While they are yet to chalk one up in Newspoll, Coalition two-party poll leads are seemingly becoming less uncommon, as the BludgerTrack poll trend measure (see sidebar) maintains its long slow trajectory in their favour:
• RedBridge Group has a federal poll that credits the Coalition with a two-party preferred lead of 51.5-48.5, compared with a Labor lead of 52-48 at the last such poll in April, and the first lead for the Coalition out of the seven such polls RedBridge has conducted this term. The primary votes are Labor 32% (down one), Coalition 41% (up four) and Greens 11% (down one). The poll was conducted July 10 to 19 from a sample of 1505.
• I neglected to record the result of the weekly Roy Morgan poll this week, so let the record note it found the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred (though with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on the pollster’s own calculation using preference flows from 2022), out from 50.5-49.5 last week. The primary votes were Labor 31.5% (up half), Coalition 39.5% (up two), Greens 13% (up half) and One Nation 5% (steady). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1752.
Preselection news:
• Rhiannon Shine of the ABC reports Mia Davies, former leader of the state Nationals, has confirmed she will seek the party’s preselection for the new federal seat of Bullwinkel, encompasses Perth’s eastern hinterland and the Avon Valley region.
• With Linda Burney announcing her imminent retirement from politics, James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph reports former New South Wales upper house member Shaoquett Moselmane will seek preselection for her southern Sydney seat of Barton. Moselmane failed to retain preselection at the 2023 state election after facing pressure over links to figures connected with the Chinese Communist Party, which resulted in his home being raided in ASIO, and has lately called on Labor to recognise a Palestinian state. Also announcing his retirement last week was Brendan O’Connor, creating a Labor vacancy at the next election for his safe western Melbourne seat of Gorton.
• The Nationals candidate for the western New South Wales seat of Calare will be Sam Farraway, who has held a seat for the party in the state Legislative Council since 2019. Andrew Gee has held the seat as an independent since resigning from the party in December 2022.
• Paul Garvey of The Australian reports Jan Norberger, the sole nominee for Liberal preselection in the Perth seat of Pearce, quit the party a year ago for an unsuccessful Senate preselection bid with Australian Christians, then returned to it afterwards. Norberger held the state seat of Joondalup for the Liberals from 2013 to 2017.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports the Greens will target the Labor-held Brisbane seats of Moreton and Lilley at the next election, and that former LNP member Trevor Evans is “seriously considering” running again in Brisbane, which he lost to the Greens in 2022.
Defamation actions, real and threatened, are how the scared, the stupid and the venal among the rich and powerful silence their critics.
Oh, and for those who think Plibersek has a “commonsense approach to gas” …
https://michaelwest.com.au/electricity-bills-is-energy-market-operator-aemo-getting-owned-by-the-gas-cartel/
I guess this is what they mean by “gaslighting”.
May have jumped the gun on Livestreaming.
Here’s a scholar’s opinion from April 16:
Ironic considering the orange pee fiend will thrash every thing they believe in economically (free trade thrashed e.g.) which proves they simply prioritise hate above all else like the right wing creeps in PB.
BK 8:26am
“Stand by for the great unhingement”
Thanks, joyous news.
In USA, as in Australia, leadership matters. You have to get your best people into the key roles.
”
JD Vance
@JDVance
It turns out that normal Americans care more about their families than their jobs, and want a family policy that doesn’t shunt their kids into crap daycare so they can enjoy more “freedom” in the paid labor force.
11:41 PM · Apr 29, 2021
”
I wonder how Usha Chilukuri Vance raised her 3 children to advance her career as litigation lawyer at top law firm? Maybe she left her children with her mother, who is stay at home mom.
The biggest haters in society are lefties.
BK says:
Monday, July 29, 2024 at 8:26 am
Stand by for the Great Unhingement.
And Harris still has a 3 or 4 point jump in battleground states still to come with her choice of a VP candidate from one of those states
Of the five or six vice-presidential options currently seen as the most serious contenders, two of them — Governors Roy Cooper of North Carolina and Andy Beshear of Kentucky — directly overlapped with Ms. Harris as attorneys general. Now-Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania came into the job as she was leaving her post, and as Mr. Trump entered the White House.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/28/us/politics/kamala-harris-vice-president-attorney-general.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb
“Stand by for the Great Unhingement”
I think it arrived here last night BK?? 🙂 And, forecast to last until May 2025 in
Oz.
On Vance’s Advance:
From WAPO
‘By Elizabeth Dwoskin, Cat Zakrzewski, Nitasha Tiku and Josh Dawsey
Updated July 28, 2024 at 5:24 p.m. EDT|Published July 28, 2024 at 6:05 a.m. EDT
In the weeks before former president Donald Trump announced his vice-presidential pick, some of tech’s biggest names launched a quiet campaign to push for one of their own: Ohio Sen. JD Vance.
The former president fielded repeated calls from tech entrepreneur David Sacks, Palantir adviser Jacob Helberg, and billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel, Vance’s former employer and mentor, imploring him to add the one-time Silicon Valley investor to the ticket, according to three people familiar with the entreaties, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the private conversations.
….
Vance’s most forceful Silicon Valley advocates are euphoric about the former never Trumper’s rise in the GOP. They see Vance as their emissary in Washington, spreading a doctrine that government and entrenched corporate giants from Google to Lockheed Martin stifle innovation, while nimble, bold-thinking start-ups — especially their own — can propel the national interest. And while the ascension of Vice President Harris has invigorated many left-leaning tech leaders, some in Thiel’s network would stand to benefit from having Vance in the White House — a new asset for venture capitalists who until recently shunned Washington.
“WE HAVE A FORMER TECH VC IN THE WHITE HOUSE GREATEST COUNTRY ON EARTH BABY,” Delian Asparouhov, a partner at Thiel’s Founder’s Fund, wrote on X after the announcement of Vance’s nomination.
For Thiel, Vance’s presence on the ticket is the payoff on a prescient bet placed a decade ago, when he embraced the Yale Law School graduate with Rust Belt roots as his protégé — joining a roster that included Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and OpenAI founder Sam Altman.
…’
Global electricity demand is rising at its fastest rate in two decades, but solar is on course to meet half of demand growth, says the IEA.
Global electricity demand is forecast to grow by around 4% in 2024, up from 2.5% in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) newly released “Electricity Mid-Year Update” report. This would represent the highest annual growth rate since 2007, except for rebounds after the global financial crisis and the pandemic. The increase in global electricity consumption is set to continue into 2025, with growth at around 4% again, according to the report.
Renewables are also set to expand rapidly this year and next, with their share of global electricity supply forecast to rise from 30% in 2023 to 35% in 2025. The amount of electricity generated by renewables worldwide in 2025 is forecast to eclipse the amount generated by coal for the first time. Solar alone is expected to meet roughly half of the growth in global electricity demand in 2024 and 2025 – with solar and wind combined meeting as much as 75% of growth.
https://electrek.co/2024/07/18/electricity-demand-growth-at-its-highest-in-two-decades-and-solar-will-meet-half-the-increase/?sh_kit=7a2950363f4b90b1881ae76c68d24551846eea9063b67a6a14e9fa39bc419e40
Is Swiss air Blinky Bill Shorten in France for the olympics?
Big sigh of relief for opposition as he is kept front and centre a walking talking mass ongoing vote killer for labor.NDIS and Centrelink disasters ongoing.
GOP Senate candidates are just plain weird about women
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/28/2258397/-GOP-Senate-candidates-are-just-plain-weird-about-women?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_3&pm_medium=web
Badthinker:
Have you wadded through the 388 pages of the Fitzgerald Inquiry Report yet? If so, are you still holding that corruption in the QPS was a matter of nothing to see here?
Dutton and the astroturfers have done well to target wind farms. They have the able assistance of the Greens. Political wins all over the continent. Stalls investment in renewables. Increases the cost of renewables. What could possibly go wrong?
The point?
Solar and wind are complementary renewables. When the sun don’t shine the wind blows. And vikki verkka.
Delaying or blocking wind forces greater investment in batteries, making renewables more expensive.
But surely even the Greens know that.
So why are they are they helping Gina’s Little Helper delay or block wind farm after wind farm?
Stand by for the great Disillusionment
There are 10 weeks between the end of the DNC and the election. The gloss will have well and truly fallen off KaMala by then. Trump will win in a landslide.
Even if via some miracle she wins, she totally lacks the gravitas and ability to lead the world’s third largest nation. She is a token DEI hack. It would guarantee a red wave in 2026 and a MAGA republican win in 2028 whether it be a 82 year old Trump or one of his heirs.
Meanwhile here in Oz, Albanese is well on his way to oblivion after one term. The long term outlook here is coal, fossil fuels, further tax cuts for the top end and conservative culture wars.
Vote 1 republican for a two for one offer, a perverted orange pee fiend paired with a sicko couch fiend, what a bunch of sicko f***s 😮
No wonder the pooed pooper’s into them 😆
So, question on US procedure.
When Trump lost his VP Pence had to turn up on Jan 6th and receive the slates of electors from each state. Trump wanted him to use that position to hold things up, but he didn’t.
Now ….. Harris is is the VP. So, if she is both the current Presidents VP (like Pence) AND the President elect …..
Who presides over that slates of electors session??
Yes MM, we will all just shush and await the inevitability of our new Overlords. 🙂
Early signs of unhingement from the Trumpists.
Any entertainment executive worth their salt knows when the old schtick stinks. And Trump and his weird sidekick are emanating an unpleasant odour.
Imacca, something I thought about also…
Next Jan. 6, Harris will sit in the same chair Pence occupied — an irony that isn’t lost on the aides and advisers who helped Pence reject Trump’s pressure campaign. They spent the days before Jan. 6, 2021, invoking Harris’ name and urging Trump and his allies to consider what would happen if Pence embraced their fringe proposal — and set a precedent for the future.
“There was never an acknowledgment of the symmetrical situation you could find yourself in if the Democrats were in power,” Marc Short, a longtime Pence adviser who served as his chief of staff, said in a phone interview this week.
Harris’ acknowledgment, through her aides, that she intends to reaffirm the vice president’s traditional role in the electoral vote count carries even greater significance now that she is all but certain to be the Democratic presidential nominee. She is set — like a handful of her forebears — to preside over a process that will confirm her win or loss. In addition to Pence in 2021, several recent vice presidents have overseen their own ticket’s defeat during the Electoral College vote count, including Al Gore in 2001 and Richard Nixon in 1961. George H. W. Bush, on the other hand, presided in 1989 over an Electoral College victory that made him the 41st president.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/25/kamala-harris-jan-6-2025-00171160
Appears the Victorian Liberals are at it again…
Link: https://au.news.yahoo.com/president-election-court-feud-hang-173000445.html
After lots of clapping about “getting the CFMEU”, they then revert to type and get bogged down in the paramount issue of what to call their party chair. ie: Chairman, chair, chairwoman or chairperson.
A vote was held, amidst hurling of the woke epitaph around the room.
Although a majority vote confirmed the name change to “chair”, the vote didn’t meet the 67% threshold to alter their constitution, so ultimately it was lost.
They are the gift which keeps on giving.
Non LNP voters, grab a coffee and enjoy this 5 minute read above.
Sorry, the Vic State LNP is the joke of the millenium.
That would be an old couch musty, jizzy, pee pee odour I’m guessing 😆
nadia88 says:
Sunday, July 28, 2024 at 10:58 am
…………………………………………
WB poll averaging ticker is at 50.6% 2PP ALP
KB average sits at 50.8% 2PP ALP
Expect both these to tighten further when they next adjust their calculations on/around Tues night.
================================================
Bit of dramatic tightening in both WB & KB’s averages, with the inclusion of Redbridge.
Today…
* WB now sitting at 50.4% ALP
* KB sitting at 50.3% ALP (Gosh. big swing KB!-must’ve been the Redbridge sample > 1500)
Careful pls Mr & Dr. If your computer starts showing 49.9% ALP, it could get ugly.
I’ve been copping it all month.
Albanese rebuked pro-Palestinian protesters in his speech to the state conference, saying “we choose delivery and action over empty words”.
Not enough words and no action. Pathetic PM.
So, 99 days out. Is it too soon to start the book on the EC outcome?
Put me down for 272 to Harris, 266 to Trump. Harris doesn’t win Michigan or Georgia.
How far out was the last book run in 2020?
Nadia88 note williams description “long slow trajectory in their favour” .
What is the game changer / circuit breaker ?
nadia88:
Monday, July 29, 2024 at 10:06 am
[‘I’ve been copping it all month.’]
Lucky you’ve got broad shoulders, nadia.
Lars Von Trier @ #75 Monday, July 29th, 2024 – 10:25 am
Well, just more shuffling of the deckchairs certainly will not.
Perhaps some policies showing guts and vision?
Mavissays:
Monday, July 29, 2024 at 10:28 am
nadia88:
Monday, July 29, 2024 at 10:06 am
[‘I’ve been copping it all month.’]
Lucky you’ve got broad shoulders, nadia.
======================================
Yes Mavis. Was getting to the stage I was jumping out of my skin everytime the ALP went below 30.
I think the ALP ship has steadied for the time being.
Newspoll will be a big test in the middle of the month, but I shall pass. Bit of travel. If there is a NT election blog, though I’ll try to swing by for that.
Lars Von Triersays:
Monday, July 29, 2024 at 10:33 am
[Mavis like you I am worried about the mental health of some on here.]
[Whilst you were away last night we had a visitation from Angry Andy.]
[What is to be done ?]
Perhaps you answered your own enquiry Lars !
And you could begin the process?
Hang in there, nadia. Your input in my view is valuable.
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, July 29, 2024 at 10:25 am
Nadia88 note williams description “long slow trajectory in their favour” .
What is the game changer / circuit breaker ?
=================================================
Lars, if Sen Payman becomes the front woman for a new Muslim Votes Grouping, given she is in the Senate they’ll be entitled to a box above the line at the next half Senate. Similar to Babet & the UAP.
If the Muslim Vote bloc takes off, this will impact the ALP primary, though in the lower house, most of that vote will return. In the Upper, it may start costing the ALP more Senators. Really depends on the preferencing thing, but would be a disaster for the ALP if those Muslim Votes exhaust before distribution.
For the LNP – their game changer ; having pretty much swallowed the UAP vote, they must now start to eat into the Pauline vote. They’re not going to eat into the ALP vote, so it has to be Pauline and other small right groupings. Playing the “culture wars” doesn’t work in Aust. WB has now got the LNP vote sitting on 38%, but it needs to be consistently above 40%. So I figure, Pauline has to be on their menu.
Mavissays:
Monday, July 29, 2024 at 9:24 am
…
Couldn’t have been a big deal, Mavis, since Labor legalised brothels and betting shops in pubs 5 minutes after they won power in Qld.
If you can make corruptionn legit with the stroke of a pen, how corrupt was it really?
Goll I am sorry I don’t have time for you at the moment. Maybe next week ?
Garma festival coming up soon, Albo a certainty [assuming he’s not a backbencher by then,]?
So, it is looking increasingly as if there will be a minority government + Teals in the House with a right wing BOP in the Senate.
As you were.
That should work just fine.
Thanks Mavis, all good my end.
Trust all’s well with you too.
I think the site’s just been a bit tense this past six weeks, but all swings and roundabouts I suppose.
We’ll see how the polls pan out during August and later this year.
Badthinker @ #85 Monday, July 29th, 2024 – 11:00 am
Have you switched from your failed campaign to destabilise Labor by making rash suggestions about an early election to making rash suggestions of a leadership challenge now? 😐
Being wrong on both counts will not stop your continued manic insertion of such idiocy into the blog though. Of that we can be certain.
Wondering how much appeal a Muslim Votes Party would have for non Muslims in Labor seats?
Wouldn’t be surprised if Labor internal polling has been researching the same question?
edit:
I’m in a fairly safe Labor seat with a do nothing Labor Member, so I’d be giving any Muslim Party candidate in Moreton [Qld] some serious consideration.
Boerwarsays:
Monday, July 29, 2024 at 11:02 am
So, it is looking increasingly as if there will be a minority government + Teals in the House with a right wing BOP in the Senate.
As you were.
That should work just fine.
========================
Doubt it Boer. It was a good year for the LNP in the 2019 Senate election, but those seats are all up for grabs this time. The ALP should pick up a Senator or 2, unless that Muslim bloc takes off.
Can’t see a rightish wing senate taking place from 1-Jul next year.
Lars, if Sen Payman becomes the front woman for a new Muslim Votes Grouping
nadia88, you do know that Senator Payman has repeatedly stated that she is not going to be a representative for the Muslim Votes party, don’t you? Do you know something about her intention to change her mind as far as this goes, or are you simply ignoring her public statements to the above effect, just so you can play fantasy politics?
Dutton’s wet dream:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/29/maori-leaders-new-zealand-coalition-government-policy-changes
I think it is worth the Greens taking the risk that they work with Dutton to damage Labor so badly that the Greens get to share a BOP in the House with the Teals and then just have to put up with a right wing BOP in the House.
It is extremely unlikely that Pocock will be the House kingmaker after the next election.
It is looking increasingly positive for those who like small government and no change.
Putting Tony Burke in as Home Affairs Minister has several benefits for Labor.
Not the least being he is extremely well connected and respected in the mainstream Sydney Muslim community. Much more so than the fringe crew looking to Glenn Druery for advice.
20 years representing the electorate with the largest Muslim population, where Lakemba mosque is, has given him insights into this voting block and what they want second to none.
By boosting Dutton’s chances, this is something of the sort the Greens are playing with:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2024/jul/29/new-zealand-coalition-government-policy-changes-maori-impact-revealed
And if you think speculating about a Muslim Votes party is just a bit of fun and political games, then just consider what they would actually be advocating for. Social norms in their community like this:
(The Guardian)
Without a scintilla of ageism, I think Tim Walz looks older than his years – 60. At 46, the governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro hasn’t a grey hair, and like Walz, is articulate.
Penn has 19 electoral college votes and was only narrowly
won (1.17% ) by the Dems in 2020 whereas Minnesota has only ten votes and has been a Dem hold since ’72. Go Josh!
‘C@tmomma says:
Monday, July 29, 2024 at 11:14 am
And if you think speculating about a Muslim Votes party is just a bit of fun and political games, then just consider what they would actually be advocating for. Social norms in their community like this:
…’
————————————–
We have far too much sectarian and communalist hatred already. I note that several Bludgers continue directly and indirectly to try to add to it.
You need to stop putting up posts like this, IMO. That behaviour does not reflect on all muslims.
Similarly, recently some christians killed a child by refusing her insulin injections. That does not reflect on all christians.
As predicted various Greens and Liberal slaggers took the reshuffle as an opportunity to slag Labor.
They just can’t help themselves.