The fortnightly Essential Research poll is notable in recording a four-point dip in Labor’s already soft primary vote 28%, although the dividend goes mostly to the Greens, up three to 14%, rather than the Coalition steady on 34%, with One Nation steady on 7% and a steady 6% undecided. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is back to having Labor and the Coalition tied at 47% apiece, with the balance undecided, with Labor steady and the Coalition up a point. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1132.
Some insight into the government’s precarious position is provided by a suite of questions on prospects for the coming year, finding 67% expect the cost of living situation to worsen with only 11% expecting it to improve, with broadly negative sentiment also recorded in relation to employment and wages. Questions on Indigenous issues find a 58-42 split in favour of the proposition that Indigenous disadvantage is a result of “the personal decisions they make” against the alternative of “systemic” explanations, and a 59-41 split against establishing a Makaratta commission to negotiate a treaty.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has a 50-50 tie on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, erasing Labor’s 51.5-48.5 lead last time, from primary votes of Labor 29.5% (down one), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 14% (up two) and One Nation 5% (down half). The pollster’s alternative two-party measure based on preference flows at the 2022 election has Labor ahead 51-49, in from 51.5-48.5 last week.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-15/gambling-ad-laws-pushed-back-further-over-internal-resistance/104226006?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=other
Internal Labor tussle over gambling advertising laws pushes reforms further back
“Changes to gambling advertising won’t happen until next month at the earliest as the government scrambles to manage a caucus pushback and resistance from the crossbenches.
The ABC understands the issue will not come before cabinet next week when it meets on Monday, with sources saying they understand a group of Labor MPs are pushing to put the case for a full ban on advertising to the prime minister in person.”
Good on those Labor members pushing back against such cowardice!
The Greens have also made it clear they are more then happy with the original proposal… time for Albo, Shorten and the rest to get out of the way and let Labor, the Greens, and the cross bench get this done
The monthly CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) Index was flat in July, unchanged at 148.2, as consumers look to prioritise discount shopping options.
Good news for labor no tax cut spike.
Lordbain says:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 11:16 am
Griff, not sure what CoI exists and the structure that be would rather entire generations suffer and burn then consider shifting power and resources away from the current winners has to do with the Greens and Labor not agreeing to policy that Labor has also not been prepared to negotiate on… bit of a long bow.
Also a bit odd that you dont refer to the Teals, that are also “holding” it up
________
This is a seperate post. I think you are mistakenly conflating my two posts. As for holding the legislation up, if the Coalition decides to support the legislation, then bully for them! See NACC legislation. The alternative is to thread the eye of the needle between The Greens and the cross bench. In some cases it may be Labor that is resistant to change where the cross bench and The Greens are on the same side. In this case it appears Labor is between the two positions as per your post.
Lordbain says:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 11:21 am
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-15/gambling-ad-laws-pushed-back-further-over-internal-resistance/104226006?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=other
Internal Labor tussle over gambling advertising laws pushes reforms further back
“Changes to gambling advertising won’t happen until next month at the earliest as the government scrambles to manage a caucus pushback and resistance from the crossbenches.
The ABC understands the issue will not come before cabinet next week when it meets on Monday, with sources saying they understand a group of Labor MPs are pushing to put the case for a full ban on advertising to the prime minister in person.”
Good on those Labor members pushing back against such cowardice!
The Greens have also made it clear they are more then happy with the original proposal… time for Albo, Shorten and the rest to get out of the way and let Labor, the Greens, and the cross bench get this done
_______
A potential case in point to my previous post. We shall see what Labor does. I hope they go the full ban.
Vensays:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 9:33 am
”
Rewisays:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 9:18 am
Rex
My impression of Taylormade was that he’d want to be reassured that suggestions that the Liberal party has been infiltrated by Labor sleeper cells are categorically untrue.
”
Rewi
I won’t leave you there.
How can you account for state of affairs of Taylormade’s beloved Victorian Liberal party(Liberal party jewel in the crown) for over last 25 years without Labor sleeper cells? Did Bracks do something about it?
Or recent state of affairs of the state units of Liberal party in SA, WA and QLD? Can someone be so stupid without accounting for sleeper cells? Can someone, calling themselves a serious political party and who governed NSW for 12 years, be so stupid to miss the dealine of nominations.
If ALP did these kind of things the MSM would absolutely roast ALP.
This is even beyond even MTG and LB acts
====================================================
Don’t blame wilful sabotage to what can be attributed to general incompetence. As we well know the Liberal’s have form in appointing incompetent Generals to important position. So the real question is, which incompetent General was responsible for this general incompetence?
Griff, I am going to say one of those shocking things… I think the Greens should “go easy” on Labor in this case. I dont think they should accept it as is, but I also dont think they should be shooting for a 50 50 ish split on the negotiation.
Only on this case though, dont want operation support dutton to destroy Labor to fail 😉
“The school complex was used by Hamas – a listed terrorist organisation – as a command and control centre, Israel authorities said.”
A statement firmily in the …they would say that wouldnt they? category.
To me it underlines what the Israelis have demosntrated from day 1 of htis conflict, and over the last few years. They have no regard for civilian casualties when they decide to make war.
Yup, they have the right to defend themselves, but HOW they do that matters. The wholesale destruction in Gaza is wrong, and impedes getting to any kind of political solution, like 2 state. And neither Israelies or Palestinians wil have anything approaching reliable and ongoing peace and security without a political settlement.
Lordbain says:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 11:28 am
Griff, I am going to say one of those shocking things… I think the Greens should “go easy” on Labor in this case. I dont think they should accept it as is, but I also dont think they should be shooting for a 50 50 ish split on the negotiation.
Only on this case though, dont want operation support dutton to destroy Labor to fail
_________
I agree with you there. The Greens need at least one tweak to be able to sell it as a win for them (which they will ad infinitum). But in the end progressive legislation is passed and the country benefits (slightly – there are financial mitigation paths via trusts, companies and charities. Goodness knows what else).
Hamas is a genocidal organization.
The Israel Government, ditto.
Why would either side have any compunction at all about using civilians as human shields to go into booby trapped tunnels and houses, using a school/hospital/mosque as a command and control center, or bombing a school?
Dutton and Bandt are playing with fire, secure in the knowledge that they are not the ones who are getting burned because of the rising tide of islamophobia and anti-semitism.
They should pull their heads in.
Of course, you would have identified the threat that Japan was to Australia in the 1930’s and had Australia properly prepared.
===============================================
Pig Iron Bob didn’t either but he did recognise the business opportunity it presented.
The real story?
Japan was an Ally from WW1, relations were still cordial in 1937.
The only reason the ship wasn’t loaded was Japan was in a situation of armed conflict with the USSR along the Chinese border and the Waterside Workers Federation was controlled by Moscow aligned Communists.
UK cartoons and other miscellany
Guy Venables
Morten Morland
Patrick Blower
Dave Brown #RoguesGallery
The Original Juan Sanchez Cotan
Ella Baron
Ann Telnaes
Christian Adams
Banx
Nick Newman
Kipper Williams
Ellis Rosen
Wayno
Bill Whitehead
Jonsey
Mark Parisi
Alex Masterly
Garthtoons
Perlman
==========================================
Stolen from the internet
Just to annoy Elon
==================================
The French Connection
“Honk if you love Jesus. Send a text while driving if you want to meet him.”
Lordbainsays:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 11:28 am
Griff, I am going to say one of those shocking things… I think the Greens should “go easy” on Labor in this case. I dont think they should accept it as is, but I also dont think they should be shooting for a 50 50 ish split on the negotiation.
========================================================
I think it should be a split based on the polling of both primary votes at the time. I think representatives of both sides should post on PB. Arguing over which poll truly reflect the actual primary of each party currently. Once they come to an agreement (BW and Lordbain style). They will know what negotiation split numbers to use.
Herald Sun 15/08
The former Victorian political staffer who last year claimed she was raped by dumped Labor MP Will Fowles has broken her silence, saying the justice system is failing alleged victims.
_____________________
Forget sleeper cells. I am more worried about the ALP staffer who was allegedly raped by a State Labor MP.
Apparently Allan has been too busy to meet with her as yet.
But surely Vic Police owes us an explanation on why the case is now closed.
imacca says:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 11:32 am
Hamas were moving toward a political solution by rocketing, raping, murdering and kidnapping? Got it.
Entropy, thats a little too utopian even for me…
Dutton is running the Trump race hate playbook yesterday and today.
It is working like a charm!
Dutton@Trump.
Dutton and Bandt are playing with fire, secure in the knowledge that they are not the ones who are getting burned because of the rising tide of islamophobia and anti-semitism.
The United Nations was set up to adjudicate these situations.
Albanese offering Holiday Visas to Gazans is straight outta Clown World.
Someone says ASIO vetting rules out males from 12-72 for visas. If that’s right, then are we bringing in children under 12 accompanied by geriatrics?
Sounds ripe for exploitation by unsavoury characters if that’s the case?
Unemployment rate up more aussies unemployed.
Liberal v Liberal
Re: Brown. Who knows? She may be crook. I don’t care.
Did all Five Morrison Hats turn up in support of Reynolds?
Badthinkersays:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 11:42 am
Of course, you would have identified the threat that Japan was to Australia in the 1930’s and had Australia properly prepared.
===============================================
Pig Iron Bob didn’t either but he did recognise the business opportunity it presented.
The real story?
Japan was an Ally from WW1, relations were still cordial in 1937.
The only reason the ship wasn’t loaded was Japan was in a situation of armed conflict with the USSR along the Chinese border and the Waterside Workers Federation was controlled by Moscow aligned Communists
=====================================================
Neville Chamberlain has nothing on you Badthinker. So how many innocent civilians did Japan mass murder in Nanjing in 1937?
Dutton and Bandt are playing with fire, secure in the knowledge that they are not the ones who are getting burned because of the rising tide of islamophobia and anti-semitism.
Entropy, that was just “border disputes”… jesus christ, at least Chamberlain had the political realities to deal with. Badthinker has the benefits of living almost a century after the fact.
Badthinker at 11:42, and in hindsight the Moscow aligned communists were right.
Happy Indian Independence Day, 15 August, bludgers of Indian descent. (Forgot to say it earlier).
Badthinker @ #360 Thursday, August 15th, 2024 – 11:42 am
I think this may be alternative history. The Dalfram dispute occurred after the Japanese invasion of Manchuria, the Marco Polo Bridge incident and the Massacre of Nanjing but before the major Japanese Soviet War,
pied piper says:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 11:55 am
Unemployment rate up more aussies unemployed.
___________
Hmm…..
The participation rate, which gauges the share of the working age population in the workforce, clicked higher to a record 67.1%.
Socrates @ #375 Thursday, August 15th, 2024 – 11:59 am
Feast of the Assumption, VJ Day and the date of my grandfather’s death.
GOP pollster on Trump-Harris: ‘I haven’t seen anything like this’
Republican pollster Frank Luntz appears stunned at the current state of the Kamala Harris-Donald Trump matchup and this year’s presidential election.
Luntz, who’s been called “The Nostradamus of pollsters” and conducts focus groups, had been bullish on Trump defeating Joe Biden and returning to the White House. Now, he says, he can’t believe what he’s seeing among his focus groups and in the polls.
“She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden, so the entire electoral pool has changed and if it continues in this direction you have to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House,” Luntz said Wednesday on CNBC.
https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/08/gop-pollster-on-trump-harris-i-havent-seen-anything-like-this.html
Fubar at 11:46, I know that it is reported she is unwell. I don’t know any more than that and I doubt you do either.
If Morrison can bive evidence by video link, why couldn’t Brown?
Granny Annysays:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 11:58 am
Badthinker at 11:42, and in hindsight the Moscow aligned communists were right
=========================================================
Not surprising that a pack of deluded communists living in La La land. Still had a firmer understanding of the threat Imperial Japan represented. Than Pig Iron Bob, who just thought “show me the money”. Even the fairies at the end of garden would have made better foreign policy than this.
OC,
Forgot about Feast of the Assumption!
Entropy says:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 12:08 pm
Granny Annysays:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 11:58 am
Badthinker at 11:42, and in hindsight the Moscow aligned communists were right
=========================================================
Not surprising that a pack of deluded communists living in La La land. Still had a firmer understanding of the threat Imperial Japan represented. Than Pig Iron Bob, who just thought “show me the money”. Even the fairies at the end of garden would have made better foreign policy than this.
______________
I think it was more than just communists. The Labor movement as a whole did not generally view Japan as anything more than a threat before ww2. The Liberals viewed things differently through the lens of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance and trading potential.
Both viewpoints had their time being correct I would think.
As OH pointed out, the shadow on this image shows the sun almost directly overhead. So perhaps somewhere in the Francophone world close to the equator?
Douglas and Milko says:
Wednesday, August 14, 2024 at 9:29 pm
A_E
Also, any chance of catching up with you and AE for a boozy catch-up?
______
“In vino veritas!
Although I won’t be around sydney for nearly a month from next week”
We will find a time that work for us all!
________
21st Sept onwards works for me.
Granny Annysays:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 12:07 pm
Fubar at 11:46, I know that it is reported she is unwell. I don’t know any more than that and I doubt you do either.
If Morrison can bive evidence by video link, why couldn’t Brown?
=====================================================
If it is a mental health issue brought about by the stress of Reynolds’ team subpoenaing her to testifying. She shouldn’t testify, her mental health is far more important. Than Reynolds’ desire to exact vengeance on her former staffer. How much more collateral damage does Reynolds want to achieve in this?
Granny Anny says:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 12:07 pm
She has a serious mental illness due to the lies told by Higgins about how Brown et al treated her.
Her career and health were destroyed.
davesays:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 12:14 pm
Entropy says:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 12:08 pm
Granny Annysays:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 11:58 am
Badthinker at 11:42, and in hindsight the Moscow aligned communists were right
=========================================================
Not surprising that a pack of deluded communists living in La La land. Still had a firmer understanding of the threat Imperial Japan represented. Than Pig Iron Bob, who just thought “show me the money”. Even the fairies at the end of garden would have made better foreign policy than this.
______________
I think it was more than just communists. The Labor movement as a whole did not generally view Japan as anything more than a threat before ww2. The Liberals viewed things differently through the lens of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance and trading potential.
Both viewpoints had their time being correct I would think.
=====================================================
The unions movement did block the pig iron being sent to Japan at the time. They obviously saw some form of threat in supplying it to them. Even if it was just to the people of China?
Zali Steggall tells Peter Dutton to “stop being racist”
(1) Dutton would not have said something like that without thinking about it first. It almost certainly means that in Australia, as in the USA, mere dog whistling is no longer the highest EV play for conservative parties. Overt racism, at least in the eyes of the neutral observer, is now the norm.
(2) Zali Steggall should think very carefully before similarly opening her mouth in the future. The Teals’ were only ever on borrowed time and to present themselves like this may well seem santimonious to even the higher-educated people in their electorates. It might not quite cost her her job but it may well cost her colleagues.
Entropy
There was an issue about Fiona Brown testifying in the Lehrmann defamation trial due to her health
Her evidence was not live streamed but recorded and released later.
Presumably her issues are ongoing.
“(2) Zali Steggall should think very carefully before similarly opening her mouth in the future. The Teals’ were only ever on borrowed time and to present themselves like this may well seem santimonious to even the higher-educated people in their electorates.”
Is that you, Peta?
The Teals’ power is educated, well-off traditional Liberal voters who can’t stand Dutton’s crass bullshit but might not bring themselves to vote directly for Labor. Dutton’s move will not appeal to those voters; Zali’s stand will.
As long as the Teals are Lib-friendly on economic issues, such as superannuation, and progressive on social issues, they’ll stick where they are.
Yep participation rate up due to high immigration displacing Aussies from jobs.
Vote loser for labor.
Meanwhile…
Angry aggressive women
‘Stop being racist’: Steggall’s slur as Dutton seeks Gazan debate
The Opposition Leader clashed with Zali Steggall as he moved to suspend standing orders in a failed bid to debate Gazan refugee screening, while outside the chamber Sarah Hanson-Young instigated a corridor clash with David Littleproud | WATCH-the aus today
The South Australian Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission (EDBC) has this morning released its draft of new state electoral boundaries for South Australia. The draft boundaries are open for comment and will be finalised later this year.
The Commission managed to find enough voters in the state’s empty north to keep Flinders within quota, and allow the rest of Port August to be combined with Whyalla in the re-drawn seat of Giles. The Labor margin declines from 21.1% to a still healthy 17.4%.
Losing the rest of Port Augusta has an impact on Frome, won by Independent Geoff Brock in 2022. He is helped by parts of his former seat of Frome being added to Stuart, though whether he will contest the seat in 2026 is not known. The EDBC report does not provide an estimated two-candidate margin from Stuart, but does estimate the underlying 2-party preferred margin for the moves from Labor 1.0% to Liberal 0.5%, so it is a notional Liberal seat but doesn’t reduce the challenge the Liberal Party needs to win the next election.
The marginal Labor seat of King in Adelaide’s north-west is strengthened for Labor, rising from 3.0% to 5.7% as population growth on Adelaide’s northern fringe re-arranges a number of seats.
Black in Adelaide’s south, the seat of just departed Liberal Leader David Spiers, has its Liberal margin cut from 2.8% to 1.0%.
Most other seats undergo nudges that shouldn’t have an overall impact on results.
On current boundaries, Labor holds only four seats on margins under 5% and three between 5% and 10%. On the new boundaries there are only three under 5% but the number between 5% and 10% increases to five. With several Liberal seats in the hands of Independents, the party and its new leader Vincent Tarzia have a mountain to climb to win the next election.
South Australia no longer has an overall fairness provision that takes swings to win and lose into account in drawing boundaries. As it was once a required factor in drawing boundaries, the EDBC still allows it to be considered.
A uniform swing of 5.1% would deliver the Liberal Party victory on these boundaries, so it appears to have been taken into account.
However, getting a uniform swing in South Australia was always the biggest problem in applying the fairness provision.
The South Australian Labor Party has always been expert at hanging on to key marginal seats to win elections, and the Liberal Party has had a chronic problem with losing underlying Liberal seats to Independents, usually by defection but also by new independents like Geoff Brock.
The new electoral pendulum is so lopsided that even if things went wrong for the Malinauskas government between now and 2026, there could be a repeat of Labor’s 2010 win when the party shed a huge number of votes in its safe seats while clinging on to the marginals. Labor has 20 seats on margins above 10%. You need 24 seats for majority government in the SA House of Assembly.
A note on the seat of Mawson, a seat that has constantly shown the problem with trying to draw boundaries based on past results. Ahead of the 2018 election, the EDBC largely pulled the seat out of the metropolitan area and extended it south and added Kangaroo Island. Sitting Labor MHA Leon Bignell defied the boundary drawers by winning Mawson even as the Wetherill government was defeated. In 2022 he got another huge swing in his favour and the EDBC list 14.2% as the margin for the new Mawson. Whether Labor can find a new candidate to match Bignell’s giant killing efforts in holding Mawson is open to doubt.
https://antonygreen.com.au/draft-south-australian-electoral-boundaries-released/
I saw a shopping bag in one of the big shopping chains, i reads:
I could give up shopping but I am not a Quitter
Teals seeing recent opinion polls poor result for them have done the following today…
Finally, the unfair super tax looks set to fail
Thank you. We have all played a role in avoiding a national disaster, with the Albanese government’s super bill set to be defeated.
Robert Gottliebsen
Re “Pig Iron Bob” – China wasn’t communist of course at the time, communist sympathies were a very minor factor. Japanese militarism by 1937 was already a major concern in the Anglosphere – the ineffective League of Nations was engaged in the question of whether there should be sanctions against Japan, Billy Hughes gave a big speech attacking Japanese militarism, the newspapers of the time were very anti-Japanese by then even if formally relations were still good. The waterfront unions’ opposition to iron to Japan and friendship to Chinese sailors coming ashore was very much based in horror at the reporting of Japanese military atrocities.
Arky
“As long as the Teals are Lib-friendly on economic issues, such as superannuation, and progressive on social issues, they’ll stick where they are.”
+1
When you look at the votes of Teal seats in both the Marriage Equality plebiscite and the Voice referendum, I doubt calling out racism will cost Steggall a single vote, same with her colleagues.
The LNP seems to have all but given up on recovering those seats, judging by Dutton’s tactics.
@pied piper:
“Angry aggressive women”
There’s lot of angry people in Parliament, male and female. Singling out the women and adding “aggressive” seems rather misogynist of you to me. What else can you expect of a Liberal, though? If they aren’t misogynists themselves, they’re happy to be led by them.
Slight correction; parts of China were indeed under the “control” (as much as it could be called that) of Mao and other communists in 37.
There are many reasons why the dock workers acted as they did during the pig iron event, none of which fit into BTs timeline
Pauline Hanson is the prototypical angry aggressive woman.
But is she misogynist?