The fortnightly Essential Research poll is notable in recording a four-point dip in Labor’s already soft primary vote 28%, although the dividend goes mostly to the Greens, up three to 14%, rather than the Coalition steady on 34%, with One Nation steady on 7% and a steady 6% undecided. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is back to having Labor and the Coalition tied at 47% apiece, with the balance undecided, with Labor steady and the Coalition up a point. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1132.
Some insight into the government’s precarious position is provided by a suite of questions on prospects for the coming year, finding 67% expect the cost of living situation to worsen with only 11% expecting it to improve, with broadly negative sentiment also recorded in relation to employment and wages. Questions on Indigenous issues find a 58-42 split in favour of the proposition that Indigenous disadvantage is a result of “the personal decisions they make” against the alternative of “systemic” explanations, and a 59-41 split against establishing a Makaratta commission to negotiate a treaty.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has a 50-50 tie on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, erasing Labor’s 51.5-48.5 lead last time, from primary votes of Labor 29.5% (down one), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 14% (up two) and One Nation 5% (down half). The pollster’s alternative two-party measure based on preference flows at the 2022 election has Labor ahead 51-49, in from 51.5-48.5 last week.
SH-Y did some hate mongering in a walk-by.
Dutton, Bandt and SH-Y should pull their heads in.
@Boerwar at 4:11 pm
That is very true, but look at the media coverage of it. It isn’t discussing that. The people that watch QT are overwhelmingly not swing voters, and make up a very small percentage of the population.
SHY… hate mongering.
Huh.
Ok…
Dutton’s hate mongering is getting some well deserved attention from the media.
As his rather arrogant treatment of shadow ministers and the Party Room.
My way or the highway.
Is Cash going to go through with her threat to block reform of the CFMEU?
Once again the Coalition has lined up with the crooks and spivs.
EVERY.SINGLE.TIME.
@Badthinker – there were a few border clashes between Japan and the Soviets by way of their client states, Manchuokuo and Mongolia (with the most significant one being in 1938, a year after Pig Iron Bob), all over real or imagined border violations in completely irrelevant places, and then the Soviets kicked the arses of the Japanese border units in 1939 and they had a non-aggression pact which lasted until 1945. Japan was never a serious threat to the Soviets. Their eyes were firmly focussed on South-East Asia not picking a fight with the Soviet Union over Mongolia, and the Soviets were not so worried about Japan as to be organising for Australian dockworkers to block one shipment of iron to Japan.
2nd of December 1972 says:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 4:03 pm
What are your thoughts on the taxes on alcohol and tobacco that have such and injurious impact on the poor?
Cash OD ing on the Nasty Pills.. again!
@Badthinker – so when FTA watch rates were shrinking but Labor’s vote was going up at the last election, how did your theory work for you then?
Don’t know how more viewership of breakfast shows that platform Pauline Hanson and commercial news and current affairs which have always been the lowest common denominator equivalents of the Herald-Sun, Courier-Mail etc is meant to help the ALP. The TV networks’ owners have never been friends of Labor either, quite the opposite.
Whatever influence is trying to get Labor to back off stopping gambling ads (and I’m happy to see many Labor people include Mike Freelander who I always have time for are reportedly pushing back on this internally and that it’s not yet a done deal), I think it’s the gaming industry and sporting codes not the FTA TV stations who are being appeased.
I have to say I’m not on board for this anti gambling advertising movement. It smacks of wowserism to me. I’m opting out of this part of the progressive package. I think it’s hypocritical and unnecessary.
Don’t think all the hue and cry from some here about gambling ads really rate that highly with most of the electorate and nowhere near the meltdown for Labor as some are touting.
@dave: The problem is the saturation targeting of kids through gambling ads in sport, and the repeated failure of the industry to rein itself in.
People weren’t fixated on gambling ads as a problem before you saw them 20 times an hour in the football, every football broadcast and radio show was sponsored by gambling and featured segments about the odds and various bet-types, etc etc.
Oh sh*t, when did parliament house drop it’s in-house streaming system and use do YouTube instead?
https://www.aph.gov.au/News_and_Events/Watch_Read_Listen
Liz Truss storms off stage after “I Crashed The Economy” Lettuce prank pulled on her by the “Led By Donkeys” group at a talk where she endorsed Donald Trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHNRl-HbsXM
Independent MP Dai Le has described the debate over whether Australia should allow Palestinians fleeing Gaza to settle in the country as “triggering”, after Peter Dutton doubled down on calls for a “temporary” ban.
Le, who represents the seat of Fowler in Sydney’s south-west, fled war-torn Vietnam as a child with her family, before being accepted by Australia as a refugee.
“I’m thinking, ‘Gosh, what if there are families like mine, exactly the same position, but then another country … is saying ‘they’re all terrorists’,” she said. “That would mean that I wouldn’t have had the opportunity to be where I am today.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-15/dutton-doubles-down-on-gaza-refugee-ban/104227484
The Liberals’ failure to nominate their candidates in the council elections is a complete and utter stuff up. No other way to describe it. If I were one of their candidates in those areas with no Liberals (Northern Beaches FFS!), I’d be extremely unhappy.
Hh
Dutton is a thug.
Both Dutton and Bandt should pull their heads in, instead of fostering more hatred and division.
Cash OD ing on the Nasty Pills.. again!
+++++++
That’s her baseline on display!
I was willing to vote for Dutton.
Here’s a bloke, he disappeared from the apology to the stolen generation, he refused to support the Voice in the referendum, and he plays the race card for political gain at every possible opportunity.
Let’s call it what is, Peter Dutton is a racist. Mate, if we weren’t a multicultural nation, everybody would go around looking like you and Pauline Hanson – yuck!
Don’t get Michaelia too mad or she’ll be marching over your way.
https://youtu.be/ZxYUXkMkEDI?feature=shared&t=18
Cash/Attorney General.
Says it all about the Coalition.
Let’s call it what is, Peter Dutton is a racist. Mate, if we weren’t a multicultural nation, everybody would go around looking like you and Pauline Hanson – yuck!
_________
Centre
Then this will make your day!
There’s the Centre I remember!! 😆
I don’t want to vote for Albanese, I can’t vote for Dutton.
It reminds me of 2004. I hated Howard for leading us into a war under false pretenses. I could not possibly vote for a thug like Mark Latham – do you know what I did…I voted for the Greens.
The gods of voting, forgive me, for I knew not what I was doing LOL
It was rectified some elections later. I was going through the candidates to number above the line in the Senate, I came across Stop The Greens, I thought yep, numbered them 1 straight away, then checked the rest of the ballot paper – all good!
Balance in the universe restored 🙂
After today, anyone who still purports to believe that Dutton might have had anything positive to do with Voice, Makarrata and Treaty is fakin’ it.
I assume that Dutton will be wanting to block it because it is too much and the Greens will be wanting to block it because it is not enough.
https://citynews.com.au/2024/students-one-step-closer-to-seeing-debt-slashed/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Pied Piper at 12.38pm.
The superannuation legislation blocked. Is that correct?
If so, in 3 months time the legislation can be resubmitted.
Both the HoR and Senate sit 18 to 28 Nov.
Ie 3 months away, which if blocked again should satisfy the constitutional triggers for a DD. Is this correct?
I think we are heading to a DD next year posters.
Boer, badthinker, William or the pseph minded posters who know the electoral legislation and constitution.
What is the cut off point for a DD please if you have time to calculate please this evening.
Confessions
I told you I was still me 😀
BK
Give me Gomez and Mortisha and throw in Uncle Festa any day…
Actually Mortisha was hot lol
Not much of a honeymoon over in the UK for Keir Starmer’s Labor government, but still, only a month after the election.
BMG Research 5-7 August:
Labour: 33% (-2 from election)
Conservative: 24% (0)
Reform: 18% (+3)
Lib Dems: 12% (0)
Green: 8% (+1)
SNP: 2% (0)
Others: 2% (-2)
Approvals:
Keir Starmer (LAB): -3 (30% approve, 33% disapprove)
Rishi Sunak (CON): -23 (19% approve, 42% disapprove)
Nigel Farage (REF): -14 (23% approve, 37% disapprove)
Ed Davey (LDM): +5 (21% approve, 16% disapprove)
Omnisis 7-8 August:
Labour: 33% (-2)
Conservative: 20% (-4)
Reform: 21% (+6)
Lib Dems: 11% (-1)
Green: 8% (+1)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Others: 4% (0)
The next Newspoll could be a game breaker.
A bad result for Dutton could lead to a ‘moderate’ replacing him as leader for the upcoming election.
A further bad result for Albo could lead to a challenge from Shorten for a top job.
You’re a ‘double hater’. What you need is for a feisty Black woman with an infectious laugh and great dance moves to sashay onto the field giving you a choice, ala Kamala in the US. 😀
She’s gobbled up the double haters who didn’t want to vote for either Biden or Trump.
Don’t think all the hue and cry from some here about gambling ads really rate that highly with most of the electorate and nowhere near the meltdown for Labor as some are touting.
It shouldn’t rate, but Labor chased the Wowser/Catlady vote in 2022 and caught it.
It’s the old story with Labor, promise the Earth to get elected, renege later, and blame the Liberal Party for letting your own voters down.
Last double disolution election date is 29 March 2025 with the last date being called 25 January 2025
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election
https://www.threads.net/@mchandlermather/post/C-rpozyxFNG
It’s true.
They’ve captured both major parties.
Page, there’s no point engaging with BW. Life feels alot better when you just scroll by his listicles…
Always remember; no point playing chess with pigeons
Centre
Under compulsory full preferences it doesn’t matter.
Unless you deliberately vote informal (which I have done a few times since the night Littlefinger knifed Julia) your vote still ends up with one of them.
Yes Confessions I’ll take Kamala.
I never realised how sexy she was until she stared down those hecklers in the crowd at one of her rallies- phwoar
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 6:03 pm
After today, anyone who still purports to believe that Dutton might have had anything positive to do with Voice, Makarrata and Treaty is fakin’ it.
That was nobody to start with, Labor are playing the Racism card early with the 2900 Holiday Visa approvals, just like they did with The Voice.
Albo needs to explain what the game is.
Why not bring them over on the Refugee Intake, if it’s all above board?
SH-Y “why don’t you say something about the children that are being slaughtered
?”
I wouldn’t call that ‘hate-mongering’.
*shrugs*
OC
I gave Latham 2
I don’t vote informal 🙂
I am all for a ban on gambling ads provided it includes the emails i get for crypto-currency. If that is not gambling I don’t know what is.
Centre
I’ll have you know I was part of Team Latham in that election
Sorry Boerwar, but you have been very Trumpy lately.
OC
Hey, he wasn’t going too bad, Murdoch’s media were giving him a shot. Until that handshake, the media then went into frenzy mode and it was all over.
Yes, I voted for Latham as well. Would put him higher than Howard again tomorrow if they were up against each other. That’s how much I think of JWH.
Yes, even I approved of that. No wonder Donald is too scared to debate her!
The stupidity of the Labor campaign, which Latham was controlling, was shown by the release of the Medicare Gold policy , an important health care reform with major downstream effects, being released a week before the election.
Thank God Labor was defeated that day.
PageB……
BW is a big boy and can fend for himself….
Has has been on this site for a long time and a lot of his stuff is thoughtful and passionate. That he gets up your nose is fair enough, but then everyone one here runs the risk of getting up someone else’s nose….
The scroll wheel has been invented for help.
Failing this….go away, have a beer or some other libation and then come back again. Nothing on this site amounts to very much at the end of the day when it comes to the plethora of opinions expressed……However, have to accept there are some very smart people who come here who really know a lot about a lot…….
PageB, if it helps, just remind yourself that BW, if he is anything like he is here in real life interactions, is probably helping both the federal and ACT greens.
Because god knows accusing the Greens, those leftie bleeding heart faeries as they are called here, as being hate mongering spreading’s of social discontent, is unlikey to find much leverage outside of the most rusted on Laborite, or the most deluded ACt Liberal voter (its a special breed here).
Just like C@T etc
Yes, even I approved of that. No wonder Donald is too scared to debate her!
Kamala is going great. She is showing that she can be strong. Donald will lose it in a debate with her I reckon!