While they are yet to chalk one up in Newspoll, Coalition two-party poll leads are seemingly becoming less uncommon, as the BludgerTrack poll trend measure (see sidebar) maintains its long slow trajectory in their favour:
• RedBridge Group has a federal poll that credits the Coalition with a two-party preferred lead of 51.5-48.5, compared with a Labor lead of 52-48 at the last such poll in April, and the first lead for the Coalition out of the seven such polls RedBridge has conducted this term. The primary votes are Labor 32% (down one), Coalition 41% (up four) and Greens 11% (down one). The poll was conducted July 10 to 19 from a sample of 1505.
• I neglected to record the result of the weekly Roy Morgan poll this week, so let the record note it found the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred (though with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on the pollster’s own calculation using preference flows from 2022), out from 50.5-49.5 last week. The primary votes were Labor 31.5% (up half), Coalition 39.5% (up two), Greens 13% (up half) and One Nation 5% (steady). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1752.
Preselection news:
• Rhiannon Shine of the ABC reports Mia Davies, former leader of the state Nationals, has confirmed she will seek the party’s preselection for the new federal seat of Bullwinkel, encompasses Perth’s eastern hinterland and the Avon Valley region.
• With Linda Burney announcing her imminent retirement from politics, James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph reports former New South Wales upper house member Shaoquett Moselmane will seek preselection for her southern Sydney seat of Barton. Moselmane failed to retain preselection at the 2023 state election after facing pressure over links to figures connected with the Chinese Communist Party, which resulted in his home being raided in ASIO, and has lately called on Labor to recognise a Palestinian state. Also announcing his retirement last week was Brendan O’Connor, creating a Labor vacancy at the next election for his safe western Melbourne seat of Gorton.
• The Nationals candidate for the western New South Wales seat of Calare will be Sam Farraway, who has held a seat for the party in the state Legislative Council since 2019. Andrew Gee has held the seat as an independent since resigning from the party in December 2022.
• Paul Garvey of The Australian reports Jan Norberger, the sole nominee for Liberal preselection in the Perth seat of Pearce, quit the party a year ago for an unsuccessful Senate preselection bid with Australian Christians, then returned to it afterwards. Norberger held the state seat of Joondalup for the Liberals from 2013 to 2017.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports the Greens will target the Labor-held Brisbane seats of Moreton and Lilley at the next election, and that former LNP member Trevor Evans is “seriously considering” running again in Brisbane, which he lost to the Greens in 2022.
Morning Consult poll
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Harris leads Trump: Harris leads Trump, 47% to 46%. Her share of support is up 1 percentage point from last week and exceeds the highest level of backing we gauged for Biden (45%) in tracking that goes back to late 2022.
Third-party support erodes: Just 4% of voters say they’d vote for someone besides Trump and Harris if the election were held today, which is the smallest share we’ve tracked all cycle and continues a steady decline from our final Biden-Trump head-to-head matchup, when 8% said they’d vote for a minor party option.
Harris’ popularity climbs to record high: Half of voters view Harris favorably (up from 43% last week), while 46% hold unfavorable opinions (down from 51%). That net 12-point swing since last week was driven mostly by large upticks in favorability among Democrats (from 80% to 89%) and independents (from 31% to 48%), and Harris’ 4-point net favorability is a higher rating than Biden or Trump have posted all cycle.
Harris basks in the honeymoon: In the first week of Harris’ campaign, voters were 12 points more likely to say they heard something positive (47%) than negative (35%) about her. That net buzz rating also comfortably eclipses Trump’s and Biden’s previous highs on the metric for the cycle.
https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling
Wonder if some of Harris’s magic dust could rub off on Albo.
Get on that plane Anthony!
https://x.com/crikey_news/status/1818122903092707523 and fiscally irresponsible, https://www.adfcareers.gov.au/, not much on defend, deploy, die
I’m sure Advance Australia has a deep enough understanding of what motivates middle aged, left leaning women enough to shift their votes. Obviously a very effective use of money…..
sprocket_says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 1:20 pm
Morning Consult poll
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Harris leads Trump: Harris leads Trump, 47% to 46%. Her share of support is up 1 percentage point from last week and exceeds the highest level of backing we gauged for Biden (45%) in tracking that goes back to late 2022.
=======================================================
You’ll always have May, Badthinker.
Lyrics:
“That’s life (that’s life)
That’s what all the people say
You’re riding high in April, shot down in May
But I know I’m gonna change that tune
When I’m back on top, back on top in June”
“The announcement is targeting a million Female soft Green voters.”
The Teals and Climate 200 will be happy to hear that. 🙂
Skysays:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 1:28 pm
I’m sure Advance Australia has a deep enough understanding of what motivates middle aged, left leaning women enough to shift their votes. Obviously a very effective use of money…..
==================================================
A far right group telling a left leaning women they know what motivates them. Is always going to be a winner, i suspect. Just not in the way they think it will.
At the last federal election, the Greens received about 1.8 million HoR votes. The idea that 1 million of them could be ‘soft female’ is a little unlikely. A million might be female, but only a small chunk of that would be soft.
PaulTu @ #499 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 1:12 pm
Ya gotta blame our resident serial obsessive for destroying the tourism industry single-handed. Soon, our only remaining industry will be Fossil Fuels. Job done. 🙂
I do hope MB has noted Trump’s the latest dementia symptom-laden interview.
Slurring. Really quite bad in parts.
Trump makes some weird conceptual ‘connection’ between a cashless society and Harris wanting to release murderers on day 1 – setting aside that the bit about Harris being an outright lie.
Making several contradictory statements about the state of the head-to-head polling.
Trump’s also forgotten the previous reason he gave for refusing to debate Harris.
This is a Fox interview. They usually do a cut and paste and cut out the bits showing his dementia. Maybe they are finding it more and more difficult to find the non demented bits.
The AA target would almost certainly be lower income males in the outer burbs. There is no particular reason to believe their public statements. They amplified Dutton’s lies during the Referendum.
Dutton@Trump.
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 1:44 pm
The AA target would almost certainly be lower income males in the outer burbs. There is no particular reason to believe their public statements. They amplified Dutton’s lies during the Referendum.
Dutton@Trump.
=================================================
Let’s hope AA go for Pocock in the ACT senate again. That was really successful last time.
‘Player One says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 1:39 pm
PaulTu @ #499 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 1:12 pm
It would be sad to see Rex Airlines fail. Bonza was always a dead airline flying.
Ya gotta blame our resident serial obsessive for destroying the tourism industry single-handed. Soon, our only remaining industry will be Fossil Fuels. Job done. ‘
———————-
There is something quite odd about a serial obsessive refusing to acknowledge that demand-led tourism flying emissions of CO2 is set to double over the next decade.
Apparently the tourists would all walk if only the fossil fuel industry stopped supplying them with Avgas.
Apart from the profits – which on a global basis are stupendous – the Hara Kiri Tourism industry’s CO2 emissions helped achieve a GBR bleaching event of around 73%.
Their solution?
More tourism flights.
What could possibly go wrong?
Had a look at the AA website. They are openly RWNJobbies and Cookers, and seem proud of it.
I think their membership list needs to go on the record for re-education purposes after the revolution. 🙂
‘Entropy says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 1:47 pm
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 1:44 pm
The AA target would almost certainly be lower income males in the outer burbs. There is no particular reason to believe their public statements. They amplified Dutton’s lies during the Referendum.
Dutton@Trump.
=================================================
Let’s hope AA go for Pocock in the ACT senate again. That was really successful last time.’
————————————-
The erstwhile Liberals I know who were revolted by the Morrison/Dutton government corruption, racism and misogyny into voting for Pocock will, I believe, stay with Pocock in the next election.
Pocock has parleyed his personal BOP into something they can live with. Should Babet corner that role in the next Senate things might loosen up a bit.
AA is wasting its time in the ACT.
The economy continues to tread water. When factoring in population growth, June GDP figures imply a net drop in per capita incomes. Stephen Koukoulas sums it up:
“Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk·28m
June qtr GDP call out:
The partial data – building blocks – for June qtr GDP result (released 4 September) point to growth of ~0.2% for the quarter. Could be less.
Staggeringly, this will leave annual GDP growth of 0.8%.
Fancy advocating rate hikes with this growth performance?”
Socrates, should we start a pool on hike, hold or cut?
Soc
Just watching the for sales and for rent signs on office blocks in the Canberra CBD I am not at all surprised that the growth rate is so anaemic.
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 2:02 pm
Soc
Just watching the for sales and for rent signs on office blocks in the Canberra CBD I am not at all surprised that the growth rate is so anaemic.
=====================================================
Some of that is due to the work from home trend that began under Covid. Many businesses have realises. If a large number of their office workers, work from home. They really don’t need to rent so much CBD office space. A lot more of this office space will be converted into flats for inner city living in the next few years. As working from the home office is here to stay now.
The federal lib/nats and lib/nats propaganda media units politicaly would not want to see interest rate cuts
Maybe why Peter Dutton left Australia again , bad news for the federal lib/nats
Entropy says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 2:07 pm
‘Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 2:02 pm
Soc
Just watching the for sales and for rent signs on office blocks in the Canberra CBD I am not at all surprised that the growth rate is so anaemic.
=====================================================
Some of that is due to the work from home trend that began under Covid….’
————–
Agreed.
Boerwar
It is a similar story in part o the Adelaide CBD. Suburban shopping strips are doing better, but the low activity, combined with work rom home, is still really hurting city businesses.
Entropy
Exactly right about converting spare city office space to residential. Can’t be done soon enough. Even in Manhattan they have changed zoning laws to facilitate it.
If there is another rate hike, Chalmers has to talk to the RBA and redraft the policy they are following. It would be insane.
Quentin Rountreesays:
at 12:23 pm
Listen badthinker if you want to get the women vote maybe realise that are not every woman wants to have family person
You’ve found a woman that doesn’t want a family?
Great Scott, Quentin!!
What’s next, finding a live Tasmanian Tiger?
Exactly right about converting spare city office space to residential.
Been done in Brisbane for years.
International student accomodation now, just fitout, risers unchanged because not self contained flats.
Doesn’t help the housing crisis, thougfh.
“ Socrates, should we start a pool on hike, hold or cut?”
If I were a betting man .. the head says hold, the heart says cut but the cynic in me suspects that the monetarists in the reserve bank will consider hiking … and thereby punish the wrong people for inflationary pressures that are beyond their level of individual responsibility (also not actually targeting the people and structure constraints that actually ARE responsible for the inflationary pressures we are currently experiencing).
AE, we rarely agree on anything outside of Churchill and AUKUS, but once again… I fear you are bang on the money
Badthinker I’ll say this very slowly to you not every woman wants to be a mother also calling them females are really weird but I am pretty sure advance Australia knows how to talk to left leaning women
It has been a wonderful start for Harris and her campaign and dreadful week for Trump and JD Vance.
Read the below article.
Sprocket has been posting various polls.
Confessions has been posting about the Democratic supporters enthusiasm andother stuff.
C@tmomma posted links to various podcasts about Democratic opinion writers
TK and WT cautioning us not to get over excited about the current events although it is a encouraging start.
If Badthinker is a Democratic supporter, he would post these things because Democrats usually deal with facts( but Badthinker is not that and hence the result is BT current and past posts)
This article is a distillation of various facts that happened last week. There are multiple sections in the article and I will posts them as s continuous stream because many may not read the article.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/29/2259046/-Trump-s-awful-week-gets-capped-by-a-worse-weekend?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
“Last week was brutal for Donald Trump.
The weekend brought him no respite.
President Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race has created a powerful release that has caught everyone by surprise, even the Kamala Harris presidential campaign.
“We did not expect we would have cat lady news cycles,” a Harris campaign aide told The Washington Post. “This is organically happening without us pushing. … I’ve never seen anything like it. It’s so weird.”
”
Me: That “weird” has been “Wonderful weird” not the “Nasty weird” of Trump and JD Vance (Badthinker, FUBAR and PP).
“That campaign aide was speaking specifically about Trump running mate JD Vance, but really, you can say that about the entire campaign. Trump isn’t just under siege from an energized Democratic base and a media that has become shockingly competent overnight in covering the race. Even more so, he’s under siege from the culture. The campaign has become a meme, and Trump-Vance are the butt of its jokes. “
IMO rates will be a hold until more data comes in.
The Oz Travel Advisories for Lebanon have been amped up.
It would indeed. I dont like this separation of powers here. Not a jot. There needs to be some level of (a return to) coordinated effort rather than what appears to be a blindfolded push me pull you. And there needs to be accountability. The ALP in government are accountable. But the RBA peeps are not.
It seems utterly nuts that one unelected unaccountable person can pull a lever that can send hundreds of thousands into the red and the economy into a recession simply because of a dogmatic number that is breached due to circumstances unrelated to that lever.
Having a look at the 10 year history of the cash rate is quite interesting.
It is quite clear to me that the reserve bank was far too slow to lift the cash rate from the covid era 0.1% ‘emergency levels’ of 2020 and 2021;
When the Reserve finally did move it did so too slowly and then moved the cash rate far too high. The Bank was using its one lever to fight pressures that were brought about by constraints that the lever could not possibly address.
In my view the Bank should have increased the cash rate to 1% in February 2022, and move at 0.5% increases until it got to 2% in April. It then should have paused until July 2022 until the political electoral cycle had finalised and perhaps had no more than one increase of about 0.25% since then.
In short rates are now 2% higher than what they should be and the inflation fight should be up to the government to address the underpinning structural constraints within the economy.
L’arse likes to blame Labor for interest rates. As usual he is talking out of both sides of his mouth: on the one hand he also blames Labor for not moving fast enough on housing, even though the constraints in the housing sector preclude a rapid roll out of extra housing supply and even if a more rapid response would mean speaking more money now – which would be perceived by the Reserve to be inflationary and hence triggering another round of rate hikes.
On the other side of his mouth L’arse appears to imply that Labor should have run the austerity budgets that the opposition call for: even though that would mean less – not more – spending on government programs like housing.
Continuing from @2:41pm
“So let’s take a look at Trump’s delightfully brutal weekend.
• Trump’s fascism goes viral.
Speaking at Turning Point Action’s “Believers Summit” of Evangelical Christians in Florida on Saturday, Trump told attendees that, “You won’t have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what? It’ll be fixed, it’ll be fine. You won’t have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians.” The comments have gone mega viral.
It’s not the first time Trump has said something like that. Here he is on June 22 saying, “You gotta get out and vote. Just this time. In four years you don’t have to vote, okay? In four years don’t vote, I don’t care. But we’ll have it all straightened out, so it’ll be much different.”
The difference is, on June 22, the press was hyperfixated on Biden’s age and the growing chorus of prominent Democrats urging him to drop out. Now, the press is back to covering the broader campaign, and Trump can no longer escape scrutiny.
But even beyond that, his words get scarier, more menacing, more dictatorial by the day. On June 22, he seemed to be saying, “the hell with voting unless I’m on the ballot,” which I’m sure his Republican pals loved to hear. But the new formulation is basically, “I’m ending voting.” Trump can no longer confine those words inside his bubble. The broader electorate is finally paying attention.”
• Harris continues captivating the imagination of the electorate—and motivating Democrats and independents to work hard for her.
“Keith Boykin
@keithboykin
The enthusiasm gap in the 2024 presidential race has now been “entirely erased” by Kamala Harris. 88% of Democrats are enthusiastic for Harris compared to only 82% of Republicans for Trump. Even more impressive, nearly half of all independents are.
”
What’s even crazier about that poll is that 12% of Republicans are enthusiastic about Harris. Hello, Nikki Haley supporters! Come on over, the water is warm!”
Chalmers has badly misjudged by wanting to remove Govts reserve powers over the RBA.
The round 3 heats in the Olympic surfing from Teahupo’o in Tahiti were insane.
Definitely worth watching the replay if you can.
• JD Vance is suffering death by a thousand memes.
There is plenty of actual material to work with, and Vance is getting raked on policy grounds. But what’s amazing is that he’s the butt of jokes that literally have nothing to do with him. All the couch jokes and memes? Those are based on a Twitter joke about Vance writing in his seminal book “Hillbilly Elegy” that as a kid, he had sex with his couch. It’s not true, and it was debunked almost immediately, and it didn’t matter. The memesters and jokesters went to work, and the results have been devastating for Vance.
As John Oliver put it, “If you told me the reason you find coins in between couch cushions was because JD Vance always leaves a tip, I’d be like, ‘Yeah. That sounds right!’”
The culture is ravaging Vance (and Trump), and there’s nothing they can do about it.
”
You get the jist. There are many other sections like this the article I posted @2:41 pm
Unfortunately it looks like Maduro has rigged the Venezuelan Presidential election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election#Results
Results are very different to what the exit polls were saying, with Opposition candidate Gonzales on 65% of the vote.
Things very messy and unfortunate over there. It’s not currently clear if Maduro will get away with it.
Have you seen anything funnier than this? Trump is flailing
“Trump shouting “IGNORE THOSE PHONY POLLS UNLESS THEY’RE IN MY FAVOR” is the funniest thing I saw this weekend. “
AE
“ If I were a betting man .. the head says hold, the heart says cut but the cynic in me suspects that the monetarists in the reserve bank will consider hiking”
The fact that there are still monetarists on the RBA board is a sign of its intellectual decline. A completely discredited doctrine in economic theory and research.
J D Vance should name his next book “Hillbilly Fallacy”.
He has already mobilised America’s cat ladies against the Republicans.
I hope he goes after Taylor Swift next.
Radio silence from Lars regarding today’s Essential poll. It is like a bitter pill for him. 🙂
I don’t currently much care about the polls either way because we are still 9 months away from actual thing.
“The fact that there are still monetarists on the RBA board is a sign of its intellectual decline. A completely discredited doctrine in economic theory and research.”
_______
I wouldn’t go so far as that Socrates. However the Reserve Bank of today does resemble a bunch of Generals fighting a contemporary war based on the course and outcomes of the last war.
Trump is the one who is fake and phony.
His act is getting old.
“Radio silence from Lars regarding today’s Essential poll. It is like a bitter pill for him. ”
_____
We should put out our bats for L’arse. Poor poor L’arse.
• Harris announces an $200 million+ haul in her first week in the race.
Amazingly, 66% of her donors were first-time donors, and I’d venture a guess that the vast majority of them were small-dollar donors nowhere near maxing out. She’ll be able to easily double (if not triple) that amount in the coming months. The Harris campaign won’t have any financial troubles.
Furthermore, her campaign announced that she signed up 170,000 new volunteers, which are just as important—if not more so—than the cash. Much of that money will be pissed away on television ads that won’t do anything to move numbers. But the volunteers? That army will win us the election.
And speaking of the culture, her TikTok account gained 2.7 million new followers in a single day. In a tight election, everyone matters. But if those young Zoomers deliver their votes, it won’t even be close.
The JD Vance couch meme shows no sign of dissipating ..
Some good ones here https://www.dailydot.com/memes/vance-couch-meme/
Trump shouting “IGNORE THOSE PHONY POLLS UNLESS THEY’RE IN MY FAVOR” is the funniest thing I saw this weekend.
Unfortunately, that also goes for actual elections…
• Weird has taken hold.
“Vance is weird. Trump is weird.
About the only insult worse than “weird” might be “creepy,” and both of the men on the GOP ticket are that as well.
After spending decades trying to come up with a way to brand Republicans as effectively as Trump branded “Crooked Hillary,” the holy grail has been found. And for Republicans, the problem is that it’s true. Their obsession with sex is weird. Their archaic notions about the role of women and autonomy over their bodies is weird. Their dalliances with white supremacists and Nazis are weird. Their love for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is weird. Their hysteria over the Paris Olympics is weird. Much of what’s in Project 2025 is weird.
Yes, they’re obviously dangerous, but weird captures the zeitgeist far better than any alarmist language (no matter how justified).”
Me: But the thing is Trump and Vance weird is “nasty and dangerous weird” whereas Harris weird is “wonderful weird”
We don’t know how long this will last becaue human mind is fickle.
This is the same bloke who was responsible for the infamous secret side letter guaranteeing massive compensation for his E/W link mates.