While they are yet to chalk one up in Newspoll, Coalition two-party poll leads are seemingly becoming less uncommon, as the BludgerTrack poll trend measure (see sidebar) maintains its long slow trajectory in their favour:
• RedBridge Group has a federal poll that credits the Coalition with a two-party preferred lead of 51.5-48.5, compared with a Labor lead of 52-48 at the last such poll in April, and the first lead for the Coalition out of the seven such polls RedBridge has conducted this term. The primary votes are Labor 32% (down one), Coalition 41% (up four) and Greens 11% (down one). The poll was conducted July 10 to 19 from a sample of 1505.
• I neglected to record the result of the weekly Roy Morgan poll this week, so let the record note it found the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred (though with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on the pollster’s own calculation using preference flows from 2022), out from 50.5-49.5 last week. The primary votes were Labor 31.5% (up half), Coalition 39.5% (up two), Greens 13% (up half) and One Nation 5% (steady). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1752.
Preselection news:
• Rhiannon Shine of the ABC reports Mia Davies, former leader of the state Nationals, has confirmed she will seek the party’s preselection for the new federal seat of Bullwinkel, encompasses Perth’s eastern hinterland and the Avon Valley region.
• With Linda Burney announcing her imminent retirement from politics, James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph reports former New South Wales upper house member Shaoquett Moselmane will seek preselection for her southern Sydney seat of Barton. Moselmane failed to retain preselection at the 2023 state election after facing pressure over links to figures connected with the Chinese Communist Party, which resulted in his home being raided in ASIO, and has lately called on Labor to recognise a Palestinian state. Also announcing his retirement last week was Brendan O’Connor, creating a Labor vacancy at the next election for his safe western Melbourne seat of Gorton.
• The Nationals candidate for the western New South Wales seat of Calare will be Sam Farraway, who has held a seat for the party in the state Legislative Council since 2019. Andrew Gee has held the seat as an independent since resigning from the party in December 2022.
• Paul Garvey of The Australian reports Jan Norberger, the sole nominee for Liberal preselection in the Perth seat of Pearce, quit the party a year ago for an unsuccessful Senate preselection bid with Australian Christians, then returned to it afterwards. Norberger held the state seat of Joondalup for the Liberals from 2013 to 2017.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports the Greens will target the Labor-held Brisbane seats of Moreton and Lilley at the next election, and that former LNP member Trevor Evans is “seriously considering” running again in Brisbane, which he lost to the Greens in 2022.
The cabinet reshuffle is a great example of why Albanese’s and the ALP’s popularity has eroded. He removed two apparently very capable ministers who were doing a fine job to other ministries for no reason other than setting up better functioning ministries overall. Who does he think believes this? even the faithful know it is bullshit, O’Neil and Giles know it, Burney definitely knows it that is for sure. He has just lost a little more skin, he has shown again that he is weak. Just typical Albo.
I admired Burney, disagreed with nearly everything she thought would work but you could just tell she was a good human being, all the hatred she would have had to endure and yet always seemed above all the ugly stuff, a classy old school lady.
Advance Australia are going to spend their million dollar war chest to convince 35 year old mums not to vote Greens because they are Australia’s “biggest threat to freedom, security and prosperity” and are “anti-capitalist” and “anti-Judeo Christian values”.
Good luck with that David Adler.
“The Greens have a very strong brand and while it’s built on a lie, it’s very powerful and it’s sucking people in,” he told the event organised by the conservative-leaning political group, the Australian Jewish Association.
Advance Australia and the Australian Jewish Association –
“Latest campaigns include supporting Israel and exposing the danger of the policies of The Greens.
Expect Advance to be very active in the lead up to the Federal election.
AJA President Dr David Adler is a foundation member of the Advance advisory board.”
jewishassociation.org.au
Trump campaign sent this email Yesterday(Monday USA time).
Notice that they still mention “Sleepy Joe” even after Biden stepped down from race
https://cdn.prod.dailykos.com/images/1327813/large/IMG_9544.jpeg?1722276253
An awful organisation Butcher, importing that most poisonous us export… culture wars.
Even if you hate the greens as some posters here do, you would have to be insane to support a group like advance…
Collingwood is facing a fresh racism scandal, with chief executive Craig Kelly accused of joking about putting a “live f***ing possum” in a special room for Indigenous players and calling an Aboriginal elder a “dumb old bitch”.
In explosive court documents, Mr Kelly is accused of a series of racial slurs and physical assaults by the club’s former head of First Nations strategy Mark Cleaver, a “Palawa person” who was engaged by the Magpies in the wake of the 2021 “Do Better” crisis. The documents were filed with the Federal Circuit and Family Court of Australia on Monday.
In addition to the accusations of Indigenous slurs, Mr Cleaver claimed that Mr Kelly also joked about sending a photograph of a ‘Free Palestine’ sign to a Jewish colleague to wind her up.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/collingwood-ceo-in-bombshell-new-racism-scandal/news-story/8c4eb2e5fbd59d485b83e0de7fdc72f7?amp
SA Greens blindsided by ‘unf*** the future’ flyer distributed in Adelaide:
The front page in bold lettering said “Unf*** the future – use your vote to tackle the climate crisis & fix inequality”, while the back page said, “Face it, unless we do something different, the future is a bit f***ed”.
“The old blokes in suits are just filling their pockets with big donations from billionaires and big corporations,” it said.
The flyer was reportedly handed out by a Greens representative at the Fullarton Market in Adelaide at the weekend where the party’s candidate for the federal electorate of Sturt, Katie McCuster, was also present.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-30/sa-greens-flyer-controversy-adelaide-federal-election/104158976
If those allegations are true then Craig Kelly will be managed out.
At this stage, I’m predicting that the RBA will leave the rates on hold. We will know a lot more tomorrow with the release of the CPI figures.
Interest rates are the only trigger available to the RBA to tame inflation. If the RBA is forced to act on monetary policy, then it’s the fault of the government of the day for not doing their lifting with fiscal policy.
If the next move on rates is up, don’t blame the RBA, blame your hero Albanese and the Labor government.
It’s an abrogation of responsibility for the Govt to be leaving struggling young families to the cold hearted decisions of the RBA – and all about avoiding hard political decisions.
Jim Chalmers has declared that his last budget was not inflationary. If the RBA is forced to act, curtains for Labor, hello Prime Minister Dutton!
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 3:37 pm
SA Greens blindsided by ‘unf*** the future’ flyer distributed in Adelaide:
The front page in bold lettering said “Unf*** the future – use your vote to tackle the climate crisis & fix inequality”, while the back page said, “Face it, unless we do something different, the future is a bit f***ed”.
“The old blokes in suits are just filling their pockets with big donations from billionaires and big corporations,” it said….’
—————
Classy.
The Greens are trying to sucker naive voters into believing that the Greens will deliver Zero Net Forty. This is on par with Dutton’s nuclear fairy tale.
The Thug and his Toolie… whatever it takes.
We’ve had subzero temperatures in eastern Australia today.
The greenies and the climate activists knew what they were doing by changing the name of global warming to climate change – I’ll hand it to them!
Centre @ #563 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 4:00 pm
Oh look – another dill who can’t understand the difference between ‘weather’ and ‘climate’ 🙁
I think the Greens could deliver Zero Net Forty if they were in government.
They’d smash Keating’s 17% interest rates and the recession we had to have for dead.
Hell, they’d end capitalism 🙂
Player One
You’d be the first to attribute summer 45 degree temperatures to climate change.
You can’t have it both ways – hypocrite!
^ the confidence on display here is a sight to behold
If you didn’t know that this was an Australian site, you would think that it is a US one, infested by US Lefties.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/30/australia-support-donald-trump-peter-dutton-election
Dutton@Trump
Centre @ #560 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 3:52 pm
And the way that you can prove that something the Treasurer did in his last Budget was inflationary, is?
Oh, and you should never vote for Peter Dutton then because he was a very senior Minister in the previous Coalition government of ~ 10 years who gave us the inflation that Labor are fighting to control.
I mean, you want to be internally consistent in your logic, don’t you Centre? If you want to throw around accusations like the one above. 😐
The term “Climate Change” is a George W Bush-ism, invented to minimise what was happening. After all, as those who deny global heating always reassure us, “the climate is always changing”.
Centre @ #566 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 4:09 pm
No. And you know why not? Because I understand the difference between ‘weather’ and ‘climate’.
Here, let me try and explain it to you in your own terms:
An occasional 45 degree summer is probably ‘weather’.
But when the average summer hits 45 degrees, that’s probably ‘climate’.
Got it?
Catmomma
Keep an ear out for the CPI figures that will be released tomorrow.
Most of the developed world is starting to lower rates as inflation retreats.
It’s going to be a very bad look for Labor if the rates go up here. Is it possible that we are doing more than our share on climate change?
Fair dinkum they’re going to swap the Irish jokes for Aussie jokes around the world 😀
And of course Centre’s the type of person to make “irish” jokes… what a tosspot, and a waste for anyone to engage with
Latest Morgan.
Labor has slight edge if election today as both major parties lose primary support: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%
https://roymorganresearch.cmail20.com/t/j-l-gjujldl-ouhituihd-r/
Does anyone here have any insight into the state of play for the upcoming ACT election?
Peter Dutton needs to explain why did he need to go to Israel, while majority of Australians are under cost of living pressures.
Lordbain
Chill my friend.
Gotta go, catch ya later 🙂
Right Wing (aka Centre) 3:52pm
Chalmers was correct. It is absurd to suggest the last Labor budget was inflationary because it forecast a net surplus in government spending. That is, taxes removed from the economy will exceed government spending in 2024.
You can debate parts of the budget you don’t like, but you can’t (credibly) call a budget inflationary when it results in a net drop in the amount of money in circulation. That reduces inflation.
No doubt Chalmers left the budget (just) in surplus precisely to defeat this sort of criticism. Obviously, some ignorant of Economics 101 will criticise regardless.
The amount of sense Centre is talking is a miracle for someone who frequents this site, speaking from experience.
Soc:
As someone who understands economics 101, let me tell you that you are wrong.
It is not only the amount of money in circulation, but where it sits. Yes there is less money, but where does the remaining money shift to? Into the hands of consumers that are more willing for it to be spent, thanks to the cuts.
The RBA is probably about to rise, and you still suggest the tax cuts didn’t have an effect due to a windfall surplus? Maybe we wouldn’t be in the situation without high-k tax cuts. That’s what economics 101 says.
On AUKUS, noted Iraq War proponent Ross Babbage at the Lowy Institute proceeds to erect a series of straw men to defend AUKUS.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/deterrence-alliance-power-why-aukus-submarines-matter-how-they-can-be-delivered#footnoteref28_1sct8gc
Bernard Keane in Crikey then proceeds to knock them over.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/07/30/aukus-fiscal-crime-propaganda-ross-babbage/
Defenders of AUKUS seem blind to the fact that they are defending criticisms nobody else is making, but avoiding the harder questions critics are making. Keating would call it Kabuki journalism.
CLP’s Shane Doherty refuses to resign after blaming DV victims over violent relationships
LIAM MENDES
The Australian
A former vice president of the Country Liberal Party has been asked to resign from the party after blaming domestic violence victims for remaining in violent relationships and has since doubled down on his claims, saying domestic violence is ‘quite often a love dance’.
CLP campaign manager Steve Doherty is refusing to step down after CLP president Shane Stone personally called upon him to quit following the controversial comments in which he said women should “take some personal responsibility for their own lives”.
“I’m not resigning, they’ll have to boot me out or drag me out of the place. We’ve always been known to be a broad church, we’re allowed to cross the floor, we highly value opposing views, its free speech, is democratic method that underpins western civilization. Free speech cancel culture reigns supreme, DV is not always one sided long term abuse, quite often it is a ‘love dance’,” he said.
NT opposition DV spokesman Steve Edgington stood down in March after it was revealed he knowingly hired a serial domestic violence perpetrator.
“I am sick of men bashing,” he said. “I am sick of demonising the man making it easier and easier to break up the nuclear family and put everyone on welfare.” He criticised Anthony Albanese for pledging $1bn towards helping women leaving violent relationships, claiming “repeat offenders” were possibly “gaming the system”.
Mr Doherty said he was considering running for CLP pre-selection in as the candidate for Solomon.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/clps-shane-doherty-refuses-to-resign-after-blaming-dv-victims-over-violent-relationships/news-story/3f0ce528ad128a694f6af438e923b885
It would seem the CLP and the Coalition have a long way to go before they can claim to have flushed out the misogynist fossils that dominate their attitude to the place and treatment of women in this century. This guy is the Territory election campaign manager and he wants to stand for the Federal seat of Solomon. If Dutton and Littleproud do nothing and say nothing about this bloke it will be totally unsurprising to me.
‘Sandman says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 5:21 pm
CLP’s Shane Doherty refuses to resign after blaming DV victims over violent relationships
LIAM MENDES
The Australian…’
——————
It does not look like the Coalition has any interest at all in understanding why it managed to generate a small swathe of Teal seats.
We should paint the submarines yellow and then the homeless could live in them – a long way away from the rest of us so we don’t have to look at them.
“As we live a life of ease
Every one of us
Has all we need
Sky of blue
And sea of green
In our yellow
Submarine”
nadia88:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 9:45 am
[‘Anyway, for me, I am dropping off the site. It has been fun this past 18 months or so, but this past 5 weeks has turned into a bit of a combat zone, and no longer for me.’]
It’s a damn shame that you’ve decided to pull the pin on this site. As I’ve said previously, I’ve found you to be very good value & I’m sure quite a number of others share my view, including, if I may be so bold, WB. You’re never combative, snarky, or pretentious. Please reconsider your decision, and perhaps, as Entropy has suggested, return nearer to the Qld & US elections. Take care until then.
Socrates, anyone who supported the iraq war should have been tarred, feathered, and then never allowed to discuss anything without a massive disclaimer of how they were a supporter of the single biggest geopolitical mistake of the 21st century (personally I would have gone further, but that’s just me)
out of sortssays:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 5:18 pm
Soc:
As someone who understands economics 101, let me tell you that you are wrong.
It is not only the amount of money in circulation, but where it sits. Yes there is less money, but where does the remaining money shift to? Into the hands of consumers that are more willing for it to be spent, thanks to the cuts.
The RBA is probably about to rise, and you still suggest the tax cuts didn’t have an effect due to a windfall surplus? Maybe we wouldn’t be in the situation without high-k tax cuts. That’s what economics 101 says.
—
That is NOT what Treasury said about the impact of tax cuts in interest rates- they said it would NOT impact on interest rates. But your the economics 101 expert. Aha.
Only a conservative would call the U.S Democrats ‘Left Wing’. I mean no doubt there are a few in there, but I always considered them closer to the Liberal party than the A.L.P.
Shame about nadia88.
I actually think bludger has been less combative the last few days after a recent departure.
Which treasury soc? Oh that’s right, the ones that sold the tax cuts. Entirely believable.
Latest Jon Stewart monologue is out on YouTube. Funny stuff.
Lordbain 5:31pm
Agreed re Iraq War, which is why I mentioned it in relation to Babbage.
The tragedy of the Iraq war was that it was so predictably a failure. I attended a protest march against it, like tens of thousands of Australians, before it was started.
Many warned in 2002/03 how invading Iraq would turn out and they were correct. Labor leader Simon Crean was notable among them.
Now we are supposed to hear these same individuals convince us AUKUS is a good idea 😐
I too hope Nadia88 comes back.
Nadia88 is a diligent poster and I only responded to her this morning because facts matter to her.
Hopefully she will return.
All these former politicians getting in on the Defence consultancy racket…
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 5:33 pm
Shame about nadia88.
I actually think bludger has been less combative the last few days after a recent departure.
_______________
I agree. A most disagreeable individual whose loss is not even lamented by other Labor partisans it seems.
The Iraq War was the best war ever. It paid for itself.
“The likely economic effects [of a war in Iraq] would be relatively small…. Under every plausible scenario, the negative effect will be quite small relative to the economic benefits.”
Lawrence Lindsey
White House economic adviser
September 16, 2002
“There is a lot of money to pay for this that doesn’t have to be US taxpayer money, and it starts with the assets of the Iraqi people. We are talking about a country that can really finance its own reconstruction and relatively soon.”
Paul Wolfowitz
Deputy Secretary of Defense
testifying before the defense subcommittee
of the House Appropriations Committee
March 27, 2003
‘Butcher says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 5:28 pm
We should paint the submarines yellow and then the homeless could live in them – a long way away from the rest of us so we don’t have to look at them.
“As we live a life of ease
Every one of us
Has all we need
Sky of blue
And sea of green
In our yellow
Submarine”’
—————-
It is a pity the Greens are so assiduous about astroturfing against housing developments in their electorates. Still, a vote is a vote is a vote.
Centresays:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 4:09 pm
Player One
You’d be the first to attribute summer 45 degree temperatures to climate change.
You can’t have it both ways – hypocrite!
==================================================
Centre would declare it summer every time he saw a swallow. While back in the real world, actual global average temperatures are increasing.
https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-analysis-confirms-2023-as-warmest-year-on-record/