RedBridge Group: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition (open thread)

The first RedBridge Group federal poll since April gives the Coalition its first two-party lead from the pollster out of its seven published results this term.

While they are yet to chalk one up in Newspoll, Coalition two-party poll leads are seemingly becoming less uncommon, as the BludgerTrack poll trend measure (see sidebar) maintains its long slow trajectory in their favour:

• RedBridge Group has a federal poll that credits the Coalition with a two-party preferred lead of 51.5-48.5, compared with a Labor lead of 52-48 at the last such poll in April, and the first lead for the Coalition out of the seven such polls RedBridge has conducted this term. The primary votes are Labor 32% (down one), Coalition 41% (up four) and Greens 11% (down one). The poll was conducted July 10 to 19 from a sample of 1505.

• I neglected to record the result of the weekly Roy Morgan poll this week, so let the record note it found the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred (though with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on the pollster’s own calculation using preference flows from 2022), out from 50.5-49.5 last week. The primary votes were Labor 31.5% (up half), Coalition 39.5% (up two), Greens 13% (up half) and One Nation 5% (steady). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1752.

Preselection news:

Rhiannon Shine of the ABC reports Mia Davies, former leader of the state Nationals, has confirmed she will seek the party’s preselection for the new federal seat of Bullwinkel, encompasses Perth’s eastern hinterland and the Avon Valley region.

• With Linda Burney announcing her imminent retirement from politics, James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph reports former New South Wales upper house member Shaoquett Moselmane will seek preselection for her southern Sydney seat of Barton. Moselmane failed to retain preselection at the 2023 state election after facing pressure over links to figures connected with the Chinese Communist Party, which resulted in his home being raided in ASIO, and has lately called on Labor to recognise a Palestinian state. Also announcing his retirement last week was Brendan O’Connor, creating a Labor vacancy at the next election for his safe western Melbourne seat of Gorton.

• The Nationals candidate for the western New South Wales seat of Calare will be Sam Farraway, who has held a seat for the party in the state Legislative Council since 2019. Andrew Gee has held the seat as an independent since resigning from the party in December 2022.

Paul Garvey of The Australian reports Jan Norberger, the sole nominee for Liberal preselection in the Perth seat of Pearce, quit the party a year ago for an unsuccessful Senate preselection bid with Australian Christians, then returned to it afterwards. Norberger held the state seat of Joondalup for the Liberals from 2013 to 2017.

Sarah Elks of The Australian reports the Greens will target the Labor-held Brisbane seats of Moreton and Lilley at the next election, and that former LNP member Trevor Evans is “seriously considering” running again in Brisbane, which he lost to the Greens in 2022.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

704 comments on “RedBridge Group: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition (open thread)”

Comments Page 13 of 15
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  1. ‘Butcher says:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 5:45 pm

    The Iraq War was the best war ever. It paid for itself.
    ….’
    ————————-
    Most wars in the empire expansionary phase pay for the conquerer. The conquered pay. And pay. And pay. As we have seen in Indigenous Australia.

    The Greens approach to leaving Australia completely defenceless is one of their more ‘interestin’g national experiments.

  2. Australia is short of IV saline solution. Why on earth can’t we pit together and package a 0.9% sodium chloride solution in sterile water. It’s hardly high tech!

  3. ‘Butcher says:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 5:53 pm

    Boerwar you should join Advance Australia. The enemy of my enemy is my friend and all that.’
    ———————–
    There is virtually no real difference between AA and the Greens.

    Both face the problem that their respective extremist positions represent maybe 10-15% yet both want to run the country as if they represent over 50% of the country.

    I wouldn’t give tuppence for either of them.

  4. ‘BK says:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 5:55 pm

    Australia is short of IV saline solution. Why on earth can’t we pit together and package a 0.9% sodium chloride solution in sterile water. It’s hardly high tech!’
    ——————–
    Astonishing how the simplification of the economy proceeds apace.

  5. Has anyone heard of one of the eastern states building a proton beam therapy centre? Victoria was meant to but hasn’t. SA tried and has a building but no machine. Isn’t NSW meant to build one?

  6. BK @ #604 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 5:55 pm

    Australia is short of IV saline solution. Why on earth can’t we pit together and package a 0.9% sodium chloride solution in sterile water. It’s hardly high tech!

    If only it somehow involved fossil fuels, the government would bend over backwards to approve it, deregulate it, and subsidize its production. Then sell it offshore.

  7. Butchersays:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 5:53 pm
    Boerwar you should join Advance Australia. The enemy of my enemy is my friend and all that.
    ============================================

    After only 24 hours of posting on here, so called “Butcher” attacks his third poster. It is like he had grievances against them, even before he started posting. Though maybe he just dislikes humanity in general, now what is the word for that again?

  8. ‘Diogenes says:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 6:01 pm

    Has anyone heard of one of the eastern states building a proton beam therapy centre? Victoria was meant to but hasn’t. SA tried and has a building but no machine. Isn’t NSW meant to build one?’
    ——————
    If you Google it you get quite a few few future tense statements.

  9. Lordbain @ #607 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 6:00 pm

    There is no difference between Advance and the Greens… ok. I think my brain just broke…

    It’s that old horseshoe theory again … you know the one …

    For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
    For want of a horse the poll was lost.
    For want of a poll the PM was lost.
    For want of a PM the party was lost.
    For want of a party the election was lost.
    And all for the want of a horseshoe.

  10. There’s no doubt in my mind that more and more conservative and progressive voters are smartening up to the former and current Govt’s corruption by the fossil fuel industry, the property industry, the gambling industry, the defence industry and the big consultancies.

  11. Boerwar says Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 5:54 pm

    Most wars in the empire expansionary phase pay for the conquerer. The conquered pay. And pay. And pay.

    Prior to the British getting involved, India is estimated to have had the largest economy in the world with between one third and a quarter of the world’s wealth. I wonder what happened after that?

  12. bc says:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 6:20 pm

    Boerwar says Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 5:54 pm

    Most wars in the empire expansionary phase pay for the conquerer. The conquered pay. And pay. And pay.

    Prior to the British getting involved, India is estimated to have had the largest economy in the world with between one third and a quarter of the world’s wealth. I wonder what happened after that?’
    ———————–
    Great for Britain. Terrible for Indians.

  13. Extremists are extremists, whether they are AA or the Greens.
    They share a core problem: most of the nation will not have a bar of them.
    But they have this terrible situation: they KNOW they are the only ones who KNOW they are right 100% of the time.

  14. Boerwar @ #620 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 6:25 pm

    Extremists are extremists, whether they are AA or the Greens.
    They share a core problem: most of the nation will not have a bar of them.
    But they have this terrible situation: they KNOW they are the only ones who KNOW they are right 100% of the time.

    They appear to share that delusion with you.

    Odd, that 🙂


  15. Lordbainsays:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 5:29 pm
    Socrates, anyone who supported the iraq war should have been tarred, feathered, and then never allowed to discuss anything without a massive disclaimer of how they were a supporter of the single biggest geopolitical mistake of the 21st century (personally I would have gone further, but that’s just me)

    It is blunder of historic proportions because it completely destabilised Middle East. It is shame that George Bush and Tony Blair were not declared as war criminals and arrested for that. After Iraq war 2 started and destroyed Iraq, the West lost all moral authority to criticise any other war. I realised then that international rules based world order is created to benefit US an its allies and to be applied against countries, who are not their allies.


  16. davesays:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 5:32 pm
    Only a conservative would call the U.S Democrats ‘Left Wing’. I mean no doubt there are a few in there, but I always considered them closer to the Liberal party than the A.L.P.

    daveif I want to modify your post as below:
    Only a reactionary would call the U.S Democrats ‘Left Wing’. I mean no doubt there are a few in there, but I always considered them closer to the Liberal party than the A.L.P. 🙂

  17. Centre @ #573 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 4:25 pm

    Catmomma

    Keep an ear out for the CPI figures that will be released tomorrow.

    Most of the developed world is starting to lower rates as inflation retreats.

    It’s going to be a very bad look for Labor if the rates go up here. Is it possible that we are doing more than our share on climate change?

    Fair dinkum they’re going to swap Irish jokes for Aussie jokes around the world 😀

    Inflation went up in the last quarter in the US.

    Also, it would be great if you could explain to me how ‘doing more than our share on climate change’ is adding to inflation, when the increase in the cost of fossil fuels recently, one of the major causes of Climate Change, is what is actually fueling any increase in inflation?

  18. ‘Player One says:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 6:35 pm

    Boerwar @ #620 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 6:25 pm

    Extremists are extremists, whether they are AA or the Greens.
    They share a core problem: most of the nation will not have a bar of them.
    But they have this terrible situation: they KNOW they are the only ones who KNOW they are right 100% of the time.

    They appear to share that delusion with you.

    Odd, that ‘
    ===============
    Amazing, coming from someone who is notorious on Bludger for never being wRONg.

  19. Entropy @ #610 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 6:07 pm

    Butchersays:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 5:53 pm
    Boerwar you should join Advance Australia. The enemy of my enemy is my friend and all that.
    ============================================

    After only 24 hours of posting on here, so called “Butcher” attacks his third poster. It is like he had grievances against them, even before he started posting. Though maybe he just dislikes humanity in general, now what is the word for that again?

    Serving only for intellectual or emotional self-gratification. There is one word for that.


  20. bcsays:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 6:20 pm
    Boerwar says Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 5:54 pm

    Most wars in the empire expansionary phase pay for the conquerer. The conquered pay. And pay. And pay.

    Prior to the British getting involved, India is estimated to have had the largest economy in the world with between one third and a quarter of the world’s wealth. I wonder what happened after that?

    At the time of Indian independence, Indian economy reportedly was estimated to 2% of world’s economy.
    As per current estimates US $44 Trillion worth of wealth was transferred (some say looted) from India to Britain during British rule.

    “New research by the renowned economist Utsa Patnaik -just published by Columbia University Press – deals a crushing blow to this narrative. Drawing on nearly two centuries of detailed data on tax and trade, Patnaik calculated that Britain drained a total of nearly $45 trillion from India during the period 1765 to 1938.

    https://www.cadtm.org/spip.php?page=imprimer&id_article=16972#:~:text=New%20research%20by%20the%20renowned,the%20period%201765%20to%201938.”

  21. I’m guessing that’s not the roadblock. I’m thinking it is the packaging that is in short supply.
    ___________
    C@t
    That’s why I included packaging in the task. But what’s so difficult about the packaging?

  22. I know it’s been suggested before, but if inflation is high tomorrow then next week might be the time for the RBA to increase by 0.15%.

  23. The right-wing attempted humourists pondered where Airbus Albo was off to, but where is Deadbeat Dutton at the moment?
    At one point he was getting his starting orders from Gina (probably helping here with her world shattering ad on TV), or perhaps reading a Trump comic book for future reference, or maybe in Israel sucking up to a failed government there? Why is he out of the country at tax payers expense?

  24. C@tmomma says Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 6:56 pm

    We don’t have 30 years to wait. Anyway, by then Renewable Energy WILL be the cheapest source of energy.

    Renewable energy is already the cheapest source of energy.

  25. Ven says Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 6:40 pm

    It is blunder of historic proportions because it completely destabilised Middle East. It is shame that George Bush and Tony Blair were not declared as war criminals and arrested for that. After Iraq war 2 started and destroyed Iraq, the West lost all moral authority to criticise any other war. I realised then that international rules based world order is created to benefit US an its allies and to be applied against countries, who are not their allies.

    The area being well known for its stability prior to this invasion.

    Note, I’m not defending the invasion. It was an almighty blunder. But, the region would probably be a far more stable place if things had been handled differently by the British and French after the WW1.

  26. ‘Player One says:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 7:07 pm

    Boerwar @ #628 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 6:52 pm

    Amazing, coming from someone who is notorious on Bludger for never being wRONg.

    You missed the essential point that in your case it is a delusion.

    In my case, I thought I was wrong once – but I was mistaken ‘
    ———————-
    Projection does you no favours.

  27. Ven
    We are on the same page. We just had a Greens who HAD to convince themselves that war doesn’t pay. They MUST do this because otherwise they would look like total fools with their plan to destroy the ADF.

  28. the main point is that tourism generates 8% of the worlds CO2.
    Tourism smashes biodiversity.
    Tourism uses huge amounts of housing which could be used to solve the world’s homeless problem.
    Travel miles, materials miles, food miles, land clearing and infrastructure builds all contribute.
    Eco resorts are, of course, green washers.
    Tourism is entirely a matter of personal consumption – mostly by the world’s wealthiest people.
    Today’s tourism CO2 will still be in the atmosphere in 2200.
    #2.5+

  29. I’m going to continue travelling by plane and ship and car as much as I like for as long as I can. And train. Love trains but have to fly to most places with one’s worth riding.

  30. Talking of the British rule of India: Illusions of empire: Amartya Sen on what British rule really did for India

    As the historian William Dalrymple has observed: “The economic figures speak for themselves. In 1600, when the East India Company was founded, Britain was generating 1.8% of the world’s GDP, while India was producing 22.5%. By the peak of the Raj, those figures had more or less been reversed: India was reduced from the world’s leading manufacturing nation to a symbol of famine and deprivation.”

    British governance of India began with the famine of 1769-70, and there were regular famines in India throughout the duration of British rule. The Raj also ended with the terrible famine of 1943. In contrast, there has been no famine in India since independence in 1947.

    It’s an interesting read.

  31. Tricot says:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 7:08 pm

    You don’t give a shit about tax payers expense- your Government is spending $40 million telling us we got tax cuts, for fuck’s sake.

  32. BK @ #633 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 7:04 pm

    I’m guessing that’s not the roadblock. I’m thinking it is the packaging that is in short supply.
    ___________
    C@t
    That’s why I included packaging in the task. But what’s so difficult about the packaging?

    BK,
    From the RACGP:

    ‘The shortages are due to multiple factors including global supply limitations, unexpected increases in demand, and manufacturing issues,’ it said.

    Kind of what I expected to be the problem.

    They also have highly specialised packaging and are designed to be compatible with intravenous giving sets to allow the fluids to be injected into a person’s veins.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/27/australia-is-facing-a-shortage-of-crucial-intravenous-iv-fluids-what-does-it-mean-and-who-will-be-affected

  33. FUBAR @ #646 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 7:26 pm

    Tricot says:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 7:08 pm

    You don’t give a shit about tax payers expense- your Government is spending $40 million telling us we got tax cuts, for fuck’s sake.

    Remind us how much Scotty from Marketing spent on ads over his time in government? Then get back to us with valid criticism of Labor. 😐

  34. This CPI figure tomorrow is as anticipated as a pre-election Newspoll. Amazeballs.

    If its bad 1.0-1.1 it guarantees another week of bad headlines for the govt until the RBA meeting on 6 August.

    It’s ironic how the decisions in the first hubris of victory often become nemesis for Governments.


  35. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 7:33 pm
    FUBAR @ #646 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 7:26 pm

    Tricot says:
    Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 7:08 pm

    You don’t give a shit about tax payers expense- your Government is spending $40 million telling us we got tax cuts, for fuck’s sake.

    Remind us how much Scotty from Marketing spent on ads over his time in government? Then get back to us with valid criticism of Labor.

    Only LNP governments can advertised. Apparently. 🙂

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