Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor (open thread)

The Roy Morgan pendulum swings to Labor, the Nationals pick a new candidate for Parkes, and LNP hopefuls line up to succeed Warren Entsch in Leichhardt.

Time for a new thread, but with not much to report – so the weekly Roy Morgan poll gets a rare guernsey. This week the pollster has Labor ahead 51.5-48.5 on both its respondent-allocated and previous election preference measures, respectively comparing with 50.5-49.5 and 51-49 last time. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (steady), Coalition 37% (down one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 5.5% (down one). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1655.

Two items of preselection news:

• The Nationals have preselected Gunnedah mayor Jamie Chaffey to succeed Mark Coulton when he retires from his rural New South Wales seat of Parkes at the next election. Chaffey won a local party ballot on Saturday from a field of three.

The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports five nominees for Liberal National Party preselection for the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of veteran member Warren Entsch: Alana McKenna, a “local aviation identity” who has Entsch’s endorsement; Sam Brayshaw, a geologist said to be supported by “far north Queensland conservative establishment figures Deirdre and Colin Ford”; local branch secretary Darcy Sanders; Jeremy Neal, a former Cairns councillor; and Margaret Milutinovic, who promotes herself as a “financial goddess”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,496 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Australia steady awaiting RBA decision.

    cowardly RBA will not do the right thing and will instead HODL

  2. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 12:06 pm

    Japan stock market UP 8% today. Australia steady awaiting RBA decision.’
    ———————————-
    Algos gone mad.

  3. Jeremy Green Eche took a chance and purchased the website HarrisWalz.com for $8.99 in 2020 when then-Sen. Kamala Harris of California was seeking the Democratic nomination for president. “I just tried to grab her name and all the heartland governors I could think of,” he recalled Monday in an interview with The Associated Press.
    Four years later, if Harris selects Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, Eche could be looking at a payday. He is willing to sell it — and a slate of over a dozen other Harris websites — for $15,000, he says.

  4. France often touted by nuclear boosters as an ideal example of how a grid should be developed has closed 6 reactors because they can not compete with renewables.

    Bear in mind that electricity bills are heavily subsidised in France.

    They must import their uranium and so are dependent on the market now that Niger has suspended trade.

    The Electric Viking 5 mins

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEXQrmgkQrQ

  5. Entropysays:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 11:15 am
    Probably not a great argument this time LB. C@T is obviously correct in saying this is not the USA forum. Personally i thought having a separate USA forum was working well up to now.
    _____________________
    Am sure Adrian Beaumont would have appreciated your Reynolds v Higgins post on his USA thread the other week.

  6. Entropy @ #NaN Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 11:48 am

    pied pipersays:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 11:45 am
    Labor has chosen to lie with dogs like Hamas it is now catching fleas.

    Payman is coming along and a new Muslim party is forming as well all because of federal labor.
    ========================================================

    That makes no sense at all. Are you actually suggesting if Labor was more pro-Israel. A Muslim party would not be being formed?

    But! But! I thought, according to The Greens’ and Greens-oriented Independent fanbois here, that Labor was too close to Israel!?! 😆

  7. ABR 06/08
    How to look like you’re in your working class electorate when you’re actually swanning around the Amalfi Coast on a private yacht? Victorian Labor MP and John Setka protege Luba Grigorovitch gave it a go.
    _____________________
    Modern Labor in a nutshell.
    Never done a hard days work in her life.

  8. Reckon quite a few posters here owe apologies for stuff said about the thing with UNWRA employees being participants in the October 7 attacks. Not that any of the self righteous echo chamberers would dream of admitting they got it wrong.

  9. The knee- jerk commentary on interest rate speculation and share market gyrations doesn’t do much for the credibility of a lot of financial journalists and orthodox economists.

  10. @c@t:
    “I really don’t get it when partisan commenters try and ascribe emotional actions to rational professionals.”

    There’s far more sentiment and internal biases and less rationality in these decisions than economists care to admit. It’s all educated guesswork anyway. Our RBA board continue to be, as they were under Lowe, extremely orthodox and conservative in their economic views which is not from me a compliment.

  11. At least the RBA economic orthodoxy lot have the advantage of not publishing their views much which retains some credibility (whether deserved or not).

  12. Thankyou for being a self-demonstrating example, Lordbain.

    Your mindless ranting has definitely helped stop the war and save lives, so you are clearly entitled to be self righteous and never admit you got anything wrong or that there’s anything other than black and white in any situation.

  13. Thanks Arky, I would rather be me then someone who spreads the news that maybe half a dozen members of a UN entity were maybe involved in October 7th.

    Definitely justifies 15k + dead children.

    But hey, whats a few dead Palestinians…

  14. Taylormadesays:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 12:35 pm
    Entropysays:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 11:15 am
    Probably not a great argument this time LB. C@T is obviously correct in saying this is not the USA forum. Personally i thought having a separate USA forum was working well up to now.
    _____________________
    Am sure Adrian Beaumont would have appreciated your Reynolds v Higgins post on his USA thread the other week.
    =================================================

    Which was a mistake and i apologised for doing in the open thread, as i didn’t want to further fill the USA thread with further irrelevant posts. Unlike yourself who filled up the dedicated USA thread with posts attacking me for making that mistake. As you are now doing on this thread.

  15. The greens are not in gov its labor who gave a leg up to anti Israel mob and they fed labor are going to pay a massive price.

  16. I am sorry, but the idea that Albo can state without laughing on national TV that ANTIFA and Neo Nazis are the same thing is ridiculous… also concerns me that when ASIO makes their inevitably request for more powers and funding, that the usual suspects (climate protestors, economic protestors, pro Palestinians etc) will be further targeted…. what a farce

  17. Lordbainsays:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 12:57 pm
    I am sorry, but the idea that Albo can state without laughing on national TV that ANTIFA and Neo Nazis are the same thing is ridiculous… also concerns me that when ASIO makes their inevitably request for more powers and funding, that the usual suspects (climate protestors, economic protestors, pro Palestinians etc) will be further targeted…. what a farce
    ==============================================

    The real farce was the head of ASIO’s interview the other night. I’m not saying the Government should defend what the head of ASIO said in his dodgy interview. Though if they do not. You can be sure the LNP will use it as a wedge against them.

  18. meher baba says Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 7:36 am

    Notwithstanding some of the myths around Robin Hood and Ned Kelly, criminals are generally not revolutionaries. I believe that the best response to a crime wave of this type is generally going to be a two-pronged strategy of (a) using the criminal justice system to come down hard on the worst ofenders; and (b) try to divert under-occupied young men into other activities: ideally employment, but also sport and, in the case of young Indigenous men, participation in traditional cultural practices under the guidance of elders. But I’m inclined to disagree with Indigenous leaders (and some non-Indigenous leaders) that a future state of full reconciliation between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people in which young men can be fully reacquainted with traditional cultural practices will solve the problem entirely, reducing crime rates and reducing the appalling rate of imprisonment of Indigenous young men. Quite a bit of that sort of thinking can be found in the Uluru Statement, and I’d love for it to be true, but I fear that traditional culture will always struggling to compete with the allure of social media and, in future, AI driven artificial reality and god only knows what else. And improved social justice can help to reduce the rate of crime driven by poverty and inequality, but I’m not at all sure that much of the crime in Alice Springs at the moment is truly being driven by those things.

    Many decades ago, a previous employer ran a cultural awareness program. One of the few things I remember from it was the difference in when discipline is imposed on the young by the different cultures. In western culture, discipline is imposed from early on and then gradually reduced as the person becomes more mature. In aboriginal cultures discipline is not imposed until the person starts going through initiation, and then it’s very strict. I am not saying one is better than the other, just that in some ways they take opposite approaches. The outcome is probably similar though.

    There can be an issue when teenagers, who have not been subject to discipline when children as per cultural norms, reject the discipline that traditional aboriginal culture would now impose on them. They now have an alternative that can appear more attractive, at least in the short term.

    Is there a solution to this? Probably, but I doubt it will be a simple one size fits all approach. Nor should it be something imposed by people like me.

  19. C@tmomma @ #112 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 12:38 pm

    Entropy @ #NaN Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 11:48 am

    pied pipersays:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 11:45 am
    Labor has chosen to lie with dogs like Hamas it is now catching fleas.

    Payman is coming along and a new Muslim party is forming as well all because of federal labor.
    ========================================================

    That makes no sense at all. Are you actually suggesting if Labor was more pro-Israel. A Muslim party would not be being formed?

    But! But! I thought, according to The Greens’ and Greens-oriented Independent fanbois here, that Labor was too close to Israel!?! 😆

    We have here Schrodinger’s Labour, in the eyes of their detractors they both too close to Israel whilst simultaneously being too close to Hamas.

  20. Lordbainsays:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 1:03 pm
    Too right Entropy; the securitisation of the state especially since 9/11 has been an ongoing cancer…
    ================================================

    With out going that far back in history. You only need to look at the UK over the last week to see where the major threat lies (in both senses of the word too). Yet the stupid head of ASIO didn’t even mention any such aligned groups and listed ANTIFA instead. What a complete tosser.

  21. Entropysays:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 12:54 pm
    Taylormadesays:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 12:35 pm
    Entropysays:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 11:15 am
    Probably not a great argument this time LB. C@T is obviously correct in saying this is not the USA forum. Personally i thought having a separate USA forum was working well up to now.
    _____________________
    Am sure Adrian Beaumont would have appreciated your Reynolds v Higgins post on his USA thread the other week.
    =================================================

    Which was a mistake and i apologised for doing in the open thread, as i didn’t want to further fill the USA thread with further irrelevant posts. Unlike yourself who filled up the dedicated USA thread with posts attacking me for making that mistake. As you are now doing on this thread.
    _________________________________________
    Your only human, its ok to make mistakes Entropy.

  22. Is there anyone silly enough to still have their savings tied up in funds that continue to invest in inner city commercial property …?

  23. Entropy, while its true that public servants as a whole generally vote left, there are certain government departments that are breeding spots for… dare i say right authoritarian thinking.

    Home Affairs, Defence, and anyone remotely related to Intelligence are the usual suspects here… so it doesnt surprise me when their heads spout that nonsense.

    Albo repeating it is a concerning development

  24. Lordbainsays:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 1:09 pm
    MI, not sure who on the right is claiming Labor is too close to Israel…
    =======================================================

    PP on here seemed to be. As he said the reason a Muslim party is forming is due to Labor. If you follow that logic. He is obviously saying Labor is to close to Israel. As i can’t see how you can claim Labor caused a Muslim party to form by being to far the other way.

    Though i do note in the post of PP’s where he says that. He makes two different mutually exclusive statements init. Which taken together make no sense at all.

  25. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 9:20 am

    Both sides have made genocidal vision statements.

    Any evidence of that occurring in Australia?

    List all Jewish/Israeli terrorist attacks within Australia.

    I can wait.

  26. Am sure Adrian Beaumont would have appreciated your Reynolds v Higgins post on his USA thread the other week.

    It was actually my US thread, and I was absolutely fine with Entropy’s honest mistake, as any grown-up would have been.

  27. Sheikh Hasina has fled but can the military be trusted?

    [‘The prime minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, resigned and reportedly fled the country on Monday after protesters stormed her official residence after weeks of deadly anti-government demonstrations in the South Asian nation.

    Scenes of jubilation erupted on the streets as protesters celebrated the end of her 15 years in power by climbing on tanks and scaling an imposing statue of Hasina’s father, independence leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, in Dhaka, attacking the head with an axe.

    In a national address, Bangladesh’s army chief, Gen. Waker-uz-Zaman confirmed Hasina had resigned and said the military would form an interim government.

    Addressing protesters, largely young Bangladeshis and students, he said: “Whatever demands you have we will fulfil and bring back peace to the nation, please help us in this, stay away from violence.”

    “The military will not fire at anyone, the police will not fire at anyone, I have given orders,” he added.

    Images showed flames billowing from vehicles near Hasina’s house, and protesters inside the building, smashing walls and looting its contents.

    Earlier in the day, the military and police had attacked demonstrators rallying in the area, according to a journalist working for CNN in Dhaka.

    At least 91 people were killed and hundreds injured on Sunday in clashes between police and protesters demanding the scrapping of quotas for government jobs and the resignation of the prime minister. Opponents say the civil service job quotas are discriminatory.

    The death toll on Sunday, which included 13 police officers, was the highest for a single day from any protests in the country’s recent history.

    The figure surpassed the 67 deaths reported on July 19, when students took to the streets against the quotas, Reuters reported. At least 32 children were killed during protests last month, UNICEF said on Friday.

    The widespread unrest – which spilled into the cities of Rajshahi, Barisal and Chittagong among others – prompted the government to impose an indefinite nationwide curfew over the weekend. Meanwhile, human rights groups accused authorities of using excessive force against protesters, a charge the government denies’] – CNN

  28. Lordbain says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 1:03 pm
    Too right Entropy; the securitisation of the state especially since 9/11 has been an ongoing cancer…

    Yeah, should just let the terrorists do what they want.

    How many planes are you prepared to lose?

    What’s your optimal body count of dead Australians?

  29. https://x.com/clovis_dm/status/1820268478714266014, on AUKUS/ $$Ns, may be the next Auditor General report will recommend going away from the bulk, capital asset platforms that even Ukraine’s anti-naval forces saw fit to dispose of, then again during the Falklands/ Malvinas conflict a few French jets with about 5 Exocets backed up by private jets fitted with Elint got Sheffield/ Atlantic Conveyer/ …, and instead (#) focus on technology transfer and modular manufacturing, oops

    (# Special forces, space, platforms, missiles, drones, AI …, especially training/ kit that has war and emergency services/ civil defence dual use)

  30. Lordbainsays:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 1:21 pm
    Oh its PP logic… proceed
    ===============================================

    Who knows, he could be the next Lewis Carroll:

    “If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is, because everything would be what it isn’t. And contrary wise, what is, it wouldn’t be. And what it wouldn’t be, it would.”

  31. Lordbain says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 1:19 pm

    It’s ok if ASIO identifies Right Wing Extremists as threats – but if they identify anyone else, they are wrong. Got it. Completely understandable – because there’s never been any terrorist attacks or planning for them, by anyone else except right wing extremists.

  32. Kim Beazley wants taxpayers to subsidise rare earth miners. Govt must boost rare earth output, but not gift $ billions to big companies to meet US needs. Govt should take a strategic stake supporting processing & value-add here. We must be smart. #auspol https://t.co/wv9hmTRPxp— Rex Patrick (@MrRexPatrick) August 6, 2024

    Rex talking sense as usual.

  33. It beggared belief that there was zero overlap between UNWRA, Hamas, and Oct 7 perpetrators.

    The Greens have, of course, been pretty consistent here. Regardless of the truth, they slag Labor. Regardless. They inflame tensions. Regardless. They foment hate. Regardless.

    The Greens have also been relentless in criticizing Israel with respect to the links between UNWRA and Hamas operatives.

    The Albanese Government was quite right to suspend funding of UNWRA because of the possibility that some of its employees had participated directly in rape, child murder, torture and kidnapping of civilians. Which government could possibly fund that? The Greens, of course, DEMANDED that Albanese and Wong fund an organization which had members who participated in Oct 7.

    The Greens will now, doubtless apologize abjectly for the many hundreds of times they attacked Albanese and Wong personally and viciously. They were right. The Greens were wrong. They must feel tempted to launch some defo actions against Bandt.

    Dutton will continue astroturfing communalist hate. Bandt will continue astroturfing communalist hate.

    Dutton and Bandt should pull their heads in. They are making a terrible situation worse.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/05/nine-unrwa-staff-members-may-have-been-involved-in-7-october-attack

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