While they are yet to chalk one up in Newspoll, Coalition two-party poll leads are seemingly becoming less uncommon, as the BludgerTrack poll trend measure (see sidebar) maintains its long slow trajectory in their favour:
• RedBridge Group has a federal poll that credits the Coalition with a two-party preferred lead of 51.5-48.5, compared with a Labor lead of 52-48 at the last such poll in April, and the first lead for the Coalition out of the seven such polls RedBridge has conducted this term. The primary votes are Labor 32% (down one), Coalition 41% (up four) and Greens 11% (down one). The poll was conducted July 10 to 19 from a sample of 1505.
• I neglected to record the result of the weekly Roy Morgan poll this week, so let the record note it found the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred (though with Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on the pollster’s own calculation using preference flows from 2022), out from 50.5-49.5 last week. The primary votes were Labor 31.5% (up half), Coalition 39.5% (up two), Greens 13% (up half) and One Nation 5% (steady). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1752.
Preselection news:
• Rhiannon Shine of the ABC reports Mia Davies, former leader of the state Nationals, has confirmed she will seek the party’s preselection for the new federal seat of Bullwinkel, encompasses Perth’s eastern hinterland and the Avon Valley region.
• With Linda Burney announcing her imminent retirement from politics, James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph reports former New South Wales upper house member Shaoquett Moselmane will seek preselection for her southern Sydney seat of Barton. Moselmane failed to retain preselection at the 2023 state election after facing pressure over links to figures connected with the Chinese Communist Party, which resulted in his home being raided in ASIO, and has lately called on Labor to recognise a Palestinian state. Also announcing his retirement last week was Brendan O’Connor, creating a Labor vacancy at the next election for his safe western Melbourne seat of Gorton.
• The Nationals candidate for the western New South Wales seat of Calare will be Sam Farraway, who has held a seat for the party in the state Legislative Council since 2019. Andrew Gee has held the seat as an independent since resigning from the party in December 2022.
• Paul Garvey of The Australian reports Jan Norberger, the sole nominee for Liberal preselection in the Perth seat of Pearce, quit the party a year ago for an unsuccessful Senate preselection bid with Australian Christians, then returned to it afterwards. Norberger held the state seat of Joondalup for the Liberals from 2013 to 2017.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports the Greens will target the Labor-held Brisbane seats of Moreton and Lilley at the next election, and that former LNP member Trevor Evans is “seriously considering” running again in Brisbane, which he lost to the Greens in 2022.
Motes meet beams.
Nadia, please don’t go. Your comments actually address the purpose of the blog.
Re current polls- at least they are not herding!
Just block out the trolls.
Boerwar: we get it. Tourism bad. Greens bad. (Here’s a hint, 80% of greens votes routinely go back to the ALP. Mine is one of them. I want the ALP to be better but I also can’t stand the thought of the LNP being in government. I am yet to meet a Greens member who would put the LNP ahead of the ALP. That 20% are disaffected liberals who want to park it somewhere on the way through. Wanting the ALP to be and do better is not supporting the LNP. Best to avoid alienating your allies.)
Butchersays:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 10:54 am
nadia88 says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 9:45 am
“Anyway, for me, I am dropping off the site.
It has been fun this past 18 months or so, but this past 5 weeks has turned into a bit of a combat zone, and no longer for me”
c@tmomma has just chased another person off this site.
====================================================
For someone who claims to only have started posting here yesterday. You seem extremely combative. You are obviously looking to make enemies on here from the start then. Though considering the nature of what was supposedly only the second post you have ever made here, which was directed at me. I should not be that surprised i guess.
Entropy
I have been lurking for a very long time and I know you all very well.
Taylormade @ #430 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 9:53 am
What a spiteful thing to say, Taylormade. I expect it though. Now, if you want to know the exact details, my son and I went to the Naval Historical Museum at Bremerton, on Puget Sound. Actually, it was Socrates who suggested I check it out, so we did.
So, whilst we were looking around a civilian marine electrician noticed our Australian accents and introduced himself to us and gave us the sort of guided tour that we would never had expected to get otherwise just from walking around. He was very helpful and knowledgeable and answered all our AUKUS questions because he was working on helping to set the new facilities up.
Now, if you don’t mind, as I know you will never apologise and never back down because you are a Liberal through and through, I would just ask you to try not and let your nasty side get the better of you because I know there is another nicer side to you.
nadia88says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 8:31 am
…
Seeing ON & GRN both dropped 5% over July, ALP picked up 5, COA 2. with Females.
Has the Barnaby Bullets/Ballots brouhaha landed in time to affect the PV?
Females have been trained to react in horror to Guns talk, Barnaby not helping.
Butcher @ #444 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 10:54 am
Nice try at blame shifting. But all I did was point out an error and that was characterised as nadia88 being ‘gobbed on’. Which you don’t mind someone saying about me I’m guessing?
C@T don’t pretend you didn’t go after Nadia on multiple occasions because they were discussing polling you disagreed with.
Don’t shoot the messenger maybe…
Mabwm
I am yet to meet a Greens member who would put the LNP ahead of the ALP.
No kidding?
I’ve met a few, what the Bligh Labor Government did to Public Hospitals still a sore point with Greens who work in that system.
nadia88says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 9:45 am
===================================
Nadia if you need a break take it but consider coming back for the Queensland and USA election latter in the year. I think the discussion at those times will probably be more to your liking. Currently the polls are not doing much. With one side crowing if one a poll moves slightly to them. Followed by the other side when the next poll moves slightly the other way. So you get a lot of meaningless commentary making mountains out of mole hills. Which is just negated when the next poll shows are different and probably just as meaningless trend. Basically lots of argument over movements within MOE.
‘Mabwm says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 11:13 am
Nadia, please don’t go. Your comments actually address the purpose of the blog.
Re current polls- at least they are not herding!
Just block out the trolls.
Boerwar: we get it. Tourism bad. Greens bad. (Here’s a hint, 80% of greens votes routinely go back to the ALP.
…’
————–
Not much use when your main game is destroying the ALP primary vote and building the vote of the Coalition and PHON.
Advance Australia going after the Greens for 2025
From the Guardian
Sun 28 Jul 2024 06.00 AEST
The Greens leader, Adam Bandt, considers it no less than a “badge of honour” to be in the crosshairs of conservative lobby group Advance Australia, as the countdown to Australia’s next federal election begins.
Advance will focus solely on “exposing” the Greens – a party it considers Australia’s “biggest threat to freedom, security and prosperity” – to swing voters, in a bid to scare off hundreds of thousands at the polls. Sheahan said the “toxic”, “anti-capitalist” Greens were now his group’s sole focus.
Advance’s approach would not be the incendiary ads voters have come to expect. Instead, they’ll start Advance’s approach will be to geo-target soft Greens voters – women aged between 33 and 49, Sheahan continued – to convince them the Greens aren’t the same party Brown founded 32 years ago.
‘We can drop [the Greens’] vote in the lower house by 2% and the Senate by 4%. That’s the target,’ says Advance Australia’s Matthew Sheahan. Advance is embarking on building its $5m war chest and has reportedly raised $1.5m.Sheahan said he believed Advance’s campaign would affect the “tactical” Greens and teal vote in key seats.
“Our target market is so small. We’re targeting a million people. And they can’t stop us getting a message to those people. If we’re going to spend money and deliver and get a message to a mum, who’s 35 in Adelaide who’s thinking about voting Greens at the next election, and we can get a message to her 16 times between now and the next election. That’s the sort of number that will change her mind”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/28/adam-bandt-says-greens-hitting-a-nerve-as-conservative-lobby-group-takes-aim
Most of us would be thinking Advance who, so what ? But the Guardian did note that this mob tipped $5 million dollars of advertising into the no campaign during the Voice Referendum which helped Dutton trash the momentum of the YES campaign.
Any campaign that points of the unintended consequences of Bandt’s “Robin Hood platform” gets a tick from me, even if it a conservative lobby group.
For example, the Greens plan to freeze rents for 2 years Prof Shaun Bond, from the University of Queensland Business School, said a freeze could cause a greater shortage of rental accommodation, “which is one of the key things that’s driving the increases in rents. It would create less incentive for landlords to hold rental properties and we may see less investment in the sector”.
So much the great defender of truth, justice and the Robin Hood way. Super Bandt is a joke.
20% of the Greens prefs go to the bad guys.
Thug says thank you very much.
Oh look, Sandman supports the same conservative group that’s bringing US culture war shit and trashed the voice… because it’s going after the greens. I mean sure, root for the guys who brought tucker calrosn over, host US Think tanks on anti woke meetings etc…
Something something fishhook something…
I see Elon is peddling fake propaganda against Harris.
Seems there’s a lot of money invested in a Trump win.
BW, how many Labor votes flow to the coalition/right wing as a percentage?
It amy blow whats left of your mind…
Seems Advance Australia is going to work for the fossil fuel cartel.
A very powerful pro-fossil fuel propaganda machine together with the L/NP and Labor PR teams.
Your opinion about anything means nothing to me Lordbain. Carry on.
On Twitter:
“I think if JD Vance is elected vice president turkey would leave nato. Because what he did to the ottomans”
https://x.com/CaraMia200/status/1817870616113868836/photo/1
“In the crosshairs…”?
I’m shocked that the Puritanically P.C. Guardian would subject it’s perpetually terrified readers to this inflamatory rhetoric.
Apology required, surely?
Lordbainsays:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 11:28 am
C@T don’t pretend you didn’t go after Nadia on multiple occasions because they were discussing polling you disagreed with.
Don’t shoot the messenger maybe…
==================================================
Nadia was more than capable of looking after herself though. To claim C@T ran her out of town. Is only a narrative being used to attack C@T with, by those who have their own axe grind with her. Even one poster who has only been posting for less than a day. Seems to have an axe to grind with C@T on this, believable?
Note: I’ve had my own fights with C@T at times. Also been in total agreement with her at other times and on a different topic. Important thing is to move on from it. If you can only be civil with posters that agree with you on everything. The only poster you want be fighting with is yourself.
fyi Sandman, this is the group you now support
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advance_(lobby_group)
Didn’t know you believed climate change was a myth, and that lgbtq+ people are chols predators….
Advance Australia basically played the Trump social media playbook on behalf of Dutton during the Voice referendum. They were extremely effective because they succeeded in amplifying Dutton’s crude lies.
IMO, the target cohort for this campaign would have had an extremely low overlap with potential Greens voters but a relatively high overlap with potential Labor voters.
The Greens have, in any case, given up all pretence of wanting to become the government of Australia. They have given up all pretence of actually wanting to negotiate in good faith with Labor.
Although they are still running the lines that they are, somehow or other, ‘good’ for Labor because they have nowhere else to send their prefs. Even then for every 100 prefs, 20 go to the Rightards, offsetting 20 of the 80 they send to Labor for a net gain to Labor of 60.
The Greens are essentially going to target a limited number of seats hoping that they will get the BOP in the House and/or the Senate. In this scenario it won’t really matter the national greens polling is essentially flatlining. It is where the votes are concentrated.
The odd thing is that the Greens themselves are terribly candid about how this strategy works in practice. They will tell anyone who cares to listen Labor, despite the Greens BOP in the Senate, is a total failure.
How having two BOPs – one in the House and one in the Senate – will make anything more than a marginal difference is not explained.
Ergo, Advance Australia’s main focus will, presumably, be workers in outer urban seats – hoping to flip these to Dutton – at least partially tarring Labor with the Greens brush.
Entropy:
Note: I’ve had my own fights with C@T at times.
But you’re being a doormat now.
What changed?
‘Badthinker says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 11:53 am
The Greens leader, Adam Bandt, considers it no less than a “badge of honour” to be in the crosshairs of conservative lobby group Advance Australia…
“In the crosshairs…”?
I’m shocked that the Puritanically P.C. Guardian would subject it’s perpetually terrified readers to this inflamatory rhetoric.
Apology required, surely?’
———————-
I am sure he will apologize.
Have the awesome Aussie women’s rugby 7’s got a nickname ?
If not they need one.
PageBoi says Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 7:40 am
Albanese was ambitious with the Voice and look what happened. That said, they do appear to be drifting.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) has withdrawn from consideration as Vice President Harris’s running mate in the November election, he said Monday. Others still being vetted include Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D), Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D), Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Ergo, Advance Australia’s main focus will, presumably, be workers in outer urban seats – hoping to flip these to Dutton –
The announcement is targeting a million Female soft Green voters.
A worthwhile objective, and likely to succeed, since the things Females are interested in-
family, home, children, safety are the things The Greens are working hardest to destroy.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/30/guardian-essential-poll-australians-more-favourable-to-trump-and-less-sure-about-aukus
Guardian Essential poll: almost a third of Australians say they would vote for Trump if they could
I know it’s been posted before, but this is another sign for anyone that if you think the rise of the far right can’t happen here, you are dangerously wrong…
Zoe Daniels is a player.
She looks on and is silent on six major pieces of reform currently being blocked.
Pathological blocking by the Thug and his Toolie?
Harris can’t find a VP?
No surprises there, it’s a poisoned chalice now.
Holdenhillbilly @ #478 Tuesday, July 30th, 2024 – 12:05 pm
What did they dig up?
Badthinkersays:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 11:53 am
The Greens leader, Adam Bandt, considers it no less than a “badge of honour” to be in the crosshairs of conservative lobby group Advance Australia…
“In the crosshairs…”?
I’m shocked that the Puritanically P.C. Guardian would subject it’s perpetually terrified readers to this inflamatory rhetoric.
Apology required, surely?
================================================
Did Advance Australia actually say that they had Bandt in the crosshairs? If not Bandt shouldn’t use that terminology. If they did they should retract and apologise to Bandt. Like when a Daily Rupert did that same violent symbolism on their front page against Palaszczuk.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-21/sunshine-coast-daily-front-page-prompts-complaint/11132724
Yeah that cross hairs framing was not good. A withdrawal or apology might be warranted here. That report clearly indicated Advance are going specifically after the Greens, like Palmer did with Shorten in 2019. I dont support Advance Australia but if they drop $5 million in anti Greens advertising it will help the Labor campaign to retain government [albeit a minority government] I say bring it on.
Badthinkersays:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 12:01 pm
Entropy:
Note: I’ve had my own fights with C@T at times.
But you’re being a doormat now.
What changed?
===============================================
I realised Gympie was the true enemy and defeated him with reasoned argument. Like Trump, he is to afraid to debate now.
I guess some people like higher energy bills.
Badthinker have you worked out if you live in the Wide Bay or Moreton electorate yet ? Maybe a move to Dickson would work for you.
Listen badthinker if you want to get the women vote maybe realise that are not every woman wants to have family person but every woman wants to be safe and considering what the LNP did to Higgins yeah that’s gonna be hard one
Daniel Rossi, ABS head of construction statistics, said: “Over the past 12 months, there have been a total of 162,892 dwellings approved, compared to 177,936 in the 12 months prior, representing a 8.5 per cent decrease, in original terms. This is the lowest number of dwellings approved on a financial year basis since 2011/12.“
Hmm the children are in charge.
Inflation through the roof bringing in too many people then go backwards in house building.Well done federal labor government!
re REX and Bonza
I am an afficiondo of both airlines
BONZA was screwed by CASA delaying approval to fly for 18 months
when BONZA got permission to fly the planes were regularly delayed in Melbourne waiting for air traffic control permission to fly through Sydney air space. That regular 2 hour delay meant that BONZA couldn’t fly as many routes per day
Their flights were regularly full or 6 empty seats out of 180
REX is more expensive
Their 33 seat SAAB was 1/2 full on the regional flight on Wednesday night
Their Boeing 787 Neo had 40 passengers and 150 empty seats from Syd to Mel
On the regional route Qantas flew a deHavilland with 88 seats
I think Qantas domestic flight prices should be subject to controls
Qantas International only has 3 routes currently
Per – Lon, Per – Paris, & Syd – Fort Worth
everything else is code share
billie says Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 12:45 pm
I thought they were using 737s.
I’m wondering why code share matters if they are Qantas planes? e.g. Singapore Airlines flights to Perth are code share if I remember correctly.
Qantas also flies to plenty of other destinations (e.g. PER – Singapore, SYD – Tokyo, SYD – LAX).
The Paris Olympics has officially announced the postponement of the men’s triathlon due to water contamination in the Seine – just hours before it was set to begin.
A decision was made at 4:15am local time – ahead of the event’s scheduled start time at 8am.
Paris spent $2.47 billion AUD cleaning up the river Seine as one of the key legacy aspects of this year’s Olympics. Three public swimming areas were set to be opened to the public after the games.
The men’s event will now be held tomorrow at 10.45am local time, after the women’s event begins at 8am.
OMG, how weird is this Trump i/v on Fox…
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1818107654616514973
Senator Fatima Payman: Independent Role Offers Freedom, Slams ALP Invisibility
Natasha Clark
Broome Advertiser
Tue, 30 July 2024 12:09PM
Comments
Independent senator Fatima Payman, who split from Labor over the issue of recognising Palestinian statehood, says her new role has given her access and connections with West Australians that were not possible as an ALP member.
She likened remaining in the Labor caucus in Federal Parliament to “keeping a seat warm and being invisible until the next election”.
Oh stop it Fatima!
Bonza > Rex imo
It always gets like this in the buildup to elections, esp the US and Fed Australian. Esp if Labor is struggling.
Yep. 😉
Bonza says:
Tuesday, July 30, 2024 at 1:00 pm
“Bonza > Rex imo”
Rex may disagree.
It would be sad to see Rex Airlines fail. Bonza was always a dead airline flying.
‘I followed the rules but I lost my job’: Migrant worker welcomes new visa that lets people like her stay in Australia
A new visa that was quietly introduced last week is already giving hope to migrant workers who are battling for justice against exploitation, a leading legal advocate says.
Abc online 30/7
Great labor is giving one year visas to any migrant that wants to stay in the country!!!
Just make a false claim you have a year here!