressers. There is good reason for optimism. No reason for confidence.

  4. Apparently RFK has ‘failed’ to have his name removed from the ballot in Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and possibly also North Carolina, which could help Trump in Nevada and Harris in North Carolina, if the result is as close as currently predicted.

  5. Jeepers this guy is demented. Cutting up a selling the suit he wore at the Biden debate.

    “People are calling it the knock-out suit,” Trump said in the video, adding: “I don’t know about that but that’s what they’re calling it.” He continued: “We’ll cut up the knock-out suit, and you’re going to get a piece of it and we’ll be randomly autographing five of them, a true collector’s item, this is something to give your family, your kids, your grandchildren.”

    LOL I know what my family & kids would say if I gave them this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/27/trump-debate-suit-fundraising

  7. In real estate the mantra is Location, Location, Location. Does that apply to the guy’s suit as well? Is one part worth more (or less…) than another. Has it been dry cleaned? Would that make it worth more, or less? How is provenance managed? (One suit or 100, we’d never know.)

    But jokes aside:
    – It will get him some income.
    – It’s already getting him talked about.
    – It will further invest people in his brand. (The cards/suit will be worth more if he wins.)

    Smart move, if you can stomach it.

  10. TK,

    Do you have a longer baseline for that graph? I was wondering just this morning when the guy would be eligible to sell his shares in the thing? And when he does sell, how might insider trading laws try to restrict him? (Because nothing he does is subtle, he’ll likely sell all of them at once.)

  12. LR, true, the graph does weird things when options and such kick in and trump makes a killing in some dodgy way or another. Another such deadline comes into play soon. The dealmakers would have been busy with this one.

    There was also a surge after the shooting.

    Makes Gamestop look tame.

  13. Off topic but it is Canada so probably the closest thread.

    This is fairly incredible:

    “The past year and a half has been unusually eventful in British Columbia politics: multiple floor crossings in the legislature, a major party rebrand, and dramatic movement in public opinion polls. In fact, polling from multiple sources confirms that, with only weeks to go before the fall campaign for the provincial election kicks off, BC politics may be undergoing a massive generational realignment.

    What a difference a year made in British Columbia
    In fourteen months, the once-marginal B.C. Conservatives gained 34 points while BC United crumbled, according to polling from Research Co.

    The chart below depicts two BC polls from the Vancouver-based polling firm Research Co., fielded fourteen months apart. On top, the May 2023 poll was fielded a few weeks after the British Columbia Liberal Party officially changed its name to BC United, in part to distance itself from perceived federal Liberal connections and to rejuvenate its image before the 2024 election. Across the province, David Eby’s New Democratic Party led the field (as it had done in every poll since the NDP’s re-election in 2020) with 46 percent of province-wide support, thirteen points ahead of the newly rebranded BC United. The Greens took third place with 16 percent.

    As for the then fringe Conservative Party of British Columbia, they sat dead last with a measly 4 percent of support, a result marginally better than the 1.9 percent they had won in the 2020 general election. Since becoming leader of the Conservatives, John Rustad (MLA for Nechako Lakes, who crossed the floor to the Conservatives after being kicked out of the BC Liberal caucus) had not yet managed to put his party on the map.

    Fourteen months later, in a poll released in late July, Research Co. measured a statistical tie between the incumbent NDP (41 percent) and the surging Conservatives (38 percent), with the Greens in a tough spot with only 10 percent of support.

    May 2023
    NDP 46%
    BCU 33%
    BCG 16%
    BCC 4%

    July 2024
    NDP41%
    BCU 9%
    BCG 10%
    BCC 38%

    Polling from Research Co. Top: May 1-3, 2023, total sample of n=800 adults. Bottom: July 23-25, 2024, total sample of n=801 adults.

    The BC general election this October could potentially reshape provincial politics on the West Coast for decades to come. An NDP government in its seventh year in power dragged by unpopular policies (from drug decriminalization to the carbon tax), a reorganized and correctly branded right-of-centre party boosted by its dominant federal cousin, and a crumbling party with a new name and colours getting squeezed in between—the textbook electoral casualty whenever political polarization sharpens its blades.”

    To put further in context just how fringe they’ve been in provincial politics (the Conservatives do win seats in BC at federal elections), BC Conservatives got 1.9% of the vote at the last election and 0.7% at the one 4 years earlier. Most polls show NDP with leads of between 3-8% but the most recent poll, from Mainstreet Research, shows a role reversal with BCC leading NDP 39-36%.

    If there hadn’t been floor crossing they would currently have 0 MPs in the province. Their leader John Rustad was the first one to cross from BC United/Liberal last year.

    Obviously the election hasn’t happened yet (about 5 weeks’ time) but talk about historical.

  15. I believe the Trump DJT stock comes out of escrow next month – he has 60% or thereabouts, worth about $2 billion at the current price.

    He does have to lodge weeks in advance his intention to sell – which should cause the plunge to sub $1. That won’t stop Trump dumping, and his long pocketed backers like the Saudis and Elon propping up to some extent

  17. From the NYT

    If both candidates win all of the states in their solid, likely and lean categories, the race would come down to the seven tossup states in yellow. Ms. Harris would need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win. Mr. Trump would need 51.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/presidential-election-swing-states.html?unlocked_article_code=1.GU4.Iw5A.KJFMQdp4DjpK&smid=url-share

    ECVs: Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10). TOTAL (93)

  18. Omar

    “This thread is for discussion of the US presidential election BTSays, post your drama and histrionics in the main open thread.”

    Ha ha I love the irony. It’s not me that posts drama and histrionics! (tbf it’s not you either) You could indulge my occasional (if unappreciated) attempt at humour, which is different.

  19. I’m optimistic of a Harris win, but its certainly not drape measuring time. And given how the 2016 and 2020 elections went, I’m sure the Harris campaign won’t be complacent.

  21. In 2016 Gabbard and RFKJ endorsed a socialist for president (Bernie Sanders).

    In 2024 Gabbard and RFKJ have endorsed a fascist for president (Donald Trump).

    Proof that the horseshoe theory is alive and well.

  22. ”
    frednksays:
    Wednesday, August 28, 2024 at 5:25 pm
    Democratic pep talk
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJZ-A1IQM_8

    It’s not about winning this election is about mortally wounding MEGA
    ”

    frednk
    It is about winning because only then you can wound MAGA.
    It is about winning. Otherwise, US will become dictatorship as per Trump and Project 2025
    It is about winning. Otherwise women will lose a lot of rights especially reproductive rights
    It is about winning. Otherwise say good bye to NATO and Ukraine
    It is about winning. Otherwise say good bye to clumate change goals

  23. ”
    Confessionssays:
    Wednesday, August 28, 2024 at 6:01 pm
    In 2016 Gabbard and RFKJ endorsed a socialist for president (Bernie Sanders).

    In 2024 Gabbard and RFKJ have endorsed a fascist for president (Donald Trump).

    Proof that the horseshoe theory is alive and well.
    ”

    Lordbain will dఇసగ్రీ with that but that is another story

  24. Trump spent today (yesterday) spruiking digital collectors cards featuring him, for $99 each or buy 15 and you get an actual physical card with a piece of the suit he was wearing when he was shot attached to it. A collector’s item for the grandkids, he said.

    Spend even more and you get more digital cards, a dinner at one of his non Mar a Lago resorts with him, his special collectors shoes and more of the suit on another physical card.

    Aside from the fact that the grifter just keeps on grifting, how low do you have to be that you’re a former president reduced to cutting up items of clothing to sell to people to raise cash? It’s very embarrassing.

  25. Sorry Ven. A “mortal” wound is a fatal one. What (I think) frednk was driving at is that for all the reasons you listed (and more I expect) merely winning isn’t enough. It would be nice if MAGA ended. I’m just not sure that winning big will do that. (Ideas are resilient.)

    Nevertheless, merely winning is an important goal in its own right. Whereas winning big allows big things to be done and is important for that reason. And that is why the Democratic Party must not take its eyes off the prize, or rest until November 6. It may well be the opportunity of a generation. (If they can make it happen.)

  26. Harris spent today (yesterday) launching a new ad to continue the momentum from the DNC, and announced her and Walz were headed to Georgia to campaign. She also spent today (yesterday) announcing her first sit down interview since she accepted the party leadership.


  31. Late Riser says:
    Wednesday, August 28, 2024 at 6:51 pm

    Sorry Ven. A “mortal” wound is a fatal one. What (I think) frednk was driving at is that for all the reasons you listed (and more I expect) merely winning isn’t enough. It would be nice if MAGA ended. I’m just not sure that winning big will do that. (Ideas are resilient.)

    Exactly. The aim is not to win, the aim is to win big.

  34. The interview is definitely an event that has the potential to move the polls one way or another.

    I’d say it’s something Harris has to do, but also that the stakes are high and that it’s easier to fail than to succeed when you have opponents waiting to twist your every word (and yes, the same would apply the other way round of course).

    I think for Harris the stakes are particularly high, rather of her own making, because she’s put off and put off doing interviews or taking questions to the point that that itself has become a theme – so people will now be rather focused on this event and over-thinking what she says rather than casually listening like if she’d been doing media stuff from the start.

    She may exude supreme control and hit it out the park, of course, making a mockery of any idea that she’s been scared of the scrutiny. Then her stock rises further, and the polls further.

  35. I think for Harris the stakes are particularly high, rather of her own making, because she’s put off and put off doing interviews or taking questions to the point that that itself has become a theme

    Nah, it’s only a theme among Washington media and the Trump organisation (read: Fox News).

    Harris/Walz will do a tonne of local media to support their events. This is normal in election campaigns, campaigning in swing states, despite the protestations of the Washington media.

  36. Today’s Republican party:

    Sarah Longwell@SarahLongwell25
    ·
    9h
    Someone sent me a radio rant by @EWErickson about my disagreement with some at the Dispatch in which he said: “Kamala Harris has done nothing but climb the ladder of power since the moment she got up off her knees in front of Willie Brown to put it bluntly to you.” Swell guy.

    David Frum@davidfrum
    ·
    3h
    Overlaps with Fox News types yucking it up over a fantasy of the joint chiefs of staff gang-raping a future President Harris.

    The latter refers to a Fox News cuck who seemed to revel in his statement about a future president Harris in a room with joint chiefs of staff.

    These people are revolting, and completely unserious.

  38. With over 2m personnel in the US armed services & some 16m
    veterans, that’s a sizeable cohort for Trump to get offside, not to
    mention their families.

  40. Remember meherbaba saying about the risk of having Walz instead of Shapiro as VP candidate.
    Here is a dog story related Walz, which MAGAverse wen wild before it unravellwd for them.
    One thing is for sure. RWNJs arw digging ferociously to find dirt on Walz.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/27/2266165/-MAGAverse-has-gone-to-the-dogs-with-attack-on-Walz-and-his-black-lab-Scout-that-totally-backfired?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “Missouri GOP Sen. Eric Schmitt reposted Grage’s X post with the caption: “Why would Tim Walz do this? It’s Creepy and Weird.”

    Former Fox News host Kimberly Guilfoyle, Donald Trump Jr.’s fiance, wrote on X : “Wait so Walz is even lying about his dog? Ruff stuff,”

  41. In a critical year, we can’t sleep on the GOP’s state-level chaos
    In 2024 alone, Michigan, Florida, Arizona, Colarado and the national Republican Party all lost their leadership under embarrassing, if not terrible, circumstances.

    https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/republican-party-chaos-swing-state-election-rcna168488

    “Take what happened this past weekend in Michigan. On Saturday, former Michigan Republican Party chair Kristina Karamo was escorted out of the state GOP convention by police.

    As The Detroit News reports:

    [Karamo] showed up on the convention floor at about 11 a.m., but the party said she wasn’t a registered delegate from her home county of Oakland. She was surrounded by her supporters with security officials attempting to talk to her…Eventually, two police officers with badges walked Karamo off the floor — amid shoving between a security guard and one of the people with Karamo.”

  42. Hundreds of former Bush, McCain and Romney staffers back Harris

    The more Donald Trump attacks Kamala Harris as some kind of radical, the more mainstream Republicans throw their support behind the Democratic nominee.

    https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/hundreds-former-bush-mccain-romney-staffers-back-harris-rcna168430

    “More than 200 Republicans who previously worked for either former President George W. Bush, the late Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., or Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president in an open letter Monday obtained exclusively by USA TODAY.

    The letter from alums of the three Republican presidential nominees prior to former President Donald Trump comes on the heels of a Democratic National Convention last week in Chicago that showcased Republican detractors of the GOP nominee. At least five former aides to former President George H.W. Bush also signed the letter, which has 238 signatures in all.”

  43. St. Pete Poll Has a Shock for Republicans in Florida

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/28/2264019/-St-Pete-Poll-Has-a-Shock-for-Republicans-in-Florida?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “St. Pete Polls has released a survey showing Democratic Challenger Whitney Fox has a four-point lead over Republican incumbent Anna Paulina Luna in Florida’s 13th Congressional District. Likely voters support Fox by 48% to 44% for Luna.

    The district consists of most of the city of St. Petersburg and some of its suburbs to the north. Cook Political Ratings has this race as likely Republican and rates the district as R +6%. Pinnellas County has long been considered a swing area.

    The same poll found Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris leading Republican nominee Donald Trump 51% to 46% within the Pinellas County district, and found Democratic Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell leading incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, 49% to 46%.

    Joe Biden won about 51% of the district’s vote in 2020, but the district lines have been redrawn to make it more Republican. The article states Trump would have won about 53% in the present district.”

  44. Truth Social CFO just sold almost 20% of his stock – rats meet ship

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/28/2266261/-Truth-Social-CFO-just-sold-almost-20-of-his-stock-rats-meet-ship?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “Juhan sold $1.9 million dollars worth — at $22.7 dollars per share that would be over 17% of his shares. That $22.7 dollars per share is very interesting because the CFO Dive article here states:

    The sales came after the company’s audit committee approved the repurchasing of “an aggregate of 128,138 shares of the Company’s common stock from certain executive employees,” at a share price of $22.7, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    So, a company that is hemorrhaging money votes to buy $2.9 million dollars of stock from its executives while the company swirls down the drain. This is not a normal stock buy back where the board authorizes a buyback and all shareholders get a chance to participate in equal percentages. Nope, this is an express offramp for the rat leadership. If nothing speaks to the grift that is Truth Social, this act sure does.”

  45. This is a very informative answer given to this question, by Jennifer Rubin of The Washington Post:

    Ending minority rule means ending the Senate filibuster by email. Senators Manchin and Sinema won’t be back. Manchin’s West Virginia seat is gone. Ruben Gallego would be a gain in Arizona. What’s your sense Dems can hold the Senate and fix the filibuster mess? Will a large Harris win do it?

    First, they must hold the Senate. With Manchin’s departure, Montana becomes the critical state. (Ohio, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan are competitive, but Democrats there are all running well.) If Jon Tester wins in Montana, then Democrats have to find one more seat. Dan Osborn is running surprisingly well in Nebraska. Colin Allred has a shot in Texas, and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has a chance in Florida, especially if she focuses on the homeowners’ insurance crisis there. If they get to 50 and win the White House, then Democrats would have the votes to change the filibuster. Republicans will squawk. But if after good faith attempts to strike deals on reasonable measures (e.g., the border bill) Republicans still filibuster, then Democrats will likely move. At the very least, they’d force Republicans to hold the floor (a so-called “walking filibuster”). That’s a lot of “ifs,” but with a sizeable Harris win, it is within the realm of possibility.

    Tim Walz’s connection to Nebraska becomes a very significant piece of the presidential outcome puzzle when the above is taken into account.

  46. C@tmomma

    Trump Depicts Kamala Harris Wearing an Orange Prison Jumpsuit

    Trump unleashed a new round of threats to lock up his political opponents

    https://meidasnews.com/news/trump-depicts-kamala-harris-wearing-an-orange-prison-jumpsuit

    “Trump depicts Kamala Harris, others in prison jumpsuits

    This Trump repost depicts Kamala Harris in an orange prison jumpsuit along with the caption, “How to actually ‘Fix the System.'” Trump’s repost also shows Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, Anthony Fauci, and Bill Gates also in prison jumpsuits.”

    All the jumsuit doctored photos of various opponents are in the article

  48. The NY Times front page when Comey revived the Clinton email inquiry (later dismissed):

    The NY Times front page when a grand jury re-indicted Trump on criminal charges re the 2020 election – squint and you’ll miss it:

  49. AP News

    Trump shares social media posts with QAnon phrases and calls for jailing lawmakers, special counsel

    https://apnews.com/article/trump-social-media-conspiracy-e3bbd855a2710d6b4bb4f480dd77e190

    “Donald Trump shared more than a dozen posts on his social media network Wednesday that call for the trial or jailing of House lawmakers who investigated the attack on the U.S. Capitol, special counsel Jack Smith and others, along with images that reference the QAnon conspiracy theory.

    The former president began posting a string of messages Tuesday evening after Smith filed a new indictment against him over his efforts to undo his loss in the 2020 presidential election. The new indictment keeps the same criminal charges but narrows the allegations against Trump following a Supreme Court opinion last month that extended broad immunity to former presidents.

    Trump reposted a doctored image that was made to look like President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in orange prison jumpsuits, among other political figures, and a lewd post about Harris and Clinton that referenced a sex act. One post seemed to suggest former President Barack Obama should be tried in a military court.

  50. C@t:

    I agree Walz’s background may be advantageous in Nebraska. I also admit I was wrong about him. He’s a better nominee than Shapiro would’ve been.

Comments Page 10 of 12
1 … 9 10 11 12

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *