Nine Newspapers reports the monthly federal poll from Resolve Strategic gives the Coalition its best result for the term, with its primary vote up two points to 38% while the Labor remains stuck at 28%, the Greens are down one to 13% and One Nation is steady at 6%. A two-party preferred calculation based on preference flows from 2022 produces something close to a dead heat. The poll also records Peter Dutton retaining the one-point lead on preferred prime minister that he attained for the first time in last month’s poll, now at 35-34 from 36-35 last time. Albanese’s combined very good and good performance rating tumbles five points to 32% with very poor and poor up three to 54%, while Dutton is respectively down three to 39% and steady on 40%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1603.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has a better result for Labor than last time, putting them ahead 50.5-49.5 on two-party preferred (UPDATE: I have this the wrong way round – it’s the Coalition leading 50.5-49.5)) compared with a 51.5-48.5 Coalition lead last time. This is based on respondent-allocated preferences, the pollster’s calculation based on preference flows at the 2022 election putting Labor ahead 51.5-48.5. The primary votes have the Coalition down two points to 37.5%, Labor up two-and-a-half to 31%, the Greens down one to 12.5% and One Nation steady at 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1758.
The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll focuses on attitudes towards Australian democracy, with 37% reporting satisfaction, up five from March, 30% dissatisfaction, down one, and 33% neither, up one. Voting intention results from the poll will be along later today.
UPDATE: Voting intention from the Essential Research poll has Labor at 29% (down one), the Coalition at 33% (steady), the Greens at 13% (up one), One Nation at 8% (steady), the United Australia Party at 3% (up two) and others at 14% (down two), with the balance undecided. On the 2PP+ measure, the Coalition’s lead is out from 47-46 to 48-46.
Griff @ #196 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 12:13 pm
I didn’t think my post would do any good, and I was right.
You are either unwilling or unable to see round your party-issued blinkers.
The polls look like delivering the best possible election outcome.
A minority Govt with crossbench oversight and cabinet positions.
These crazy decisions like AUKUS and nuclear and keeping vulnerable people living in poverty can’t be allowed to continue.
Just putting this up again as you watch the fawning and pants-wetting over Donald Trump, as he soaks up the adulation at the Republican Convention:
As tax and superannuation debts grow, ATO issues tens of thousands of director penalty notices that could send more people bankrupt: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-16/directors-personally-liable-for-unpaid-superannuation-tax-ato/104086046
‘nadia88 says:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 12:14 pm
Someone mentioned earlier that the Senate may become more right wing after the next election.
Have to remember, that it is the 2019 Senators up for election this cycle, and that was a strong year for the right/centre right (incl 4 right aligned Senators from QLD).
The LNP vote is strong in QLD at the moment, but is unlikely to win 4 right aligned Senators again. Most likely the ALP will pick up a Senator in QLD, and the left/centre left will retain control of the Senate post the next election.
…’
—————–
Too soon to say.
You have yet to factor in the full cumulative real world voting impact of all the delays and complete blocks inflicted by the Thug and the Bandicoot.
The reality is that the first impetus every single time by the Thug and the Bandicoot is to delay bills, regulation changes or program reform. These delays have a political purpose. But in a three year term delaying everything by six months actually has a subtantial cumulative impact on good governance.
Previously blocked altogether, delayed and or damaged significantly: vaping reform, all five significant pieces of climate action, the NACC, AAT reform, housing supply for victims of DV, housing supply for Indigenous people, housing supply for homeless people and IR reform.
Currently being held up or blocked altogether: suprannuation taxation reform, religious discrimination reform, political donations reform and NDIS reform and the supply of social housing. Damaged reform includes vaping reform.
The governance wreckage being inflicted by the Senate BOPPERs is being reflected in the polling with a Bludger track improvement for Dutton of 1.4%, for Hanson of 2.2%. The Greens’ paltry increase of .6% cannot offset the growth in the votes of the Liberals and the Far Right.
The Bandicoot’s political antics are feeding the Thug. Dutton is laughing all the way to the prime ministership.
Enjoy.
CAT, just shut up. Stop trying to make this an echo chamber…
Rex Douglas @ #202 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 12:20 pm
The Teals, who will, more likely than not, be the majority of any Cross Bench after the next election, are economic conservatives and unlikely to back any economically profligate policies.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 12:21 pm
As tax and superannuation debts grow, ATO issues tens of thousands of director penalty notices that could send more people bankrupt: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-16/directors-personally-liable-for-unpaid-superannuation-tax-ato/104086046
________
Thanks. It is a significant issue. How do employees receive what they are entitled to? Too many cowboys taking on company directorships without knowledge and/or consideration of their responsibilities.
Lordbain says:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 12:22 pm
CAT, just shut up. Stop trying to make this an echo chamber…
_________
I am sure you will compensate 🙂
Federal Lib/nats combined primary vote 33% in essential poll
would mean hello Angus Taylor as the federal Liberal party leader this year
I have been trying to stay away from the hysteria in the US, so I had missed this …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/jul/16/australia-news-live-homeless-deaths-fishing-cost-of-living-clean-energy-ai-inquiry?page=with:block-6695cd5f8f08ee3616ac726b#block-6695cd5f8f08ee3616ac726b
It is not just “distressing” and “unfair”. It is downright disgraceful for Labor to try and tie these two incidents together, just to cover up their own mistakes.
With climate protesters now routinely given prison sentences, it is clear that both our major political parties are desperate to suppress legitimate political protest.
‘Griff says:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 12:29 pm
Holdenhillbilly says:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 12:21 pm
As tax and superannuation debts grow, ATO issues tens of thousands of director penalty notices that could send more people bankrupt: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-16/directors-personally-liable-for-unpaid-superannuation-tax-ato/104086046
________
Thanks. It is a significant issue. How do employees receive what they are entitled to? Too many cowboys taking on company directorships without knowledge and/or consideration of their responsibilities.’
================
Rest assured that any attempt by Labor to reform the situation will be delayed by the Thug and the Bandicoot. They may be completely blocked. Happily for the Liberal shonks involved, any reforms finally allowed through after much shouting, stunting and tub thumping by the Bandicoot will hardly be in place before Dutton controls the Senate BOP after the next Fed election.
Enjoy!
If it happens
Would Angus Taylor as leader of the federal Liberal party leader improve the federal lib/nats combined primary vote ?
C@t – I thought we’d sorted this out yesterday evening. Alas, you keep bouncing back to it, as if Lars & I are somehow in a conspiracy to drive the ALP primary down, and laugh & mock on the way. I just make observations on where Oz polling is heading, so give me at least 1 out of 10 for prescience and the guts to post before the event, rather than engaging in “i told you so” triumphant posts afterwards. You know I’m not a gloater or boaster.
Below is the full post I made on 1/7. You can go back and check it if you wish. As mentioned last night, I’m a bit tired of the constant scratchy thing back & forth and I’m sure it’s boring for others.
===============================================================
nadia88says:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 8:58 pm
Badthinkersays:
Monday, July 1, 2024 at 8:14 pm
nadia88
Per Bludgertrack – it appears it is now current to 11-Jun. I’m sure the last date I saw was 17-Jun and a 50.4% alp 2pp. WB – Did you have to do a re-calc on bludgertrack out of interest.
No, i’m making the observation that 32.5% for Labor [if accurate] is worse than 32.6% at the ’22 election, since it can’t take account of strategic voting.
____________________________
On Payman, she came across on Insiders as intelligent and having her feet in the ground.
If Wong as leader in the Senate has mismanaged the situation, she should be moved on asap.
==========================
No argument Badthinker from me with regard to the ALP primary. It’s anaemic.
I was actually directing the query to our site host with regard to bludgertrack too, regarding the dates on bludgertrack. It’s a non issue.
Last week, and this week, should have been a good period for the ALP, however all we hear on the media is Payman, Payman, Payman and ALP division headlines. To be frank, it’s all a bit of a mess and I’d expect the ALP primary to start trending down during July. Yes Lars – you can expect <30% primary on two or three polls by 31-Jul.
With regard to Sen.Wong though, I don't see how she has created this mess. She is a pretty steadfast Labor person and would've provided the correct advice to Sen.Payman before the latter crossed the floor. Remember, Sen Wong had to "vote against gay marriage" 12 years ago. That must of hurt but she stuck to the party line instead of getting caught up in emotion. I think she may have even been accused of homophobia. That's how sick politics was 12 years ago. We're getting it again.
With regard to Payman coming across "as intelligent" on TV, well that is up to the TV producers how they make a politician look. They can make them look ridiculous as well. Darken the screen and put in a spooky soundtrack and you can make a politician look sinister.
I wouldn't take some "puff piece" seriously.
The Senator in question got her spot in parliament because hard working branch members in W.A. worked their backsides off to get a 3rd Senator up in that state. I expect that support will evaporate well before 30-Jun-2028.
It’s pretty clear that some of the bigger unions have lost their way.
In truth, it’s been the case for years.
The Labor party and the ACTU need to clean up their act, get rid of the rogue managers and get back to the fundamentals.
Otherwise it’s game over for them all.
The Teals, who will, more likely than not, be the majority of any Cross Bench after the next election, are economic conservatives and unlikely to back any economically profligate policies.
If “economic conservatives” had been in power during Covid19, there would’ve been no JobKeeper or doubling of the Dole and Australia would be in another Great Depression now.
So, keep The Teals away from the economy levers, they’re no better than Labor.
Griff @ #209 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 12:30 pm
Oh, did Lordbane tell me to shut up!?! Look, I know The Greens and the Coalition are holding hands to try and eliminate the Labor voice (obvious by who holds hands together on PB), but no, coarse demands such as that will never succeed. 🙂
I’ve been saying this for a while, Labor will lose the election around the strongly perceived issue of continued high numbers around immigration and the lack of action around reducing the numbers significantly enough for people’s living standards and infrastructure to recover.
A major Union donor is being exposed for years of corrupt behaviour.
Meanwhile certain Labor supporters here think fun little nicknames will help secure the base.
Keep it up 🙂
Badthinker @ #216 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 12:42 pm
You may not have noticed, but the Coalition doubling the dole was very quickly rescinded by them plus a small increase, whereas JobKeeper was handed out Liberally with no requirement to pay it back to the Coalition government. And here we are today, with Labor having to clean up the Coalition’s Cost of Living mess. Which they left on the way out after the party they had with the taxpayers’ $$.
LongMemory82 @ #218 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 12:45 pm
Fcs! They’ve only been in power for a little over 2 years! They will need more time than that to clean up the mess that 10 years of Coalition government created.
Scott:
Would Angus Taylor as leader of the federal Liberal party leader improve the federal lib/nats combined primary vote ?
I would say Yes in NSW and with women voters, but only short term.
The problem is Angus Taylor isn’t someone who can lead a Party out of Opposition .
Once they get there under Dutts, yeah, Taylor is a chance.
The Greens have been deliberately and systematically ratcheting up the temperature in Australia. They have been doing this with false claims. They have been this with emotional and inflammatory language. They have doing this with a singular lack of balance.
When called out on it they do a mealy mouthed dissociation from the political violence they have engendered with their systematic behaviours.
They are, however, sensitive souls when the direct real world consequences of their real world behaviours are sheeted home.
The heart-rending political outcome for the Greens is that they have inadvertently fostered a political movement that is to the LEFT of the Greens and may well damage them in the next election. So much for the astroturfing venture.
Their temperature contributions to the damage and destruction of electoral offices and the harrassment of political staff is simply shrugged off.
Yet the general impact of their inflammatory language is reflected in real world consequences.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/10/islamophobic-and-antisemitic-incidents-rise-in-australia-advocates-say
Whether or not these are also enough to spark some lonely and dissociated ratbag to indulge in a shooting remains to be seen.
Albanese is doing what he can to cool things down. The Greens are doing what they can to keep the temperature high.
Rex
” The polls look like delivering the best possible election outcome.
A minority Govt with crossbench oversight and cabinet positions.
These crazy decisions like AUKUS and nuclear and keeping vulnerable people living in poverty can’t be allowed to continue.”
—————————————-
Rex
These points are not related. You are dealing in non-sequiters.
As Cat will testify, I am not a fan of AUKUS. Nevertheless, you can’t link AUKUS and nuclear to keeping people in poverty. Quite simply, AUKUS promises vast expense in the future, but in the short term it has seen a FALL in defense spending on submarines. So whatever is causing people to live in poverty, it isn’t AUKUS.
Likewise Nuclear (power). Lots of rhetoric from Dutton but happily no spending from Labor.
Labor has cut other areas and spent a lot to increase payments to people on low to average incomes and welfare since coming to office. You can blame them for some things, but not any increase in [people living in] poverty (if there has been an increase). Housing and the cause of higher interest rates were problems Labor inherited.
They needed to go hard on this – they didn’t and basically said “it’s out of our control”
C@tmomma @ #221 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 12:48 pm
Bandicoot is an apt name for a chancer feeding on the carrion that is the modern ALP.
Thug?
Well, it can’t be easy trying to corral the conservatives and redwings that infest the nominally Centrist Liberal & National Parties.
nadia88,
My response was not to the substance of the engagement with Lars Von Trier. You can speculate about polling, prospectively or retrospectively, all you like, it’s a free site. However, it would be wise to note that Lars Von Trier likes nothing more than conscripting others to his project to discredit Labor with whatever he can lay his hands on, and if he can rely on someone to do the Labor Deathwatch Pas de Deux with him he will. It’s your choice, of course, what you do, however, he is relying on your enthusiasm for the numbers to tie in nicely with his enthusiastic campaign to project Labor decrepitude. Unfairly. As has been his wont for over a decade, I don’t know if you had noticed?
That is all my comments have ever been aimed at. Him more than you. I hope you understand that now.
Lordbain @ #206 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 12:22 pm
If you are getting echoes it is usually of hard surfaces, like walls and windows.
Try bringing the speakers out from the wall by about 300 to 600 mm and put heavier curtains over the windows – perhaps with a little toe in. You can, if you can afford it put some sound absorbent material strategically placed. This is most effective for the higher frequencies as these tend to be very directional, whereas the bass, with a good subwoofer is nearly impossible to determine it’s location.
Alternatively, you can just use the scroll wheel on your mouse.
Lordbainsays:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 12:22 pm
CAT, just shut up. Stop trying to make this an echo chamber…
===============================================
On what issue? The post of hers that proceeded yours was on Trump.
Entropy, basically any comment nadia makes on polling has CAT jump in and talk shit
So, what streaming platform has the full Olympics coverage this year ?
Entropy @ #229 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 12:59 pm
He meant my comment about Lars Von Trier and nadia88. Which I have addressed @12.57pm.
Badthinkersays:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 12:48 pm
Scott:
Would Angus Taylor as leader of the federal Liberal party leader improve the federal lib/nats combined primary vote ?
I would say Yes in NSW and with women voters, but only short term.
The problem is Angus Taylor isn’t someone who can lead a Party out of Opposition .
Once they get there under Dutts, yeah, Taylor is a chance.
========================================================
Are you suggesting all his fake stories about his time at college with Naomi Wolf will appeal to the female voter? I think most female voters know a boy who cries Wolf when they see one.
If Albo needs a circuit breaker, he should rejig these ridiculous gas export contracts.
Establish a national gas reserve, at the very least.
Rex Douglas @ #234 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 1:05 pm
But Rex – every litre of LPG exported is a dollar for … oh, wait … 🙁
You may not have noticed, but the Coalition doubling the dole was very quickly rescinded by them plus a small increase, whereas JobKeeper was handed out Liberally with no requirement to pay it back to the Coalition government.
No, it wasn’t ‘very quickly rescinded’.
It was announced for 6 months, plus 2 Lump Sum payments.
https://probonoaustralia.com.au/news/2020/03/government-temporarily-doubles-unemployment-payments-amid-covid-19-outbreak/
Rex Douglassays:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 1:05 pm
If Albo needs a circuit breaker, he should rejig these ridiculous gas export contracts.
Establish a national gas reserve, at the very least.
=============================================
China would be very pissed off and put sanctions back on us though. The international trade courts would side with them too. As it was us that first reneged on our contracts.
Probably best just to do as much as we can to reduce our need for gas though, as quickly as possible. Along with coal and other fossil fuels though. Though gas is cleaner than the rest. So there is an argument for getting rid of it last of that filthy lot.
Rex Douglas @ #229 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 1:01 pm
Appears to be Nine now.
And an Onlyfans model got to speak. I can just see the evangelical Republicans nodding sagely in agreement at her words.
The RNC always has been a laugh. But this year it’s a total freak show.
Lordbainsays:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 1:00 pm
Entropy, basically any comment nadia makes on polling has CAT jump in and talk shit
==================================================
The next page came to quickly. I would have been surprised if you were annoyed by the continued discussion of Trump. Also it would be a King Canute like lost cause to try and stop that too, i suspect.
Entropy, not even Marx himself (hallowed be his name) could stop the Trump flood 😉
Here is a question from today’s Essential which interests a few posters on this blog
https://essentialreport.com.au/questions/views-on-the-best-way-to-form-government
Q. Which of the following is closest to your view on what the BEST outcome of an election?
Single party majority 42%
No single party majority (hung parliament) 38%
Unsure 20%
Lordbainsays:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 1:28 pm
Entropy, not even Marx himself (hallowed be his name) could stop the Trump flood
===============================================
I gather Marx was no Marksman.
Sorry, my desire for alliteration has overcome good taste.
Badthinker @ #237 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 1:13 pm
This is what I’m talking about:
Executive summary
On 21 July 2020 the Government announced changes to the income support measures introduced in response to COVID-19, including:
* a reduction in the Coronavirus Supplement amount from $550 to $250 per fortnight
* changes to the JobSeeker Payment and Youth Allowance (Other) income tests and
the end to some temporary eligibility changes.
* Lowering the Coronavirus Supplement rate will reduce the level of assistance available to several million income support recipients and will take effect during the final quarter of 2020. Based on Government estimates, there is a risk that this may coincide with a peak in unemployment levels.
* The lower rate of the supplement will reduce the work disincentive arising from the design of the payment.
* The new income test will allow JobSeeker Payment and Youth Allowance (Other) recipients to earn more income before their payment rate is reduced under the income test.
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp2021/ChangesCOVID-19SocialSecurity
The Coalition hard-heartedness on full display, which they never applied to JobKeeper payments and recipients.
A full year before the lockdowns were lifted in December of 2021.
How did Bidens Holt interview go? Anyone prepared to give an unbiased review?
If Biden has political nuts, he should visit the shooting victims and or call the families.
It’s about decency & good PR!
Lots of polling coming out comparing Biden v Trump to Harris v Trump. Apples & oranges imo.
oooo interesting tid bit Isle.
TK, I would say… about average for the last few weeks
Team Katich @ #246 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 1:36 pm
Do you mean this?
The president acknowledged that it was a “mistake” to say that he wanted to put a “bullseye” on Trump, in an interview with NBC News. 🙄
More here:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/jul/15/donald-trump-republican-national-convention-speech-milwaukee-shooting-joe-biden-us-politics-latest-news-updates