Nine Newspapers reports the monthly federal poll from Resolve Strategic gives the Coalition its best result for the term, with its primary vote up two points to 38% while the Labor remains stuck at 28%, the Greens are down one to 13% and One Nation is steady at 6%. A two-party preferred calculation based on preference flows from 2022 produces something close to a dead heat. The poll also records Peter Dutton retaining the one-point lead on preferred prime minister that he attained for the first time in last month’s poll, now at 35-34 from 36-35 last time. Albanese’s combined very good and good performance rating tumbles five points to 32% with very poor and poor up three to 54%, while Dutton is respectively down three to 39% and steady on 40%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1603.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has a better result for Labor than last time, putting them ahead 50.5-49.5 on two-party preferred (UPDATE: I have this the wrong way round – it’s the Coalition leading 50.5-49.5)) compared with a 51.5-48.5 Coalition lead last time. This is based on respondent-allocated preferences, the pollster’s calculation based on preference flows at the 2022 election putting Labor ahead 51.5-48.5. The primary votes have the Coalition down two points to 37.5%, Labor up two-and-a-half to 31%, the Greens down one to 12.5% and One Nation steady at 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1758.
The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll focuses on attitudes towards Australian democracy, with 37% reporting satisfaction, up five from March, 30% dissatisfaction, down one, and 33% neither, up one. Voting intention results from the poll will be along later today.
UPDATE: Voting intention from the Essential Research poll has Labor at 29% (down one), the Coalition at 33% (steady), the Greens at 13% (up one), One Nation at 8% (steady), the United Australia Party at 3% (up two) and others at 14% (down two), with the balance undecided. On the 2PP+ measure, the Coalition’s lead is out from 47-46 to 48-46.
Mavis yes pick one. I would argue Alfred the Great but not with a high degree of confidence.
I’m guessing
King John
Hank 8
Longshanks
‘VTC Et3e says:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 9:30 am
Thanks Boer War, Gallipoli, Singapore, Suez, Brexit …, in an age of special forces, space, platforms, missiles, drones, AI, I guess them AUKUS $$Ns will just be platforms.
Should buy some optical, housing, dental, CES, presumably will be left alone till after the 2025 Federal Election, presumably some Auditor General report or Four Corners will trigger a review. Probably be a lot cheaper to put some pods on a Globemaster, Poseidon, even them MRTT, 737 Max BBJ.
Hmmm, my take is different than yours. I reckon centrist, Libs lite, shit lite’s PV is about a third.
Given some of the commentary on PB, must be the rusted-ons that think country is heading in the right direction with ‘from the Med Sea to the Euphrates … Albo’. Bliarite Labor.
I suppose using a small target strategy to get into office
is one thing, ditching values, principles, if perhaps not promises, ah well …
I for one, prefer the major party executive in minority fed gov having to negotiate to get the numbers, and the senate balanced the other way. (And that will leak.)
Same for federal/ territory or state/ local!’
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Fans of cluster fuck governments for Australia really have something wonderful to look forward to on current trajectories:
A minority left government in the House which faces a right BOP controlled Senate.
This state of affairs feeds straight into right populism.
I trust that will enjoy being run by the Thug! because that is where we are headed.
Two interesting stories about the Greens appeared in the Australian on July 15.
Greens tell Muslim Vote to ‘leave Wills, Senate alone’
The Australian July 15th.
Panicked Greens senators and MPs fear the burgeoning The Muslim Vote movement could cost them the prized target seat of Wills and upper house votes, pleading with the campaign to leave it and the Senate race alone.
A potential split in the pro-Palestine vote came as Muslim leaders said the Greens’ policy slate would be a “deal-breaker” for the community, regardless of its pro-Palestine stance.The revelations are part of an investigation by The Australian into the Greens’ policies and electoral strategy as it seeks to win the balance of power in the upcoming federal election.
———
Most of the star Greens in the Senate are up for re election in 2025 including Faraqi (NSW), Larissa Waters (QLD), Sarah Hanson-Young (SA) Nick McKim (TAS), Hodgins (Vic) and John Steele- Johns (WA).
https://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Senators/Senators_by_service_expiry_date
Then in an interview on the same day, Bandt told The Australian the Greens would win over voters by “taking a Robin Hood platform to the election “ claiming the Greens were the only social democratic, authentic centre-left party in the Parliament and Labor is now a centre-right Party.
How does a “Robin Hood approach” mesh with blocking Labor’s proposed $2.3 billion tax increase on superannuation balances for wealthy retirees? How does forcing a stalling of the $10 billion dollar affordable housing package in2023 mesh with his “Robin Hood” platform?
If Albanese wanted to double down on “panicked Greens”, maybe he should find a trigger and go for a double dissolution election and wipe out a few Greens in the Senate in the process early in the new year. That could reduce the Greens from 11 to “7-9 seats maximum” and introduce 4-6 ‘other’ seats in the upper house, according the preference whisperer Glenn Druery (The Australian;-July 28, 2023).
“Robin Hood” economics -yes he actually used those words- is fantasy land economics typical of the Greens. What next. Introducing a members bill for all Australians to adopt a mandatory Government app so we can only make trunk calls on hand held phones. This guy Bandt really is out with the fairies in Nottingham Forest.
The news cycle is moving at a dizzying pace. Strap in
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/15/2254467/-The-news-cycle-is-moving-at-a-dizzying-pace-Strap-in?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
“Remember when Donald Trump faced an assassination attempt on Saturday? That was a moment of historic importance, yet here we are, two days later, and doesn’t it already feel like old news?
Once upon a time, the news cycle arrived one day at a time, reflected in the headlines of the next morning’s newspapers. Back then, afternoon dailies might scoop their morning counterparts on occasion, but really, it was all about the next day.
Then radio news programs came into their own during World War II, speeding up the news cycle, only for radio to wane in importance as TV and the nightly news became a scoop monster.
Then came cable news. In 1980, CNN became the first 24-hour all-news network. The news cycle started to match that pace as anchors updated current events at the top of the hour.
Then the internet. With the ability to instantly publish stories to a worldwide audience, the news cycle could change by the minute. And the advent of blogs forced newspapers online, to compete on that schedule.
Social media didn’t just reinforce that schedule but also broadened the scope of what “breaking news” was. Once social media sites became popular, new political movements and information ecosystems emerged, focusing on any range of topics—social justice, the law, Taylor Swift, and even the QAnon fever swamps. If you can believe it, it isn’t hard to find corners on TikTok that laud Osama bin Laden as an anti-imperialist hero. There are now news spheres hidden from most of the world, algorithmically driven to appear only to those most receptive to the message.
So what does all that mean?”
Read the article for whatit means.
Griff @ #98 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 9:29 am
Look at the votes parties get, and then look at the seats they end up with in parliament.
One way of dealing with this inequality would be MMP.
What happened to Trump is a drop in a vast ocean of American violence
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/15/2254367/-What-happened-to-Trump-is-a-drop-in-a-vast-ocean-of-American-violence?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web
”
Right now, Republicans are seeking to leverage this past weekend’s assassination attempt to their political advantage, painting Democrats as the primary—or even sole—perpetrators of violence. However, a study of incidents between 2021 and 2023 conducted by Reuters shows exactly what might be expected: “In those years, fatal political violence more often emanated from the American right than from the left.”
Reuters’ numbers confirm exactly what Biden talked about in his speech. The United States is currently experiencing the “most sustained spate of political violence since a decade of upheaval that began in the late 1960s,” according to Reuters. That violence has come from many different parts of the political spectrum, including a number of property crimes associated with protests originating on the left. But when it comes to violence against people, most were conducted “by suspects acting in service of right-wing political beliefs and ideology.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/07/15/republican-national-convention-trump-biden-2024-election-campaign-updates/#link-V7CMIZ7PWZBKBEREFF4QOYQDSY
I’m so sick of this nonsense. God had no love for the father who actually died, a man who reportedly attended church every Sunday? MTG’s comment is utterly offensive.
The last time Trump set foot in a church his hair caught fire such is the litany of the sins he’s accumulated over his lifetime. Even if there was a god, there’s no way he or she would’ve singled out that man to save while an innocent person died trying to shield his family from bullets.
https://theconversation.com/labor-and-albaneses-slide-continues-in-resolve-poll-as-major-parties-tied-233638
Player One says:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 9:50 am
Griff @ #98 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 9:29 am
“The question is why does “allowing third parties such as the Greens greater influence over legislated policy outcomes.” serve democracy better?”
Look at the votes parties get, and then look at the seats they end up with in parliament.
One way of dealing with this inequality would be MMP.
_______
I have. Your first preference isn’t a vote. It is a preference. You demonstrate ignorance of our preferential voting system. The question is whether the ignorance is a result of capability or design.
Carry on 😉
Griff @ #110 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 9:53 am
I’d ask you to read my post again, and then reflect on it. It may not do you much good, but I have some hope that you are merely a dedicated Labor Sandbagger, and not really as ill-informed on voting systems as your posts suggest.
‘Fess,
Did you see the You Tube Short of Moscow Marj waiting on the airport tarmac for Trump to arrive, and he just walked right past her without even acknowledging her presence? Poor little Trump groupie. 😀
VTC Et3e @ #111 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 9:52 am
Because of the Queensland effect. Which will make a hill of beans’ difference to the seat count. What is more important than that is the Teals/Independent vote share remains strong.
C@tmomma @ #113 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 10:02 am
LOL I missed it.
Kinda like Marco. He sold his soul and got humiliated for his efforts.
Shoebridge as Friar Tuck?
Faruqi as Maid Marion?
Confessions @ #116 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 10:06 am
Just like Mitt Romney, Tim Scott and Doug Burgum. 😐
This is another amusing morning; apparently its the Greens that are in a panic, and not Labor…
Yawn.
The idea of doing a DD to destroy the greens is up there with AUKUS as a dumb idea… so naturally theres at least a 50 percent chance Labor will try it
So it seems that “a midsummer night’s dream” was set in the seat of Melbourne, a village within Nottingham Forest perhaps.
Puck Bandt is certainly the catalyst for much confusion on the political stage with “the lovers” unable to discern “who loves who”.
Whether “puck” is a good or bad character has often been discussed by many a Shakespearean devotee.
Discuss.
What “three eyed character, with a red wig and an seemingly new piercing”?
Shakespeare never ages!
Robin Hood ?
Is ‘surfeit’ code for something else?
I recall President Zachary Taylor died of ‘a surfeit of plums & cream’ in 1850, opening the door for VP Millard Fillmore.
edit: “Cheeries and milk”, which leads on to:
Assassination theories
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zachary_Taylor
Good one Goll. I needed a laugh
I’ve just been watching last night’s 4Corners on a Trump presidency.
Scary, scary shit!!!!!!
Not long now.
PM Dutton and President Trump will get on pretty well I suppose.
BK @ #121 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 10:20 am
We never watch reality TV shows.
BK:
I watched it last night. Just horrifying.
Didnt your doctor not tell you 4 corners is bad for your constitution BK. Fancy a program with proper investigate journalism surviving this long. Its a bloody miracle I tell ya.
Make no mistake. Dutton is playing by Trump’s playbook.
This is a prime example of how Albanese – very much like Morrison before him – is just not proactive enough.
To be a stable, long term government you have to be out in front of every possible issue. Every minister, from the PM down, has to be spending time every day working out (and that means consulting widely and actually reading stuff that crosses your desk) what might become an issue tomorrow, or next month, or next year, and genuinely considering if they have done enough to prepare/head off the problems.
Sitting back until these things detonate is a terrible way to manage things. Again, it’s what Morrison of all people was notorious for. And if you’re not exceeding Morrison in the general atmosphere around government then you don’t deserve to be in government.
Fancy the Bandicoot blocking additional taxes on filthy rich superannuants.
What sort of Robin Hood gives people with hundreds of millions in Super a free pass through Sherwood Forest?
BK
I’ve just been watching last night’s 4Corners on a Trump presidency.
Scary, scary shit!!!!!!
I hope they send a copy to American Media !!!
This is a prime example of how Albanese – very much like Morrison before him – is just not proactive enough.
Can Albo win an Election on the tattooed back of John Setka?
A normal human reaction to the prospect would be “Please, no!” and
“Pass the sickbag!”.
I mean, c’mon, man, didn’t the ALP repudiate Stalinism?
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/labor-continues-double-speak-on-forestry-issues
Pueo @ #74 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 8:56 am
Great. ‘American Hitler’ as President. And American Goebbels as his Vice President. 😐
So is Bandt a bandicoot, or is he robin hood?
I cant keep up between all the Trump news, the democrats shitting the bed, and Labor doing a pretty impressive job of shitting theirs…
Jackol, your 100 percent correct; a party where the leader is not proactive is a major detriment to both the party and the country at large.
Haha, turns out they do have a cheap sign upgrade process.
Ok, I am getting to know the characters now and feel more comfortable with the slightly slapstick, old school Irish/Brit ham it up style. Derry Girls probably is the funniest TV comedy this century.
TK, you are certainly doing a favor to yourself
Mundo @ #122 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 10:22 am
Did you see the government on the news last night turning the oppositions hypocritical attack about the Russian spies back onto Dutton?
No neither did I. A shiver looking for a spine.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/07/16/polls-resolve-strategic-roy-morgan-essential-research-open-thread/comment-page-3/#comment-4327450, may he be in opp forever
Reports of dozens of casualties including multiple deaths in mosque shooting in Oman
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.5pts to 78.5pts, the 2nd weakest result since early Dec 2023. Confidence is currently 36pts lower than its pre-COVID 5y average:
https://x.com/ANZ_Research/status/1812993296085443057
Reading about the Classified Doc case atm. I wasnt convinced about AOCs effort to impeach Thomas, but now it is so clear this guy is completely unfit for the position. He effectively issued instruction to Cannon through his recent SCOTUS opinion on a matter almost completely unrelated.
After Trumps 3 appointments (one of which wasnt his to appoint), Biden needed to stack the court this term. He didnt. And it will bite.
Sandmansays:
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 at 10:25 am
Didnt your doctor not tell you 4 corners is bad for your constitution BK. Fancy a program with proper investigate journalism surviving this long. Its a bloody miracle I tell ya.
_____________________
Was more interested in the 7.30 report on how Lifestyle Communities are ripping off their elderly residents and how Australian Super (My personal Super fund) is up to their neck in it.
Badthinker @ #119 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 10:11 am
Badthinker @ #119 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 10:11 am
I thought it was cherries and milk but Taylor is thought to have contracted cholera at July 4 celebrations. Of course, some people with evil minds think he was poisoned because of his opposition to the Compromise of 1850. If he had survived and vetoed the Compromise would the Civil War have been prevented (or would it have occurred a decade earlier)
Vance is very anti woman. Not only is he much further to the right than Trump on abortion, but he is on record saying that women in violent marriages should stay in the home and the marriage for the sake of the children.
How will Republican leaning women feel about those kinds of comments?
‘Puck Bandt!’ sounds like an appropriate insult for the guy. 😀
Lordbain @ #136 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 10:12 am
I am a big fan of a few US comedies (Brooklyn99 eg) and a couple of oddball UK ones (Mighty Boosh). But for pure laugh out loud moments, Derry Girls has it.
“Da’s are just Ma enablers” has to be the funniest one liners. And it is wrapped in a hilarious segment with a Liam Neeson cameo.
Confessions @ #145 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 10:48 am
That’s the American frontier attitude I’m discussing. It’s a bit 19th century but it hasn’t really ever changed in some circles.
Confessions @ #147 Tuesday, July 16th, 2024 – 10:48 am
Mommy abandonment syndrome. His grandmother brought him up after his mother and her addiction issues overwhelmed her. So he pines for the ideal 1950s nuclear family…where the woman just had to shut up and take it.
ECONOMYCharted: Average Wage Growth in G7 Countries (2000-2022)
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-average-wage-growth-in-g7-countries-2000-2022/
No wonder Italians finally voted for a far-right party(used to be called neo-fascist) party of Meloni in the end.
Seriously Japan and Italy are screwed in many ways not just wrt wage rises
I hope they send a copy to American Media !!!
_____________
The weak bastards would never play it!