Polls: Resolve Strategic, Roy Morgan, Essential Research (open thread)

Labor gets its worst poll for the term from Resolve Strategic, but a better one than last week from Roy Morgan.

Nine Newspapers reports the monthly federal poll from Resolve Strategic gives the Coalition its best result for the term, with its primary vote up two points to 38% while the Labor remains stuck at 28%, the Greens are down one to 13% and One Nation is steady at 6%. A two-party preferred calculation based on preference flows from 2022 produces something close to a dead heat. The poll also records Peter Dutton retaining the one-point lead on preferred prime minister that he attained for the first time in last month’s poll, now at 35-34 from 36-35 last time. Albanese’s combined very good and good performance rating tumbles five points to 32% with very poor and poor up three to 54%, while Dutton is respectively down three to 39% and steady on 40%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1603.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has a better result for Labor than last time, putting them ahead 50.5-49.5 on two-party preferred (UPDATE: I have this the wrong way round – it’s the Coalition leading 50.5-49.5)) compared with a 51.5-48.5 Coalition lead last time. This is based on respondent-allocated preferences, the pollster’s calculation based on preference flows at the 2022 election putting Labor ahead 51.5-48.5. The primary votes have the Coalition down two points to 37.5%, Labor up two-and-a-half to 31%, the Greens down one to 12.5% and One Nation steady at 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1758.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll focuses on attitudes towards Australian democracy, with 37% reporting satisfaction, up five from March, 30% dissatisfaction, down one, and 33% neither, up one. Voting intention results from the poll will be along later today.

UPDATE: Voting intention from the Essential Research poll has Labor at 29% (down one), the Coalition at 33% (steady), the Greens at 13% (up one), One Nation at 8% (steady), the United Australia Party at 3% (up two) and others at 14% (down two), with the balance undecided. On the 2PP+ measure, the Coalition’s lead is out from 47-46 to 48-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,313 comments on “Polls: Resolve Strategic, Roy Morgan, Essential Research (open thread)”

Comments Page 4 of 47
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  1. Jackolsays:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 10:29 am

    This is a prime example of how Albanese – very much like Morrison before him – is just not proactive enough.

    To be a stable, long term government you have to be out in front of every possible issue. Every minister, from the PM down, has to be spending time every day working out (and that means consulting widely and actually reading stuff that crosses your desk) what might become an issue tomorrow, or next month, or next year, and genuinely considering if they have done enough to prepare/head off the problems.

    Sitting back until these things detonate is a terrible way to manage things. Again, it’s what Morrison of all people was notorious for. And if you’re not exceeding Morrison in the general atmosphere around government then you don’t deserve to be in government

    ————————-

    Yep I think you’re right, waiting until things blow up and then doing too little, too late seems to be a defining feature of the Albanese government.

  4. meher babasays:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 7:30 am

    His one redeeming feature is that he is smart. I belong to the school of thought that believes that smart and evil is always preferable to stupid and evil and even, at times, is better than stupid and good.
    ===================================================

    That sounds a bit Machiavellian to me.

  7. Team Katich @ #141 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 10:46 am

    Reading about the Classified Doc case atm. I wasnt convinced about AOCs effort to impeach Thomas, but now it is so clear this guy is completely unfit for the position. He effectively issued instruction to Cannon through his recent SCOTUS opinion on a matter almost completely unrelated.

    After Trumps 3 appointments (one of which wasnt his to appoint), Biden needed to stack the court this term. He didnt. And it will bite.

    This is a very good Explainer on that particular subject:

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/15/2254378/-Cannon-dismisses-docs-case-Smith-wrongly-appointed

  8. Entropy @ #154 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 11:10 am

    meher babasays:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 7:30 am

    His one redeeming feature is that he is smart. I belong to the school of thought that believes that smart and evil is always preferable to stupid and evil and even, at times, is better than stupid and good.
    ===================================================

    That sounds a bit Machiavellian to me.

    Which is definitely the flavour of the month right now.

  10. The Bandicoot and the Thug are blocking tax increases on filthy rich people with balances of over a hundred million in Super.

    Robin Hood? Pah. The Bandicoot is the enabler of the Sheriff of Nottingham…aka… the Thug.

    Give me a break!

  12. The Wall Street Journal reports that Elon Musk plans to support Donald Trump’s campaign by contributing $45 million a month.

  13. O.C.;
    I thought it was cherries and milk but Taylor is thought to have contracted cholera at July 4 celebrations.
    Cherries & milk confirmed.
    Of course, some people with evil minds think he was poisoned because of his opposition to the Compromise of 1850.
    Damn those evil minded people to hell!
    I mean, there’s only been 47 U.S. Presidents, how many have been either shot at or died suddenly in mysterious circumstances?
    12, at most.
    Case closed?

  16. The current evidence suggests that the shooter Crooks wasn’t particularly political. I suspect he was a registered Republican because likely his parents were. The overwhelming evidence is he was a loner and was extremely badly bullied throughout his life. My feeling is he tried to assassinate Trump as a murder suicide type action. That his motivation may been to get some fame in doing so? Though it possibly was to take out an uber-bully, the sort of person who personified those who were the bane of his life. Alternatively it may have been a way to get back as his actual bullies. Whom one suspects could be big Trump supporters. As it would not be surprising if bullies greatly admire the biggest bully of them all Trump.

  17. TK

    Ok, I am getting to know the characters now and feel more comfortable with the slightly slapstick, old school Irish/Brit ham it up style. Derry Girls probably is the funniest TV comedy this century.

    I definitely agree with this.

    Lisa McGee is a very talented director.

  18. Mostly Interested@11:15 AM:

    You need to learn how to read a chart. The growth rate is still positive. So salaries still increased.

  19. The Albo and the Thug are enabling tax breaks on filthy rich people with multiple tax breaks and a lack of reform on franking credits etc.

    Fighter for average worker? Pah. The Albo is the enabler of the Thug.

    Give me a break!

  20. sealionsays:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 11:25 am
    Mostly Interested@11:15 AM:

    You need to learn how to read a chart. The growth rate is still positive. So salaries still increased.
    ___________________________________
    You need to compare wage growth to inflation for starters…

  21. Alpha Zero @ #170 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 11:29 am

    sealionsays:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 11:25 am
    Mostly Interested@11:15 AM:

    You need to learn how to read a chart. The growth rate is still positive. So salaries still increased.
    ___________________________________
    You need to compare wage growth to inflation for starters…

    Yeah I was a little surprised that needed to be stated.

  24. Entropy @ #166 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 11:22 am

    The current evidence suggests that the shooter Crooks wasn’t particularly political. I suspect he was a registered Republican because likely his parents were. The overwhelming evidence is he was a loner and was extremely badly bullied throughout his life. My feeling is he tried to assassinate Trump as a murder suicide type action. That his motivation may been to get some fame in doing so? Though it possibly was to take out an uber-bully, the sort of person who personified those who were the bane of his life. Alternatively it may have been a way to get back as his actual bullies. Whom one suspects could be big Trump supporters. As it would not be surprising if bullies greatly admire the biggest bully of them all Trump.

    As mystery continues surrounding the possible motivations of the 20-year-old Pennsylvania man accused of trying to kill Donald Trump at a campaign rally, a former classmate of his came forward to describe him as “definitely conservative” when they were in school together.

    “It makes me wonder why he would carry out an assassination attempt on the conservative candidate,” Max R Smith told the Philadelphia Inquirer of the accused shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/15/trump-shooter-motive

  26. sealionsays:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 11:25 am
    Mostly Interested@11:15 AM:

    You need to learn how to read a chart. The growth rate is still positive. So salaries still increased.
    ==============================================

    It was a wage growth chart. Saying it went down is still true. If he was referring to the line on the chart that he showed. Which i certainly took to be what he was doing, even if you did not.

  30. Entropy@11:37:

    I am absolutely fascinated if words mean anything now.

    Here is what he/she wrote (verbatim):

    Oh gee, wages went down under the decade of the ATM government, who knew?

    And then refers to a chart that shows positive wage growth.

  32. UK cartoons and other miscellany

    Guy Venables

    Matt

    Placide

    Dario Castillejos

    Morten Morland

    Ted Littleford

    Patrick Blower

    Garthtoons

    Guy Shrubsole

    Brighty

    Patrick Blower

    ==========================================
    Stolen from the internet

    This has bothered me since the shooting. There is barely no mention if the person killed or the people injured in the reporting:

  33. Simon Rosenberg:

    Tonight’s quick take is on JD Vance. I am not surprised Trump picked Vance. Of all the finalists he is most like Trump. This wasn’t a “balance” pick, or an olive branch to non-MAGA Republicans and independents, or an attempt to lower the temperature – it was an in-your-face-MAGA, project 2025-backing, Putin-loving pick.

  36. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 11:35 am
    Entropy @ #166 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 11:22 am
    ==================================================

    Certainly all the evidence is he grew up in fairly right wing environment. Though as an adult he doesn’t seem to be strongly involved in pushing that political ideology. We certainly can’t rule out that his mental psychosis is a direct result of the nasty upbringing. As someone who doesn’t quite fit, likely faces in a RWNJ dominated environment.

  40. July 15, 2024, 9:59 p.m. ET2 minutes ago
    2 minutes ago
    Michael GoldReporting from Milwaukee

    Donald Trump is standing in the hallway of the arena, about to enter in what will be his first public appearance since the shooting on Saturday.

  42. sealionsays:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 11:44 am
    Entropy@11:37:

    I am absolutely fascinated if words mean anything now.

    Here is what he/she wrote (verbatim):

    Oh gee, wages went down under the decade of the ATM government, who knew?

    And then refers to a chart that shows positive wage growth., who knew?

    And then refers to a chart that shows positive wage growth.
    ==================================================

    Technically you are correct. I actually read it as a sentence error though. With a single word accidentally omitted.

    I just took it that the section of the sentence that said:
    “wages went down under the decade of the ATM government”

    Was mean’t to read
    “wages growth went down under the decade of the ATM government”

    Which would fit with what the graphs shows and i thought a small sentence error was more likely than an incorrect reading of a graph in this case. Your welcome to your own interpretation. Which i assume is coloured somewhat by your ideology too. As mine is likely to be too.

  44. Don’t know Lars. ALP primary was 32% on the last Newspoll. I’d say it will drop down a notch or so.
    Well, this is the 3rd poll this month to show a sub 30 primary for the ALP. I read Kos Samaras’ comments about polling saying the ALP is consistently low to mid 30’s, but there hasn’t been much evidence this past few weeks.
    Bludgertrack has Labor currently averaging out to 31.7% so I suppose we’ll all see what that looks like next time it’s adjusted.

    Awaiting the report from Freshwater Strategy & YouGov, and we should get a Newspoll this Sunday.

  46. Player One says:
    Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 10:02 am
    Griff @ #110 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 9:53 am

    “I have. Your first preference isn’t a vote. It is a preference. You demonstrate ignorance of our preferential voting system. The question is whether the ignorance is a result of capability or design.”

    I’d ask you to read my post again, and then reflect on it. It may not do you much good, but I have some hope that you are merely a dedicated Labor Sandbagger, and not really as ill-informed on voting systems as your posts suggest.

    _______

    You certainly have carried on!

    Let’s put some facts up to contrast to your usual response, shall we?

    https://www.aec.gov.au/learn/preferential-voting.htm

    Preferences are marked by voters. Votes are transferred between candidates according to preferences marked.

    While this is fun, I really need to work. No doubt you will come back with more insults 🙂

  48. Someone mentioned earlier that the Senate may become more right wing after the next election.
    Have to remember, that it is the 2019 Senators up for election this cycle, and that was a strong year for the right/centre right (incl 4 right aligned Senators from QLD).
    The LNP vote is strong in QLD at the moment, but is unlikely to win 4 right aligned Senators again. Most likely the ALP will pick up a Senator in QLD, and the left/centre left will retain control of the Senate post the next election.
    Per DD talk – running out of time to get a trigger. Why would he want to anyway given he’s on track to jag an extra Senator from QLD.

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